Understand: what is quantitative trading? | BitcoinDynamic.com

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Welcome to /LivingWageCoin Try Living Wage Coin! Unlike other cryptocurrencies, Living Wage Coin has all the wonders of online currency that still retains the centralized structure and fiat manner of *successful* currencies like the US Dollar and the Euro!
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Bitcoin exchange Bibox launches quant tools with automatic investing service. The Trading Bot Zone offers a low-entry barrier to quantitative trading services. The first phase comes with tools including: automatic investing, grid trading, cross markets arbitrage.

submitted by jeffyal to Bibox [link] [comments]

Arbitrage Opportunities in Cryptocurrency Markets Tuesday, 10 July, 2018 #fintech #trading #algotrading #quantitative #quant #btc #bitcoin #crypto #fx

Arbitrage Opportunities in Cryptocurrency Markets Tuesday, 10 July, 2018 #fintech #trading #algotrading #quantitative #quant #btc #bitcoin #crypto #fx submitted by silahian to quant_hft [link] [comments]

A crypto trader setting up a hedge fund apologised for making so much money #fintech #trading #algotrading #quantitative #quant #crypto #btc #bitcoin #hedgefunds

A crypto trader setting up a hedge fund apologised for making so much money #fintech #trading #algotrading #quantitative #quant #crypto #btc #bitcoin #hedgefunds submitted by silahian to quant_hft [link] [comments]

StockSharp/StockSharp: Algorithmic trading and quantitative trading open source platform to develop trading robots (stock markets, forex, bitcoins and options).

submitted by TsukiZombina to coolgithubprojects [link] [comments]

How profitable is market making on different exchanges #fintech #trading #algotrading #quantitative #quant #crypto #cryptocurrency #btc $bitcoin

How profitable is market making on different exchanges #fintech #trading #algotrading #quantitative #quant #crypto #cryptocurrency #btc $bitcoin submitted by silahian to quant_hft [link] [comments]

Trojans targeting crypto exchanges and cryptomining malware among top cyber threats in Switzerland #fintech #trading #algotrading #quantitative #quant #crypto #bitcoin #finance #quants

Trojans targeting crypto exchanges and cryptomining malware among top cyber threats in Switzerland #fintech #trading #algotrading #quantitative #quant #crypto #bitcoin #finance #quants submitted by silahian to quant_hft [link] [comments]

Predicting Short-Term Bitcoin Price Fluctuations from Buy and Sell Orders #fintech #trading #algotrading #quantitative #quant #crypto #bitcoin #finance #quants

submitted by silahian to quant_hft [link] [comments]

Do Not Launch a Bitcoin or Cryptocurrency Exchange Built on Technology with Limitations #fintech #trading #algotrading #quantitative #quant #cryptocurrency #exchanges

submitted by silahian to quant_hft [link] [comments]

Quantitative Bitcoin and VC Trading

Hey everyone,
New bitcoin trader here, and so far I've noticed some pretty compelling arbitrage opportunities (generated mostly by liquidity constraints) on the various sovereign backed fiat currencies traded with bitcoin on several different exchanges. Additionally, there seems to be arbitrage between bitcoin exchanges as well. Any thoughts on arbitrage here on reddit?
As for quantitative technical trading (as value investing is out the window at this point for BTC), how accurately have previous traders noticed the same trends that exist in more established markets exist in the bitcoin market? (golden and death crosses, doji hammer reversals, bollinger band oversell/volatility analysis?)
Any thoughts/comments on either of these topics would be helpful.
Additionally, I'm trying to get a group to bounce trade ideas off, and would love to talk more specifically about BTC and specific arbitrages if people are interested.
I'm still working on getting BTC at the moment (I hate how illiquid the market is; 2-3 days to process the trade? c'mon...) but once I do, I'll make sure to keep y'all updated.
TL;DR: Arbitrage in BTC markets? Technical trading principles apply in BTC market? Talk to me pls and I make group soon for ppl to bounce trade ideas.
submitted by quackimawhale to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Recent "bull" run

I know this will get taken down but here goes. People need to be brought back down to reality right now. Unlimited quantitative easing, and basically unlimited printing of new USD. Trillions, of dollars, basically doubling and a half of our national debt. A short term solution that will kill the US economy long term, and I'm not saying next year, but in the next 5-10 years we will really start to feel it.
Bitcoin has been up, but joe schmo isn't buying bitcoin right now. At this point in time, bitcoin is a game, for the big players. It's like amateurs that legit think they could play pro in whatever sport you choose. They arent going to make it. Hodlers dont matter, because most hodlers have fractions of BTC, but hey, hodl hodl hodl.
Bitcoin isnt as decentralized as everyone thinks. Just because you own .05 of a bitcoin and think you are going to retire off of that, you need to rethink. True adoption of bitcoin wont and cant happen ever until this market crashes, and I mean crashes hard, to where even whales dont even want it anymore. If it's seriously the currency of the future, at this point, its ridiculously overpriced, and it won't ever happen.
Do you people honestly think that a Bitcoin trading at 50k or 100k is good for bitcoin right now, or even in the next 10 years? How does that make sense? It doesn't, those that do just want an easy retirement, and it's all hullabaloo. Think rationally.
submitted by BTCismyfather to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

LOEx Market Research Report on August 26: BTC market sentiment is bearish, testing the support point downward

LOEx Market Research Report on August 26: BTC market sentiment is bearish, testing the support point downward
[Today's Hot Tips]
1. [Researcher of Renmin University of China: The issuance of digital currency broadens the range of options for the original monetary policy]
According to People's Daily Online, Fan Zhiyong, a researcher at the National Institute of Development and Strategy, Renmin University of China, published an article demonstrating the importance of digital currency. He believes:
  1. The issuance of digital currency has broadened the range of options for the original monetary policy. If all physical currencies can be converted into digital currencies, this will make it possible for the central bank to break through the lower limit of zero interest rates and reduce nominal interest rates to negative. In addition, digital currency also provides a new quantitative easing tool. The central bank distributes the same amount of digital currency to every citizen in the form of free payment, which can directly bypass the inefficient financial market during the crisis and improve citizens' ability to consume and repay debts, making it easier to achieve the central bank’s monetary policy goal of stabilizing volatility.
  2. The digital currency can make monetary policy more transparent, which can enhance the effectiveness of the monetary transmission mechanism, reduce internal noise, and strengthen the stability of the system. By adopting the central bank's digital currency, the central bank can establish a fixed price level target specified by a specific price index, thereby providing a durable, credible and transparent nominal anchor for the economic system.
  3. The issuance of digital currency can solve the problem of the reduction of physical cash and bring some seigniorage to the central bank.
Fourth, digital currency can increase the stability of the financial system. From a technical point of view, digital currency allows residents, companies and non-bank financial institutions to directly settle with the central bank's digital currency. This can share part of the settlement functions of commercial banks and reduce the concentration of liquidity and credit risk in the payment system.
  1. The digital currency issued by the central bank can provide a truly risk-free alternative to bank deposits. The shift of residents from holding bank deposits to holding digital cash has reduced part of the demand for government guarantees for deposits and weakened a source of moral hazard in the financial system.
2. [Coinbit, South Korea’s third largest exchange, was seized by the police for alleged market manipulation]
According to Seoul Shinmun, Coinbit, South Korea’s third largest exchange, was seized and investigated by the South Korean police, and its chairman and operator were suspected of internal transactions and manipulation of market prices. It is reported that Coinbit ranks behind Bithumb and Upbit and is the third largest exchange in South Korea.
[Today's market analysis]
Bitcoin (BTC)BTC dropped to 11262 USDT in the morning and afternoon, and then rebounded slightly. It is currently oscillating around 11350 USDT. Most mainstream currencies fell. BTC is currently reporting 11352.6 USDT on LOEX Global, a drop of 0.61% in 24h.
Yesterday, BTC failed to initiate an effective rebound on the basis of standing at 11500. After a short rise to around 11650, it started a heavy decline in the market, and a large number of positions were sold for several hours until the early hours of this morning. The trend reached a strong support near 11000 and and gained a short-term stability. From the perspective of wave theory, since the currency price started the downward trend at 12,500, the 1-hour level is now coming out of the third wave of the three downward waves. Since the downward trend has only stabilized for a few hours, it is still unclear whether the third wave has passed. On the other hand, since 11000 is the strongest support since the currency price broke through 10500, it can also be regarded as the last line of defense in the bull market. If the market outlook continues to drop below this point, the probability means that the last wave of the three downward waves has not yet been reached. At the end, there may even be extended waves. On the other hand, if the intraday rebound can stand firm at 11400 or the second test of 11000 gains support again, it will increase the anticipation of bargaining to a certain extent, and a large number of shorts will turn to long. The market outlook says there is a possibility of testing to 12000. Investors need to pay attention to the effectiveness of the 11000 support and the 11400 resistance after the rebound starts. The price on the 26th moved below the three moving averages on the 5th, 10th, and 20th, and the price was relatively empty. If the 10-day moving average crosses the 20-day moving average, it will form a short position, which may trigger a further decline.
Operation suggestions:
Support level: the first support level is 11000 points, the second support level is 10400 integers;
Resistance level: the first resistance level is 11400 points, the second resistance level is 12000 points.
LOEx is registered in Seychelles. It is a global one-stop digital asset service platform with business distribution nodes in 20 regions around the world. It has been exempted from Seychelles and Singapore Monetary Authority (MAS) digital currency trading services. Provide services and secure encrypted digital currency trading environment for 2 million community members in 24 hours.
https://preview.redd.it/w8emk4q6dbj51.png?width=609&format=png&auto=webp&s=362f16361f8399839e934e7389b0079ababa91dd
submitted by LOEXCHANGE to loex [link] [comments]

The Truth about Bitcoin?

Part 1/4 - NSA Connection:
First off, the SHA-256 algorithm, which stands for Secure Hash Algorithm 256, is a member of the SHA-2 cryptographic hash functions designed by the NSA and first published in 2001.
SHA-256, like other hash functions, takes any input and produces an output (often called a hash) of fixed length. The output of a hashing algorithm such as SHA-256 will always be the same length - regardless of the input size. Specifically, the output is, as the name suggests, 256 bits.
Moreover, all outputs appear completely random and offer no information about the input that created it.
The Bitcoin Network utilises the SHA-256 algorithm for mining and the creation of new addresses.
Who is Satoshi Nakamoto? What does Satoshi Nakamoto mean?
Out of respect for their anonymity, it would be rude to speculate in a video about who Satoshi Nakamoto is likely to be. The reality is, it's not important. Let me explain: Any human being can be attacked. Jesus could come back from the dead, and there would be haters. Therefore, the Satoshi Nakamoto approach neutralises the natural human herd behaviour, exacerbated by the media, to attack and discredit. This is a very important part of Bitcoin's success thus far. Also, from a security perspective, those who wish to dox Satoshi Nakamoto in a video are essentially putting his, or her, or their, life at risk...for the sake of views.
As a genius who has produced an innovation not just from a technical perspective but also a monetary perspective, they should be treated with more respect than that.
As for the name Satoshi Nakamoto, I would speculate that it is a homage to Tatsuaki Okamoto and Satoshi Obana - two cryptographers from Japan. There is another reason for the name, but that...is confidential.
In 1996, the NSA's Cryptology Division of their Office of Information Security Research and Technology published a paper titled: "How to make a mint: The cryptography of anonymous electronic cash", first publishing it in an MIT mailing list and later, in 1997, in the American University Law Review. One of the researchers they referenced was Tatsuaki Okamoto.

