Margin Definition

The forex market provides an excellent business opportunity. But, the tricky part is dealing with its uncertainty. You don’t get fixed margins as in other businesses. Still, everybody can make it big in the Forex market. Know more here https://wetalktrade.com/forex-trading-tips/

The forex market provides an excellent business opportunity. But, the tricky part is dealing with its uncertainty. You don’t get fixed margins as in other businesses. Still, everybody can make it big in the Forex market. Know more here https://wetalktrade.com/forex-trading-tips/ submitted by Wetalktrade to u/Wetalktrade [link] [comments]

I don't see where my profits are

Traded short 5000 contracts entry at 6392 at marker, exit at 6380 limit. Margin 100x
Screen shots show my trade
https://imgur.com/a/ji2ryk0
Using ministry of margin trading excel sheet (THANKS). I qualify at FEES3a/Scenario 3
https://imgur.com/QIwxz2N
Sheets say I should have earned usd 7.17 nett. Where do I find this statement in BITMEX ? I know the usd 7.17 is converted using bitmex index to xbt.

submitted by crittertoo to BitMEX [link] [comments]

Are a lot of us Redditors Margin trading? It is an excellent way to make some money (especially right now) in a bear market, and it seems to be overlooked.

When I opened my Kraken account just over a year ago, I almost immediately noticed the options for margin trading. I didn't know what most of it meant, other than that I was able to short, and make money on a crash.
I spent a good bit of time ( and lost even more money, lol) trying to learn the concepts, but when I finally understood it all, I actually started to make some money from my measly initial investment, using leverage.
I don't see it talked about much on here, and was wondering why? I know it's much more hands on, but it seems like the majority of BTC investors are smart people, who actively invest time into their monetary investment.
submitted by NeedAHandlebar to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Had a very good conversation with the newly elected President of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro, who won his race by a substantial margin. We agreed that Brazil and the United States will work closely together on Trade, Military and everything else! Excellent call, wished him congrats!

Had a very good conversation with the newly elected President of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro, who won his race by a substantial margin. We agreed that Brazil and the United States will work closely together on Trade, Military and everything else! Excellent call, wished him congrats! submitted by trippyreading to brasilivre [link] [comments]

President Trump: "Had a very good conversation with the newly elected President of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro, who won his race by a substantial margin. We agreed that Brazil and the United States will work closely together on Trade, Military and everything else! Excellent call, wished him congrats!"

President Trump: submitted by rTrumpTweetsBot to trumptweets [link] [comments]

Had a very good conversation with the newly elected President of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro, who won his race by a substantial margin. We agreed that Brazil and the United States will work closely together on Trade, Military and everything else! Excellent call, wished him congrats!

Had a very good conversation with the newly elected President of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro, who won his race by a substantial margin. We agreed that Brazil and the United States will work closely together on Trade, Military and everything else! Excellent call, wished him congrats! submitted by News_Release_Bot to trump [link] [comments]

@realDonaldTrump: Had a very good conversation with the newly elected President of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro, who won his race by a substantial margin. We agreed that Brazil and the United States will work closely together on Trade, Military and everything else! Excellent call, wished him congrats!

@realDonaldTrump: Had a very good conversation with the newly elected President of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro, who won his race by a substantial margin. We agreed that Brazil and the United States will work closely together on Trade, Military and everything else! Excellent call, wished him congrats! submitted by SextacularSpiderman to TrumpsTweets [link] [comments]

@realDonaldTrump: Had a very good conversation with the newly elected President of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro, who won his race by a substantial margin. We agreed that Brazil and the United States will work closely together on Trade, Military and everything else! Excellent call, wished him congrats!

@realDonaldTrump: Had a very good conversation with the newly elected President of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro, who won his race by a substantial margin. We agreed that Brazil and the United States will work closely together on Trade, Military and everything else! Excellent call, wished him congrats! submitted by bobcat to RealDonaldTrump [link] [comments]

@realDonaldTrump: Had a very good conversation with the newly elected President of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro, who won his race by a substantial margin. We agreed that Brazil and the United States will work closely together on Trade, Military and everything else! Excellent call, wished him congrats!

@realDonaldTrump: Had a very good conversation with the newly elected President of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro, who won his race by a substantial margin. We agreed that Brazil and the United States will work closely together on Trade, Military and everything else! Excellent call, wished him congrats! submitted by thefeedbot to TheTwitterFeed [link] [comments]

Had a very good conversation with the newly elected President of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro, who won his race by a substantial margin. We agreed that Brazil and the United States will work closely together on Trade, Military and everything else! Excellent call, wished him congrats!

submitted by thegamechat to tweetsfromtrump [link] [comments]

Had a very good conversation with the newly elected President of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro, who won his race by a substantial margin. We agreed that Brazil and the United States will work closely together on Trade, Military and everything else! Excellent call, wished him congrats!

Had a very good conversation with the newly elected President of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro, who won his race by a substantial margin. We agreed that Brazil and the United States will work closely together on Trade, Military and everything else! Excellent call, wished him congrats! submitted by PeterCornswalled to Frei_Donald [link] [comments]

Baseball Card Flipping Project - Part 16

Hey guys!
It has been FOREVER since my last update and a ton has happened. Sorry for the long post, but hopefully some people appreciate a detailed dive into everything.
A really really really brief recap of the past fifteen parts
I started in December of 2018 with $1,165 with the goal of making $10,000 in one year. In 2019, I had bought and sold over $40k in baseball, football and various sports trading cards. I had a few great successes ($1,165 into $3,085 before fees - $2,771.20 into $6,200.10 before fees - $1,086.68 into $3,190.54 before fees) and a few duds. I generally sell my cards on ebay, but utilize auction houses every now and then. The biggest bottleneck I face is submitting cards to PSA (a third party grading company), a card might have a 2-4 month turnaround time. To successfully "flip" you need to balance some of these purchases with shorter flips. In 2019, I ended with a final profit of $9,262.28 – a tad bit short of my goal. In 2020, my goal is $20,000 (fitting). Using my margins from 2019, I would need to sell around $85k in cards.
You can find the previous installment here
PERSONAL UPDATE
First, I hope everyone is doing well and staying sane. It has been an absolutely wild three months for me, I found out I’m going to be an uncle, I got a cat and I decided I was going to propose to my girlfriend this weekend! I have still been keeping up with this project, the prices for baseball cards have absolutely skyrocketed over the past couple months, so there hasn’t been the same amount of buying as usual. I am going insane with working from home and trying to keep my head above water with everything, but flipping has been (at times) a nice escape. I am fortunate enough to be flipping something that I am passionate about, baseball cards, so I am able to enjoy this and see a lot of neat cards along the way.
In that spirit I have decided to begin keeping some cards for my personal collection as I go along. I read somewhere an interesting method of collecting, reducing your collection to 25 cards. I wanted to give it a shot with a bit of a twist, I want to keep a collection of 25 cards, but still make a profit along the way. So a couple ground rules I set for myself: * The collection is limited to vintage baseball cards (generally 1980’s and older). This was my first collecting passion and I’d like to try to keep to it.
So, without further ado, here are the first four cards in this project. The 1949 Berra came from the Yogi Berra lot I bought from SCP in January. The grades finally came back last week and I did very well on a few cards, so I felt that I deserved to spoil myself a bit. The 1949 Bowman set holds a special spot in my heart for me, my best flip ever was a group of 1949 Bowman cards I purchased for $300 which included a Jackie Robinson rookie that graded PSA 8! I sold it for over $10k. This Yogi Berra card is well centered, nice registration and a great mid-grade example of a baseball icon. I love it. The Ted Williams card and the Willie Mays both came from the December Heritage lot that I had purchased. PSA took FOREVER on this order. I was a little disappointed in the overall grades, but am confident I will turn a profit. The 1956 Topps Ted Williams is such a cool card and a staple in post-war collecting. The Mays I always liked – it’s a little beat up, but the centering is near perfect and the color looks sharp. Finally, I nabbed the 1969 Yaz. This was mostly done because I love the set. 1969 Topps was the last set to feature Mickey Mantle, something that I think goes underappreciated. The set design has always been pretty crisp, it has a couple great rookies and great all-star rookie cards. I’m a fan. Anyways! None of these cards are permanent, I can sell them at any time, but I’d imagine they will be in the collection a while.
Purchased
What Sold
PSA Update
Here is a link to the Google Doc with the status of all of my PSA cards. The spreadsheet also includes a summary of where the project is.
PSA is still extremely backlogged. For this project, I have 276 items with them. Luckily I was able to get quite a few cards back from them recently! As I previously mentioned, I received back the Yogi Berra cards I sent them in January and the Heritage cards I sent in December. Overall I am happy enough with the grades. I think they were fair on the Berra cards and they were rough on the Heritage cards (they were separate orders). I already listed or consigned these cards, so I will have updates next month on these.
Below is an updated summary:
For items purchased in 2019 (denoted with a “*”), the “cost” column represents the ending 2019 inventory valuation. For items purchased in 2020, the cost column is the cost. In the Google Sheet I included an in-depth P&L with full results and 2019 details.
Item Cost* Sold Fees Inventory^ Profit
1936 Goudey Lot (8) 50.00 56.50 (8.48) - (1.98)
Hank Aaron "Odd-Ball" Collection 150.00 777.29 (116.59) - 510.70
(16) Pre-WWII card lot w/ Cobb 1,300.00 1,708.52 (256.28) - 152.24
(23) Sandy Koufax 1950's and 1960's lot 250.00 299.50 (44.93) - 4.57
1977-1979 Topps Baseball Rack & Cello Packs (6) 250.00 380.00 (57.00) - 73.00
1957 Swift Meats Game Complete Set (18) 800.00 680.00 (102.00) (222.00)
(36) 1950s-2000s Multi-Sports Collection 500.00 1,528.51 (229.28) - 799.23
1933-1989 Wax Pack Wrapper Hoard (650+) 400.00 1,918.01 (287.70) - 1,230.31
1941-2004 Multi-Sport Group (33) 800.00 2,859.83 (428.97) 100.00 1,730.86
1912 B18 Blanket Find (100) 1,270.80 1,136.24 (170.44) 500.00 195.00
1962-63 Parkhurst Hockey Lot (45+) 500.00 287.26 (43.09) 400.00 144.17
1953 to 1969 Mickey Mantle Group (16) 1,000.00 2,747.85 (412.18) 150.00 1,485.67
1956-1959 Baseball Star Collection (48) 1,130.00 322.04 (48.31) 900.00 43.73
1961-1969 Baseball Star Collection (61) 804.95 257.78 (38.67) 600.00 14.16
1948-1965 Yogi Berra Collection (26) 1,400.00 399.50 (59.93) 1,050.00 (10.43)
Lot of (4) Signed Perez-Steele Postcards 676.59 - 676.59 -
1950's-1980's Football Wrapper Lot (42) 920.00 1,944.23 (291.63) 732.60
1953 Topps Partial Set (208) 1,472.00 2,855.13 (428.27) 100.00 1,054.86
1953-55 Dormand Postcard Set (47/52) 685.00 804.85 (120.73) 250.00 249.12
1959 & 1960 Venezuela Topps Lot (34) 216.00 58.66 (8.80) 200.00 33.86
1959 Topps Baseball High Grade Set 1,557.30 1,132.80 (169.92) 1,000.00 405.58
1970 Topps Super Proofs Lot (12) 405.41 493.75 (74.06) 200.00 214.28
1887 Allen & Ginter Boxing Lot (14) 403.40 403.40 -
1954 Topps Starter Set (119/250) 662.22 707.50 (106.13) 500.00 439.16
1947 Bond Bread Jackie Robinson Lot (6) 2,220.00 2,125.00 (318.75) 1,480.00 1,066.25
1934 R310 Butterfinger Ruth & Gehrig Lot (2) 720.00 720.00 -
1959 Topps Baseball Near Set (571/572) 3,620.00 3,620.00 -
1973 Topps Complete Set 2,512.40 6,347.41 (952.11) 600.00 3,482.90
1961 Topps PSA Graded Set 5,791.60 11,445.51 (1,716.83) 100.00 4,037.08
2013 Bowman Chrome Judge Black Wave Auto 1,940.00 1,940.00 -
1961-1982 Signed Card Lot (19) 1,364.40 1,120.00 (168.00) 800.00 387.60
35,772.07 44,393.67 (6,659.05) 16,289.99 18,252.54
*-denotes inventory purchased in 2019 valued at 2019 y/e figures. ^ -inventory on hand is valued at a conservative estimate of fair market value for remaining items. `-grading fees are expensed when the card is sent to PSA, fees are not paid until PSA has completed the order. Fees that are expensed, but not paid are sitting in Accounts Payable below.
2020 Grading Fees`: $2,944.79
Current On Hand
Cash: $5,588.15
Inventory See the Google sheet
ALSO! If anyone is interested in what the financials for this project would look like, see below. With 2019 officially in the book, I moved the final 2019 financial statement over for a year-over-year comparison:
As of 8/25/2020 2020 YTD 2019 Final
Cash $5,588.15 $1,680.15
Accounts Receivable $6,743.43 $-
Inventory^ 16,289.99 $10,605.75
Accounts Payable` ($2,886.54) ($1,858.62)
Retained Earnings ($9,262.28) $-
Initial Capital ($1,165.00) ($1,165.00)
Revenue ($44,393.67) ($40,163.15)
Cost of Goods Sold $19,482.08 $22,582.96
Fees (15% of Rev.) $6,659.05 $5,956.97
Grading Fees $2,944.79 $2,360.93
FORECAST
My goal is $20,000 profit for the year. Right now I’m $15,307.75 – PSA has dramatically slowed turnover, but I am definitely on pace to hit my goal, gross margins are up in 2020 compared to 2019 (56.1% vs. 43.8%) and net margins are also up (34.5% vs 23.1%). Sales more than doubled since the last installment and with orders finally coming back from PSA, I should continue to see steady sales.
I look forward to continuing to update everyone on this. Hope you enjoy as much as I do.
Jason
submitted by MachiavellianFuck to Flipping [link] [comments]

