What Is Nifty and Nifty Futures & How to Trade in Nifty
What Is Nifty and Nifty Futures & How to Trade in Nifty
What is Nifty Futures and How to Trade with Example
How to Trade Nifty Futures? By JustTrading.in
Trade Nifty futures with lowest margin for intraday trading
How Much Margin Capital Required to Trade 1 lot of Nifty
Arbitrage opportunities in options - how options are priced, explained in layman's terms - without resorting to the BS pricing model
Alright retards, I've been laid off at work due to beervirus and I've been eyeing and toying with the idea to get back into options trading. I'm writing this post to raise the bar for discussion on this sub, I'm tired of seeing just memes. We'll never match WSB unless there is a healthy mix of dankass memes and geniass discussions. Now, when it comes to options, I am completely self-taught (completely from first principles, back in 2008, before you autists came up with the idea of watching videos on youtube). Since I am completely self-taught, my perspective will be different from the people who learnt this stuff while studying MBA/finance courses/NSE accredited investing courses. So if what I'm saying is different from what you've heard from the dude who swindled you of 20K for two days of options education or your gay BF's live-in partner, remember when it comes to maths, there are many ways of approaching a problem, ultimately, all are the same - profit means account balance goes up, loss means a loss post on ISB goes up. Now, I'm assuming that you understand how options work. If not, I suggest heading to Zerodha's Varsity to read up on options. If you're too lazy for this, get your micro-dick outta options, this is a man's game, surprise butt-sex awaits amateurs. I'm also assuming that you've come to realise that the sustainable way to make money in options is to write options. Unless you've got Trump or Ambani on speed dial to get access to news before it becomes news, YOLOing whatever rent money you have on buying options will blow up your account, eventually. Writing options also means the possibility of account balance going tits up is a real possibility. You gotta, gotta, gotta measure and manage your risk. You can do this only when you understand options as well as your dick. Towards this, I intend to put up a bunch of posts (depending on many of you shit heads are still reading at this point) that comment about little things that are more of 'wisdom' than 'education'. The example below talks about currency derivatives. Why currency? Read below:
Lower margin needed. I can short a CE/PE contract with only Rs.2000, unlike the >Rs. 70,000 for index contracts. You get to learn, play and wisen up with an order of magnitude less money than with Nifty or Banknifty contracts.
More stable underlying. When you're shorting contracts, the last thing you want is the underlying asset going crazy like a broncho during rodeo.
Sooner or later, you end up acquiring a more balanced education on economics as a whole, rather than the shit fest that goes on in the local circles.
The more contracts you can short, the more strategies you can pursue
Decent hedging is possible without throwing away all of your potential profits
Lesser stress (anybody else going through premature hairloss or is it just me?) because of points outlined above.
Alright, today, I'm going point how the put-call parity works and by extension, show proof for 'efficient markets' by pointing out how opportunities for arbitrage is pretty much non existent, so you guys can cool it with the whole 'market manipulators' knee jerk reaction. Alright, to start off, here's the current spot rate of the USD-INR pair: https://preview.redd.it/qup28ay567j51.jpg?width=452&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b79ef1a3480e5cbafa42547143c651397ec57f13 Here's today's USD-INR futures closing rate for Sep expiry: https://preview.redd.it/krghirc677j51.jpg?width=511&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=60d52b785baa8a1cd240d0df7949a48c8391ba2d The difference between spot and futures rates is due to differences in what is construed as 'risk-free' interest rates in the US and in India. Check out this video if you want to understand why the Sep futures is trading at a premium of 27 paisa to the spot rate. Alright, so the deal is, if you buy 1 futures contract @ 74.49, unless the USDINR exchange rate rises by 27 paisa at the end of Sep (i.e. a spot rate of 74.49) you won't make a profit (ignoring brokerage and stuff). If the exchange rate were to remain the same without any change, you stand to lose (0.27 * 1000, currency derivatives have a lot size of 1000) Rs. 270 per lot. Even worse if the rupee were to appreciate (i.e. exchange spot rate goes down). Now bear with me if the next few paras are exceedingly boorish, I need to spoon feed people who aren't used to currency derivatives. My strategies are mostly aimed at playing a more risk balanced play, something that yields consistent returns which can be compounded. 10% profit compounded monthly gives 314% growth per year, 3.5% profit compounded weekly gives ~600% growth per year. Given how the USDINR rate is crashing, one way to profit would be to short a futures contract (duh!). The orange line indicates the current USDINR exchange rate As indicated above, if the exchange rate does nothing and remains as is till end of Sep, each lot of USDINR futures shorted yields about Rs. 250 in profit (for something that takes up Rs.3000 in margin, that's a >8% profit in return). Things look even better if the exchange rate were to fall further. The problem is that things heat up quickly if the exchange rate were to go up. Ideally we would want to hedge against it (which also reduces the margin needed drastically). One way to hedge it would be to buy a at-the-money call (74.25CE @ rate of Rs. 0.555 -> Rs. 555 per lot (i.e 0.555*1000)). https://preview.redd.it/ze16kyphv7j51.jpg?width=588&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a3c2bba9fb314beff309671f03a013e69e08f4e0 Having purchased a call option, the P/L curve now looks like: The max loss is now limited to Rs. 315 The keen-eyed among you will recognise the above P/L curve as one that matches that of a put option. By shorting a futures contract and buying a call option (both with same expiry), we have created a synthetic put option that would have costed us Rs. 315 (0.315*1000) for one lot. Now, why go through all of this hassle if we can get the same returns by just buying a put option? Makes sense, as long as we can purchase the 74.25 strike put option at a price lesser than Rs. 0.315 (see above). Let's see what the put options are going for: Well, how about that... The market price of 74.25 puts are exactly the same price as our synthetic put. While the synthetic put came in at Rs. 0.315, the put costs another 0.005 extra to avoid the trouble of shorting a futures contract and buying a call at the same time. This is not by chance, big trading desks have algos (trading bots for the virgins here) that keep an eye out for price disparities. In this case, if someone were to be willing to pay more, the algos would compete amongst themselves to sell the puts at any price above 0.32. And if someone were to be willing to sell a put for less than 0.315, the algos would immediately buy. The price of the puts move in sync with the prices of the futures and call contracts. Conversely, we can create a synthetic call, and you will notice that the price of the synthetic call works out to be the same as the market price for the 74.25 strike call. We can also create a synthetic futures contract the same way. The prices of derivatives aren't decided willy-nilly. They are precisely calculated at all times, which forms the basis for the best bid/ask prices. There is no room left for someone to come in and make free money via arbitraging using synthetic contracts. If you found this insightful, and would like more of this sort of posts, let me know. Options when used properly, can be used to generate risk adjusted returns that are commensurate with the amount of risk you are taking. If you are YOLO-ing, sure, you can double or triple your money, because you can also lose 100% of your margin. Conversely, you can aim for small, steady returns and compound the crap out of them. Play the long game, don't be penny wise and pound foolish.
CapitalMind Chase : Trend based market timing strategy on Nifty futures involving leverage.
I stumbled upon this article on CapitalMind blog which lead to this whole research of trying to reverse engineering the strategy : Blog : https://www.capitalmind.in/2020/07/introducing-capitalmind-chase-a-systematic-index-trend-following-strategy/ So.. Capitalmind has apparently come up with this strategy on NIFTY futures trading which essentially tries to time the market based on certain set of rules to avoid drawdowns. They've made only the results public, so the methodology is behind paywall and hence not something I can access, but here's some of the basics that I understood out of it :
When they're long, they're leveraged 2X on futures, essentially amplifying their gains by 2x.
When they're short then I'm not quite sure if I've been able to figure out how they roll. Either they're not invested at all, or they're not leveraged when bearish (or a rule based combination of both)
This way, they can essentially get 2x returns out of the bullish cycles and get 1x (or none) of the drawdown from the bearish cycles or dips. What I believe they're doing :
Dealing with 2 lots of NIFTY futures while maintaing margin in full (since they're effectively 2x leveraging)
They have well defined set of indicators that tell whether market is bullish/bearish and indicators for when to completely sell or enter back.
When bullish, then they roll with both lots and try to maximize gains.
When bearish, then they roll with a single lot, trying to minimize potential downside.
When indicators point to a dip, then they sell both lots and move out completely until indicators start becoming healthier and re-enter.
They backtested this strategy from 2008 onwards (to factor for GFC) and claim that Capitalmind Chase has delivered an annualized return of 37.41 %, while a buy and hold on NIFTY delivered close to 8.20% since 2008. Here's an introduction article which has infographics for the same : https://www.capitalmind.in/2020/07/introducing-capitalmind-chase-a-systematic-index-trend-following-strategy/ Another article that goes into more detail : https://www.capitalmind.in/2020/08/capitalmind-chase-roaring-day-and-night/ They also made a podcast for this, but I followed only half before I dozed off : https://www.capitalmind.in/2020/08/podcast-31-how-trend-following-can-make-buy-and-hold-bette It does look interesting, but the only tricky part is they aren't making the details public (which is understandable since it's premium) which leads to uncertainty. Also apparently they're going to give calls on when to buy/sell to their premium members which I'm not sure how I feel about. But since we have the excel data, it's possible to make some sense out of it and figure out what indicators they're using. It's interesting strategy either way. I'm not very sure on where to go with this, so I'm making an initial version of this post and will update it as I do more research on it, but it does look something promising. Note : This post does not promote leaking their methodology in any way. The aim of this post is merely to try and reverse engineer it instead. Since the primary part of this, i.e indicators and weightages are the most important factor, we are merely trying to figure out what's the correct way to try and mimic something similar.
How Different Nifty Strategies Traders Implementing Outlook of the Market?
People are always looking to earn money by exploring different avenues of investment. Investing in the stock market has become such a venue where people are learning about the different companies listed in the stock market. They study the company by learning about the work the company is doing and going through the fiscal data available in the public domain. After thorough research, people decide whether to buy the share of the company or not. Many agencies help people make the decision and do all the research if the individual doesn't have time for it. Nifty future strategies Countless strategies are implemented by people and agencies who have been working in the stock market for a long time. One of these strategies is Nifty Futures Strategies as the name suggests the trading is done in nifty futures. It is essentially a contract on nifty futures, and the minimum lot size to trade is seventy-five units of nifty. But traders need to be very careful when trading in nifty futures and must consider few points like whether trading in an intraday or long term. In futures, the trade is spread over a spot price, which needs to be checked by the trader before trading. Usually, the monthly spread is determined by the prevailing cost funds. Traders should avoid buying nifty futures when the prices steep premium or at a discounted price compared to the spot prices. This might be due to over positive news in the market or aggressive selling in the future. The position in nifty future trading is that of a leveraged position. When a trader buys a Nifty in a near month, the trader's margin is around 10% for normal trade and 5% for intraday trade. It means the trader in leverage is ten times in normal trade and twenty times in intraday trade. Leverages don't mean only your profit will get multiplied; rather even losses can be multiplied. Hence the trading in the futures should be done by enabling the stop losses & profit target. The trader should be aware of the overnight risk in the nifty future. Even though the stop losses are put by the trader during the day, these orders don't cover the overnight risk. In nifty futures, traders don't earn dividends. In the stock market, "Option" is a financial derivative that gives the trader the right to either hold or sell or buy an underlying asset at a pre-specified date and at a pre-specified price. Nifty option strategies In Nifty option strategies, there are two types of options known as the call option and put option. ● In case of the call option, buyers have the right but no obligation to buy an underlying asset like a stock, commodity, currency, etc. at a pre-specific price and pre-specific date. ● In put option, the buyer has the right but not obligation to sell an underlying asset like a stock, commodity, currency, etc. at a pre-specific price and pre-specific date. The duration of the trade can last months. The options can also be classified into three categories based on the spot price with the strike price during the expiry date; it is known as the moneyness option. In option spread strategies is one of the simplest strategies a trader can implement. This is a multi-leg strategy which involves two or more options that has two or more option transactions. In spread strategy, there is a bull call spread that is best implemented when the trader's outlook for a particular stock and index is not aggressive or moderate. Similarly, a bull put spread, which is also a two-leg strategy, is invoked when the view of the market is moderately bullish.
How Different Nifty Strategies Traders Implementing Outlook of the Market?
People are always looking to earn money by exploring different avenues of investment. Investing in the stock market has become such a venue where people are learning about the different companies listed in the stock market. They study the company by learning about the work the company is doing and going through the fiscal data available in the public domain. After thorough research, people decide whether to buy the share of the company or not. Many agencies help people make the decision and do all the research if the individual doesn't have time for it. https://preview.redd.it/8uxgtbydkif51.png?width=1918&format=png&auto=webp&s=c6301a6a6068b6c70de27d745848ac511feab0a6 Countless strategies are implemented by people and agencies who have been working in the stock market for a long time. One of these strategies is Nifty Futures Strategies as the name suggests the trading is done in nifty futures. It is essentially a contract on nifty futures, and the minimum lot size to trade is seventy-five units of nifty. But traders need to be very careful when trading in nifty futures and must consider few points like whether trading in an intraday or long term. In futures, the trade is spread over a spot price, which needs to be checked by the trader before trading. Usually, the monthly spread is determined by the prevailing cost funds. Traders should avoid buying nifty futures when the prices steep premium or at a discounted price compared to the spot prices. This might be due to over positive news in the market or aggressive selling in the future. The position in nifty future trading is that of a leveraged position. When a trader buys a Nifty in a near month, the trader's margin is around 10% for normal trade and 5% for intraday trade. It means the trader in leverage is ten times in normal trade and twenty times in intraday trade. Leverages don't mean only your profit will get multiplied; rather even losses can be multiplied. Hence the trading in the futures should be done by enabling the stop losses & profit target. The trader should be aware of the overnight risk in the nifty future. Even though the stop losses are put by the trader during the day, these orders don't cover the overnight risk. In nifty futures, traders don't earn dividends. In the stock market, "Option" is a financial derivative that gives the trader the right to either hold or sell or buy an underlying asset at a pre-specified date and at a pre-specified price. https://preview.redd.it/wyeifzxekif51.png?width=1274&format=png&auto=webp&s=b21fa82ca842d4f42a851095833d55cba6ba458b In Nifty option strategies, there are two types of options known as the call option and put option. ● In case of the call option, buyers have the right but no obligation to buy an underlying asset like a stock, commodity, currency, etc. at a pre-specific price and pre-specific date. ● In put option, the buyer has the right but not obligation to sell an underlying asset like a stock, commodity, currency, etc. at a pre-specific price and pre-specific date. The duration of the trade can last months. The options can also be classified into three categories based on the spot price with the strike price during the expiry date; it is known as the moneyness option. In option spread strategies is one of the simplest strategies a trader can implement. This is a multi-leg strategy which involves two or more options that has two or more option transactions. In spread strategy, there is a bull call spread that is best implemented when the trader's outlook for a particular stock and index is not aggressive or moderate. Similarly, a bull put spread, which is also a two-leg strategy, is invoked when the view of the market is moderately bullish.
Ladyboys, stop fucking up! I see your posts and comments, most of you will have to move in with your momma if the losses keep piling up the way things are. Options trading isn't simple, gay boi! What options are for: To create a backtested strategy with a spread that tilts the probability of trading in your favour. You only enter when the odds are in your favour. This is the Hunger Games. And you're Katniss Everdeen in a skimpy bikini. Win this shit. Now, options are usually planned with a weekly or monthly horizon. Check this out: Nifty is currently at 9000. The expiry date is 16 April. You are bearish but are worried because the money printer keeps going Brrrrrr. If you're smart, you create an options trade where if Nifty lands anywhere between 8500 to 9200, you make money! Trades with breakevens like the one listed above could have a 80-90% probability of making money. There are multiple ways to achieve this, of course. You could use a modified butterfly. Or a strangle. Even if the trade is going against you, you can exit with a profit! That's the beauty of options trading, IF executed correctly. If you don't have the requisite knowledge, paper trade. Make option strategies online and post them here. The other Redditors will help you out. Or wait for the mods. One of us will definitely let you know. If they're great, we'll give you a thumbs up and a pat on the butt. If they're shit, we'll tell you how to improve upon that strategy. There are layers to options trading too. I'm sure you've heard of theta decay or VIX being too high or premiums changing. There are tons of other factors which could destroy your trade. Even if your DD was right on, you could be leaving tons of money on the table. Never forget that in most trades with a good reward, the drop off is that you have unlimited risk. UNLIMITED RISK. You like that, you fucking retard? Now, let's assume you're a true Gay Bear who expects Nifty to go all the way to 6500. You've done some research, have some experience and would like to bet some money on your hunch. Fine, it's your cash. Sell Nifty Futures! You still get the added benefits of crazy margins but you don't have to be right about the timing of the trade. All the complicated mumbo jumbo vanishes and all you have to be right about is the market direction. So now, instead of Nifty having to reach 6500 by 16 April, in a future trade, it could touch that level by 16 July and you'd still be able to walk into the sunset with enough gold to give Bappi Lahri a complex. Buying a Nifty 6500 put because you expect Nifty to drop to that number is beyond autistic. You're plain stupid. Switch to investing in liquid gold funds which give you 0.5% over inflation. That's where you belong. Things to absolutely avoid: 1. Entering a trade without a stop loss. 2. Trading without knowing the margin required. 3. Lack of execution. 4. Not knowing the targets. 5. Revenge/emotional trading. 6. Trading without full access to your phone/laptop. 7. Entering naked trades.
