8 Best Crypto Margin Trading Exchanges Compared (2020)
8 Best Crypto Margin Trading Exchanges Compared (2020)
Margin and Clearing on Exchanges
Spot Trading vs. Margin Trading: What Should You Choose
Margin Trading on Centralized vs. Decentralized Exchanges
Cryptocurrency Exchange vs. Margin Trading – AlgoTrader
Margin trade vs exchange?
I see that you only gain 1/2 of the difference on short or long. For 1 btc going long on margin (0.5*($670-$640)) = $15. If you do an exchange you will get close to $30 profit with just some exchange fees. So exchange is more profitable?
Most secured exchanges for DASH and IOTA margin trading vs USD or EUR
I use to trade on Bitfinex, but lately I read bad stories where they ask you to prove the origin of the coins which sounds like a pain in the ass which I don't want to go through ever so I'm looking for another exchange to trade on margin.
Fee Comparison Trading Bitcoin on CFD sites vs. Spot-Margin Exchanges vs. Futures Exchanges
When you want to speculate on changes in bitcoin price, there's three main types of places you can achieve this on:
CFD sites - where the 'broker' takes the other side of your trade and behaves more like a bookmaker which manages their risk exposure than an exchange. They often state they have "no fees", but the bid-ask spread and leverage fees can add up.
Spot-margin exchanges - where you are trading with other customers and the exchange takes a fee on trades. The spread varies based on market liquidity and margin varies based on exchange policy and market rates too. But since you are borrowing money on spot, someone has to finance it and you pay interest on the leverage as well, whether it's the exchange or another customer who lends you the funds on margin. You also will pay roughly 0.1-0.3% nominally on trade fees.
Futures exchanges -- similar to spot exchanges but the margin within the contracts is completely free and provided within the contracts itself, not requiring borrowing of any funds to engage in leverage. Whether you are at 2x or 100x leverage, you do not pay any interest/financing charges at all. You and your counterparty in an open position are providing the leverage, and the exchange provides the mechanism to handle people who fall short of margin requirements. Trade fees range from -0.1% to 0.075% per trade.
Bid-Ask Spread (Max Leverage, as % of Initial Margin)
Daily Charge (Max Leverage, as % of Initial Margin)
0.01-0.08% (Varies, market based)
0.1% (Exchange-provided, not market-based)
0.01-0.05% (Varies, Market based)
0.02-0.25% (Depends on contract/liquidity)
0.05-0.8% (Depends on contract/liquidity)
TL;DR Liquid bitcoin futures exchanges offer the lowest cost choice to do leveraged bitcoin trading, and have multiple fee discount advantages over Spot Margin exchanges and especially CFD sites. However, socialised losses ("DPE") are the downside: they are a form of hidden fee themselves against profitable traders who bear the load of system losses. Edit: Fixed SimpleFX max leverage for BTC to 10x not 25x. Also included a warning about socialised losses for trading bitcoin futures at high leverage.
The importance of crosshair placement, why you're doing it wrong, and how to fix it.
Valorant and the importance of crosshair placement.
Introduction Hey guys, I'm Twix, and I'm back with another informative post, this time concerning the aspect of crosshair placement. Through this post I will be discussing the importance of crosshair placement within the tac shooter genre, going over the most common mistakes I see people make in my experience as a coach, and offering structured routines to remedy the majority of these mistakes. If you haven't read through any of my posts before ( I wouldn't they're too long ) I am an FPS player which mainly played CS:GO competitively, with around 7k hours and multiple level 10 faceit accounts and LAN wins in the past 5 years, who transitioned towards the end of my CS:GO days into being an FPS coach, I mainly worked with people trying to gain a competitive edge in CS, but later moved to coaching Apex players, and following the closed beta release of Valorant, I have been coaching Valorant players for the past few months, with unanimously positive feedback. If you haven't read my first post which is a comprehensive general guide for players looking to improve in Valorant, I highly recommend you look at it here before continuing on to this post. In relation to other qualifications / achievements, I have hit top 30 as hitscan DPS in Overwatch, maintained top 500 ranking in Apex ( PC ) for a couple of seasons, and hold numerous 1% rankings on various Kovaak's FPS Aim Trainer maps. My main goal in creating these posts is to contribute to the Valorant community by sharing my knowledge gained over 10k collective hours of FPS experience ( mainly Tactical fps ) and hopefully help the people reading my posts improve and gain that competitive edge they need to progress into their desired ranking. For those of you interested in learning more about my coaching service, or looking for a community of Valorant players looking to improve, I will link my Discord server at the end of this post.
Why is crosshair placement important?
If I was asked about the importance of consistent crosshair placement in games such as PUBG, Apex, Overwatch, Fortnite, etc. I would probably answer by saying that while it's beneficial to maintain solid crosshair placement, it's by no means the most important aspect in relation to performing well in those games, in tactical shooters however, it's a whole different story. Tactical shooters are low TTK ( time to kill ) games, and for the most part, a single bullet to the head is enough to eliminate a player, this means that in contrast to AFPS games, or games like Overwatch or Apex, which have a much higher TTK, first shot accuracy is of extreme importance in Valorant, inevitably leading to the fact that crosshair placement is also extremely important. In a game with higher TTK, even if your first shot accuracy isn't perfect in an aim duel, you can win the fight if you land more shots on the opposing player over x amount of time that you trade with them, while in Valorant, whoever needs to make the least amount of adjustment to their crosshair when engaging in a 1v1 scenario wins the exchange. It doesn't matter if your raw aim is out of this world, even if you have the most precise flicks known to the FPS community, if your crosshair placement is sub-optimal, you will lose vs. someone with consistent crosshair placement, this is simply due to the fact that all they need to do, is click once your head moves into their crosshair, often without even needing to move their mouse. Crosshair placement may very well be the most important aspect in relation to gunplay and generally the mechanical aspect of tac shooters such as CS:GO or Valorant, as it's the deciding factor in the majority of aim duels.
A large amount of players tend to underestimate the importance of crosshair placement in Valorant, and especially the underlying complexity of maintaining consistency in that context. People think that all you need to do to maintain solid crosshair placement is aim high enough to hit headshots, meaning that the only factor that affects crosshair placement is vertical positioning, others still stick to making their main source of information on game improvement being players who make statements as un-informative and vague as "just click heads", my main goal is to break down and explain the multiple factors that go into proper crosshair placement. Lets start with the basics: Vertical Positioning: As mentioned above, one of the elements which ties into crosshair placement is vertical positioning. this is the set distance that you need to position your crosshair at in relation to the ground to be able to align your crosshair's horizontal axis with player model head-level. The good thing about vertical positioning, is that you can get accustomed to the head level that the player models have in Valorant quite rapidly, as the hitbox sizes in this game are identical, meaning you can always use the ground as a point of reference to determine where the enemy player's head would be. In Valorant, the head level always remains a set distance from the ground In order to train your general ability to place your crosshair at the correct height, try to make a habit out of constantly reminding yourself to place your crosshair at head level, regardless of where you are or what you're doing on the map. What I mean by this, is that even if there isn't any imminent threat of enemy players peeking you, try to keep constantly keep your crosshair at head level, the more time you spend doing this, the faster it will become a habit and become something you do subconsciously, without having to actively focus on the action. This habit allows you to build muscle-memory during otherwise useless down-time, another way to do this is to track your teammate's heads with your crosshair while rotating, leaving spawn etc. While vertical positioning is something that people get used to relatively easily, I have come across a recurring issue among the VODs of people I coach, and that is that people generally struggle with adapting the vertical component of their crosshair's position to varying points of elevation. Here's an image to help you visualize a scenario where this could be an issue: Peeking C Long, Positions marked: Cubby ( right ), Platform ( left ), back-site ( back ) In the image above I am peeking into C back-site from C long on the map 'Haven', I have highlighted three different positions / angles where an enemy could potentially peak from in an in-game reenactment of this scenario, Platform, Cubby, and back-site. What you'll notice is that these positions all have different points of elevation, meaning that while using the ground as reference will allow me to maintain my crosshair at head-level if someone peeks my position from ground level on C site, in order to clear cubby and platform, I would need to adjust my crosshair accordingly, using their lower levels as a reference for where the head-level position would be in those angles. Unfortunately, if you are struggling with this due to the fact that you aren't familiar with the map layout yet, the only thing that will remedy your situation is more time spent playing the game, if however, your issue stems from a mechanical inability, meaning that your mouse control isn't good enough to allow you to make such adjustments comfortably, the routine provided later in the guide may help you get past that issue. Horizontal Positioning: Just as with vertical positioning, horizontal positioning is pretty self-explanatory in terms of it's function. Knowing at what height to position your crosshair at in relation to the environment is far easier to do than knowing where to position it on a horizontal axis, the reasoning behind this is that with vertical placement you will always have the ground or lower level of the object the opponent is standing on as a point of reference which allows you to instantly know at what height head-level is. When focusing on the horizontal aspect of crosshair placement, there isn't a set point of reference at all times; Sometimes you need to hold wide angles, sometimes you need to move along with the object you're playing against, and sometimes you need to pre-aim to swing effectively, all this variability makes it much harder for a newer player to grasp crosshair placement and horizontal positioning is just as crucial as vertical positioning if not even more important. A very common mistake which I see a lot of in the VODs I review as a coach, is newer players holding angles too tightly, meaning that they're playing in a position where they anticipate an enemy push and are waiting for the engagement, and their crosshair is a position where it's hugging the edge of the wall the enemy will peek from. Here is a visual representation of what I'm talking about: Example of incorrect horizontal placement In the image above, I'm holding an angle where if someone crosses moving parallel to the wall I'm looking at, I'll have under 50 ms to react, my crosshair is so close to the edge of the wall that I will need to click my LMB the milli-second I see the enemy. By holding this angle, chances are that by the time I click the enemy will have already crossed to the left of my crosshair resulting in a miss and most likely my death; It would take inhuman reaction times for anyone to hit a player while holding like this, especially if the enemy player is swinging. Instead, you should allow some distance from your crosshair to the edge of the angle you're holding, allowing yourself to spot the enemy's player model, and then time your click effectively. Here is a visual representation of correct crosshair placement while holding the same angle: Example of correct horizontal placement As you can see, in the image above I am allowing for some space between the wall and my crosshair, giving me a significantly longer time window to spot an enemy player and react. Holding an angle that's too "tight" would mean I need to make a larger adjustment to hit the enemy, and therefore I increase my margin of error due to vertical overshoot ( see below ). There are exceptions to the rule when it comes to the distance you need to hold at, if the angle you are holding only allows forward movement ( into your crosshair ) you can hold a narrow line of sight. If you are clearing an angle ( moving along it to check for enemies ) and you are the agressor, you can hold tight and move along with the wall / LOS to allow for a faster reaction if you spot an enemy during your movement. If you are the agressor and you want to swing into an angle that you believe / know an enemy is holding, it is sometimes optimal to pre-aim, meaning you position your crosshair in a way where without moving your mouse it will be aimed at the enemy's head once you swing out the angle. Vertical Offset: The final common issue I would like to bring up which ties into both crosshair placement and horizontal click-timing, is something I call "vertical offset" or "vertical overshoot", this is a player's inability to move his crosshair horizontally while maintaining the same vertical placement. Vertical offset is a big issue when it comes to switching angles or flicking horizontally, I have seen many scenarios where a player is holding an angle properly with their crosshair at a pixel-perfect vertical position in relation to head level, only to make a 30 degree turn to check a different angle and end up shooting at an enemy's chest and losing the duel. Usually, the larger the movement, the more the player's crosshair deviates vertically. Here is a depiction of what vertical offset / overshooting looks like in-game: Example of margin of error caused by vertical offset / overshooting In the image above the green dot is where the crosshair should end up in an ideal scenario while flicking from it's current position to the target dummy, while the green lines represent a theoretical margin of error for overshooting. Fortunately for people that face this issue, I have come up with multiple Kovaak's maps and firing range excercises to help combat it and largely reduce your margin of error when moving your crosshair / flicking horizontally.
Settings: What sensitivity / crosshair should I use?
This part of the post discusses a topic which is highly subjective, both the sensitivity you use and the crosshair you use are something preference-based that you should decide upon on your own, the reason I'm adding this section into the post is for players which are newer to the tac-shooter genre; There are a few guidelines that will help them narrow down the settings that work the best for them. First off, don't by any means copy your favorite pro's config, just because something works for a professional player that has probably spent well above 10,000 hours playing FPS games and decided upon their ideal sensitivity and crosshair within that massive period of time, doesn't mean that it's going to work for you, use whatever you're most comfortable with. Other than individual preference, and having gotten used to their sensitivity, the Pros you watch may be using gear which feels different at their sensitivity setting. A lighter mouse, faster mouse-pad, and faster feet can feel very different in terms of mouse movement, even if you're playing on the same sensitivity value on paper. In relation to grip-styles and what mice are ideal for each hand size, make sure to check out my first post in this sub before moving forward with this guide, as playing on hardware that caters to your individual preferences plays an important role in increasing your mechanical potential. Sensitivity: As I stated in the paragraph above, sensitivity is something quite subjective and while there's no general rule as to which single sens value is superior, Valorant and CS:GO professionals tend to stick to e-dpi or cm/360 much lower than professional players in other titles and FPS subgenres. Your e-dpi is your in-game sensitivity value multiplied by your mouse's DPI setting. The average e-dpi used by Valorant professionals is around 250 e-dpi, which would be a value of 0.625 in-game @ 400 DPI, or around 50 cm/360. Pro player & Streamer sensitivity settings (e-dpi) cm/360 is a universal format for sensitivity measurement, it's the amount of centimeters you need to move your mouse in order to perform a full rotation. This is the format adopted within aimer communities due to the simple fact that you asking someone "what sensitivity do you play on?" And them responding with "1.5 in CSGO" is pretty useless information as they could be playing at any DPI range, and you don't necessarily know what each CSGO sens corresponds to in relation to physical movement, or even movement in other games. "e-dpi" solves the issue of different DPI x Sens measurements within the same game, but the cm/360 format is easily transferable from title to title. The reason professional players in the tac shooter genre use lower sens on average, is due to the fact that in contrast with other FPS games, tac shooters don't require larger or extended movements, instead they require you to hold or clear angles while maintaining stable crosshair placement, the least adjustments you need to make to your crosshair's position on your screen, the better your "aim" will be. The majority of players I have coached report that it has been significantly easier for them to maintain consistent crosshair placement at lower sensitivities. For newer players that still haven't found a "main" sensitivity that they feel comfortable on, I would recommend for them to stick to the range of 200-300 e-dpi, while for more experienced players coming from CS or other similar games, I would recommend a similar range with a higher cap, at 200-400 e-dpi ( very few professional players play above 300 e-dpi ). Crosshair settings: This is something even more subjective and preference-based than sensitivity even, so what I will do in this section is simply post my own settings which I use for my in-game crosshair, and explain why I picked each value within the menu. Crosshair Settings So, lets break my crosshair down setting by settings:
Color: I use "Cyan" as it stands out quite well for me with my current color settings, any color that doesn't match your enemy outline color works perfectly fine here.