How do you manage lots of trades? Any trading journal or spreadsheets?

I trade a lot and often have 3 instances of TOS open with multiple accounts and literally 100 or more positions at any time. I have a challenge managing all of them. I find the Account statement tab to be sort of useful but I have a hard time managing it all.
The only way to keep track of my trades is the Notes field but that's pretty 1999 tech here in 2020.
What do people use here to manage their trades? Trading journal software? Spreadsheets? Airtable? Other?
For instance I buy an option of XYZ because I read an event may happen in 3 weeks so I should pay attention the day before to assess, I would LOVE to be able to EASILY put that somewhere so I can see it and act and remember why I bought the option. Many other similar cases like that too.
I'd love to hear some ideas, TOS is like a giant swiss army knife of trading but its weak on this area.
submitted by Brains4Fun to thinkorswim [link] [comments]

CapitalMind Chase : Trend based market timing strategy on Nifty futures involving leverage.

I stumbled upon this article on CapitalMind blog which lead to this whole research of trying to reverse engineering the strategy :
Blog : https://www.capitalmind.in/2020/07/introducing-capitalmind-chase-a-systematic-index-trend-following-strategy/
So.. Capitalmind has apparently come up with this strategy on NIFTY futures trading which essentially tries to time the market based on certain set of rules to avoid drawdowns. They've made only the results public, so the methodology is behind paywall and hence not something I can access, but here's some of the basics that I understood out of it :
This way, they can essentially get 2x returns out of the bullish cycles and get 1x (or none) of the drawdown from the bearish cycles or dips.
What I believe they're doing :
They backtested this strategy from 2008 onwards (to factor for GFC) and claim that Capitalmind Chase has delivered an annualized return of 37.41 %, while a buy and hold on NIFTY delivered close to 8.20% since 2008.
Here's an introduction article which has infographics for the same : https://www.capitalmind.in/2020/07/introducing-capitalmind-chase-a-systematic-index-trend-following-strategy/
Another article that goes into more detail : https://www.capitalmind.in/2020/08/capitalmind-chase-roaring-day-and-night/
They also made a podcast for this, but I followed only half before I dozed off : https://www.capitalmind.in/2020/08/podcast-31-how-trend-following-can-make-buy-and-hold-bette
It does look interesting, but the only tricky part is they aren't making the details public (which is understandable since it's premium) which leads to uncertainty. Also apparently they're going to give calls on when to buy/sell to their premium members which I'm not sure how I feel about.
But since we have the excel data, it's possible to make some sense out of it and figure out what indicators they're using. It's interesting strategy either way.
I'm not very sure on where to go with this, so I'm making an initial version of this post and will update it as I do more research on it, but it does look something promising.
Note : This post does not promote leaking their methodology in any way. The aim of this post is merely to try and reverse engineer it instead. Since the primary part of this, i.e indicators and weightages are the most important factor, we are merely trying to figure out what's the correct way to try and mimic something similar.
submitted by IrtahkEnt to IndianStreetBets [link] [comments]

PRPL Nurps got twisted, How to interpret and move forward - I was wrong

PRPL Nurps got twisted, How to interpret and move forward - I was wrong

Just about how I feel
Alright ladies and Gentleman- Many of you gambled with me on a purple earnings play and it didn't quite materialize as expected - I hope many of you purchased some of the lower more conservative debit spreads as they should be profitable still.

Current Moves
I took some time on earnings day, after hours to unload some shares as well as warrants with the expectation that the sell off would push us down to around 20.00, it appears that the selloff is mostly done as we've dropped about 4.5 from Thursday intraday peak.
I have begun selling cash secured puts for September expiration, 20.00 strike As I do not believe purple will drop past 18.65, which is the breakeven point for those puts.
Awesome quarter but not as awesome as expected
Alright, even though Purple didn't come close to my 225M estimate, it still had an amazing quarter in terms of fundaments. Purple achieved about 122M in revenue in Q1 and 165M in revenue in Q2, that is an impressive feat, especially considering they appeared to shutdown operations for a couple of weeks and that created deferred orders for Q3.
Adjusted earnings of 60+ cents per share, this excludes one time charges. This is actually an impressive number and beat many of the analysts expectations. The headlines showing the miss reported on GAAP, not adjusted.
Joe Megibow indicated that PRPL would have about 1B in capacity by the end of 2021, that is definitely an excellent reason to hold your investment or look for an entry.
After the call there were still price upgrades from almost every analyst as the year over year growth is very very impressive, especially for a manufacturing company.

Tip ranks price targets as of 11PM eastern

Going forward
I believe the worst of the sell off is over and I expect that we will likely trade in the 21-25 dollar range from now until the next earnings. I have since exited about 60K shares of stock and about 60K warrants as I believe cash secured puts are a better play for the next couple of months. I will be selling puts for 20.00. on my remaining shares I will be selling covered call with 30 strikes.
I am also still holding my 22.5/25.00 debit spreads for October and I will hold my 25/30 and 25/35 debit spreads for January as I believe November could be a very very good earnings as the stock price will hopefully trade only slightly up and the accrual for warrants will be much smaller.
Revenue possibilities for Q3.
I believe that Q3 max revenue will likely be in the 200 Million range. This is due to PRPL running full production for 12 weeks instead of 10 and the additional 7th machine that is available for the entire quarter rather than just a single month of the quarter.
I believe that Purple will not quite achieve 200M in revenue because there will be a shift into wholesale that will push down top line, slightly, this is based on the comments from the calls. I believe purple will likely only achieve about 15% more revenue in Q3 than Q2, which is still impressive. This is my quick envelope calculation.
It is still early but I expect somewhere in the 180-190M range and gross Margin around 46-47%.

Capital structure
I was optimistic that this quarter would push us to a point where we could clean up the warrant situation but it appears that we will have another quarter of accruals and reversals. I was asked by u/indonesian_activist to detail the capital structure, I will try to do that in a follow on post as it is not as clean as I'd like but I don't believe it is a show stopper as the company is still producing healthy amounts of cash, gross margin improvement and market share improvement.

The capital structure is also promising because the founders still have a large stake in the company. Founder led companies are very very good.
My positions before and through earnings
No I didn't sell anything before the call. The first transaction In my account on 8/13 is selling warrants for 5.00 (which is cheaper than they are going for now and cheaper than they went for at any other time that earnings day). i was hoping to re-purchase if the stock plummeted, which it didn't so it cost be about 75K between shares and warrants.
I've broken down my first trade details and then shown a summary of every subsequent purchase. This is probably the last time I will go into this detail because it's time consuming, but i held every penny through earnings.

First After hours trade on 8/13, just above 8/12.


First trade is the 509.98 shown above, each following trade is above- goes from newest to oldest as the list goes down.
Current Position as of tonight
I sold 400 CSP contracts on Friday and I sold my 22.5 calls for about 1.00 on Friday as well as they were almost as expensive as the day I bought them. I am now holding a naked position as I have -2910 25.00 PRPL calls in the market.
I am holding the remainder of my calls and debit spreads.
I hope you guys made out ok- most of the more conservative spreads are still net positive. I will not lie about my moves but I also am not going to post my moves real time as sometimes they are time sensitive.

https://preview.redd.it/wop4lqmsnhh51.jpg?width=444&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a20cd3225354ec8ecb02575d445f4edff29d7665

https://preview.redd.it/gjp9squwnhh51.jpg?width=435&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=36fc2b3e785fc78a8335385cd13f48b3277a9015
God speed Autists. Do your own research- I learned all my investing skills through Tik Tok.