Part 2/4 - 'Crypto Market':
Most of the crypto market is a scam.
By the way, this was predicted very early on in the Bitcoin Talk forums - check out this interaction from November 8th, 2010:
"if bitcoin really takes off I can see lots of get-rich-quick imitators coming on the scene: gitcoin, nitcoin, witcoin, titcoin, shitcoin...
Of course the cheap imitators will disappear as quickly as those 1990s "internet currencies", but lots of people will get burned along the way."
To which Bitcoin OG Gavin Andresen replies:
"I agree - we're in the Wild West days of open-source currency. I expect people will get burned by scams, imitators, ponzi schemes and price bubbles."
"I don't think there's a whole lot that can be done about scammers, imitators and ponzi schemes besides warning people to be careful with their money (whether dollars, euros or bitcoins)."
Now, on the one hand, lack of regulation is more meritocratic (as you don't have to be an accredited investor just to get access).
On the other hand, it means that crypto is, as Gavin said, a Wild West environment, with many cowboys in the Desert. Be careful.
This is the same with most online courses - particularly 'How to get rich quick' courses - however with crypto you have an exponential increase in the supply of victims during the bull cycles so it is particularly prevalent during those times.
In addition to this, leverage trading exchanges, which are no different to casinos, prey on naive retail traders who:
A) Think they can outsmart professional traders with actual risk management skills; and
B) Think they can outsmart the exchanges themselves who have an informational advantage as well as an incentive to chase stop losses and liquidate positions.

Part 3/4 - CBDCs:
The Fed and Central Banks around the world have printed themselves into a corner.
Quantitative easing was the band-aid for the Great Financial Crisis in 2008, and more recent events have propelled the rate of money printing to absurd levels.
This means that all currencies are in a race to zero - and it becomes a game of who can print more fiat faster.
The powers that be know that this fiat frenzy is unsustainable, and that more and more people are becoming aware that it is a debt based system, based on nothing.
The monetary system devised by bankers, for bankers, in 1913 on Jekyll Island and supercharged in 1971 is fairly archaic and also does not allow for meritocratic value transfer - fiat printing itself increases inequality.
They, obviously, know this (as it is by design).
The issue (for them) is that more and more people are starting to become aware of this.
Moving to a modernised monetary system will allow those who have rigged the rules of the game for the last Century to get away scot-free.
It will also pave the way for a new wealthy, and more tech literate, elite to emerge - again predicted in the Bitcoin Talk forums.
Now...back to the powers that be.
Bitcoin provides a natural transition to Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) and what I would describe as Finance 2.0, but what are the benefits of CBDCs for the state?
More control, easier tax collection, more flexibility in monetary policy (i.e. negative interest rates) and generally a more efficient monetary system.
This leads us to the kicker: which is the war on cash. The cashless society was a fantasy just a few years ago, however now it doesn't seem so far fetched. No comment.

Part 4/4 - Bitcoin:
What about Bitcoin?
Well, Bitcoin has incredibly strong network effects; it is the most powerful computer network in the World.
But what about Bitcoin's reputation?
Bankers hate it.
Warren Buffett hates it.
Precisely, and the public hates bankers.
Sure, the investing public respects Buffett, but the general public perception of anyone worth $73 billion is not exactly at all time highs right now amid record wealth inequality.
In the grand scheme of things, the market cap of Bitcoin is currently around $179 billion.
For example, the market cap of Gold is around $9 trillion, which is 50x the Market Cap of Bitcoin.
Money has certain characteristics.
In my opinion, what makes Bitcoin unique is the fact that it has a finite total supply (21 million) and a predictable supply schedule via the halving events every 4 years, which cut in half the rate at which new Bitcoin is released into circulation.
Clearly, with these properties, it seems likely that Bitcoin could act as a meaningful hedge against inflation.
One of the key strengths of Bitcoin is the fact that the Network is decentralised...
Many people don't know that PayPal originally wanted to create a global currency similar to crypto.
Overall, a speculative thesis would be the following:
Satoshi Nakamoto is one of the most important entities of the 21st Century, and will accelerate the next transition of the human race.
Trusted third parties are security holes.
Bitcoin is the catalyst for Finance 2.0, whereby value transfer is conducted in a more meritocratic and decentralised fashion.
In 1964, Russian astrophysicist Nikolai Kardashev designed the Kardashev Scale.
At the time, he was looking for signs of extraterrestrial life within cosmic signals.
The Scale has three categories, which are based on the amount of usable energy a civilisation has at its disposal, and the degree of space colonisation.
Generally, a Type 1 Civilisation has achieved mastery of its home planet (10^16W);
A Type 2 Civilisation has mastery over its solar system (10^26W);
and a Type 3 Civilisation has mastery over its Galaxy (10^36W).
We humans are a Type 0 Civilisation on this Scale.
Nonetheless, our exponential technological growth in the few decades indicates that we are somewhere between Type 0 and Type 1.
In fact, according to Carl Sagan's interpolated Kardashev Scale and recent global energy consumption, we are about 0.73.
Physicist Freeman Dyson estimated that within 200 years or so, we should attain Type 1 status.
As a technology that, through its decentralisation, links entities globally and makes value transfer between humans more efficient, Bitcoin could prove a key piece of our progression as a civilisation.
What are your thoughts?
Is it true...or false?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1oQLOqpP1ZM
submitted by financeoptimum to conspiracy [link] [comments]

MCS | The Record High Gold Price! What's going to happen to the price of Bitcoin, the digital gold?

MCS | The Record High Gold Price! What's going to happen to the price of Bitcoin, the digital gold?

\This post has been written by Hedgehog, an MCS influencer and one of Korea's famous cryptocurrency key opinion leaders.*

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#Be_a_Trader!

Greetings from MCS, the derivatives trading platform where traders ALWAYS come first.

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For the first time in history, the world gold price has topped $2,000 an ounce. Quantitative easing in major countries has brought astronomical amounts into the financial markets. In addition, Nasdaq is also setting a new high in anticipation of further economic stimulus agreements in the US this week.
Financial experts cite the followings for the main causes of the recent gold rally.
👉 First, experts analyze this intensification of the gold rally was caused by the stuttered US dollar rebound and the lowered US Treasury yield. In particular, as the US government's discussion on further economic stimulus measures to alleviate the global economic damage caused by COVID-19 from Wuhan, China is expected to come to an agreement this week, many speculate that this will lead to a drop in dollar value. Although the White House, Republicans, and Democrats have yet to narrow their views on additional stimulus measures prolonging the negotiation, it is very likely that the release of more dollars in the market, in the sense that everyone agrees on the need for additional stimulus, will relatively increase the value of gold.
👉 Second, some say that “the central banks in many countries will continue to buy gold to promote gold prices” referring to cases where central banks' buying of gold increased their gold prices during the 2009 global financial crisis.

"How high will the gold price go❓ "
Most experts believe that the gold price is still far from its limit. Especially, the Goldman Sachs Group is looking at $2,300 an ounce, Bank of America from $2,500 an ounce to up to $3,000 an ounce, and RBC Capital Market $3,000 an ounce.

https://preview.redd.it/vdk9z7251cf51.png?width=1308&format=png&auto=webp&s=057fc3749ebb69d881d5c0f1dbb35e8d075c7b89
The price of Bitcoin, also known as a safe digital asset, also remains in the $11,100 to $11,300 range ever since it recently broke the highest point of $12,000.

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Bitcoin, the No. 1 market capitalization among cryptocurrencies, has a market capitalization of approximately 200 billion USD as of August 5, 2020. This is more than the global stock valuations of Intel and Coca-Cola.

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A cryptocurrency media outlet, CoinDesk recently said that "Bitcoin recently hit a market high of $11,480, but there was a sign of buyer (buying force) fatigue in the technology chart. If the price falls below $11,000, it could retreat back to, before resistance now support, $10,500 (the highest point in February). However, if Bitcoin continues to settle above $11,400 on the time chart, it is highly likely that the rally will go above the latest high beyond $12,000".
I believe now that the value of gold, a famous safe asset, is the highest ever as the U.S. government has tentatively agreed to invest an additional $1 trillion in economic stimulus, the Bitcoin is also preparing to its rally again. I also think that since it is the post-halving period with the good news waiting in line including the Ethereum 2.0, we have enough momentum to rally more than $20,000 by the end of the year.

💡 "Nothing is permanent in this wicked world - not even our troubles." - Charlie Chaplin
All financial assets, including Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency leader, cannot be bullish forever. In the long run, they can gradually rise by stepping up the lowest price point, but there are a lot of ups and downs along the way. MCS traders can enjoy a bull market while preparing for a bear market on the one hand.

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On UPbit and Bithumb, the major cryptocurrency exchanges in Korea, one can profit in a bull market, but it is very difficult to realize profits in a bear market, nless you are a master of flipping,. As a result, many cryptocurrency traders will turn their attention to cryptocurrency derivatives exchanges in bear markets.
After a successful launch of the Bitcoin perpetual contract product, the trading market on MCS is vigorously moving. The perpetual contract, one of Bitcoin derivatives, can short sell (betting on price drop) in the bear market, making it easy to profit even if the full-fledged bear market starts. In addition, even in today's bull market, you can take long positions (betting on rising prices), and you can use leverage to amplify your investment beyond the assets managed you own, enabling very effective Bitcoin trading.
*If you use leverage, the risk is significantly higher, so please be cautious of the risk and trade safely.
I hope this post helped you to understand the pros and cons of Bitcoin perpetual contract better, and I really wish that you realize your financial freedom on MCS, a cryptocurrency derivatives trading platform!!
I am a Bitcoin margin trader, Hedgehog. Thank you for reading this post.

Traders ALWAYS come first on MCS.
Thank you.