Britannia Shares Complete Fundamental Analysis and Future Outlook
Britannia Industries was established in 1892 by a group of British businessmen with an initial investment of INR 295. It is one of India’s oldest existing companies and now a part of the Wadia Group headed by Nusli Wadia. Britannia is one of the most trusted food company in India and operates some well know brands like Good Day, Tiger, NutriChoice, Milk Bikis and Marie Gold. The company was also recently included in the Nifty-50 benchmark index.
Britannia is on a journey to become the №1 Total Foods Company in India. Hence they have recently diversified into Snacks which is INR 25,000 category growing at 20% per annum and Milkshakes which is INR 2,800 category growing at 27% per annum.
Britannia has also launched new products including Croissants, Cream Wafers and Baked salted snacks. The company’s focus is on expanding its markets along with improving cost efficiency and their expansion plan is based on the principle of ‘One new market a year’.
The company’s Dairy business contributes close to 6% of the total revenue and has a direct reach to 100,000+ outlets in India. Britannia Bread is the largest brand in the organized bread market with an annual consumption of over 1+ lakh tonnes in volume and INR 500+ crores in value.
Mr Nusli N Wadia is the Chairman of the company and represents the promoter’s interest.
Mr Varun Berry is the Managing Director and has an experience of over 27+ years with companies like Hindustan Unilever and Pepsico. Beginning with the circumstances of its takeover by the Wadia group in the early 1990s, the company has been mired in several controversies connected to its management. However, it enjoys a large market share and is exceedingly profitable, which helps the company to keep its Investors gratified.
I have evaluated the company on 10 fundamental categories and each has been given a rating out of 5 stars. From this, I have arrived at a combined stock rating for the company. This is the summary of the analysis. You can read the detailed analysis with the excel models on my blog(Check the source link) Source:Britannia Fundamental Analysis and Future Outlook Some insights for the coming years from the analysis, management discussions and con calls are as follows.
The effect of COVID-19 outbreak and the lockdown will be only of revenue loss due to production shutdowns and disrupted supply chains. Since the lockdown, Britannia’s factories are running at 25–30% capacity. Major concerns are demand, distribution and labour crunch for the company in the near future. However, recovery can be seen before the end of FY 2020.
Down-trading can be expected in the low margin products in the coming years especially in the rural region. (Down-trading is reducing the number of features or the quantity of a product to suit the selling price demanded by its customers)
The company is expanding distribution month-after-month. Direct reach is now to 2.2 million outlets and total reach is to 5.5 million outlets. The management is trying to increase it to 6 million in the coming 2 years. Parle’s distribution is at 6.3 million outlets in terms of the total reach but only half of Britannia’s in terms of direct reach.
Britannia is planning to take selective price increases to offset the likely impact of raw material cost inflation. Price hikes will be taken mostly in premium brands, which haven’t seen a price hike in the last 24 months.
The company has solid fundamentals and a good track record of profitability. The only concern is the promoter’s family and management which has time and again involved in controversies. But overall the company still remains a good investment considering its future growth prospects. Subscribe to my Blog: Subscribe — Billion Dollar Valuation Join my Telegram Channel Twitter
Another (somewhat depressing) 80 boxes post for throne
The boxes Legend: Green--the deck to play in this archetype, archetype to beat. Yellow--competitive deck in the current meta with the proper tuning. Orange--not really competitive, or just worse than another variant. Red--not really playable anymore, here for posterity/historical record keeping. TL;DR: Aggro--combrei or yetis. Midrange: FJS carver or Xenan strangers. Control: FTJ. Combo: FTS Talir. Some 2F aggressive midrange decks are also feasible. Everything else is either not recommended, or dead. Commentary: COMBREI: Combrei aggro is still going to be very strong. The ECQ winner didn't need to 3+1 stand together, and teacher of humility + Aamri's choice is just some next level bullshit. If you want to curve a bit higher for something like The Great Parliament, SoU, or prideleader, those options are also available to you, but I still think aggro is probably the way to go. ELYSIAN: community: delete golem. DWD: understood, deleting Elysian. Elysian tempo went from a really cool deck to dead practically overnight as everything along its curve got hit by no small amount (snowcrust, borderlands lookout, teacher, spellshaper, Jennev's 3+1 ability, Daring Gryffyn). That said, deadly evenhanded elysian is still a very solid deck between distillation, prideleader, and the touch of battle wipes. FELN: nightfall berserk depended heavily on a 3/2 Jennev merchant, her ability to 3+1, one of which included a 2-cost scream. All these things are gone, so I think this deck goes down in history now. CoCu Feln or some other high-curve midrange may be marginally playable, and then your Rost gets hit by madness and you question all your life choices. CoCu Feln that curved to big Vara is there for history's sake, and I still think reanimator will at least be ladder playable in a non-embarrassing capacity by 8-smug marketing grasping at shadows. The loss of 3+1 moves it from a green to a yellow, though. STONESCAR: I've seen some shrine aggro lists running around, but they felt a bit all-in and janky to me in a world of prideleaders. I still think SS aggro/mid can only be so bad when Chacha is still phenomenal, instigator's great, and so is warleader. The 4-slot getting blasted by nerfs absolutely hurts, though. Also, don't play volatility; it's not worth it. Means to an End reanimator is just there for history's sake. RAKANO: Rakano aggro (I.E. sharpshooter warhelm) just feels too inconsistent at doing something on a high enough power level to really feel competitive to me, gunslingers don't really have a payoff, and onis are garbage as far as aggro goes owing to lack of health increases before 4 power. On the midrange end, a deck that can play enforcer and big Icaria can only be so bad, though this is also out of a kindness to LocoPojo. I don't think valks are super-competitive owing to a whole slew of nerfs on the interaction suite (torch, defiance, vanquish all hit), privilege of rank (gutted), and two of its threats (Sediti and Rizahn), but enforcer + Icaria do a lot to carry the deck. Answer the Call here for history's sake. PRAXIS: Rally tokens, at this point, I think you can throw in the towel, as you just get destroyed by anything playing prideleader, or anyone else playing mandatory attachment hate because shrine to carver is insane. Maybe I'm wrong here and some daring soul will try again. On the midrange end, the HotV nerf is just too keenly felt, and if you're in Praxis, you're essentially trading away Makkar's stranger and shadow interaction for nerfed torch, Ramba, and Kairos in the market that you can't 2 or 3+1 anymore. Not a trade I'm willing to take. Praxis used to have a playable Endra deck, which is no longer the case, and death of 3+1 kills any forge decks, whether Praxis or splash P/S. XENAN: I suppose you can play Xenan elves, and you're not just completely reliant on sunset stone like praxis tokens leans on obelisk. However, a nerf to lookout, and the loss of the ability to 3+1 machinations means what was what I'd call bottom of yellow is now squarely in orange territory. And DWD couldn't even buff Livia. Sad panda. In the midrange category, you have the premium conventional time midrange deck of the format IMO in Xenan strangers. Makkar's stranger, Grodov's stranger, cat and Tocas in whatever quantities you wish. Terrific deck is terrific; if you're a good units junkie, this is the deck for you. Talir 1.0 is here for posterity. ARGENPORT: I ran into an Unseen Aggro on ladder and it wrecked me, but the deck hasn't been prolific at all. I imagine it makes some upgrades to the expedition variant, such as with a better power base, better removal (choice of suffocate and annihilate), and most likely Valkyrie Enforcer. A bit of an unknown quantity to me at this point, tentatively putting it at orange. At midrange, I'm putting in the AP valks grinder list that saw some play, but it's probably not too well-positioned these days. You don't want to play Makto when there's a tier 1 madness deck. Revenge Hour is here for posterity, no longer playable thanks to slumbering stone's expedition nerf. HOORU: I saw BK try to make some sort of Hooru combat tricks/blitz deck work not too long ago. Maybe there's something there. At midrange, Uelo and Jadehorn once again give reason to look at a pledge package in Hooru. In control, the usual collection of card draw and premium sweepers Hooru has access to allows you to play a classic style of control deck, but Rost isn't something I want to play into madness, Sanctum isn't something I want to play into FTJ, and the J variant lost a lot of power from the privilege nerf. FTJ essentially scratches this same itch and packs a higher power level. SKYCRAG: yetis are possibly the premiere aggro deck in the game right now. Lucia built an amazing deck. Going to put Skycrag dragons in yellow as a kindness to LightsOutAce (and [GC]Anyway, who was working on this archetype in discord). Ace doesn't write about garbage decks. I've run into it a few times and haven't been absolutely blown away by it, but the deck seems solid enough. In control, we have spellcrag, but between slow torch and loss of 3+1, this deck is on the verge of red tier, though I'm holding out hope that skycrag's blazing salvo market might be able to salvage it. Kennadins is here for posterity. Maybe one more good spell or dragon next to Xo, Kenna, and EoH revives it with a volatility package in the future. JENNEV: you can try and play Jennev midrange, but despite weathering so many nerfs when all the merchants kept getting hit, eventually, the HotV + 0/3 Auralian + slow torch nerfs finally did the trick. Still, you can play prideleader and Grodov's Stranger with peak, but you're most likely just better off playing FTJ. I've seen some Jennev temporal lists around as well in the past, but they're most likely jank and certainly not recommended by now. Jenndra is here for posterity; RIP sweet princess and all your fun combo decks. Oh, I forgot to list Diogo Combo as a red for obvious reasons. WINCHEST: Gunslingers used to be a deck, but power levels have just passed it by at this point. Moving onto midrange, FJS carver may be the deck to play in throne right now. I skyrocketed to master this month grinding Ackerman's (dead now that 3+1 is gone) and boxer's variants alike, and the deck is a great example of what DWD just happens to anoint as a winner. Carver gets an effective 8 copies thanks to press-gang, Kato's way undercosted, and Shrine just allows the deck to win games it has absolutely no business being in because LOL OPOP. Strange Burglar is also an absolutely obscene engine, but the 6 power for the first activation means it's relegated to the market. Winchest "midrange" has had to once again ask Icaria to carry the deck after a whopping 15 nerfs IIRC (8 targeted if memory serves, and some more from Stonescar collateral damage, and avigraft before all of those). You can't be a goodstuff deck if your best cards are above average, and the rest of your cards went from great to mediocre. Winchest Endra here for posterity (a common refrain). KERENDON: welp, so much for 3+1'ing machinations. I still think if you want to goof off with 3F aggro, minotaurs has enough fixing for a very simple power base that you can technically play them, and hammer of unity is still a nifty little card. I'm fairly confident there's a Dark Alessi build out there owing to similar shenanigans to what FJS carver does (press-gang for her, revive her with shadowlands guide), and Hojan + 1-cost killer provides a unit, ramp, and a huge amount of lifegain. Nevertheless, loss of 3+1 on machinations, stand, and sword of unity is going to be a major pain, and takes the deck from bottom yellow to squarely orange. TJS control was something I saw a long time ago (was never good), and TaliGrinva is here for posterity--that deck moved to FTS now, more on it later. AURALIAN: whether it was rat cage or the more aggressive relic aggro, prideleader essentially seals this faction up. Auralian Elves would be more playable if the rate on their cards weren't as low as it is, since Zende + sunset stone just begs to do something very cool, but costs matter. Auralian mask of torment was something I brewed up a long time ago, and the deck is as playable as mask of torment is. IXTUN: not a single currently playable deck. Blitz was something to abuse palace in the market for free wins, FJP Plate existed before markets, DWD smashed Ixtun Garden with nerfs on torch, defiance, and garden itself, and any Endra combo present in these colors is deader than dead. FTJ / CREATION: stand together + grenadin cards might not be so bad these days, but is stand really worth losing shrine for? Probably not, IMO. Nevertheless, the big reason to be in these colors is the format's premiere control deck, which I now call FTJ Arcanum, as that's the primary common denominator, as there are various builds. Some go with the conventional Icaria package, while others go with a volatility package, as this is the only faction combination capable of running it. No matter which way you slice it, Xo juggling, Icaria, a hideously powerful site, your first Harsh Rule on demand--it's hard to ask for more here. Maybe one more draw spell in Praxis that isn't garbage. FTS / DESTRUCTION: so, basically, two things going on here: I remember mgallop goofing off with an FTS carver deck, with the selling point being display of destruction + shrine to carver (Karvet) being able to give a fatty like Grodov's Stranger or Azindel Revealed charge way ahead of schedule, while still getting almost all the same KarveKato/Shrine "OPOP" nonsense that FJS does, aside from press-gang (who, by the way, is also very scary when getting lategame-relevant 1-drops like Alessi or Carver). Last I checked, the deck also ran combustion cell. However, the real gem in this tricolor faction is Talir Combo. Long story short: 5 power + display of destruction on a merchant + Talir + last chance for said merchant = free Kairos from the market that draws 6 cards, including a bunch of time destiny units that either wipe the opponent's board while drawing you a full hand and giving you a full board, or killing the opponent outright. The only exception, spectacularly enough, is a reanimator list that's ALSO going off, but now that reanimator got kneecapped, this is probably the go-to deck for those looking to scratch that "do nothing for a few turns, then make fireworks happen" itch. Just a bit of forewarning: playing this deck is HARD. It's the reason that only Almost can pilot the carveKato variant, though BlackIce has a more conventional time midrange build, and I hope he'll share it on EWC soon. JPS / PURPOSE: nothing much going on here as far as I can tell. I suppose one can play a dark Hooru control style deck which I suppose I'd put at the bottom of orange because wisdom + honor of claws + harsh rule can only be so bad, but again, if you're after this sort of effect, FTJ just does better at scratching this itch. Dark Blitz was something Almost played at one point, but at this point, the deck needs to be drawing 2 cards every turn to function with how fast it can vomit a bunch of combat tricks which might not get it lethal. JPS never really had a combo or a midrange deck of note. FPS / MENACE: RIP Haunted Highway. While you can, once again, scream highwayman, and defiance isn't that amazing anymore, we're long past the point in throne that a charging champion of fury (that's now a 3/1) is an acceptable first play on turn 3. I've run into some Felnscar dragons on ladder, and I have to say, it's really underwhelming. I think we're past the point in the game's history that Black-Sky Harbinger is effective as a vanilla 6-drop. Felnscar Control existed at one point in set 1 (I won my only ETS with it =P), but any attempts to rebuild it have not gone well, and with maiden being a 2/3 (why she's not back at 2/4, especially in this carver meta is an endless source of frustration with DWD with me), this is just not an archetype you want to be near right now. And of course, pour one out for Endra's best combo form in the form of Endra Scream/Haunted Harpway/Screaming Endra Brigade. That she got blasted so soon is just so sad. The 3+1 market nerf AND nuking golem (instead of scream) might have made her decks tolerable. I personally didn't pilot this deck well enough to love it in its heyday, but I appreciated the fact that it existed. Now, it's a historical footnote. TJP / TRADITION: a bunch of fringe playable decks here, though none that I'd really recommend. Maybe there's a world in which you can combine JJ flyers with majestic skies, but in the reality of getting blasted by insignia up-tempo 2F decks, you put yourself at a disadvantage playing any 3F that can't generate obscene amounts of value like carver or FTJ. Good old Temporal Control is a deck you can also potentially play, but again, trading off Arcanum and best-in-class finishers (burying someone in volatility card advantage or Icaria) for Pit of Lenekta? Not where I want to be.