Matt
submitted by dhsmatt2 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Selling Project - Part 16

Hey guys!
It has been FOREVER since my last update and a ton has happened. Sorry for the long post, but hopefully some people appreciate a detailed dive into everything.
A really really really brief recap of the past fifteen parts
I started in December of 2018 with $1,165 with the goal of making $10,000 in one year. In 2019, I had bought and sold over $40k in baseball, football and various sports trading cards. I had a few great successes ($1,165 into $3,085 before fees - $2,771.20 into $6,200.10 before fees - $1,086.68 into $3,190.54 before fees) and a few duds. I generally sell my cards on ebay, but utilize auction houses every now and then. The biggest bottleneck I face is submitting cards to PSA (a third party grading company), a card might have a 2-4 month turnaround time. To successfully "flip" you need to balance some of these purchases with shorter flips. In 2019, I ended with a final profit of $9,262.28 – a tad bit short of my goal. In 2020, my goal is $20,000 (fitting). Using my margins from 2019, I would need to sell around $85k in cards.
I also keep a few cards for my personal collection (more on that below). Here are the cards I have kept so far.
You can find the previous installment here
PERSONAL UPDATE
First, I hope everyone is doing well and staying sane. It has been an absolutely wild three months for me, I found out I’m going to be an uncle, I got a cat and I decided I was going to propose to my girlfriend this weekend! I have still been keeping up with this project, the prices for baseball cards have absolutely skyrocketed over the past couple months, so there hasn’t been the same amount of buying as usual. I am going insane with working from home and trying to keep my head above water with everything, but flipping has been (at times) a nice escape. I am fortunate enough to be flipping something that I am passionate about, baseball cards, so I am able to enjoy this and see a lot of neat cards along the way.
In that spirit I have decided to begin keeping some cards for my personal collection as I go along. I read somewhere an interesting method of collecting, reducing your collection to 25 cards. I wanted to give it a shot with a bit of a twist, I want to keep a collection of 25 cards, but still make a profit along the way. So a couple ground rules I set for myself: * The collection is limited to vintage baseball cards (generally 1980’s and older). This was my first collecting passion and I’d like to try to keep to it.
So, without further ado, here are the first four cards in this project. The 1949 Berra came from the Yogi Berra lot I bought from SCP in January. The grades finally came back last week and I did very well on a few cards, so I felt that I deserved to spoil myself a bit. The 1949 Bowman set holds a special spot in my heart for me, my best flip ever was a group of 1949 Bowman cards I purchased for $300 which included a Jackie Robinson rookie that graded PSA 8! I sold it for over $10k. This Yogi Berra card is well centered, nice registration and a great mid-grade example of a baseball icon. I love it. The Ted Williams card and the Willie Mays both came from the December Heritage lot that I had purchased. PSA took FOREVER on this order. I was a little disappointed in the overall grades, but am confident I will turn a profit. The 1956 Topps Ted Williams is such a cool card and a staple in post-war collecting. The Mays I always liked – it’s a little beat up, but the centering is near perfect and the color looks sharp. Finally, I nabbed the 1969 Yaz. This was mostly done because I love the set. 1969 Topps was the last set to feature Mickey Mantle, something that I think goes underappreciated. The set design has always been pretty crisp, it has a couple great rookies and great all-star rookie cards. I’m a fan. Anyways! None of these cards are permanent, I can sell them at any time, but I’d imagine they will be in the collection a while.
Purchased
What Sold
PSA Update
Here is a link to the Google Doc with the status of all of my PSA cards. The spreadsheet also includes a summary of where the project is.
PSA is still extremely backlogged. For this project, I have 276 items with them. Luckily I was able to get quite a few cards back from them recently! As I previously mentioned, I received back the Yogi Berra cards I sent them in January and the Heritage cards I sent in December. Overall I am happy enough with the grades. I think they were fair on the Berra cards and they were rough on the Heritage cards (they were separate orders). I already listed or consigned these cards, so I will have updates next month on these.
Below is an updated summary:
For items purchased in 2019 (denoted with a “*”), the “cost” column represents the ending 2019 inventory valuation. For items purchased in 2020, the cost column is the cost. In the Google Sheet I included an in-depth P&L with full results and 2019 details.
Item Cost* Sold Fees Inventory^ Profit
1936 Goudey Lot (8) 50.00 56.50 (8.48) - (1.98)
Hank Aaron "Odd-Ball" Collection 150.00 777.29 (116.59) - 510.70
(16) Pre-WWII card lot w/ Cobb 1,300.00 1,708.52 (256.28) - 152.24
(23) Sandy Koufax 1950's and 1960's lot 250.00 299.50 (44.93) - 4.57
1977-1979 Topps Baseball Rack & Cello Packs (6) 250.00 380.00 (57.00) - 73.00
1957 Swift Meats Game Complete Set (18) 800.00 680.00 (102.00) (222.00)
(36) 1950s-2000s Multi-Sports Collection 500.00 1,528.51 (229.28) - 799.23
1933-1989 Wax Pack Wrapper Hoard (650+) 400.00 1,918.01 (287.70) - 1,230.31
1941-2004 Multi-Sport Group (33) 800.00 2,859.83 (428.97) 100.00 1,730.86
1912 B18 Blanket Find (100) 1,270.80 1,136.24 (170.44) 500.00 195.00
1962-63 Parkhurst Hockey Lot (45+) 500.00 287.26 (43.09) 400.00 144.17
1953 to 1969 Mickey Mantle Group (16) 1,000.00 2,747.85 (412.18) 150.00 1,485.67
1956-1959 Baseball Star Collection (48) 1,130.00 322.04 (48.31) 900.00 43.73
1961-1969 Baseball Star Collection (61) 804.95 257.78 (38.67) 600.00 14.16
1948-1965 Yogi Berra Collection (26) 1,400.00 399.50 (59.93) 1,050.00 (10.43)
Lot of (4) Signed Perez-Steele Postcards 676.59 - 676.59 -
1950's-1980's Football Wrapper Lot (42) 920.00 1,944.23 (291.63) 732.60
1953 Topps Partial Set (208) 1,472.00 2,855.13 (428.27) 100.00 1,054.86
1953-55 Dormand Postcard Set (47/52) 685.00 804.85 (120.73) 250.00 249.12
1959 & 1960 Venezuela Topps Lot (34) 216.00 58.66 (8.80) 200.00 33.86
1959 Topps Baseball High Grade Set 1,557.30 1,132.80 (169.92) 1,000.00 405.58
1970 Topps Super Proofs Lot (12) 405.41 493.75 (74.06) 200.00 214.28
1887 Allen & Ginter Boxing Lot (14) 403.40 403.40 -
1954 Topps Starter Set (119/250) 662.22 707.50 (106.13) 500.00 439.16
1947 Bond Bread Jackie Robinson Lot (6) 2,220.00 2,125.00 (318.75) 1,480.00 1,066.25
1934 R310 Butterfinger Ruth & Gehrig Lot (2) 720.00 720.00 -
1959 Topps Baseball Near Set (571/572) 3,620.00 3,620.00 -
1973 Topps Complete Set 2,512.40 6,347.41 (952.11) 600.00 3,482.90
1961 Topps PSA Graded Set 5,791.60 11,445.51 (1,716.83) 100.00 4,037.08
2013 Bowman Chrome Judge Black Wave Auto 1,940.00 1,940.00 -
1961-1982 Signed Card Lot (19) 1,364.40 1,120.00 (168.00) 800.00 387.60
35,772.07 44,393.67 (6,659.05) 16,289.99 18,252.54
*-denotes inventory purchased in 2019 valued at 2019 y/e figures. ^ -inventory on hand is valued at a conservative estimate of fair market value for remaining items. `-grading fees are expensed when the card is sent to PSA, fees are not paid until PSA has completed the order. Fees that are expensed, but not paid are sitting in Accounts Payable below.
2020 Grading Fees`: $2,944.79
Current On Hand
Cash: $5,588.15
Inventory See the Google sheet
ALSO! If anyone is interested in what the financials for this project would look like, see below. With 2019 officially in the book, I moved the final 2019 financial statement over for a year-over-year comparison:
As of 8/25/2020 2020 YTD 2019 Final
Cash $5,588.15 $1,680.15
Accounts Receivable $6,743.43 $-
Inventory^ 16,289.99 $10,605.75
Accounts Payable` ($2,886.54) ($1,858.62)
Retained Earnings ($9,262.28) $-
Initial Capital ($1,165.00) ($1,165.00)
Revenue ($44,393.67) ($40,163.15)
Cost of Goods Sold $19,482.08 $22,582.96
Fees (15% of Rev.) $6,659.05 $5,956.97
Grading Fees $2,944.79 $2,360.93
FORECAST
My goal is $20,000 profit for the year. Right now I’m $15,307.75 – PSA has dramatically slowed turnover, but I am definitely on pace to hit my goal, gross margins are up in 2020 compared to 2019 (56.1% vs. 43.8%) and net margins are also up (34.5% vs 23.1%). Sales more than doubled since the last installment and with orders finally coming back from PSA, I should continue to see steady sales.
I look forward to continuing to update everyone on this. Hope you enjoy as much as I do.
Jason
submitted by MachiavellianFuck to baseballcards [link] [comments]