Inner Line Opacity: This setting basically determines how see through your crosshair will be, I like setting mine at "1" as It makes the crosshair stand out more.
Inner Line Thickness: I set this to "1" which is the lowest value, a lot of professional players like to use "2", I think setting the value to "1" makes it easier to align your crosshair with heads or with other objects in the environment, it is also less obstructive, so I highly recommend either this or "2" to newer players
Inner Line Offset: This setting determines how large the gap is in your crosshair, I like setting this to "1" as the gap is as small as possible without disappearing, larger gaps make it more difficult to determine where the exact center of your screen is, which can act as a hnderance in your first shot accuracy at longer range engagements.
Movement & Firing Error: These settings just turn your crosshair into a dynamic crosshair and make the gap widen significantly while moving or shooting respectively in order to give you a visual representation of how the innacuracy factor works. Useless and distracting, would highly suggest that you keep these both off unless you're very new and still don't understand how movement / spray accuracy works.
Outer Lines: Everything is off here, I don't think playing with outer lines provides any benefit whatsoever and it's an extra distraction.
Crosshair Placement Improvement Routine:
A large portion of improving your crosshair placement is based on simply playing the game more, crosshair placement is largely based on muscle memory, part of having good crosshair placement is simply based on having experience in-game allowing it to become a subconscious habit, and the rest is based on your ability to anticipate player model movement and learn to make horizontal movements without simultaneously your crosshair vertically. The routine I will provide is not only a great way to work on your crosshair placement, but also highly beneficial to the click-timing aspect of your aim, which is basically the only element of aiming required in Valorant, as good tracking is unecessary in such a low TTK game. If you are already training using a daily routine on Kovaak's ( as you should be ) you can just implement this into your daily scenarios. Kovaaks: ( These are all maps which require you to make horizontal movements without overshooting vertically, thus good aim training for those struggling with crosshair placement, see my other posts for a larger variety of Kovaaks maps )
1 wall 2 targets horizontal - 10 minutes ( focus on your flicks, work on hitting both targets in the same movement, not pausing in between )
Valorant Small flicks - 10 minutes ( Great routine as head level is that of Valorant, and vertical deviation will cause you to miss, forcing you to maintain head level as you play through it )
PatTarget Switch small - 10 minutes ( Works on your ability to swap from one target to another while maintaining head level crosshair placement, keep LMB held while playing, only go for heads )
Valorant doesn't currently offer it's own deathmatch servers, therefore the next best thing is practicing in CS:GO. HSDM is a headshot only modifier for community FFA servers in CS:GO. To access these maps go to "Community Server Browser" and simply type in "HSDM", any server with decent population will do ( preferably 128 tick ). Playing FFA on headshot only forces you to maintain head-level crosshair placement as body shots don't count. I advise going for taps rather than spraying, as it limits the RNG, also spraying in CS:GO isn't transferable to Valorant as a mechanic. Make it a challenge for yourself to maintain positive K/D while playing. Use the AK in rifle servers, and the USP-S in pistol servers.
Set the target dummy position to static, and practice your click timing by only going for the targets furthest to the left and furthest to the right interchangeably, do this for around 10 minutes.
Play Spike Rush and set it to hard. When set on "Hard" the AI will one shot you as soon as you peek if it has seen you, and one shot you after around half a second if you shift-peek it. Pretty decent warmup in relation to crosshair placement as you will die every single time if you aren't instantly headshotting the targets the moment you peek. Play this for another 10 minutes.
Link to my Discord server for further questions / coaching inquiries:
Not claiming to be an expert on anything. My opinion: Rey Rivera did not commit suicide, foul play was involved, and his note may be a code trying to implicate those who may be involved. I believe there is much more circumstantial and direct evidence that points towards a homicide rather than a suicide. I try to give credit where it is due and if I am repeating things that have already been posted, I apologize. Please, since it has already been discussed so much in many other posts, if you are going to insist on speculating about his mental state on this post too, include a diagnostic criteria for the condition/diagnosis you are claiming and evidence of how Rey fits each criteria. You cannot make conclusions on anyone's mental state simply based off reading a book, articles and Netflix. Either Stansberry’s crisis management team has people on Reddit, or a very large amount of people believe they became overnight experts in mental health. Neither of these will hold up in court. Unless you are a psychiatrist or psychologist, you are not qualified to make assumptions about his mental health that would be permissible as evidence in a court of law so let's leave that to them. I believe there were real reasons behind Rey’s paranoia, and I believe the note is code for the corruption he was dragged into. The note has been hypothesized to be a coded message or a tone reel for a movie, there is no evidence to prove it was or wasn't that, vs. being considered ramblings during a psychotic break as others have speculated (there is no direct evidence to support this). There is also no evidence to prove that it wasn’t planted there, considering he had two attempted break-ins at his house right before his death and the house was left vacant for hours after his death until Allison returned back to Baltimore. My opinion is that Rey wrote it as a coded message in the form of a tone reel since he was a writer and filmmaker first and I’ll state what I believe to be proof of this below. Facts :
He had 2 recent alarms triggered at his house the days before his death which could have been possible break-in attempts
Someone form the Stansberry & Associates building was the last person reported to talk to him before his death. He worked for a very shady company (some evidence at the bottom of this post), that placed a call to him around 6:30pm the night he went missing, causing him to run out of his house.
Both of the facts above warranted a better investigation by the Baltimore Police Department that did not happen. The last reported person to talk to a victim is often the first POI to investigative authorities. to him was someone that called him around 6:30 from the Stansberry and Associates building.
Stansberry and Associates either put a gag order on the company (and a recent memo released stating they didnt is a lie) OR all Stansberry and Agora employees were instructed to not talk to anyone about Rey’s death as proven and reported by law enforcement, many reporters, family members, and the author of the book An Unexplained Death when they received that answer while attempting to reach out to the company and to Porter.
Stansberry & Associates hired a Crisis management team for the firm 6 months ago after their cease and desist letter aimed at stopping the airing of the Netflix documentary regarding Rey's death did not work.
There were 0 witnesses that saw Rey enter or in the building previously known as the Belvedere that night, which law enforcement reported he frequented. You would have thought at least one employee or concierge for the condominium would have seen him come in if he did jump from there, considering it is part of their job to greet and provide assistance to those entering.
? looking to confirm: There were no signs of Rey's shirt being torn when his body was found.
The coroner also reported the cause of death as undetermined and could not conclude it was a suicide. We should start another post to discuss the autopsy results in detail.
The FBI report on the note states that overall themes and language are “consistent with someone who suffers from a delusional disorder” It describes delusional disorders, how they are relatively rare affecting 24-30 out of every 100,000 people and that the onset is relatively late with average age being 40-49. It does not appear that they looked into connections it had to any code, or that they knew what a tone reel was.
The report also states “BAU is unable to confirm the identity of the author of the letter without further analysis.” There is then a full page of “Investigative Suggestions" for the BPD to investigate: (There is also question as to what, if any, from that list of suggestions was actually investigated after the report.) * BAU suggests [redacted] several meetings/interviews. [full sentence redacted]. The purpose of these interviews to develop additional leads…[>2 lines redacted]. As mentioned by BPD, [redacted]. These interviews should take place in a non-threatening environment. [2 lines redacted] In an effort to generate further leads, investigators should carefully review [2 lines redacted]. Rivera’s family members (brothers, sisters, parents) should also be re-interviewed regarding his health. (per the Netflix documentary, we know the family does not believe he was suffering from mental delusions.) * BAU recommends [>3 lines redacted]. FBI Baltimore may be able to assist BPD…[>3 lines redacted].* BAU recommends determining [redacted].* BAU recommends requesting forensic testing [redacted]. BAU understands that [redacted] during the investigation [> 2 lines redacted]. BPD should also determine [redacted]. * BAU recommends requesting forensic analysis of the computer printer where the letter was found. [>3 lines redacted]. FBI Baltimore’s Computer Analysis Response Team can assist with the analysis of Rivera’s computer [>3 lines redacted]. * BAU offered to [redacted]. It is recommended that BPD provide BAU with [redacted]. * BAU recommends that BPD [>2lines redacted]. ------------- Things being used to defend this deteriorating mental health theory are:
his wife noticed him paranoid and stressed the weeks leading up to his death.
The note that he allegedly left - more details below at 2a
The FBI said it was NOT a suicide note, discusses it could be characteristic of someone with Bipolar Disorder BUT Rey did not exhibit these characteristics.
There is no evidence to prove the note was placed by him or that it wasn’t planted.
This note has as much evidence proving it was a code as it does that it was "rambling"
Some valid connections have already been made on this note by Reddit posters in the google doc by TrueCrime Pyrex and others
The only name repeated over and over again in the note is Porter’s name
Recent Researching of Freemasons
1a. paranoia - Rey had real reasons behind his paranoia. Rey Rivera was working for a shady financial firm and making millions of dollars. These firms are notorious for having connections to powerful underground criminals. He was hired by this firm to “clean up their image” and write the Rebound Report one year after the SEC had filed a complaint against Stansberry & Associates for giving false advice on stocks that later tanked. So, a filmmaker with no finance experience was hired to write about suggesting cheap stocks that were supposedly going to make a quick turnaround. People were angry and had lost millions of dollars after the SEC filing. There is an article about the exact details below. Additionally, Rey's friend who also worked for Agora - Hickling- had died just a couple months before Rey’s death allegedly in a car accident in Zambia. Rey had two tripped alarms in his house (suggesting attempted break-ins) in the nights leading up to his death. He had valid reasons to be paranoid. There were valid reasons for people to be after him, and there were valid reasons for him to be concerned and protective of his wife as many times these criminals will come after the person closest to them instead of the individual themself. 2a. The note- Many film creators have said the note looks not similar, but exactly like a tone reel. Also hypothesized are that it could have been a code for something or that it could have also been planted there, since there were 2 tripped alarms at his house. Many who have attempted to piece together the note from screenshots also point out that there are multiple versions of it, suggesting that if he did write it, it was written over a longer period of time than a day. In my opinion, all these theories have the same validity/amount of evidence as the delusional theory. Some theories and opinions on the note: many made by Reddit users under the google doc that TrueCrime Pyrex started (https://docs.google.com/document/d/1CUynVxK37ReWqJ2r3jyue0hUMh36GfiRAzYXG-Q8IE8/edit#)
“Along with myself, these players would be made 5 years younger by the council”
5 years before 2006 was 2001 and the devastating year the WTC was attacked (9/11). It was one of the world’s most active stock trading buildings; The SEC complaint against Agora for defrauding investors was in 2003.
A poster on the Google Docs note (lmk if you want your name mentioned here) stated:
Porter Stansberry works for Agora which is the newsletter company that provided the alibi for the 9/11 put options.
The treasurer of Agora was found dead (ruled suicide) in the woods behind his home. He was good friend with Buzzy Krongard, exec dir of the CIA on 9/11.
Porter got married on 9/11/04 and had his first child (induced) on 9/11/07.
" Again, well done to all who participated. I expect the council has invited all the players who gave their lives to this pursuit back so they may join us here: Thom Hickling a, Rayburn b, Batchelder c, Joan Tellini d, Stanley Kubrick.
All these people are deceased. Thom Hickling worked at Agora and allegedly died in a car crash in Zambia a couple of months before Rey’s Death. Thom Hickling had signs of trauma to the back of his lower head. Other connections made in the Google Doc.
In an Unexplained Death, Mikita Brottman writes:
"Some have suggested to me that Rey's death was connected to the death of a gentleman named Thom Hickling who worked at Agora. Rey had become especially close to Hickling, who was killed in a car accident while visiting his daughter in Africa. His death is often mentioned as a turning point for Rey, who apparently found it suspicious. Rey's mother told me that Rey and Hickling were good friends. "Rey liked him very much," she said. "He talked to me about him. He said he was a real person. Honest. And this guy died somewhere overseas- I don't remember where. All I remember is that it was a very weird situation in which he died And Rey got very concerned."
"To arrange for future transactions you should visit me at of any of the properties that I will resume control of: My primary residence which includes a beautiful piece of property in Northern Argentina , and I'm told, (has) biggest mansion in Buenos Aires. Well done, Porter. (Referring to Porter Stansberry)In Europe you can wait at the flat in Nice or in Madrid . Although if I'm in Spain I'll probably be at the (cadiz). In Asia you will be able to find me in Thailand. Another job well done, Porter." (Referring to Porter Stansberry)
Bill Bonner, founder of Agora, the umbrella company of Stansberry & Associates owns two chateaux in France and is a large landholder in Argentina, and Agora International has offices in Madrid and in Thailand.
Searching this book, Where in the World Should I invest: An Insider’s Guide to Making Money… the author says,” He’s been around much longer than me and has been investing in places like Thailand long before it showed up on any…the person who hired me to do what I do more than 20 years ago, Bill Bonner, is also a large landholder in Argentina”
Bill Bonner also wrote a book titled Financial Reckoning Day:Fallout
One line simply states: "Porter Stansberry, if he didn’t do it himself." I believe this to be a very important line. Porter’s name was also the only name repeated over and over in the note.
"Brothers and sisters, our land of attachments has seen many ideas become new innovations since my game began:
Digital music players (portables and otherwise)
Computer Operating Systems
Portable Data Assistants
Horizontal Drilling for (word) (word)
(Fracking?) gas to drill in shale In both versions
[----The are more listed (discrepancies in Netflix shot of note versus older versions of note) and then...] "The rights, patents *, and proceeds for all of (them) (should) have been transferred to me by now. I know that our friend, Porter Stansberry has (caused) a way for you to do so."
Whats listed above was a lot of up and coming technologies for the first decade of 2000. Rey was writing a financial newsletter recommending stocks that should make investors a large amount of money. I wonder if in him listing these there is an association with their parent companies for the above listed technologies, and their patents, profits, and possibly insider information/insider trading that had to do with the corruption going on within the company. This is a theory does anyone have any thoughts/know more about this stuff?
3a. Freemasons. The act alone of researching Freemasons does not indicate a psychotic state. In the book, An Unexplained Death, Mikita Brottman writes: "Stein learns from a Master Mason that Fred Bealefield, who was the chief of detectives during the Rivera case and later police commissioner, is also a Master Mason. This news does not surprise me. Many policemen are members of the Freemasons; it does not make either the police of the Freemasons especially sinister. I often invite Master Masons to speak to my classes about the history of their organization, which I have come to see as a benevolent fraternal charity with an archaic structure and hierarchy, not a malevolent force running the universe, or even the city. In other words, I think the Masonic angle is a red herring. I believe Rey's interest in the group was part of his research for something new he was writing." ---- Per those close to Rey, their theory is that has something to do with the Rebound Report, and the fact that the company had just come out of being fined 1.x millions dollars for misleading investors. (Also The Rebound Report may not have been accurate?) I believe looking into these reports would provide further information. Also mentioned, If Rey were to go meet someone at the condominium he allegedly jumped from, he would not have worn flip-flops and track pants. He was going to go see someone he knew. ---- Circumstantial and direct indicators of foul play/cover-up: - In An Unexplained Death, Mikita Brottman writes: 'An anonymous comment on an article about the case by Stephen Janis posted at the Baltimore Examiner website puts this theory in a nutshell. "Rey was a very inquisitive man, a truth-seeker. He had information that threatened something larger than himself and was murdered for it." ' 'Others have suggested that Rey's death may have been connected to developments in Nicaragua, where Agora owns a large stretch of coastline. Those who have studied the case often refer to "Nicaragua" in cryptic terms.'
does anyone know what this cryptic term is?
currently, one of The Oxford Club member options in the "Oxfordian Hotel Collection" is Rancho Santana in Rivas, Nicaragua.
