Trading 212 Review - "Must Read" for new traders. Fees

Idk if this is allowed, but...

  1. troop
  2. shelf
  3. insure
  4. stall
  5. admiration
  6. aid
  7. suburb
  8. inappropriate
  9. owe
  10. extort
  11. lose
  12. assumption
  13. aunt
  14. spell
  15. crack
  16. bird
  17. trainer
  18. rub
  19. section
  20. arrange
  21. enhance
  22. faith
  23. reasonable
  24. unlawful
  25. excavate
  26. calm
  27. fat
  28. heavy
  29. resource
  30. cower
  31. tax
  32. exempt
  33. valid
  34. unlike
  35. board
  36. fog
  37. joke
  38. casualty
  39. zero
  40. anniversary
  41. variable
  42. cat
  43. stunning
  44. level
  45. navy
  46. privilege
  47. capital
  48. due
  49. dare
  50. fund
  51. enfix
  52. mile
  53. exploit
  54. flock
  55. situation
  56. poor
  57. photocopy
  58. water
  59. ally
  60. hypnothize
  61. activity
  62. rate
  63. spit
  64. widen
  65. help
  66. blade
  67. expertise
  68. card
  69. beginning
  70. brag
  71. shift
  72. marketing
  73. story
  74. slab
  75. exceed
  76. consumer
  77. approval
  78. rumor
  79. youth
  80. inject
  81. count
  82. neighbour
  83. closed
  84. discover
  85. forecast
  86. consultation
  87. latest
  88. pardon
  89. honor
  90. plot
  91. separate
  92. pot
  93. burst
  94. candidate
  95. freshman
  96. work
  97. approach
  98. class
  99. withdraw
  100. seminar
  101. demonstrate
  102. unique
  103. excess
  104. reveal
  105. paragraph
  106. thank
  107. technology
  108. dismissal
  109. divorce
  110. brand
  111. lecture
  112. agency
  113. chemistry
  114. suite
  115. left
  116. range
  117. right wing
  118. addition
  119. lunch
  120. weakness
  121. steak
  122. evening
  123. sale
  124. integrity
  125. handicap
  126. hero
  127. twitch
  128. denial
  129. flower
  130. shell
  131. hot
  132. chord
  133. attention
  134. sacred
  135. generate
  136. mislead
  137. few
  138. shop
  139. morsel
  140. useful
  141. voucher
  142. shoot
  143. ban
  144. bush
  145. favourite
  146. athlete
  147. discourage
  148. fitness
  149. soul
  150. dull
  151. avant-garde
  152. agile
  153. invasion
  154. quit
  155. residence
  156. factor
  157. pattern
  158. species
  159. angle
  160. prisoner
  161. acquisition
  162. chaos
  163. battlefield
  164. god
  165. rubbish
  166. enjoy
  167. public
  168. native
  169. deputy
  170. button
  171. disaster
  172. embrace
  173. compete
  174. note
  175. index
  176. quality
  177. print
  178. put
  179. intention
  180. cassette
  181. picture
  182. regret
  183. dribble
  184. sock
  185. decoration
  186. mail
  187. dish
  188. trouser
  189. happen
  190. strict
  191. switch
  192. surgeon
  193. retailer
  194. prefer
  195. jacket
  196. accompany
  197. mystery
  198. multimedia
  199. neglect
  200. marriage
  201. aware
  202. assume
  203. medieval
  204. fool
  205. sculpture
  206. singer
  207. ideology
  208. makeup
  209. forbid
  210. pound
  211. publish
  212. tray
  213. interactive
  214. coal
  215. gradient
  216. expectation
  217. alarm
  218. diamond
  219. refer
  220. whip
  221. devote
  222. advantage
  223. communist
  224. amuse
  225. plan
  226. plagiarize
  227. month
  228. percent
  229. obese
  230. colon
  231. kitchen
  232. conclusion
  233. constitutional
  234. indirect
  235. career
  236. debut
  237. notebook
  238. mayor
  239. chance
  240. Koran
  241. rider
  242. bin
  243. quota
  244. cord
  245. precision
  246. sulphur
  247. prize
  248. powder
  249. breathe
  250. emphasis
  251. squash
  252. stretch
  253. root
  254. thinker
  255. inquiry
  256. live
  257. flourish
  258. disability
  259. circumstance
  260. temperature
  261. rest
  262. age
  263. memorandum
  264. cluster
  265. opposition
  266. gap
  267. borrow
  268. bullet
  269. injury
  270. moving
  271. panel
  272. atmosphere
  273. dip
  274. paint
  275. attraction
  276. childish
  277. giant
  278. rocket
  279. set
  280. leave
  281. demonstrator
  282. east
  283. orientation
  284. marsh
  285. solo
  286. appeal
  287. chimney
  288. funny
  289. well
  290. confront
  291. morning
  292. band
  293. screen
  294. square
  295. voter
  296. wage
  297. celebration
  298. day
  299. break down
  300. half
  301. annual
  302. slap
  303. page
  304. soprano
  305. contradiction
  306. gaffe
  307. ladder
  308. frown
  309. classify
  310. stir
  311. staircase
  312. gate
  313. paradox
  314. continuation
  315. rain
  316. braid
  317. secular
  318. broadcast
  319. producer
  320. pour
  321. grounds
  322. golf
  323. center
  324. improvement
  325. appoint
  326. warning
  327. dragon
  328. management
  329. architect
  330. diagram
  331. transparent
  332. rugby
  333. coverage
  334. straw
  335. like
  336. twin
  337. sea
  338. temporary
  339. outlook
  340. folklore
  341. rotten
  342. pasture
  343. traction
  344. psychology
  345. vein
  346. mirror
  347. heat
  348. knowledge
  349. goat
  350. proclaim
  351. withdrawal
  352. chauvinist
  353. background
  354. fossil
  355. behavior
  356. shout
  357. rhythm
  358. authorise
  359. fall
  360. security
  361. fascinate
  362. splurge
  363. option
  364. fist
  365. banana
  366. training
  367. hypothesize
  368. radiation sickness
  369. hostile
  370. pastel
  371. mainstream
  372. constraint
  373. bake
  374. defend
  375. season
  376. triangle
  377. herd
  378. see
  379. reference
  380. cow
  381. grace
  382. clique
  383. porter
  384. site
  385. product
  386. canvas
  387. pier
  388. pig
  389. cooperative
  390. disclose
  391. machinery
  392. slot
  393. random
  394. kick
  395. great
  396. spread
  397. knot
  398. momentum
  399. electron
  400. shock
  401. crew
  402. sport
  403. sound
  404. introduction
  405. lane
  406. disappoint
  407. beach
  408. opponent
  409. fireplace
  410. animal
  411. oven
  412. bracket
  413. horn
  414. cup
  415. Mars
  416. branch
  417. cathedral
  418. job
  419. champagne
  420. justify
  421. nationalist
  422. year
  423. dinner
  424. interference
  425. technique
  426. cool
  427. lift
  428. trial
  429. cover
  430. valley
  431. election
  432. director
  433. fuel
  434. comedy
  435. retired
  436. respect
  437. biography
  438. mercy
  439. correction
  440. toll
  441. declaration
  442. integration
  443. dream
  444. sign
  445. infection
  446. revoke
  447. deficit
  448. weight
  449. contain
  450. take
  451. settle
  452. projection
  453. price
  454. overall
  455. thesis
  456. explicit
  457. lodge
  458. compose
  459. cute
  460. narrow
  461. labour
  462. confine
  463. proposal
  464. feminist
  465. arrogant
  466. bean
  467. tooth
  468. polite
  469. incentive
  470. cook
  471. highlight
  472. trunk
  473. suggest
  474. teach
  475. entertain
  476. mind
  477. brown
  478. biology
  479. grandmother
  480. monster
  481. dump
  482. man
  483. credit
  484. vacuum
  485. socialist
  486. needle
  487. spirit
  488. baby
  489. network
  490. departure
  491. miracle
  492. opera
  493. resort
  494. funeral
  495. protect
  496. bank
  497. record
  498. real
  499. preparation
  500. student
  501. capture
  502. boot
  503. gloom
  504. crouch
  505. method
  506. portrait
  507. correspond
  508. suntan
  509. start
  510. chart
  511. coup
  512. grip
  513. riot
  514. affair
  515. president
  516. rear
  517. advertising
  518. unity
  519. cheek
  520. thrust
  521. channel
  522. number
  523. route
  524. reverse
  525. literacy
  526. craft
  527. orthodox
  528. provoke
  529. assault
  530. abnormal
  531. dry
  532. productive
  533. vague
  534. parameter
  535. football
  536. grateful
  537. contrast
  538. beam
  539. testify
  540. dog
  541. slippery
  542. loyalty
  543. outline
  544. trade
  545. conviction
  546. lie
  547. infect
  548. profound
  549. relief
  550. negative
  551. landscape
  552. contempt
  553. tropical
  554. bang
  555. criminal
  556. elapse
  557. hope
  558. yard
  559. rich
  560. television
  561. joystick
  562. medal
  563. myth
  564. crackpot
  565. elbow
  566. visible
  567. hunting
  568. essay
  569. fox
  570. woman
  571. joint
  572. recognize
  573. haircut
  574. bow
  575. conference
  576. deport
  577. barrel
  578. episode
  579. miserable
  580. sell
  581. gas pedal
  582. arrangement
  583. utter
  584. learn
  585. gold
  586. integrated
  587. representative
  588. pin
  589. sister
  590. descent
  591. stereotype
  592. banner
  593. consensus
  594. replacement
  595. account
  596. scene
  597. serious
  598. sandwich
  599. depend
  600. defendant
  601. population
  602. secretary
  603. heart
  604. spontaneous
  605. embarrassment
  606. implication
  607. flat
  608. subject
  609. hallway
  610. throne
  611. lineage
  612. theft
  613. feedback
  614. infinite
  615. score
  616. install
  617. lonely
  618. tin
  619. illness
  620. theorist
  621. abridge
  622. filter
  623. headquarters
  624. parade
  625. audience
  626. official
  627. spoil
  628. rib
  629. familiar
  630. indulge
  631. injection
  632. vessel
  633. screw
  634. hurt
  635. mug
  636. back
  637. log
  638. west
  639. assembly
  640. applied
  641. tie
  642. jury
  643. storage
  644. mechanical
  645. rent
  646. bend
  647. lily
  648. system
  649. hold
  650. contract
  651. unfortunate
  652. matrix
  653. home
  654. response
  655. eyebrow
  656. confuse
  657. aluminium
  658. artificial
  659. result
  660. permanent
  661. ensure
  662. collection
  663. settlement
  664. content
  665. glue
  666. market
  667. explain
  668. worm
  669. cigarette
  670. allocation
  671. brush
  672. calculation
  673. empire
  674. sweater
  675. camera
  676. answer
  677. harbor
  678. sun
  679. sip
  680. fastidious
  681. fight
  682. misplace
  683. passion
  684. cut
  685. grow
  686. treaty
  687. qualification
  688. clear
  689. pleasure
  690. bulb
  691. pony
  692. failure
  693. entertainment
  694. able
  695. physics
  696. brink
  697. concern
  698. rice
  699. ride
  700. conceive
  701. gradual
  702. achieve
  703. earthflax
  704. responsible
  705. intelligence
  706. glow
  707. ministry
  708. duck
  709. professor
  710. deer
  711. beef
  712. child
  713. microphone
  714. judge
  715. abortion
  716. pocket
  717. look
  718. manual
  719. exclude
  720. mathematics
  721. stream
  722. civilization
  723. characteristic
  724. appreciate
  725. listen
  726. exercise
  727. explosion
  728. bedroom
  729. sausage
  730. write
  731. pay
  732. shine
  733. different
  734. consideration
  735. ambition
  736. program
  737. ballot
  738. wife
  739. interface
  740. make
  741. orchestra
  742. frozen
  743. fine
  744. lifestyle
  745. bet
  746. reservoir
  747. sweet
  748. move
  749. fragrant
  750. trance
  751. reproduction
  752. tease
  753. develop
  754. breeze
  755. basic
  756. minimum
  757. crutch
  758. depart
  759. privacy
  760. continuous
  761. flu
  762. opinion
  763. salad
  764. restrain
  765. muggy
  766. cage
  767. quarrel
  768. motorist
  769. acceptance
  770. wardrobe
  771. pill
  772. approve
  773. depressed
  774. rebel
  775. notice
  776. orgy
  777. unpleasant
  778. have
  779. rotate
  780. tough
  781. gossip
  782. ring
  783. software
  784. pioneer
  785. wire
  786. increase
  787. presidency
  788. intensify
  789. pop
  790. width
  791. wheat
  792. diplomat
  793. launch
  794. realism
  795. collar
  796. courage
  797. rotation
  798. guide
  799. scratch
  800. love
  801. definition
  802. low
  803. nose
  804. portion
  805. claim
  806. partnership
  807. automatic
  808. building
  809. bathtub
  810. good
  811. expansion
  812. peak
  813. normal
  814. displace
  815. serve
  816. potential
  817. publication
  818. foundation
  819. contemporary
  820. star
  821. feeling
  822. bundle
  823. shallow
  824. monarch
  825. rehearsal
  826. carry
  827. upset
  828. recovery
  829. motorcycle
  830. adviser
  831. profile
  832. institution
  833. snarl
  834. south
  835. fit
  836. language
  837. assessment
  838. defeat
  839. seal
  840. halt
  841. fruit
  842. unaware
  843. wash
  844. deliver
  845. clarify
  846. migration
  847. berry
  848. history
  849. meadow
  850. just
  851. texture
  852. guideline
  853. layer
  854. light
  855. lease
  856. nonremittal
  857. penetrate
  858. think
  859. visual
  860. remunerate
  861. style
  862. dedicate
  863. ankle
  864. remain
  865. variant
  866. ritual
  867. respectable
  868. favorable
  869. liberty
  870. outlet
  871. design
  872. Sunday
  873. preoccupation
  874. bus
  875. edition
  876. bloody
  877. offense
  878. carrot
  879. march
  880. contraction
  881. cabin
  882. dangerous
  883. blind
  884. waiter
  885. ethnic
  886. sweat
  887. musical
  888. swing
  889. lace
  890. parallel
  891. computing
  892. notorious
  893. compound
  894. cake
  895. absolute
  896. original
  897. agent
  898. banish
  899. beer
  900. fever
  901. evaluate
  902. ostracize
  903. prescription
  904. sugar
  905. lead
  906. bring
  907. mixture
  908. revive
  909. hard
  910. classroom
  911. salt
  912. excuse
  913. fly
  914. clerk
  915. follow
  916. floor
  917. cave
  918. throat
  919. railcar
  920. owner
  921. store
  922. quotation
  923. related
  924. node
  925. steep
  926. depression
  927. spite
  928. trench
  929. compromise
  930. laser
  931. bitch
  932. bathroom
  933. tune
  934. top
  935. positive
  936. sequence
  937. grave
  938. thoughtful
  939. bury
  940. expenditure
  941. skilled
  942. crusade
  943. tired
  944. tycoon
  945. tent
  946. frame
  947. wall
  948. birthday
  949. feast
  950. concession
  951. flour
  952. journal
  953. safety
  954. fate
  955. chocolate
  956. scheme
  957. present
  958. embark
  959. manage
  960. operation
  961. flavor
  962. tank
  963. activate
  964. candle
  965. dance
  966. reflect
  967. tactic
  968. huge
  969. investigation
  970. arena
  971. size
  972. leadership
  973. return
  974. rough
  975. destruction
  976. examination
  977. relationship
  978. viable
  979. color-blind
  980. element
  981. offend
  982. poem
  983. railroad
  984. crisis
  985. maze
  986. debt
  987. blame
  988. context
  989. oak
  990. kid
  991. deprivation
  992. minute
  993. critic
  994. solve
  995. weed
  996. customer
  997. gasp
  998. operational
  999. expression
  1000. traffic
  1001. blast
  1002. incapable
  1003. academy
  1004. literature
  1005. refund
  1006. blank
  1007. qualified
  1008. enter
  1009. shelter
  1010. delete
  1011. escape
  1012. sex
  1013. perfume
  1014. report
  1015. bubble
  1016. change
  1017. noble
  1018. lamp
  1019. location
  1020. recruit
  1021. pile
  1022. perception
  1023. freighter
  1024. omission
  1025. flag
  1026. attract
  1027. relative
  1028. service
  1029. persist
  1030. quest
  1031. information
  1032. pavement
  1033. tight
  1034. mother