Baseball Card Flipping Project - Part 16

Hey guys!
It has been FOREVER since my last update and a ton has happened. Sorry for the long post, but hopefully some people appreciate a detailed dive into everything.
A really really really brief recap of the past fifteen parts
I started in December of 2018 with $1,165 with the goal of making $10,000 in one year. In 2019, I had bought and sold over $40k in baseball, football and various sports trading cards. I had a few great successes ($1,165 into $3,085 before fees - $2,771.20 into $6,200.10 before fees - $1,086.68 into $3,190.54 before fees) and a few duds. I generally sell my cards on ebay, but utilize auction houses every now and then. The biggest bottleneck I face is submitting cards to PSA (a third party grading company), a card might have a 2-4 month turnaround time. To successfully "flip" you need to balance some of these purchases with shorter flips. In 2019, I ended with a final profit of $9,262.28 – a tad bit short of my goal. In 2020, my goal is $20,000 (fitting). Using my margins from 2019, I would need to sell around $85k in cards.
You can find the previous installment here
PERSONAL UPDATE
First, I hope everyone is doing well and staying sane. It has been an absolutely wild three months for me, I found out I’m going to be an uncle, I got a cat and I decided I was going to propose to my girlfriend this weekend! I have still been keeping up with this project, the prices for baseball cards have absolutely skyrocketed over the past couple months, so there hasn’t been the same amount of buying as usual. I am going insane with working from home and trying to keep my head above water with everything, but flipping has been (at times) a nice escape. I am fortunate enough to be flipping something that I am passionate about, baseball cards, so I am able to enjoy this and see a lot of neat cards along the way.
In that spirit I have decided to begin keeping some cards for my personal collection as I go along. I read somewhere an interesting method of collecting, reducing your collection to 25 cards. I wanted to give it a shot with a bit of a twist, I want to keep a collection of 25 cards, but still make a profit along the way. So a couple ground rules I set for myself: * The collection is limited to vintage baseball cards (generally 1980’s and older). This was my first collecting passion and I’d like to try to keep to it.
So, without further ado, here are the first four cards in this project. The 1949 Berra came from the Yogi Berra lot I bought from SCP in January. The grades finally came back last week and I did very well on a few cards, so I felt that I deserved to spoil myself a bit. The 1949 Bowman set holds a special spot in my heart for me, my best flip ever was a group of 1949 Bowman cards I purchased for $300 which included a Jackie Robinson rookie that graded PSA 8! I sold it for over $10k. This Yogi Berra card is well centered, nice registration and a great mid-grade example of a baseball icon. I love it. The Ted Williams card and the Willie Mays both came from the December Heritage lot that I had purchased. PSA took FOREVER on this order. I was a little disappointed in the overall grades, but am confident I will turn a profit. The 1956 Topps Ted Williams is such a cool card and a staple in post-war collecting. The Mays I always liked – it’s a little beat up, but the centering is near perfect and the color looks sharp. Finally, I nabbed the 1969 Yaz. This was mostly done because I love the set. 1969 Topps was the last set to feature Mickey Mantle, something that I think goes underappreciated. The set design has always been pretty crisp, it has a couple great rookies and great all-star rookie cards. I’m a fan. Anyways! None of these cards are permanent, I can sell them at any time, but I’d imagine they will be in the collection a while.
Purchased
What Sold
PSA Update
Here is a link to the Google Doc with the status of all of my PSA cards. The spreadsheet also includes a summary of where the project is.
PSA is still extremely backlogged. For this project, I have 276 items with them. Luckily I was able to get quite a few cards back from them recently! As I previously mentioned, I received back the Yogi Berra cards I sent them in January and the Heritage cards I sent in December. Overall I am happy enough with the grades. I think they were fair on the Berra cards and they were rough on the Heritage cards (they were separate orders). I already listed or consigned these cards, so I will have updates next month on these.
Below is an updated summary:
For items purchased in 2019 (denoted with a “*”), the “cost” column represents the ending 2019 inventory valuation. For items purchased in 2020, the cost column is the cost. In the Google Sheet I included an in-depth P&L with full results and 2019 details.
Item Cost* Sold Fees Inventory^ Profit
1936 Goudey Lot (8) 50.00 56.50 (8.48) - (1.98)
Hank Aaron "Odd-Ball" Collection 150.00 777.29 (116.59) - 510.70
(16) Pre-WWII card lot w/ Cobb 1,300.00 1,708.52 (256.28) - 152.24
(23) Sandy Koufax 1950's and 1960's lot 250.00 299.50 (44.93) - 4.57
1977-1979 Topps Baseball Rack & Cello Packs (6) 250.00 380.00 (57.00) - 73.00
1957 Swift Meats Game Complete Set (18) 800.00 680.00 (102.00) (222.00)
(36) 1950s-2000s Multi-Sports Collection 500.00 1,528.51 (229.28) - 799.23
1933-1989 Wax Pack Wrapper Hoard (650+) 400.00 1,918.01 (287.70) - 1,230.31
1941-2004 Multi-Sport Group (33) 800.00 2,859.83 (428.97) 100.00 1,730.86
1912 B18 Blanket Find (100) 1,270.80 1,136.24 (170.44) 500.00 195.00
1962-63 Parkhurst Hockey Lot (45+) 500.00 287.26 (43.09) 400.00 144.17
1953 to 1969 Mickey Mantle Group (16) 1,000.00 2,747.85 (412.18) 150.00 1,485.67
1956-1959 Baseball Star Collection (48) 1,130.00 322.04 (48.31) 900.00 43.73
1961-1969 Baseball Star Collection (61) 804.95 257.78 (38.67) 600.00 14.16
1948-1965 Yogi Berra Collection (26) 1,400.00 399.50 (59.93) 1,050.00 (10.43)
Lot of (4) Signed Perez-Steele Postcards 676.59 - 676.59 -
1950's-1980's Football Wrapper Lot (42) 920.00 1,944.23 (291.63) 732.60
1953 Topps Partial Set (208) 1,472.00 2,855.13 (428.27) 100.00 1,054.86
1953-55 Dormand Postcard Set (47/52) 685.00 804.85 (120.73) 250.00 249.12
1959 & 1960 Venezuela Topps Lot (34) 216.00 58.66 (8.80) 200.00 33.86
1959 Topps Baseball High Grade Set 1,557.30 1,132.80 (169.92) 1,000.00 405.58
1970 Topps Super Proofs Lot (12) 405.41 493.75 (74.06) 200.00 214.28
1887 Allen & Ginter Boxing Lot (14) 403.40 403.40 -
1954 Topps Starter Set (119/250) 662.22 707.50 (106.13) 500.00 439.16
1947 Bond Bread Jackie Robinson Lot (6) 2,220.00 2,125.00 (318.75) 1,480.00 1,066.25
1934 R310 Butterfinger Ruth & Gehrig Lot (2) 720.00 720.00 -
1959 Topps Baseball Near Set (571/572) 3,620.00 3,620.00 -
1973 Topps Complete Set 2,512.40 6,347.41 (952.11) 600.00 3,482.90
1961 Topps PSA Graded Set 5,791.60 11,445.51 (1,716.83) 100.00 4,037.08
2013 Bowman Chrome Judge Black Wave Auto 1,940.00 1,940.00 -
1961-1982 Signed Card Lot (19) 1,364.40 1,120.00 (168.00) 800.00 387.60
35,772.07 44,393.67 (6,659.05) 16,289.99 18,252.54
*-denotes inventory purchased in 2019 valued at 2019 y/e figures. ^ -inventory on hand is valued at a conservative estimate of fair market value for remaining items. `-grading fees are expensed when the card is sent to PSA, fees are not paid until PSA has completed the order. Fees that are expensed, but not paid are sitting in Accounts Payable below.
2020 Grading Fees`: $2,944.79
Current On Hand
Cash: $5,588.15
Inventory See the Google sheet
ALSO! If anyone is interested in what the financials for this project would look like, see below. With 2019 officially in the book, I moved the final 2019 financial statement over for a year-over-year comparison:
As of 8/25/2020 2020 YTD 2019 Final
Cash $5,588.15 $1,680.15
Accounts Receivable $6,743.43 $-
Inventory^ 16,289.99 $10,605.75
Accounts Payable` ($2,886.54) ($1,858.62)
Retained Earnings ($9,262.28) $-
Initial Capital ($1,165.00) ($1,165.00)
Revenue ($44,393.67) ($40,163.15)
Cost of Goods Sold $19,482.08 $22,582.96
Fees (15% of Rev.) $6,659.05 $5,956.97
Grading Fees $2,944.79 $2,360.93
FORECAST
My goal is $20,000 profit for the year. Right now I’m $15,307.75 – PSA has dramatically slowed turnover, but I am definitely on pace to hit my goal, gross margins are up in 2020 compared to 2019 (56.1% vs. 43.8%) and net margins are also up (34.5% vs 23.1%). Sales more than doubled since the last installment and with orders finally coming back from PSA, I should continue to see steady sales.
I look forward to continuing to update everyone on this. Hope you enjoy as much as I do.
Jason
submitted by MachiavellianFuck to Entrepreneur [link] [comments]