Oxford Club was originally called The Royal Society of Lichtenstein which was promoting a business called Goldcor, which turned out to scam investors with their gold-extraction methods in Costa Rica. Goldcor President Brown was found with a bullet in his head in November 1991.
Options Hotline and 9/11: In the investigations following 9/11, the SEC determined that an unusual number of investors had purchased put options on American Airlines immediately prior to September 11, 2001. Further investigation found Agora'sOptions Hotlinenewsletter and its editor Steve Sarnoff as responsible for faxing some 2,000 subscribers the recommendation to buy put options on American Airlines on September 9, 2001.Sarnoff was investigated for insider trading with the SEC eventually concluding “all suspicious trades were checked out, and the SEC satisfied itself that the traders had no advance knowledge of 9/ll.”
The more I google this case, the more I see old articles and blog posts referencing Baltimore news sites or Stansberry’s website, only to click on these links and find that the pages are no longer available - why?
Even if you defend that Stansberry was simply trying to defend his shady activities, why have websites like CBS Baltimore, WBAL TV , and others remove their articles about Rey Rivera’s death?
Why was the main LE nvestigator removed from the case when he started suspecting murder?
Why didn’t police follow up on many suspected leads, as suggested in the final FBI report investigation into Rey’s letter?
Why are so many names and people listed in the FBI report as possible follow-ups for leads redacted from the report but Ray's family members and Allison listed ?
articles / blogposts with links that have since been deleted. One example: https://invanddis.proboards.com/thread/5923 where it discusses more about the cameras than what I have read anywhere else- it wasn't simply a malfunction:
cover-up: “the cameras malfunctioned”. An article since deleted but referenced in the linked blogpost states:
"Bizarre is also how Allison Rivera describe the obstacles she encountered trying to help police search for clues. Confident that her husband’s death was foul play, she hired a private detective who accompanied her to The Belvedere to review the video surveillance. But Allison soon discovered that the surveillance system malfunctioned on the day her husband disappeared. “Somebody put 'protect' on the day of the 15th that consumed about 85 percent of the hard drive,” she recalled learning. “Somebody hit 'protect' on the system; there is button on the key board in the concierge areas, and there is a computer in the back.” The timing of the erasure is troubling, Allison said.“If it was on May 1, that's an accident but if it's on May 15, that is a totally different story.”An employee of the former hotel who has knowledge of the camera system but asked to remain anonymous could not confirm Allison's allegations. The employee said that police had confiscated the hard drives." ------------------------------------------------------- Below here are a few news article links and old posts from disgruntled investors regarding the shady practices of Agora and possible motives for killing. Many article links have since been removed from the internet. Please bear in mind I am not citing below things as facts, although many have since proven to be. I find it interesting and possibly relevant to Rey Rivera's death
The complaint alleges that Frank Porter Stansberry, the company?s owner, sent an e-mail in 2002 that said investors could "Double Your Money" by investing in a company that was alleged to be on the verge of signing a contract to dismantle "nuclear warheads" for Russia. The newsletter offered the name of the company for$1,000, the complaint said. The complaint alleges that "the information was false." Karen Martinez, one of the SEC attorneys who filed the complaint against Stansberry, said **investors who paid for the tip are angry. "**Many investors testified in discovery that they lost substantial amounts of money based on the investment advice of the company," Martinez said. "Investors said they were very unhappy," she added.
From the desk of Porter Stansberry: When my best friend, Rey Rivera, disappeared last year, we had to find his car (and then his .... Porter Stansberry Baltimore, Maryland December 21, 2006 ... Porter Comments:'The Baltimore sheriff is after me…'-Porter Stansberry
Other Poster's comments:
And Porter Stansberry was by his very admission,a suspect in the murder of his own friend and employee Rey Rivera.The U.S.SEC itself has admitted that his and Agora Inc.'s CIA connected Agora Inc.'s Rebound Report that Mr.Rey Rivera was editor of before his mysterious death was a fraud and I know from personal experience that James Dale Davidson's,Porter Stansberry's and Agora Inc.'s illegal pumps and dumps were covered up and in fact removed from SEC litigation against Agora by corrupt Utah SEC attorneys Brent Baker and Karen Martinez - thus guaranteeing that Stansberry and Davidson would go free yet again after decades of gold,oil,real estate and myriad stock fraud scams against American investors,all of which sent and continue to send dollars out of the U.S.economy to offshore accounts of international criminals,albeit elite criminals.
On this page is also a letter by Tony Ryals to Alex Jones of all people (Alex Jones has some youtube videos with STansberry and Associates- look them up).
I found the letter interesting(included relevant parts only but you can read the whole thing at the above indy link) :
Dear Alex Jones,
If I ever had any doubts whatsoever about your corruption and cover up and disinformation propaganda re 9/11…your promotion of Agora Inc.'s stock fraudster and murder suspect,(in the case of his 'friend' Rey Rivera of Agora Inc Rebound Report fraud,etc.),has ended all that. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were also part of Agora Inc.'s fraud that helped send the housing market and government subsidized housing loans crashing as well.Also when it did ex SEC Chairman Christopher 'WMDS' Cox lied about Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac shares being 'naked shorted',a term that can be tracked back to Agora Inc.'s and National Taxpayers Union founder James Dale Davidson himself. Both Stansberry, Davidson and Agora scumbag Bill Bonner have a UK connection and their association with with the U.K.'s Lord or Lard William Rees-Mogg guarantees a Rothschild connection…I no longer have any doubt even an idiot such as yourself, with your far right women's rights denier Ron Paul connections, that you know you are in cahoots with the CIA because his and your pals at Agora Inc have CIA and George Tenet connections…Sincerely, Tony Ryals Corrupt SEC attorney Karen Martinez who along with SEC attorney Brent Baker removed all charges against Stansberry and James Dale Davidson regarding their illegal pumps and dumps of biotech penny stock frauds **Endovasc and Genemax in 2003 tries to blame or insinuate the probable murder of Rey Rivera was done by defrauded investors such as myself mno doubt.**And I myself suspect that Stansberry's and Lila Rajiva's invitation to me to visit his office in 2005 was either as a set up or to murder me as well .Shortly after removal of all charges against James Dale Davidson and Porter Stansberry regarding their promotion of worthless Endovasc and Genmax shares Brent Baker 'retired' from his SEC job and was rewarded or bribed by Patrick Byrne of Overstock.com and himself began to openly promote the lie that Overstock shares were like the other penny stocks a victim of 'naked shorting' or naked short selling by some unknown entity. Byrne even claimed it was a or the 'Sith Lord' ! Davidson's NAANSS or National Association Against Naked Short Selling' was disapeared from the internet in 2005 and replaced with NCANS or National Coalition Against Naked Shorting with a number of lieing websites claiming a huge amount of stock frauds were really victims of 'naked shorting' ! In 2008 even the ex SEC Chairman lied on the sec.goc website about Fannie Mae,Freddie Mac,AIG,UBS and even Goldman Sachs shares collpsed in value due to 'naked short selling' ! -Tony Ryals Missing Baltimore Man Getting National Attention - wjz.com23 May 2006 ... It's been a week since a Northeast Baltimore man was last seen, and police say there is still no sign of 32-year old Rey Rivera. http://www.wjz.com/topstories/Rey.Rivera.Missing.2.422531.html Suicide Or Murder? Evidence Reviewed - Baltimore, Maryland News ...BALTIMORE -- The mystery behind a Baltimore businessman who fell to his ... http://www.wbaltv.com/13334811/detail.html http://washingtonexaminer.com/local/man-found-dead-belvedere-worked-comp Man found dead at Belvedere worked at company that had SEC complaint By: Stephen Janis 06/01/06 2:00 AM Examiner Staff Writer Karen Martinez, one of the SEC attorneys who filed the complaint against Stansberry, said investors who paid for the tip are angry. "Many investors testified in discovery that they lost substantial amounts of money based on the investment advice of the company," Martinez said. "Investors said they were very unhappy," she added. An official speaking on behalf of Stansberry Associates said they had no comment on the SEC complaint. Martinez said Stansberry denied the allegations in court and that the case was pending, awaiting the judge?s decision, she said. Who killed Rey Rivera? | What's Inside Our Brains6 Feb 2010 ... suicide of Rey Rivera, whose body was found on a roof of the Belvedere building in Mt. Vernon in 2006. As I recall from the original ... http://www.whatsinsideourbrains.com/?p=292 LAND OF THE UNSOLVED - The last days of Rey Rivera10 Aug 2009 ... But the patch over the bituminous paving atop a second-floor office at The Belvedere hides a secret the widow of filmaker Rey Rivera thinks ... http://www.investigativevoice.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=:the-land-of-the-unsolved-the-last-days-of-rey-rivera&catid=25:the-project&Itemid=44 Working links: Baltimore Crime: Rey Rivera10 Aug 2009 ... can see Rey Rivera's 'friend' and employer Porter Stansberry invited me to visit Agora Inc. and Baltimore in 2005. ... http://www.baltimorecrime.blogspot.com/2009/08/rey-rivera.html “I briefly quote and provide link from Bill Bonner's Baltimore co-author Lila Rajiva herself who wrote an article about her employers' Goldcor connection and the strange 'suicide' of Goldcor President Richard Brown who was found with a bullet in his head in November 1991 as Goldcor began to unravel.” http://baltimore.indymedia.org/newswire/display/11382/index.php …link no longer works either http://neworleans.indymedia.org/news/2010/03/14797.phpDeath In Baltimore:Agora Inc.,Rey Rivera,Porter Stansberry,James Dale Davidson,Bill Bonner “This post has to do with the mysterious death of Agora Inc employee Rey Rivera in 2006 who was committing stock fraud for his own personal gain and more so for the profits of his bosses at Agora Inc that included his evil 'friend' of years past,Porter Stansberry, as well as Bill Bonner,James Dale Davidson and the evil Lord William Rees-Mogg of UK who founded or who have been behind Agora Inc stock fraud and money laundering operation for decades. .”
Due Diligence: Toromont Industries Ltd. - Building Together For An Exciting Future
Hi, This is my first attempt at writing a DD report. I hope it makes sense. Just a few cautionary words:
Grammar (and English in general) is not a skill of mine. There will be a few parts that you might have to decipher, good luck.
I tried not to provide too much commentary and stick to the facts. I know you are spending your valuable time reading this and you probably don't want to listen to some random guy on the internet pontificate.
For those of you who are easily offended/triggered, can't take a joke, or sarcasm isn't your taste, DO NOT click the spoilers.
Lastly, the following is just my findings, by no means is it a representation of all the information out there. It is just the baseline for me to have confidence in becoming an owner of the Company. Do your own due diligence or talk to a financial advisor to find what is best for you and your financial situation. Happy reading!
Over the last 5 years the stock price has more than doubled.
Toromont dominates market share over everything east of Manitoba in Canada.
Customer base is heavily diversified, giving the Company many opportunities to expand into multiple industries.
Dividend has increased for 31 consecutive years. It has been paid for 52 consecutive years
The management team is extremely knowledgeable and have a good track record
Toromont Industries Ltd. (TSE:TIH) provides specialized equipment in Canada and the United States. The Company operates two business segments: The Equipment Group and CIMCO. The Equipment Group supplies specialized mobile equipment and industrial engines for Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE:CAT). Customers for this business segment vary from infrastructure contractors, residential and commercial contractors, mining companies, forestry companies, pulp and paper producers, general contractors, utilities, municipalities, marine companies, waste handling companies, and agricultural enterprises. CIMCO offers design, engineering, fabrication, and installation of industrial and recreational refrigeration systems. The Company was founded in 1961 and operates out of Concord, Ontario. As at December 31, 2019, Toromont employed over 6,500 people in more than 150 locations across central/eastern Canada and the upper eastern United States. The primary objective of the Company is to build shareholder value through sustainable and profitable growth, supported by a strong financial foundation.
Description of the 2 Main Business Segments
The Equipment Group includes the following 6 business units:
Toromont CAT:one of the world’s largest Caterpillar dealerships which supplies, rents, and provides product support services for specialized mobile equipment and industrial engines
Battlefield Equipment Rentals:supplies and rents specialized mobile equipment as well as specialty supplies and tools.
Toromont Material Handling:supplies, rents, and provides product support services for material handling lift trucks
AgWest:an agricultural equipment and solutions dealer representing AGCO, CLAAS and other manufacturers’ products
SITECH:provides Trimble Inc (NASDAQ:TRMB technology products and services. Trimble is a SaaS company that provides positioning, modeling, connectivity, and data analytics software which enable customers to improve productivity, quality, safety, and sustainability. Target industries: land survey, construction, agriculture, transportation, telecommunications, asset tracking, mapping, railways, utilities, mobile resource management, and government.)
Toromont Energy:supplies, constructs, and operates high efficiency power plants up to 50 MW, using Caterpillar's leading power generation technologies. Toromont Energy operates plants that supply energy to hospitals, district energy systems, and industrial processes.
Performance in this segment mainly depends on the activity in several industries: road building and other infrastructure-related activities, mining, residential and commercial construction, power generation, aggregates, waste management, steel, forestry, and agriculture.
Revenues are driven by the sale, rental, and servicing of mobile equipment for Caterpillar and other manufacturers to the industries listed above.
In addition, Toromont is the MaK engine dealer for the Eastern seaboard of the United States, from Maine to Virginia.
MaK engine is a marine diesel engine manufactured by Caterpillar
CIMCO is a market leader in the design, engineering, fabrication, installation and after-sale support of refrigeration systems
Performance in this segment is dependent on the activity in several industries: beverage and food processing, cold storage, food distribution, mining, and recreational ice rinks.
CIMCO has manufacturing facilities in Canada and the United States and sells its solutions globally.
CIMCO services the ice rinks of 23 out of 31 NHL teams. So if you are watching a game and the ice is shitty, you know who to blame… the Ice Girls, obviously.
For those of you who live in the GTA and have skated on The Barbara Ann Scott Ice Trail at College Park, the trail was created using CIMCO proprietary CO2 refrigeration technology.