MCS Website: https://mycoinstory.com/
MCS Official Twitter (EN): https://twitter.com/mycoinstory_mcs
MCS Official Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MyCoinStory.official
MCS Telegram Chat (EN): https://t.me/mycoinstory_EN
submitted by MyCoinStory to MyCoinStory [link] [comments]

The last 10 year of economic growth are bullshit

I will be discussing this article here.
I think one of the paragraph's in it, sums up what has been going on since 2008 and why we never actually recovered.
In effect, the nation has become dependent on its central bankers and their limited agenda (expand the wealth and power of the financial sector). The elected government and the real-world production of goods and services both have taken a back seat to conjured "wealth."
The economy of any nation can be divided up into 3 main sectors. Finance Sector, Industry and Manufacturing, Spending of the Average Population.
The US, which affects the entire world due to the dolarization of the planet, has been investing all of its resources into the financial sector, which benefits only people who already have ton's of money and/or people who are willing to take huge risks to speculate on "fake" growth.
The "economic growth" that our stocks and etc show, is all a fucking bubble. Unless you pulled out all your investments before 2008, you lost it all when the economy hit a "reset". Sure, you may say that its because of the housing bubble, but that caused the collapse of literally everything else. Now we live in an endless maze of bubbles that have been growing artificially through things like quantitative easing, printing more money, and again...printing more money.
Credit cards are being thrown at people who can't afford them. Car loans, house loans, loans for everything are so accessible in the US, its insane. Student loans especially are the biggest fucking bubble ever created (because first of all most of that money is going towards degrees that will never be productive to society).
The thing is, those people who have money, who have power, have been MILKING profits from speculative trading and the pretty much artificial finance sector. Literally anything that isn't a sell-able trade-able physical product is literally BULLSHIT, and it shows.
The US has printed HALF of its yearly GDP in just 2 months (March and April). By the end of the year it will print its entire GDP in cash or digital zeros tacked on to a 1. They just go into a computer and punch in some freaking numbers. How fair is that to the rest of the world, or even, its citizens! The 1,200$ stimulus check? You just got purchased into eternal slavery with that. That 1,200$ that is now worth 30% LESS than it did in 2019, BOUGHT YOU. Accepting these artificially created help from the government is contributing even more to the soon to be hyper inflation, except its going to be even worse than Germany in the 20's. Why? Because not only will we hyper inflate our currency, we are going to collapse the economy as we know it, making the entire finance sector worthless, causing exponential worthlessness of everything.
Just as the rewards of central-bank bubbles have not been evenly distributed, the pain created by the collapse of the bubbles won't be evenly distributed, either.
As the banks, wealthy, government, fed, etc swim in unlimited money to just BUY OUT (bail out) the economy and OWN everything, we are given 1,200$ that will be next to worthless. The rich are buying out every physical asset the can TODAY, while we are still living our life hoping things go back to normal, which it won't.
There really is no solution. If you buy gold, the government will simply confiscate it like in the great depression. You buy stocks? They will all hit 0 eventually. Cash? They will tell you to turn it in because they are already working on a Digital dollar to compete with china's digital currency. Bitcoin? They will declare it illegal because of some reason like it helps terrorists and launders money made by criminal organizations.
Good luck guys. If this is new info to you...this is the real red pill. You won't be having any time for women or sex.
submitted by when_its_too_late to menspotential [link] [comments]

AMA Announcement: Join Lennix Lai, the Director of Financial Markets of OKEx - a leading spot and derivatives cryptocurrency exchange. He will be taking your questions on June 16, 2020 at 10AM EST on /r/btc

Hello all, we have an interesting Ask Me Anything (AMA) coming up with OKEx which is one of the biggest and well-known cryptocurrency exchanges in the world. Currently, OKEx provides hundreds of token and futures trading pairs to help traders to optimize their strategy. It’s also one of the top digital asset exchanges by trading volume, serving millions of users in over 100 countries. According to CryptoCompare, OKEx topped derivatives market multiple times in trading volumes.
Ask Lennix anything about Bitcoin/Bitcoin Cash trading and mining experience, crypto spot and derivatives products, trading strategies or whatever crypto topic you want to address next week in his first AMA which he chose to have here on /btc.
Save the date - June 16, 2020 at 10AM EST and in local time zones:
Please ask any questions you have for the AMA below or you can ask them live during the event next week in the AMA thread when it gets posted. If you don’t know who Lennix is, you can read more about him in his bio below. Thanks.
Lennix Lai bio:
Lennix has over a decade of experience in the financial industry, specialized on high-frequency trading, DMA (Direct Market Access), asset management, front-to-back trading operation, risk management, and compliance. Now he plays a key role in product development, enhancing customer experience, and improving the platform of OKEx.
Before joining OKEx, Lennix served in JP Morgan and AIG and was the Responsible Officer of CASH Financial Services Group (00510.HK) who held full accountability on supervising regulatory activities defined by SFC. He managed a team of DMA specialists servicing global hedge funds, HFT, and quantitative CTAs, while also handling the relationship with major global exchanges.
You can check out Lennix's Twitter profile here: https://twitter.com/LennixOkex
submitted by BitcoinXio to btc [link] [comments]

The Truth about Bitcoin?

Part 1/4 - NSA Connection:
First off, the SHA-256 algorithm, which stands for Secure Hash Algorithm 256, is a member of the SHA-2 cryptographic hash functions designed by the NSA and first published in 2001.
SHA-256, like other hash functions, takes any input and produces an output (often called a hash) of fixed length. The output of a hashing algorithm such as SHA-256 will always be the same length - regardless of the input size. Specifically, the output is, as the name suggests, 256 bits.
Moreover, all outputs appear completely random and offer no information about the input that created it.
The Bitcoin Network utilises the SHA-256 algorithm for mining and the creation of new addresses.
Who is Satoshi Nakamoto? What does Satoshi Nakamoto mean?
Out of respect for their anonymity, it would be rude to speculate in a video about who Satoshi Nakamoto is likely to be. The reality is, it's not important. Let me explain: Any human being can be attacked. Jesus could come back from the dead, and there would be haters. Therefore, the Satoshi Nakamoto approach neutralises the natural human herd behaviour, exacerbated by the media, to attack and discredit. This is a very important part of Bitcoin's success thus far. Also, from a security perspective, those who wish to dox Satoshi Nakamoto in a video are essentially putting his, or her, or their, life at risk...for the sake of views.
As a genius who has produced an innovation not just from a technical perspective but also a monetary perspective, they should be treated with more respect than that.
As for the name Satoshi Nakamoto, I would speculate that it is a homage to Tatsuaki Okamoto and Satoshi Obana - two cryptographers from Japan. There is another reason for the name, but that...is confidential.
In 1996, the NSA's Cryptology Division of their Office of Information Security Research and Technology published a paper titled: "How to make a mint: The cryptography of anonymous electronic cash", first publishing it in an MIT mailing list and later, in 1997, in the American University Law Review. One of the researchers they referenced was Tatsuaki Okamoto.

Part 2/4 - 'Crypto Market':
Most of the crypto market is a scam.
By the way, this was predicted very early on in the Bitcoin Talk forums - check out this interaction from November 8th, 2010:
"if bitcoin really takes off I can see lots of get-rich-quick imitators coming on the scene: gitcoin, nitcoin, witcoin, titcoin, shitcoin...
Of course the cheap imitators will disappear as quickly as those 1990s "internet currencies", but lots of people will get burned along the way."
To which Bitcoin OG Gavin Andresen replies:
"I agree - we're in the Wild West days of open-source currency. I expect people will get burned by scams, imitators, ponzi schemes and price bubbles."
"I don't think there's a whole lot that can be done about scammers, imitators and ponzi schemes besides warning people to be careful with their money (whether dollars, euros or bitcoins)."
Now, on the one hand, lack of regulation is more meritocratic (as you don't have to be an accredited investor just to get access).
On the other hand, it means that crypto is, as Gavin said, a Wild West environment, with many cowboys in the Desert. Be careful.
This is the same with most online courses - particularly 'How to get rich quick' courses - however with crypto you have an exponential increase in the supply of victims during the bull cycles so it is particularly prevalent during those times.
In addition to this, leverage trading exchanges, which are no different to casinos, prey on naive retail traders who:
A) Think they can outsmart professional traders with actual risk management skills; and
B) Think they can outsmart the exchanges themselves who have an informational advantage as well as an incentive to chase stop losses and liquidate positions.

Part 3/4 - CBDCs:
The Fed and Central Banks around the world have printed themselves into a corner.
Quantitative easing was the band-aid for the Great Financial Crisis in 2008, and more recent events have propelled the rate of money printing to absurd levels.
This means that all currencies are in a race to zero - and it becomes a game of who can print more fiat faster.
The powers that be know that this fiat frenzy is unsustainable, and that more and more people are becoming aware that it is a debt based system, based on nothing.
The monetary system devised by bankers, for bankers, in 1913 on Jekyll Island and supercharged in 1971 is fairly archaic and also does not allow for meritocratic value transfer - fiat printing itself increases inequality.
They, obviously, know this (as it is by design).
The issue (for them) is that more and more people are starting to become aware of this.
Moving to a modernised monetary system will allow those who have rigged the rules of the game for the last Century to get away scot-free.
It will also pave the way for a new wealthy, and more tech literate, elite to emerge - again predicted in the Bitcoin Talk forums.
Now...back to the powers that be.
Bitcoin provides a natural transition to Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) and what I would describe as Finance 2.0, but what are the benefits of CBDCs for the state?
More control, easier tax collection, more flexibility in monetary policy (i.e. negative interest rates) and generally a more efficient monetary system.
This leads us to the kicker: which is the war on cash. The cashless society was a fantasy just a few years ago, however now it doesn't seem so far fetched. No comment.

