I know this is long, but I think it is a great story for any traders in the bitcoin market to read. I'm a realitivaly new trader with some experience and want to share it to you all and hope you learn something from it, so you guys don't make the same mistake as me. And you guys can comment if you have a different opinion about something or any good information to help out, what I think works and what you think works. Here at BitcoinMarkets were part of a family, so feel free to express what you think. In the end it's not about being bullish or bearish, its about having a larger net worth when the day is over with.
First let me start out back when I was a young teenager.
A very successful man, whom I know that is worth hundreds of millions told me before Lesson 1:"In stocks get out while you are ahead, make your 20-30% and get the hell out"
, he says with stocks he's an in and out kind of guy, make 30% and get out. I wish I took what he said to heart because for the past week I really didn't. And I hope you guys don't do the same as me. Now, if you are a professional trader and/or manage some multi million dollar fund it can be a different story because you know how to manage risks/rewards better than most.
A little bit of info about my self, I'm 20 years old, passed high school with a 2.5 GPA by doing just enough to get by. Now I'm working full time at a retail job which pays for my college, and I'm a part time student at a community college studying business administration and finance. For a while I have been interested in stocks I've been looking in to the stock market and trading quite a bit. I was successful with a few stocks like TSLA, MJNA, and LNCO. I like to look at stocks that are undervalued, oversold, or stocks or a product related to a stock about to get a lot of buzz, then and after extensive research, it's time to buy in, make a few bucks, then get out. Also I love stocks that generate a lot of buzz you've just got to buy in to them fast, like a bat out of hell before the sheep do or other possible investors, make that 15-30% and sell out. I bought in at TSLA at $100/share and sold at $120, I know I missed the rally to $190 but who cares. Bought into MJNA mid October of last year when it was trading around $0.07 because I knew some online pot activist and news online about pot being legalized in a few states with a new vallot for voters, and stuff is going to get crazy about legalizing marijuana this month. So I bought in before all the buz at $0.07 and sold at $0.40, now it's worth .10, I may invest into MJNA or some other stock related to marijuana again when some big pot buzz about legalizing in more states comes up in the news. The only stock that I am highly confident of me getting x2-x3 returns within the next 5-8 years going long is BAC, I don't plan on selling that for 5-8 years, it is highly undervalued and the price can triple or who knows maybe even more within the next 5-8 years due to increasing mortgage rates.
Right now I dream of running my own company or website service, being a very successful stock trader, and buy and rent out homes to generate enough passive income to live off of for retirement. I've always wanted to be an entrepreneur, as a child I would dig up plants and sell potted flowers for half dollars around my neighbourhood, In middle school I would put custom hacked firmwares on students PSPs I was charging $50 to hack each PS3, and you know almost everyone had a PS3 back in the day and everyone wanted me to mod it, I was always the man with the money in middle school. Then In High school I had a successful PlayStation3 moding business for hacking call of duty MW2, people would ship me their PS3s and I would transfer a few hacked files to it so they could run challenge lobbies and have infinite health, ammo etc. on multilayer, I was charging $250 per PS3 made enough money to pay for a car with a some money to still save over, heck I had a website, youtube and was dealing with multinational customers. At one point one of my videos got so much attention because it was on some huge gaming news website N4G.com titled "Modern Warfare 2 hacked to shreds on PS3" , within like 6 hours a video of mine on youtube went from 50,000 views to 1.5 million views. I thought yes! this is awesome more subscribers and people to do business with keep on complaining about people hacking on COD MW2 and sending out my video everywhere anyone who says that’s cool will go to my channel and find I hack PS3s for a service. Well it didn't turn out as planned, those millions of people flaged my video because "it was marked as spam" And my whole youtube account was taken down. It was only big for a while though because It was to hack COD MW2 for the PS3 and once that game was over, no more business. I have a youtube channel too which I haven't been really active on but need to start to do things because I'm a partner with them.http://www.youtube.com/useMcSpankn
Now back to bitcoin
To start out, I have known about bitcoin for a few years. I bought some bitcoin back when they were trading around $5 per coin in 2011 and used the coins to buy things that most of the bitcoin population did back in that time. I always thought, what if I invest $5,000 into bitcoin and one day I will be a millionaire with the rate of this coin going up. I simply told my self it is too risky and couldn't afford losing that money, so I didn't buy any coins. Around the same time a friend that called, telling me he was buying a $2,000 gaming computer, I told him instead of investing $2,000 in a stupid gaming computer which will keep you off task from college, invest that $2,000 in bitcoin if you have nothing else to do with it, one day you will thank me. Well today he ignores me and I think we have lost our friendship.