CEO, Scott J. Medhurst has been with the company since 1988. He was appointed President of Toromont CAT in 2004 and he came into his current position as President and CEO in 2012. He is a graduate of Toromont’s Management Trainee Program. CFO, Mike McMillan joined the executive team in March of 2020. His predecessor, Paul Jewer is retiring this year and has been working with McMillan during the transition period. VP and COO, Michael Chuddy has been with Toromont since 1995. On average, leaders have 29 years of business experience and have served at Toromont for 19 years. Seeing long tenures, good stock performance, excellent business planning and execution is usually a sign of strong leadership. In addition, insiders hold more than 3% (~$175 million) of the company’s outstanding shares. Medhurst owns more than 170 thousand shares, Chuddy owns just under 100 thousand shares and the former CEO and current Independent Chairman of Board of Directors, Robert Ogilvie owns more than 2 million shares, making him the 4th largest stockholder. High insider ownership typically signals confidence in a company's prospects. Compare this to Toromont’s main Canadian competitor, Finning, where insiders own less than 0.4% ($12 million) of the company (this number varies depending on where you look, I just took the highest one I found). Recently insiders have been selling stock (Figure 1). I cannot speak to the reasons why insiders are selling but the remaining position owned by the insider is sizable and demonstrates that the executive still has confidence in the company. Some of the reasons insiders sell are: they don't believe in the company’s future, they need money for personal use, they are rebalancing their portfolio, among others. Figure 1: Buy and selling activity of insiders (the data is from MarketBeat, so take that for what it's worth). On a somewhat unrelated but still related note, 50% of Toromont employees are also shareholders.
Toromont has five growth strategies (expand markets, strengthen product support, broaden product offerings, invest in resources, and maintain a strong financial position). I chose to focus on the following two strategies, as they seemed most prevalent.
Toromont serves a wide variety of end markets: mining, road building, power generation, infrastructure, agriculture, and refrigeration. This allows for many opportunities for growth while staying true to their core competency. Further expansion into new markets doesn't require Toromont to build a whole new business model or learn the intricacies of the new industry because their products stays the same. Thus, the main concern is the application/selection of the products for the customer.
Expansion is generally incremental. Each business unit focuses on market share growth and when the right opportunity presents itself, geographic expansion is archived through acquisitions.
Strengthening Product Support
In an industry where price competition is high, product support activities represent opportunities to develop closer relationships with customers and differentiate Toromont’s product and service offering from competitors. After-market support is an integral part of the customer's decision-making process when purchasing equipment.
Product support revenues are more consistent and profitable.
Growth Through Acquisition
Rapid growth in this industry is generally driven through acquisitions. Toromont has gone through multiple acquisitions since the 90’s:
Acquisition of the Battlefield Equipment Rentals in 1996
Toromont grew Battlefield from one location to 82 locations
Acquisition of two privately held agricultural dealerships in Manitoba to form AgWest Equipment Ltd
Acquisition of Hewitt Group of companies in Q3 2017 for a total consideration of $1.0177 billion
$917.7 million cash ($750 million of which was finances through unsecured debt) plus the issuance of 2.25 million Toromont shares (equating to $100 million based on the 10 day average share price)
Acquisition of Hewitt Group of companies This acquisition allowed Toromont to make headway into the Quebec, Western Labrador, and Maritime markets, as Hewitt was the authorized Caterpillar dealer of these regions. Hewitt was also the Caterpillar lift truck dealer of Quebec and most of Ontario and the MaK marine engine dealer for Québec, the Maritimes, and the Eastern seaboard of the United States (from Maine to Virginia). Toromont had total assets of $1.51 billion before the acquisition, the acquisition added $1.024 billion in assets, nearly doubling the balance sheet (look at Figure 2 for more details about the acquisition). Figure 2: (all numbers are in thousands) The final allocation of the purchase price was as of Dec 31, 2018, Note 25 of 2018 Annual Report. $1.024 billion was added to the Toromont’s B/S Large acquisitions like this one can be the downfall of a company. Here are some of the risks highlighted by management at the time of the acquisition:
Potential for liabilities assumed in the acquisition to exceed our estimates or for material undiscovered liabilities in the Hewitt Business
Changes in consumer and business confidence as a result of the change in ownership
Potential for third parties to terminate or alter their agreements or relationships with Toromont as a result of the acquisition
Whether the operations, systems, management, and cultures of Hewitt and Toromont can be integrated in an efficient and effective manner
In 2018, the Company started and successfully completed the integration of the Maritime dealerships acquired through Hewitt under Toromont’s decentralized branch model (bottom up approach). Under a decentralized model, regional leadership make business decisions based on local conditions, rather than taking top down mandates. A bottom up approach is an advantage in businesses like Toromont where the customer mix can vary vastly from region to region. It allows for decision-making that is better aligned with customemarket needs and more attuned to the key performance indicators used to manage the business. In 2019, the integration of the decentralized branch model was implemented in Quebec after its success in Atlantic Canada in 2018. Successful integration of Hewitt into the Toromont family shows the depth of industry and business knowledge possessed by the management team. Being able to maintain inherited customer relationships and ensure low turnover is no easy feat. Many companies have completely botched these kinds of acquisitions. One that comes to mind is Sobeys (the second largest food retailer in Canada) acquiring Safeway for $5.8 billion. Three years later, they wrote off $2.9 billion as a loss because they did not anticipate the differences in consumer habits in Western Canada vs Eastern Canada, among other oversights. The result of the acquisition and Hewitt’s integration with Toromont’s existing business produced a 39% increase in EPS in 2018 and 14% increase in 2019.
Toromont pays a quarterly dividend and has historically targeted a dividend rate that approximates 30 - 40% of trailing earnings from continuing operations. In February 2020 the Board of Directors increased the quarterly dividend by 14.8% to $0.31 per share. This marked the 31st consecutive year of increasing dividends and 52nd consecutive year of making a dividend payment. The five-year dividend-growth rate is 12.09%. Table 1: Information about the last eight dividends
Risks/Threats and Mitigation
Dependency on Caterpillar Inc. It goes without saying that Toromont’s future is heavily dependent on Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE:CAT). For those who don't know, Caterpillar is the world’s leading manufacturer of construction and mining equipment, diesel and natural gas engines, industrial gas turbines, and diesel-electric locomotives. It has a market cap in excess of $68 billion. All purchases made by Toromont must be made from Caterpillar. This agreement has been standing since 1993 and can be terminated by either side with 90 days notice. Given that the vast majority of Toromont’s inventory is Caterpillar products, Caterpillar’s brand strength and market acceptance are essential factors for Toromont’s continued success. I would say that the probability of either of these being damaged to an unrecoverable point are low, but at the beginning of this year, I would have said the probability of the world coming to a complete stop was very low too and look at what happened. Anything is possible. The reason this is a major consideration is because it's a going concern issue. Going conference is an accounting term for a company that has the resources needed to continue operating indefinitely until it provides evidence to the contrary. This term also refers to a company's ability to make enough money to stay afloat or to avoid bankruptcy. If there was irrevocable damage to Caterpillar’s brand, Toromont is no longer a going concern, meaning the company would most likely be going bankrupt or liquidating assets. The whole Company might not go under because the CIMCO, SITECH, and AgWest business units would survive but, essentially ~80% of the business would be liquidated. In addition to the morbid scenario I laid out above, Toromont is also dependent on Caterpillar for timely supply of equipment and parts. There is no assurance that Caterpillar will continue to supply its products in the quantities and time frames required by Toromont’s customers. So if there is supply chain shock, like the one we just saw, there is the chance that Toromont will not have access to sufficient inventory to meet demand. Which in turn would lead to the loss of revenue or even to the permanent loss of customers. Again, both of these threats have low a probability of occurring but either could single handedly cripple Toromont’s business. As of now, Caterpillar continues to dominate a large market share (~38% as per Gurufocus) in the industry against large competitors like John Deere, CNH Industrial, Cummins, and others. Caterpillar's stock has been on a slow decline for a couple years but that is due to reasons beyond the ones that directly concern Toromont’s day-to-day operations. I would say if you don't believe in Caterpillar’s continued market share dominance, investing in Toromont is probably not for you. Shortage of Skilled Workers Shortage of skilled tradesmen represents a pinch point for industry growth. Demographic trends are reducing the number of individuals entering the trades, thus making access to skilled individuals more difficult. Additionally, the company has several remote locations which makes attracting and retaining skilled individuals more difficult. The lack of such workers in Canada has caused Toromont to become more assertive and thoughtful in their recruitment efforts. To combat this threat, Toromont has/is:
Recruited 303 technicians to achieve growth targets
Created 208 student apprenticeship programs
Working with 19 vocational institutions in Toronto to teach about best practices and introduce the Company as a future employer to students
As a result of these initiatives and others, Toromont saw their workforce grow by ~8% 2019. Growing the workforce is one of the primary building blocks for future growth. Cyclical Business Cycle Toromont’s business is cyclical due to its customers' businesses being cyclical. This affects factors such as exchange rates, commodity/precious metal pricing, interest rates, and most importantly, inventory management. To mitigate this issue, management has put more focus on increasing revenues from product support activities as they are more profitable than the equipment supply business and less volatile. Environmental Regulations Affecting Customers Toromont’s customers are subject to significant and ever-increasing environmental legislation and regulation. This leads to 2 impacts:
Technical difficulty in meeting environmental requirements in product design -> increased costs
Reduction in business activity of Toromont’s customers in environmentally sensitive areas -> reduced revenues
Threats such as these come with a business of this type. As an investor in Toromont, you can't do much to mitigate these kinds of threats because it's out of your hands. Oil and gas, mining, forestry, and infrastructure projects are major drivers of the Canadian economy, so I think there will always be opportunity for Toromont to make money, regardless of government action. Impact of COVID19 While the company had been declared as an essential service in all jurisdictions that it operates in, Q1 2019 results were lower as a function of COVID19 reducing activity in many sectors that Toromont services. Decline in mining and construction projects lead to a decrease in demand for Toromont products in the latter part of the quarter. Revenues were trending for 5-7% growth for the quarter before the effects of COVID19 were felt. Management cannot provide any guidance on how to evaluate the impact of COVID19 on future financial results. They are focusing on ensuring the continued safety of employees and working with customers and the jurisdiction they operate in to evaluate appropriate activity levels on a daily/weekly basis. Lastly, management is keeping a close eye on how this crisis has led to an increase in A/R delinquencies and financial hardship for customers. The Executive Team and the Board of Directors have taken a voluntary compensation reduction. Wage increase freezes and temporary layoffs have been implanted on a selective basis. Management believes that expanding product offerings and services, strong financial position, and disciplined operating culture positions the Company well for continued growth in the long term. Competition Toromont competes with a large number of international, national, regional, and local suppliers. Although price competition can be strong, there are a number of factors that have enhanced Toromont’s ability to compete:
Range and quality of products and services
Ability to meet sophisticated customer requirements
Distribution capabilities including number and proximity of locations
Financing through CAT Finance
Main Competitor in Canada: Finning International Inc.
Finning International Inc. (TSE:FTT) is the world's largest Caterpillar dealer that sells, rents and provides parts and service for equipment and engines to customers across diverse industries, including mining, construction, petroleum, forestry and a wide range of power systems applications. Finning was founded in 1933 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.
Toromont Industries Ltd
Finning International Inc.
Number of Employees
Trailing P/E Ratio
Places of Operations
Manitoba, Ontario, Québec, New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland & Labrador, most of Nunavut, and the Northeastern United States
British Columbia, Yukon, Alberta, Saskatchewan, the Northwest Territories, a portion of Nunavut, UK, Ireland, Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile
Table 2: A quick comparison between Toromont and Finning. I am sure there are some people looking at this table and thinking Finning looks rather promising based on the metrics shown, especially in comparison to Toromont. Finning’s dividend yield, P/E, and price/book look more attractive. Their top line is 2x. Not to mention it operates worldwide and is the only distributor in the UK, while Toromont only operates in half of Canada.>! Before you go off thinking “I need to use my HELOC to buy some Finning,” as some people on this subreddit are prone to do, ask yourself: do you see any cause for concern in the metrics listed above? !< One glaring question I have is: why is Finning trading at half of Toromont’s market cap given that it operates internationally and has twice the number of employees and revenues of Toromont?
Q1 2020 Financial Results
Figure 3: Q1 2020 Income Statement Overall operating income, net earnings, and EPS all decreased even though Toromont saw an increase in revenue for the quarter compared to Q1 of 2019.
All of these decreases were contributed to COVID19, as the pandemic lead to increases in costs
Historically, Q1 has always been Toromont’s weakest quarter. Q1 accounts for ~20% of yearly earnings and is consistently the least profitable quarter. Toromont’s profit margin generally ranges from 5%-9% progressively increasing into the later half of the year. This is good news for investors with the thesis that the economy will return to "somewhat normal" in the latter half of this year. The majority of the earnings for 2020 are still on the table for Toromont to earn. If current conditions persist, or there is a second wave and lockdown later in the year, we will most likely see a regression in Toromont’s growth to last year’s levels or even lower. Assuming the world does return to “normal,” many of Toromont’s customers (especially in mining and construction) may try to catch up for lost time with increases to their operational activity, leading to an increase in Toromont’s sales for the remainder of the year. Of course this is a major assumption but it’s a possibility. Below is a comparison of the last eight quarters. You can see the clear cyclical nature of their business. Figure 4: Last eight quarters of earnings
Sources of Liquidity
Toromont has access to a $500 million revolving credit facility, maturing in October 2022
On April 17 2020 they secured an additional $250 million as a one year syndicate facility
Cash increased by 22.6 million for the quarter
Cash from operations increased 13% Q1 2020 compared to Q1 2019
The company also drew $100 million from their revolving credit facility
$4 million dollars of stocks were repurchased during Q1 2020
Given their access to $750.0 million dollars of credit and cash on hand equaling $388.2 million, the Company should have sufficient liquidity to operate if COVID19 and its aftermath persist for an extended period of time.