How to not get ruined with Options - Part 3b of 4 - Advanced Strategies

Post 1: Basics: CALL, PUT, exercise, ITM, ATM, OTM
Post 2: Basics: Buying and Selling, the greeks
Post 3a: Simple Strategies
Post 3b: Advanced Strategies
Post 4a: Example of trades (short puts, covered calls, and verticals)
Post 4b: Example of trades (calendars and hedges)
---
In the previous post 3a, I explained simple strategies like cash covered put, rolling, selling covered calls, and bullish and bearish spreads (also called verticals).
Now let’s do some more advanced strategies, they can be quite interesting.
First, let’s quickly introduce the concept of a leg in options. It simply describes a specific combination of expiration / strike / call or put, said differently it groups the same options contract together. A long call or put is a single leg, whether you have 1 contract or 20, it has one kind of contract. A cash covered put, or a covered call have also a single leg. A vertical has 2 legs, one for the short strike, one for the long strike. It used to be that the trading fees were different depending on how many legs you had in your position, like a fixed price per leg plus the number of contracts, or $15 for exercise or assignment per leg regardless of how many contracts. In the past couple of years, the trading fees dropped quite a bit, so it does not seem to be happening anymore, but some brokers may still do that.
Calendars
A calendar is a 2 leg position. Both legs have the same strike, but they have different expiration dates. The closest expiration is a short position, the farthest position is a long position. It can be constructed with both calls and puts, and will have roughly the same cost either way. But if your strike is far from ATM, you should pick the variant that is OTM to avoid assignment on your short position.
Here is how a calendar looks like:
SELL -1 ABC 100 17 JUL 20 17.5 CALL @ 1.00
BUY +1 ABC 100 17 AUG 20 17.5 CALL @ 1.50
2 legs, both calls, strike of $17.50, you are shorting the July 17 contract, and long the August 20. Because Aug 20 is farther, it costs more than the July 17 contract. Total cost of that position is $50 per contract (($1.50 - $1.00) * 100 shares). This is your maximum risk. Despite having one short position, your long position has the same strike, and will be worth always more. Both values will move in tandem. This will be the case for both calls and puts. If your short position becomes somehow assigned because it is deep ITM, your long position will protect you, with a bit more extrinsic value.
Why would you take this position? As time passes, the short position will lose theta much faster than your long position. At the first expiration date (the one from your short position), if that’s OTM, then that short position expires worthless, and you are left with just a long position with extrinsic that now you can sell. If the share price and volatility stays the same, the short leg will go from $1.00 to $0, the long leg will go from $1.50 to $1.00. You paid $50 per position, you got $100, i.e. 100% profit in a month.
This position is positive theta and positive vega. You will benefit if the volatility increases (both legs will have their extrinsic values increase). However, if the volatility crashes, you may not make money, or even lose some. The long leg could drop from $1.50 to $0.50. You paid $50, you got $50. No gain. Worse, this position works best when the share is around the strike you picked. If the share moves up or down significantly, you’ll lose money (potentially your full $50). The profit curve looks like a gaussian curve, with the top at your strike price.
This position excels in two cases though:
And did you notice that when you rolled your short puts or covered calls from month to month with the same strike, your trade was the same as selling a calendar?
Talking about rolls, you can also buy a much longer-term long position (like 6 months away, or even a year), and roll your short position each month, bringing you an additional premium. If the market complies, you can pay your 6 months options in 2-3 iterations of your monthly short, and maximize your profit.
Diagonals
Diagonals are a mix of calendars and verticals. You have a short position in the front month, and a long position in the back month while having 2 different strikes.
Here is how a diagonal looks like:
SELL -1 ABC 100 17 JUL 20 15.0 CALL @ 1.00
BUY +1 ABC 100 17 AUG 20 17.5 CALL @ 1.10
Diagonals can be tricky to set up, and you will have to play with the numbers a bit. It allows you to have a calendar-like position (but not exactly the same, the peak and profit/risk profile are different) at a lower cost. Notice in the example that the short position has a strike of $15, and the long position has a strike of $17.50. We pick these in a way that the cost of the short position is roughly the same as the cost of the long position (long position is farther so higher cost, but we pick a higher strike to lower its overall cost). Total cost is $0.10 per leg ($1.10 - $1.10). With this position, you will lose up to $250 in the worst-case scenario if the price shoots up (as both extrinsic values will go towards $0, and you will be left to pay for the strike difference between $15 and $17.50 - The extrinsic value of the short call will drop much faster than the long call though, so a $250 loss may not happen in practice). If the price in the short expiration is a bit below $15, you may earn $50 to $100 with the leftover extrinsic value of the long call.
Diagonals are usually positive theta, and vega neutral. Unlike for calendars, in general, the volatility change will not make a big difference in the position.
Something to note: When you roll your short puts, covered calls, or even calendars with a different strike, you are actually selling a diagonal.
Synthetic Share
Now let’s talk about a quite simple position, a synthetic share.
Did you notice that if you buy a call, and sell a short, you will have the same profit/risk as if you bought the shares?
ABC is trading at $33.05, here is a 2 leg version of a share with options:
SELL -1 ABC 100 17 JUL 20 33.0 PUT @ 1.80
BUY +1 ABC 100 17 JUL 20 33.0 CALL @ 1.85
Cost of this position is around $0.05 per share. If the share is at $40 by expiration, you will earn $7 per share (minus $0.05). If the share is at $20 by expiration, you will lose $13 per share (plus $0.05). The exact same way as if you bought the share at $33.05. Magic.
And you can pick a strike of $20 instead, that you will pay $13.05 or so. Why? Because your call has $13.05 of intrinsic value, and you pay for that. The extrinsic value of the call is paid by the extrinsic value of the short put. Same if you pick a $40 strike, you will get a $6.95 credit.
The market is quite efficient, and this holds pretty much true on all strikes, and both calls and puts. They all get repriced automatically as the share price changes and the extrinsic of the call will match the extrinsic of the put at the same price. Think of it this way, if there were some inefficiencies, someone would automate the arbitrage to profit from it. And they do. The same way market makers arbitrage ETF price with its holdings so they are close in sync, they will arbitrage options.
Something important to note is that the cost of this synthetic share will take into account the cost of money (close to zero these days) and the dividend. So no free lunch by buying the share, and selling a synthetic share to pocket the dividend with no risk. :)
Given that formula that we just discovered:
1 share = 1 call - 1 put
You will notice that:
1 call = 1 share + 1 put
On the way up, this moves the same way as a call (due to the long share)
Lose theta like a call (due to the long put)
On the way down, it cannot lose more than the premium (due to the put offsetting the long share).
And this:
1 put = 1 call - 1 share
On the way down, this moves the same way as a put (due to the short share)
Lose theta like a put (due to the long call)
On the way up, it cannot lose more than the premium (with long call offsetting the short share)
So when you buy a call, the market makers will do the opposite side of the trade and will hedge in a way that they have no risk. The MM will buy / sell shares/calls/puts as needed, arbitrage constantly, earn money on the slippage between the bid and the ask, and each of their trades will partially cancel each other, so at the end of the day, they have little to no risk, nor even a position.
Now that we deconstructed a share with puts and calls, you could build a trade like this:
SELL -1 ABC 100 17 JUL 20 26.0 PUT @ 0.60
BUY +1 ABC 100 17 JUL 20 40.0 CALL @ 0.60
This is a bullish position. Theta and volatility neutral. You will lose money only if the share price drops below $26 by expiration, you will get assigned the share if you don’t sell before. It won’t move 1:1 with the share price though, but depending on the range you pick, you can still make some good profit with a lower risk. Note that despite the value being correlated with the share price before expiration, it won’t be 1:1 especially if the strike difference is big, and both are OTM.
So if you look at this synthetic share, you should realize by now that you don’t need cash to profit from a share price going up. As long as you are not assigned, no need for margin anymore. You can even do this trade with additional credit, at a greater risk for assignment though.
Collars
A collar is the opposite of a synthetic share:
BUY +1 ABC 100 17 JUL 20 26.0 PUT @ 0.60
SELL -1 ABC 100 17 JUL 20 40.0 CALL @ 0.60
It is used to protect against the drop of your existing shares (through the put), and the protection is paid by selling the covered calls against your shares. Years ago, company execs would build collars on their existing, or soon to be vested, stock options and RSUs so they would have a steady income with little risk. Nowadays, most companies’ policies prevent you from trading options with company shares.
Straddle and Strangle
A straddle is buying a call and a put at the same strike and expiration.
BUY +1 ABC 100 17 JUL 20 33.0 PUT @ 1.80
BUY +1 ABC 100 17 JUL 20 33.0 CALL @ 1.85
The idea is to profit from the movement in the share price. It is theta negative and vega positive (both due to the double long). The hope is that the stock will move faster in one direction than the theta loss. This position is regularly used by gamma scalpers and they will go in and out and adjust as the stock moves. The strike is usually around the ATM strike, to reduce the intrinsic value that you may waste as the stock moves.
A strangle is similar except that the strikes are not the same between the call and the put.
BUY +1 ABC 100 17 JUL 20 26.0 PUT @ 0.60
BUY +1 ABC 100 17 JUL 20 40.0 CALL @ 0.60
Because you use OTM strikes, the cost is cheaper, with less sensitivity to theta and vega. Depending on the strikes you pick, you can also have a bullish or bearish bias in your position.
If the volatility is very high, and you like to yolo, you can actually build a short straddle or strangle. You expect that the share price will not move more than the implied volatility and that the double theta will provide a good income. Because only one of the legs will be at risk if the share moved up or down at expiration, you improved your profit/risk profile because you got a double premium. However, you are also exposing yourself to two risks. Don’t do it, unless you are looking forward to being ruined. It will work until it won’t, and you will blow up your account.
Also, straddles and strangles have a special tax treatment, another reason to avoid them.
Iron Condors and Butterflies
I am going to add two last strategies, mostly for completeness.
I played with Iron Condors in the past. I used to say “I could get a 5% return pretty much every month”, and that is true (although with the current volatility that would be more like 7-10%). However, my next sentence was “But once in a while, I would lose most of it.” That part is also true. :)
It is built with 2 credit spreads, one bullish, one bearish, both OTM:
BUY +1 SPY 100 17 JUL 20 245 PUT
SELL -1 SPY 100 17 JUL 20 250 PUT
SELL -1 SPY 100 17 JUL 20 330 CALL
BUY +1 SPY 100 17 JUL 20 335 CALL
This position can be sold today for $0.32 per share with a $4.68 risk. As long as by expiration the share price is between $250 and $330, you would keep the premium, so around 7% (minus trade fees) for 3 weeks, so around 120% annualized profit. It is a bit more advantageous right now because the volatility is quite high, and we kind of have some bounds between the top and the bottom of these 6 last months, but you can still blow up the trade, and lose everything. If you did an Iron Condor in February for a March expiration, you would have incurred the maximum loss.
This can be a very stressful position, as the market goes up and down constantly. As it gets closer to the edges, the Iron Condor gets more expensive. Then what do you do? Do you buy it back? Do you hope it gets back to the middle? If it passes the edges, do you buy it back at 50% loss? But what if you close, and the market reverses suddenly and you would have been in the green if you kept the position? Very stressful. Avoid. :)
However, if the market goes up on and on, you may want to build a far OTM bearish spread (thinking that the market could revert to the mean). Then when the market drops back and continues dropping, again and again, you could build a far OTM bullish spread. You would end up with an iron condor with a much better profit/risk profile than if you built it on a given day. This situation happens rarely though. Remember, as indicated in part 3a, to close the side of the spread that reached 90+% profit. No need to keep some risk there for a few more dollars of profit.
A butterfly has a similar behavior as an Iron Condor but expects even less movement:
BUY +1 SPY 100 17 JUL 20 300 PUT
SELL -2 SPY 100 17 JUL 20 310 PUT
BUY +1 SPY 100 17 JUL 20 320 PUT
This can be built with PUT and CALL, it can be extremely profitable if the stock ends in your middle strike by expiration. But it won’t, and you will probably lose your money. :)
The names of Condor and Butterfly are after the shape of their profit curve for the long version that (very) loosely looks like a condor and a butterfly. :)
Again, they are fun for shit and giggles, but can be very stressful. Just don’t do it. You have been warned.
The next post will explain the various trades I made recently using these strategies, and taking advantage of this very volatile market.
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Post 1: Basics: CALL, PUT, exercise, ITM, ATM, OTM
Post 2: Basics: Buying and Selling, the greeks
Post 3a: Simple Strategies
Post 3b: Advanced Strategies
Post 4a: Example of trades (short puts, covered calls, and verticals)
Post 4b: Example of trades (calendars and hedges)
submitted by _WhatchaDoin_ to investing [link] [comments]

Ranking all 32 NFL teams in tiers pre-2020 season


https://preview.redd.it/it6vqxvxzci51.jpg?width=900&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d5ba4c7f80a1439c4283f4b30e3514629fcf504b

Now that we have passed the opt-out deadline and are only about three weeks away from the Chiefs and Texans kicking off the 2020 NFL season, I wanted to put together my pre-season power rankings and put all 32 teams in separate tiers, to give you an idea of where I see them at this point.
When putting together this list, I considered the talent on the roster, coaching staff and what will be a more important factor coming into this season than it has been in previous – the continuity as a franchise, since the COVID situation has limited the amount of preparation and ability to build chemistry as a team. That will be especially tough for new head coaches and inexperienced teams.
With that being said, this is how I would group them:

Super Bowl contenders:

This group of four represents what I think are the four elite teams in the NFL. They all feature complete rosters, excellent coaching and continuity as a franchise. I think these are the franchises that will most likely square up against each other in the conference championship games on either side of the bracket.

1. Kansas City Chiefs
We have heard this many times over the course of the offseason – the reigning Super Bowl champs bring back 20 of 22 starters (actually 19 now) on offense and defense combined. They have the best player in the league, the most dangerous receiving corp, above-average O-line play and a still improving defense, that just added some much-needed speed at the second level, which will allow DC Steve Spagnuolo to even more versatile. So at this point I can not have anybody unseat them. I think Clyde Edwards-Helaire (LSU) will be a star in that offense, they get a couple of guys back that missed their playoff run and there are plenty of young, developing players on that roster. What general manager Brett Veach has done this offseason in terms of securing Patrick Mahomes for the next decade and still opening up cap room to also sign their best defensive player in Chris Jones is amazing to me. My only two concerns for Kansas City at this point are a lack of depth in the secondary and the fact they will have to go on the road when they face the four best teams on their schedule – Baltimore, Buffalo, Tampa Bay and New Orleans, which has me favoring the second team on my list for the number one seed in the AFC and which this year means having one more game in the playoffs on their road to another Super Bowl for Andy Reid’s troops.

2. Baltimore Ravens
Right behind the Chiefs, as the biggest competitor for the AFC is Baltimore. They were the best team in the regular season from this past year, but the Titans handed them only their third loss of the season in the Divisional Round at home. While they did lose what to me is a first-ballot Hall of Fame guard in Marshal Yanda, outside of that the Ravens to me have an even better roster. The reigning MVP Lamar Jackson is only entering his third season in the league, the Ravens just added a top prospect in J.K. Dobbins (Ohio State) to a backfield that set a league-record in rushing yards and some of these young receivers will continue to develop. On defense, they addressed the two areas that needed some help, when they brought in Calais Campbell to boost their pass-rush and two top-six linebackers on my board in the draft (Patrick Queen & Malik Harrison). They may not have as many superstar names as some other teams, but without a full offseason to prepare for it, that Greg Roman offense could be even tougher to stop if Marquise Brown becomes a more dependable deep threat (now fully healthy) and I love how multiple Wink Martindale is with his defense, combining the different pressure looks to go along with more versatile pieces up front and one of the elite secondaries in the game. You combine that with a rising young special teams coordinator in Chris Horton and a great motivator and in-game decision-maker in John Harbaugh – I just can’t find a lot of L’s on their schedule.

3. San Francisco 49ers
Obviously the Super Bowl hangover will be brought up a lot of times with the loser of that contest, but unlike a lot of these teams coming off the big game – yet similar to the actual winners in the Chiefs – John Lynch did a great job re-tooling for the few losses they did have and didn’t overspend on some of their talented guys. Kyle Shanahan to me is the best offensive play-caller and game-designer in football, with a diverse rushing attack and the type of personnel to match it, while Jimmy G, despite some issues, is coming off his first 16-game season in his career. Defensively, they are losing what I thought was their best player in DeForest Buckner, but they did replace him with a top ten prospect in Javon Kinlaw (South Carolina) and Fred Warner is an emerging superstar. Their Seattle-based scheme under Robert Salah may not be very complex, but the Niners have a ferocious pass-rush, fast-flowing linebackers and a great safety tandem to be very sound in their execution. The Deebo Samuel injury is definitely a concern for me and if he doesn’t get back a few weeks into the season, I might drop San Fran a spot or two, plus I don’t love what they have at that second cornerback spot, but as for now I see the recipe that made me predict them winning the NFC West ahead of 2019 and what allowed them to be up double-digits in the fourth quarter of the Super Bowl.