Fast forward to this year
Last month I told my self I'm not letting the same thing happen to me as it did a few years ago, missing out on huge potential profits. It's time to step into the Bitcoin market. I made an educated decision to buy because anything with potential profits in tech promotes a lot of buzz. Just look at what happened with twitter IPO was around $20, and now it is trading around $50. Also, with all of the talk in media and some of the Feds were pro on the notion of crypto currencies, so I decided to play low risk and spend $400 to buy coin last month @500/coin. I sold out when my investment was worth $800. Then I did some day trading on bitfinex. "Lets play with house money"(The money that you have won from trades. House Money Effect - profits from trades are more likely used to fund positions with higher risk), In a period of a few days I reached a high of $2,000 and in a matter of a few hours I was back to $400 because I went to work and wasn't able to close my position. (Lesson 2: "When day trading set a stop order to cover yourself from losing money and/or, if you aren't at the computer to watch charts its always a good idea to not have any position open in the highly volatile market of BTC."
) Then I thought "hmm, let me invest $5,600 into day trading and once I make a decent profit I will get out and transfer the money back to my bank". I've been pretty successful so far trading so lets invest some more money.
$5,600 is a moderate risk for me because It is about half of my savings, but that risk was worth it when I saw the major bear signal, bad news in China, and lots of selling. It's more of a moderate risk because fortunately I live with my parents, work full time retail (not making the best amount of money) but at least they pay for my community college, so $5,600 is a risk but I am working through college so I will make that back no matter what. And the money is to fund something that I will most likely profit from after making an executive decision that I would short bitcoin with those funds due to bad news in china, high selling, and many other factors.
I decided to send the $5,600 to bitfinex. Lesson 3: Don't risk what you can't afford to lose.
In my case I have a full time job, live with parents, have a car, no debt, money in checking and savings account, and have my college paid for by work. So I can afford to lose $5,600.
Right now my out of pocket cost on putting money into bitcoin trading is about $6000. I did a few trades and would bounce between $7,000 and back to $5,600 last week.
Now this week was a major bearish signal for me, I put $5,600 into a short order and kept shorting back and forth. Within 5-6 hours I tripled my money with a high of $18,000 yesterday. At that point I said "let me put that money in the bank, I'm already up over 300% of my investment", but my heart said "I've already made x3 my original investment, lets try to x3 $18,000, its house money any ways.(The money that you have won from trades. House Money Effect - profits from trades are more likely used to fund positions with higher risk). My medium term goal has been to make enough money for a down payment on a house to rent out at 20 years old. I decided I will keep trading, I knew that $18,000 may go back down but with the way bitcoin is lots of people got in believing they will make tons of money but when they realise the true value of coin is well bellow $500 everyone will panic and sell.** Lesson 4: "The bull rises slowly and the bear jumps out the window" ** Especially when BTC is in a bubble and the incompetent buyers who invest in coin see the price is getting dumped they will do the same. Drastically making the price drop because there is no support, rather than coming down slowly.
Within a few trades that $18,000 turned to $10,000. I took a break and waited until last nigh (Wednesday night/Thursday early morning) when trading was quiet but still moving downwards slowly. I have been following trading patterns and with bad news still in china to me another crash was bound to happen. Everyone last night was saying "oh we are going to crash again" and even looking at the charts that was another major bearish signal for me. Looking at the history on the charts compared to the sell off on Tuesday night, it looked like the same would happen Wednesday night. So I put that $10,000 back into short, next thing you know china is pumping out of no where, to me it was a bull trap. Well I was wrong and I ended up closing my position, and now I'm back to $5600. Still a few hundred dollars below my initial investment. Lesson 5: Don't get greedy and risk too much.
I tried to push my profits too far, without realizing I was already up 300% and should have reduced risk. I was trading at 4x leverage, After I made it to $18,000 I should have reduced my leverage or not put as much money into a position. Lesson 6: Don't listen to what any else says to make your decision, be independent when trading, because you never know who is swimming naked until the tide goes out.