Analysis of Debt Historically, Toromont has had very low debt levels. The spike in late 2017 was due to the acquisition of Hewitt. Management paid off the debt aggressively in 2018. At the end of December 2019 Toromont had $650 million of debt maturing between 2025 and 2027. As a result of COVID19 the company has taken on more debt. This additional access to debt accounts of the slight uptick in historical debt in 2020 (Figure 5). Figure 5: Toromont’s historical debt, equity, and cash The long-term debt to capitalization ratio is a variation of the traditional debt-to-equity ratio. The long-total debt to capitalization ratio is a solvency measure that shows the proportion of debt a company uses to finance its assets, relative to the amount of equity used for the same purpose. A higher ratio means that a company is highly leveraged, which generally carries a higher risk of insolvency with it. The debt-to-equity ratio is at 47% and debt-to-capitalization ratio is 32%, Toromont has $388 million in cash that could be used to pay down debt by nearly 50% and bring the net debt-to-equity to 23% and net debt-to-capitalization to 18%. As mentioned before, management is holding on to cash to insure sufficient liquidity during these times. The implication of these ratios is that Toromont does not take on large amounts of debt to finance growth. Instead the Company leverages shareholders equity to drive growth. For comparison, Finning has a debt-to-equity ratio of ~100% (it differs between WSJ, 99%, and Yahoo Finance, 101%). The nominal amount of their total debt is ~$2.2 billion, which gives them a long-term debt to capitalization ratio 62%. Finning carries $260 million in cash. Figure 6: Toromont’s debt-to-capitalization and debt-to-equity ratios Profitability Ratios Return on equity (also known as return on net assets) measures how effectively management is using a company’s assets to create profits. Toromont’s return on equity is generally around 20%. Go to Figure 6 to look at the ROE for the last 4 years. In comparison, Finning has had a ROE of ~11% for the last three years, about 3% in 2016 and a negative ROE in 2015 (as per Morningstar). Return on capital employed (ROCE) tries to find the return relative to the total capital employed in the business (both debt & equity less short-term liabilities). Toromont’s ROCE (ttm) for March 31 2020 was 22%. This means for every dollar employed in the business 22 cents were earned in EBIT (earnings before interest and tax). Finning had a ROCE of 11% as of December 2019. Liquidity Ratios Working capital is the amount of cash and other current assets a business has available after all its current liabilities are accounted for. In the last ten years, Toromont’s working capital has fluctuated between 1.6 at its lowest (2018) to 2.8 at its highest (2016). At the end of 2019 it was at 1.8. Meaning current liabilities equate to 60% of current assets. Interest coverage ratio is used to determine how easily a company can pay their interest expenses on outstanding debt. Toromont has an interest coverage ratio 15x (as per WSJ). Finning on the other hand is at 4x. At this point I feel like I'm just beating up on Finning. For those of you who made it this far, I have to admit something to you. This whole post is just a facade to ask you a question that has never been asked on this subreddit before: Should I buy BPY.UN? It keeps going down and I'm worried if I buy it, it will keep going down and I'll lose money. I don't want to lose money. Although if you go through my post history, you'll see I've been looking at/buying penny stocks.
Key Performance Measures
Below is a chart with key financial measures for the last four years. A few things I want to highlight:
Toromont had large capital expenditure last year (most of it went to increasing inventory) so they have the choice to keep capital expenditure down this year and preserve cash
From the start of 2018 (aka end of 2017) to the end of 2018 Toromont stock was down about 3% while the TSX Composite was down more 12% and S&P was down 7%. This stock has a history of out performance not only on the upside but also on the downside. I'll go into a bit more detail in the next section.
I don't do technical analysis. To those who do, good luck to you because let's be real, you'll need it. This section is just to get an idea of past performance and evaluate the opportunity cost of investing in Toromont compared to a competitor or a board based index fund. I thought it would be easier to look at pictures as opposed to reading a bunch of numbers off a table. For the sake of not creating a picture album of screenshots, I just looked at charts for the last 5 years. If you're interested in looking at different time intervals you can do so on google finance.
Toromont Industries Ltd v. Finning International Inc.
Figure 8: Five year price chart of TIH v. FTT These are the only two Caterpillar distributors on the TSX, making them direct comparisons. If I was looking for exposure to this industry, I would be choosing between these two companies (on the TSX anyways). There isn't really much to evaluate here. It's like they saying: “A picture is a thousand words,” or in this case, it's 128%. If you have time, go look at the graph from August 1996 to now. I can safely say it hasn't been much of a competition. Toromont has outperformed by ~2500% in stock price appreciation alone. If you're a glass half full kind of person, I guess you could look at this disparity as Finning having enormous upside. LOL
Toromont Industries Ltd v. S&P 500 Index
Figure 9: Five year price chart of TIH v. VFV If I'm not buying individual stocks, I’m buying the S&P 500 and to a lesser extent a Nasdaq index fund. This gives me a second look at the opportunity cost of my money. The story is not as bad as the Finning comparison. If you had bought $100 dollars of Toromont stock 5 years ago, it would have turned into $207 today, whereas the same $100 dollars in VFV would have became $157. Just a quick aside, you can see the volatility in Toromont’s stock is much higher compared to the VFV. VFV has a relatively smooth trend upwards while Toromont trends upwards in a jagged path. This is the risk of single stocks, they move up and down more erratically, leading inventors who don't have a grasp of the business or conviction in their pick to panic sell or post countless times on Reddit asking why their stocks keep going down. “I bought the stock last week and it's done 3% already, do you guys think it’s going bankrupt? I thought stonks only go up???”
Toromont Industries Ltd v. S&P/TSX Capped Industrials Index
Figure 10: Five year price chart of TIH v. ^TTIN The S&P/TSX Capped Industrials Index isn't my favourite comparison for Toromont because its constituents cover many industries ranging from waste management (WCN), to railways (CNCP), to Airlines (AC, lol, had to mention it. I miss the days when there were double digits posts about AC. I wonder where those people have gone, because I can tell you where AC stock has gone... absolutely nowhere). Regardless, I used TTIN because I deemed it a better comparison to Toromont than the entire TSX. The story is on par with the other two comparisons. Toromont’s out performance is significant. I just threw this bonus chart in here because when I saw it, I was like BRUHHH (insert John Wall meme)… It's completely unsustainable but that's impressive given the vast differences between the two.
Toromont Industries Ltd v. NASDAQ-100
Figure 11: Five year price chart of TIH v. ZQQ Now, of course, past performance does not dictate future results and all that good stuff, but it really gets you thinking about how the rewards disproportionately favours winners compared to the overall market. People are generally happy getting market returns (i.e. the just buy VGRO people) but being able to pick even a few winners really pays. This reminds me of the Warren Buffet quote: “diversification is protection against ignorance.” The context of the quote is that if you are able to study a few industries in great depth and acquire a wealth of knowledge, you can see returns astronomically higher than those who diversify across the board market. The problem then becomes you put yourself at risk of having all your eggs in one basket. Look at what's happening with Wirecard in Europe right now. This is why the real skill in investing is managing risk.
Analyst Price Targets and Estimates
The prince targets set for by analysts range from $63-$81. The average price target is ~$72, with the majority of targets within the 70-$71 range. Given the current price of $65.66, there is a ~10% upside. These price targets haven't changed much due to COVID19 even though revenues and EPS forecasts have been downgraded for 2020. The consensus estimate on 2020 revenues is $3.36 billion, down from the actual revenues of $3.69 billion in 2019 and the consensus EPS for 2020 is $3.01 down from actual EPS of $3.52 for 2019 and $3.10 for 2018. The fact that revenues and EPS forecasts have been downgraded, yet price targets remain untouched, for the most part, indicates that the effects of COVID19 are expected to be short-lived. Figure 12: Earnings and estimate ranges for Toromont. Note: EPS numbers in this graphic are diluted EPS numbers.
Multiples Assuming P/E ratio stays the same as it has been for the last 12 months (~19x) and EPS goes down to ~$3.00 (as per analyst consensus), the implied price would be $57. Using the last 12 months of revenues, the EV-to-Revenues ratio is at 1.56x. Assuming that ratio stays the same and with revenues estimated to be ~$3.36 billion, enterprise value (EV) comes out to $5.2416 billion. Using Q1 2020 figures for shares outstanding (82.015 million), cash ($388.182 million), and debt ($745.703 million), the implied price for a share is $58.94*. \Note: Enterprise Value is equal to market cap plus total debt minus cash.) Dividend Discount Model The dividend discount model (DDM) is a method of valuing a company's stock price based on the theory that its stock is worth the sum of all of its future dividend payments, discounted back to their present value. The average dividend growth rate is 12% for the last 5 years is 12%. There is no way Toromont can increase the dividend at this pace in the long term, thus, I chose a long term dividend growth rate of 5%. This is the assumed rate in perpetuity. The required rate of return will equal WACC, 6.85% (averaged from 2019 Annual Report). The dividend over the last year is $1.16 (two payments of $0.27 in 2019 and two payments of $0.31 for 2020). The fair value equals $65.84. Figure 13: DDM calculation.
There is no doubt that Toromont trades at a large premium. The current P/E is 19x and the CAPE ratio (Shiller P/E) is 26x. The fair value of the Company as per Morningstar research is in the mid $60 range. Based on all valuations I did and analyst price targets, I would start buying in the high $50 range or maybe the very low $60 range, but my belief in the company has to do with long term thematic trends and how the Company operates, rather than today's price. Although I have to admit, the price does look more attractive now than it did in the beginning of June when the stock hit new all time highs. It seems like the only companies hitting new all time highs these days are tech companies, so it's refreshing to find a non-tech company achieving the same feat. Toromont is not going to double next year or the year after that. It is a relatively low margin business, with slow growth and a cyclical business cycle. I like that the Company has strong financials, low debt, and good management. They don't take shortcuts or unwarranted risk. Future growth will mostly be driven through acquisition, but management is cautious with acquisitions and don't overextend themselves. One of the biggest problems Finning has been facing for the last couple years is political and social turmoil in South American countries which is affecting their mining clients and thus affecting revenues/margins. The Q2 earnings are reported on July 22 202. We should have a clearer picture on the prospects of the Company from management. Hopefully we have a better idea of the COVID19 situation by then too. Regardless, I think the company is in a position where its services will always be in demand so short term fluctuations are not something that shake my confidence in this pick.
Limitations and Further Areas of Research
By no means is this an exhaustive due diligence report. This is enough for me to feel confident in the business and its trajectory. Limitations/further areas of the research include:
Looking into the growth of each sector Toromont services and extrapolating that growth to calculate Toromont’s future growth opportunity.
As per IBIS Research the heavy equipment rental market in Canada is ~$8.3 billion. It grew 1.1% yearly for the last 5 years.
The US market is estimated to be $47 billion, with an average growth of 2% for the last 5 years
Sorry but I couldn't get my hands on future projections as each report is $750
More research into competitors
I chose to include Finning only for simplicity’s sake. But there are many other competitors like:
United Rentals (NYSE:URI) provides similar services to Toromont/Finning in 49 U.S. states, 10 Canadian provinces, Puerto Rico and four European countries. The only thing being they aren't distributors for Caterpillar.
Rocky Mountain Dealerships Inc (TSE:RME) sells, leases, and provides product and warranty support for agriculture and industrial equipment in Western Canada
Holt Cat, N C Machinery, Ziegler CAT (none of these companies are publicly traded)
Further analysis can be done on the B/S and accounting treatments.
The effects of automation in the industry
Distributors in the US have started working with industrial automation companies to provide autonomous construction equipment on rent to contractors
Sunstate Equipment Co.'s partnership with Built Robotics
I was not able to do a discounted cash flow, which would be critical to finding the intrinsic value for Toromont and having true confidence in the company and its trajectory.
Further analysis of CIMCO and prospects of future growth
Based of the financials, CIMCO seemed like a small part of the business, which is why I mainly focused on the Caterpillar dealership side
These are not all the limitations or areas of further research, they are just the glaring one that came to mind. >! I know I took a few shots at people in this post. It's all in good jest. If you're offended well.... maybe you should be. I don't know, you have to figure that out on your own or you could make a post on Reddit asking random people on the internet whether you should be offended or not. !< Remember I'm not an expert, I'm just a random guy on the internet.
I am long Toromont. This information is not financial advice. Please do your own research and/or talk to a financial advisor. All data provided is current prior to the market opening on June 29, 2020. Inconsistencies in data can be due to many reasons, the foremost being that data was spruced from multiple different websites.
$Rkt Rocket Companies Raging bull case for a undervalued pink chip stock with 7 solid reasons why I'm investing. Would love to hear the opposing side
New account and could not post on /Wallstreetbets, therefore you guys are more worthy of this DD. Key take away, I Will 3X my money this next year with this large cap stock $RKT. it is at 51bil market cap with a P/E of around 5.30¿¿¿ The average pe in this industry is 16 so I'mma need y'all to bump these numbers up a bit mhhhkkkayyyy This is my 10 days of DD concisely put into a numbers based approach for the significance of Rocket Companies $RKT. Hopefully your thesis matches up with mine so we can hold for what it's worth to make an impact. I suggest you spend 5 mins looking into Rocket mortgage before reading my post for a bigger picture into my small perspective. I will say this to preface "DETROIT, Aug. 6, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- Detroit-based Rocket Companies, Inc. ("Rocket Companies" or the "Company") today celebrates its debut on the New York Stock Exchange ("NYSE") as a publicly traded company with its stock beginning to trade under the ticker symbol "RKT." Founded by Dan Gilbert, tech-driven Rocket Companies provides industry-leading real estate, mortgage and financial services, empowering consumers through entities including Rocket Homes, Rocket Auto and Rocket Mortgage, the nation's largest mortgage lender." sep 2 earnings 35-40 September pt, expect small profit taking during earnings for a continuation holding until ~April 2022 interest rates may be low to 2024 remember as interest rates fall RKT moons with more profit 3.5% and Under is gold. 2022-2024 lowest interest rates expected. pe ratio of 16 is average for this companies endeavors comparitave to others 80-99pt(12months-18months) shooting for16-20 pe(average pe in their industry)
Currently Underappreciated (51 billion market cap) 5.3 current pe The Math if earnings is at 3.5bil this quarter plus 1.37 bil. last quarter. a good guestimate will be 9.75bil per year thru 2022(likely to 2024 if we are observing dropping interest rates after 2008 recession that lasted 4 years of falling 2.6% of interest rates total starting at 6.63%(2008) highest down to 4% (2012)highest. lowest 5.1%(2008) down to 3.31%(2012)
Why and How Rkt will outperform the industry
They Are Cutting Middle Man, buying insurance providers for better cost and profit. plus added referral rate.
8 vs 2 average loan effieceny per employee per month for quicker growth comparitavely to the avg mortgage company.
They are the fastest way to a loan with the most profit margin for an extremely seem less process ( think time is money, big investors don't want a headache and want to save their time while having an organized process)
with lower interest rates thru 2022 maybe 2024 creates more profit and interest in rockets loans.
mind you the highest rate in 2019 was 5.34% and 3.63% lowest. so we are due to see L 1.8%-H 3.6% 2024 if history repeats which would be the lowest rates I've ever seen. J Pow promised lower rates for 2 years at least
they are diving into zillows atmosphere of intuitive home buying via AI data driven App interface
Rant: Of late, there’s been too much low-quality, bullshit DD on here. I’ve come to rescue you from your own retardation—a formidable task, I might add. Fortunately, I’m not going to do it alone. I’ll be doing it with the help of Thomas Peterffy, a Hungarian refugee who revolutionized the brokerage industry, and in so doing went from penury to multi-billionaire-hood. Peterffy is the founder of $IBKR, or Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. Here’s a description I definitely did not rip directly from CapitalIQ: “Interactive Brokers operates as an automated electronic broker worldwide. It specializes in executing and clearing trades in securities, futures, foreign exchange instruments, bonds, and mutual funds. The company custodies and services accounts for hedge and mutual funds, registered investment advisors, proprietary trading groups, introducing brokers, and individual investors. In addition, it offers custody, prime brokerage, securities, and margin lending services. Further, the company provides electronic execution and clearing services. It serves institutional and individual customers through approximately 120 electronic exchanges and market centers. The company was founded in 1977 and is headquartered in Greenwich, Connecticut.” Essentially, IBKR is inverse Robinhood. It has a shockingly bad user interface, is not designed to gamify investing, and does not have a retarded userbase. However, it does have better fills, better tech, a wider variety of options (both literal and figurative), more client AUM, etc. This is why you might not have heard of it. But rest assured, it’s a massive company; it is, essentially, the engine mobilizing much of the market machine. I’m bullish for two main reasons:
Upcoming earnings (July 22nd) and July EOM numbers report
Comparable companies have shown huge growth (e.g. $VIRT in Q1, which reported three weeks after IBKR and caught more Covid-trading)
IBKR releases monthly KPIs, the last batch of which came out recently, validated the theories described herein, and sent us on an upwards trajectory
Momentum: this stock is an inverse POS, which recently tends to go up with SPY but not down
TL;DR: IBKR 8/21 $55 C, $60 C for higher risk Business Pros:
High moat business with tons of IP
IBKR releases monthly metrics; these have been very strong as mentioned above:
1,862 thousand Daily Average Revenue Trades (DARTs), 131% higher than prior year and 13% higher than prior month.