  1035. radiation
  1036. theater
  1037. economy
  1038. offer
  1039. honest
  1040. sunrise
  1041. pledge
  1042. go
  1043. bind
  1044. burn
  1045. absorb
  1046. autonomy
  1047. restoration
  1048. row
  1049. dose
  1050. doubt
  1051. observer
  1052. city
  1053. grandfather
  1054. gesture
  1055. snack
  1056. composer
  1057. administration
  1058. complain
  1059. build
  1060. tick
  1061. tumour
  1062. invite
  1063. pneumonia
  1064. battle
  1065. discriminate
  1066. rally
  1067. smooth
  1068. constitution
  1069. economist
  1070. jewel
  1071. fuss
  1072. find
  1073. compensation
  1074. strength
  1075. roof
  1076. prosecute
  1077. employ
  1078. retirement
  1079. demonstration
  1080. pupil
  1081. uncle
  1082. precedent
  1083. magnitude
  1084. graze
  1085. culture
  1086. equinox
  1087. professional
  1088. similar
  1089. perforate
  1090. printer
  1091. rainbow
  1092. model
  1093. immune
  1094. fare
  1095. still
  1096. damage
  1097. stitch
  1098. kettle
  1099. equip
  1100. please
  1101. mention
  1102. laborer
  1103. meet
  1104. environment
  1105. mourning
  1106. theory
  1107. cottage
  1108. custody
  1109. concrete
  1110. crime
  1111. ecstasy
  1112. philosophy
  1113. dive
  1114. double
  1115. photography
  1116. player
  1117. redundancy
  1118. treat
  1119. air
  1120. census
  1121. obstacle
  1122. word
  1123. flatware
  1124. suitcase
  1125. skeleton
  1126. hen
  1127. elect
  1128. pigeon
  1129. threshold
  1130. bloodshed
  1131. jockey
  1132. ferry
  1133. prevent
  1134. asset
  1135. speed
  1136. achievement
  1137. plane
  1138. bacon
  1139. pepper
  1140. ball
  1141. mean
  1142. partner
  1143. ignorance
  1144. guard
  1145. shaft
  1146. domestic
  1147. prevalence
  1148. tire
  1149. resolution
  1150. variation
  1151. kidney
  1152. safe
  1153. threat
  1154. coat
  1155. slump
  1156. incongruous
  1157. tournament
  1158. decorative
  1159. young
  1160. swallow
  1161. torture
  1162. jet
  1163. exhibition
  1164. assignment
  1165. try
  1166. mobile
  1167. despair
  1168. stroll
  1169. folk
  1170. archive
  1171. belief
  1172. private
  1173. minister
  1174. brain
  1175. hour
  1176. add
  1177. video
  1178. stand
  1179. revolution
  1180. park
  1181. requirement
  1182. trolley
  1183. inspire
  1184. sword
  1185. clock
  1186. vegetable
  1187. sodium
  1188. offspring
  1189. council
  1190. mutation
  1191. circle
  1192. extent
  1193. butterfly
  1194. correspondence
  1195. height
  1196. form
  1197. lot
  1198. watch
  1199. outside
  1200. dimension
  1201. grain
  1202. slant
  1203. systematic
  1204. value
  1205. color
  1206. corpse
  1207. guilt
  1208. say
  1209. empirical
  1210. strip
  1211. arrow
  1212. update
  1213. combination
  1214. quarter
  1215. understanding
  1216. buffet
  1217. deal
  1218. deadly
  1219. exchange
  1220. past
  1221. arise
  1222. ballet
  1223. grind
  1224. insistence
  1225. fresh
  1226. item
  1227. likely
  1228. base
  1229. slice
  1230. trip
  1231. patient
  1232. stay
  1233. window
  1234. meal
  1235. amputate
  1236. movie
  1237. staff
  1238. impact
  1239. fragment
  1240. warn
  1241. feel
  1242. skin
  1243. dressing
  1244. cell phone
  1245. radio
  1246. exploration
  1247. hill
  1248. nun
  1249. combine
  1250. tempt
  1251. nominate
  1252. angel
  1253. forge
  1254. wear out
  1255. groan
  1256. slam
  1257. ghostwriter
  1258. margin
  1259. genetic
  1260. scenario
  1261. carriage
  1262. sacrifice
  1263. quaint
  1264. criticism
  1265. road
  1266. copy
  1267. endorse
  1268. bee
  1269. disposition
  1270. accessible
  1271. hang
  1272. embox
  1273. press
  1274. lack
  1275. difficulty
  1276. conglomerate
  1277. patent
  1278. fantasy
  1279. pumpkin
  1280. provincial
  1281. substitute
  1282. dairy
  1283. proportion
  1284. duty
  1285. absence
  1286. tip
  1287. dirty
  1288. appear
  1289. graduate
  1290. overcharge
  1291. conservation
  1292. castle
  1293. rage
  1294. drift
  1295. fraud
  1296. create
  1297. looting
  1298. compliance
  1299. silver
  1300. tablet
  1301. egg
  1302. essential
  1303. buttocks
  1304. muscle
  1305. realize
  1306. grudge
  1307. mosquito
  1308. federation
  1309. crossing
  1310. driver
  1311. reason
  1312. heel
  1313. aspect
  1314. raw
  1315. jump
  1316. date
  1317. cream
  1318. appendix
  1319. wriggle
  1320. request
  1321. hook
  1322. shy
  1323. isolation
  1324. innocent
  1325. harm
  1326. nerve
  1327. piano
  1328. project
  1329. display
  1330. remedy
  1331. father
  1332. engagement
  1333. object
  1334. sow
  1335. anxiety
  1336. get
  1337. snow
  1338. corner
  1339. craftsman
  1340. apology
  1341. unfair
  1342. tissue
  1343. pawn
  1344. food
  1345. girlfriend
  1346. tone
  1347. behave
  1348. restless
  1349. tumble
  1350. consider
  1351. modest
  1352. specimen
  1353. copper
  1354. snap
  1355. concentration
  1356. premature
  1357. sticky
  1358. echo
  1359. appetite
  1360. sustain
  1361. imagine
  1362. bread
  1363. snail
  1364. eternal
  1365. thirsty
  1366. silk
  1367. courtship
  1368. soup
  1369. speaker
  1370. earthwax
  1371. tape
  1372. tear
  1373. main
  1374. exception
  1375. sharp
  1376. addicted
  1377. vain
  1378. satellite
  1379. cinema
  1380. straight
  1381. confession
  1382. parking
  1383. cultivate
  1384. crosswalk
  1385. bottom
  1386. linger
  1387. edge
  1388. investment
  1389. ghost
  1390. deep
  1391. pat
  1392. habitat
  1393. money
  1394. recycle
  1395. crown
  1396. norm
  1397. high
  1398. impulse
  1399. conventional
  1400. afford
  1401. reduce
  1402. participate
  1403. breakdown
  1404. laboratory
  1405. multiply
  1406. glasses
  1407. single
  1408. jam
  1409. helpless
  1410. liberal
  1411. cart
  1412. AIDS
  1413. negotiation
  1414. race
  1415. guerrilla
  1416. absent
  1417. pest
  1418. advance
  1419. genuine
  1420. eavesdrop
  1421. remark
  1422. wreck
  1423. leftovers
  1424. ruin
  1425. wander
  1426. average
  1427. economic
  1428. polish
  1429. treasurer
  1430. door
  1431. authority
  1432. feature
  1433. share
  1434. imposter
  1435. terminal
  1436. construct
  1437. irony
  1438. want
  1439. compartment
  1440. pillow
  1441. green
  1442. wrap
  1443. chain
  1444. resist
  1445. fool around
  1446. soldier
  1447. sight
  1448. efflux
  1449. bounce
  1450. reproduce
  1451. concentrate
  1452. constant
  1453. snatch
  1454. analysis
  1455. assertive
  1456. passage
  1457. pure
  1458. verdict
  1459. execute
  1460. pride
  1461. conscience
  1462. rescue
  1463. recommend
  1464. measure
  1465. decrease
  1466. deficiency
  1467. onion
  1468. healthy
  1469. taxi
  1470. scholar
  1471. car
  1472. clean
  1473. earwax
  1474. lawyer
  1475. charter
  1476. distort
  1477. vegetation
  1478. trivial
  1479. dictionary
  1480. survival
  1481. fur
  1482. computer
  1483. differ
  1484. drum
  1485. comfortable
  1486. squeeze
  1487. corn
  1488. X-ray
  1489. governor
  1490. relax
  1491. swear
  1492. gallery
  1493. promote
  1494. chalk
  1495. government
  1496. lend
  1497. solid
  1498. ice cream
  1499. emergency
  1500. drawing
  1501. talented
  1502. heir
  1503. robot
  1504. rock
  1505. crude
  1506. hut
  1507. figure
  1508. crowd
  1509. bulletin
  1510. eagle
  1511. hiccup
  1512. attic
  1513. locate
  1514. disappointment
  1515. ash
  1516. diplomatic
  1517. scrap
  1518. articulate
  1519. club
  1520. forum
  1521. protection
  1522. helmet
  1523. constituency
  1524. regular
  1525. mood
  1526. password
  1527. yearn
  1528. bottle
  1529. gas
  1530. gene
  1531. cereal
  1532. hear
  1533. dress
  1534. banquet
  1535. pack
  1536. wording
  1537. comprehensive
  1538. affect
  1539. novel
  1540. overview
  1541. default
  1542. prayer
  1543. express
  1544. necklace
  1545. repetition
  1546. tasty
  1547. inflate
  1548. swipe
  1549. coffee
  1550. perceive
  1551. peanut
  1552. clothes
  1553. research
  1554. confidence
  1555. deny
  1556. morale
  1557. license
  1558. vision
  1559. houseplant
  1560. unanimous
  1561. tiptoe
  1562. directory
  1563. cousin
  1564. hand
  1565. merit
  1566. game
  1567. girl
  1568. belly
  1569. heaven
  1570. satisfied
  1571. overwhelm
  1572. pie
  1573. deprive
  1574. tolerate
  1575. disagreement
  1576. payment
  1577. last
  1578. petty
  1579. coach
  1580. lover
  1581. horse
  1582. wolf
  1583. paper
  1584. package
  1585. ordinary
  1586. beard
  1587. jurisdiction
  1588. exemption
  1589. practical
  1590. garage
  1591. revival
  1592. plain
  1593. virus
  1594. noise
  1595. volcano
  1596. nightmare
  1597. judicial
  1598. neck
  1599. supply
  1600. bald
  1601. physical
  1602. magnetic
  1603. enemy
  1604. linen
  1605. baseball
  1606. rabbit
  1607. shed
  1608. boom
  1609. econobox
  1610. digital
  1611. slave
  1612. snake
  1613. inflation
  1614. amber
  1615. simplicity
  1616. tidy
  1617. sanctuary
  1618. salvation
  1619. rob
  1620. jelly
  1621. expose
  1622. school
  1623. whole
  1624. debate
  1625. junior
  1626. researcher
  1627. skip
  1628. forward
  1629. hay
  1630. shake
  1631. electronics
  1632. spend
  1633. undermine
  1634. memory
  1635. college
  1636. river
  1637. hell
  1638. distortion
  1639. timber
  1640. excavation
  1641. fun
  1642. apathy
  1643. helicopter
  1644. frank
  1645. century
  1646. offset
  1647. anger
  1648. clash
  1649. brick
  1650. decade
  1651. reckless
  1652. transition
  1653. racism
  1654. feminine
  1655. pit
  1656. vertical
  1657. crop
  1658. application
  1659. soar
  1660. wine
  1661. consumption
  1662. horror
  1663. liability
  1664. salesperson
  1665. horseshoe
  1666. image
  1667. tense
  1668. impound
  1669. deteriorate
  1670. influence
  1671. difficult
  1672. distant
  1673. turn
  1674. damn
  1675. brave
  1676. accept
  1677. eaux
  1678. calorie
  1679. equal
  1680. power
  1681. arm
  1682. guitar
  1683. relate
  1684. soil
  1685. waterfall
  1686. origin
  1687. citizen
  1688. basis
  1689. feed
  1690. penny
  1691. possibility
  1692. provision
  1693. strikebreaker
  1694. retire
  1695. harvest
  1696. carbon
  1697. sink
  1698. keep
  1699. team
  1700. haunt
  1701. dollar
  1702. coerce
  1703. hemisphere
  1704. veteran
  1705. plant
  1706. surprise
  1707. loan
  1708. ancestor
  1709. passive
  1710. mole
  1711. view
  1712. friendly
  1713. selection
  1714. suffering
  1715. shot
  1716. enlarge
  1717. harsh
  1718. desire
  1719. revenge
  1720. cancel
  1721. foreigner
  1722. fashion
  1723. agreement
  1724. cash
  1725. handy
  1726. possible
  1727. detail
  1728. TRUE
  1729. cotton
  1730. truck
  1731. white
  1732. magazine
  1733. punch
  1734. inhibition
  1735. coincide
  1736. ex
  1737. acquit
  1738. global
  1739. chew
  1740. foot
  1741. cope
  1742. witness
  1743. abundant
  1744. miner
  1745. convert
  1746. decide
  1747. diet
  1748. disagree
  1749. reject
  1750. occasion
  1751. unit
  1752. field
  1753. effect
  1754. pity
  1755. division
  1756. dine
  1757. demand
  1758. attractive
  1759. party
  1760. advocate
  1761. creation
  1762. alive
  1763. stamp
  1764. frequency
  1765. tender
  1766. predict
  1767. curtain
  1768. studio
  1769. shower
  1770. seem
  1771. statement
  1772. cherry
  1773. galaxy
  1774. stadium
  1775. notion
  1776. fax
  1777. mutual
  1778. impress
  1779. satisfaction
  1780. smell
  1781. fling
  1782. restaurant
  1783. budget
  1784. trap
  1785. danger
  1786. hurl
  1787. spy
  1788. dependence
  1789. national
  1790. museum
  1791. plaintiff
  1792. even
  1793. hole
  1794. harmony
  1795. matter
  1796. agony
  1797. major
  1798. mold
  1799. file
  1800. accident
  1801. artist
  1802. attack
  1803. penalty
  1804. guest
  1805. subway
  1806. mature
  1807. spray
  1808. symptom
  1809. certain
  1810. slip
  1811. established
  1812. revolutionary
  1813. reaction
  1814. innovation
  1815. cell
  1816. patrol
  1817. negligence
  1818. runner
  1819. undertake
  1820. coin
  1821. meat
  1822. plaster
  1823. strong
  1824. list
  1825. extract
  1826. speech
  1827. disorder
  1828. shoulder
  1829. herb
  1830. border
  1831. question
  1832. finger
  1833. estimate
  1834. dismiss
  1835. obscure
  1836. sit
  1837. fluctuation
  1838. siege
  1839. challenge
  1840. win
  1841. harmful
  1842. indication
  1843. formal
  1844. poetry
  1845. rehabilitation
  1846. topple
  1847. captain
  1848. preference
  1849. carpet
  1850. evolution
  1851. chicken
  1852. ideal
  1853. ethics
  1854. business
  1855. veil
  1856. mosaic
  1857. disgrace
  1858. smash
  1859. hospitality
  1860. breakfast
  1861. hypothesis
  1862. cause
  1863. seat
  1864. scale
  1865. copyright
  1866. worth
  1867. instal
  1868. doll
  1869. intermediate
  1870. fisherman
  1871. clinic
  1872. determine
  1873. fear
  1874. employee
  1875. save
  1876. priority
  1877. fair
  1878. country
  1879. instrument
  1880. resident
  1881. hotdog
  1882. freeze
  1883. rack
  1884. mud
  1885. pierce
  1886. pool
  1887. welcome
  1888. duke
  1889. threaten
  1890. material
  1891. purpose
  1892. flow
  1893. insight
  1894. indoor
  1895. lick
  1896. pleasant
  1897. nut
  1898. translate
  1899. stop
  1900. knee
  1901. executrix
  1902. throw
  1903. mistreat
  1904. organize
  1905. length
  1906. attitude
  1907. benefit
  1908. gravity
  1909. chorus
  1910. dividend
  1911. virgin
  1912. seize
  1913. lump
  1914. domination
  1915. concept
  1916. prospect
  1917. article
  1918. accent
  1919. test
  1920. state
  1921. bold
  1922. accountant
  1923. sector
  1924. falsify
  1925. care
  1926. elaborate
  1927. command
  1928. body
  1929. charity
  1930. fire
  1931. circulate
  1932. dead
  1933. rush
  1934. burial
  1935. mushroom
  1936. island
  1937. queue
  1938. proud
  1939. stumble
  1940. vigorous
  1941. legislature
  1942. symbol
  1943. tragedy
  1944. elite
  1945. term
  1946. brake
  1947. incident
  1948. safari
  1949. convulsion
  1950. sweep
  1951. meeting
  1952. cheque
  1953. mask
  1954. lamb
  1955. degree
  1956. budge
  1957. miss
  1958. willpower
  1959. bridge
  1960. countryside
  1961. strain
  1962. insert
  1963. motivation
  1964. reactor
  1965. credit card
  1966. reward
  1967. smile
  1968. worry
  1969. salmon
  1970. extension
  1971. slow
  1972. thaw
  1973. science
  1974. experience
  1975. favor
  1976. stock
  1977. glory
  1978. menu
  1979. thick
  1980. pray
  1981. deserve
  1982. hilarious
  1983. first-hand
  1984. murder
  1985. superintendent
  1986. improve
  1987. distinct
  1988. sleep
  1989. chapter
  1990. limited
  1991. week
  1992. character
  1993. communication
  1994. franchise
  1995. cooperation
  1996. issue
  1997. problem
  1998. highway
  1999. posture
  2000. mine
submitted by Trap_17 to OneWordBan [link] [comments]