Part 4/4 - Bitcoin:
What about Bitcoin?
Well, Bitcoin has incredibly strong network effects; it is the most powerful computer network in the World.
But what about Bitcoin's reputation?
Bankers hate it.
Warren Buffett hates it.
Precisely, and the public hates bankers.
Sure, the investing public respects Buffett, but the general public perception of anyone worth $73 billion is not exactly at all time highs right now amid record wealth inequality.
In the grand scheme of things, the market cap of Bitcoin is currently around $179 billion.
For example, the market cap of Gold is around $9 trillion, which is 50x the Market Cap of Bitcoin.
Money has certain characteristics.
In my opinion, what makes Bitcoin unique is the fact that it has a finite total supply (21 million) and a predictable supply schedule via the halving events every 4 years, which cut in half the rate at which new Bitcoin is released into circulation.
Clearly, with these properties, it seems likely that Bitcoin could act as a meaningful hedge against inflation.
One of the key strengths of Bitcoin is the fact that the Network is decentralised...
Many people don't know that PayPal originally wanted to create a global currency similar to crypto.
Overall, a speculative thesis would be the following:
Satoshi Nakamoto is one of the most important entities of the 21st Century, and will accelerate the next transition of the human race.
Trusted third parties are security holes.
Bitcoin is the catalyst for Finance 2.0, whereby value transfer is conducted in a more meritocratic and decentralised fashion.
In 1964, Russian astrophysicist Nikolai Kardashev designed the Kardashev Scale.
At the time, he was looking for signs of extraterrestrial life within cosmic signals.
The Scale has three categories, which are based on the amount of usable energy a civilisation has at its disposal, and the degree of space colonisation.
Generally, a Type 1 Civilisation has achieved mastery of its home planet (10^16W);
A Type 2 Civilisation has mastery over its solar system (10^26W);
and a Type 3 Civilisation has mastery over its Galaxy (10^36W).
We humans are a Type 0 Civilisation on this Scale.
Nonetheless, our exponential technological growth in the few decades indicates that we are somewhere between Type 0 and Type 1.
In fact, according to Carl Sagan's interpolated Kardashev Scale and recent global energy consumption, we are about 0.73.
Physicist Freeman Dyson estimated that within 200 years or so, we should attain Type 1 status.
As a technology that, through its decentralisation, links entities globally and makes value transfer between humans more efficient, Bitcoin could prove a key piece of our progression as a civilisation.
What are your thoughts?
Is it true...or false?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1oQLOqpP1ZM
submitted by financeoptimum to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Bitcoin Rush Review 2020

Bitcoin Rush Review 2020
If you're a crypto enthusiast or you trade actively within the cryptocurrency market, there are possibilities that you may have heard of Bitcoin Rush. It's a trading bot that claims to take traders’ average daily profit income to $150zero. Let us understand more concerning the bitcoin rush trading robot in this bitcoin rush review, thoroughly.

bitcoin rush review can cover virtually each information a trader needs to grasp before using this trading software, together with client service, deposit & withdrawals, and additional. Let us start!

bitcoin rush Review – Overview of Bitcoin Rush
What is that the Bitcoin Rush?
bitcoin rush is a Bitcoin trading software/trading platform for a trading robot built to bring ease and speed within the trading activities. bitcoin rush claims that an investor can earn an average profit of $150zero/day. If you last the internet and check its official web site, you will realize that the claim isn't an exaggeration. bitcoin rush review by nearly every investigator or analyst says that the claim is legit & the robot works well. However, one ought to not forget the danger involved in trading within the cryptocurrency market. Plus, the quantity of profit would additionally vary as per the experience of an investor.

Investors can build a minimum deposit of 250 (greenbacks) and begin trading (post-registration). It's forever suggested to start with a little quantity and increase the stakes as you get an idea of the market. bitcoin rush states that traders with a minimum deposit of $80zero will earn as high as $five hundred/day. Investors with a larger risk-taking capability and experience can deposit as abundant as $1k and can create $150zero/day. However, start little, for the relief, confidence, expertise the thrill of the sport & lose less. Master the broker you're using like bitcoin rush or any alternative trading robot.

Here is something you must apprehend about Bitcoin Rush:

It is vital to notice that bitcoin rush is a fully automated trading software. It means that anybody, who does not understand concerning trading technically can use it. Prior expertise in Bitcoin trading is not needed. However, trading is completed with a sole objective of earning more; hence, we tend to recommend investors to remain updated with the latest market happenings, analysis, carts, trends, etc. The additional updated you are, the higher trading selections you would take. Automated trading robots or trading software would be of nice facilitate when the market is most uncertain and volatility is high.

bitcoin rush Review – Features of Bitcoin Rush
Open Free Account
How does bitcoin rush Work?
What allows bitcoin rush to work as accurately as possible and assists you in claiming profits is its core style. The app leverages on trading knowledge received from multiple computer algorithms. These algorithms scrutinize Bitcoin markets, analyze every knowledge, combination and categorize the info to require out accurate details of the market trends. Humans are possible to lack in their ability to analyze vast knowledge from multiple markets within a restricted time. All of this is often done by bitcoin rush with lightning speed therefore that traders don't miss out on the opportunities..

bitcoin rush or alternative similar automated trading robots perform two types of research:

  1. Fundamental analysis involves analyzing qualitative knowledge such as news reports.

  1. Technical analysis takes care of quantitative like charts.

bitcoin rush algorithms bear each Bitcoin-connected data on the web and take trading selections accordingly. Call making and therefore the execution is completed by the trading platform itself. All the trader has to try and do is open and shut the trading sessions. Traders have to try and do these activities well.

bitcoin rush Review – How bitcoin rush Works?
Open Free Account
How to register with Bitcoin Rush?
It's straightforward and sleek to register yourself on Bitcoin Rush. The process is quick, secured, and seamless. The investor has got to register him/herself with the name, email address, and contact details. Though the software claims higher profits for investors on a median, it's always higher to start tiny and invest solely that a lot of that you'll be able to afford to lose.

One more factor regarding bitcoin rush that investors must recognize is, the trading platform does not serve folks from some countries. So, you need to check if you're allowed to use the platform.
n

The account creation process of the bitcoin rush is almost like any different automated trading platform. Aspiring traders have to go to the official site, fill all the desired details like name, email address, and phone variety. The robot will not ask for unwanted, unrelated, extra data. Therefore, you can feel assured there! As most of the scam platforms tend to ask something additional than required. Plus, bitcoin rush is Secured with an SSL certificate, that suggests that your information and cash is safe here.

Once the registration is complete, the investor has to make a minimum deposit to the account. Deposit of 250 (dollars) greenbacks is needed to permit investors to start out trading. bitcoin rush accepts multiple payment ways for receiving deposits like Maestro/Visa/MasterCard, Skrill, Wire/bank Transfer, Bitcoin payment, etc. Once the deposit is made, the software takes some hours to replicate on your dashboard. There aren't any charges for this method. Withdrawals from bitcoin rush are equally seamless, and traders can request them anytime. Again the process can demand at least twenty four hours to get mirrored in your accou



Another unique feature of the robot is Demo trading. Post depositing the initial amount, and before venturing into actual trading activities, investors will try Demo trading. This feature should be leveraged by everybody (beginner or professional) because the demo will inform you concerning the trading and also the platform too. You will perceive how to leverage bitcoin rush to facilitate live trading and make better profits.

Though bitcoin rush is an automatic trading platform, demo trading will provide you a judgment of opening and shutting trading sessions.

Live trading

As it is automated trading software, all traders have to do is open and close the trades, and withdraw the profits when needed. Traders can not need additional than fifteen-twenty minutes to watch daily trade activities and trends (with the help of the bot). It is instructed to open trade at the start of the day and shut it by the top of the day.

Though the method is automated (it can save your efforts and burden), during the time of the volatile market, maintaining a tally of the trend and staying updated can add a heap to your profit.

Plus, if you've got earned a profit, withdraw it as soon as doable. Never ever invest every penny of your profit, have a most of the number in liquid type.

Is bitcoin rush Legit?
Nearly each bitcoin rush review on the internet agrees with the actual fact that bitcoin rush is a legitimate Bitcoin trading platform. Bitcoin Rush, since its introduction to the market in 2013, has been serving traders quite well. The trading platform trusted by investors. Google reviews and bitcoin rush reviews out there on the internet says that the trading software is straightforward to use, operate, and helps in earning profit.

bitcoin rush also claims to work consistently with an accuracy of ninety nine.5percent. Traders state that they can create a profit in virtually each market condition with Bitcoin Rush. However, the share/volume of profit might vary as per the expertise, trade order, and volatility.

As way as the fees and commission are involved, it does not charge for using the software. However, traders could should pay a little proportion as a commission on the profits created.


bitcoin rush platform has return up with a tremendous system in terms of payouts. Customers are charged with a small commission on profits in Bitcoin Rush. If the system does not earn cash, the platform users do not earn. And vis-à-vis. This is often very assuring, credible, and reliable.

The verification system of the bitcoin rush is sturdy and intact. It assures the traders that every one the profiles using the platform are valid and true. This can be important for Bitcoin Rush, too, as it saves the platform from unwanted breach attempts, overall adding to the market name. The verification system of the bitcoin rush is speedier

There are not any hidden charges that traders need to face while trading on Bitcoin Rush. Traders only should pay a minimal commission amount to the platform post every deposit created for trading and profit.


If you check the official bitcoin rush website, you will see some reviews of the important-life bitcoin rush users. These folks have left positive reviews about the trading platform. One of the reviews talks about how bitcoin rush helps the trader to retire early and live all her dreams.

Another review talks regarding how the trading platform helped the trader to earn higher than $120zero daily, and he no more worries about the bank balance.

Overall the picture looks promising from customers’ points of read.

https://preview.redd.it/uab575gl5te51.png?width=382&format=png&auto=webp&s=0d5d65c4acb3a581209cdcc69ddc2557af0f5b13
submitted by cryptoerapro to u/cryptoerapro [link] [comments]

Thinking in Satoshi

Thinking in Satoshi
This tweet by @BlockWorksGroup saying, "There are 100,000,000 satoshis in a Bitcoin. Stack them while you can." alongside the reddit post by @SpaceDuckTech saying "there are 2,100,000,000,000,000 units of trade", that is, sats reminded me...
We've got to start thinking in satoshis.
We're already doing it to a degree. Several places are selling things denoted in sats. This is good. It avoids decimal confusion such as 0.00000375 BTC. It's much easier to say, "375 sats."
In part, this is why I've long pushed for sats as the default unit and for the "shi" symbol シ to represent it. See why use シ for sats? and Satoshi Day.
https://preview.redd.it/thf8r2n7ya351.jpg?width=314&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5725d33b37dd7f119e8eecc563bf7bbd1a869fd6
2,100,000,000,000,000 is 2.1 quadrillion. That may look like a lot. But hah! Don't think small. One million dollars used to be amazing. Now we talk in numbers like $2.5Billion or $1.3T. Understand, 2.1Q is nothing in terms of sats.
By comparison, consider USD pennies. The U.S. government magically fashions trillions of dollars out of thin air for every "crisis" that comes up, calling it "Quantitative Easing" or "QE." "BRRRRR," says the paper money printer. Since there are 100 pennies in every dollar, that's trillions of dollars multiplied TIMES 100. 2.1Q is nothing in terms of sats.
https://preview.redd.it/dow2mgq8ya351.jpg?width=595&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2c8c82857f9031066ee95873805e215db9ee3fab
In the U.S., we hear of QE1, and QE2, and QE3, and QE4, and...
Instead of QE,...
I suggest: 2.1Q
Do not be deceived, 2.1Q is small. One sat has value.
Watch it grow: Satoshi Day
submitted by crrdlx to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

The Truth about Bitcoin?