Ending client equity of $203.2 billion, 33% higher than prior year and 7% higher than prior month.
Ending client margin loan balances of $24.9 billion, 3% lower than prior year and 7% higher than prior month.
Ending client credit balances of $71.0 billion, including $3.1 billion in insured bank deposit sweeps, 30% higher than prior year and 1% higher than prior month.
876,000 client accounts, 36% higher than prior year and 4% higher than prior month.
487 annualized average cleared DARTs per client account.
IBKR makes most of its money from loans by acting as a quasi-bank
More total client AUM is very good for revenue (see third and second bullet from bottom above)
We’ve just seen banks with a focus on trading outperform, again emphasizing what a large role trading activity is playing in this market
IBKR also be seen tech company—but it’s not above its pre-Covid high unlike most
Serves as a volatility hedge, because volatility is profitable for the company (cheap IV)
This can be seen in part by it’s relatively low market correlation (B = .63)
Volatility will almost certainly increase as we enter earnings season
Great international focus
Recently opened an office in Singapore
69% of their clients are outside the U.S. (international account growth rate at 23% vs 15% in US) which gives broader revenue base
Relatedly, the biggest opportunity driving Net Interest Margin (NIM) income is from key customer segments. There’s only around <0.5% of target asset market (TAM) penetrated in fields of global retail clients through intro brokers, financial advisors and hedge funds.
Peterffy has spoken to the idea that IBKR could capture more TAM and become a high multibagger long term by capturing more TAM.
Major holder of $TIGR, which has done extremely well
$IBKR netted over $1 billion so far off the $TIGR IPO, and the stock has been strong recently
8% short float w/ high days to cover
Not really short-squeeze material, but somewhat squeeze-like conditions existent
Earnings could squeeze this, especially because management owns so much of the stock
Comparables like $VIRT have done super well; IBKR might not be as explosive but certainly should do better than it has been
“The CEO I admire most is Thomas Peterffy of Interactive Brokers. He came to the U.S. penniless and built a massive fortune and, more importantly, a great company. His is a story of innovation; he was one of the first to use computers for market making. Peterffy was smart enough to see the applications of technology to online brokerage, and brave enough to pursue what could effectively kill the market-making business— and he is a great executor. The business has profitably and steadily grown the account base, growing brokerage accounts by 15%+ per year like clockwork. Peterffy still personally owns over 70% of the company, and all but ten of the company’s approximately 1,400 employees own shares. He has built a company with the lowest costs and highest margins, a very long runway for growth, a history of execution, and a highly aligned team.”
CEO explicitly called it a “stay-at-home stock”
Trading volume was 3X normal and account openings were 4x normal back in April—more people have gotten into the game since then!
“Despite markets down about 9% year-on-year, our total client equity rose 9% to $161 billion, the second highest quarterly total in our history.”
The above is only from Q1
Momentum, momentum, momentum. Some of you need to learn that.
They have fuckups, and recently got a ton of bad PR due to the oil contango fiasco!
Not the greatest customer service, certainly (does anyone really give a shit, though?)
Diverse customer base leaves it susceptible to geopolitical and geoeconomic risk
Stock was in a downtrend since 2018 before recent turnaround—who knows where momentum is now
The high (85%) percentage of shares owned by management means that shareholders are effectively a minority interest
To me, this is good, as it indicates a longer term focus, but it might not be good for short term results
Highly valued (possibly fundamentally overvalued) at a PE of 24.9x
Lower interest rates—which will remain for the foreseeable future—are a headwind
That being said, IBKR is less susceptible to them than other brokers
Interest rate risk is lessened as they adopt a relatively fixed net interest margin (NIM) spread.
Client balances receive 50bps below the Fed Funds rate, and excess cash is invested in repos & treasuries, while margin rates are typically 25bps – 150 bps above the Fed Funds, with rates depending on the size of margin.
Most major risks on the downside (refinance, credit risk, interest rate risks etc.) are limited. The main risk is that if they’ve already largely penetrated their TAM and are unable to drive success by broadening appeal to their other market segments valuation is overly rich at these levels.
This market is volatile, and IBKR is in no way immune to volatility in SPY. So you might want to hedge this play.
Summary: Interactive Brokers (IBKR) is a tech-focused, low cost brokerage firm. It is also a quasi-bank, making money through interest on client assets. It benefits when:
Interest rates increase
When account signups increase (they have a paid Pro version); this is minor
When total user AUM increases
When DARTs volume increases
While interest rates have declined, IBKR is comparatively less susceptible than are its competitors. And for various reasons outlined above, we can rest assured items 2 through 4 will continue to rise dramatically. This should result in significant appreciation. Is there room to run? Certainly. The ATH is $79.70, which also arrived after a period of volatility (remember, volatility is good for IBKR!). Of course, there’s a time-lag element to the results of volatility, which I map out below. We’re just getting into the good part now: nut For all of these reasons, I believe that Earnings + EOM KPI updates will pour gasoline on the recent fire. Or, as George Soros crustily uttered between denture fittings: “You want to be long the things that are going up, and short the ones that are going down.” TL;DR: IBKR 8/21 $55 C, $60 C for more risk/reward Positions (wanted to let it run a bit before helping out you tardigrades): https://preview.redd.it/32ru2d00i8b51.png?width=1416&format=png&auto=webp&s=0b592f1b956daa8f1dff04544f4bdb6a27e55d24 Disclaimer: not investment advice! do your own DD. I have a position, obviously. Do not yolo. Hedge your bets.
[Standard] Mono-G without any 4 drop creatures. Meta and and Sideboard Guide.
Greetings Spikes! I am re-posting this because the original was removed because the title was too click-baity. This season I was able to win the race to #1 with a somewhat off the beaten path version of Mono-G. I was able to hit Mythic #1 12 hours after the ladder reset with a 93% win rate. Since, I have been able to maintain the #1 spot by the end of each day [EST] and am sitting at #2 as I write this article. As to the rest of my resume, I've only been playing Magic seriously for about a year. I've made Mythic five times and have finished in the top 200 in 3 of the last 4 seasons. Every major client updates my untapped.gg goes haywire so I don’t have the stats from my initial climb to #1. Untapped became live again for me yesterday and you can see and track my results here The List: Rumti MonoGreen You might notice a shift from typical mono-G decks. It runs zero 4 CMC+ creatures. That means no Questing Beasts or Gemrazors. The list runs 26 creatures in the main, all of which are 1-3 CMC. It relies on 4 of primal might, 3 Vivienne, 2 Nissa, and 2 Henge to close games that go long. If you want to see the deck in action and hear me walk through my plays as I go I’m on twitch at https://www.twitch.tv/rumti 6-12pm eastern M-F. Notable Card Choices: Primal Might – I run 4 of primal might because it does what questing beast was supposed to do but better. It’s the best response to an on curve Nissa as long as you have at least 3 power on board, which you almost always do. On turn 4 you can pump a 3/3 to 6/6, clear their land with the fight effect, and take Nissa off the board. In the same situation questing beast gets chumped by the land or the land trades with your 3/3 and you get in for 3 or 4 damage on Nissa and they untap with a huge advantage. In addition to the great use case I’ve outlined above the card has no downside. Unlike other fight effects Primal Might can give you additional reach out of nowhere even if oppo has no creature on board. It also serves as a win condition late game, especially if you manage to untap with a Nissa on board. 20/20 stonecoil anyone? Yes please. Primal might lets mono-G fight with all of the ramp going on. It’s the MVP of the deck, hands down. Scavenging Ooze (scooze) – Not a lot has to be said about this card. Everyone knew it was going to be good when it was revealed and the fact that it keeps all the Uro decks in check is a beautiful thing. It’s our one equalizer in our worst m/u (rakdos sac) and it performs well in just about every match up in the meta because it heals, gets bigger over time, and manages mitigates oppo’s access to very powerful graveyard synergies (Uro, ECD, Tamiyo). I include it as a 3 of because while it’s a very powerful card, graveyard creatures are a limited resource and they lose value on the 2nd and 3rd drawn in a lot of match ups. I include 1 in the side for Vivienne fetches and to go to 4 of in certain match ups (4 of Uro decks and Rakdos Sac) Garruk’s Harbinger – I’m very high on this card in the current meta. I keep trying to get it to a 3 of in the deck but I can’t settle on what would be a good cut. The strengths of the card are that it’s a 3 mana 4 power card which activates a card draw if you are shattered on turn 4. It cannot be ignored so oppo typically has to use premium removal to take it off the board or take unfavorable trades. If your Garruk’s Harbinger forces an early sweep, draws an ECD or even an extinction event you should feel good because that’s a critical card out from the oppo for the cost of a 3 drop and perhaps one of your 1-2 turn plays. Four power is also a breakpoint in the mirror and Temur Rec because he can trade with Ambusher and Questing Beast at 3 CMC. Growth Chamber Guardian – This is an old staple that always goes in and out of favor. With this deck, it joins the Great Henge and Garruk as another way to gain card advantage when you flood or are otherwise low on resources. It can end up being 12/12 worth of stats for effectively 1 card draw when you are in a board stall or a top/deck race. It synergies very well with both Henge and Vivienne as their counters also proc the tutor effect. Just like Harbinger, it can get to 4 power which is important in the mirror, VS. Temur Rec, and trades favorably with Nissa lands. You can often continue to swing with this at 2/2 if you leave 3 mana open during the attack phase because they must respect the adapt. This is one of the more difficult cards to maximize it's impact because you really need to know oppo's interaction spells and when it's safe to adapt and when not to. Nissa, Who Wins the Game – Nissa couldn’t find a comfortable spot in mono-G lists previous to M21 because there just wasn’t a good way to capitalize on all the mana she gave you and a 3/3 for five that can set you back on lands if dealt with just underwhelmed. However, M21 gave us two premium mana sinks that can take advantage of Nissa in big ways in Primal Might and Scooze. Couple that with Growth Chamber Guardian and Stonecoil Serpent and you have 11 cards in deck that can make full use of her abilities. The fact that this list already controls the board in 90% of games, it is a very tall order for your opponent to deal with her through combat so she demands targeted removal. You are often putting your opponent in the position of choosing between dealing with your board or dealing with your Nissa and that’s a great place to be. Notable Exclusions: Questing Beast (QB) – A Mono-G list without Questing Beast?! What is this heresy?! Look, I get it. QB is a staple and a house and the paragraph of card text could instead be replaced with “play me” in all caps. But hear me out. This deck has 15 mana sinks and lives on double spelling/ability on turn 3 and 4. You will often find yourself in a position where you need to eat Uro out of the yard with 4 mana on board and wouldn’t it be nice to do that and play a Garruk’s harbinger? If you had a QB in hand you are choosing between letting the Uro Recur or putting a 4/4 creature on board that will likely net you less damage than the Uro is going to heal for. This list runs 1-3 drop creatures exclusively in order to give you the flexibility to capitalize on your mana sinks and still develop board. 4 CMC creatures routinely lead to awkward turns. That said, I put in the side for certain m/u which I cover in the SB guide below. Gemrazor – I love Gemrazor. I’ve played hundreds of games with this card and they’ve won me my fair share. That being said, it just isn’t optimal in this list. It has anti-synergy with pelt collector and Henge, it invites 2 for 1’s and it incentivizes not going as wide as possible. I tried using it as a SB card but it always felt like I could be doing better things with the slot so it got the cut. Ram Through – I run zero of these in the main because Primal Might covers your targeted removal for game one. While Primal Might being sorcery speed is a big drawback, the fact that it’s not a dead card against low/no creature decks and it’s superior flexibility just make it the superior card for game 1. That said, I put 3 ram throughs in the side to bring in against the mirror and Temur Rec. Match Up Guide I’ll go into as much depth as I can for what I consider the top tiemost popular decks and then spend a little less time on the rest of the field here. Temur Rec (favored) While it might not feel that way when they go off, the deck is favored against Temur Rec due to the amount of pressure it can consistently generate in the early game and the fact it can close out games with haste creatures after post sideboard. There are Temur Rec lists out there that are very favored against mono-G (storms wrath, flame sweep, brazen borrower) but I find at the top of the ladder people haven’t sold out to stop the mono-G monster yet and are running decks that are tuned more for the Ramp match ups. This could change at any time, but I do not see it being the case any time soon, with the popularity of the ramp decks right now. It is important to get in for all the damage that you can and in most cases I do not advise letting the threat of an ambusher stop you from maximizing your potential face damage in game 1. It is more likely that holding back your 1-3 power creatures on turn 4 is going to give oppo additional turns to stabilize than oppo is going to drop an ambusher to blow you out. Not that it never happens, but this is a game of playing to your outs and limiting your opponent’s outs. I prefer to give Temur Rec fewer turns whenever possible. Be very careful with your growth-chamber guardian adaptations because they have a lot of instant speed interaction to punish you. Sideboard: IN – 3x Ram through (for ambusher) 1x Garruk’s Harbinger, 2x questing beast, 4x shifting ceratops. 