The Mystery Millionaire Who Haunted London’s Insider-Trading Trial

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-07-03/the-mystery-millionaire-who-haunted-london-s-insider-trading-trial July 2, 2019, 9:01 PM PDT
When Alshair Fiyaz, a wealthy businessman with a shaggy mane of hair, walked into the garden of London’s Four Seasons Hotel on a pleasant June evening five years ago, he had no idea he was being followed. He was there to meet Walid Choucair, a trader wearing a hoodie who collected “Star Wars” memorabilia and expensive guitars. Neither one noticed an officer from the National Crime Agency stick a recording device in the greenery.

The investigator was tracking Fiyaz in connection with an insider-trading probe being conducted by the NCA, the U.K. equivalent of the FBI. Choucair wasn’t a suspect, and the officer didn’t know who he was before planting the bug. But after the meeting, the officer followed Choucair to an apartment near the Royal Albert Hall on the edge of Hyde Park.

That fateful encounter at the Four Seasons, recounted in court, would turn Choucair, whose life was an adrenaline-charged chase for information about big deals, into Europe’s most high-profile insider-trading defendant. And his two trials—the first ended last year in a hung jury, the second with a conviction last week—opened a window on a loose network of traders from London to Dubai as well as a multinational investigation into suspected insider trading.

Fiyaz’s name, and details of the Four Seasons meeting, came up frequently at the trials. Choucair said he often discussed trades with Fiyaz, who was so successful he’d bought an 86-meter yacht and a polo club. The two had partied at Tramp, a London club frequented by rock stars and royals, where they spent thousands of dollars on three-liter bottles of Cristal. Financial institutions alerted U.K. regulators about Fiyaz’s trading 71 times in 2013 and 2014, Choucair’s lawyer told the court, citing information from the regulator. Yet Fiyaz wasn’t in the dock. He’s never been charged with a crime and denies any wrongdoing.

But evidence, testimony and legal filings from Choucair’s trials, as well as interviews with traders, their friends, lawyers and people close to the investigation suggest Fiyaz may have been part of a network that cultivated ties to bankers, shared tips via burner phones to avoid detection, fed information to journalists and often secretly monitored each other’s trades. Using their own money or funds from wealthy associates, they made tens of millions of dollars betting on stocks just before a news splash popped the share price. In 2014, the core group of about a dozen traders made more than $100 million, a figure arrived at by adding up figures in legal filings and conversations with traders.

Regulators in France and the U.K., where abnormal trading occurs ahead of more than one in five takeovers, spotted the uncanny timing of transactions by Fiyaz, Choucair and others. In addition to Choucair and Fabiana Abdel-Malek, a UBS Group AG compliance officer convicted at the same trial of providing him with information from a confidential bank database, seven men, including Geneva-based trader Alexis Kuperfis and former Societe Generale SA banker Stephane Fima, have been charged with insider trading in France. All have contested the charges. Another trader was arrested in Serbia in November on a U.S. warrant that alleged he committed securities fraud and was extradited in May, Serbian court officials confirmed. U.S. prosecutors are working with European counterparts on their own probe, Bloomberg News reported last month.

A spokeswoman for Fiyaz said in an email that he has “never been questioned, charged or convicted of insider trading or financial misconduct of any kind in the U.K. or any jurisdiction.” She said the suspicious activity reports related to only 27 trades and were triggered because financial institutions are required to flag transactions when a trader makes more than 10,000 pounds ($13,000) a day, and that Fiyaz hasn’t been the subject of any adverse regulatory findings. Loic Henriot, a lawyer for Kuperfis, said his client has never been part of a network of traders exchanging information. David-Olivier Kaminski, an attorney for Fima, said his client has nothing to do with the investigations that led to Choucair’s conviction.

Choucair, now 40, testified at his trial about his first conversation with Fiyaz, six years his senior, at a pricey Chinese restaurant in London around 2005. They had seen each other at Tramp, where Choucair, the son of a Lebanese construction executive, was a member. Fiyaz and his brother Javed started showing up that year, according to two people familiar with the club scene. They would arrive in separate Rolls-Royces, descend the stairs, pass the red-neon Let’s Get Tramped sign and set up camp in a corner, surrounded by a clutch of women. Choucair would spend thousands of dollars in that den two or three times a month. Whenever he ordered a $4,000 bottle of Champagne, the staff would play the “Star Wars” theme music and announce “Lebanon is in the house,” according to people who’d been there with him.

Choucair was out with a friend who knew Fiyaz when they spotted each other at the Chinese restaurant. They got to talking. “We spent the whole night having drinks, which I was very good at, and having a conversation, which he was very good at,” Choucair would testify at his trial 14 years later, trying to explain that his stock tips were coming from traders like Fiyaz and Kuperfis and not from his friend at UBS.

Choucair had a privileged upbringing in London. He boarded at Mill Hill, a 212-year-old school set on 150 acres of lush parkland. But it was something more avant-garde that first got his heart racing as a young boy. Watching TV one day, he saw Guns N’ Roses’ wild-haired guitarist Slash tear through a solo and decided he, too, wanted to be a guitar hero. When he was 18, his father died and he inherited a fortune. He spent the next years in a blur of benders, and, in his sober moments, completed a business degree at King’s College London, he said at his trial. He bought an Aston Martin, started collecting guitars and filled his apartment with life-size figures from his other boyhood obsession, “Star Wars.”

Fiyaz was raised with his brother in Belgium, where their father, a Pakistani businessman, had settled. They got started at the family company and made their money from shipping and investments ranging from Nigerian oil blocks to Danish department stores and a chocolatier, according to people who’ve met them and information on their websites. But they also attracted the attention of Belgian police, who suspected them of carrying out a scheme to avoid paying value-added taxes, two people familiar with the matter say. The investigation was closed after Fiyaz and his brother agreed to a settlement including a seven-figure payment, one of the people said. Neither was charged, and there was no admission of wrongdoing. Fiyaz’s spokeswoman said the dispute was over whether sales by his company were exempt.

By the mid-2000s, the brothers had moved to London, where they caused a stir in the Mayfair social scene. Alshair, the younger and more athletic of the two, was permanently dressed to go out. He and Javed faced each other across a pair of imposing desks in an office behind the Dorchester Hotel, where they ran their shipping business. They told people they were looking for fresh investment opportunities.

When Choucair saw Fiyaz’s trading setup, he testified, he was intrigued and wanted in. He said that Fiyaz and Kuperfis, nicknamed the Cowboy because he hit the mark so often, showed him how to competitively trade contracts for difference, or CFDs, derivatives that allow a person to bet on a company’s stock without owning shares. It’s a way of trading on margin. With a relatively small down payment, profits and losses can exceed those when buying shares. Many countries have restricted their sale because retail investors can underestimate the risks and incur outsize losses.

Choucair and his associates were a paradoxical bunch. They relied on each other for tip-offs but were suspicious that others were spying on them. Fiyaz accused his brokers of telling people about his positions in the market, according to four of the traders. Some accused him of scoping out their trading positions. Discretion was paramount, and that included using untraceable communications, Choucair testified. Choucair soon had four handsets with unregistered SIM cards for the traders he was talking to. Fiyaz insisted he keep a line dedicated to him, Choucair said in court. Every few months, the traders replaced their SIM cards, and, often, their devices. Fiyaz’s spokeswoman declined to comment on the specifics of Choucair’s testimony but said the jury that convicted him had found it to be untruthful.