4. New Orleans Saints
One of the themes this offseason for me has been how loaded this Saints roster is and that they just need to win this year. This is the final season with Drew Brees at the helm, they are already in a horrible place with the cap – before that even goes down in 2021 – and to be honest, a lot of their key contributors are getting pretty old now. While I have seen a significant drop-off in the arm-strength of Brees, other than that I don’t see any offense with this Sean Payton-led offense – the front-five is elite, Alvin Kamara should be back to 100 percent as a dynamic dual-threat back and they finally found a number two receiver in Emmanuel Sanders. When healthy, that defensive line is a dominant unit, I think third-round pick Zack Baun (Wisconsin) gives that linebacker group some versatility and they have a lot of experience in the secondary, including a guy I thought would be a future star on the outside in Marshon Lattimore. Before anything else, they need to take care of divisional-rival Tampa Bay – which is a very tough challenge already – but if they can do that, they are fairly in the hunt for the NFC’s top seed. There’s a lot of pressure on this group because of the cap situation, their all-time great QB having his “Last Dance” and brutal playoff losses in recent years, but they have all it takes to finally break through all the way.

Playoff contenders:

This second tier consists of eight teams that to me have only or two holes on their roster, while their coaching gives them an advantage over the majority of teams in the league and they bring back most of their pieces from a year or at least improved in those areas. I expect all but one of these squads to make the playoffs in 2020, as long as they don’t suffer significant injuries along the way.

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Number five in the entire league seems pretty high for a team that finished below .500 last season, but this is not just about Tom Brady coming in, but rather the roster Tampa Bay has built around him. To me Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are the top receiver duo in the league, the Bucs arguably have the best tight-end room in the league and the offensive line only got better with superhuman Tristan Wirfs (Iowa) playing one of those spots on the right side. I have talked about this a lot over the offseason, looking at the match between Bruce Arians’ vertical-based passing attack and what Brady is used to, in terms of spreading the field and getting the ball out of his hands quickly. My bet is they go to a bit of hybrid and figure things out. Maybe more importantly, I don’t think people realize what they have put together on defense. Last season the Bucs finished number one against the run, they forced the fifth-most turnovers (28) and tied for sixth with yards per play (5.1) in the league. Todd Bowles is excellent defensive mind, who now enters his second season with as much talent as he has had since his Arizona days. Jameis turned it over 35 times last year (12 more than any other player in the league), while Tom didn’t even crack double-digits once again, and he immediately improves their situational football awareness and overall execution. This is a very dangerous squad.

6. Dallas Cowboys
When you talk about some of the most talented rosters in the league, the Dallas Cowboys come to mind right away – especially on the offensive side of the ball. Dak Prescott now has one of the premiere receiver trios with the selection of Ceedee Lamb (Oklahoma) in the draft, still probably a top-five offensive line and Zeke looking to re-establish himself as a top-tier back, after looking a step slow for most of last season. Defensively they are getting back Leighton Vander Esch, whose energy they desperately missed for stretches last season, and they have a very deep rotation at the defensive line (even though nobody knows what we’ll get from a couple of guys that were out of the league), while Mike Nolan will change things up a little more and get his guys into the face of opposing receivers. We have yet to see how much Mike McCarthy will want to have say in the offensive play-calling, but I like that they retained a young and creative OC in Kellen Moore, and as far as in-game control and CEO duties go, I certainly believe McCarthy is an upgrade. There are some questions with the secondary after the loss of Byron Jones and losing Travis Frederick to retirement hurts, but I think those are things that can be overcome. Something that I think should not be overlooked is the signing of former Rams kicker Greg Zuerlein and his special teams coordinator John Fassel, after converting only 75 percent of their field goal attempts last season (6th-lowest in the league) and missing a couple of crucial kicks.

7. Philadelphia Eagles
Right behind the Cowboys, I have their division rivals from Philadelphia. I think the Eagles actually have a better quarterback, the best defensive player among the two teams in Fletcher Cox and a more experienced secondary. However, with Brandon Brooks out for the season and maybe the worst group of linebackers in the NFL, I could not put this group ahead of Dallas, even though they have come up victorious against them in the big games recently. Last year Carson Wentz carried a group of skill-position players from the practice squad and a banged-up O-line to a division title. This upcoming season he will go from already wasn’t an overly dynamic receiving crew to a group of track stars, most notably with first-round pick Jalen Reagor (TCU) and a hopefully healthy DeSean Jackson, plus Miles Sanders I think is ready to emerge as a star back for Philly. The defense did lose some long-time stalwarts like Malcolm Jenkins and Nigel Bradham, but I loved the addition of Javon Hargreave in the middle to free up the other guys to attack upfield and with Darius Slay as their new CB1, not only does that move everybody one spot lower on the depth chart, but it also finally makes more sense for Jim Schwartz to be as aggressive with those zero-blitzes, since he has the guys to cover. Those two newcomers also fit perfectly when matching up against Dallas, because of an improvement interior run defense and having a guy who can match up with Amari Cooper, after the other guys got toasted for the most part.

8. Buffalo Bills
For the first time in about twenty years, a team not named the Patriots will enter a season as favorites in the AFC East – and it’s actually not that close for me. Buffalo made a switch last season offensively to more 11 personnel and quick-tempo with Brian Daboll moving to the booth. This offseason they finally got the big-armed Josh Allen a dependable deep threat in Stefon Diggs, who averaged 12.0 yards per target last season (second-highest in the league), which – similar to what I just talked about with the corners in Philadelphia – moves everybody else down one spot in the food chain. And I love what they do defensively, with Sean McDermott and Leslie Frazier’s game-plan specific zone pattern coverages, with a versatile secondary to execute those, to go with a deep D-line and two super-rangy linebackers. Even outside the Diggs trade, Buffalo has made some sneaky-good deals since losing that Wildcard game at Houston in such heart-breaking fashion. Whether that is Mario Addison as double-digit sack guy in four straight years, added depth on the O-line or a really solid draft class to complement what they already had. I don’t want to crown them at this point, but to me they are the favorites for the AFC’s number three seed as for right now, since I think the South doesn’t have that clear front-runner to win the majority of their divisional games.

9. Seattle Seahawks
I would have probably had the Hawks as the final team of this group or right at the top of the next one a couple of weeks ago, but after acquiring Jamal Adams, I think they have re-established themselves as that second team in the NFC West, since I had them very close with Arizona originally, I did not love what they did in the first two days of the draft (somewhat of a trend with them), they lost their second-best defensive player at that point in Jadeveon Clowney, I’m not sure if they upgraded on the offensive line and we don’t even if know if Quinton Dunbar will be suspended at this point. With that being said, Seattle has finished above .500 every single year with Russell Wilson under center and while I’m not a fan of their conservative approach offensively, where they don’t allow Russ to throw the ball on first downs and push the tempo a little at times, they are one of the most effective rushing teams and they have two lethal weapons to catch those trademark rainbow balls from the Seahawks QB. Defensively there are still some questions about the edge rush and at second corner spot, but Pete Carroll at least has what he wants most in a team at those positions – competition – and you already saw them go to more two-high looks in coverage than we are used to, telling me they utilize Jamal’s versatile skill-set more than what that strong safety mostly does in that system.

10. Green Bay Packers
The whole Aaron Rodgers-Jordan Love drama has been looming large over the offseason and that has brought us some interesting discussions, but let’s not allow this to take away from the fact Green Bay just had a first-round bye in the playoffs and made it to the NFC title game. While they were 8-1 in one-score games and should regress more towards the mean in terms of the success rate in those close games, the North is still wide open and they have a few things going for themselves – they have the best quarterback in the division, the best offensive line, the most versatile and effective pass rush and a lot of young talent in the secondary. The first-round selection of a future signal-caller aside, I wasn’t too fond of what they did in the draft. Even though I liked Cincinnati’s Josiah Deguara and can see what they want to do with him as H-back/move guy in this offense, I thought they did not get Aaron Rodgers help in the receiving corp, which has no proven commodity outside of Davante Adams. Their defense got absolutely steamrolled in two games against the eventual conference champion 49ers, but I hope to see Rashan Gary develop in his second season and I think Christian Kirksey was a very under-the-radar signing as a run-stopping linebacker. I think schematically with Matt LaFleur’s offense based on what they did under Sean McVay and Mike Pettine being very creative himself they are one of the better coaching staffs in the NFC, but I would like to see them open up the offense more for Rodgers and break tendencies more often with their coverage calls.

11. Pittsburgh Steelers
Another very dangerous squad for me is the Steelers. I have talked many times about how bad the Steelers quarterback situations was last season, as both Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges finished near the bottom in air yards per attempt, percentage of throws beyond the marker and many others. We have only seen Big Ben throw in some short clips on the internet, but if he is just 70-80 percent of what he was in 2018, this team is bound for a playoff berth. There are some question marks with this group of skill-position players, but I expect Juju to bounce back in a major way with a capable QB and being healthy himself, I have already picked Diontae Johnson as a breakout candidate for this season and I like the diversity of this group of backs. Pittsburgh’s defense was already elite last year, finishing top five in both yards and points allowed, tied for first in yards per play (4.7), the most takeaways (38) and sacks (54). If former Raven Chris Wormley can replace Javon Hargreave as a two-down run-stopper at least and rookie Antoine Brooks Jr. (Maryland) can fill a very specific role as their second sub-package linebacker in place of Mark Barron, I think they will one of the scariest units in the NFL once again. So the best all-around defense for my money and an offense who I would say has top ten potential at the very least is a tough match-up. Maybe not quite battling with the Ravens for the North, but the top Wildcard spot for sure.

12. Indianapolis Colts
If there is one team in the AFC that could go from finishing sub-.500 to making it all the way to the conference championship game, the Colts would be my pick. I thought Philip Rivers had a really rough 2019 campaign, in which his arm looked rather weak and his decision-making hurt the Chargers on multiple occasions, but he will play behind by far the best offensive line he has ever had and they will run the heck out of the ball. Indy already had a pretty good back in Marlon Mack, but Wisconsin superstar Jonathan Taylor, who they selected in the second round, will be one of the front-runners for Offensive Rookie of the Year if given the chances in combination with what I believe is the best front-five in the entire league, plus their other second-rounder Michael Pittman Jr. (USC) will be that Vincent Jackson/Mike Williams type target for Rivers. More importantly, with the trade for a top 50 player in the league in DeForest Buckner, this entire Colts D immediately takes a step forward, since he is a perfect fit as that 3-technique in their front and help them disrupt plays at a much higher rate, to go with range in zone coverage behind that, including the “Maniac” Darius Leonard chasing people down. I’m a big fan of Frank Reich and the coaching staff he is has put together, in terms of in-game decision-making, offensive gameplans and just the intensity his team plays him.

Fringe playoff teams:

This middle tier is made up from all those teams who I expect to be at .500 or above, firmly in contention for a Wildcard spot at least. They can be some areas of concern, but overall they have the roster ready to compete with the big dogs and/or feature above-average coaching. With a couple of these there is a change at quarterback and head coach respectively, but they have enough around those to overcome that.