Perpetual futures were a new concept two years ago, but they have since become more mainstream. While BitMEX’s perpetual futures are the best-known, competitors like Bybit have been making perpetual futures increasingly mainstream. Perpetual futures contracts are contracts with no set expiry date. They “rollover” perpetually. Bybit offers perpetual futures contracts with up to 100:1 leverage. Another unique thing about Bybit is that the exchange allows users to trade in total anonymity. As long as you have a verified email address or phone number, you’ll have no issue making trades on Bybit. No KYC verification is required or even available. As far as we can tell, there are no limits on the value of trades you can make with an unverified account. Bybit was founded in 2018 with the goal of providing cryptocurrency derivatives trading, including perpetual contracts. The platform caters to both individual retail clients and professional derivatives traders. As of 2019, Bybit claims to have 24-hour trading volume exceeding $500 million USD and over 100,000 registered users. Bybit also emphasizes speed. The platform dedicates over 100,000 transactions per second (TPS) to every trading pair listed on its platform, which means users should have no issue making trades across any pair. Bybit has also suffered no reported hacks or security breaches across its young history. Bybit has had no known major security breaches, hacks, or user data leaks since launching in 2018. The company emphasizes low-level and high-level security. The exchange is fully SSL encrypted to reduce the risk of phishing attacks. Bybit has also implemented a hierarchical deterministic (HD) cold wallet storage system for all its assets. Another nifty security feature we appreciate with Bybit is the risk management system for futures contract settlement. Similar to certain other futures contract trading platforms, Bybit operates an insurance-like fund to deal with deficits in contract settlements. In situations where a trader gets liquidated at a level below the bankruptcy price, the funds are replaced with the initial margin that the liquidated trader had at the outside of the trade. The difference between the price at which the trader is liquidated and the bankruptcy price will be deducted from the insurance fund. Other platforms will “give users a haircut” and deduct funds from every user’s account in this situation. As with other exchanges with minimal regulations, Bybit discloses little information about its team. We know the exchange is headquartered in Singapore and registered in the British Virgin Islands, for example. We also know the names of certain employees and the CEO, which is more information than we get from other exchanges. Bybit certainly isn’t the most transparent exchange out there, but it’s more transparent than many of its shady alternatives. Bybit is led by CEO Ben Zhou, and you can view additional employee info at Bybit’s LinkedIn page. In the screenshot above, we’ve set the percentage at which we’re willing to take profit as 50% of the trading value. Bybit automatically shows you the expected profit in BTC. Bybit also shows the expected loss on the screen on the stop loss you have set (in this case, $8800). You can also make market orders to get an asset at the best available price, or set up conditional orders to set an advanced stop loss for either a limit or market order. With a conditional order, you can post only for a long position or close on the trigger for a short position. Closing the trigger means you have to enter a price at which your order will enter the order book. When the trigger price is reached, the order will be delivered to the order book.
Can someone help me understand what's the turnover we need to declare while filing ITR? I understand we have to do audit if turnover is above 2Cr but my issue is in calculating the turnover. I use Zerodha and when I check the P&L report for the year 2019-20, I can see they have mentioned total turnover in the beginning of the F&O tab. But that seems way too less, or my understanding of turnover wrong? My total turnover over is showing around 1.5L even though I had bought two lots of Nifty Futures (150 shares) using their margins which itself would come around 18L and several such trades using f&o margins. Is it because the margins are not included while calculating the turnover?
Real Time Data from NSE, BSE & MCX is distributed to various data vendors as 4 different levels. These levels are mainly based upon the amount of RealTime Market depth (order book) provided by the exchanges. This precision and the knowledge of Market Pricing is far more important for the day Traders than for a long term investor.
Market depth is the order book or an electronic list of buy and sell orders. This list is organized by price level and updated to reflect real-time market activity. Most of today’s trading platforms offer some type of market depth display. This allows the traders to see the “buy and sell orders”, waiting to be executed. This could include the best bid and ask prices and the size of all the bids and offers. The Market Depth, therefore, mainly segregates, the different levels of the real time data feed from the NSE, BSE & MCX.
Level I Real Time Data from NSE, BSE & MCX
Level 1 data includes only the Real Time Data of the first level in the order book. This includes the Best Bid and Best Ask, plus the total accumulated Volumes Displayed as Bid Size and Ask Size. Depending on the exchange the number of orders might also be made available for each side as order. Currently, the number of orders are not provided by any exchange in India. The Basic market data is known as level 1 market data, and mainly includes the following information:
Bid price: The highest price that a trader has offered and is willing to buy the asset at.
Best Bid size: The number of shares, lots or contracts that are available at the bid price.
Ask price: The lowest price that a trader has offered and is willing to sell the asset at.
Best Ask size: The number of shares, lots or contracts that are available at the ask price.
Last Traded Price: The price of the most recent trade.
Traded Quantity: The number of shares, lots or contracts traded in the most recent trade.
Level 1 market data provides all of the information needed to trade using most trading systems. If you trade a price action or indicator based strategy, then Level 1 market data should satisfy your informational needs. Level 1 Data is also sufficient for complex indicators, including Market Profile, Market Balance, Delta Divergence etc. If you are not doing Depth of Market Trading, Level 1 data is all you need. Scalpers who trade based on changes in how other traders are bidding and offering, will need Level 2 Market Data.
This type of quotation system is a step up from the Level 1. Data providers offer Level 2 market data at a premium to Level 1. It offers extra information that is neither useful for normal day traders nor for long term investors. Level 2 market data is also known as the ‘order book’. Level 2 market data shows the trader a bigger picture of the market order flow. This because it shows the orders that are currently pending for the market. It is also known as the ‘depth of market’ (DOM) or ‘market depth’. This is because it shows the number of shares or lots that are available at each bid and ask prices. In Level 1, the trader was only able to see the best prices for buying and selling. He could not look any deeper into the details of other less competitive orders on the system. The distribution of noncompetitive orders is important to institutional investors who plan to buy or sell large blocks of shares. Depending on the exchange the level of market depth (of the order book) can be 5, 10 or 20 levels. Normally the level of depth is 5 for Level 2, Real Time Data from NSE, BSE & MCX.
How can Level 2 Market Data be Viewed ?
Market depth data can be viewed on a separate Level 2 window or on a price ladder. Because market depth is in real time, it changes constantly throughout the trading session. A “Price Ladder” or “DOM Display” shows each price level in the middle column. The number of buyers at each price level on the left, and the number of sellers on the right. https://preview.redd.it/wxsupr4eldo41.jpg?width=287&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=cadf9b6371b1e0418eba9a0e79ecbc835af9c472 Another way to view market depth is to overlay it on a price chart, as shown in “Charting depth” (below). This is the same data that would appear on a Level 2 window or DOM. The only difference between the two is the visual presentation. In this example, the levels of market depth are displayed over the right-hand side of a price chart, next to the various prices. Green bars represent the buy orders. The size of each green bar reflects the relative number of shares or lots that buyers would like to purchase. Red bars indicate market participants who want to sell. The size of each red bar reflects the number of shares or lots that traders would like to sell. https://preview.redd.it/jn1a8anfldo41.jpg?width=287&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=db655173a57b7099762034d47b9c014f711f210e
Level 3 Real Time Data from NSE
NSE Real-Time Data also provides a 20 level deep order book. Actually, this is a subset of the Level 2 Data, known as Level 3. Here, Level 2 provides market depth data up to 5 best bid and ask prices. Level 3 provides market depth data up to 20 best bid and ask prices. Everything else in Level 3, is the same as Level 2. More details of the various Levels Provided by NSE can be obtained from the NSE Website (Data Vending Info).
The Tick by Tick Feed is provided by the NSE. This feed consists of each and every order or a change in the order. It includes:-
A new order accepted & added to the order book
Any order canceled
Or, any order modified and added to order book. It contains the new and old image (i.e. price and quantity) of the order.
Trade – when any order is fully or partially executed.
Market Orders added to the book
Fully or Partially Traded Market Orders
This feed sends a huge amount of data. For just one symbol, say, the NIFTY future, the number of trades goes to 200 – 300 trades per second. And this much data is not easy to handle. It also needs better applications to churn out meaningful information from this data. This feed works best on collocated servers and LAN of the exchange. If you required this feed at your location, from a data vendor, you would need a leased line and also a specific software different from Amibroker or NinjaTrader, which is able to crunch the huge data flowing from the exchange with micro second-time stamps. And if you were able to do that, you would also need to be able to trade instantly. Therefore, this feed is not for the retails traders or fund houses. This feed is best suited for High-Frequency Trading (HFT) with servers co-located at the exchange.
Main Difference between Level 1 and Level 2 Market Data?
If you are a new trader, then you only need level I market data. You can always add Level II data, later, if you wish. Level 1 market data provides all of the trading information that is needed to display the Price Charts. This is what you will use to perform Analysis and make trading decisions. For many traders, watching the constant flurry of changing bids and ask Prices on the Level 2 will result in information over-load. This could actually have a detrimental effect as opposed to a positive one.
Can Level 2 Data be useful?
Yes, because it not only shows, where the price is now but where it is likely to be in the near future. Some trading strategies might require Level 2 market data. Typically, this data be used in a scalping strategy, where traders take advantage of short-term patterns are seen in the bidding/offering activities of other traders. Also, for example, if a big fund wished to sell 5 crore shares in a medium-sized company. Using level 1 data, they may see that the highest bid price on the market is Rs.2000 for 50k shares. The fund manager will now know that they can sell their first 50k shares at Rs. 2000. However, the fund managers will have to accept less in order to shift the rest of their holding. Therefore they would then trade at the next best bid price, and so on, receiving marginally less for their shares each time they exhaust an order in the market place. It would, therefore, benefit the fund manager to be able to assess how quickly the competitiveness of the bid prices trail off before they place a large block of shares for sale. This is called – being able to see the ‘depth’ of the market. If the competitive orders are thin on the ground then they may decide to delay their the sale or only sell a small batch. As a result of strong demand; the fund may be able to offload its shares without moving the share price down too much and achieving the best deal for their account holders.
This demonstrates why level 2 data is quite pointless for your average day trader. Trading in such small quantities will rarely exhaust the bid price or offer price which they could see on level 1. Other than very large institutions, the only other viable market participant who could fully utilize such data would be a high-speed, automatic trading the algorithm which pays extremely low commissions. Hope, I have been able to give you an insight on the various Levels of RealTime Market Data & their implications in trading.
A directory prospect is a derivative, similar to a stock future, whose value is dependent on the value of the underlying, in this case, the index like the S&P CNX Nifty or BSE Sensex, and market profile trading strategies. By making a trade-in inventory bank nifty future, an investor is buying and selling the basket of stocks comprising the index, in their respective weights. Stock index futures are traded in terms of order flow trading strategies. Each treaty would be to either purchase or sell a limited value of the index. The amount of the deal would be the lot size multiplied by the index value. About Nifty futures Nifty futures are index futures where the order flow underlying is the S&P CNX Nifty index. In India, bank nifty futures trading initiated in 2000 on the National Stock Exchange (NSE). For auction market theory contracts, the permitted lot size is 50, and in multiples of 50. Like additional destinies contracts, Nifty fortunes treaties also have a three-month trading progression -- the near-month, the next month and the far-month. After the expiry of the near-month contract, a replacement lease of three-month duration would be introduced on subsequent trading day. Investors can trade Nifty futures by having a margin amount in their account. This margin may be a percentage of the contract value. It's usually about 10-12 per cent. Why do you have to choose them? Hedging. In simple terms, hedging may be a strategy that helps limit losses. Exposure to stock is like exposure to an index. this is often because most stocks move in tandem to the market. Exposure to index futures helps hedge this risk — speculative gains. If you're sure about future market movements, you'll make profits through index futures. If you bullish on the market buy index futures. If bearish, you ought to sell index futures. How do they work? You enter into a Nifty derivative instrument at a specified index value. On the expiry of the agreement, the investor's profits would be the difference between the extent of the index on expiry and therefore, the level laid out in the derivative instrument at the time of purchase. Strategies to Follow: Small stock, extended index futures. There are times once you sell the capital, but there's an upside within the market, thus leading to potential lost profits. Index futures assist you in mitigating this risk. By buying index futures once you are short on the stock, you'll minimise the number of potential benefits lost: equity portfolio, quick index futures. There are times once you own a portfolio and are uncomfortable about market conditions. You'll hedge this risk by selling index futures. The concept vests on the very fact that each collection has index exposure and risks are accounted for by fluctuations within the index. Long Stock, Short Index Futures Suppose you're long 500 shares of Reliance Industries at the worth of Rs 1,000 per share; spot Nifty is at 5,000; and Nifty futures is at 5,020. To protect your Rs 5 lakh (Rs 500,000) position from a market downturn, you would like to sell 100 Nifty futures. Suppose on the expiry date; the spot/futures Nifty is at 4,750 (5 per cent fall). On closing, both the positions, you'd earn Rs 2,000. Your job in Reliance Industries would have dropped by Rs 25,000, and therefore the short Nifty would have gained Rs 27,000 [i.e., 100 x (5,020-4,750)] Short Stock, Long Index Futures Suppose you're short 400 shares of Infosys Technologies at the worth of Rs 2,500 per share; spot Nifty is at 5,000; and Nifty futures is at 5,050. To protect your Rs 10 lakh (Rs 1 million) position from a market upside, you would like to shop for 200 Nifty futures. If on expiry, the spot/futures Nifty is at 5,250 (5 per cent rise), on closing both positions, you lose nothing. Your job in Infosys would end in a loss Rs 50,000, and therefore the short Nifty would have gained Rs 50,000 [i.e., 200x(5,250-5000)] Hedging Portfolio Risk Suppose the spot Nifty is at 5,000 and consequently the three-month Nifty futures at 5,015. To guard a portfolio of Rs 5 lakh (Rs 500,000) from a drop by the market, you would like to sell 100 December Nifty futures. Suppose on the expiry date; the spot/futures Nifty is at 4,500 (10 per cent fall). Your hedging strategy would earn you a profit of Rs 51,500[i.e., 100x(5,015-4500)], which compensates you for the Rs 50,000 (10 per cent) fall in your portfolio. Costs Inherent With Trading Strategies: There's a reason professional traders once only employed active trading strategies. Not only does having an in-house brokerage reduce the prices related to high-frequency trading, but it also ensures better trade execution. Lower commissions and better performance are two elements that improve the profit potential of the strategies. Significant hardware and software purchases are typically required to implement these strategies successfully. additionally, to real-time market data, these costs make active trading somewhat prohibitive for the individual trader, although not altogether unachievable This is why passive and indexed strategies that take a buy-and-hold stance offer lower fees and trading costs, also as smaller taxable events within the event of selling a profitable position. Still, passive strategies cannot beat the market since they hold a broad market index. Active traders seek 'alpha', in hopes that trading profits will exceed costs and bring a successful long-term strategy. Thank you!
DAIhard: the unkillable crypto/fiat gateway. Any country, any fiat. Proudly announcing the open beta on mainnet.
Note this is an old post. Please see the re-launch post here, which went much more smoothly :)
EDIT: A critical bug has been revealed to us, so we've disabled the interface while we re-organize.
For the Solidity devs, the bug has to do with the open function, which can be called by anyone to become the initiator and recall the funds as if they created the trade. The interface is disabled on mainnet, but still works on Kovan for anyone who wants to poke around. It seems that only one user, aside from our seed trades, was vulnerable. u/adamaid_321, who found and exploited the flaw, has said he will return the funds to their original owners in a few hours. (u/adamaid_321 was professional to work with, and kind, given the situation.) Tomorrow we'll write a post-mortem, which is ironic for something that was supposed to be unkillable. Hoo boy. ORIGINAL POST:
DAIhard: the unkillable crypto/fiat gateway. Any country, any fiat. Proudly announcing the open beta on mainnet.
Here is a legitimate concern most of us are familiar with:
To enter or exit the crypto economy, we rely on exchanges, which track their users, impose limits, and are coupled to their jurisdiction. And for all we know, any day now governments could start shutting down the exchanges altogether. In light of this, can we honestly say that crypto is anonymous, limtiless, borderless, immune to regulation, and unstoppable?
To really address this concern, we need a completely decentralized fiat-to-crypto on-ramp platform: something that extends the benefits of crypto to the very act of moving between the fiat and crypto economies. But the design of such a platform is far from obvious. (Bisq comes close, but contains some crucial centralized compoments.) We believe we've found the solution. We are proud to present DAIHard, currently in open beta on mainnet (and Kovan). If you want to jump right in, we reccomend first watching Using DAIHard to buy and sell DAI (12 min), then diving in and giving it a shot with a small amount of DAI. (Feel free to try it on Kovan if mainnet is too scary at first.)
Okay, but What Is It?
DAIHard extends many of the promises of crypto (borderless, anonymous, limitless, unstoppable) into the exchange mechanism itself, allowing anyone anywhere to bypass centralized exchanges and the control they impose. More concretely, DAIHard is a platform, run on smart contracts, for forming one-off crypto/fiat exchanges with other users, in which:
The method of fiat transfer is open-ended, but agreed upon up-front (for example: bank transfer, cash handoff, transfer of online credit, or really anything the offer creator thinks up).
You and the counterparty can communicate via end-to-end encrypted chat to coordinate the fiat transfer (i.e. communicate bank account number, or describe a cash drop location).
In the last phase, the Seller can choose to burn the DAI instead of releasing it to the Buyer (but he can't get it back). This credible threat is what makes the platform reliable in the absence of centralized control or moderation. For more on this see the DAIHard Game Theory medium article (10 min read).