I am pretty mad at myself because at the point of time before I put that short order in last night I was thinking, what if this is what china wants us to think, we have had a crash 2-3 times in a row. I'm upset today because not only did I lose out on even more potential profits but I am set back to less than my original investment. I though, what if they create a pump and make the market think we are heading "back to the moon" if you would say? I thought "no, that can't happen the market agrees we are bearish, and the value of bitcoin is based on the population that is involved in bitcoin and most of them are bearish." So, I'm sort of mad that I didn't take a long position because $10,000 would have taken a 76BTC long position at $520/btc, and now which would be worth $11,000-$15,000 or even more if I kept adding more BTC to my long position on the way up. And here's another lesson Lesson 7: Don't keep falling on the negatives and opportunities you didn't grab in the past thinking "what if" "I was going to do this but.." and "why didn't I do this", "if I did X" "I would have $100,000" etc."
So, what lesson did I learn and need to en-script it into my head? "Get out while you are ahead", and I believe you all should do the same, especially in this current highly manipulated and volatile market but some will still get lucky, now it is more like gambling. As of today no one knows what chinas true intentions are so I'm not trading for a while. And I believe for new traders that don't know much should stay out of trading until more news in china comes out, because who knows how long this pumping from china will continue and what if it sparks more people to buy in causing the price to sky rocket back to $1000, and at any time whales can dump because they’ve already made their profits, and know another crash is bound to happen so they will dump their coins and buy in when BTC hits another low, rinse and repeat. Lesson 8: do research on trading before trading bitcoin, or stocks." Here is a good source of information to learn about trading, different types of orders, and do and don’t s http://www.investopedia.com/active-trading/
If I ended up reading this stuff in the first place I would have more insight of how to trade and what to do in certain situations.
My day trading days with bitcoin are over for a few days because at this point either bitcoin is going to keep getting manipulated and out of no where whales may crash, especially after hitting a low 3 nights in a row. Now I am just lending USD on Bitfinex.com at 1% per day for a few days to calm down and reminisce on the positives of how I tripled my money. Also, I need to devise a plan on how to not go from having everything to going back to one thing.
I know some have questions about lending on Bitfinex.com. It is great because it is low risk and low reward, over time the money does add up. And it's a good way to let me study the market by still making guaranteed profits. I lent out $5600 for 3 days with an interest rate of 1% per day, after 3 days and minimal fees I will profit $151 off my 3 day investment of $5600. I love the fact all of the risk is on the trader not the lender. The trader needs money in his account to cover any loses he may make and the fees to be paid back to the lender.
How does lending work still? Well for example: Bob has $500 in his account and wants to borrow $500 to buy 1 bitcoin because he believes bitcoin will rise and wants take risk and try to double his profits. So Bob borrowed the $500 and is paying .1% interest on it daily. Now Bob has a total of $1000 to buy 1 bitcoin @ $1000. OMG Bitcoin rose to $1100 today, and Bob wants to close his position, he closed it and he gets back his initial investment of $500 + the profit he made on the trade which was $100 because his starting $1k turned into 1BTC that is now worth $1100. And I the lender get my $500 back + $5 paid in interest.
But wait, the lender didn't lose any money because Bob went positive, what if Bob goes negative? Won't I lose money? Well lets work this out. Same casenario Bob has $500 in his account and wants to borrow $500 to buy 1 bitcoin because he believes bitcoin will rise and wants take risk and try to double his profits. So Bob borrowed the $500 and is paying .1% interest on it daily. Now Bob has a total of $1000 to buy 1 bitcoin @ $1000. OMG Bitcoin is now at $500 and is about to reach $400, WTF my long position closed for no reason screw you bitfinex. Well if you read the side bar it says required net margin must be at least 65% or your position will close. Bobs networth went from $1k to $650, 65% of 1k is $650 so Bobs long position closed and he gets back his less than his initial investment, he gets back $150 and has to pay the $5 interest fee And I the lender get my $500 back + $5 paid in interest.
See lending and borrowing are that simple, I tried to simplify it some.
I hope you guys learned something from my experience within the last few months.
I still can't get over the fact I was up to $18,000, it's depressing because the money I had made was the amount of me working for almost 8 months. It's hard to get out of my head that I had that much money and it was gone in no time. I know another opportunity awaits. Maybe within a week or so after studying the market I will get back in with a new game plan, and sticking to new rules. Thinking optimistically, I tippled my money in a few hours by trading on bitfinex.com.
On a side note for those of you who do trade, Bitfinex.com is an exceptional platform allowing trading, and margin trading for taking short/long positions on BTC and LTC. They also let you lend/borrow LTC, BTC, and USD. If there is anyone who wants to trade on Bitfinex.com I do have a coupon code for 10% off trades for a month, use the code RAgkOOFTJL
Just remember "Get out while your ahead" and don't get too greedy like me if you trade.
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