In 2011, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission froze assets belonging to Fiyaz and another trader, saying they were suspected of making millions of dollars with the help of inside information on trades related to Lonza Group AG’s $1.2 billion acquisition of Arch Chemicals Inc., which Fiyaz benefited from. Authorities dropped the case the next year because of a lack of evidence, and Fiyaz wasn’t accused of insider trading. Investigators lamented that the other trader had harmed the probe by discarding a BlackBerry that SEC lawyers believed contained text messages about his activity, according to U.S. court filings.

In Choucair’s case, the Financial Conduct Authority, which led the probe, was convinced it had found his insider. Choucair met Abdel-Malek through their mothers. Choucair’s had asked Abdel-Malek’s to make curtains for the tall windows in her son's apartment. They hit it off and introduced the two children to each other. Abdel-Malek, the oldest of three daughters of religious Coptic Christians from Egypt, was kept on a tight leash, even when she got a position at UBS in London in 2007. By early 2013, Abdel-Malek was a relatively experienced compliance officer at a newly restructured division of the bank. She could look at any deal in which UBS was involved.

She had little contact with Choucair for years. But that spring they reconnected, and he invited her and a friend to Tramp to celebrate his birthday, she testified in court. He spent 10,000 pounds that night on Champagne, vodka and club sandwiches, it came out in court, and the party lasted until 3 a.m. Their friendship developed, though both said the relationship wasn’t romantic. Later that spring, he bought her a BlackBerry identical to her work model with a disposable SIM card.

Prosecutors had company database records showing Abdel-Malek was trawling for deals. She testified that she did this to improve her deals literacy, something her managers had asked her to do. Over the next year, prosecutors said, there were about 30 transactions she kept coming back to, telling Choucair when something was imminent, though the pair were only charged in connection with five of them. When prosecutors presented a motive to the jury, they said the glamour of going to Tramp was enough.

Meanwhile, the wider group of traders kept nailing stock picks before news of pending mergers broke. Fiyaz and Kuperfis made about 55 million euros ($62 million) combined trading ahead of the announcement of General Electric Co.’s 2014 deal to acquire most of Alstom SA, court records and people familiar with the matter said. Fiyaz’s spokeswoman said she was unwilling to comment on his trading earnings but denied any impropriety.

Over time, Fiyaz acquired a mansion on the outskirts of Paris, the Polo Club of St. Tropez and a yacht named Ecstasea with two helicopter landing pads that once belonged to Russian billionaire Roman Abramovich. While it’s unknown how much Fiyaz paid for the yacht, the previous owner bought it for 100 million euros in 2009, according to a U.K. court document. In 2016, Fiyaz hosted a party aboard Ecstasea for the benefit of the Leonardo DiCaprio Foundation, his spokeswoman said. She declined on privacy grounds to say how much he paid for the yacht.

But the suspected trading network was heading for trouble. Even before the GE-Alstom deal, a friend of another member of the group, a deals lawyer, was getting divorced. It got nasty, and the lawyer’s former brother-in-law wrote a letter to French investigators saying he’d overheard him exchanging tips with a trader, according to people familiar with the information.

Investigators had already dedicated resources to cracking down on insider trading, spurred in part by the French government’s anger that information about the GE-Alstom deal was leaked to the press. The regulators built up phone records connecting the group, the people familiar with the matter said. They secured wiretaps, including for the burner phone of a hair salon owner at one of Paris’s most exclusive hotels, whom they suspected of being a go-between, according to French investigative documents. The trail led to French ski resorts, the Cayman Islands, Geneva and eventually to the garden of London’s Four Seasons Hotel.

A transcript of the recording made at the Four Seasons and shown to the jury at Choucair’s trial revealed he was talking to someone on the phone about a deal for a U.S. energy company. Choucair testified that the person was Jeffrey McCracken, at the time head of deals coverage at Bloomberg News.

Choucair said he often spoke to reporters, sometimes at the behest of other traders, in the hope they would confirm his tips and publish an article that would cause the share price to spike. That day, Choucair testified in the second trial, Fiyaz had come to London to discuss the energy deal. McCracken, who left Bloomberg in 2017 to join CNBC and hasn’t been accused of any wrongdoing, declined to comment.

Bloomberg reporters regularly receive tips from people active in the market and were first to report on several deals mentioned in this article. The news organization’s policy is not to publish any information without confirming with people who have direct knowledge of the matter. The policy also prohibits telling sources when a story will be published.

Choucair seemed to know about the investigation before his arrest. In November 2014, he called Kuperfis to warn him. There’s a “big f--king investigation,” he blurted out in a conversation recorded by French investigators and played at Choucair’s trial. Within weeks, Kuperfis and two others were raided in France and Geneva. Kuperfis has been charged with insider trading in France in connection with his trading ahead of chemical producer Air Liquide SA’s $10 billion takeover of Airgas Inc., but he has challenged the legality of the wiretaps, and the case hasn’t come to trial. His lawyer said he couldn’t comment on the case other than to say the charges are unfounded.

Choucair’s lawyers said in court that his client knew about the probe because he was told by Fiyaz, who, the lawyer recounted, had claimed he had gotten the information from a National Crime Agency interpreter, according to the judge's summary of the allegations, which weren’t shared with the jury. Before his arrest, Choucair had written a letter that he hid under a rug in his apartment and that was discovered by investigators, according to the judge’s summary. In it, the summary said, he described what Fiyaz had told him about his NCA sources. The NCA said in December that it’s investigating the matter. Fiyaz’s spokeswoman said he has never had any relationship with investigators at the NCA or other regulatory agencies.

Choucair had his apartment swept for bugs, one person familiar with the matter said, though none were found. He called the FCA, his lawyer said in court. Then, at 6:30 a.m. one morning in September 2015, there was a knock on the door. About a dozen NCA officers had come to arrest him for insider trading. “I knew you were coming,” Choucair said, according to an account his lawyer gave in court.

Across the street, they searched his mother’s house. A few miles away, Abdel-Malek’s sister woke her in her bedroom on the top floor of their family home. Two NCA officers were there to arrest her. They found a printout of price-sensitive information in a Chanel handbag and, according to people with knowledge of the matter, a new 30,000-pound Rolex, worth more than a quarter of her annual salary, along with a receipt. The jury wasn’t told about the watch.

A few months after his release, Choucair was called back to the police station. Two FCA investigators sat opposite him in a small featureless room. They kept asking him about Fiyaz, Kuperfis and others, Choucair’s lawyer said in court. Choucair kept quiet.

During the first trial last fall, Abdel-Malek’s white-haired father sat in the gallery with clenched teeth, clutching a wooden cross and family photographs. Prosecutors couldn’t point to any payments she received, and Choucair was convincing on the witness stand. His lawyer told the jury that Fiyaz and other traders were just as likely a source of information for Choucair as Abdel-Malek. After all, they had bet far more heavily on the very same trades, and Choucair had been in frequent contact with them beforehand.

In December, a few days before the end of the first trial, Choucair returned to Tramp. He was playing guitar with his band White Collar. The room was dark, and Choucair, wearing a hoodie and Converse sneakers, lingered in the background, barely moving to the music. The other four band members, wearing leather, tattoos and eye-liner, filled the tiny stage. Then Choucair stepped forward to sing Bon Jovi’s It’s My Life. By the time the group was on to Guns N’ Roses’ Sweet Child O’ Mine, the electric bass player was pulling his shirt off and climbing onto the drum kit below a chandelier. One band member grabbed the microphone and egged the crowd on. “This might be our last gig,” he said, without explaining that the man who was bankrolling the group might go to jail.

It wasn’t Choucair’s last gig. The jury was unable to come to a verdict. At the second trial this year, Fiyaz involved himself more in the proceedings. At times, he had as many as five lawyers in the courtroom. One was a defense counsel who told the judge that Choucair had falsely accused Fiyaz of wrongdoing. “These are very serious allegations which are made against my client,” the lawyer said. “These are allegations which he denies. He’s never been arrested or charged in relation to any of these matters. The FCA has never cautioned him or even invited him in in relation to any of these matters. He is a man of previous good character.”

Then, just before Choucair was cross-examined, the FCA told the jury it had received information that Fiyaz, via an intermediary, had an insider at Citigroup Inc. The agency said it didn’t have time to investigate if any confidential information had been passed to Fiyaz. Last week, the Wall Street Journal reported additional details about the alleged intermediary. A Citigroup spokeswoman declined to comment. Fiyaz “vehemently denies” that he traded on inside information obtained from Citigroup or any other financial institution, his spokeswoman said.

This time the Fiyaz-was-my-tipster defense didn’t work. Choucair and Abdel-Malek were both convicted on all five counts and sentenced to three years in prison. Both plan to appeal.

Fiyaz wasn’t in court during the eight-week trial, or for the verdict. Traders and lawyers weren’t sure where he was. One said Argentina. Another said he’d been seen at an Alpine ski chalet. In May, Fiyaz’s name appeared on the roster of a polo team contesting the Sun Trophy at his club in France, which once paraded scantily clad models and white Bentleys in front of guests. (Fiyaz’s spokeswoman said he wasn’t involved in the day-to-day operations of the club and doesn’t condone the objectification of women.)

But on an uncharacteristically rainy Sunday, there was no sign of Fiyaz on or off the polo pitch tucked away in a forest about 20 minutes west of St. Tropez by car. In the members’ section, a dozen spectators sitting in wicker armchairs, sheltered by awnings, braved the bad weather to watch Fiyaz’s team take a 5-2 drubbing. When asked after the match why Fiyaz had been replaced by another player, a worker at the club said he had been ordered not to talk. The reason, his spokeswoman said a few weeks later, was that it happened to fall during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan and Fiyaz was fasting.

— With assistance by Gordana Filipovic and Alan Katz
submitted by vegas_guru to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

The multifaceted causes of the Bengal famine and the resulting media disinformation