You Need DAI (and ETH, for gas) to Use The Tool (At Least For Now).
This is the biggest drawback of the platform in its current state: if you want to buy DAI, you need 1/3 of the purchase amount to put into the contract as a burnable deposit. Put another way, if you only have 10 DAI now, you can only open a buy offer for 30 DAI, and must wait for it to complete before using the newly bought DAI to open up a bigger offer. (The 1/3 ratio will be customizeable in a future version, but even if it's set to 0 (which comes with its own problems), the Buyer still needs ETH to pay gas.) Most tragically of course, this means that if you don't already have some crypto, you can't use this tool to get crypto. This comes from the fact that both parties must have "skin in the game" for the game theory to work, and a smart contract can't hold fiat--only crypto. We have solid ideas on how to address this drawback in the not-too-distant future, but for now it's time to launch this thing. We'll write more about these ideas soon.
Dangerous and Scary To Use
In rare cases, a user may have to burn DAI. In all cases, the user must risk the credible threat of burning DAI. DAIHard Game Theory explains why this is necessary. A cautious, rational user can gather information (probably via our subreddit!) about how people have used the tool, successfully and unsuccessfully. They can then create a buy or sell offer with wisely chosen settings based on what has worked for others. Other cautious, rational users can find this offer and commit to the trade if they dare. We expect the vast majority of committed trades should involve rational, cautious users, and should therefore resolve happily. But each trade must contain a credible risk of burning DAI, and inevitably there will be sloppy trades that result in burns. It will be interesting to see how long it takes for the first burn to occur. Unlike the previous issue, this drawback will stick around: credible risk is absolutely necessary for the platform to function without centralized control.
The core of the whole system is the Factory contract. It has no owner, as well as no suicide or pause code. Barring some unknown bug, it cannot be stopped, and will happily open new offers for anyone who has the DAI and can pay the gas cost in ETH, and will also list all created trades for anyone with access to Ethereum. This will remain so for as long as Ethereum remains functional. The HTML/JS front-end (built in Elm, by the way, with the lovely elm-ethereum!) is currently hosted on Github pages, which is centralized--but even if Github takes down the page and deletes the code, it's a minor step to get the page hosted on IPFS (which is on our near-term roadmap in any case). Like Toastycoin, this thing was immortal the moment it was deployed (even more immortal than RadarRelay, for example, which does rely on an ownership role). Both DAIHard and Toastycoin (and probably whatever we build next) will last for as long as a single Ethereum node continues mining, and it will remain easy to use as long as someone can find the HTML/JS front-end and the Metamask plugin.
No Sign Up, No Limits: All you Need is Love Metamask
It's smart contracts all the way down, so DAIHard never asks any nosy questions--if you have Metamask installed and set up, with some ETH and DAI, you can immediately open or commit to a trade. (In fact, we're so inclusive, even machines are allowed--no CAPTCHA here!) You're limited only by the collateral you put up, so if you have 10,000 DAI you could open up a buy offer for 30,000 DAI (or a sell offer for 10,000 DAI) right now. We do reccommend trying the tool out first with a small amount of DAI... But we're not your mom! Do what you want!
It simply doesn't matter where you are, because DAIHard doesn't need to interface with any particular jurisdiction or payment system to work. DIAHard works by incentivizing people (or robots?) to navigate the particular real-world hurdles of bank transfers, cash drops, or other fiat transfer methods. These incentives work whether you're in America, Zimbabwe, or the Atlantic; and they would work whether the "fiat" is USD, seashells, or Rai Stones.
Any Fiat Type, and Highly Customizeable
Here are some examples of the types of trades you could open on DAIHard.
Sell 200 DAI for $220 USD, granted they bring the cash to you by tomorrow afternoon in Central Park, NYC.
Buy 20 DAI with a $30 gift card for Amazon AWS that you were never going to use.
Sell 20 DAI in exchange for a $20 Steam game.
While in Vietnam, sell 200 DAI to someone for €180 anytime in the next two weeks, provided they deposit it into your German bank account.
Buy 30 DAI for 8,000 ZWD, delivered anonymously by cash drop, sometime within the next month.
Buy 500 DAI for $550 via PayPal, but wait 3 weeks for before the DAI is released, (so the paypal transaction can't be reversed).
As the DAIHard community grows, users will doubtless find much more creative ways to use the system, and we will discover together which types of trades are reliable and which are more risky. Because users can set their own margins and phase timeout settings, we expect even the riskiest trades remain available on the marketplace, with higher margins or longer phase periods. In a future version, we will open up more options to the user creating the offer--for example, allow modifying the default 1/3 buyer's deposit to some other ratio.
Extensible by Third Parties
Do you have some nifty idea for how to display and organize user reputation? Or maybe some idea for how trades could be chained togeher? Maybe you'd like to design a notification system for DAIHard? Maybe you just want a different color scheme! Well, you won't need our permission to do any of this. Any tool that watches the same Factory contract will share the pool of trades, regardless of which tool actually creates the trade.
This Is a Big Fucking Deal
DAIHard is a turning point in crypto and a breakthrough in decentralized markets, and is an irreversible augmentation of the Ethereum platform. What we now have is a gateway to crypto completely devoid of centralized components--rendering entry and exit unkillable, flexible, borderless, and private. Centralized exchanges, and the control they impose, can now be bypassed by anyone with ETH and DAI.
Adversus Cap Weighting (part 2c): Wells Fargo / Samsonite(1971), How cap weighting and the S&P500 became the norm for indexing
TL;DR version: The first index fund started out as an equal weighted index of all NYSE stocks then gradually migrated to a cap weighted index of the SP500 in 2 steps. This is another post in the continuing story about the evolution to the modern index funds demonstrating how much of the evolution was situational to specific events. In particular that choices were made in response to specific events that wouldn't necessarily hold up in all times and all places. We left off our story with two subplots disconnected. The first was the Samsonite corporation asking their pension fund manager, Wells Fargo, to use an indexing strategy rather than taking on stock picking risk. The second was the mandate given to John Bogle the new CEO of the Wellington Management company by Walter Morgan to transform the firm for the times and his merger with a go-go fund managers. Both our heroes are heading into the Nifty-Fifty years when a group 50 large cap growth stocks were moved up to PEs in the 50-100 range following the devastation of the 1968 towards small and midcap growth. I suspect most readers know how these subplots connect but I hope some of the details are of interest. We'll start with Wells Fargo and the birth of the first index fund. Jesse Schwayder had founded Shwayder Trunk Manufacturing Company in 1910. Their most popular product was a suitcase called the Samsonite which became the focus of the company as this large family business expanded to become one of the world's largest luggage companies and a household brand in the United States. In 1971 Jesse's grandson Keith Shwayder graduated from the University of Chicago having studied modern portfolio theory while in school. He was starting off as a vice president in the family business and decided reforming the pension plan to make it line with portfolio theory would be one of his early initiatives. Mac McQuown in the in the management sciences department at Wells Fargo was thinking about the problem of what Wells Fargo's response to the revelations of modern portfolio theory. The idea of running a pension fund using modern portfolio theory and possibly making history struck both men as an opportunity. McQuown recruited William Fouse an extremely bright but disgruntled employee at Mellon (obituary) to be the portfolio manager for this new endeavor. Fouse was a proponent of classic value investing considering Burr's The Theory of Investment Value, Bill Sharpe (Capital Asset Pricing Model, Sharpe ratio), Merton Miller (Capital Structure Irrelevance Principle) and Eugene Fama (Efficient Market Hypothesis, 3 factor model of investment returns). Shwayder believed in an efficient market hypothesis and wanted to avoid any stock selection criteria, rather the idea for the fund would be to mirror the market cheaply. Given this mandate what wasn't clear to Fouse is what was meant by "mirroring the market". When it came to indexes in 1971 the most well known index was a price weighted index, the Dow Jones industrial Average. Price weighted indexed was a late 19th century strategy designed so that a trader in the stock pits at an exchange could visually compute or estimate the index and get a sense of the direction of the market. Was it up or down and by how much. If you look at a chart of the SP500 vs. the Dow over short periods they track pretty well. However doing things like halving your holdings when a stock split made no sense for running a portfolio. No one would have thought the Dow was the right index. Even today with a tremendous number of indexing strategies we can see that every single price weighted ETF is simply tracking the Dow Jones Industrial or Transportation average. The next most popular index was from a company that been publishing an independent stock news letter for 40 years. The Arnold Bernhard & Co. AB & Co published stock reports (modern example for Boing) that stock pickers had used for a generation called "The Value Line Investment Survey". Value Line was a series of estimates and statistics for each of the 1700 stocks surveyed relative to "the market". The Value Line reports allowed investors to choose securities based on their characteristics relative to "the market". The market was estimated by aggregating 1700 stocks, USA and foreign, that were most heavily traded by Americans. The stocks were equally weighted and the index was a geometric average of their performance. The Value Line Index performance would mirror the performance of a portfolio of random stocks that a 1930s-80s individual middle class stocks picker might hold. An investor could benchmark themselves against this average performance for a stock picker. In more modern language we would describe the Value Line Index as a primarily equal weighted USA midcap index with some additional equally weighted foreign, largecap and smallcap exposure. Fouse decided to base the portfolio on something very much like the Value Line Index. But to hold complexity down rather than choosing to simply mirror Value Line he would construct an equally weighted portfolio of all the stocks which traded on the New York Stock Exchange. The portfolio was going to be computer managed so Wayne Wagner and Larry Cuneo (later at Plexus Group) wrote an operating manual, which was how what was then the financial analysis department was supposed to manage these assets, with rules on trading. The computerized aspects of the portfolio more than indexing is what Fouse becomes known for and when he returns to Mellon he does so as head of the very large quantitative investment group. We see immediately in this structure the tension that exists in the passive community to this day between believers in purely efficient markets and believers in mean reverting value investing. The reason to choose equal weighting as a trading strategy was to benefit from daily swings in stocks for liquidity reasons, that is securities are temporarily mispriced as large investors get into or out of them. The reason to choose it more long term is a belief in mean reversion: an equal weighted portfolio is selling stocks that are hot and buying stocks that aren't. The long term return on a security is the discounted value of all future dividends. This can be estimated by the discounted value of all future earnings. Price for a security is determined by a weighted number of investors as opposed to sellers which is only loosely tied to a discounted value of all future earnings. So for Fouse almost all securities are almost always mispriced but this extremely contrarian investing was difficult to do. If markets are efficient and trading costs were 0, this sort of trading would be mostly harmless (though the market portfolio would have a slightly higher risk adjusted return to the equal weighted portfolio). Conversely if markets were mean reverting this sort of trading strategy would generate substantial alpha (above market return). No one at the time considered momentum and that stocks while mean reverting are trend sustaining over the short term which is why this strategy doesn't work as well as Fouse originally hoped. This fund proved to be extremely difficult and expensive to manage. For an equal weighted index trading has to be almost daily, every stock that had a large move has to be rebalanced. Trading costs in the early 1970s were much higher than today. Many of the techniques used by today's index funds like: sampling, patient buyer / patient seller, use of derivatives were unknown to Wells Fargo. The result was that the fund trailed its index by multiple percentage points. Decades later Guggenheims' and Invesco's Equal Weighted SP500 are able to outperform index funds like Vanguard's index by 1% annually even after higher expenses and much higher trading costs. However, they under-performed their index by a noticeable amount even now, and moreover don't beat cap weighted midcap index funds. Even with almost 50 years more experience fund companies doing what Wells Fargo was attempting find it tough. We shouldn't be surprised that the first fund to try failed. The biggest problem the fund faced was liquidity. The large daily trading volumes in the more illiquid stocks were the most obvious bleed. While the New York Stock Exchange was choosen for all the stocks being liquid they simply weren't liquid enough on average. A more liquid index was needed. The third most popular index at the time was from a merged company named Standard and Poors. Poors had been founded to track the primary investment vehicle in the pre-Civil War era, canal projects. When railroads overtook canals as the core of America's transportation Poor's Manual of the Railroads of the United States became an annual investor's guide to the fundamentals of the various stocks and bonds of the railroads. The Poor's company had a successful extremely well regarded product and became quite conservative in expansion. In 1906 Standard Statistics began publishing a similar guide for all non railroad stocks and bonds, industrials. They changed the format and designed the guide to be updated anytime the fundamentals of the company changed, subscribers kept a book of index cards about each company and were sent new cards in the mail weekly. By the 1920s as the quantity of equity and bonds exploded the companies merged so as to offer fully consolidated products forming Standard and Poors. As part of this merger they tried to create an index that captured the performance of USA Industry. That way a company's economic performance could be measured against "the industrial economy" (note not "the market"). The way the index was constructed was by taking a group of USA large companies trading primarily on the major stock exchanges outside the IPO period with large public floats whose sectors and industries mirrored USA economic activity. S&P used the stock market as the best estimate for what a company was worth so the 233 initial members of this index were seen to represent the US industrial economy. The key innovation for the index was that it tried to ignore the effects of dividends, refinancing, stocks falling in and out of the index by applying a daily adjusted divisor. The net effect of this was that the index value plus dividend yield represented the return of a cap weighted index of stocks, very much like a mutual fund or pension fund. Moreover the selection criteria for inclusion in the S&P index was precisely the sorts of selection criteria a large investor would need to make sure the stocks they were buying were liquid enough to sustain being a meaningful holding. So the S&P index served not only as a benchmark for large investment funds but also as a list of viable stocks for such funds to invest in. During the 30-early 50s as the USA economy grew more stocks met the criteria for inclusion and the index gradually expanded. S&P decided to cap the list at the top 500 stocks by market capitalization meeting their liquidity and other criteria with some bias for continuity. With this the S&P500 index as we know it today was born. It was seen both as a benchmark for institutional investors and also the list of stocks of stocks in the index were seen as a list of investable securities for institutional investors. In 1973 the Samsonite fund changed from an equal weighted index of NYSE to an equal weighted SP500 fund. The equal weighting allowed the fund to avoid the heavy concentration in the Nifty-Fifty that cap weighting would have involved. Using SP500 stocks added liquidity and substantially reduced the tracking error. Additionally 2 years of practice had made Wells Fargo's trading algorithms better. What using an almost well known index did though was allow for immediate comparisons between the index the fund was tracking (equal weighted SP500) and the better known SP500 index (cap weighted). Going back in time in 1972 Mac McQuown brought George Williams (Illinois Bell Telephone's pension) on board Wells as a customer. Williams had discussions with and his team including Fouse. Fouse / the quantitative group was preparing to implement a quantitative fund much like the one Fouse had wanted to start at Mellon: The Wells Fargo Stagecoach Fund. Stagecoach would offer diversification across: beta deciles, growth categories and capitalization size. In modern terms a smart-beta fund. The group was not ready to manage money yet using Stagecoach but obviously wanted to bring Illinois Bell in house. So Williams suggested they simply use a cap weighted SP500 index fund to temporarily manage the portfolio until Stagecoach was ready. Thus in 1972 the first cap weighted SP500 index fund was born, though very non-glamorously as a temporary offering to fill the void until Stagecoach was ready. Having both the equal weighted and the cap weighted fund running together and having a computed equal weighted index along with the well known SP500 index immediately led to comparisons. What this comparison demonstrated was that the equal weighted index was substantially more volatile than a cap weighted index would have been. You might wonder why the equal weighted index is so much more volatile? The problem is that at least in theory cap weighting is indifferent to competition while equal weighting is not indifferent. For example assume we have companies X and Y with X's market capitalization being 4x Y's. Assume they have similar margins on sales. Assume that Y steals market share from X. The cap weighted index sees a decline in X earnings and a corresponding increase in Y's. The shift in earnings cancel out so the fund doesn't experience any additional earnings related volatility from the shift. In equal weighted index though this doesn't happen. As Y steals market share from X, X declines in price 4x slower than Y gains so the equal weighted index gains. Moreover as the stock prices shift the equal weighted index has to be selling Y rapidly and buying X slowly. Conversely if X steals share from Y again the cap weighted index is indifferent. But the equal weighted index is 4x as exposed to Y as X so the index loses. This causes even more dramatic trading as X gains share price slightly while Y's share price drops dramatically. The equal weighted fund to have to rapidly buy up Y's stock and slowly sell X's. In most industries competitors move each other's stock price all the time with product changes causing market-share to shift. Moving from practice to theory however the market tends to have recency bias so these trades are on average profitable, providing they can be done cheaply. But there are easier and cheaper ways to capture these recency bias effect. The main intuitive advantage then and now of equal weighting is that it provides better "diversification" in that the biggest stocks don't dominate the index (look at how few stocks are 40-80% of most sectors). The problem is that equal weighting it isn't particularly good in diversifying away the most common form of company specific risk, losing / share earnings to a competitor when the competitor has a very different market capitalization. It was obvious to everyone at Wells that for mutual funds as opposed to pension funds frequent trading would present even more of a problem because of realized taxes on capital gains. Infrequent trading is vastly more tax efficient. A Cap Weighted index has to trade infrequently. In the case of the SP500 the reasons for trading would be:
Changes at the bottom of the index as smallest companies fall off
New companies added to the index
New share issuance
Insider or company share repurchases in large volume (which was much rarer in the early 1970s than today)
Change in company ownership that cause the stock not to exist
Spinoffs and even then not if the spunoff company joins the index
Mergers among 2 SP500 stocks
In the 1973-4 bear the Nifty-Fifty sold off horrifically and the main reason to avoid cap weighting had disappeared. In 1976 Wells Fargo stopped the experiment with equal weighting. Samsonite was moved their now standard cap weighting SP500 pension fund. The simpler cap weighted SP500 index fund delivered what Samsonite had been aiming for: an inexpensive fund that matched the performance of the market before expenses and since it had much lower expenses was able to beat the average fund after expenses. The SP500 fund was seen as a commodity product for reasons we'll discuss in the next post and so was of little interest to Wells. The smart beta Stagecoach product was a success and the group was more interested in getting the uncompromised version working. Wells like many large companies that develop a disruptive product don't appreciate what they have. Computerized trading and quantitative investing were areas of interest to every large house and so retaining the staff became difficult. This algorithmic trading were commodity products, far too easy to imitate and no firm could ever establish a proprietary advantage. So Wells didn't fight that hard to retain quantitative group as other houses swooped in on their employees. Fouse continued his experiments at Wells and then returned to Mellon to found the Quantitative Trading group which became simply enormous and influential. While Fouse is technically the father of index investing he is much more often regarded (and fairly IMHO) as the father of quantitative trading. One of McQuown proteges at Wells, David Booth, attacked the problem of small cap stocks at Wells and then along with Eugene Fama founded Dimensional the first and largest passive only mutual fund firm who pioneered many of the techniques standard in the industry today. The Wells Fargo quantitative group stripped of its best people was sold off and became Barclays Global Investors. Dean Lebaron and Jeremy Grantham at Batterymarch Financial Management founded the 2nd SP500 cap weighted index fund. This fund is often forgetten but plays a key role in what would become GMO (Grantham, Mayo, & van Otterloo). GMO specializes in variable asset allocation based on market cycle and valuations based forecasts): applying the ideas of value investing to whole sectors and markets. What Grantham was aiming for was a way to hold market based on macroeconomic valuations the same way one might hold a stock based on fundamental analysis. Indexing to this day plays a big role in tactical asset allocation style of investing. The 2nd fund played little role historically and is mostly forgotten by history. The 3rd index fund however is not. In the 1976 this 3rd fund was born as an failed subscription: a $150m fund that only attracted $11m in assets and then grew slowly. The fund's existence after the initial subscription was barely noticed though it slowly accumulated assets until after the Jul-Oct 1990 mini bear. A boring first 15 years. Its second 15 years it went on to completely transform the investing landscape forever across the planet. That 3rd index fund's story and a return to our other protagonist from part b will be the subject of our next post.