Part 1/4 - NSA Connection:
First off, the SHA-256 algorithm, which stands for Secure Hash Algorithm 256, is a member of the SHA-2 cryptographic hash functions designed by the NSA and first published in 2001.
SHA-256, like other hash functions, takes any input and produces an output (often called a hash) of fixed length. The output of a hashing algorithm such as SHA-256 will always be the same length - regardless of the input size. Specifically, the output is, as the name suggests, 256 bits.
Moreover, all outputs appear completely random and offer no information about the input that created it.
The Bitcoin Network utilises the SHA-256 algorithm for mining and the creation of new addresses.
Who is Satoshi Nakamoto? What does Satoshi Nakamoto mean?
Out of respect for their anonymity, it would be rude to speculate in a video about who Satoshi Nakamoto is likely to be. The reality is, it's not important. Let me explain: Any human being can be attacked. Jesus could come back from the dead, and there would be haters. Therefore, the Satoshi Nakamoto approach neutralises the natural human herd behaviour, exacerbated by the media, to attack and discredit. This is a very important part of Bitcoin's success thus far. Also, from a security perspective, those who wish to dox Satoshi Nakamoto in a video are essentially putting his, or her, or their, life at risk...for the sake of views.
As a genius who has produced an innovation not just from a technical perspective but also a monetary perspective, they should be treated with more respect than that.
As for the name Satoshi Nakamoto, I would speculate that it is a homage to Tatsuaki Okamoto and Satoshi Obana - two cryptographers from Japan. There is another reason for the name, but that...is confidential.
In 1996, the NSA's Cryptology Division of their Office of Information Security Research and Technology published a paper titled: "How to make a mint: The cryptography of anonymous electronic cash", first publishing it in an MIT mailing list and later, in 1997, in the American University Law Review. One of the researchers they referenced was Tatsuaki Okamoto.

Part 2/4 - 'Crypto Market':
Most of the crypto market is a scam.
By the way, this was predicted very early on in the Bitcoin Talk forums - check out this interaction from November 8th, 2010:
"if bitcoin really takes off I can see lots of get-rich-quick imitators coming on the scene: gitcoin, nitcoin, witcoin, titcoin, shitcoin...
Of course the cheap imitators will disappear as quickly as those 1990s "internet currencies", but lots of people will get burned along the way."
To which Bitcoin OG Gavin Andresen replies:
"I agree - we're in the Wild West days of open-source currency. I expect people will get burned by scams, imitators, ponzi schemes and price bubbles."
"I don't think there's a whole lot that can be done about scammers, imitators and ponzi schemes besides warning people to be careful with their money (whether dollars, euros or bitcoins)."
Now, on the one hand, lack of regulation is more meritocratic (as you don't have to be an accredited investor just to get access).
On the other hand, it means that crypto is, as Gavin said, a Wild West environment, with many cowboys in the Desert. Be careful.
This is the same with most online courses - particularly 'How to get rich quick' courses - however with crypto you have an exponential increase in the supply of victims during the bull cycles so it is particularly prevalent during those times.
In addition to this, leverage trading exchanges, which are no different to casinos, prey on naive retail traders who:
A) Think they can outsmart professional traders with actual risk management skills; and
B) Think they can outsmart the exchanges themselves who have an informational advantage as well as an incentive to chase stop losses and liquidate positions.

Part 3/4 - CBDCs:
The Fed and Central Banks around the world have printed themselves into a corner.
Quantitative easing was the band-aid for the Great Financial Crisis in 2008, and more recent events have propelled the rate of money printing to absurd levels.
This means that all currencies are in a race to zero - and it becomes a game of who can print more fiat faster.
The powers that be know that this fiat frenzy is unsustainable, and that more and more people are becoming aware that it is a debt based system, based on nothing.
The monetary system devised by bankers, for bankers, in 1913 on Jekyll Island and supercharged in 1971 is fairly archaic and also does not allow for meritocratic value transfer - fiat printing itself increases inequality.
They, obviously, know this (as it is by design).
The issue (for them) is that more and more people are starting to become aware of this.
Moving to a modernised monetary system will allow those who have rigged the rules of the game for the last Century to get away scot-free.
It will also pave the way for a new wealthy, and more tech literate, elite to emerge - again predicted in the Bitcoin Talk forums.
Now...back to the powers that be.
Bitcoin provides a natural transition to Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) and what I would describe as Finance 2.0, but what are the benefits of CBDCs for the state?
More control, easier tax collection, more flexibility in monetary policy (i.e. negative interest rates) and generally a more efficient monetary system.
This leads us to the kicker: which is the war on cash. The cashless society was a fantasy just a few years ago, however now it doesn't seem so far fetched. No comment.

Part 4/4 - Bitcoin:
What about Bitcoin?
Well, Bitcoin has incredibly strong network effects; it is the most powerful computer network in the World.
But what about Bitcoin's reputation?
Bankers hate it.
Warren Buffett hates it.
Precisely, and the public hates bankers.
Sure, the investing public respects Buffett, but the general public perception of anyone worth $73 billion is not exactly at all time highs right now amid record wealth inequality.
In the grand scheme of things, the market cap of Bitcoin is currently around $179 billion.
For example, the market cap of Gold is around $9 trillion, which is 50x the Market Cap of Bitcoin.
Money has certain characteristics.
In my opinion, what makes Bitcoin unique is the fact that it has a finite total supply (21 million) and a predictable supply schedule via the halving events every 4 years, which cut in half the rate at which new Bitcoin is released into circulation.
Clearly, with these properties, it seems likely that Bitcoin could act as a meaningful hedge against inflation.
One of the key strengths of Bitcoin is the fact that the Network is decentralised...
Many people don't know that PayPal originally wanted to create a global currency similar to crypto.
Overall, a speculative thesis would be the following:
Satoshi Nakamoto is one of the most important entities of the 21st Century, and will accelerate the next transition of the human race.
Trusted third parties are security holes.
Bitcoin is the catalyst for Finance 2.0, whereby value transfer is conducted in a more meritocratic and decentralised fashion.
In 1964, Russian astrophysicist Nikolai Kardashev designed the Kardashev Scale.
At the time, he was looking for signs of extraterrestrial life within cosmic signals.
The Scale has three categories, which are based on the amount of usable energy a civilisation has at its disposal, and the degree of space colonisation.
Generally, a Type 1 Civilisation has achieved mastery of its home planet (10^16W);
A Type 2 Civilisation has mastery over its solar system (10^26W);
and a Type 3 Civilisation has mastery over its Galaxy (10^36W).
We humans are a Type 0 Civilisation on this Scale.
Nonetheless, our exponential technological growth in the few decades indicates that we are somewhere between Type 0 and Type 1.
In fact, according to Carl Sagan's interpolated Kardashev Scale and recent global energy consumption, we are about 0.73.
Physicist Freeman Dyson estimated that within 200 years or so, we should attain Type 1 status.
As a technology that, through its decentralisation, links entities globally and makes value transfer between humans more efficient, Bitcoin could prove a key piece of our progression as a civilisation.
What are your thoughts?
Is it true...or false?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1oQLOqpP1ZM
submitted by financeoptimum to Money [link] [comments]

Increasing Presence Of High Frequency Trading In Crypto

fintech #trading #algotrading #quantitative #quant

Increasing Presence Of High Frequency Trading In Crypto Bitcoin’s 30-day volatility has fallen to 27.6% over the past 30 days, according to data from blockchain analytics firm intoTheBlock. "The cryptocurrency markets continue to stay eerily calm as volatility drops and traders continue to expect a big move," wrote Zack Voell in yesterday's market report for Coindesk. The prolonged period of low volatility price consolidation in bitcoin that we’ve witnessed in recent months is a result of an increasing presence of HFT firms in crypto in recent months as Bitcoin demonstrates increasing maturity as an asset class, according to James Banister, CEO, Market Synergy, a Zug-based infrastructure provider.
“From Jump to DRW, a lot of them [HFT firms] are diving in headfirst because of a lack of opportunities in the traditional high frequency, low latency trading,” said Frank Chaparro, News Director at The Block in a recent episode of The Sccop with Tarun Chitru, founder and CEO of Gau.....
Continue reading at: https://mondovisione.com/media-and-resources/news/increasing-presence-of-high-frequency-trading-in-crypto/
submitted by silahian to quant_hft [link] [comments]

Thoughts On The Market Series #1 - The New Normal?

Market Outlook: What to Make of This “New Normal”

By ****\*
March 16, 2020
After an incredibly volatile week – which finished with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rallying over 9% on Friday – I suppose my readers might expect me to be quite upbeat about the markets.
Unfortunately, I persist in my overall pessimistic outlook for stocks, and for the economy in general. Friday’s rally essentially negated Thursday’s sell-off, but I don’t expect it to be the start of a sustained turnaround.
We’re getting a taste of that this morning, with the Dow opening down around 7%.
This selloff is coming on the back of an emergency interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve of 100 basis points (to 0%-0.25%) on Sunday… along with the announcement of a new quantitative easing program of $700 billion. (I will write about this further over the next several days.)
As I have been writing for many weeks, the financial bubble – which the Fed created by pumping trillions of dollars into the financial system – has popped. It will take some time for the bubble to deflate to sustainable levels.
Today I’ll walk you through what’s going on in the markets and the economy… what I expect going forward and why… and what it means for us as traders. (You’ll see it’s not all bad news.)