Churchill is a famous man, one of the most famous in fact, and as such more than almost any other figure in recent history gets more films and books written about him than seldom few others. He is also an icon for many, myself included, and in my and millions of others opinions the greatest Briton. However this fame means for low effort blogspammers and lazy journalists he is a very attractive target because any article regardless of how poorly researched provided it takes a negative stance against him will inevitably be well received and trend making the insignificant time spent writing and ‘researching’ it worthwhile. The formula is simple;
  1. Wait for a new big Churchill film/event
  2. ‘Discover’ how he was evil with a “Top Ten Hitler Moments”
  3. Write a short article leaving out the nuances of said action
  4. Profit
Undoubtedly this post will suffer somewhat from my personal biases however unlike those articles which use blind disdain to be written I fully encourage any and all corrections or criticism. I will make amends as necessary and I encourage anyone reading and supporting this post to offer the same support to any opposing retort provided the retort is well researched.
EPILOGUE: Poison Gas or Poisoned Narrative
The blind hatred and lies are the most evident on reddit and wider circles than with Churchill’s quote.
“I cannot understand this squeamishness about the use of gas, I am strongly in favour of using poisoned gas against uncivilised tribes"
Here are just a few examples on Reddit and elsewhere of people using the quote to judge him, even going as far as to compare him to Hitler.
https://np.reddit.com/startrek/comments/bwn635/past_tense_is_almost_disturbing_to_watch_now_ds9/eq0h2kl/
"I cannot understand this squeamishness about the use of gas," he wrote in a memo during his role as minister for war and air in 1919. "I am strongly in favour of using poisoned gas against uncivilised tribes," he continued.
As bad as Hitler is a bit much, but Churchill was a really really shitty person.
https://np.reddit.com/AskReddit/comments/cpf9hb/whats_your_favourite_go_fuck_yourself_saying_of/ewq3lim/
Calling someone savage is quite the threat when that person said, “I am strongly in favour of using poisoned gas against uncivilised tribes.”
https://www.reddit.com/AskEurope/comments/cp7b04/favorite_quote_by_someone_from_your_nation/ewnxv8k/
"I am strongly in favour of using poisoned gas against uncivilized tribes" - also churchill
https://np.reddit.com/worldnews/comments/covqmy/the_queen_is_reportedly_dismayed_by_british/ewlolux/
Dude....
his well-documented bigotry, articulated often with shocking callousness and contempt. "I hate Indians," he once trumpeted. "They are a beastly people with a beastly religion."
He referred to Palestinians as "barbaric hordes who ate little but camel dung." When quashing insurgents in Sudan in the earlier days of his imperial career, Churchill boasted of killing three "savages."
Contemplating restive populations in northwest Asia, he infamously lamented the "squeamishness" of his colleagues, who were not in "favor of using poisoned gas against uncivilized tribes."
https://np.reddit.com/AskReddit/comments/cohpxv/tattoo_artists_whats_the_worst_tattoo_someone_has/ewlb1g8/
And was also "strongly in favour of using poisoned gas against 'uncivilised' tribes" a bad guy doesn't become a good guy just for fighting another bad guy.
https://np.reddit.com/todayilearned/comments/cnc5bs/til_in_1941_when_a_general_asked_winston/ewgkxdg/
""I am strongly in favour of using poisoned gas against uncivilised tribes," he declared in one secret memorandum."
https://www.theguardian.com/world/shortcuts/2013/sep/01/winston-churchill-shocking-use-chemical-weapons
Supporting using chemical weapons against indigenous groups is genocidally racist.
But even if Churchill was only racist and not genocidal, please prove that everyone was racist in the UK in the 1930s. You'll have to disprove the long history of anti racist movements in this wikipedia page: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-racism
https://np.reddit.com/JordanPeterson/comments/cnjavm/socialism_is_a_philosophy_of_failure_the_creed_of/ewccp4e/
"I am strongly in favour of using poisonous gas against uncivilised tribes" -Winston Churchill
" I do not admit that a wrong has been done to these people by the fact that a stronger race, a higher-grade race, a more worldly wise race to put it that way, has come in and taken their place." - Winston Churchill
"People who use quotes to prove points are stupid" -Winston Churchill (Probably)
https://np.reddit.com/todayilearned/comments/cnh7pn/til_less_than_two_month_after_leading_great/ewb1rf5/
But when they defied this script, Churchill demanded they be crushed with extreme force. As Colonial Secretary in the 1920s, he unleashed the notorious Black and Tan thugs on Ireland’s Catholic civilians, and when the Kurds rebelled against British rule, he said: “I am strongly in favour of using poisoned gas against uncivilised tribes...[It] would spread a lively terror.”
https://np.reddit.com/ukpolitics/comments/cl2eox/he_would_have_been_proud_at_the_legacy_of_britain/evseni0/
I am strongly in favour of using poison gas against uncivilised tribes. It would spread a lively terror.
It’s not just comments either, which as you can see are numerous in the use of this quote
https://www.theguardian.com/world/shortcuts/2013/sep/01/winston-churchill-shocking-use-chemical-weapons
"I am strongly in favour of using poisoned gas against uncivilised tribes," he declared in one secret memorandum. He criticised his colleagues for their "squeamishness", declaring that "the objections of the India Office to the use of gas against natives are unreasonable. Gas is a more merciful weapon than [the] high explosive shell, and compels an enemy to accept a decision with less loss of life than any other agency of war."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/books/booknews/10346568/Winston-Churchill-authorised-use-of-chemical-weapons.html
“There’s a line in the memo that says, ‘I really don’t understand this squeamishness about poison gas.’ Today that reads pretty badly.”
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/ryan-barrell/winston-churchill-note_b_11976914.html?_guc_consent_skip=1565804464
He was in favour of genocide and seemed a little bit racist
His views on other ethnic groups were clear to many and made obvious throughout his career. During his time in the War Ministry in 1919 he said he was "strongly in favour of using poisoned gas against uncivilised tribes". He said Palestinians were "barbaric hordes who ate little but camel dung". He referred to the people of the Sudan as "savages", and spent his time in parliament calling for an increased push to colonise more of the world because "the Aryan stock is bound to triumph."
So what’s the issue? I have the guardian, telegraph, AND huffington post all using this quote so it must be real? So all those reddit comment are fair right?
Churchill has never said that. This is the quote. This is what he actually said;
“It is sheer affectation to lacerate a man[make him cry] with the poisonous fragment of a bursting shell and to boggle at making his eyes water by means of lachrymatory gas[tear gas]. I am strongly in favour of using poisoned gas against uncivilised tribes. The moral effect should be so good that the loss of life should be reduced to a minimum. It is not necessary to use only the most deadly gasses: gasses can be used which cause great inconvenience and would spread a lively terror and yet would leave no serious permanent effects on most of those affected.”-Winston Churchill 1919
Source: http://bookstore.hillsdale.edu/merchdetail?MerchID=370315&num=0&start=&end=&type=1&CategoryName=Churchill%20Books&CatID=15446&Name=Churchill%20Books
The advancement of modern weapons with tanks, machine guns, bombs had meant that a tremendous amount of death could be brought upon a military power or civilian population with ease something we know all too well from WW2 which saw tens of millions dead both civlian and military with little regard for either. Simply put Churchill didn’t want our perspective of ‘poisoned gas’ to be coloured from the experiences of World War 1 to such an extent we might ignore it’s possible use to minimise the loss of life something he was clear to point out shortly there after.
“Gas is a more merciful weapon than high explosive shell, and compels an enemy to accept a decision with less loss of life than any other agency of war. The moral effect is also very great. There can be no conceivable reason why it should not be resorted to. We have definitely taken the position of maintaining gas as a weapon in future warfare, and it is only ignorance on the part of the Indian military authorities which interposes any obstacle.”-Winston Churchill
The remaining controversy with that statement is the use of ‘uncivilised tribes’ which many attribute racist notions but the truth is this comes from British military law;
“The British Manual of Military Law stated that the rules of war applied only to conflict "between civilized nations." Already in the Manual of 1914, it was clearly stated that "they do not apply in wars with uncivilized States and tribes"; instead the British commander should observe "the rules of justice and humanity" according to his own individual discretion”-HMSO, 1914, p. 235
Basically, and this is my personal perspective that you might find logical, is that Churchill being a former soldier understood the fog of war and its impact on a decision like this. I’m going to skip forward a little to 1939-1945 to explain fog of war to those unfamiliar or unaware of its consequence during battles on all sides there’d be misreporting of information up the chain of command. American tankers famously reporting Tiger tanks when there were none in the area confusing it with the much less lethal and dangerous Panzer 3/4 tanks and the Russians during the final weeks of the war falsely reported Germans as having used gas when they did not. If gas including non-lethal gases, became common between warring nations the fog of war would result in escalation not out of ill intent or desire to use lethal methods but because a soldier under gas attack seeing the man next to him die from no visible cause might falsely report lethal gas which would prompt a retaliation thus within days tear gas would turn to more lethal methods. As an aside fearing German use American and Britain both prepared using lethal gas as an escalation as did Germany in 1943 during an air raid an American ship carrying mustard gas exploded and claimed the lives of hundreds if not thousands. Before the nuclear bomb there was chemical warfare and risk of escalation meant that the use of non lethal gasses should be prohibited.
The same is not true for ‘uncivilised states/tribes’ which lack the ability to respond and escalate and as such make the use of non-lethal weapons viable and even preferable over machine guns, artillery and bombs. In modern days we might consider the equivalent to being proto-states or smaller.
That’s Churchill’s perspective in my opinion he understood the humane benefits to tear gas and its potential use to minimise the loss of life and achieve victory against protostates or rebellions while also understand the risk of it when used against militarily industrialised countries who has the ability to respond which in turn would escalate the use and lethality of gases as a result of the fog of war.
So I leave this section with a question
Do you believe the quote that is often used fairly and accurately represent the actual quote and the removal of information is justified?
If you feel that the shortened quote is unfair that leaves one of two possibilities
The articles and people lacked sufficient knowledge and as such the information they present elsewhere is also problematic. They deliberately misrepresented Churchill’s quote as it undermined their point as a result of personal bias and as such their perspective should be disregarded entirely.
The point of this epilogue was to as quickly and simply as possible address a key issue I have, and I believe surrounds Churchill, the people falsifying information to paint a narrative which when evaluated in full is a far more complex situation than presented. This brings me onto the Bengal famine the most controversial point of Churchill’s past and one far more complicated with far more misinformation and an order more magnitude information to discuss hence the short epilogue about a far more simple and clear of misinformation.
Part 1: World War 2 in brief.
The Bengal famine of 1943 simply cannot be separated from World War 2, doing so would be fundamentally irrational even if the famine itself wasn’t deliberate like that of Leningrad the effects of World War 2 cannot be ignored and as such this chapter seeks to discuss briefly the World War 2 from both a strategic military perspective and a civilian one. Our understanding of war, and mine personally as well, stems much from movies which in order to be exciting focus on individual soldiers, or groups, as their struggle through a battle we know of Ryan, of Vasily, and of Desmond what we are rarely shown or can even imagine is the scale of war, especially on the material front with numbers so large they become incomprehensible I could list the number of tanks, planes, and other such figures but I think these few tidbits serve well enough;
Rationing in Britain didn’t end until 1954 9 years after the end of WW2. The number of aircraft destroyed during WW2 is greater than the number of aircraft that currently exist in the entire world today. America produced 139 cars during WW2 down from 3 million per year so that it could make planes and tanks… it made a plane 5 minutes. America was building so many ships it accidentally made too many and turned them into ice-cream boats
The scale of the conflict goes beyond reason it was immense beyond comprehension there was in just about every aspect of human life a war factor. Gates and rails where taken from London for the war effort, anything and everything with value was used or reused it. All major nations paused for 6(4) years and concentrated on war unless it actively contributed to the war it was ignored. The Reichstag wasn’t rebuilt until 1964. They rediscovered a submarine base with submarines inside in the 90’s. You must remember the scale of things when discussing this war because that scale plays a huge factor in the Bengal famine and while not directly tied to any given famine it is the indirect cause of many we see during this era.
People like to think that the war was won at 4pm in the small village of Sovetsky on the 23rd of November 1942 i.e the successful encirclement of the German 6th army and other units consisting of a total of around 265,000 soldiers however while it is undoubtedly true Germany lost that day it wasn’t until Kursk and Smolensk(23rd August 1943 and 2nd October 1943) that the allies had won because those marked the end of German momentum for good. There was to be no summer offensive and there’d be no chance for Germany to regain initiative with their successive offensives limited to tactical victories and their best hope from then to the remainder of the war being defensive losing territory, equipment and manpower none of which it could afford. An advancing army can pick up guns, repair damaged or destroyed tanks of both their own and the enemies and put them into service where as the losing side lost them for good. This was so true that during elongated battles the damage report listed more damaged vehicles than the enemy had in the area simply because they could repair the vehicles and replace the crew.
While the war may have been won in late 1943 Germany still held much of Europe, D-DAY was a year away, Japan was still on the offensive in China. It was another 1 and a half years of hard fighting still to go.
Part 2: Famines of World War 2
One of the aspects and consequences of this war was the forgotten suffering in the form of famines of which Bengal wasn’t the only one of World War 2 far from it, below is a list of famines of that period.
Location Date Death toll Did WW2 play a factor
Cape Verde 1940-1943 20,000 No
Poland(Final Solution) 1940-1945 N/A No
Morocco 1940-1948 200,000 N/A
Leningrad 1941-44 1,000,000 No
Greece 1941-44 300,000 Yes
China 1942-43 3,000,000 Yes
Iran 1942-43 3,000,000 Yes
Bengal famine 1943 3,000,000 Yes
Rwanda and Burundi 1943-44 50,000 Yes
Yemen 1943-45 10,000 Yes
Java 1944-45 2,400,000 Yes
Netherland 1944 20,000 Yes
Vietnam 1945 2,000,000 Yes
Germany 1946-47 N/A Yes
Soviet Union 1946-47 1,500,000 Yes
I didn’t count the Final Solution nor the Siege of Leningrad because they where deliberate attempts to starve and kill the civilian population rather than incidental side effects of the war, there were 15 famines during the period of the war (extended slightly due to the German and Soviet Union famines) of which four can be excluded due to not being as an indirect result of a war or insufficient information to suggest that meaning 11 war related famines.
Yet you never heard of the 10 other famines, there’s no articles written on them or blogspam posts making its way to /todayilearned because those famines can’t be blamed on a great man so they are of little to no interest to the people and there’s no way to write clickbait on them. If an article was titled “Germany’s war effort resulted in a shortage of food and famine in 1947” I doubt you’d read it let alone share it. As such these famines which claimed the lives of millions are forgotten their deaths cannot be used by politicians to incite new hatred, their cause cannot be debated and clickbait cannot be made.
What we can see although it isn’t concrete is the delayed effect of the war in a result famine with famines as a result of the war occurring 2 years after the end. This delaying effect is partially due to there being available manpower for agriculture at the start of the war and insufficient production to arm men meaning many men in 1939, 40, 41 could still work as the demand for manpower increased in Soviet Union and Germany they widened their criteria meaning essential men for factories, agriculture, and transport were sent to fight leading to deficit of crops and as destruction increased with no ability to rebuild the mounting debt of death eventually needed to be paid. No better can we see this delay in war than by examining the German production
Type of Weapon 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 19451
Pistols ? ? ? 467253 959540 1038340 145140
Rifles (K98k, K41, K43, G 33/40) ? 1371700 1358500 1149593 1946200 2282380 310118
Machine-guns ? 170,880 (incl SMG) 324,800 (incl SMG) 77340 165527 278164 56089
Sub-machine guns MP 38, 40, 44 ? (in MG) (in MG) 152683 240073 500074 131672
1 Due to the end of the war figures given for 1945 are just for the first 2 or 3 months
As you can see 1944, in spite of intense allied bombing, was Germany's best year for production and had it not been for the sudden collapse in 1945 Speer’s plans for 1945 would have seen even more produced and this was a losing nation by this point. This is delayed onset for production during WW2 irrespective of nation due to demand and optimisation contrary to belief production rates only increase with time during war even with victory or loss imminent people would still work and work better than ever with quite literally people in the Mauser factory producing guns as the Americans were right outside. This is what causes the delayed onset as more and more resources and manpower gets sent away from civilian needs eventually the needs of the people in food, fuel, steel and raw materials aren’t met and famine sets in even years after victory.
In summary the Bengal famine of 1943 was not an isolated case and was among many the world round as a result of the war. Any author which fails to mention or discuss this even briefly is simply not doing their due diligence to the topic at hand.
Part 3: Pre-War Bengal
Before we can finally discuss the famine itself we must understand the Bengal prior to the famine much like how we can’t separate the German famine of 46/47 (The ‘hungerwinter’) from Germany 1944/45 we can’t separate the Bengal famine of 1943 from it’s pre-war conditions.
Bengals population grew enormously since the turn of the century with West Bengal going from a population of 16,940,088 in 1901 to 23,229,552 in 1941 an increase of 37% of which it saw a 23% increase in the most recent decade (31-41) drastically increasing food demand and turning the region of Bengal from a net food exporter to a net food importer. It had a population of around 60 million which was around the same as France, Belgium, Holland, and Denmark combined or in modern terms around the same population as California and Florida… combined. All these people lived in an area of roughly 77,000 mi2 roughly that of Nebraska. We imagine British India as a country like say France or Germany the truth of it is far different British India was approximately 1.7 million square miles, which is the size of the EU. The distances between ports could be equal to the distance from London to Leningrad(St Petersburg) in both longitudinal and latitudinal directions. India is large now and even larger during this period.
Due to the separation of Bengal into West Bengal and Pakistan in 1947 data record are slightly hazy but this figure is inline with India in general (33% turn of century increase, 14% decade). While the deficit between agricultural supply and demand was not insurmountable with no famines since the turn of the century it certainly wasn’t a desirable position especially if one lost it’s trade partners. It’s ability to compensate for population growth with agricultural expansion was limited by the lack of availability of land and a stagnant (and even declining) yield per acre yield as a result of damage to the soil and population growth meaning worse land is farmed.
For the sake of completion here is the official reports population growth
According to the census figures, the population of the province[Bengal] increased from 42.1 million in 1901 to 60.3 million in 1941[43%]. While the population of India increased by 37 per cent between the years 1901 and 1941, that of Bengal increased by 43%.
A complex system of land ownership exacerbated the situation similar to that of the Irish potato famine resulted in many farmers having little to no land to grow crops here’s a short video with a basic overview of a similar situation
https://youtu.be/gAnT21xGdSk?t=366
Victorian era industrialisation in the form of railway construction left its mark having negatively impacted the vital waterways of the region.
All these factors meant that Bengal by 1930 is reported to have the least nutritious diets on planet earth surviving on a diet barely above starvation. Which is well summarised as;
“Bengal’s rice output in normal years was barely enough for barebones subsistence. An output of 9 million tons translates into 1 lb per day or less than 2,000 kcals per adult male equivalent. Even allowing for imports from neighbouring provinces and Burma, the province’s margin over subsistence on the eve of the famine was slender.”
Their rice yield per acre was stagnant since the start of the 20th century despite a growing population however the turning point was not until 1936. As a quick aside Bengal has 3 crops, Boro(April and May), Aus(July and August) and Aman(November and December). The Aman crop is the most important for the region contributing the majority of supply for the region for the following year.
“Current supply (1938 to 1942).- On the average of the 5 years 1938 to 1942, the yield of the Aman crop was sufficient for about 38 weeks, as against 42 weeks in the previous decade. The yield of the boro and aus crops was sufficient for about 10 wrecks as against 12 weeks in the previous decade. The supply derived from external sources, namely the balance of imports over exports, provided over one week’s supply, as against nil in the previous decade. Thus, the current supply was, on average, sufficient for only 49 weeks in the year as against 54 in the former period.”
If we look at the yearly surplus from 1929 to 1941 including carry over and under the assumption that there was no carry over from 1928 due to insufficient data
Year Total(surplus) Year Total(surplus)
1929 0.79(0.79) 1936 2.85(-1.5)
1931 1.59(0.80) 1937 4.2(1.35)
1932 2.27(0.68) 1939 3.69(-0.51)
1933 3.67(1.40) 1940 3.35(-0.34)
1934 4.11(0.44) 1941 0.92(-2.43)
1935 4.35(0.24)
Bengal had lost its buffer in part due to population growth and less favourable seasonal conditions over the past half decade and as such lost any time to respond to a crisis, let alone a severe one. Just to be clear agriculture was the responsibility of the Indian governments as part of a diarchy and had been since 1919. For the sake of transparency this control of agriculture may have been rescinded and if anyone has evidence of that I will make the necessary corrections.
Simply put Bengal was teetering on the edge of famine for decades unfortunately for Bengal the war came before the social, agricultural, and industrial evolution that it needed.
Part 4: Japan attacks the Western Powers
Often forgotten and sometimes misrepresented was the fateful day of December 7th 1941 which saw Japan attack the United States, United Kingdom, and Netherlands prior to a formal declaration. Following Japanese attacks on three British overseas territories (Singapore, Malaya, Hong Kong) Britain declared war on Japan 9 hours before the attack on Pearl Harbour as a result of the forgotten attacks on these territories some people mistakenly think that Britain declared war on Japan to get America to join in Europe which requires overlooking that America didn’t declare war on Italy or Germany who declared war on America on December 11th who responded later that day with it’s declaration.
Britain and America suffered in the early stages of the war with Britain suffering from it’s continued battle against Germany which it devoted much of it’s attention even though by this point the battle of Britain was won. The possibility of invasion was also gone as Germany's ambitions lay East to the Soviet Union This diversion was a relief as it meant a division of focus however due to the early monumental successes of Barbarossa it was also an alarming time for those in government. A Soviet collapse and German victory could give Germany a significant production advantage and a surplus of oil it so desperately needed. While America having being knocked down but not out at Pearl would not see Naval dominance until Midway 7 June 1942 until then Japan saw nothing but success in the non-Chinese front and plenty of success in China as well. Following the defeat at Midway Japan's ability to expand and commit itself to a large invasion of Australia was out of the question so both sides entered a period of stalemate. Japan lacked the ability to attack instead took a very defensive stance in the Pacific Ocean while shifting it’s offensive focus to China which it successfully maintained until 1945. Meanwhile America and Britain focused much of their attention to Europe as part of ‘Europe first’ policy which was affirmed in 1941. Japan simply lacked any possibility to threaten America or Britain while knocking Japan out of the war would be an immense undertaking meanwhile German presented a very active threat being both technologically superior and with greater access to industry in the event of a Germany victory over the Soviet Union (whatever nature that victory was) it would represent a direct threat to Britain and eventually a direct threat to America. As such until their position in Europe was solidified (Kursk, North Africa, Italian invasion) and the battle of the atlantic won Japan would be secondary. This is why in terms of territorial changes in the pacific theatre (excluding China) much of 42/43 was relatively quiet.
Asia was an afterthought as unemotional as that notion of millions of Chinese, Islanders, Indians suffering being a secondary it was a necessity. Germany was the undisputed threat ando not focusing on them would have been foolish and illogical.
Part 5: The Fall of Burma
The importance of Burma was not unknown to the allies specifically Britain and Nationalist China which would rely on the Burma road for vital supplies however with threats in China from the East and the North African campaign taking priority for the British and would do so until 13 May 1943 which saw allied victory (The Second Battle of El-Alamein 11 November 1942 would however mark the beginning of the end for Axis power in Africa) which was still a year or more away.
Japan recognised the importance of region with it’s natural resources of oil, cobalt, and excess rice it would help be a vital and productive buffer zone from the more important pacific theater. It launched on January 22nd 1942 it’s main attack for Burma, although smaller probing attacks and air attacks preceded this, and outside limited examples met with near total success owing to superior equipment and training this disorganised retreat was hampered by the emerging refugee problem caused by deliberate attempts by Japan to target civilian population centers much like Germany did during their invasion of Poland.
As a result of the Japanese attacks 100,000’s of troops were forced back into Bengal the gateway to India as where 500,000 refugees which as a result of close intermingling, problematic water and food supplies as well as close proximity of the refugee made it a hotbed of disease. Roughly 50,000 died along the way and by the time they reached British India some 80% where sick with dysentery, smallpox, malaria or cholera some 30% desperately so these refugees many having gone without food for days filled the large towns and cities of Bengal. Japanese occupation of the region would not be questioned until November 1944 and not completely until July 1945 for the 3 years of occupation vital rice could not be exported from the rice rich region of Burma to Bengal.
Following the defeat of British, Indian, and Chinese troops in Burma an urgent need to defend the core of India presented itself and there is no better region to do so than Bengal, the gateway of India, as an incredible strategic defensive position. This is due to the large rivers and narrow passages with the ocean on one side and mountains on the other this narrowing would allow any defending army to concentrate it’s forces and yielding a significant advantage to those defending even if outnumbered. As such Britain needed to station a large number of soldiers in the area to protect India from Japan.
In the past it has been suggested that it was wrong for Britain and India to protect itself and the allies should have left Japan waltz through India and Iran unopposed afterall Japans horrific treatment was limited to the Chinese right? Firstly it wasn’t, Japans brutality was experienced everywhere in Asia from Malaya to Signpore and even Burma with incidents like the Kalagong massacre which saw the mass rape and murder of 1,000 villagers.
The inhabitants were taken in groups of five to ten people to nearby wells, blindfolded, and bayoneted, and their bodies were dumped in the wells
So no Japan wouldn’t have been some humanitarian liberators they would have looted, raped, and murdered their way through India plundering the rice from Bengal to further their conquest. Then you factor in the strategic importance of the India continent if Japan got ahold of it their position would be strengthened and the allies weakened with easy Japanese raiding from the southernmost tip on vital allied shipping with Japan potentially being able to threaten precious and vital oil in Iran.
Simply put the option to surrender India to some peaceful Japanese occupation is revisionist fantasy that overlooks Japanese armies disregard for the notion of human rights, let alone the strategic problems for the greater war effort such a surrender would represent
Part 5b: Defence of India
With Bengal being required for both the war in general and the protection of India specifically a military build up in the region was required and in order to support said build up a larger force of military labourers was required not to mention military related jobs and non combat roles mean that for every front line soldier many more people are required to support them in the factories for guns, fields for food, and yards for construction. This enormous buildup thus required an even greater number of low skill workers which fortunately there was an abundance of and with the relatively high wages paid to them to construct new airfields many Bengal farmers flocked to these jobs which promised better pay in a major city this military industrialization occurred at a rate far quicker than the preceding industrialisation of the past 4 decades in the region and upset the balance between industry and agriculture.
The vast majority of Indias and allied industrial output was devoted to the war, earlier I mention how America produced practically no civilian cars during WW2 and that was America, everything India made was purchased or devoted to the army which paid fairly for the goods and wasn’t a looting or slave labour situation however the remaining industrial capacity was sold largely unregulated on the civilian market which had a disastrous impact. Say your a shirt factory in India making 10,000 shirts a week the war starts and the army wants 9,000 a week from you. Fine. So you have 1,000 civilian shirts where previous demand was 10,000 shirts meaning you can and will increase the price and as a whole they did. It was the lack of government control, not government control which led to the problem of profiteering.
If we think back to those low skill Bengal farmers who are being paid by large government military expenditure they are getting paid more than they were in the farms to encourage their sector change (agriculture to industrial) increasing their purchasing power allowing for the price increase of civilian goods and foods as both became restricted the former through diversion to the military and the latter by the loss of workforce the result of which is the poorer agricultural workforce who unlike the city workers and landowners where priced out of the market quicker than i.
Here’s how the prices of goods changed from pre-war to 1943.
General Primary Rice Wheat General Manufactured Cotton
Aug 39 100 100 100 100 100
Sep 39 107.6 111 117 110.3 105
Dec 39 135.9 114 156 144.5 126
Mar 40 128 1114 140 133.9 110
Jun 40 112.4 121 117 120 118
Sep 40 110.3 133 133 111.6 110
Dec 40 114 140 160 119.7 117
Mar 41 111.8 139 146 127.2 127
Jun 41 122.3 163 148 142.9 143
Sep 41 138.3 169 193 166.3 190
Dec41 139.5 172 212 157.8 198
Mar 42 139.4 159 202 162.5 193
Jun 42 152.3 207 214 166.5 212
Sep 42 160.4 218 223 179.1 282
Dec 42 175.6 218 232 221.5 414
This issue is more clearly seen when looking at the wholesale price of coarse rice in Calcutta from April 1931 to January 1943
https://i.imgur.com/i3e1vNF.png
The price experienced over a 4 fold increase compared to prewar price however prior to the Japanese declaration the price was not wholly out of control this catastrophic explosion of the price partly due to aforementioned occupation of Burma, refugees, military industrialisation of India, and to an as of yet undiscussed topic of panic buying and hoarding.
Part 6a: Scorched Earth
Fearing Japanese invasion the government set about a policy to deny the enemy vital supplies. Japan's military, especially those in the furthest reaches in Burma, Malaya and deep China lacked sufficient supply and ability to be supplied with food from Japan as such they where reliant on plundering or purchasing of local food not dissimilar from Germany and Russia (41/42 and 44/45 respectively) as such provided you can sufficiently deny them vital supplies such as food and transportation their ability to advance is hampered significantly. In the western theater of war this tactic was used by both the Soviet Union with the scorched earth policy and Hitlers Nero Decree however despite being similar in concept the execution differed significantly between British and Soviet/German implementation. This can be established between looking at the Nero Decree which thankfully was never fully carried out and the reality of the denial policy.
“All military transport and communication facilities, industrial establishments and supply depots, as well as anything else of value within Reich territory, which could in any way be used by the enemy immediately or within the foreseeable future for the prosecution of the war, will be destroyed”
It was much like the Soviet policy a complete destruction of the regions civilisation in order to hamper an advance in contrast the denial policy was significantly more tame and measured seeking only to restrict excess rice and remove means of transportation requiring any enemy planning an invasion or advance would require significantly more preparation as a result of increased operational demands.
While the threat loomed of Japanese invasion, unlike the Soviet Union and Germany it was currently underway affording the government more time as such rather than the destruction of goods lacking the time for relocation a measured approach can be taken whereby local official where permitted to buy excess rice to local demand and move it west in a safer region. An over emphasis is put on this policy which was a contributing factor was not the sole factor or in my opinion the main factor however ‘Denial policy’ or ‘destruction of rice’ in a short sentence or comment is a very easy target for the problems. However the factual reality is significantly different from the short sentence simplification. The denial policy only saw some 40,000 tonnes of rice/paddy removed a drop in the ocean compared to the shortfall. This small quantity is due to two factors, one being the limited surplus available for which local officials where permitted to purchase the second being the price ceiling local officials could purchase rice quickly found itself below the actual price of rice effectively putting a stop to the practice as a farmer could make more money selling his or her goods to the market rather than as part of a denial policy. However the timing of the denial policy is strongly tied to other factors which brought about it’s introduction namely the Japanese invasion of Burma. However I will not deny the potential it contributed to some small degree a price increase due to local officials initially offering 10% above market value for rice (prior to the market price and subsequent price ceiling) and the potential said policy might have for alarming citizens who would undoubtedly attach said policy to a more imminent specific threat to their region.
I feel it is worth adding strongly the following
”There is no evidence to show that the purchases led anywhere to physical scarcity.”
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Offseason with Cidolfus: Rebuilding the Defense