Peter L. Bernstein's Capital Ideas covers the Wells Fargo Quantitative Group and the Samsonite fund in terrific detail and is the main source for this article.
Fouse 1998 speech where he describes the ideas behind the Samsonite fund in his own words including McQuown's rejection of asset pricing models.
The study also found out that if India followed only the SPAN margin system it would have been good enough to cover the risk for 99.44 percent instances of At-the-Money (ATM) and Out-of-the-Money (OTM) stock option contract. Simply put, there is no need to burden traders with extra margins. Higher margins result in a lower return on investment (RoI) for a trader. Ironically, an FII who has an option of trading both in India as well as in Singapore Stock Exchange (SGX) has to pay the complete margin in India but only the SPAN margin if he trades the Nifty derivatives in SGX. With the same amount of money the FII can get better leverage and higher return if he trades abroad. And we are not even talking of the advantage he has while trading in dollars. No wonder volume in SGX has picked over the years. Not only are margins high in India, but the way they are charged on various option strategies defies logic. Take the case of spread strategies. Spread strategies do not carry any price risk but they take advantage of volatility. Yet NSE charges a full premium for the short options -- almost equivalent to the margin required if the trader was holding short futures position. Globally, the maximum amount needed to pay as the margin is slightly over the maximum loss that the limited loss strategy would incur. The study has found how Indian traders are at a huge disadvantage in trading various option strategies as compared to traders globally. Indian traders are restricted by many other margin requirements and ad-hoc increase in margin in order to protect from events like the recent election. The unfortunate part is that these margins are sticky and tend to stay longer, well past the event. Apart from the margins, various statutory charges are imposed on traders. India has the highest transaction charges in the world and these do not include the taxes one has to pay if they are profitable despite these restrictions. Despite these handicaps, volumes in Indian stock and index options are among the highest in the world. If Indian exchanges follow global margin methodology Indian markets volumes would be untouchable, not to mention the huge opportunity for collecting taxes. The report submitted by the sub-committee to the market regulator makes a strong case for aligning Indian margin management practices with global exchanges. The ball is now in SEBI’s court.
Comin' at ya! So in addition to my Nifty Or Thrifty article each month, I spend the time between NoT articles with some deeper examinations of Pokémon in the current Cup that I think may deserve a little more attention, ones that might have breakout potential. My last couple articles happen to have covered repeats from the past, takin a second look at Beedrill and Heracross. So I guess third time's the charm, as today we are rehashing a whole group of old AND some new 'mons, putting them all...under the lights. Just as it was in Rainbow Cup, when I wrote a very similar article on Razor Leafers, Grass as a type in Jungle Cup is highlighted by Frenzy Plant. The first of the busted Community Day starter moves (back from just the second Community Day ever), Frenzy Plant deals a ridiculous 100 damage for only 45 energy, the second highest Damage Per Energy (DPE) available in the game. The two most common users of it (we're ignoring Sceptile, since Frenzy Plant is only its third--maybe even fourth now--best move) also both have Vine Whip, an true fast move that generates energy quickly (4.0 Energy Per Turn (EPT)) with only slightly below average Damage Per Turn (DPT) at 2.5 (3.0 is generally considered average). It is this moveset combination, along with a good secondary move in Sludge Bomb, that has put Venusaur as the reigning Grass king in two straight Cups now. He is the Grass to beat, able to best Vigoroth, Wigglytuff, (nearly) all Electrics, AND most of the other Grasses. That all being said... this article is NOT about Venusaur. Or Frenzy Plant. Or even Vine Whip. This is instead about the primary alterative and perhaps more infamous Grass strategy, and the main candidates that fall into that camp. I'm talking (again) about the Razor Leafers. Razor Leaf is the other Grass fast move useful in PvP other than Vine Whip. (No, don't talk to me about Bullet Seed. It doesn't count. It's horrid... really.) Unlike the high energy but so-so damage output of Whip, Razor Leaf is used to just shred things up without even needing charge moves. It has the highest DPT in the game (a whopping 5.5 DPT, a full point and a half above everything not named Charm... and yes, still higher than Charm too), though at the cost of low EPT (only 2.0, a snail's pace). But that's okay, because when done right, Razor Leaf can take down its targets, on its own, sometimes before any charge moves are ready to launch. (More on that shortly.) Even if it doesn't manage to beat out charge move use, Razor Leafers can often obliterate things weak to Grass--or even NOT weak to Grass!--with only fast moves, taking the opponent's shields out of the equation, or at worst, absolutely ensuring they have to burn one just to survive the fast move onslaught. But this is more than just a specific move analysis. As you probably know by now, my articles (and the Under The Lights features especially) focus on very specific Pokémon. So let's do that! Here are the most relevant Jungle Cup Pokémon that have access to the powerful Razor Leaf, brought to you in high definition tableized format. Feast your eyes! (Razor Leaf as a Legacy move marked with an ᴸ)
Recommended Charge Moves (Typing)
Other Charge Moves (Typing)
Leaf Blade (G), Sludge Bomb (P)
Acid Spray (P), Leaf Tornado (G), Solar Beam (G)
Seed Bomb (G), Sludge Bomb (P)
Power Whip (G)
Leaf Blade (G), Dazzling Gleam (F)
Petal Blizzard (G)
Sludge Bomb (P), Moonblast (F)
Petal Blizzard (G), Solar Beam (G)
Sludge Bomb (P), Moonblast (F)
Petal Blizzard (G)
Grass Knot (G), Sludge Bomb (P)
Dazzling Gleam (F), Solar Beam (G)
Sludge Bomb (P), Dazzling Gleam (F)
Petal Blizzard (G)
Stone Edge (R), Earthquake (G)
Solar Beam (G)
Body Slam (N), Energy Ball (G)
Solar Beam (G)
Grass Knot (G), Ancient Power (R)
Energy Ball (G)
Ice Beam (I), Hydro Pump (W)
Blizzard (I), Solar Beam (G)
First let's quick discuss what's NOT listed: the Vine Whippers. My reasoning is simple and the same as last time: running Razor Leaf on Venusaur, Meganium, and even Ivysaur is, in own opinion, a waste of potential. Remember that Vine Whip generates energy literally twice as fast as Razor Leaf, and with those three, you want to fire off as many of their potent charge moves as possible. (Ivy lacks Frenzy Plant, but Power Whip is a close approximation.) The Grass charge moves are important, but their secondary moves are just as (if not even more) important for critical coverage. The 'Saurs NEED Sludge Bomb as a legit threat to Bugs and Flyers that can otherwise check them completely unfettered, and to have a leg up against opposing Grasses. Meganium NEEDS Earthquake--which already feels slow even with Whip's high EPT--for similar reasons. They'll never get there with Razor Leaf, and the opponent will know it. Yes, Razor Leaf will deal much bigger neutral damage than Vine Whip in some bad matchups, but all important versatility and shield pressure will be gone. One particularly damning example is Venusaur versus Vigoroth... Venusaur wins the 0 shield with Vine Whip but with Razor Leaf, Viggy has time to get in TWO Body Slams before Venusaur gets to a charge move and Venusaur loses. Don't do it... especially since there are plenty of other powerful Razor Leafers to choose from. A note before we dive fully into the various options. Looking at the chart above, you'll notice that the majority of true Razor Leafers are on the glassy side with high Attack but below average (or downright poor) Defense, HP, or both. Normally, that's not a good thing in PvP, as high Attack stats mean higher CP and lower overall Defense and/or HP. However, with a move like Razor Leaf, where you want to deal as much raw damage as possible with each hit, this is the rare exception to the rule. As one example, Victreebel can kill Alolan Gravelerbefore it reaches a charge move with just Razor Leaf while, for example, Bayleef cannot. Or as an extreme example, an Attack-maximized Weepinbell (with a whopping 147 Attack) can kill Lanturn with just Razor Leaf before it can reach a Thunderbolt. I am not necessarily advocating you look for a 15 Attack IV Razor Leafer to throw out there (as it will be even glassier than normal that way)... I'm more trying to say that an Attack-heavy Razor Leafer is not necessarily a bad thing in PvP. And that also highlights the advantage they have other the Vine Whippers. When Grass damage is super effective, a Razor Leafer will often outperform even the potent Vine Whip/Frenzy Plant combo. Take the A-Grav example again. While most RLers can dust it off without any charge moves coming into play, Venusaur wins but with only about half the HP of the typical Razor Leafer (Vic comes out with 60 HP, for reference), and while it forces Grav to burn a shield, it ALSO has to use a shield itself to survive. As another example, the majority of Razor Leafers beat Magnezone even though Razor Leaf is resisted, because even when 'not very effective', RL is such a powerful move that it still deals decent damage with each hit. Victreebel, for example, wins because no matter when 'Zone chooses to use its first charge move (even if it uses it the second it is first available), Vic beats down 'Zone JUST before it get enough energy to fire the Flash Cannon it would need to win... the same Flash Cannon that CAN take out Venusaur. And as you might have gathered by how I keep using it as an example, I think the most well-rounded Razor Leafer continues to beVictreebel. Vic started to make a name for itself in the closing days of Twilight Cup as a hard check to Azumarill and Tentacruel and the Nidos that could also shred a number of other meta picks that took neutral damage from the then-recently-buffed Razor Leaf. Even then, Venusaur with Frenzy Plant was king, but the sheer speed at which Razor Leaf took things down got Vic some play. And you know what? I think it is still the best Razor Leaf option available in any Cup that doesn't include Tropius... like Rainbow (where it had great success, especially with Quag running amok) and now here in Jungle. Like other Razor Leafers, Vic is best when able to just spam fast moves to victory. Razor Leaf alone is enough to beat every Electric in Jungle (except that pesky flying Zapdos) AND defeat the big "Normal" threats Vigoroth and Wigglytuff (the latter before it can fire a charge move), the two main marks of success for a Grass in Jungle Cup. But Victreebel's main advantage is its charge moves. Leaf Blade is the best possible move to pair with Razor Leaf, needing only 35 energy to fire off an impressive 70 damage. Even with slow charging Razor Leaf, that's only nine seconds on average... slow, but not TOO slow. It is all but guaranteed to be ready to fire on the next 'mon to follow whatever you just killed off with Razor Leaf, and 70 damage (with STAB on top of it) hurts even when resisted. You can get to a Leaf Tornado for only one more Razor Leaf, but my personal recommendation is to add Sludge Bomb as the second move--even though it requires a total of a painfully slow thirteen Razor Leafs--to give it the same versatile threat as Venusaur. With Vic having more than enough energy for it (it requires 50) after taking down VigWig or most of the Electrics, it's also a good case for using just Razor Leaf to finish something off and then dropping a Bomb on he followup 'mon. You could also argue for Acid Spray--with the same cost as Bomb--as a "parting gift" before Vic bites the dust, but in my opinion, when you're using a Razor Leafer, the name of the game is damage damagedamage, so for me it's Leaf Blade/Sludge Bomb. Vic is unique among RLers in having Spray (and Tornado!) though, so if messing with the opponent's stats and weakening their Pokémon is your game, go for it. The same is mostly true of the rest of the Razor Leafers, with some key differences I will attempt to cover briefly. Victreebel's pre-evolution Weepinbell requires a Legacy version, as it cannot currently learn Razor Leaf anymore. But if you have a RL Weeper, it has the highest Attack stat of these Razor Leafers (tied with Roserade), and decent HP, but the most pitiful Defense of the lot. (There's ALWAYS a trade off for high Attack in Great League!) It has some of the best charge moves of the bunch, with Seed Bomb being nearly as fast to fire as Leaf Blade (just one Razor Leaf difference) and Sludge Bomb again making an appearance. Those moves are so good that another good move, Power Whip (remember that from Ivysaur?) doesn't even make the cut. It performs similarly to Victreebel... in fact, a deeper dive revealed that they seem to share all the same wins and losses against meta relevant Pokémon. Weeper is more boom or bust than Vic, sometimes emerging from those wins with a LOT more HP (Magnezone, for example, where Vic, if you remember from above, emerges with 15 HP but Weeper comes out with over five times more HP because its more powerful Leafs kill Magnezone before it can reach a second charge move). Conversely, there are other important battles where the low bulk really costs it, such as versus Vigoroth (Weeper JUST barely escapes with a win, as opposed to Vic's more comfortable margin). The Defense is a direct factor, as each Counter and charge move does more damage to Weeper than Vic due to the difference in Defense and overall bulk. So like I said, Victreebel with more boom AND bust potential. Bellossom is a close comp to Victreebel, having the same RazorBlade (haha I just as funny as last month) move combo as Vic. It also has Dazzling Gleam, which would be more intriguing if A.) it didn't cost a whopping 70 energy to fire, so you won't be getting to it often (if at all), and B.) Fairy had more than just two super effective targets (in Jungle, it's basically just Fighting types Heracross and Breloom... the small handful of eligible Darks and single Dragon type are nowhere to be seen). As it is, you will almost certainly end up using only Leaf Blade as the charge move, which is far from a bad thing. (It would be perfectly valid, if you're feeling thrifty, to not add a second move at all.) But the key distinction between Bell and Vic is the typing. Bellossom is pure Grass, and without Vic's Poison subtyping, it gets hit a LOT harder by anything with Poison moves, aka many other Grasses and also Bugs like Beedrill, who are all on the rise to combat Wigglytuff. And without the Poison subtyping, it is ALSO now weak to Wigglytuff itself, falling to the pink bunny monster's Charm. (Yes, it burns a shield, but that's a pretty common tale for Wiggly, as it is turning out.) And it cannot typically beat Wiggly with just Razor Leaf, either. Bummer. In Rainbow Cup, this was counterbalanced by pure Grasses not being weak to Confusion and Psychic attacks that ripped up the Poison/Grasses... Exeggutocute and Slowbro/poke were prevelant, making that a very real advantage. But here in the Jungle, Exeggutor has mostly faded away, Girafarig is more punchline than actual threat, and really only the Moths (Venomoth and Dustox) are still in as Confusioners, and with their Bug and Poison moves, they beat down all the Grasses anyway, regardless of whether they're part Poison or not. Pure Grasses had their use in Rainbow, but here in the Jungle, it's almost entirely a disadvantage. One of the benefactors of the move shakeup last week was Vileplume, who finally got a charge move with a cost low enough to actually, realistically reach it with Razor Leaf, and it's a good move too! Sludge Bomb brings Plume into relevance among the RLers... previously its fastest move was Petal Blizzard, which cost 65 energy and was underwhelming anyway. In fact, if you purchase a second move at all, I actually recommend one that costs even MORE energy: Moonblast, at 70 energy. You may not reach it often, but at least it has some different coverage and is neutral in most spots where Grass moves are ineffective. (Really, though, this is a case where you could easily get by with just one charge move and pocket that 50k dust instead.) Vileplume's win rate is similar to Victreebel, and yes, it beats all the same Electrics (and Vigoroth and Wiggly, JUST outracing the latter to its first charge) that you'd expect of your typical Razor Leafer. With bulk advantages over Vic/Weeper and the typing advantage over Bellossom, it's actually a pretty strong contender now as long as you don't care too much about Leaf Blade. Again, the pre-evolution is a viable option as well. Gloom has the same moves as Vileplume with a bit less Attack but greater bulk (not surprising since it is leveled up higher). It still beats VigWig and the same Electric lineup you're used to by now, but with a curious twist: with its increased bulk, it can actually outlast Zapdos (who beats all the other Razor Leafers we've covered so far), taking a Drill Peck to the chin and finishing Zappy off with ineffective Razor Leafs. Mighty impressive. A point to bulk (and Gryffindor!). I have advocated Gloom as the thrifty (read as: dust