Coronavirus’ Strain on the Global Economy

To start, let’s put things in perspective: This asset deflation was coming one way or another. Covid19 (or coronavirus) has simply accelerated the process.
Major retailers are closing, tourism is getting crushed, universities and schools are sending students home, conventions, sporting events, concerts, and other public gatherings have been cancelled, banks and other financial service firms are going largely virtual, and there has been a massive loss of wealth.
Restaurant data suggests that consumer demand is dropping sharply, and the global travel bans will only worsen the situation.
Commercial real estate is another sector that looks particularly vulnerable. We are almost certain to see a very sharp and pronounced economic slowdown here in the United States, and elsewhere. In fact, I expect a drop of at least 5% of GDP over the next two quarters, which is quite severe by any standard.
Sure, when this cycle is complete, there will be tremendous amounts of pent-up demand by consumers, but for the time being, the consumer is largely on the sidelines.
Of course, the problems aren’t just in the U.S. China’s numbers look awful. In fact, the government there may have to “massage” their numbers a bit to show a positive GDP in the first quarter. Europe’s numbers will also look dreadful, and South Korea’s economy has been hit badly.
All around the world, borders are being shut, all non-essential businesses are being closed, and people in multiple countries are facing a lockdown of historic proportions. The coronavirus is certainly having a powerful impact, and it looks certain that its impact will persist for a while.
Consider global tourism. It added almost $9 trillion to the global economy in 2018, and roughly 320 million jobs. This market is in serious trouble.
Fracking in the U.S. is another business sector that is in a desperate situation. Millions of jobs and tens of billions of loans are now in jeopardy.
The derivative businesses that this sector supports will be likewise devastated as companies are forced to reduce their workforces or shut down due to the collapse in oil prices. This sector’s suffering will probably force banks to book some big losses despite attempts by the government to support this industry.
In a similar way, the derivative businesses that are supported by the universities and colleges across America are going to really suffer.
There are nearly 20 million students in colleges across the U.S. When they go home for spring vacation and do not return, the effect on the local businesses that colleges and university populations support will be devastating.
What does this “new normal” mean going forward? Let’s take a look…

New Normal

The new normal may become increasingly unpleasant for us. We need to be ready to hunker down for quite some time.
Beyond that, the government needs to handle this crisis far better in the future.
The level of stupidity associated with the massive throngs of people trapped in major airports yesterday, for example, was almost unimaginable.
Instead of facilitating the reduction of social contact and halting the further spread of the coronavirus, the management of the crowds at the airports produced a perfect breeding ground for the spread of the virus.
My guess is that more draconian travel restrictions will be implemented soon, matching to some extent the measures taken across Europe.
This will in turn have a further dampening effect on economic activity in the U.S., putting more and more pressure on the Fed and the government to artificially support a rapidly weakening economy.
Where does this end up? It is too early to say, but a very safe bet is that we will have some months of sharply negative growth. Too many sectors of the economy are going to take a hit to expect anything else.
The Fed has already driven interest rates to zero. Will that help? Unlikely. In fact, as I mentioned at the beginning of this update, the markets are voting with a resounding NO.
The businesses that are most affected by the current economic situation will still suffer. Quantitative easing is hardly a cure-all. In fact, it has been one of the reasons that we have such a mess in our markets today.
The markets have become addicted to the easy money, so more of the same will have little or no impact. We will need real economic demand, not an easier monetary policy.
It won’t help support tourism, for example, or the other sectors getting smashed right now. The government will need to spend at least 5% of GDP, or roughly $1 trillion, to offset the weakness I see coming.
Is it surprising that the Fed and the government take emergency steps to try to stabilize economic growth? Not at all. This is essentially what they have been doing for a long time, so it is completely consistent with their playbook.
Next, I would anticipate the government implementing some massive public-works and infrastructure programs over the coming months. That would be very helpful, and almost certainly quite necessary.
But there’s a problem with this kind of intervention from the government…

What Happens When You Eliminate the Business Cycle

The Fed’s foolish attempt to eliminate business cycles is a significant contributing factor to the volatility we are currently experiencing.
Quantitative easing is nothing more than printing lots and lots of money to support a weak economy and give the appearance of growth and prosperity. In fact, it is a devaluation of the currency’s true buying power.
That in turn artificially drives up the prices of other assets, such as stocks, real estate and gold – but it does not create true wealth. That only comes with non-inflationary growth of goods and services and associated increases in economic output.
Inflation is the government’s way to keep people thinking they are doing better.
To that point: We have seen some traditional safe-haven assets getting destroyed during this time of risk aversion. That has certainly compounded the problems of many investors.
Gold is a great example. As the stock market got violently slammed, people were forced to come up with cash to support their losing positions. Gold became a short-term source of liquidity as people sold their gold holdings in somewhat dramatic fashion. It was one of the few holdings of many people that was not dramatically under water, so people sold it.
The move may have seemed perverse, particularly to people who bought gold as a safe-haven asset, but in times of crisis, all assets tend to become highly correlated, at least short term.
We saw a similar thing happen with long yen exposures and long Bitcoin exposures recently.
The dollar had its strongest one-day rally against the yen since November 2016 as people were forced to sell huge amounts of yen to generate liquidity. Many speculators had made some nice profits recently as the dollar dropped sharply from 112 to 101.30, but they have been forced to book whatever profits they had in this position. Again, this was due to massive losses elsewhere in their portfolios.
Is the yen’s sell-off complete? If it is not complete, it is probably at least close to an attractive level for Japanese investors to start buying yen against a basket of currencies. The major supplies of yen have largely been taken off the table for now.
For example, the yen had been a popular funding currency for “carry” plays. People were selling yen and buying higher-yielding currencies to earn the interest rate difference between the liability currency (yen) and the funding currency (for example, the U.S. dollar).
Carry plays are very unpopular in times of great uncertainty and volatility, however, so that supply of yen will be largely gone for quite some time. Plus, the yield advantage of currencies such as the U.S. dollar, Canadian dollar, and Australian dollar versus the yen is nearly gone.
In addition, at the end of the Japanese fiscal year , there is usually heavy demand for yen as Japanese corporations need to bring home a portion of their overseas holdings for balance sheet window dressing. I don’t expect that pressure to be different this year.
Just as the safe-haven assets of yen and gold got aggressively sold, Bitcoin also got hammered. It was driven by a similar theme – people had big losses and they needed to produce liquidity quickly. Selling Bitcoin became one of the sources of that liquidity.

Heavy Price Deflation Ahead

Overall, there is a chance that this scenario turns into something truly ugly, with sustained price deflation across many parts of the economy. We will certainly have price deflation in many sectors, at least on a temporary basis.
Why does that matter over the long term?
Price deflation is the most debilitating economic development in a society that is debt-laden – like the U.S. today. Prices of assets come down… and the debt becomes progressively bigger and bigger.
The balance sheet of oil company Chesapeake Energy is a classic example. It’s carrying almost $10 billion worth of debt… versus a market cap of only about $600 million. Talk about leverage! When the company had a market cap of $10 billion, that debt level didn’t appear so terrifying.
Although this is an extreme example for illustrative purposes, the massive debt loads of China would seem more and more frightening if we were to sink into flat or negative growth cycles for a while. The government’s resources are already being strained, and it can artificially support only so many failing companies.
The U.S. has gigantic levels of debt as well, but it has the advantage of being the world’s true hegemon, and the U.S. dollar is the world’s reserve currency. This creates a tremendous amount of leverage and power in financing its debt.
The U.S. has been able to impose its will on its trading partners to trade major commodities in dollars. This has created a constant demand for the dollar that offsets, to a large extent, the massive trade deficit that the U.S. runs.
For example, if a German company wants to buy oil, then it needs to hold dollars. This creates a constant demand for dollar assets.
In short, the dollar’s status as the true global reserve currency is far more important than most people realize. China does not hold this advantage.

What to Do Now

In terms of how to position ourselves going forward, I strongly recommend that people continue with a defensive attitude regarding stocks. There could be a lot more downside to come. Likewise, we could see some panic selling in other asset classes.
The best thing right now is to be liquid and patient, ready to pounce on special opportunities when they present themselves.
For sure, there will be some exceptional opportunities, but it is too early to commit ourselves to just one industry. These opportunities could come in diverse sectors such as commercial real estate, hospitality, travel and leisure, and others.
As for the forex markets, the volatility in the currencies is extreme, so we are a bit cautious.
I still like the yen as a safe-haven asset. I likewise still want to sell the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar, and the Canadian dollar as liability currencies.
Why? The Bank of Canada, the Reserve Bank of Australia, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand have all taken aggressive steps recently, slashing interest rates. These currencies are all weak, and they will get weaker.
Finding an ideal entry for a trade, however, is tricky. Therefore, we are being extra careful with our trading. We always prioritize the preservation of capital over generating profits, and we will continue with this premise.
At the same time, volatility in the markets is fantastic for traders. We expect many excellent opportunities to present themselves over the coming days and weeks as prices get driven to extreme levels and mispricings appear. So stay tuned.
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Where is Bitcoin Going and When?

Where is Bitcoin Going and When?

The Federal Reserve and the United States government are pumping extreme amounts of money into the economy, already totaling over $484 billion. They are doing so because it already had a goal to inflate the United States Dollar (USD) so that the market can continue to all-time highs. It has always had this goal. They do not care how much inflation goes up by now as we are going into a depression with the potential to totally crash the US economy forever. They believe the only way to save the market from going to zero or negative values is to inflate it so much that it cannot possibly crash that low. Even if the market does not dip that low, inflation serves the interest of powerful people.
The impending crash of the stock market has ramifications for Bitcoin, as, though there is no direct ongoing-correlation between the two, major movements in traditional markets will necessarily affect Bitcoin. According to the Blockchain Center’s Cryptocurrency Correlation Tool, Bitcoin is not correlated with the stock market. However, when major market movements occur, they send ripples throughout the financial ecosystem which necessary affect even ordinarily uncorrelated assets.
Therefore, Bitcoin will reach X price on X date after crashing to a price of X by X date.

Stock Market Crash

The Federal Reserve has caused some serious consternation with their release of ridiculous amounts of money in an attempt to buoy the economy. At face value, it does not seem to have any rationale or logic behind it other than keeping the economy afloat long enough for individuals to profit financially and politically. However, there is an underlying basis to what is going on which is important to understand in order to profit financially.
All markets are functionally price probing systems. They constantly undergo a price-discovery process. In a fiat system, money is an illusory and a fundamentally synthetic instrument with no intrinsic value – similar to Bitcoin. The primary difference between Bitcoin is the underlying technology which provides a slew of benefits that fiat does not. Fiat, however, has an advantage in being able to have the support of powerful nation-states which can use their might to insure the currency’s prosperity.
Traditional stock markets are composed of indices (pl. of index). Indices are non-trading market instruments which are essentially summaries of business values which comprise them. They are continuously recalculated throughout a trading day, and sometimes reflected through tradable instruments such as Exchange Traded Funds or Futures. Indices are weighted by market capitalizations of various businesses.
Price theory essentially states that when a market fails to take out a new low in a given range, it will have an objective to take out the high. When a market fails to take out a new high, it has an objective to make a new low. This is why price-time charts go up and down, as it does this on a second-by-second, minute-by-minute, day-by-day, and even century-by-century basis. Therefore, market indices will always return to some type of bull market as, once a true low is formed, the market will have a price objective to take out a new high outside of its’ given range – which is an all-time high. Instruments can only functionally fall to zero, whereas they can grow infinitely.
So, why inflate the economy so much?
Deflation is disastrous for central banks and markets as it raises the possibility of producing an overall price objective of zero or negative values. Therefore, under a fractional reserve system with a fiat currency managed by a central bank – the goal of the central bank is to depreciate the currency. The dollar is manipulated constantly with the intention of depreciating its’ value.
Central banks have a goal of continued inflated fiat values. They tend to ordinarily contain it at less than ten percent (10%) per annum in order for the psyche of the general populace to slowly adjust price increases. As such, the markets are divorced from any other logic. Economic policy is the maintenance of human egos, not catering to fundamental analysis. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is well-known not to be a measure of actual growth or output. It is a measure of increase in dollars processed. Banks seek to produce raising numbers which make society feel like it is growing economically, making people optimistic. To do so, the currency is inflated, though inflation itself does not actually increase growth. When society is optimistic, it spends and engages in business – resulting in actual growth. It also encourages people to take on credit and debts, creating more fictional fiat.
Inflation is necessary for markets to continue to reach new heights, generating positive emotional responses from the populace, encouraging spending, encouraging debt intake, further inflating the currency, and increasing the sale of government bonds. The fiat system only survives by generating more imaginary money on a regular basis.
Bitcoin investors may profit from this by realizing that stock investors as a whole always stand to profit from the market so long as it is managed by a central bank and does not collapse entirely. If those elements are filled, it has an unending price objective to raise to new heights. It also allows us to realize that this response indicates that the higher-ups believe that the economy could crash in entirety, and it may be wise for investors to have multiple well-thought-out exit strategies.