1x Scooze OUT – 2x Nissa, 2x Henge, 4x Primal Might, 3x Vivien This is a very aggressive sideboard plan. Basically, you are side boarding out all of the cards that they can gain advantage against with negate/aether gust. Playing a Nissa, a henge, or a Vivienne is great if you can resolve it but more often the impact is you skip turn 4/5 and they negate/gust for 2 and turn the corner on you. By going to 36 creatures you are always going to have a turn 1/2/3 play and then if they gust your turn 4 it’s not so bad because you already have enough pressure on board that they need to do two or three things per turn to stay alive which is a tall order even for Temur Rec. Bant Ramp(favored) This is another situation where if they hit their dream draw it can be a lights out situation regardless of what the home team plays. Fortunately, we are much more likely to hit our aggression than they are to find the perfect answers. Bant Ramp sacrifices a lot (durdles) to try to race to Ugin8 and you can often close games before they get there. Additionally, Nissa and Stonecoils routinely put them in situations where Ugin8 is no longer an out for them. I cannot tell you how many games I have won with a 4/4 stonecoil or a Nissa on board when he drops his Ugin8 and weeps because big daddy Ugin just isn’t enough. Garruks Harbinger is a big performer in this m/u because it triggers card draw from an on-curve shatter which can keep you on plan and mitigate the lost value. Additionally, if he cannot answer it immediately you quickly begin to outvalue his answers. Harbinger can also draw an ECD out which they would rather have for your Nissa’s later but since they can’t let harbinger connect, they have to drop it. One final thing to remember is that the great Henge cannot be minused away by Ugin8 when he is first played because it is 9 CMC. This can let you recover sometimes, but it is not often relevant. Sideboard: IN –1x Garruk’s Harbinger, 2x questing beast, 4x shifting ceratops. OUT – 2x Nissa, 2x Henge, 3x Vivien To be honest, I do not think I have perfected the sideboard plan against Bant Ramp and at the current time the meta isn’t settled enough to have an always correct strategy. A lot is going to depend on what you see in game 1. If you see a 4feri, the value of questing beast and shifting ceratops goes up and the value of your fight spells goes down. I am comfortable saying that your primal mights need to stay in so that you can deal with Nissa when she comes down. Other than that, I think you can reasonably go a lot of different ways. What I have settled on for now is a similar plan for the Temur Rec sideboard, I dump all my non creature spells (except Primal Might), go to 35 creatures and dare them to stay alive. I used to board in some interaction so I can clear Jolreal more consistently, but I have found it marginally better solution to just add pressure until they are forced to chump with her. Sultai Ramp(favored) Suiltai Ramp plays similarly to Bant Ramp but instead of Shatters and heavy bounces they run extinction event and some bounces and some spot removal. This list does a really good job of diversifying the power across odd and even creatures, so extinction event isn’t likely to be a blow out situation as it is in more traditional mono-G lists. Does not mean you love to see it, but you can often recover and keep pressure on. Garruk’s Harbinger’s are again good here because they blank eliminate and heartless act and dodge casualties of war as a creature option. Be very careful with your growth-chamber guardian adaptations because they have some 2-cost instant speed interaction to punish you. Sultai Ramp could improve their odds against you with ritual of soot but I haven’t seen a lot of it (I’ve seen some, but never 4 of and it just hasn’t blew me out routinely in the m/u). Sultai will often drop down a Cavalier of Thorns and put you in a spot where if you kill it he gets a premium card out of his yard. Scooze and Primal might are your hero cards in this situation. You can eat away his best options, primal might the Cavvy boi down and go upstairs for massive damage all at the same time. Noice! Primal Might can also get you over a big shark, krasis, or Uro to close games for you. Sideboard: IN –1x Garruk’s Harbinger, 2x questing beast, 4x shifting ceratops 1x ooze. OUT – 2x Nissa, 2x Henge, 3x Vivien 1x troll While the original 60 is very strong as long as oppo doesn’t hit a great casualties of war, I like to mitigate the value they might get from casualties and go max aggression post sideboard. This is very similar to the Bant Ramp plan but since Sultai is more effective at populating the graveyard I bring in the 4th scooze here. Rakdos Sac (unfavored) Our main deck only runs 4 primal mights for our removal which just isn’t enough to consistently keep up with their must answer threats (4 priests, 4 devils, 2 Judiths with 2 call of the death dwellers to recur them). And they can block your biggest non-trampler forever once they resolve the cat/oven. It’s a game of hope they don’t draw more of those critical dudes than you can respond to and hope that you can win with an alpha strike or two before they can swing the game with a call of the death dwellered Judith/devil or multiple priest sacs. Bonus footage, all 26 of our main deck creatures are claimable. It is just a tough match up. However, Scooze can tip the scales if you can keep one on the board and they cannot claim it down. Most of my wins come on the back of scooze delaying their game plan long enough for me to get wide and the fact they cannot profitably block us without the cat/oven in play. Sideboard: IN – 3x ram through, 2x titanic brawl 1x scooze 2x questing beast OUT – 2x Nissa, 2viv, 4x Growth-Chamber Guardian Post board, the deck runs 11 interaction spells and we bring them all in. Titanic Brawl is a particularly strong performer in this matchup because you have a lot of ways to get a 2 power creature with a +1 counter on it which means you can often answer their priest at instant speed for 1 mana. It’s a tough call and I’m not yet sure it’s correct, but I take out the Growth-Chamber Guardians because you want your trolls available early to fight down priests and they have so many ways to make it impossible to adapt them that they seem to be the weakest creature available to make room for your interaction. I go down on Nissa and Viviene’s because we can’t reduce our creature density too much or we won’t be able to stick anything to the board to fight with. Vivien can be great in the m/u but she can just as often put you in a tough situation where she’s a 4 mana fight spell that gets pinged down or easily/cleared or she buffs up one of your guys just to have them get claimed and take her down for free. Mono-Green standard list (favored) As long as you don’t get aggroed down early the long game is typically in your favor. Longer games end up in board stalls waiting for the first person to break symmetry. This is where Nissa gives us the advantage because she not only generates 3/3s every turn but she lets us win the scooze battles, make bigger stonecoils, and primal mights and more flexibility with Growth Chamber Guardians. Their big advantage is that they have Gemrazors and we do not. However, it can be very tough for them to hold their Gemrazor until you get a Henge down because the fight for the board is so important. Keep in mind that Gemrazor can nuke a stonecoil too, which can be worse than them hitting your Henge in some situations. Try not to expose yourself to a situation where they can blow you out with a mutated Gemrazor if you can, but don’t play around it so hard that you give up the board entirely. Your main goal in the early game are to keep them low enough that they can’t get a cheap henge down while forcing or taking the most efficient blocks you can. It is okay to let them get upstairs for big damage if it means you get to set up a board state that they can’t attack into next turn. Primal Might is a key card and should be used to maximum advantage. For instance, using it on a barkhide troll in the early turns so you can get upstairs for 4-5 damage will almost always be regretted later. We are okay with them getting a henge down once both sides are in top deck mode because we have Growth-Chamber Guardians, and Nissa, Who Wins the Game to break symmetry. Ulting a Nissa with lands on the board often leads to an inevitable win. Sideboard: IN – 3x ram through 2x questing beast 1x Garruk’s Harbinger OUT – 2 scooze, 2 barkhide troll, 1 forest, 1 stonecoil serpent Ram throughs and Vivienne are important to answer their questing bests as primal mights end up 2 for 1ing yourself. It’s also handy to keep them off their Lovestrucks/Oakhome adversaries. It’s a tough call, but I go down to 1 ooze in this m/u. We have to choose something to take out and since the graveyard is a limited resource it’s often best to hope to get one early, but if you don’t just deal with the ones they put down and then an empty graveyard ends up making them vanilla 2/2 which just isn’t a winning card. Mono-red (favored) This is a pretty straightforward m/u. The only real decision to make is when can you pressure there life total versus when you should stand back and make a big wall. My rule of thumb is only attack when you are certain you can’t get punished for it. It is very nice to put them in a situation where they can’t win if they attack because the crackback would be lethal, but you have to watch out for the same thing on your side and they can put out extraordinary amounts of dmg out of nowhere. The first time I lost a game that I couldn’t otherwise lose because I wanted to get in for 5 was the last time.. Against cavalcade version you want to remove everything they drop as much as you can to keep them off their 1/1s. Against big read you want to use your removal on Steamkins early (but not late), Anax, and Torbran. Sideboard: IN – 3x ram through, 2x titanic brawl OUT – 2x Nissa, 2x Garruk’s Harbinger, 1x land Be mindful that they bring in claim from the sideboard and love to put cleave on your lovestruck for the win, make sure you can’t block to survive such a play. They also bring in a LOT of removal from the side. Lava Coils, Redcap melee’s etc… Don’t fall for the bait of blocking a Fervent Champion with your lovestruck beast just to have them redcap/lava coil your most important creature off the board. u/WYorion This deck runs similar to bant ramp but they always run 4feri and multiple shatters. Scooze is still good because of ECD but not as good as against Uro decks. There aren’t a ton of primal targets outside of Yorion himself, but the pump on it is still very relevant game 1. Sideboard: IN: 1x Garruk’s Harbinger, 2x QB, 3x Shifting Ceratops OUT: 1xHenge, 1x Vivien, 4x Primal Might This is the rare m/u that you can ditch all your interaction in exchange for cards that help you add pressure and go wide. The QB and the ceratops are to mitigate the power of 4feri. You always want to clear 3feri and 4feri unless you have lethal, otherwise they can enable oppo to get a death grip on the game through instant speed shatters, feeding their graveyard for ECD and phasing out key creatures. I go down on a Vivian because phase out can really make her awkward but she’s still your best anti-shatter turn 4 play. SIDEBOARD QUICK REFERENCE: Temur Rec IN – 3x Ram through (for ambusher) 1x Garruk’s Harbinger, 2x questing beast, 4x shifting ceratops. 1x Scooze OUT – 2x Nissa, 2x Henge, 4x Primal Might, 3x Vivien Bant Ramp IN –1x Garruk’s Harbinger, 2x questing beast, 4x shifting ceratops. OUT – 2x Nissa, 2x Henge, 3x Vivien Sultai Ramp IN –1x Garruk’s Harbinger, 2x questing beast, 4x shifting ceratops 1x ooze. OUT – 2x Nissa, 2x Henge, 3x Vivien 1x troll Rakdos Sac IN – 3x ram through, 2x titanic brawl 1x scooze 2x questing beast OUT – 2x Nissa, 2viv, 4x Growth-Chamber Guardian Mono-Green standard list IN – 3x ram through 2x questing beast 1x Garruk’s Harbinger OUT – 2 scooze, 2 barkhide troll, 1 forest, 1 stonecoil serpent Mono-red IN – 3x ram through, 2x titanic brawl OUT – 2x Nissa, 2x Garruk’s Harbinger, 1x land u/WYorion IN: 1x Garruk’s Harbinger, 2x QB, 3x Shifting Ceratops OUT: 1xHenge, 1x Vivien, 4x Primal Might EDIT: The chat has won and I have added 2 castle's to the main! I haven't played the list with them, but the arguments for the include have been very compelling. I'm also testing two blast zones in the side instead of the 2 destiny spinners to try to improve the rakdos m/u.
Element: Wind Type: Artes Role: Debuffer Overview: Yuna finally gets her unit release and she’s… almost a carbon copy of Ludger. Stat-wise, she comes with high HP and DEF, but an atrocious ATK stat (lowest among SSRs) (30,000 HP | 1,950 ATK | 3,000 DEF). Bulk is pretty on point, so she’s quite resilient, but don’t expect her to be dishing out any meaningful damage. Her awakening skill provides an unrestricted +6% DEF buff to allies, alongside a +16% ATK to wind units at 20 hits. Once again a split skill, but with more of an offensive focus. 6% DEF feels really shitty compared to the standard 10%, but the ATK buff is very nice for your Wind team. As far as skills go,
100% Chance to Decrease 10% ATK for 2 Turns
100% Chance to Decrease 10% DEFfor 2 Turns
As you can see, this is almost identical to Ludger’s skillset, with some minor differences in hitcount and an increase in the ATK break (5% -> 10%). These skills have below average modifiers and, coupled with Yuna’s low ATK, are solely meant as debuffs. Her Mystic Arte completes the kit as a 250% -> 350%, 8 -> 9 Hit ST skill, costing 190 OL. Once again very similar to Ludger in terms of modifiers, with reduced hitcount, but 30 less OL as well. 190 leads to a guaranteed turn 3 cast on Water raids, but she’s 12 OL shy on off-elements with the bonus from her ascension board, meaning she requires some assistance to achieve consistency. So basically we have a consistent debuffer that can also output an okay amount of hits (16~17) during break turns, with no investment required on Water and with a simple OL stone everywhere else. Elemental Context: Wind is becoming a packed element, with 3 new SSRs released aside from the initial cast. That said, there are no debuffers that fulfil the same role as Yuna there yet, so she’ll definitely have her niche. While her ATK is lower, we know Ludger is used, even outside of his element, so it’s not too farfetched to say that Yuna will be used, at least on Water content. That said, I’m still sceptical, simply because I don’t think the low hitcount and terrible ATK is worth a slot over other dedicated debuffers or better hitgens, even if off-element. That said, we get a free SR copy from story, with her memoria also available for shard exchange. This actually makes her free copy better than the SSR version, since you can instantly MLB her and make use of her great wind dmg boosting passive on the backline. Off-Element Context: The only situation I see someone using SSR Yuna over Ludger is if they don’t have Ludger themselves. 74% higher base ATK, with marginal bulk reduction; a typing that is usable in all raids without penalty and a more well-defined awakening skill. And it’s not even just Ludger, really. S.Rutee does a much better job at offensive debuffing and will likely contribute more to the team in terms of damage as well (if you don’t have Yuna’s passive unlocked). Currently there are no real reasons to need the ATK debuff. Memoria Stone: If you thought the Ludger comparison was over, I got some news for ya lmao. Yuna stone has the exact same effect, giving 10% -> 20% Evasion with no restrictions, but with a defensive stat focus: double the HP, half the ATK, same DEF (16,000 HP | 650 ATK | 1,250 DEF). Evasion stones are very powerful survivability tools, especially in arena. Denying not only damage, but also OL gain from a miss can significantly change tides of battle, but it obviously come at the cost of other effects. For everywhere else, Evasion is still a tricky mechanic to evaluate. In raids, you’re much better off using strictly damaging or consistency stones (namely CritDamage and OL gain) because your main goal is to reach 25k contribution as fast as possible when aiding. On Tower it has a better case for itself, but it also has more competition vs straight bulk stones or even OL gains again.
Should You Pull?
Yuna is almost exactly like a Wind Ludger, but with 45% less ATK in trade for some extra bulk and a better ATK break. Ludger is considered a good unit because he can not only debuff on raids, but also contribute to your team’s damage, aside from having a neutral element. Ludger is used in raids, so Yuna will also find a home, if you want to use her. That said, the free SR version is significantly more attractive for everyone but whales, as the value of her awakening skill more than compensates for the lack of an MA, as she won’t output relevant damage regardless. This is an extremely safe skip, even if you like the assets, as you’re getting the SR version for free anyway. If you’re considering doing a few multies, do yourself a favor… don’t.