broke) player's Razor Leafer of choice for several Cups now, and that continues here. The first ones on the list that we couldn't use in Rainbow Cup are Roserade and Roselia, who I will cover together because of their strong similarities and similar moves. (And because I am aware I may bump up against TSA's character limit at this rate!) Both have top-notch Attack prowess but very poor bulk, making them as glassy as Weepinbell above and again true boom or bust options. Roserade has the move advantage (Grass Knot is a good move with the same charge time as Sludge Bomb), Roselia slightly less wretched bulk, but with Sludge Bomb, they both function basically the same way as Razor Leafers. And yes, both beat all non-Flying Electrics, VigWig, etc. that you've come to expect. What sets them apart a bit is that they are the best at operating as NON-Razor Leafers. Most Pokémon in this article have the very bad alternate fast move Acid, which overall functions similarly to Razor Leaf against things weak to Poison (like Wiggly), but significantly worse against everything else, and the energy generation is only marginally (0.5 EPT) better at the cost of dealing barely half the damage of RL. Hard pass. (Most of the other options below aren't much better, as we'll see.) Roserade/lia, however, have Poison Jab, a very good move (3 DPT and 3.5 EPT), and while it doesn't look like a great win rate on paper, what it does is turn them into Grass killers able to defeat most of its fellow Razor Leafers and even Venusaur. (Despite the lack of a good Grass move, Roselia is generally a little better in this curveball role than Roserade due to the bulk difference.) And while this also still works against Wigglytuff, it gives up sure wins versus Vigoroth and many of the Electrics to do it. Proooooooobably not worth it, but if for some reason you expect a Grass-heavy meta, I suppose it IS an option. (And considering how much better PJ is than Acid, hopefully this is enough to convince you NOT to try Acid at all... in ANY form! Ahem....) One last starter family to cover, starting with end-of-the-evolutionary-line Torterra. With charge moves Stone Edge and Earthquake, and a unique Ground sub-typing (TRIPLE resistance to Electrics, baby!), Torterror certainly stands out on this list. And while it not surprisingly beats down Electrics the hardest (ALL of them, including Zapdos), unfortunately its win rate takes a dip elsewhere. Primarily this is driven by having a subpar, Gloom-like Attack stat without having Gloom-level bulk to compensate. Its win against Vigoroth is very uncomfortably close and unlike all the other options above, it cannot reliably beat Wigglytuff (it's a tie instead). It CAN put the hurt on Flyers if it lands a Stone Edge, but that's not something you necessarily want to bank on. I still think Torterra will shine in a Cup one of these days (maybe after its future Community Day?), but for now, it's just too slow--even among other Razor Leafers--with its weaker fast moves. However, its pre-evolution Grotle has popped up at a few tournaments so far, including on the winning team in a 200+ player tournament in Chile as their only Grass type. Like most of the others here, Grotle beats the Electrics and Viggy, but like Torterra, only ties Wiggly. But what really makes it appealing (and is likely the main reason it has been popping up a few places) is that it has Vigoroth's bread and butter charge move Body Slam. With slow Razor Leaf charging it, obviously it's not nearly as spammy as usual, but it does charge at the same rate as Leaf Blade and while it's a little less powerful and won't ever hit super effectively, it also only very rarely hits ineffectively either. You can add Energy Ball or even Solar Beam as "why not? it's only 10k dust" second moves, but if you're playing Grotle, it's all about that Body Slam. It does have a respectable win rate, though I'm not sure if it will continue to take people by surprise for long as news of its successes keeps popping up here and there. And now that I've written about it. Ummm... oops. Last among the starters is Bayleef, another unique option that I talked up a little back during the GO Stadium Jungle Cup Meta Discussion... so I feel obligated to give it some time here. Bayleef's low Attack (108) is very underpowered compared to the others, and thus it can't outrace much of anything with its comparatively weak Razor Leaf spam. Despite that, its win rate is still very comparable to the other Leafers, partly because it has the best overall bulk and partly because of the move that makes it really unique: Ancient Power. Bayleef still beats all Electrics (besides Zapdos, though it can also absorb a Drill Peck and if it lands an Ancient Power, it wins outright), still beats Vigoroth, still (barely) beats Wiggly. But Ancient Power is the real advantage, giving it an ability to punish Flyers and Bugs that is nearly unheard of with other Razor Leafers (or Grasses in general). Yes, we just talked about Torterror with Stone Edge, but AP charges two Razor Leafs faster and has a potential stat boost as well, giving it far superior potential. If you can get an AP through unshielded, Bayleef can outslug Venomoth, Pidgeot, Masquerain, and even the bulky Queen of Grassassins Vespiquen. No Grass has any business doing any of that, but Bayleef, quite uniquely, can, giving it a legitimate leg up against unprepared (and even some prepared!) opponents... but there's a tradeoff. The others listed can all be caught at the right size for Great League use (even Weepinbell and Gloom, as pre-evolutions, can be caught or evolved up to around 1500 CP at or around Level 35), whereas Bayleef really needs to be maxed out (and even then, a perfect one tops out at 1454). He's a unique and powerful option, but he is not for the thrifty. And finally, the oddest of the oddballs, the most unique Pokémon on this entire list, the fan favorite... Ludicolo! With a Water sub-typing, you would expect him to lose to Electrics, but that is generally not true... Ludicolo still beats them all except for a razor (leaf) close loss to Magnezone and--you guessed it!--Zapdos again. And yes, Ludicolo does defeat Vigoroth and ties Wigglytuff. And just as Bayleef and even Torterra can steal a win from Flyers and Bugs with their Rock moves, Ludicolo has the potential to do the same against Flyers and Grasses with Ice Beam, which is really the only charge move you need (and likely the only one you'll ever reach anyway). It does 80-100+ damage to all Flyers (Normal, Bug, and Electric alike) and can be a very nasty surprise to any of them the opponent sends in to try and take Ludicolo out. This is not its most ideal Cup (it probably needs a Cup with Water and not specifically including other Grass to reach its awesome, Camerupt-esque potential), but Ludicolo is always a fun option to consider, and this is the first chance we'd had to use him, so if you've been itching to roll him out there, at least now you know what to expect (beyond his sweet dance moves). LUDICOLO! Okay, let's get to the TL;DR summary before I COMPLETELY blow past the character limit. A strong Razor Leafer can ratchet up the pressure akin to even the mighty Venusaur. The unprepared can wilt under Razor Leafs before they have proper time to switch out, and even the experienced are likely to give Razor Leaf the respect it deserves. That damage adds up quick! If you don't have Venusaur, running a potent Razor Leafer as your only Grass IS a little riskier, putting you at a disadvantage against Bugs and Flyers that Venusaur's speed (and Sludge Bombs!) can sometimes make up for, but it can also defeat a wide swath of very relevant things in the Jungle. My personal recommendation continues to be Victreebel, with the best mix of Attack high enough to beat down several very relevant 'mons with fast moves alone and charge moves that you can realistically expect to fire off (sometimes more than once, which is not often true of Razor Leafers!). But hopefully this article has given you a good perspective on the intricacies of your various options and can help you decide what is best for YOUR team. Good luck! As always, the sims above from the wonderful PvPoke.com are a good start to the story, but this is still certainly not the whole story. Sim with these yourself, test with them yourself, and please: discuss! I always relish your feedback. Good luck out there. Take some razors with you to hack through all those leaves (and Electrics... and apes... and pink... bunny... uh, things) in the Jungle! P.S. - LUDICOLO!
Sensex up in line with global peers; investors eye US-China trade deal
At 9.30 am, the benchmark Sensex was up 0.3% or 130.04 points at 41582.39 points IIFL Securities expects the party in mid caps to continue today as investors make a beeline for higher delta stocks with mid caps making a strong come back. https://preview.redd.it/s4cwoi0nhw941.jpg?width=600&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9883bf1b073e5e137a4eda328868c0717f6d8b48 Indian stock markets on Friday opened marginally higher tracking mostly upbeat global equities that rose in a relief rally following a de-escalation in tensions between the US and Iran. Investors have now shifted focus to US-China phase-one deal which is expected to be signed next week. At 9.30 am, the benchmark Sensex was up 0.3% or 130.04 points at 41582.39 points, while the Nifty gained 0.29% or 35.35 points to 12251.25 points. IIFL Securities expects the party in mid caps to continue today as investors make a beeline for higher delta stocks with mid caps making a strong come back. The October-December earnings season kick starts today, Infosys Ltd scheduled to announces its results later in the day. Analysts expect the 3Q of FY20 to be another quarter of muted earnings, largely led by BFSI, auto and consumer segment. The IT major rose 1% ahead of its earnings. Bharti Airtel rose 1% after Business Standard reported that it has received offers for subscriptions aggregating over $10 billion, three times its target of $3 billion, through a combination of qualified institutional placement (QIP) and foreign currency convertible bonds (FCCBs). “Going ahead, markets would continue to be volatile in short term due to the tension in Middle East and upcoming 3QFY20 earnings season. Investors would also be watching out for pre-budget developments which would influence the market”, Motilal Oswal said in a note to its investors. Meanwhile, shares in Japan and Australia nudged higher along with US equity futures, even as gains fizzled in Hong Kong and China. The S&P 500 Index climbed to a fresh record on Thursday and the yen dropped to a two-week low versus the dollar as tension in the Middle East ebbed. Also aiding sentiment, jobless claims fell more than expected, adding to signs of economic strength ahead of the US payrolls report later today. Watch our Stock Market Target Calls Quality, Track sheet – Click Here or Subscribe us for Stock Market Trading >>>>Stock Cash Tips
Derivatives future and options Being a developing nation Indian stock market a being very shallow in late ’90s. In early 2000 India introduces the exchange-traded derivatives on NSE and BSE both. With the emergence of futures trading on NSE India witnessed huge spike in trading volumes and major chunk of new participants entered in the market. During 2000-2008 Bull Run Indian traders make a huge amount of money in futures and options trading. It’s been 20 years since the derivatives have emerged in India and we have seen a lot of informed traders are trading derivatives market as their full-time career and many also based trading systems have been introduced in recent past. ? So why anyone needs to understand the derivatives and how it will going to help in improvising the trading strategies and profit margin we’ll try to understand this in this article.
Let first try to understand what are derivatives??
Derivatives are the financial instrument which derives its value from the performance of some underlying assets. Any assets whose value are uncertain and cannot be determined can be an underlying asset for derivatives. For example, if we say what will be the value of Nifty in next trading session, intrinsically it is difficult to say where nifty trade will tomorrow at 1 P.M. So two people who hold the opposite view about Nifty can make bet on the moment on nifty and make a contract on this assumption. In derivatives scenario, these types of contracts are known as Futures Contract. Futures market follows the zero-sum game rule, which means one person loss will be the profit of other, financial assets such as share possess some value they create wealth but profit and loss from the derivatives market is being generated from the pocket of traders who are in a trade.
What is the importance of derivatives markets?
Derivative makes Market Efficient – Derivative market helps in replicating the underlying asset payoff. The price of underlying and its derivatives will remain in equilibrium which reduces the arbitrage opportunities in the market.
Price Discovery – Derivative helps in determine the correct price for the shares and commodities. Financial markets are affected by all the major news around the world. How the trades interpret this information the prices of stocks keep on changing and helps in discovering the right price.
Counterparty Risk – Derivative market reduces the counterparty risk as exchanges are very strict on margin norms, they take upfront margin from both the parties based on the volatility of stock so that counterparty fulfills their obligations.
There are different types of derivative contract such as forward future options, swaps, floor, and collar, etc. However, the most preferred derivative instruments are futures and options. Most of the traders all over the world trade in options markets. In India, we have also witnessed that a large number of traders are trading in options markets. Although options trading is the most difficult and complex in all the above derivatives. Let’s try to understand the options market. Whenever we talk about directional trading, people are more fascinated towards options trading as it required very less capital and can generate a higher return. But as we discussed option trading and understating is not that much easy to implement. In the option market, there are basically two instruments which trader’s trader – which are known as Call option and Put options. Call options increase in value when the market goes upside and decrease in value market falls. On the other side, put options increase in value when the market falls and decrease in value when the market rise. With these, there are other complications which are attached to options which are known as Option Greeks, such as. • Delta – shows the rate of change of premium with respect to change in option premium. For example, if Nifty rises from 11000 to 11100 how much the value of call and put options increase and decrease in value respectively that is determined by delta. • Theta – show the decrease in value of an option due to passage of time, if the time to expiry is high means the expiry date is for the option value decrease is less but as we approach the expiry value of option started decreasing at an increasing rate. • Vega – shows the change in option premium with respect to change in volatility of the option. Option premium is also affected by an increase or decrease in the volatility of the market, higher the volatility the option premium will tends to be high and vice versa. • Gamma – Show the rate of change of Delta with respect to change in the underlying price. • Rho – Rho signifies the change in option premium with respect to change in interest rate in the economy. Let’s take an example to understand options working. Nifty is trading at 11000 and 11100 CE is trading at Rs.55. and the expiry is on 31st Oct. We are expecting that market will reach 11600 by the end of 31st Oct 2019. Scenario 1. Nifty reaches at 11600 on 31 Oct 2019. Instead of buying the future contract we bought the call option of 11100 at 55.00. So we have paid Rs. 55 from our pocket that’s our outflow [i.e 55*75(75 is the lot size defined by exchange) = Rs.4125. (Total Investment). First we need to cover out cost to be in profit. So Strike price + Premium will be our break-even point in this case. i.e 11100 + 55 = 11155. We will start making money when the nifty will start trading above 11155.00 in our case. On 31st Oct Nifty trades above 11155 and closes at 11600 as we expected. P&L = 11600-11155 = 445 (So we earned 445 point on this trade. i.e = 445 *75 = Rs. 33,375.00 So with our expectation be right we make profit of 33,375 with just investing only Rs.4125. Scenario 2. Nifty goes opposite to our view and closes at 10800. In this case, we didn’t close above 11155 which is our break-even point and we know that if the market goes the price of put options rise and price of call option falls. So, in this case, we’ll lose money. We will lose amount only equivalent to the amount paid which is equal to Rs.4125.00 Scenario 3. Nifty remains at 11000 only. In this case, when the market closes at the same price, the theta will play an important role here, as the expiry comes near our option value which we have bought at Rs.55 will start to decay and it will become zero if the market closes to below 11155. As in our case if stay at 11000 we’ll again loses money as it stays below 11115 and that will again be equal to Rs.4125. The above calculation shows the simplest working of options trading, there is more and more complex addition to it.