Rebuilding the Defense

Last week, I examined how the Dolphins might approach rebuilding the offense, and this week I’m going to take a look on at the other side of the ball. Even though the defense has more foundational pieces, I think there’s a lot more interesting discussion to be had here than on offense. It’s fairly simple to analyze what’s wrong with the current state of our offense and propose a solution moving forward: we need a quarterback and we need to solidify the offensive line. That’s obviously easier said than done, but in a series that’s mostly concerned with team-building on a macro-level, there’s not a lot of debate to be had about that as a path forward. As I’ve said before, I don’t pretend to be a great evaluator of talent and most of my individual player analysis is largely dependent on statistical analysis of their performance and contract projections based on those performance metrics.
Unlike the Dolphins offense, though, the defense is at a crossroads. Current personnel puts the team in an interesting position, particularly because the contracts on the books leave us extremely thin along the defensive line, particularly at defensive end. This presents both a major hurdle to overcome (pass rushers are a premium in the NFL and expensive to replace) and also a huge opportunity to make some changes (we have an awful lot of flexibility to change our scheme). With that in mind, I’m going to propose two different strategies for the defense based on what I view as the two major options for this team.
Like last week, let’s take a look at the defensive depth chart after our cuts and before free agency.
Position 1 2 3
DE
DT Godchaux Spense
DT Taylor Norton
DE Harris
OLB Alonso
MLB McMillan Allen
OLB Baker
CB Howard Davis
CB Tankersley McTyer Armstrong
SCB McCain
FS Fitzpatrick Aikens
SS Jones/McDonald
If you missed the entries explaining the decisions leading to the above, links are below:

Two Paths Forward

Those of you who have been following these posts have no doubt noticed I’ve been in favor of considering a move to a 3-4 front. First we’ll take a look at what options are available to us assuming we stay in a 4-3 front, then we’ll examine different choices we might make if we make the switch. Before anyone mentions it, yes, I am aware that it’s more likely that we’re going to continue to do what most NFL teams do and run some blend of the two. I am also aware that in today’s passing-heavy NFL the nickel defense is more often than not a team’s base defense by snap count. That said, whether we see ourselves primarily as a 4-3 or 3-4 front, particularly as how it relates to our formation at the line even in the nickel defense.
Patrick Graham, the Green Bay Packers linebackers coach, is reported to be Flores’s pick for defensive coordinator, and the Packers have primarily ran a 3-4 front during his tenure with the team. They brought in Mike Pettine last year who, on his arrival, spoke openly about how they would run a combination of both 3-4 and 4-3 fronts with pass rushers standing up or with their hand in the dirt in different situations as necessary. Pettine commented, though, that their personnel would dictate their philosophy. I expect that’s exactly what’s going to happen in Miami next season.
First, we’ll look at personnel decisions that would lead to keeping a 4-3 front; then we’ll take a look at what would need to change to adopt personnel that lean more to 3-4 as our primary look.

The 4-3 Front: Returning Free Agents

The following assumes we plan to keep a primarily 4-3 front. The decisions with our exclusive rights free agents and restricted free agents (as we’ll discuss in just a second) won’t change substantially regardless of which scheme we decide to run, at least as it concerns impacting the salary cap available. That said, it could pretty dramatically change our free agency and drafting strategy as to how we handle unrestricted free agents and who we target in the draft.

Exclusive Rights Free Agents

Just like with the offense, these are minimum salary guys who aren’t going to have any real impact on our salary cap space available. We have two ERFA players on defense: Jonathan Woodard at defensive end and Maurice Smith at safety. Expect both to come back and compete for spots on the roster regardless of which scheme we choose.

Restricted Free Agents

Mike Hull is our only restricted free agent on defense, and unless he agrees to a minimum contract with us, he’s certainly not going to be offered any of the tenders. If we keep him, it’s not going to have any meaningful impact on our cap space, so this isn’t much of a discussion worth having.

Unrestricted Free Agents

Before we get into the more difficult decisions, let’s look at the easy names not to bring back: Sylvester Williams and Ziggy Hood. Both are over thirty and playing at what ultimately amounts to replacement level. Both played under veteran minimum deals with the Dolphins last year, so their salary cap charge was minimal. It’s possible they could be retained on similar deals moving forward, but that decision won’t meaningfully impact the cap, and I think with Godchaux, Taylor, and Spence returning at defensive tackle, anybody else we’re looking for that rotation in a 4-3 will be a young flyer who we see having developmental potential or a high draft pick we’re bringing in to be an obvious upgrade. The more snaps veterans are taking away from young guys with potential on the team, the worse we’re doing, and with two recently-drafted young guys already at DT, I don’t see bringing back two guys on the wrong side of 30 who we brought in to fill out depth after injuries as key players to retain.
The next free agent on the list is William Hayes. Hayes is an interesting veteran presence to consider whether we move to a 4-3 or 3-4 front because he could feasibly slide in at defensive end in a 3-4 front instead of outside linebacker. Unfortunately, I think his age and injury history are going to work against him here. Hayes will be 34 by the time the 2019 season begins, and it’s likely that he’s looking at retirement. We retained him on a one-year, $4 million deal last season, and he only ended up playing three games for us before suffering a season-ending injury. While Hayes has potential and we need depth at the position, I just don’t see us returning him for the 2019 season.
This brings us to the biggest decision that the Dolphins have to make about our own free agents in 2019. The reason that the Miami Dolphins have primarily run a 4-3 front in recent memory is because of one player: Cameron Wake. Wake does his best work with his hand in the dirt, and efforts to put him at outside linebacker standing up and occasionally dropping into coverage (which we’ve done occasionally since we adopted the wide nine under Vance Joseph and Matt Burke) have had mixed results at best.
But Cameron Wake isn’t under contract. Despite having a productive season last year (six sacks, ten hits, and 38 pressures), Wake is at the tail-end of his career. Wake will be 37 before the 2019 season kicks off, and he’s stated that he’s interested in coming back to the Dolphins in the right circumstances. The change in the coaching staff and move toward a rebuild certainly muddy those waters. How much money does he want? What’s his role on the defense going to be? It’s not worth Wake or the Dolphins’s time to pay Wake a lot to play out of position most of the time. Will he accept a smaller role if we do change our scheme and he’s only in on obvious passing downs? Will he accept the pay cut that goes with that reduced role in the defense?
For this first time in the past several years, Wake will not be the first or second most important player on our defensive line. He can’t be. At nearly 37-years-old, it’s painfully obvious that Wake does not make the cut under our new 2021 rule. He’s no longer a foundational building block for this team, and we can’t make our defensive decisions up front based around his skillset any longer.
Wake wants to come back, though, and I think the organization realizes how important it is to treat Wake right. The optics on treating long-time veterans well are important (although perhaps not as important as some people would like to believe). Whether we keep or move on from Wake, the way we handle that decision is going to be important. He can still be productive in pass-rushing situations (he’s finished fourth, twelvth, and fourth in the past three seasons in PFF’s pass rushing productivity metric), but we he’s obviously not the long-term future of the team.
If we plan to stick primarily in a 4-3 front, I expect to see us try to retain Wake as a pass-rushing specialist on a one-year, fully-guaranteed deal in the ballpark of around $6 million--a little more than the deal we gave William Hayes to return last year. Such a move would leave us with about $23.2 million in salary cap space remaining.

The 4-3 Front: Other Free Agents

So based on the moves above, let’s see where our depth chart is at headed into free agency on defense.
Position 1 2 3
DE Wake
DT Godchaux Spence
DT Taylor Norton
DE Harris
OLB Alonso
MLB McMillan Allen
OLB Baker
CB Howard Davis
CB Tankersley McTyer Armstrong
SCB McCain
FS Fitzpatrick Aikens
SS Jones/McDonald Smith
We need a lot of depth across the board, particularly in our front seven, but looking at this list I see two positions where we absolutely need to look at upgrading our starters: defensive end and our second boundary corner position. We’ve got approximately $24.2 million to pursue these two positions, and I expect we’re going to prioritize finding someone who can start right away at defensive end and then look to a middle-of-the-road free agent corner who can provide some stability at the position opposite Xavien Howard. As I mentioned in previous entries, even consistently average production at our second boundary corner position would be absolutely huge for us. Let’s start with the options at defensive end.

Defensive End

Trey Flowers, New England - 25: This move just seems to make sense. Flowers is a young, talented defensive end who performed well against both the pass and the rush last year. His Pass Rushing Productivity was 18th among 185 qualifying defensive ends at 8.3 (nine sacks, twelve hits, and 43 hurries on 466 passing snaps where he rushed on 94.6% of those snaps. He saw pass rushing snaps from both the left and right side of the line and was more effective on the left side (as is typical). Flowers also posted a solid 10.5% Run Stop Percentage (PFF’s stat which tracks the number of defensive stops against the run--specifically tackles that result in a loss for the offense) which was 20th among 123 qualifying defensive ends.
There’s also the obvious connection with Brian Flores as our presumed head-coach-to-be. We’ve seen over and over (not just on the Dolphins) how new coaches like to try to bring some pieces they’re familiar with along with them. Moreover, the Patriots aren’t in a great position to retain Flowers long-term. While Gronkowski retiring would certainly save them some substantial cap space, they have a number of key free agents to retain that would make the cost of paying Flowers starting defensive end money pretty difficult without makin some deep cuts. Spotrac projects Flowers’s market value at $15.3 million per year, and even with Gronkowski gone, the Patriots only figure to have about $30 million in cap space gone with free agents like Trenton Brown, Jason McCourty, Chris Hogan, Malcom Brown, Stephen Gostkowski, Phillip Dorsett, Danny Shelton, and LaAdrian Waddle all having played more than 30% of snaps slated to hit unrestricted free agency. Obviously some of those guys are more replaceable than others, but it would be hard to make a market offer for Flowers (or tag him) and keep other important parts of the core together.
Frank Clark, Seattle - 25: Clark is comparable to Flowers as a defensive end target. He’s also extremely young, and while Flowers had more defensive stops (Clark’s run stop percentage was 5.6% although he still graded positively overall for run defense), Clark performed slightly better as a pass rusher (his overall 8.7 pass rushing productivity score was twelfth best in the league with 13 sacks, 13 hits, and 38 hurries on 465 pass-rushing snaps).
Unlike New England, Seattle has the cap space to make keeping Clark a priority. Spotrac projects his contract value at just north of $12 million per year, and that’s definitely manageable given the nearly $55 million that the Seahawks currently have available under the salary cap. Like the Patriots, they have several other free agents they’re likely to want to retain, but they figure to have the cap space to comfortably do it. Still, it’s possible that Clark could be lured away at the right price.
Demarcus Lawrence, Dallas - 26: Lawrence was tagged with the franchise tag for good reason. His 12.3% run stop percentage was eleventh best in the NFL with 28 defensive stops on 228 snaps against the run. His 8.3 pass rushing productivity (13 sacks, 11 hits, and 39 hurries on 472 pass-rushing snaps) was tied with Flowers’s for 18th best in the NFL. Signing Lawrence would be a huge boon to us, but Spotrac projects that Lawrence will command a contract much more expensive than our previous two options at about $19.5 million in salary cap space. It’s a move that we could absolutely make, and one that wouldn’t be too awful considering his age, but I consider this the least likely among the options available, especially because Dallas is in a very strong cap position right now where they have over $50 million in cap space available but their only free agents who played more than 30% of total snaps in 2018 are Lawrence, Cole Beasley, Geoff Swaim, and LP Ladouceur (their long-snapper). Don’t expect Lawrence to leave Dallas without a contract unless he’s trying to force his way out. They can absolutely afford to pay him.
Ezekiel Ansah, Detroit - 29: Ansah’s the odd one out on this list. By the time the 2019 season begins, he’ll be 30 years old, which is typically older than you’d like for a guy signing his first major, non-rookie contract after getting hit with his fifth-year option and then playing last season under the franchise tag. He’s also got an injury history that’s marginally worrisome. He’s missed twelve games in the last three seasons, playing less than half of all games for the Lions last year under the tag. That said, in his limited snaps last season (101 total pass-rushing snaps), Ansah finished first overall among defensive ends on PFF’s pass-rushing productivity score with an 11.9 with four sacks, three hits, and thirteen hurries.
Ansah was no slouch in run defense when he was on the field either, logging a run stop percentage of 11.1%, tied for 15th among all defensive ends. Despite his age and injury history, Ansah remains an interesting prospect if the price is right, and it might be. Spotrac projects Ansah to get a contract just north of $13 million per year.
There are obviously other, middle-tier prospects we could consider at defensive end in this position, but I fully expect we’ll try to make a run at one of these guys because of how poor our pass rush was at finishing at the quarterback last year. Among these top options, Flowers seems the most likely because of the connection with our new head coach and the difficulty that New England will have retaining him (and Belichick’s hesitance to hand out big contracts). Being a little conservative, I’d expect we can sign him on a deal that averages $16 million per year. I’d expect that any deals we sign this year will probably put a larger portion of the guaranteed money cap hit in the second year (we figure to have a lot of cap space in 2020), so it would be reasonable to expect that with cap accounting that such a deal for Flowers might run us about $14 million against the cap in 2019, that would result in a total cap cost of about $13.5 million after displacing a minimum contract, leaving us with $10.7 million to shop for corners.