Economic Analysis of Bitcoin

The reason why the Fed is so aggressively inflating the economy is due to fears that it will collapse forever or never rebound. As such, coupled with a global depression, a huge demand will appear for a reserve currency which is fundamentally different than the previous system. Bitcoin, though a currency or asset, is also a market. It also undergoes a constant price-probing process. Unlike traditional markets, Bitcoin has the exact opposite goal. Bitcoin seeks to appreciate in value and not depreciate. This has a quite different affect in that Bitcoin could potentially become worthless and have a price objective of zero.
Bitcoin was created in 2008 by a now famous mysterious figure known as Satoshi Nakamoto and its’ open source code was released in 2009. It was the first decentralized cryptocurrency to utilize a novel protocol known as the blockchain. Up to one megabyte of data may be sent with each transaction. It is decentralized, anonymous, transparent, easy to set-up, and provides myriad other benefits. Bitcoin is not backed up by anything other than its’ own technology.
Bitcoin is can never be expected to collapse as a framework, even were it to become worthless. The stock market has the potential to collapse in entirety, whereas, as long as the internet exists, Bitcoin will be a functional system with a self-authenticating framework. That capacity to persist regardless of the actual price of Bitcoin and the deflationary nature of Bitcoin means that it has something which fiat does not – inherent value.
Bitcoin is based on a distributed database known as the “blockchain.” Blockchains are essentially decentralized virtual ledger books, replete with pages known as “blocks.” Each page in a ledger is composed of paragraph entries, which are the actual transactions in the block.
Blockchains store information in the form of numerical transactions, which are just numbers. We can consider these numbers digital assets, such as Bitcoin. The data in a blockchain is immutable and recorded only by consensus-based algorithms. Bitcoin is cryptographic and all transactions are direct, without intermediary, peer-to-peer.
Bitcoin does not require trust in a central bank. It requires trust on the technology behind it, which is open-source and may be evaluated by anyone at any time. Furthermore, it is impossible to manipulate as doing so would require all of the nodes in the network to be hacked at once – unlike the stock market which is manipulated by the government and “Market Makers”. Bitcoin is also private in that, though the ledge is openly distributed, it is encrypted. Bitcoin’s blockchain has one of the greatest redundancy and information disaster recovery systems ever developed.
Bitcoin has a distributed governance model in that it is controlled by its’ users. There is no need to trust a payment processor or bank, or even to pay fees to such entities. There are also no third-party fees for transaction processing. As the ledge is immutable and transparent it is never possible to change it – the data on the blockchain is permanent. The system is not easily susceptible to attacks as it is widely distributed. Furthermore, as users of Bitcoin have their private keys assigned to their transactions, they are virtually impossible to fake. No lengthy verification, reconciliation, nor clearing process exists with Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is based on a proof-of-work algorithm. Every transaction on the network has an associated mathetical “puzzle”. Computers known as miners compete to solve the complex cryptographic hash algorithm that comprises that puzzle. The solution is proof that the miner engaged in sufficient work. The puzzle is known as a nonce, a number used only once. There is only one major nonce at a time and it issues 12.5 Bitcoin. Once it is solved, the fact that the nonce has been solved is made public.
A block is mined on average of once every ten minutes. However, the blockchain checks every 2,016,000 minutes (approximately four years) if 201,600 blocks were mined. If it was faster, it increases difficulty by half, thereby deflating Bitcoin. If it was slower, it decreases, thereby inflating Bitcoin. It will continue to do this until zero Bitcoin are issued, projected at the year 2140. On the twelfth of May, 2020, the blockchain will halve the amount of Bitcoin issued when each nonce is guessed. When Bitcoin was first created, fifty were issued per block as a reward to miners. 6.25 BTC will be issued from that point on once each nonce is solved.
Unlike fiat, Bitcoin is a deflationary currency. As BTC becomes scarcer, demand for it will increase, also raising the price. In this, BTC is similar to gold. It is predictable in its’ output, unlike the USD, as it is based on a programmed supply. We can predict BTC’s deflation and inflation almost exactly, if not exactly. Only 21 million BTC will ever be produced, unless the entire network concedes to change the protocol – which is highly unlikely.
Some of the drawbacks to BTC include congestion. At peak congestion, it may take an entire day to process a Bitcoin transaction as only three to five transactions may be processed per second. Receiving priority on a payment may cost up to the equivalent of twenty dollars ($20). Bitcoin mining consumes enough energy in one day to power a single-family home for an entire week.

Trading or Investing?

The fundamental divide in trading revolves around the question of market structure. Many feel that the market operates totally randomly and its’ behavior cannot be predicted. For the purposes of this article, we will assume that the market has a structure, but that that structure is not perfect. That market structure naturally generates chart patterns as the market records prices in time. In order to determine when the stock market will crash, causing a major decline in BTC price, we will analyze an instrument, an exchange traded fund, which represents an index, as opposed to a particular stock. The price patterns of the various stocks in an index are effectively smoothed out. In doing so, a more technical picture arises. Perhaps the most popular of these is the SPDR S&P Standard and Poor 500 Exchange Traded Fund ($SPY).
In trading, little to no concern is given about value of underlying asset. We are concerned primarily about liquidity and trading ranges, which are the amount of value fluctuating on a short-term basis, as measured by volatility-implied trading ranges. Fundamental analysis plays a role, however markets often do not react to real-world factors in a logical fashion. Therefore, fundamental analysis is more appropriate for long-term investing.
The fundamental derivatives of a chart are time (x-axis) and price (y-axis). The primary technical indicator is price, as everything else is lagging in the past. Price represents current asking price and incorrectly implementing positions based on price is one of the biggest trading errors.
Markets and currencies ordinarily have noise, their tendency to back-and-fill, which must be filtered out for true pattern recognition. That noise does have a utility, however, in allowing traders second chances to enter favorable positions at slightly less favorable entry points. When you have any market with enough liquidity for historical data to record a pattern, then a structure can be divined. The market probes prices as part of an ongoing price-discovery process. Market technicians must sometimes look outside of the technical realm and use visual inspection to ascertain the relevance of certain patterns, using a qualitative eye that recognizes the underlying quantitative nature
Markets and instruments rise slower than they correct, however they rise much more than they fall. In the same vein, instruments can only fall to having no worth, whereas they could theoretically grow infinitely and have continued to grow over time. Money in a fiat system is illusory. It is a fundamentally synthetic instrument which has no intrinsic value. Hence, the recent seemingly illogical fluctuations in the market.
According to trade theory, the unending purpose of a market or instrument is to create and break price ranges according to the laws of supply and demand. We must determine when to trade based on each market inflection point as defined in price and in time as opposed to abandoning the trend (as the contrarian trading in this sub often does). Time and Price symmetry must be used to be in accordance with the trend. When coupled with a favorable risk to reward ratio, the ability to stay in the market for most of the defined time period, and adherence to risk management rules; the trader has a solid methodology for achieving considerable gains.
We will engage in a longer term market-oriented analysis to avoid any time-focused pressure. The Bitcoin market is open twenty-four-hours a day, so trading may be done when the individual is ready, without any pressing need to be constantly alert. Let alone, we can safely project months in advance with relatively high accuracy. Bitcoin is an asset which an individual can both trade and invest, however this article will be focused on trading due to the wide volatility in BTC prices over the short-term.

Technical Indicator Analysis of Bitcoin

Technical indicators are often considered self-fulfilling prophecies due to mass-market psychology gravitating towards certain common numbers yielded from them. They are also often discounted when it comes to BTC. That means a trader must be especially aware of these numbers as they can prognosticate market movements. Often, they are meaningless in the larger picture of things.
  • Volume – derived from the market itself, it is mostly irrelevant. The major problem with volume for stocks is that the US market open causes tremendous volume surges eradicating any intrinsic volume analysis. This does not occur with BTC, as it is open twenty-four-seven. At major highs and lows, the market is typically anemic. Most traders are not active at terminal discretes (peaks and troughs) because of levels of fear. Volume allows us confidence in time and price symmetry market inflection points, if we observe low volume at a foretold range of values. We can rationalize that an absolute discrete is usually only discovered and anticipated by very few traders. As the general market realizes it, a herd mentality will push the market in the direction favorable to defending it. Volume is also useful for swing trading, as chances for swing’s validity increases if an increase in volume is seen on and after the swing’s activation. Volume is steadily decreasing. Lows and highs are reached when volume is lower.
Therefore, due to the relatively high volume on the 12th of March, we can safely determine that a low for BTC was not reached.
  • VIX – Volatility Index, this technical indicator indicates level of fear by the amount of options-based “insurance” in portfolios. A low VIX environment, less than 20 for the S&P index, indicates a stable market with a possible uptrend. A high VIX, over 20, indicates a possible downtrend. VIX is essentially useless for BTC as BTC-based options do not exist. It allows us to predict the market low for $SPY, which will have an indirect impact on BTC in the short term, likely leading to the yearly low. However, it is equally important to see how VIX is changing over time, if it is decreasing or increasing, as that indicates increasing or decreasing fear. Low volatility allows high leverage without risk or rest. Occasionally, markets do rise with high VIX.
As VIX is unusually high, in the forties, we can be confident that a downtrend for the S&P 500 is imminent.
  • RSI (Relative Strength Index): The most important technical indicator, useful for determining highs and lows when time symmetry is not availing itself. Sometimes analysis of RSI can conflict in different time frames, easiest way to use it is when it is at extremes – either under 30 or over 70. Extremes can be used for filtering highs or lows based on time-and-price window calculations. Highly instructive as to major corrective clues and indicative of continued directional movement. Must determine if longer-term RSI values find support at same values as before. It is currently at 73.56.
  • Secondly, RSI may be used as a high or low filter, to observe the level that short-term RSI reaches in counter-trend corrections. Repetitions based on market movements based on RSI determine how long a trade should be held onto. Once a short term RSI reaches an extreme and stay there, the other RSI’s should gradually reach the same extremes. Once all RSI’s are at extreme highs, a trend confirmation should occur and RSI’s should drop to their midpoint.