Do you know why CPSE ETF popular with 4 most Important Reason..... As Investment or Listing Gain avenue in detail analysis.....
www.derivativelearn.com What is CPSE ETF? Central public sector enterprise are those companies in which the direct holding of the central government is 51% or more How many CPSE ETF issue came till date? Total issue came 5 March 2014 4363 cr Jan 17. 6000 cr March 17. 2500 cr Nov 18. 17000 cr March 19. 3500 cr 📷 Which stock are in CPSE index. ONGC 20.43% NTPC 19.54% Coal India 19.09% IOC 18.64% REC. 6.72% PFC. 5.49% Bharat electronics. 4.94% Oil India. 2.84% NBCC. 1.84% NLC. 0.86% Sector includes..... Energy Oil PSU Infra and engineering and PSU financial Four reason why CPSE unit gain popularity..... Better liquidity..... As low rate unit provide everyone to participate in trading as well as investment. So, flow of demand and supply comes excellent huge in number. Low cost transaction..... As there is no hidden cost or any kind of entry or exit load like mutual fund is, so cost of transaction is same like stock everyone trade. Better yield..... It has given positive return since its inception from 2014. It run from 17.4 to 27 in 2014-19 period. Basket of safe PSUs..... It gives indirect exposure of 10-12 PSUs of government where in few generate profit and few in loss. Moreover dividend payment of such company is highest compare to every other listed company. CPSE ETF came in following manner ..... CPSE NFO 18/3/2014 came at 17.45 with 5% discount after completion of 1 year Second came at 25.21 with upfront discount of 5% Jan 2017 Third came at 3.5 % front discount on march 17 @ 26.85 Fourth 4.5 % up front discount on Nov 18 around 25 Last at 25.4840 with 4% discount on march 2019 The initial offering came with promise of holding ETF at least for 1 year to get 5% discount while this time discount is up fronted , so medium to short term view you should take as most of investor do for benefit of discount Why nifty ETF got popularity much..... Nifty ETF turned largest due to employee provident fund organization invest only in that fund as low cost mechanism Because It is investing in large cap stocks nifty is reflecting same through ETF. Moreover investor should invest with short to medium term view. Even upfront discount is net gain for investor if we assume market remain stable. Is ETF pay dividend? Most of company included in CPSE ETF Is known for dividend paying company where few company pay 8-9% yield based on its current market price. There are two ways to pay dividend..... First, company or fund management declare advance date for dividend like record date which can be 30-60 days' advance to the actual dividend payment date. Second, fund manager buys additional amount of unit and distribute proportion wise to everyone as dividend. Even dividend is actually net zero sum game for investor as on ex date of dividendstock price reduce by amount of dividend declare. Conclusion: Subscribed ETF if there is upfront discount of more than 3% Look at market condition like it has reach at such level where margin of safety is not favorable Look at the price of all included stock in the ETF fund, this days almost all stockmiddle to low price. Moreover and most important need the stable government to decide the future of all PSU company for divestment smoothly.
[OC] Two Round Mock Draft with Pick Analysis: Draft Day Edition - (6/21/2018)
Phoenix Suns DeAndre Ayton C Arizona
Phoenix selects local Big Man - DeAndre Ayton. In May, The Suns hired their new Head Coach - Igor Kokoskov. Kokoskov is familiar with Doncic, coaching him and the champion Slovenian team in the EuroBasket2017. However, Head Coaches usually don't have too much leverage in the draft and Suns owner, Robert Sarver, is a big Arizona Basketball booster, so the organization has ties to both top prospects. After his only draft workout, with the Suns, Ayton told the media "I know I'm going No. 1" - it appears exceedingly likely at this point that he is correct. Ayton has sky-high potential due to his size (7’1” height, 7’5” wingspan, 9’3” standing reach, broad shoulders) and athleticism. He has a good looking jumper considering his size and an effective Mid-range and post-up game. IQ and motor on defense as well as finishing through contact and polishing his Pick-and-Roll game on offense are big questions. Can he put it all together for the Suns?
Sacramento Kings Luka Doncic SG/PG Real Madrid/Slovenia
Surprise! Vlade was pulling a ruse! There is a stigma when drafting European players. It mainly stems from public perception of the person making the selection. If one drafts a European prospect who busts, it is seen as more foolish because you may have missed out on an American prospect who was in your 'backyard' so to speak. However, Vlade Divac, GM of the Kings and former NBA player, was born in Serbia. I'm sure Vlade doesn't experience the stigma to the extent that others do, considering his background. Ultimately, the Kings can't resist taking Luka. The 19-year-old Slovenian excels in the pick-and-roll game on offense, great in transition (1.38 PPP), and is comfortable taking a vast array of jumpers -off ball screens (1.43 PPP) spot-ups, and pull-ups. He can be an effective team defender at times. Below average lateral quickness/vertical as well as inconsistent play are Doncic's main questions at this point in his career.
Atlanta Hawks Jaren Jackson Jr. C/PF Michigan State
With Luka off the board, the Hawks take Advanced Stats Jr. out of Model Projection State. Jackson may be the safest pick in the draft. He has phenomenal defensive instincts, a decent outside jump shot, and as mentioned before - posted a great statistical season at MSU. One must keep his very small sample size (35GP, 21.8MPG) in mind when interpreting stats. With that in mind, Triple 'J' is a defensive monster, leading the Big Ten in BLK% at 14.3% and Defensive Rating at 86.4. Very balanced on offense, though he doesn't have the strongest post game. A high foul rate may be an issue. Look out for the Hawks to trade up and select Trae Young after this selection, possibly in the 10-13 range if Young falls that far.
Memphis Grizzlies Marvin Bagley III PF Duke
MBIII falls to Memphis. Bagley is an athletic beast, great standing dunker, decent shooter, and underrated passer. A first-rate scorer on rim dives (1.43 PPP) - I see Bagley developing into a PF offensive role. Defense will be an issue, at least to begin with. Bagley only has a roughly 7'0" wingspan, and his defensive perimeter instincts aren't pretty. Memphis, like Sacramento, have struggled to get top prospects to work out for them and it's unclear what their relationship is with Bagley at this point. However, there seems to be some mutual interest between them and MPJ. Look out for Memphis to trade down and acquire Porter.
Dallas Mavericks Mohamed Bamba C Texas
Dallas takes Texas Big Man Mo Bamba. Bamba has good size (7’ height, 15’ wingspan). His easiest-to-project trait is rim defending (13.0 BLK%). He is somewhat weak at traditional Center tasks (Setting screens, being physical, etc.). Appears to have improved his below average shooting mechanics over the offseason. It would be very interesting to see how Carlisle works with Bamba and DSJ. Could they be pieces of the next great Mavs team?
Orlando Magic Wendell Carter Jr. PF/C Duke
The Magic add a Big with great measurements (wide shoulders, 6'10", 7'4.5" wingspan), a very smart player - Carter rarely found himself out of position defensively at Duke and offensively he is an able passer. He also can finish well at the rim (70% as a Blue Devil), stretch the floor (41% on limited attempts) and can put the ball on the floor if he needs to. If Orlando selects Carter, I think Magic fans can look forward to some great frontcourt play between him and Gordon (That is, before they let AG walk in FA).
Chicago Bulls Michael Porter Jr. SF/PF Missouri
Porter's high-end potential may be too much to pass on for a franchise looking for a star wing. Michael Porter Jr. was seen as the #1 pick before the CBB season started - value! At this point, MPJ's biggest question mark isn't his on-court play, it's his health. Porter has a hip/back injury and he's currently at 5090 50%. On the court, MPJ has a great looking shot for his size (6'10", 7' wingspan). His best usage in the NBA, in my opinion, will be at the PF/C position because of his lack of elite ball-handling, perimeter defense and upright (body stance) play.
The Cavs select the 6’6" point guard from Kentucky. Great standing reach for a guard (8’8”). Not extraordinarily quick. Played a lot of pick-and-roll scenarios at Kentucky. Yet to prove he can hit from outside at a high rate. Lauded for his leadership qualities. Overall, lacks glaring weaknesses which makes him an attractive option for Cleveland and others. Will be a valuable selection if he earns starter minutes. This pick fits a positional need for a LeBron Cavalier team, but with a versatile player like SGA, they aren't tied to a particular rebuild path if LeBron migrates elsewhere.
New York Knicks Kevin Knox SF/PF Kentucky
New York's future depends a fair amount on Porzingis's longterm health. With reports and speculation that the Latvian big may miss the entire season, that future seems marginally shaky. Selecting Knox is surely a bet on his development. He did not have an efficient Freshman season at Kentucky, but he has shown some nice shooting touch and has ideal size (6'9", 7' wingspan) for a modern 4. Knox is still very young (He will still be 18 years old when drafted) and may be able to develop into more of a 2-way player than he is now.
Philadelphia 76ers Mikal Bridges SF/SG Villanova
Philadelphia will look to move some picks during the draft. If they keep this one, Mikal would be a virtual no-brainer. Bridges has familial (mother works in HR) and geographical (Villanova played its home games in the Wells Fargo Center) ties to Philly. The Sixers tack on a wing who is more experienced than anyone in this projected lotto. Mikal is a terrific spot-up player (1.34 PPP, 31% of OFF possessions). A versatile defender, appears to be able to guard most 2-4s at the next level.
Charlotte Hornets Trae Young PG Oklahoma
The future of Kemba in Charlotte is unknown. There is a decent chance Kemba will be moved on draft night. With the Dwight Howard trade and possibly a Walker trade, the Hornets are looking for a speedy rebuild under new Head Coach James Borrego. Selecting Trae would be a flashy start to such a rebuild. Young has an elite shooting stroke, can pull up from anywhere, has shown the ability to find success on off-ball screen situations (1.39 PPP on a limited sample size). He finds open teammates well (48.5% AST%) and has shown a high comfort level in making a variety of different passes. He may be a defensive liability due to his lack of toughness, normal-human-like 6’3” wingspan, and overall disinterest in it. To be fair, a 37.1% Usage Rate is a valid excuse for some of his defensive short-comings. It will be interesting to see how Borrego incorporates Young into his system. As I mentioned beforehand, the Hawks are looking to move into this position in order to take Young, so he may be snatched from the Hornets or maybe the Hornets are the ones to make a deal with the Hawks - who knows.
LA Clippers Collin Sexton PG Alabama
At 12, the Clippers select Collin Sexton. The Clippers have a large range of possible outcomes in '18-'19. They have question marks surrounding DeAndre Jordan - $24M player option, Montrezl Harrell - $1.7M club option, Avery Bradley - unrestricted free agent, Gallo and PBev - injury concerns. The Clippers have let it be known that they're considering moving up in the draft, possibly to take MPJ. If they don't, Collin may be a befitting selection. Sexton is a better passePick-and-roll player than he gets credit for. Can push the ball quickly on fastbreaks. Can handle a high usage rate. Great on-court body language. No glaring weaknesses - his shooting is suspect and he has tunnel vision at times. I’m a little worried his hair will morph into Elfrid Payton 2.0.
LA Clippers Miles Bridges SF/PF Michigan State
At 13 the Clippers take an explosive player who can play off ball. Miles was a well-rounded player on offense for the Spartans. Able to score off of spot-ups, off of screens - off ball and on ball as a roll/pop man. Not afraid to dunk the ball when given the opening to do so. He’s a little undersized at the SB4 spot (6’6”, 6’9.5” wingspan). Miles Bridges has arguably more upside than his namesake, Mikal. Personally, I think 13 is tremendous value for Miles.
Denver Nuggets Lonnie Walker SG Miami (FL)
Denver had an underwhelming defensive season to say the least - 25th in DRTG, and having a limited wing rotation looks to take someone who could potentially help in those areas. Walker is very quick, has a great frame (6’4”, 6’10 wingspan) and a good looking shot - capable of playing off ball. He has the ability to get his body in positions to score, but his touch needs work - he shot 59% at the rim in his Freshman year at Miami. If he can consistently hit from the outside - and therefore pose a threat to closing-out defenders, he has the first-step ability to murder those defenders on over-closeouts. Defensively he can guard on-ball fairly well. He'll need to learn how to be an effective team defender. Look out for the Nuggets to dump salary (which would likely entail a move down) tonight.
Washington Wizards Robert Williams C/PF Texas A&M
Washington has no long-term options at Center. They may take a shot at Robert Williams with the 15th pick. There are some questions about Williams' attitude, so he should fit right in with Washington. Williams draws comparisons to DeAndre Jordan - a former Texas A&M Aggie. A prototypical rim-running big. 7-4 wingspan. Comfortable with finishing the rim (including full windmills in clutch-time on an NCAA Tournament game). Hack-a-Williams might be a thing at the next level - 47.1% last season at A&M. Never got to play much at the Center - where he’ll play in the NBA - in college, because of the more-polished Junior Tyler Davis taking those minutes. Prone to making dumb decisions on offense. While an overall solid defender, he sometimes lost trying to defend the perimeter.
Phoenix Suns Zhaire Smith SF/SG Texas Tech
Phoenix should be looking for a versatile player who can contribute in a wide variety of line-ups - which is a very long-form way to spell Zhaire Smith. Smith had some underwhelming results at the combine. He’s 6’2.75” without shoes and got out-leaped by Donte DiVincenzo, though I wouldn’t look too far into that. He is a dynamic defensive player who can guard 1-3. On offense, he is an active screener a smart passer, He can lift off the ground in a hurry and excels at offensive put-back dunks.
Milwaukee Bucks Jerome Robinson SG/PG Boston College
What the hell is happening with Jerome Robinson? I remember a time when Jerome was seen as a mid-second round pick. It appears scouts have just started to look into this guy and they like what they see apparently. Milwaukee takes fast-rising 21-year-old guard Jerome Robinson. A natural bucket-getter, the 6'6" Guard scored 20 PPG and shot 41% from 3 on 5.7 attempts in his Junior year at Boston College.
San Antonio Spurs Troy Brown Jr. SF/SG Oregon
San Antonio's wing rotation is up in the air. There's Kawhi who appears to want out, Kyle Anderson - RFA, Danny Green $10M player option, Rudy Gay declined his $8.8M player option and is a UFA. They may want another option at that spot. TBJ is a player with smart passing vision (19.1 AST% in conference play), a good mid-range game, plus rebounder for his size, is a logical defender and was third in the Pac-12 in steals as a Freshman.
Atlanta Hawks Aaron Holiday PG UCLA
If Atlanta doesn’t use this pick to move up and take Trae Young, they may select Aaron Holiday at 19. Aaron, brother of Justin and Jrue Holiday, is a 6’1 guard, with a 6’7.5” wingspan. He shot well in his Junior season at UCLA on high volume. He is also a great transition player and slasher.
Minnesota Kevin Huerter SG Maryland
Tom Thibodeau and crew look for their next victim draft pick. Kevin is a young Sophomore (19.7), younger than Bamba and Ayton. He was expected by most to return to Maryland for his Junior year until his very impressive Combine showing solidified himself as a 1st round prospect. The 6’7” guard shot 41.7% from 3 on 5.5 attempts. He has a quick release and is always a threat anywhere behind the 3pt line. In addition to his great shooting strength, he is an able passer. Defense will likely never be a plus, but he hustles.
Utah Jazz Donte DiVincenzo SG/PG Villanova
Utah struck gold with Mitchell last year. They add another combo guard in DiVincenzo. He is 6’4”, 205lb guard from Villanova, possessing a 6'6" wingspan. Relatively under the radar by most until scoring 31 in the National Championship game. Recorded a Connaughton-esque 42” vertical at the Combine. Shot 40% from deep on 5.3 Att./G. in his Sophomore year at Nova.
Chicago Bulls Elie-Franck Okobo PG/SG Pau-Lacq-Orthez/France
Chicago takes Pau-Lacq-Orthez's Elie-Franck Okobo. Okobo can score in a variety of ways - able to pull up off the dribble and shoot off-ball - has the size (6-3, 6-8 wingspan) to potentially be a competent defender.
Indiana Pacers De'Anthony Melton SG/PG USC
Indiana gave Cleveland a run-for-your-money Series in the first round. Kevin Pritchard looks pretty smart in the aftermath of the Paul George trade. The development of Oladipo, Sabonis, and Turner will be interesting to watch and they may take a combo guard like De'Anthony Melton to amalgamate with that grouping. Due to details released in the FBI investigation into various college basketball programs, Melton didn't play his sophomore year at USC. He's an incredibly smart defender who can defend 1-4 and hold his own as an offensive creator. His shooting remains a question.
Portland Trailblazers Josh Okogie SG Georgia Tech
Whether Portland has one or two of their star guards next year, they should consider drafting Okogie. As a Sophomore, the 6'4", 215lb. Okogie averaged 1.8 steals and 1.0 blocks at Georgia Tech. The 19-year-old Nigerian uses his 7ft. wingspan well on defense. Offensively, he could use some work in different facets of his game - ball handling, touch around the rim, etc., but his shooting stats (38% from 3 on 4.2 Att./G, 82% FT shooter) are promising.