13. Tennessee Titans
This definitely seems a little low for a team that is coming off an AFC Championship game appearance, but people seem to forget the Titans were 8-7 ahead of week 17 and if it wasn’t for the Steelers losing their final three games, this group wouldn’t have even been in position to lock down the six seed. Things were also made a lot easier by their division rival Texans, who sat most of their starters after beating Tennessee two weeks prior. So as impressive as their playoff run was, you have to think of what happened before that and put it into perspective a little. With one more playoff spot in each conference, their chances of making it to the tournament should be at least equally as good, but I believe the Colts are the favorites to win the South and for me the Steelers are the favorites for the fifth seed. With all that being said, there is plenty to like about this team still – they can pound you with the Derrick Henry and the run game, Ryan Tannehill at least gives them the threat of pulling the ball and going deep off play-action, they have some young weapons catching the ball and defensively they are very versatile in how they set up gameplans. I also like the mind-set Mike Vrabel installs in these guys and I was impressed with what OC Arthur Smith did in 2019. If there are two spots that could decide if this group is fighting for a division title or that final playoff berth, it will be their rookie right tackle Isaiah Wilson (Georgia) and recently signed edge rusher Vic Beasley.

14. Cleveland Browns
While I don’t see them competing for the AFC North – just because of how loaded the Ravens are – the Browns are pretty clearly the most talented team that is considered to be third in their division. In terms of their group of starting skill-position players at least, they are near the top of the NFL, the O-line to me already just made my top ten ranking with room to move up, if healthy they are at least in the conversation for that with the D-line as well, with a Defensive Player of the Year candidate in Myles Garrett, and I like how they have assembled their secondary. Now, they have some unproven guys at the linebacker level and Cleveland’s potential is largely dependent on which Baker Mayfield we will get. With Kevin Stefanski coming and installing an offense that will be built on the zone run game and bootlegs off that, where his quarterback is put on the move, I could see much more efficient play and more comfort in that system. Something that really jumped out to me on tape was how many times Baker seemed to not be “on the same page” with his receivers, expecting routes to break off differently and unfortunate drops in certain situations. Even though the preparation for the season does look a lot different and QB & WRs haven’t been able to spend too much time together, I expect this to improve and more suitable roles for those pass-catchers overall. And if they are ahead in more games, that pass rush will be a problem.

15. Arizona Cardinals
There are certainly still some issues here, but the Cardinals are probably the most exciting young team in all of the NFL. Kyler Murray was a one-man show last season and is due for a big jump, with DeAndre Hopkins being added to a receiving corp that severely lacked dependable weapons, to go with some other youngsters fully healthy, Kenyan Drake looked like a different player once he came over from Miami and the O-line should at least be marginally better. Defensively they transitioned a little up front, with big gap-pluggers on the line and Isaiah Simmons being that ultra-rangy player on the second level, who can run guys down on the edges, if those ball-carriers forced to bounce outside, plus they have maybe the most underappreciated edge rusher over the last four years in Chandler Jones. I don’t think they are very deep in the secondary, but Budda Baker is an absolute baller, Jalen Thompson emerged late last season and I already predicted Byron Murphy would have a breakout second season. With Kliff Kingsbury and Vance Joseph, Arizona has creative play-calling on both sides of the ball and they now have the personnel to execute at the needed level as well. Like I mentioned, I was ready to have the Cardinals at least go toe-to-toe with Seattle for a playoff spot, but the addition of Jamal Adams has shifted the balance again to some degree. And if you just go based off my rankings, two NFC Wildcard spots already go to teams from five to seven.

16. Denver Broncos
A team that has been getting a lot of love this offseason is the Broncos. They have pretty much all the pieces that you usually see with those rising squads – a promising second-year quarterback with a lot of weapons surrounding him, a ferocious defensive front and having shown signs late last season. My belief in them has taken a bit of a dump unfortunately since I thought they did well to improve the offensive line, with Garrett Bolles on the left end being the only weak-spot, but now that Ja’Wuan James won’t be available at right tackle for the second straight year (injury last season and now opting out), their duo of OTs is a concern for me. Defensively you have to love what they have in the front seven, with Von Miller and now again Bradley Chubb coming off the edges, Jurrell Casey added to the interior to go with Shelby Harris and Alexander Johnson being an under-the-radar standout at linebacker. I’ve always been a big fan of Justin Simmons, but that second corner spot is still up in the air. I like Vic Fangio and that coaching staff they have put together in Denver, with Pat Shurmur providing a QB-friendly offense, the game’s best O-line coach in Mike Munchak and most of the people that have helped Fangio put out elite defenses at multiple stops before. So the Broncos are still the most dangerous opponent of the Chiefs in the AFC West, but now I’m not sure if they can add some drama over the fourth quarter of the season.

17. Minnesota Vikings
At the same time, a team that has been a little overhyped to me this offseason is Minnesota. While I don’t love how the Packers have operated since February, what have the Vikings done to really improve? They traded away the best deep threat in the league last season in Stefon Diggs, stalwarts on the D-line in Everson Griffen and Linval Joseph are now gone, their entire group of corners has combined for less than 1500 career snaps and their offensive coordinator is now in Cleveland. I’m intrigued by the combination of Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson, who could be pretty interchangeable in their roles and I like their 12 and 21 personnel groupings, but they lack depth at the receiver position. And the defense will be relying on several inexperienced pieces to step in. I mean their three starting corners from last year are off the team now. So I don’t really get how most people all of a sudden put them ahead of the Packers. With that being said, I like the offensive scheme and always thought Gary Kubiak was a huge factor in their success on the ground at least. On defense there are certainly question marks – especially in the secondary – but Minnesota could easily have a top five player at their respective position at all three levels, with Danielle Hunter, Eric Kendricks and Anthony Harris, plus they still have some promising young guys like Ifeadi Odenigbo, Mike Hughes and a deep rookie class. Their only true shade nose Michael Pierce opting out hurts though.

18. New England Patriots
This offseason must have been a rollercoaster for Patriots fans. First, Tom Brady leaves and everybody goes crazy. Then people start getting onto the Jarrett Stidham hype train and talk about how good the rest of this team still is. Out of nowhere they sign Cam Newton for the veteran minimum basically and they are back in the conversation for the top teams in the AFC all of sudden. And now, they lead the league in players opting out of the season, with key defensive pieces like Dont’a Hightower and Patrick Chung, to go with a couple of role players on offense at least. So now they are right at the bottom of these fringe playoff teams for me, because purely based on the roster, they are not even in the top 20 league-wide, but they still have maybe the greatest defensive mind in NFL history in Bill Belichick and one of the best offensive play-callers right now in Josh McDaniels. Obviously a lot of this will come down to what version of Cam Newton we will get and even if he is and can stay totally healthy. Not only is New England the most adaptable team in terms of how they can adjust to personnel and how flexible they are with their game-plans, but Cam is a great fit in that offense, where he can spread the field and make decisions based on defenses adjusting. The one area that took the biggest bump – outside of quarterback I’m guessing – is the offensive line, because they lost a legendary position coach in Dante Scarnecchia and their probable starter at right tackle in Marcus Cannon. While the Pats do have some young players, who can replace part of the losses, they were already more in plan for the pieces that left before there was any virus outbreak.

Around .500:

This broad group of seven teams represents all those franchises who will be dancing around .500 mark in the win-loss column. A couple of teams have the potential to win nine or ten games, while others could see those numbers on the wrong side of the column as well. There are obvious question marks in certain areas, even though they might feature top-tier players and/or coaches.


19. Houston Texans
It’s kind of tough to put a team here that has won its division the last two years, but I think the Texans are pretty clearly number three in the South now. I love Deshaun Watson and I think he has fairly established himself as a top five quarterback in the NFL, but Bill O’Brien just took away an elite wide receiver in DeAndre Hopkins and replaced him with an injury-prone Brandin Cooks to go with another always banged up Will Fuller and a declining Randall Cobb, to go with a David Johnson in the backfield, who was unrecognizable last season. I think the O-line is improving, but outside of Laremy Tunsil maybe, they don’t have anybody other than Deshaun who is clearly above-average in their role. And defensively they finished in the bottom five in yards allowed and tied with Cincinnati (who picked first overall in the draft) for an NFL-high 6.1 yards allowed per play. Hopefully having J.J. Watt back for a full season should help, I like the selection of Ross Blacklock (TCU) on the inside and there are some talented young corners on this roster, who could be better much in 2020. I would not be surprised if they are that .500 team at heart and their quarterback carried them to a couple of wins that they weren’t supposed to get – which we have seen him do many times before – but it’s more likely to me that they are fighting for one of the two bottom Wildcard spots.

20. Atlanta Falcons
Very rarely do you have a team that was among the worst over the first half of the season and among the best over the second half. The Falcons started out 2019 with a 1-7 record, but would go on to win six of the final eight games. Their defense was absolutely atrocious early on last season, with no pass-rush impacting the opposing quarterback and several miscues in coverage. With Raheem Morris taking over the defensive play-calling, they showed a lot of improvement already and there are signs that trend will continue. While there are some questions about the back-end and if they can get consistent production from their rush outside the top two guys, I think Dante Fowler is an upgrade over Vic Beasley, I like Marlon Davidson (Auburn) as a guy with inside-out flexibility on sub-packages and Keanu Neal is back healthy, as that Kam Chancellor-type, who can be that extra defender in the box in their system and punish receivers when catching the ball over the middle or in the flats. Offensively I believe this is still a team that can move the ball – they just have to start doing so earlier in games. While the top NFL receiver duo is in their own division with the guys in Tampa Bay, Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley could easily be that next one. They lost a very productive tight-end in Austin Hooper, but I believe Hayden Hurst can replace at least 80 percent of that production, and while we have no idea what we get from Todd Gurley and his knees at this point, last year the Falcons had one of the least effective per-touch backs in Devonta Freeman. Plus, the O-line should take a step forward with former first-round pick Chris Lindstrom returning from injury.

21. Las Vegas Raiders
To me the Raiders are still in transition, not only moving to Las Vegas, but also in terms of roster construction and the culture Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock are trying to establish. Outside of Tyrell Williams, that entire group of receivers was overhauled, they have a lot of young pieces on the defensive line and the secondary, plus they will have at least two new starters on the second level of their defense. By far the biggest thing they have going for them is the offensive line and second-year back Josh Jacobs running behind it. When I did my top ten offensive lines in the NFL a couple of weeks ago, I had the Silver & Black at number five, and Jacobs was already a top 100 player in the league for me, with how physical and elusive a runner as he is. I could easily see the Raiders finish near the top in terms of ground production, and I also like the young guys they brought in around that, with Henry Ruggs III (Alabama) keeping the defense honest with his speed, Bryan Edwards (South Carolina) as a physical receiver, who will get hands after the catch, and Lynn Bowden Jr. (Kentucky) as that chess-piece potentially, that you can use in a multitude of way. My bigger question here is if Derek Carr is willing to push the ball down the field. Defensively I like the rotation they have on the interior D-line and the two linebackers they brought in via free agency, most notably Corey Littleton. There are still some questions about how snaps will be split between their corner group, but I’m excited to see a full season of Jonathan Abram hopefully. These guys have some attitude and an energetic head coach.

22. Los Angeles Rams
Oh, how far we have come. Just one-and-a-half years ago the Rams were officially 20 spots higher basically, when they lost the Super Bowl to New England. Ahead of last season, I predicted them to miss the playoffs and while they made a bit of a run at it late, that’s what ended up happening. Now I see them as the fourth team in their own division – even though that says more about the competition they face rather than them. I still believe in Sean McVay and his ability to win on paper with play-design and game-planning, but Jared Goff has turned out to be an average quarterback, they don’t have a prime Todd Gurley setting the table anymore and the offensive line had some major issues, for large stretches of last season, especially in the run game. I was very high on Cam Akers, who they selected in the second round out of Florida State, but he will obviously be a rookie with shortened preparation, rather than an Offensive Player of the Year like Gurley was for them. Defensively, they have two elite players in Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey and I like some of the other guys in their roles, but overall the high-end talent beyond the two biggest names isn’t overly impressive. Leonard Floyd might be their top edge rusher and he has always been more of a Robin, they have no proven commodity as stand-up linebacker and I have yet to see if Brandon Staley can actually be an upgrade over Wade Phillips as their defensive coordinator.