Trend Definition Analysis of Bitcoin

Trend definition is highly powerful, cannot be understated. Knowledge of trend logic is enough to be a profitable trader, yet defining a trend is an arduous process. Multiple trends coexist across multiple time frames and across multiple market sectors. Like time structure, it makes the underlying price of the instrument irrelevant. Trend definitions cannot determine the validity of newly formed discretes. Trend becomes apparent when trades based in counter-trend inflection points continue to fail.
Downtrends are defined as an instrument making lower lows and lower highs that are recurrent, additive, qualified swing setups. Downtrends for all instruments are similar, except forex. They are fast and complete much quicker than uptrends. An average downtrend is 18 months, something which we will return to. An uptrend inception occurs when an instrument reaches a point where it fails to make a new low, then that low will be tested. After that, the instrument will either have a deep range retracement or it may take out the low slightly, resulting in a double-bottom. A swing must eventually form.
A simple way to roughly determine trend is to attempt to draw a line from three tops going upwards (uptrend) or a line from three bottoms going downwards (downtrend). It is not possible to correctly draw a downtrend line on the BTC chart, but it is possible to correctly draw an uptrend – indicating that the overall trend is downwards. The only mitigating factor is the impending stock market crash.

Time Symmetry Analysis of Bitcoin

Time is the movement from the past through the present into the future. It is a measurement in quantified intervals. In many ways, our perception of it is a human construct. It is more powerful than price as time may be utilized for a trade regardless of the market inflection point’s price. Were it possible to perfectly understand time, price would be totally irrelevant due to the predictive certainty time affords. Time structure is easier to learn than price, but much more difficult to apply with any accuracy. It is the hardest aspect of trading to learn, but also the most rewarding.
Humans do not have the ability to recognize every time window, however the ability to define market inflection points in terms of time is the single most powerful trading edge. Regardless, price should not be abandoned for time alone. Time structure analysis It is inherently flawed, as such the markets have a fail-safe, which is Price Structure. Even though Time is much more powerful, Price Structure should never be completely ignored. Time is the qualifier for Price and vice versa. Time can fail by tricking traders into counter-trend trading.
Time is a predestined trade quantifier, a filter to slow trades down, as it allows a trader to specifically focus on specific time windows and rest at others. It allows for quantitative measurements to reach deterministic values and is the primary qualifier for trends. Time structure should be utilized before price structure, and it is the primary trade criterion which requires support from price. We can see price structure on a chart, as areas of mathematical support or resistance, but we cannot see time structure.
Time may be used to tell us an exact point in the future where the market will inflect, after Price Theory has been fulfilled. In the present, price objectives based on price theory added to possible future times for market inflection points give us the exact time of market inflection points and price.
Time Structure is repetitions of time or inherent cycles of time, occurring in a methodical way to provide time windows which may be utilized for inflection points. They are not easily recognized and not easily defined by a price chart as measuring and observing time is very exact. Time structure is not a science, yet it does require precise measurements. Nothing is certain or definite. The critical question must be if a particular approach to time structure is currently lucrative or not.
We will measure it in intervals of 180 bars. Our goal is to determine time windows, when the market will react and when we should pay the most attention. By using time repetitions, the fact that market inflection points occurred at some point in the past and should, therefore, reoccur at some point in the future, we should obtain confidence as to when SPY will reach a market inflection point. Time repetitions are essentially the market’s memory. However, simply measuring the time between two points then trying to extrapolate into the future does not work. Measuring time is not the same as defining time repetitions. We will evaluate past sessions for market inflection points, whether discretes, qualified swings, or intra-range. Then records the times that the market has made highs or lows in a comparable time period to the future one seeks to trade in.
What follows is a time Histogram – A grouping of times which appear close together, then segregated based on that closeness. Time is aligned into combined histogram of repetitions and cycles, however cycles are irrelevant on a daily basis. If trading on an hourly basis, do not use hours.
  • Yearly Lows (last seven years): 1/1/13, 4/10/14, 1/15/15, 1/17/16, 1/1/17, 12/15/18, 2/6/19
  • Monthly Mode: 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 4, 12
  • Daily Mode: 1, 1, 6, 10, 15, 15, 17
  • Monthly Lows (for the last year): 3/12/20 (10:00pm), 2/28/20 (7:09am), 1/2/20 (8:09pm), 12/18/19 (8:00am), 11/25/19 (1:00am), 10/24/19 (2:59am), 9/30/19 (2:59am), 8/29,19 (4:00am), 7/17/19 (7:59am), 6/4/19 (5:59pm), 5/1/19 (12:00am), 4/1/19 (12:00am)
  • Daily Lows Mode for those Months: 1, 1, 2, 4, 12, 17, 18, 24, 25, 28, 29, 30
  • Hourly Lows Mode for those Months (Military time): 0100, 0200, 0200, 0400, 0700, 0700, 0800, 1200, 1200, 1700, 2000, 2200
  • Minute Lows Mode for those Months: 00, 00, 00, 00, 00, 00, 09, 09, 59, 59, 59, 59
  • Day of the Week Lows (last twenty-six weeks):
Weighted Times are repetitions which appears multiple times within the same list, observed and accentuated once divided into relevant sections of the histogram. They are important in the presently defined trading time period and are similar to a mathematical mode with respect to a series. Phased times are essentially periodical patterns in histograms, though they do not guarantee inflection points
Evaluating the yearly lows, we see that BTC tends to have its lows primarily at the beginning of every year, with a possibility of it being at the end of the year. Following the same methodology, we get the middle of the month as the likeliest day. However, evaluating the monthly lows for the past year, the beginning and end of the month are more likely for lows.
Therefore, we have two primary dates from our histogram.
1/1/21, 1/15/21, and 1/29/21
2:00am, 8:00am, 12:00pm, or 10:00pm
In fact, the high for this year was February the 14th, only thirty days off from our histogram calculations.
The 8.6-Year Armstrong-Princeton Global Economic Confidence model states that 2.15 year intervals occur between corrections, relevant highs and lows. 2.15 years from the all-time peak discrete is February 9, 2020 – a reasonably accurate depiction of the low for this year (which was on 3/12/20). (Taking only the Armstrong model into account, the next high should be Saturday, April 23, 2022). Therefore, the Armstrong model indicates that we have actually bottomed out for the year!
Bear markets cannot exist in perpetuity whereas bull markets can. Bear markets will eventually have price objectives of zero, whereas bull markets can increase to infinity. It can occur for individual market instruments, but not markets as a whole. Since bull markets are defined by low volatility, they also last longer. Once a bull market is indicated, the trader can remain in a long position until a new high is reached, then switch to shorts. The average bear market is eighteen months long, giving us a date of August 19th, 2021 for the end of this bear market – roughly speaking. They cannot be shorter than fifteen months for a central-bank controlled market, which does not apply to Bitcoin. (Otherwise, it would continue until Sunday, September 12, 2021.) However, we should expect Bitcoin to experience its’ exponential growth after the stock market re-enters a bull market.
Terry Laundy’s T-Theory implemented by measuring the time of an indicator from peak to trough, then using that to define a future time window. It is similar to an head-and-shoulders pattern in that it is the process of forming the right side from a synthetic technical indicator. If the indicator is making continued lows, then time is recalculated for defining the right side of the T. The date of the market inflection point may be a price or indicator inflection date, so it is not always exactly useful. It is better to make us aware of possible market inflection points, clustered with other data. It gives us an RSI low of May, 9th 2020.
The Bradley Cycle is coupled with volatility allows start dates for campaigns or put options as insurance in portfolios for stocks. However, it is also useful for predicting market moves instead of terminal dates for discretes. Using dates which correspond to discretes, we can see how those dates correspond with changes in VIX.
Therefore, our timeline looks like:
  • 2/14/20 – yearly high ($10372 USD)
  • 3/12/20 – yearly low thus far ($3858 USD)
  • 5/9/20 – T-Theory true yearly low (BTC between 4863 and 3569)
  • 5/26/20 – hashrate difficulty halvening
  • 11/14/20 – stock market low
  • 1/15/21 – yearly low for BTC, around $8528
  • 8/19/21 – end of stock bear market
  • 11/26/21 – eighteen months from halvening, average peak from halvenings (BTC begins rising from $3000 area to above $23,312)
  • 4/23/22 – all-time high
Taken from my blog: http://aliamin.info/2020/
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Fundamental, technical, quantitative analysis? Bitcoin Ethereum. WHY BITCOIN HALVING 2020 IS GROUNDBREAKING  Quantitative Easing  Bitcoin Leverage Done Right Leveraged Bitcoin Trading, Quant Trader Explains Market Action COINBASE TUTORIAL - [Buy and Sell BITCOIN EASILY!] - YouTube How to Trade Bitcoin

Bitcoin Swing Trading – Performance. There is no need to write a lot about the performance as everything is fine and the strategy continued to perform after it’s original publication in 2015. The shown numbers are for a 10.000USD account, trading only full bitcoins, no fractions. Pros and Cons of Quantitative Trading. If quantitative trading was correct 100% of the time, then every hedge fund in the world would only use quantitative analysis. Quant trading, like any trading strategy, is not perfect. Pros. Remove Emotion from Trading: Quantitative trading is all about numbers, inputs, mathematics, and formulas. A quant It’s a trading commodity just like everything else, and some of the same rules do still apply to it. Every notion that all of us had Bitcoin avoiding problems that affect mainstream financial assets should now have been laid to rest. And if you could eliminate the subjectivity of your trades and operate with a 100% objective strategy that would give you real profit prospects without having to analyze graphs and more graphs, it would be perfect, right? Good in today's video I will show you what quantitative trading is, why you should learn and how […] Chaotic trading marks new surge in bitcoin price. In one wild 20 minute period, the price of bitcoin soared $2,000 per coin to more than $19,000 only to drop to $15,000 on the Coinbase trading venue. – Financial Times, Dec 8th, 2017 . So to Bitcoin, which is undergoing a similar melt-up.

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Fundamental, technical, quantitative analysis? Bitcoin Ethereum.

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