Los Angeles Lakers Mitchell Robinson C United States
LA could use a defensively-capable Center. Is Robinson that, or a failed project in waiting? Mitchell has a prototypical Center’s body - stands 7’1”, with a 9’3” standing reach. He is also a versatile shot blocker. An intriguing personality to say the least. Dropped out of Western Kentucky after committing to play there. Dropped out of the draft combine after supposedly receiving a draft promise.
Philadelphia Dzanan Musa SG/SF KK Cedevita/Bosnia and Herzegovina
Philly selects the 6’9” Bosnian wing who, at 19, is already a positive contributor playing for Cedevita. Musa is a confident scorer, a great ball handler for his height, and an able distributor - However, his thin frame, below average wingspan, and defensive questions could be what holds him back from keeping a spot in the NBA.
Boston Celtics Keita Bates-Diop SF/SG Ohio State
Boston is in a very positive situation. The addition of Jerome Bates-Diop, an older, easier to project rookie fits with their timeline. Balanced player on both sides of the floor. Keita Bates-Diop is a four-year forward from The Ohio State University. While in his redshirt Junior year there, he had great shooting efficiency at all 3 levels. Measured well at the combine: Nearly 6’9” in shoes, 7’3”+ wingspan. That size + high defensive IQ = defensive versatility.
Golden State Warriors Grayson Allen SG Duke
Golden State wins their 3rd title in 4 years. With that said, it's apparent their roster has no obvious weaknesses. Well, now that I think of it, they could use a player that makes borderline dirty plays and is despised by most outside the fanbase of the team that he plays for. Having a back-up guard rotation of an aging Livingston, G-League star Cook, and injured McCaw GSW could also use a guard. Grayson Allen tested well athletically at the combine - 10.3s lane agility, 41 in. vertical. Grayson can contribute outside shooting and hustle* plays to the Warriors. The ability to hit shots consistently will make or break Allen’s NBA career. Despite his repetition, I like Allen and I think he would make a positive impact for the Warriors.
Brooklyn Nets Chandler Hutchison SF/SG Boise State
The Nets hold their own first-round pick in the 2019 draft, the first time in four years. There's a rumor that Hutchison received a promise to be drafted at this spot. Hutchison is a 6'7" wing with a 7'1" wingspan. Hutchison lead the MWC in Defensive Rating (93.3) and PER (25.9). He is noted for his great work ethic.
Atlanta Hawks Jalen Brunson PG Villanova
Is Schröder the Hawks long term PG? Almost certainly not. In fact, Dennis may not be on Atlanta's books by the time the draft reaches a conclusion. Atlanta takes another guard, this time, Jalen Brunson. ATL makes a safe pick in the AP POY Brunson. I would bet a small sum of money that TV analysts will use the “Crafty” when breaking down his tape after he is drafted. His size (6’2” height, 6’4” wingspan) and athleticism are his biggest, and nearly only, knocks. I can see him becoming a 5th man player on a good team, paired with a long, defensive guard in the backcourt.
Phoenix Suns Melvin Frazier SF/SG Tulane
Phoenix selects a defensive minded G/F from Tulane. Tested well at the Combine: Nearly 7’2” wingspan, 40.5” vertical. Frazier has great hands of defense and led the AAC in steals last season (65) and FG% (55.6). He is a bit turnover prone on offense and is not a very capable shooter at this point in his career.
Memphis Grizzlies Khyri Thomas SG Creighton
Memphis selects the gritty combo guard from Creighton. Thomas is an on-ball shutdown defender. While being projected as an archetypal 3&D off-ball guard, Thomas can distribute the ball fairly well.
Atlanta Hawks Moritz Wagner PF/C Michigan
The Hawks select the German March Madness star, Moritz Wagner. Mo solidified his place in the draft with his postseason play. Elite Pick-and-roll/pop player. A good spot-up shooter, can extend to 3-pointers (39.4% on 4.1 Att./G). Poor FT% is concerning 69.4%. Below average defender, might get stuck between Center and Forward due to the inability to defend the perimeter and his lack of toughness/length.
Dallas Mavericks Omari Spellman PF/C Villanova
Dallas takes NCAA Champion, Omari Spellman. Old for a Freshman; will be nearly 21 on draft day. Good frame - 6’9”, 245lb, 7’2” wingspan. Can stretch the floor on offense. Likes to spot up and plays well off it (1.41 PPP). Weaker on other big-man tasks - P&R, Post-ups, Put-backs, etc. Not very quick laterally on defense, but makes some vertical plays.
Orlando Magic Jacob Evans SG Cincinnati
Orlando selects a big guard who uses his strength to defend the perimeter, is a capable passer, and can hit the 3 reliably (37.7% on 4.4 Att./G during his 3 years at Cincinnati). I'm a big fan of Evans and I think he has a shot to contribute to an NBA team.
New York Knicks Jevon Carter PG West Virginia
The Knicks take a ball-handler-hounding guard, Jevon Carter. Carter regularly shut down opposing guards at WVU. He has a high motor and can find his teammates well on offense. I'm sure New York would love this guy.
Sacramento Kings Bruce Brown Jr. SG/PG Miami (FL)
The Kings take a combo guard from Miami. Coming off a foot injury and taking a step back in 3pt% (34.7 on 2.9 Att. - 26.7 on 3.2 Att.) in his Sophomore year, Brown is still a coveted prospect due to his defensive prowess and explosiveness. Brown Jr. is an older Sophomore (21.8 at time of the draft). An explosive leaper, active on-ball defender, times blocks well, good shooter off the catch - very poor on pull-ups.
Philadelphia 76ers Anfernee Simons SG/PG IMG Academy
Philadelphia selects a five-year highschool player and part-time Markelle Fultz impersonator, Anfernee Simons. Simons is a young (19.0 at draft) CG from IMG Academy. He’s 6’4”, 180lb., and has a 6’9” wingspan. He will need to get stronger, jumps forward significantly on 3s. Handles the ball well and sets himself up for mid-rangers nicely.
Los Angeles Lakers Rodions Kurucs SF/PF FC Barcelona/Latvia
What is up with all the Latvian NBA prospects? Rodions got limited minutes with Barcelona last year, but the 20-year-old but regardless, he's a coveted 2nd round selection. He's a 6'10" forward with a 7-foot wingspan, good shooting mechanics, and decent athleticism.
Brooklyn Nets Landry Shamet PG/SG Wichita State
Brooklyn takes a dynamic deep-range scorer at No. 40. Landry Shamet has a pretty shooting stroke and shot very well (44.2%) from three at a high volume (5.9 Att./G) in his redshirt Sophomore year at Wichita State. Surprisingly, measured a nearly 40 in. vertical at the Combine, though he was only so-so in scrimmage play.
Orlando Magic Gary Trent Jr. SG Duke
Orlando selects Duke Freshman Gary Trent Jr. Gary Trent is 6'6", has a 6'9" wingspan, shot 40% from three and 87% from the line in his Freshman season at Duke. The Magic potentially add a shooting threat.
Detroit Pistons Devonte' Graham PG Kansas
The Pistons have no first round pick due to the Blake Griffin trade. They recently hired former Raptors coach and COY candidate, Dwane Casey. The first rookie selected in the Casey era is Devonte' Graham. The Pistons could use some point guard depth and they'll get some immediately with Graham. The Big 12 POY is slightly undersized (6'2", 6’6” wingspan) and old (born 2/22/95), but he has shown many things teams want in a PG. He's a good shooter (40.6% on 6.9 Att./G) a solid distributor (2.8 Ast/Tov) and an active defender (1.6 Stl/G).
Denver Nuggets Jarred Vanderbilt PF/SF Kentucky
The Nuggets could use some wing depth and they may get some with Vanderbilt. Vanderbilt excels in rebounding and passing. He hasn’t shown any sign of developing an outside shot.
Washington Wizards Hamidou Diallo SG Kentucky
Washington has some roster decisions to make. After taking their hopeful Center-of-the-Future in Williams, they move on and select Diallo. “It’s f---ing raw!” - Gordon Ramsey sums up Hamidou’s game. Diallo didn't show much this year and he'll likely fall to the Second Round. He’s a good offensive transition player. Great athleticism and size (45in. vertical, 7ft wingspan) - and that’s why a team like the Wizards will draft him.
Charlotte Hornets Shake Milton SG/PG SMU
The Hornets take Malik "Shake" Milton. Shake Milton is an oversized guard (6’6”, 6’11” wingspan) from SMU. He can shoot off the ball well (1.34 PPP, 1/3 of OFF possessions) and is a solid on-ball defender. He struggled at in combine play where his lack of athleticism was apparent.
Houston Rockets Rawle Alkins SG Arizona
Houston takes Rawle Alkins. He has a great body profile. Wide shoulders, 6'9" wingspan. High motor athlete. Good shooting mechanics. Questionable decision-making on both sides of the floor. The Rockets add a powerful Guard in Alkins.
Los Angeles Lakers Kevin Hervey SF/PF Texas-Arlington
The Lakers select a wing with excellent length - 6’8”, 7’3.5” wingspan. Young Senior - won’t even be 22 at the draft. Played four years for the University of Texas-Arlington in the Sun Belt Conference - not the best competition. Shot 33.9% from 3 on 6.9 Att./G, 80.7 FT%. Rebounds well on both sides of the ball. 27.8 Career USG% at UTA, will he be able to translate to a more refined role?
Minnesota Timberwolves Trevon Duval PG Duke
Minnesota selects Trevon Duval. Duval’s stock has plummeted since High School. Still, he’s a good ISO ball handler. He can finish pretty well using his length (6'9" wingspan) with a variety of finishing shots. Overall poor decision maker and a poor 3pt shooter. He’s an athletically gifted player who a team like Minnesota may take for his potential.
San Antonio Spurs Chimezie Metu PF/C USC
San Antonio selects Chimezie Metu. Metu is a 6’10” F/C with a 7’0.5” wingspan. Metu has a fairly good post game and has been working on his 3 point game. His mechanics are projectable as a player that you don’t want to leave absolutely wide open. Metu averaged 18 and 8 with 2 BPG per 36 minutes in his Junior year at USC.
Indiana Pacers Isaac Bonga SF/PG Frankfurt Skyliners/Germany
The Pacers take a draft-and-stash point forward. Isaac Bonga is the second youngest players eligible to be drafted - 18.6 on draft date. Struggles from 3, not the greatest release. 90+ FT percentage is encouraging. Good passer.
New Orleans Pacers Justin Jackson SF/PF Maryland
Only one pick for the Pelicans this year and it's at 51. New Orleans selects Justin Jackson. Jackson's stock dropped after a lost Sophomore season at Maryland. He was inefficient before ending his season due to injury. The Pelicans take a chance due to his potential upside (6’7”, 7’3” wingspan).
Utah Jazz Issuf Sanon SG/PG Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk/Ukraine
The Jazz take Issuf Sanon - the youngest player in the draft. He's a 18.6-year-old Ukrainian guard. 6’4”,185lb. Not the most athletic guard in the class but can finish at the rim fairly well. Sanon can shoot with confidence both on/off the ball. Throws his feet forward a little on jump shots. Will need to get stronger.
Oklahoma City Thunder Tony Carr PG Penn State
The Thunder take a guard from Penn State. The 6'5" Sophomore Point Guard has a slightly unconventional shooting execution, hopping forward and making a pushing motion high in the air. It has worked thus far. He killed the Big Ten last year averaging 20PPG on 43% 3-point shooting. Decent spot-up player. Should be able to play off ball.
Dallas Mavericks Malik Newman SG/PG Kansas
Dallas takes Malik Newman. The redshirt Sophomore transferred from Mississippi State to Kansas after his Freshman year. A five-star recruit out of high school, Newman didn’t quite live up to the hype. However, he showed in flashes last year why he was ranked so highly. He can pull up from range and hit the 3-ball efficiently: 41% on 5.3 attempts this last year.
Charlotte Hornets Kostas Antetokounmpo PF Dayton
Brother of Bucks star Forward Giannis, Kostas is one of four physically gifted basketball-playing brothers. Kostas is a 6’10 forward with a 7’2.25” wingspan and a 9’2.5” standing reach. The 20-year-old was largely unimpressive in his one year at Dayton, though he did post a notable 8.3 BLK%. Charlotte swings for the fences with this pick, hoping Kostas can become a versatile defender and improve in a Giannis-like trajectory.
Philadelphia 76ers Brandon McCoy C UNLV
The 76ers take a shot on a project. Brandon McCoy is a 7’0” Freshman Center with a 7'2" wingspan. Played last season for UNLV. A bit stiff and lacks instincts, but can rebound and finish fairly well.
Oklahoma City Thunder Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk SG Kansas
OKC takes Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk. Mykhailiuk is a 6’7” guard with a minus wingspan (6’5”) who shot 44.4% from 3 on 6.6 attempts in his Senior season at Kansas, and despite being a senior, he will have just turned 21 by the time the draft rolls around.
Denver Nuggets Raymond Spalding C/PF Louisville
Ray Spalding is a Junior big man from Louisville. Spalding is 6’10” and possesses a 7’5” wingspan - which he uses fairly well to get blocks (6.3 BLK%) and steals (3.1 STL%). Spalding was also a capable offensive rebounder at Louisville (2nd in the ACC junior year) and can throw down dunks on the move. He doesn’t have much of an offensive game outside of that, however.
Phoenix Suns Kenrich Williams SF TCU
Very smart player, also very old (23.6 on draft date). No glaring weaknesses, though not elite athlete, FT shooter. Rebounds well for position. A versatile player who should contribute positively right from the get-go.
Philadelphia 76ers Arnoldas Kulboka SF Betaland Capo d’Orlanda/Lithuania
Kulboka is a 6’10” forward from Lithuania. The 20-year-old played 29 games for Betaland Capo d’Orlanda in Italy’s Lega A last year, shooting 36.7% from deep on 4.4 Att./G.. He has excellent shooting mechanics and is a consistent FT shooter. He will have to continue to gain strength and learn to be physical if he wants to make it in the NBA.
Toronto Raptors and Miami Heat: Both these teams have been rumored to be shopping for picks. I wouldn't be surprised if all 30 franchises made a selection tonight.
Undrafted Free Agents I like
Barford, Jaylen Fun to watch. The Senior (22.4 at draft date) is an absolute 3-point threat, lighting up SEC opponents while shooting 43.1% on 5.8 attempts. Built-up frame (6-3, 205), he can finish through contact. Only had 2.5 AST last season.
Clark, Gary The four-year Forward excels in rebounding (lead the AAC in both OFF and DEF rebounding - all-time leader in career OFF rebounds) and defense (career 1.2 STL, 1.3 BLK for Cincy) shot 43% from three on 1.7 Att./G.
Colson, Bonzie Poor man's Draymond. Played the undersized 4 in at Notre Dame. Can do a little bit of everything and has good defensive numbers: 7.4 BLK%, 5.1 DBPM in Senior season.
Edwards, Vince Edwards is a four year forward from Purdue. During his tenure there, he provided the Boilermakers with offensive versatility and defensive rebounding. On offense, he can handle the ball in transition and find open teammates (19.6 career AST%) - in half court situations, he is a nifty cutter (1.44 PPP senior year) and he should be able to stretch the floor at the next level, scoring 39.8% of his 6.8 3pt Att./G. Defensively he may struggle to keep up with the quickest 3’s and hold his ground against the best 4’s, but his 7’0” wingspan and decent frame and defensive IQ may allow him to play rotation minutes in the NBA.
Hall, Devon An NBA ready redshirt Senior guard. Devon Hall was an effective defender for Virginia last season and a capable shooter, making 43.2% of his 3.9 3pt attempts per game.
Omot, Nuni Senior from Baylor. Listed 6’9”, 210lb., 7’3” wingspan. Will be 23.6 on draft date. The Kenyan grew 8 inches since his junior year of high school. Shot 43.3% from 3 on a 53.8 3PAr. Shot 85.5% from the line. 64.2% True Shooting Percentage. Good looking release for his size, a little slow. Likes the corner 3. Has several dribble moves (behind the back, dribble-jab) that allow him to get separation. High release, can easily shoot over wing defenders. Defense isn’t the best, but certainly has the length to help him.
Penava, Ajdin A skilled shot-blocker (had an NCAA best 3.9 BPG last season) who may be able to stretch the floor (34% from 3 on 2.9 Att./G, shot 75% from the line). Ajdin is extremely comfortable with the ball in hands - playing guard before having a major growth spurt. He frequently shows off his passing vision on offense, which is an encouraging sign for translatability. I love prospects like Peneva (unique/skilled) and I hope he gets an NBA contract.
Thanks for reading! Feel free to correct any mistakes. There are a ton of teams looking to trade up or down, so I can't wait to see how fast this mock becomes useless.
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