Cornerback

With just north of $10 million left in cap space, don’t expect to pursue anyone at the top end of the free agency pool here. That said, $10 million still gets you recognizable names (Logan Ryan, Aqib Talib, Richard Sherman, Joe Haden, and Prince Amukamara are all veterans currently on the back end of their careers playing on contracts under $10 million per year).
Justin Coleman, Seattle - 25: On 451 coverage snaps in 2018, Coleman allowed 49 receptions on 73 targets for 500 yards (407 yards coming after the catch) for two touchdowns and one interception. That was good for a 90 passer rating (just below the league median passer rating). His 1.11 yards per coverage snap was 59th in the NFL, his 6.2 coverage snaps per target was 56th, and his 9.2 coverage snaps per reception was 52nd. By just about every metric for coverage, Coleman was a just above average corner throughout the 2018 season.
I expect that all of this means we’d be able to sign Coleman at a relatively average cornerback contract as well--somewhere in the neighborhood of $7-8 million per year. Seattle may want to retain him (and as discussed earlier, they can afford to do so), but he’s just the first of many options available to us.
Steven Nelson, Kansas City - 26: Last year, Nelson was targeted on 113 or 694 coverage snaps, allowing 60 receptions for 825 yards, five touchdowns, and four interceptions for a 76.8 passer rating. Notably, he allowed only 184 yards after the catch an average of just 3 yards allowed after the catch per reception. His 11.6 coverage snaps per reception was 35th among qualifying corners. Spotrac estimates Nelson’s market value at about $9.6 million per year--right about where we’re looking to spend.
Pierre Desir, Indianapolis - 28: Desir allowed 42 receptions for 566 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception (88.1 passer rating allowed) on 534 coverage snaps. He allowed 192 yards after the catch and averaged 1.06 yards per coverage snap, 7.5 coverage snaps per target, and a great 12.7 coverage snaps per reception (23rd best). He wasn’t targeted often and he didn’t give up much when the ball was thrown his way.
Morris Claiborne, New York Jets - 28: Claiborne posted a similar season to Desir: 588 coverage snaps, 80 targets, 45 receptions for 6662 yards, 212 yards after the catch, and four touchdowns and two interceptions (89.7 passer rating allowed). His yards per coverage snap (1.13) and coverage snaps per target (7.5) are right around the other guys we’re looking at, and his 13.1 coverage snaps per reception was twentieth best in the league.
Other names we might look at might include Phillip Gaines from Buffalo, Jimmie Ward from San Francisco, or Darryl Roberts from New York. All of these three are 27- to 28-years-old. Like those above, none of these guys are world-beaters, but they’d provide some consistency at our other starting corner spot opposite Xavien Howard. Likely these guys would all be even cheaper than the others mentioned more explicitly above, but whichever direction we go, we’re not going to want to spend too much money. Re-signing Xavien Howard is likely to be a major priority in 2020, and if he continues to perform at his current level he’s going to be expensive (and probably a franchise tag designee for negotiating leverage).
Despite what others have suggested, I don’t think we’re going to hammer out an extension for Howard now. If he’s already posturing by demanding to be paid top money, there’s no reason for the Dolphins to throw money at him before his rookie contract is over and then tag him if you can’t get an extension agreed to before he hits free agency in early 2020.
Playing on the conservative side, I think it’s a reasonable bet that we could sign one of these guys to play opposite Howard at a figure around $10 million per year. That would leave us about $1.2 million leftover (on top of the $10 million we’ve held aside for emergency signings and rollover) to make some slightly-above-minimum signings to fill out depth on the roster.

The 4-3 Front: The Draft

Let’s take a moment to examine our projected depth chart on defense so far:
Position 1 2 3
DE Wake Harris
DT Godchaux Spense
DT Taylor Norton
DE Free Agent Woodard
OLB Alonso
MLB McMillan Allen
OLB Baker
CB Howard Tankersley
CB Free Agent McTyer Armstrong
SCB McCain
FS Fitzpatrick Aikens
SS Jones/McDonald Smith
In this scenario, we head into the draft with a lot of flexibility on defense. As a quick reminder, I discussed the general feel of what I expected in the draft on offense. I mentioned targeting interior offensive line in the second round and a quarterback in the fourth or the fifth. That’s as much a projection based on need as it is on how early looks at the draft expect the value to shake out. If we’re sticking to a 4-3 front, we’d like to pick up another defensive end relatively early so that we can have been more top-end to our rotation at the position and keep Wake’s snap count manageable. But if the stars don’t align, we’ve got flexibility to take the best player available at 13 except at safety and we can try to address that depth later.
Moving forward from here, we’re flexible to draft BPA on defense at just about any position except maybe safety (and even then, drafting a strong safety would allow us to save some money in 2020 by moving on from either Jones or McDonald, whichever we’re unable to trade). In this scenario, we’re likely targeting DE, DT, and CB roughly in that order, so let’s look at some of the prospects we might expect to get at each position. Unlike offense, where I broke down players by position because of more pressing needs, here I’m going to call out some players I expect we might pursue based on who might be the best available at our top picks. In retrospect, I wish I’d done offense similarly.

Pick 13

At thirteen overall, we’re looking an awful lot like our pick last year where Fitzpatrick fell to us. The top talent of the 2019 draft heavily skews towards defense and, fortunately for us, heavily towards defensive end and edge players in general. At pick thirteen, we could feasibly see guys like Clelin Ferrell, Jachai Polite, Rashan Gary, Ed Oliver, and Jeffrey Simmons falling to us. There’s an outside chance at top corners like Deandre Baker or Greedy Williams could also be available. Really, the only way I can see us blowing this pick would be drafting a quarterback too high. I expect to see two quarterbacks go in the top 15 this year, and I don’t want us to be the sucker who picks the guy not named Haskins.

Pick 48

I mentioned last week that I expect our draft to shake out so that we’re looking at interior offensive line in the second round, but in the event we do go offense at 13, there are some defensive line players we might expect to see early day two such as Zach Allen, Brian Burns, Jaylon Ferguson, and Chase Winovich on the edge, Dexter Lawrence or Jerry Tillery on the interior, or even Byron Murphy or Chauncey Gardner-Johnson at corner.

Pick 78

It’s getting murky here, but I expect in the third round we’ll be looking for either a defensive end or a cornerback if we haven’t picked one up yet. Especially if we’re still in a 4-3 defense, I think defensive tackle is off our board unless there’s someone who’s fallen unexpectedly. Expect names like Jalen Jelks, Austin Bryant, Carl Granderson to be options on the edge and Saivion Smith, Lonnie Johnson Jr., and Joejuan Williams at corner.
I’m not going to project past our third round pick. It’s just way too early. As I’ve mentioned many times before: I don’t consider myself a great evaluator of talent, so projections here are mostly based on other peoples’ draft boards and names I’m regularly seeing projected around where we might pick at positions I expect us to target. If our front office is smart, they’re going to lean heavily towards BPA and not worry about addressing needs this year anyway, so all of this could get flipped upside down.

The 3-4 Front: Returning Free Agents

Let’s switch gears here and assume we make the change to a 3-4 defensive front. This obviously changes some of our free agency strategy around. As far as our own returning free agents go, though, the only major change would be that we become substantially less likely to pursue re-signing Cameron Wake. If we’re going to commit to a defensive scheme change that forces Wake out of position, paying him even a team-friendly $6 million on a one-year deal doesn’t make a great deal of sense. Expect everything else to pan out the same way other than letter Cameron Wake walk to sign a short-term deal with a competitor so he can chase a ring as a pass rush specialist in the twilight of his career.

The 3-4 Front: Other Free Agents

Let’s re-evaluate our defensive depth chart without Wake and switch to a 3-4 front.
Position 1 2 3
DE Spence
DT Godchaux Norton
DE Taylor
OLB Harris
ILB Alonso
ILB McMillan Allen
OLB Baker
CB Howard Davis
CB Tankersley McTyer Armstrong
SCB McCain
FS Fitzpatrick Aikens
SS Jones/McDonald Smith
The depth chart at the three spots up front gets a little murky. Expect Godchaux, Spence, and Taylor to move around with a preference for Godchaux at the nose due to his slight size advantage over the other two, but in this scenario Miami lacks a true nose tackle. If we make a change to the 3-4 front, defensive tackle becomes a bigger concern for us. Edge and cornerback still remain a need, but priorities shift a bit. Obviously we’re looking for a different kind of outside guy who’s also going to be able to drop back into coverage a bit more often.
Part of the potential good news about a move to the 3-4 front is that it puts Harris back into the position at outside linebacker he played in college, and maybe that helps us get some more production out of him. Additionally, it puts Alonso and McMillan together in the middle of the field which can hopefully maximize their value. Baker showed the best ability among our linebackers last year as the swiss-army knife linebacker: he was able to rush the passer in his very limited opportunities, but he also performed well against the run and was decent in coverage.
The need and type of player we target at corner doesn’t change much in this scenario. Expect us to be looking for the same types of guys at a similar price point. So let’s operate under the assumption that we’re not re-signing Wake and we’ll still make the same moves at corner. This would leave us with approximately $19.2 million in cap space to add depth to our defensive tackle rotation and pursue someone for outside linebacker, so let’s take a look.

Defensive Tackle

There aren’t very many free agent options at defensive tackle for guys who have experience in 3-4 schemes, but here are a couple guys who might be worth looking into if they make it to free agency.
Shelby Harris, Denver - 27: Harris is a restricted free agent and one of the best 3-4 defensive linemen available in free agency. Harris recorded 19 defensive stops as well as 3 sacks, six hits, and ten hurries as well as an interception. Harris was originally a seventh round pick, and if he got an original-round tender, that’d be an acceptable deal to make. Harris played 36.3% of Denver’s snaps, so it’s unclear whether they’d want to spend the money necessary to hit him with a higher tender. If he gets the original round tender or makes it to free agency, he’s worth pursuing.
Michael Pierce, Baltimore - 26: Like Harris, Pierce is a restricted free agent, but he was an undrafted free agent so there’s no draft pick cost to attempting to sign him unless they designated him a first- or second-round tender; Baltimore will simply have the chance to match. Pierce played all three front spots for Baltimore last season but spent most of his time at nose tackle. He was excellent in stopping the run, earning 22 defensive stops. He’s definitely worth taking a run at if he makes it to free agency.
Aside from these two names which most stick out, Brandon Dunn out of Houston and Bennie Logan from Tennessee figure to be cheaper options available to provide additional depth along the defensive line. Regardless of which of the above players are available, 3-4 DT is not a particularly expensive position. Expect that we can probably make a competitive run at any of these guys for around $6 million per year, leaving us the $14 million first year cap hit we expected for DE in our 4-3 look to be available to pursue 3-4 outside linebackers.

Outside Linebacker

We’ve got quite a few options at outside linebacker available, and with the just under $15 million available, we should have the flexibility to pursue some of the top guys in free agency at the position.
Dante Fowler, Jr., Los Angeles Rams - 24: The Rams have a good chunk of cap space available to them in 2019, but they also have several free agents to re-sign that may prevent them from locking down Fowler long-term. Fowler would serve as a more pure pass-rushing outside linebacker (his 7.8 pass-rushing productivity was tied for 28th best among all edge rushers), but he’s solid across the board and could provide good value and depth at the position.
Jadeveon Clowney, Houston - 26: After injuries plagued his earlier career, Clowney posted perhaps his best season as a Texan on his fifth-year option last year. Clowney recorded nine sacks, twelve hits, and 42 hurries on 613 pass-rushing snaps, but it was against the rush where he was truly dominant, grading at 91.2 against the run on PFF. Clowney totaled 41 defensive stops over the season. Clowney is going to be expensive (Spotrac projects a market value of $16.6 million per year), but he might be worth it if we’re looking to reimagine our defensive front seven, and he’s young enough that we’re likely to see the full value of such a contract.
Aaron Lynch, Chicago - 26: Lynch relatively quietly had a good season last year in his limited snaps in Chicago. While he had a down season rushing the passer compared to his previous performances in San Francisco (three sacks, six hits, and seven hurries), he was stout against the run and performed well when dropping back into coverage. Lynch figures to be a cheaper, more-realistic option at outside linebacker than Clowney or Fowler who figures to bring a lot of versatility to our linebackers.
Za’Darius Smith, Baltimore - 26: Smith had something of a coming out party in Baltimore in his contract year. He was very productive rushing the passer, recording 10 sacks, 17 hits, and 34 hurries. He performed acceptably in coverage, but his biggest weakness was definitely against the run where he was something of a liability at times. Given that Baker’s strength is primarily against the run and in coverage, we can stand to have the opposite outside linebacker primarily rushing the passer, and Smith would figure to fit in alongside Charles Harris in obvious passing downs.
Some of these names likely push the amount of cap space that we have available, but that could just mean we earmark less to rollover or go a bit cheaper at defensive tackle or corner. More likely, though, I expect we’ll go with one of the options who expects to be a bit cheaper like Aaron Lynch or Za’Darius Smith instead of the bigger names like Fowler or Clowney. Another name I’m not as high on but who could be a cheap option to provide some additional depth would be Shane Ray. It might even be possible that we’d sign a guy like Lynch and then also Ray for the similar cost of Clowney or Fowler.

The 3-4 Front: The Draft

The depth chart here shakes out a little bit differently which changes some of our draft priorities a bit. Coming out of free agency, here’s the defensive depth chart we’re looking at.
Position 1 2 3
DE Spence
DT Free Agent Godchaux Norton
DE Taylor
OLB Free Agent Harris
ILB Alonso
ILB McMillan Allen
OLB Baker
CB Howard Tankersley Davis
CB Free Agent McTyer Armstrong
SCB McCain
FS Fitzpatrick Aikens
SS Jones/McDonald Smith
The biggest different in our draft priority here is that we may evaluate some of the edge rushing and interior defensive line talent different depending on where we see them fitting in either defensive scheme. Polite, for example, might project better a 3-4 outside linebacker and that may move him up our draft board in the first when we’re on the clock. Similarly, big bodies for the defensive interior become more important early on as well, and it may adjust who we’re looking at for defensive ends in the third, fourth, or fifth rounds.
It’s not going to change our overall strategy very much, though. We’re still going to be looking for the best player available; the definition of who the “best available” is may just change depending on where we see them on the field for us.

Other Stuff

That’s about it for what amounts to an early off-season look at the Dolphins. I expect a lot of this to change moving forward. I’ll admit that after looking at the options for switching to a 3-4 front, I’m less sure that it’s the right move going forward, particularly because of what it means for our interior defensive line. I feel like it’s an interesting thought because of how it would work out for our linebackers, but we’ll just have to see what we do. The bigger point I want to make is that we have an awful lot of flexibility to take some pretty different paths.
I’m planning on re-visiting this series in early March when free agency is in full swing or perhaps right before. It’ll depend how things shape out and what contract news is worth discussing at that point. Similarly, I’m planning to do a post-draft analysis that takes all of free agency and the draft into consideration and takes a look at what the off-season moves this year suggest about the long-term strategy of our rebuild (particularly as it relates to contract commitments we make and what our timeline is looking like afterwards).
Other than that, that’s all for now, folks. I’m looking forward to the boundless optimism that is the NFL offseason before what looks to be a rough season in 2019. Here’s to the future.
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