23. Detroit Lions
While I was going back and forth with putting the Lions third or fourth in the NFC North, I recently said they are among the top two teams that could go from worst to first in their division and I would not be surprised if they were in the hunt for a Wildcard spot in the last couple of weeks of the season. His second year in a system under Darrell Bevell – where he wasn’t just going in shotgun 40 times a game and asked to make magic happen – Matthew Stafford looked like an MVP candidate as long as he was healthy in 2019. That duo of Kerryon Johnson and my top-ranked running back in the draft D’Andre Swift (Georgia) could be one of the most dynamic ones in the league, the receiving corp is highly underrated and I like those rookies competing for the two guard spots. Defensively, they seem to finally look like what Matt Patricia wanted, when he came over from New England, in terms being versatile with their fronts and having guys who can take on receivers in man-coverage. With that being said, there is also a good chance that the Patricia experiment could go to shambles, if some of the veterans get turned off by his style of coaching without having established that winning culture, and this team has simply been dealing with too many injuries to key players. I don’t think there is much of a gap between the Lions and Vikings for example, but Detroit has not shown the stability of some other organizations.

24. Chicago Bears
A franchise that I don’t really hear anybody talk about – unless it’s their quarterback competition – is that team from the Windy City. I understand that the Bears aren’t really sexy because they lack those superstars on offense that people will recognize, but I’m higher on some of the guys they do have on that side of the ball and on defense they could be much closer to 2018, when they led the league in points allowed and turnovers forced, rather than being just inside the top in most categories last season. A guy I already predicted to break out for Chicago this upcoming season with a bigger workload is running back David Montgomery, to go with Anthony Miller as a gadget player and developing young pass-catcher and one of the more underappreciated receivers out there in Allen Robinson. Defensively, I thought the biggest issue last season was Akiem Hicks missing double-digit games, as a table-setter with his ability to disrupt plays from the interior, and Leonard Floyd didn’t provide much on the opposite side of Khalil Mack, who they upgrade from with Robert Quinn, who just had his best season since the Rams were still in St. Louis. Now, I don’t love what they have at that second safety spot to complement Eddie Jackson, someone will have to fill that second corner spot – even though I’m a fan of second-round pick Jaylon Johnson (Utah) – and nose tackle Eddie Goldman opting out is a huge loss. If the quarterback position can just complement the rushing attack and the defense plays up to their potential, this group could be competing for second in the North, but Foles or Trubisky could still hold them back.

https://preview.redd.it/aep6uj385di51.png?width=1060&format=png&auto=webp&s=07674898e4de7d73699c065907983e69612c56a4


The final tier is in the comments!!

If you enjoyed this breakdown, I would really appreciate if you could visit the original piece - https://halilsrealfootballtalk.com/2020/08/18/ranking-all-32-nfl-teams-in-tiers-pre-season/
You can also listen to my analysis on the Youtube channel - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zz7WE0epZw8
submitted by hallach_halil to nfl [link] [comments]

Detroit Lions Offseason Review

My first time doing this - thanks for reading!
Lions logo link just so that the thumbnail to this post isn't Logan Stenberg's website
I'll start first with the draft picks.
Entered the draft with 3, 35, 67, 85, 109, 149, 166, 182, 235
Draft Day Trades
Trade Partner Given Away Received
Indianapolis 85, 149, 182 75, 197
Las Vegas 109 121, 172
1st Round
With the 3rd Overall Pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, the Detroit Lions Select Jeff Okudah, Cornerback, Ohio State University.
Okudah here is the obvious choice. He is not quite a Jalen Ramsey caliber prospect, but close, and hopefully he will fill the gaping hole left by Darius Slay’s regression and departure. Okudah is a technician, he has incredible work ethic, an Energizer Bunny-like drive to get better, and reportedly has a thirst for learning that included him showing up at his defensive coordinator’s house on an off day to watch film. The best way I have seen it put – he is a disciple of his position, completely devoted to becoming better. Not all disciples become masters, but all masters were once disciples. I think Okudah was the obvious choice here, and I’m just glad we didn’t take Derrick Brown this high. Grade: A+
2nd Round
With the 35th Overall Pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, the Detroit Lions select D’Andre Swift, Running Back, University of Georgia.
This came as no surprise to me. I was watching the draft via Pat McAfee’s stream, and when he erroneously reported the Dolphins selected Swift with their final 1st Rounder, I was heartbroken. Swift fills the biggest offensive need for the Lions – a stud running back capable of handling bellcow snap counts. I’m not sold on Kerryon Johnson. I’ve not given up on him either. He has spurts of brilliance, followed by mediocrity, and capped off by injury. He has missed 14 of 32 games. At worst, Kerryon was overdrafted by a wide margin. At best, the lighter workload will allow him to stay healthy and thrive in a run-first offense. Swift can be an immediate contributor on offense, he can help keep Kerryon healthy, and if Kerryon goes down – Swift can handle being RB1 without issue. The only thing I would rather have seen in this situation is AJ Epenesa, but I knew it wasn’t going to happen with the Patriots’ scheme. Grade: A-
3rd Round
With the 67th Overall Pick of the 2020 NFL Draft, the Detroit Lions select Julian Okwara, Defensive End, University of Notre Dame.
I’m in love with this pick. Okwara was considered a first round talent after his 2018 season. He fell to the third because of an injury, and if he can get healed up properly then the Lions got an absolute steal here. It is also cool to see because Julian’s brother Romeo is currently a Lion. I was surprised to see the coverage-creates-sacks New Engla- I mean, Detroit front office spend a third on a pass rusher, but I’m choosing to not question a good thing. The risk of “he’s not been the same since the injury” is absolutely worth the possible reward of a dominant DE here. Grade: A+
With the 75th Overall Pick of the 2020 NFL Draft, the Detroit Lions select Jonah Jackson, Offensive Guard, Ohio State University.
I like, but don’t love, this pick. I’m not sure Jackson is ready to start, but the Lions moved up to get him. Still, it’s the third round. I think he can develop into a starter, he lacks as a pass protector, and I think he will be the weak link on the O-Line if he is forced into a starting role as a rookie. I would be higher on this pick if we didn’t spend extra draft capital moving up. Grade: B
4th Round
With the 121st Overall Pick of the 2020 NFL Draft, the Detroit Lions select Logan Stenberg, Offensive Guard, University of Kentucky.
OHHHH YEAHHHHH! THE KOOLAID MAN’S FILTHY BROTHER, MR. NASTY IS IN TOWN, AND HE’S READY TO RRRRRRRUMMMMBLE.
Stenberg is a Kool-Aid machine, for sure. His nickname is Mr. Nasty and you can even buy his Mr. Nasty merch. Logan if you read this I will gladly accept a sponsorship I myself will be buying a custom Lions jersey with his number and make the name on the back “Mr. Nasty.” He is a monster in the run blocking game, he jumps out and flat out assaults defenders like they owe him money. But, as with any 4th rounder, there is a downside to him – he lacks the agile footwork required of an NFL O-Lineman, which will make him a penalty risk unless he can fix that. He is also unproven as a pass protector, since Kentucky just doesn’t really throw the ball much. This is another high-upside guy who has the tools to develop into a great starter, the biggest drawback I see, and the reason I’m down on this pick, is that the front office essentially drafted what I would consider “project” players back-to-back for the exact same position. If the immediate previous pick wasn’t spent on Jonah Jackson, I’d have given this a much higher grade. Grade: C+
5th Round
With the 166th Overall Pick of the 2020 NFL Draft, the Detroit Lions select Quintez Cephus, Wide Receiver, University of Wisconsin-Madison.
The Lions have two receivers on their roster that it’s time to start thinking about replacing – Marvin Jones Jr., who still has another 2-3 years of production left in him, and Danny Amendola, who is ancient by receiver standards. Cephus was used as a “big slot” role at Wisconsin. I’m not a big believer in the big slot guy being a wide receiver, if the game’s matchup dictates that a big man will work better in the slot then I much prefer putting a tight end in that role. That said, Okudah and many other Big 10 DBs said Cephus is the most difficult receiver to cover. His combine and pro day numbers don’t really match up, so I don’t know what to think there. My personal hope is that Cephus can develop into a receiver similar to Jones, though the consensus around Lions fans is that he will continue his slot role to become similar to Anquan Boldin. My fear is that his combine speed will be accurate, and the skills that made him difficult to cover in college won’t translate to the NFL. I can’t confidently judge this pick, but I will say he has all the downside and not nearly as much upside as the last three picks. Depending on his usage and development, his floor is Geronimo Allison and his ceiling is AJ Green. Grade: B
With the 172nd Overall Pick of the 2020 NFL Draft, the Detroit Lions select Jason Huntley, Running Back, New Mexico State University.
I’ve written about how I think Jason Huntley should be the chosen one to develop into a Slot WR. I believe his floor is JD McKissic and his ceiling is Randall Cobb. His build is much more that of a receiver, I honestly don’t think his body will be durable enough to handle full-time RB play in the NFL. If he is developed as a receiver, I am a huge fan of this pick. However, drafting Huntley cost the Lions a shot at Braden Mann. If Huntley is only used to replace Jamal Agnew as a returner and only contributes to the offense from deep on the depth chart, I would so much rather have drafted a generational talent at Punter. Grade: B
I will now take a moment to say I would have gladly given up the 6th and 7th rounders to trade up for Mann. Or skipped the trade-up for Jackson to keep #182. I’m not high enough on either of these next two guys to lose out on Mann.
6th Round
With the 197th Overall Pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, the Detroit Lions select John Penisini, Defensive Tackle, University of Utah.
The Lions were looking to improve their run defense, especially after losing Snacks Harrison. Penisini won’t do much for that, but he will be a half-decent backup nose tackle. He’s a 6th rounder for a reason – he is a backup at best, and has almost no pass rushing ability versus NFL caliber offensive lines. I’m okay with this pick this late in the draft, but I honestly believe he should’ve been a UDFA. Grade: D
7th Round
With the 235th Overall Pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, the Detroit Lions select Jashon Cornell, Defensive Tackle, Ohio State University.
After being disappointed by the 6th round, I am pleased with this 7th round pick. Jashon Cornell was graded by PFF as just slightly behind Derrick Brown. I’m not entirely sure why he fell to the 7th, but I assume it’s because he is 23 years old and leaves Ohio State as a 5th year senior. Cornell can be a rotational guy right away, and might be able to blossom into a starter on the D line. If not, it’s a 7th round pick. Grade: A+
Even though we got a lot of value in #235, still would’ve traded both Penisini and Cornell for Mann.
Remainder of post continued in comments. Links below
Coaching Changes and game-by-game schedule prediction
Free Agency and pre-draft day trades
Training Camp Battles
Excel Spreadsheet Download of my personal "armchair GM" 53 man roster (NOTE: This is not the roster I think the Lions will actually go with. Just a fun little experiment of how I'd build the team, especially given the new practice squad rules)
submitted by atlantis737 to nfl [link] [comments]

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