AEW DARK - (with spoilers) - Review and Observations
My first Reddit post here. Thought I'd write a review and observations column on Tuesday's AEW Dark. I will try to post similar for AEW programming in future (BTE, DYNAMITE, PPVs). Enjoy. AEW DARK - Tue., Aug. 18, 2020 Smart programming to give fans some top notch action on Dark this week as Dynamite won't be seen until 6pm Saturday. Show ran approximately 1 hour 40 minutes (11 matches), and there was some well performed action throughout the card. BROADCAST TEAM - Tony Chiavone, Taz, veda Scott
Kip Sabian vs. Michael Nakazawa
FINISH - Corkscrew DDT off the rope. Sabian sat down on Nakazawa's chest, (leaving both shoulders exposed) for the pin. I know it's a small thing, especially in a squash match, but I believe a winning pin should LOOK like a winning pin (shoulders pressed down). In this case, to be fair to Sabian, he preceded the finishing move with a well executed DDT in the middle of the ring. So, it is believable he knocked Nakazawa so silly with both headshots that he would lay flat. In general though, Sabian and his girlfriend, Penelope Ford are both guilty of slack pin attempts with their finishers. Ford's Fisherman's Buster arched-back suplex looks great, but also leaves one opponent shoulder completely uncovered. If it looks so easy to raise your shoulder off the mat (even though the loser doesn't dare), it's not a believable pin to WIN a match. Go back to MJF's squash match with Griff Garrison a few weeks back on Dynamite. After he planted Garrison with a mid-rope DDT, his pin to win was technical and believable. He pressed his chest down on Griff's, his two hands clasped to hold down the right shoulder, while his right leg pressed down on the left shoulder. It LOOKED like a winning pin. And he did it so instinctively that I applauded his attention to detail. Sabian and Ford should adopt a similar outlook on win-pinning for when they get their big push in future. 2) Sonny Kiss & Joey Janela vs. Shawn Dean & Frank Stone Good match to watch, especially when I wasn't expecting a whole lot. Janela's fierce outlook on his matches always jumps off the screen to me. His angry grunts, and expressions get you into his matches if nothing else interests you. He sells Frank Stone's bodysplash in the corner really well. Take a look a the ringpost camera angle on the inset replay. Watch Janela's facial expression right after Stone delivers the bump - classic! FINISH - Combination elbow drop (Janela) and leg split drop from the top rope (Kiss). Acrobatic and enjoyable to watch, but still think Sonny's leg split drop doesn't LOOK powerful enough to hold down an opponent for the win. Especially when early in the match, Kiss tries to pin Dean with a smothering cross body chest down pin. With his leg drop, he leaves the opponent's one shoulder exposed. But the loser has to lay flat submissively to sell it while Kiss is posed, arms flared out above him. For Janela/Kiss, both moves together look great, but more force is needed on the actual pin to win. PROMO FOR ALL OUT - MJF's rant from his campaign speech a couple of weeks ago sounds even better as part of the promo for the upcoming PPV. "For the next 25 years!" You realize how well written and delivered that speech was at the time. Love it! 3) Shawn Spears vs. Will Hobbs Spears dictated most of the match from the outset. Masterful and believable attack on Hobbs' leg played well into his opponent's one offensive moment. Hobbs hit a late-match spinebuster (unexpected!). But his affected leg prevented him from getting a pin started quickly, so Spears did kick out at 2. Then when Hobbs was about to follow that up with a brainbuster it appeared, his leg gave out a little and Spears fell back off him and stomped his leg again from behind. Well played out match that way as it immediately led to Spears hitting a technical Death Valley Driver for the pin. POST MATCH - Spears continues to belatedly attack his beaten opponent with unnecessary force. He rams the damaged leg of Hobbs into the ring post, and flips him the bird! The second bump came at the behest of manager Tully Blanchard. Blanchard gives Spears the foreign object ("could be kevlar" - thanks Taz!). He loads the infamous black glove and punches Hobbs hard with it. This is a minor storyline advancement, but helps the buildup to a rumored reimagining of a modern day Four Horsemen stable. All in all, another well thought out and delivered effort. 4) The Hybrid 2 vs. The Initiative (Brandon Cutler & Peter Avalon) COMMENTARY MOMENT - Discussing CutleAvalon as a team: -Veda Scott: "I think Avalon and Cutler are coming together as a team. They have very different philosophies on how to win a match." -Taz: "Well, they don't win matches. They have to CHANGE their philosophy." LOL Fun, athletic match between these two teams. Great sell job by Jack Evans (from the heavens!) on Cutler's spin kick right after he flipped into the ring for the first time. He really hit the mat hard, eh?! They followed this up with an eleven "near-fall" sequence of pinfall attempts that almost left referee Rick Knox breathless. All three men did a great job during this 30-45 second exchange! Well executed guys! Avalon again wants to use his book to club Evans, but Cutler intervenes and tells him not to, so he puts the book down. Will this ultimately help strengthen or destroy our favorite DARK characters? COMMENTARY MOMENT - Angelico's mid-match limb tie-up of Avalon almost left the whole broadcast team speechless. Scott, "What the heck was that?" Taz tries to name it by saying, "it was kinda an inverted, rising, Scorpion death lock". Tony, "We have to come up with a name for that. Or check with Angelico after the match." Good reactions on the mic from all three in the booth. During Cutler's offensive spurt moments later, Angelico really sells the toss over the rope and hard landing on the entrance ramp! He got high up there, huh? Whoa! Avalon/Cutler proceed to run some tandem offence, ending with Cutler's elbow drop from the middle of the top rope. Unfortunatey his feet touched the ground before he could really extend his elbow out for the bump. He usually hits it flawlessly, but that's life. Whenever they do win a match, their finishing double-team acrobatics will make the audience pop. They do have good chemistry. But so do TH2, and they all showed some super tandem offence tonight too. Evans' top rope moonsault to outside the ring was super. Leva Bates' hurricanrana on and unsuspecting Evans' moments later was delievered powerfully! Cutler catching a leaping Angelico in mid-air (almost lost him!) and delivered a front-stabbing gutbuster (or as Taz remarked, "Lungblower Jones" there - thanks Taz!). That setup Avalon's split-leg moonsault off the top turnbuckle and near pinfall! Soon thereafter, Angelico throw's Avalon into the corner, Razor's Edge style. FINISH - Evans (from the heavens!) executes his somersaulting frogsplash for the pin. Great, great match! Did you notice the stage lighting behind the ring stayed green throughout? That's probably due to TH2's green colored imaging and ring attire. See what they did there? Applause for attention to detail. 5) Abadon vs. Red Velvet Abadon once again displayed her terrifying persona in grand fashion. You really feel the uneasiness in the venue from her opponent, to the referee, to the broadcast team not knowing what to make of her! Referee Bryce Remsberg really sells the fear angle, constantly putting up both hands and backing up each time he gets anywhere near Abadon! Red Velvet tries to dispell that myth quickly with a slick leg-split throat press against the bottom turnbuckle (followed by a cheeky smile-and-point closeup to the camera - gorgeous!). Abadon promptly gets back to her feet, with Red Velvet's foot still lodged in her neck, and shoves her off. This begins both of them screaming loudly as they try to outdo each other in that department. You feel like your watching a horror movie scene when Abadon flops down on all fours and begins to crawl toward her opponent. Red Velvet plays her part well by acting as we all would by crawling backward arms behind us as we never take our eyes off the creature stalking us! LOL Red Velvet has some chops. She has already wrestled Shida (quick loss, but it usually means they intend to use you more in future). And in this match, she displays enough offence, and does it well to believe she will get some kind of push soon. She does have to eat it badly though. Abadon does an arm twist faceplant on the apron after jumping off it to the lower floor. Ouch. Red Velvet's bump looks perfect for that move - well sold! FINISH - Abadon perches Red Velvet up into a reverse, spiderweb neck breaker (she calls it the Cemetery Driver) for the win. Solid move. Well performed match all around. I'm still scared. LOL 6) Dark Order (John “4” Silver, Colt Cabana & Alex “3” Reynolds) vs. D3, Ryzin, Faboo Andre Good to see Colt back on camera - I thought he was dead! He is on at the end of Monday's Being The Elite episode, but you only hear his voice while seeing his view via the camera. Was he really still alive? Or was this a dream? Thank goodness he's still alive. (wink) They keep showing Cabana "with" Dark Order, despite still not being "in" Dark Order. This match showed signs of this relationship deteriorating a little. Cabana starts the match as if he's in a singles match by himself, smiling always as he begins to run some of his repitoire of moves on Faboo Andre, then Ryzin. While whipping Rizin to the ropes, hoping to hit his double chest slap, Silver interupts momentum by hitting Ryzin in the back, dropping him to his knees before he can get to Cabana. Colt looks confused as Reynolds and Silver yell at him, with Silver (I'm 29 years old!) tags himself in. Silver continues to display some skilled offense in his matches. The way he fights his way out of the opponents corner, complete with spins and front kicks looks impressive. Cabana always refused to assist Reynolds and Silver with their shortcut tactics. He stops Reynolds from pressing down on D3's face when stuck in the ropes (while smiling). Then Silver tries to force D3's head down on the middle rope from the floor, and Cabana again interupts that to stop it. Dissension in the ranks is growing? Reynolds then tags Cabana in, but wants Colt to put his foot up on the turnbuckle so he can ram D3's head into it. Silver chides Cabana for not doing it. Cabana proceeds to clean house with his spinning armed "flip flop and fly" elbows to all three opponents. FINISH - Reynolds and Silver double underhook spinning suplex (looks like the Canadian Destroyer) on D3. Emphatic finisher well delivered. 7) Ricky Starks vs. Lee Johnson Starks cut a promo a little earlier in the show, still angry at Darby Allin for raking his back bloody with a thumbtacked skateboard a few weeks back. He vows to ruin Allin in upcoming days. Despite a slow start as Johnson hits some offense early, punctuated with a drop kick, Starks slowly takes command. At one point with Johnson flat on the mat, Starks faces camera, criss-crosses his arms to his chest and falls back (weakly) onto Johnson in a Coffin Drop style. Allin must be so mad! Then, after a thunderous open face slap to Johnson, Taz says, "You don't want to trade hands with Starks." Except, Johnson promptly returned the favor, hard! He followed that up with a series of slaps and punches that looked funny right after Taz made that declaration. FINISH - Starks planted Johnson with his rochambeau driver for the win. Solid. POST MATCH - Wardlow came out to remind Johnson that he wasn't wearing his MJF campaign pin and made Johnson put it on. Johnson has been marginalized in the last few weeks by MJF for not hanging a campaign poster level and getting in his shot during a hallway walk. Will MJF still get Johnson's vote before ALL OUT? Hmmm. 8) Santana & Ortiz vs. Baron Black & Tony Donati Relatively quick match compared to the others on the card. Proud and Powerful roughed up Baron Black and then Tony Donati in their traditional angry skilled manor. Black was able to get off a backstabber on Santana (surprised me). Other than that, the rough Inner Circle members dominated. FINISH - Combination Santana sit up power bomb on Donati, followed by a straight face kick by Santana. Ortiz pinned Donati 1-2-3. The best, the best, the best. Until Best Friends and Trent's Mom Sue get a hold of you! 9) Lance Archer vs. Jon Cruz & Jessy Sorensen Archer came out with Cruz already slung over his shoulder. I always get a kick out of that each week as he enters the ring. He proceeded to manhandle Sorensen while a dazed Cruz (great selling job by him) stumbled around and struggled to clear out the cobwebs. Funny moment was Archer setting up each man in opposite corners and running back and forth between both with heavy chest bumps. During his second bump, first on Cruz, ring post camera shot behind Cruz captures Archer running towards our living room. He quickly says smiling, "be right back" before turning to go back to splash Sorenson. Little things that you create for the audience I applaud. Made me smile. FINISH - EBD Claw on both Cruz (right hand) and Sorenson (left hand), repeatedly slamming their heads 3-times to the mat before dual-pinning both. Powerful win for a handicap match. POST MATCH - Jake Roberts teased us by appearing to set up to DDT Sorenson like he used to do to many back in his heyday. But he stopped and dropped his younger foe without incident, smiling devilishly at us as he did so. Cool little moment brought back good memories. 10) Dark Order Alan “5” Angels vs. Billy (Gunn Club) The size difference between these two in quite apparent from the get go, with Billy bossing most of the action. COMMENTARY MOMENT - Mid-match, as the broadcast crew tells us how Angels is a ringing endorsement for what joining Dark Order can do for a wrestler's fortunes, Taz lets off this beauty, "Tony, you should consider joining Dark Order. You need a LOT OF HELP." (Thanks Taz!) Despite his best efforts, Angels can't get much going against Billy, and gets stopped hard when Billy picks him up and spin slams him to the mat by the throat. Ouch. COMMENTARY MOMENT - Veda, "Nothing nice about that." Taz, under his breath, "I better start talking nice about Billy." LOL FINISH - Cobra Clutch power slam - decent. POST MATCH - Dark Order's Reynolds and Silver (he's 29 years old) run out and help Angels attack Billy. Son Austin Gunn races out with a steel chair to make Dark Order scatter. Getting up, Billy shouts, "What the hell? I'm an old man!" Caught me off guard, and got a laugh. 11) MAIN EVENT - Private Party / SCU vs. Lucha Brothers / Butcher & Blade This was a "pay-per-view" style 8-man tag match. Enough happened in this bout to not only provide great entertainment to watch, but also advance some storylines in advance of Dynamite. Acrobatics were at the forefront throughout as all eight wrestlers displayed well-timed bumps. Isiah Kassidy of Private Party is showing each week that he is not only talented on offence, but also when selling on defence. He sells well, and he did take a lot of punishment in this match. Examples include his four pelvic thrusts into the mat after being faceplanted by Pentagon, and giving some good "ow ow ow" pain reactions (a la Nature Boy Ric Flair) when tied up on the ropes in the wrong corner during a camera closeup. For the other team, the Blade (Braxton Sutter) was also selling well. When Kassidy pretty much overshot his over-the-rope somersault by barely grazing Blade's stomach with his head, Sutter sold the intended force of the hit well to help out his rival. COMMENTARY MOMENT - The crew were discussing why Blade seems to always "look angry" lately in his matches. Veda, "Maybe a lack of carbs.". Slight pause, then Tony laughs, as did I. She was referencing Sutter's crazy physique, which is arguably the best in AEW. "Gets you a little hungry, a little hangry." And after eating a Fenix superkick by mistake (Kassidy ducked), Sutter fell out of the ring the way the force of the hit SOUNDED on the broadcast. Ouch! Then, he didn't reappear on camera while the other 7 men were sequentially superkicking and slamming each other around. After a while, I thought, "Is Blade dead?" LOL Luckily he came to in time to help Butcher double-team Kassidy. FINISH - Combination suplex (Butcher) on top of backstabber (Blade) all in one move. Butcher pinned Kassidy for the duke. Excellent quality, hectic match that was a deserving main event for sure. All eight men and referee Aubrey Edwards deserve a round of applause for their collective effort! POST MATCH - Understandibly, there was tension not only between the opponents, but also between the partners on the winning team. Fenix/Pentagon seemed upset that ButcheBlade got the pin without involving them. Blade was probably not happy Fenix mulekicked him into oblivion mid-match. And now these four must team up on Saturday night against Jurassic Express/Natural Nightmares in another 8-man tag bout. Safe to say this partnership could be headed to a fun divorce. Well performed show throughout by all talent. Can't wait till Saturday's Dynamite, can you? Me neither. I will try to do a writeup and post on Sunday.
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