How to read price action in cryptocurrency market

Classic Ether Market & Trading Discussion

Ethereum has forked and moved to a new chain. This sub is for the discussion of the Ethereum chain which didn't move the coins.
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Price Action Signals Third BTC Bull Cycle Beginning, Says Crypto Trading Giant Circle

Price Action Signals Third BTC Bull Cycle Beginning, Says Crypto Trading Giant Circle submitted by n4bb to CoinPath [link] [comments]

Coinbase Launches Crypto Trading Signals, Revealing Inside Look at Price Action

Coinbase Launches Crypto Trading Signals, Revealing Inside Look at Price Action submitted by n4bb to CoinPath [link] [comments]

HOW TO TRADE CRYPTOCURRENCY PROFITABLY 2018 | SIMPLE METHOD FOR TRADING CRYPTO USING PRICE ACTION

HOW TO TRADE CRYPTOCURRENCY PROFITABLY 2018 | SIMPLE METHOD FOR TRADING CRYPTO USING PRICE ACTION submitted by Rufflenator to 3bitcoins [link] [comments]

HOW TO TRADE CRYPTOCURRENCY PROFITABLY 2018 | SIMPLE METHOD FOR TRADING CRYPTO USING PRICE ACTION

HOW TO TRADE CRYPTOCURRENCY PROFITABLY 2018 | SIMPLE METHOD FOR TRADING CRYPTO USING PRICE ACTION submitted by ososru to Bitcoin4free [link] [comments]

So a friend and I recently launched a crypto newsletter: we curate the top stories of the day, summarize them in 400 characters news bites and email them to you once per day. No bias, trading or price action talk. fundamentals only. (latest issue in comments)

So a friend and I recently launched a crypto newsletter: we curate the top stories of the day, summarize them in 400 characters news bites and email them to you once per day. No bias, trading or price action talk. fundamentals only. (latest issue in comments) submitted by LebJR1991 to Monero [link] [comments]

Trading Crypto: Bitcoin Price Action Can't Figure Out What To Do With Competing Headlines

Trading Crypto: Bitcoin Price Action Can't Figure Out What To Do With Competing Headlines submitted by MellzorLovely to CryptoStock [link] [comments]

Golem Price Analysis: GNT Trading At Long-Term Pivotal Support Level — Can the Bulls Reverse Price Action From Here? https://goo.gl/XJiUmK - Crypto Insider Info - Whales's

Posted at: August 10, 2018 at 11:31AM
By:
Golem Price Analysis: GNT Trading At Long-Term Pivotal Support Level — Can the Bulls Reverse Price Action From Here? https://goo.gl/XJiUmK
Automate your Trading via Crypto Bot : https://ift.tt/2EU8PEX
Join Telegram Channel for FREE Crypto Bot: Crypto Signal
submitted by cryptotradingbot to cryptobots [link] [comments]

Crypto Trading - Musical Harmonics and Price Action | De Crypto Markets

Crypto Trading - Musical Harmonics and Price Action | De Crypto Markets submitted by forexlens to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Crypto Trading - Musical Harmonics and Price Action | De Crypto Markets

Crypto Trading - Musical Harmonics and Price Action | De Crypto Markets submitted by ABitcoinAllBot to BitcoinAll [link] [comments]

So a friend and I recently launched a crypto newsletter: we curate the top stories of the day, summarize them in 400 characters news bites and email them to you once per day. No bias, trading or price action talk. fundamentals only. (latest issue in comments)

submitted by LebJR1991 to siliconvalley [link] [comments]

So a friend and I recently launched a crypto newsletter: we curate the top stories of the day, summarize them in 400 characters news bites and email them to you once per day. No bias, trading or price action talk. fundamentals only. (latest issue in comments).

So a friend and I recently launched a crypto newsletter: we curate the top stories of the day, summarize them in 400 characters news bites and email them to you once per day. No bias, trading or price action talk. fundamentals only. (latest issue in comments). submitted by HiIAMCaptainObvious to BitcoinAll [link] [comments]

Bitcoin And Ethereum Daily Price Forecast – Legacy Crypto's Continue To Trade Positive As Price Action Hints At Consolidation Near Recent Highs - Yahoo! Finance News

Bitcoin And Ethereum Daily Price Forecast – Legacy Crypto's Continue To Trade Positive As Price Action Hints At Consolidation Near Recent Highs - Yahoo! Finance News submitted by ulros to fbitcoin [link] [comments]

Former investment bank FX trader: Risk management part 3/3

Former investment bank FX trader: Risk management part 3/3
Welcome to the third and final part of this chapter.
Thank you all for the 100s of comments and upvotes - maybe this post will take us above 1,000 for this topic!
Keep any feedback or questions coming in the replies below.
Before you read this note, please start with Part I and then Part II so it hangs together and makes sense.
Part III
  • Squeezes and other risks
  • Market positioning
  • Bet correlation
  • Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits

Squeezes and other risks

We are going to cover three common risks that traders face: events; squeezes, asymmetric bets.

Events

Economic releases can cause large short-term volatility. The most famous is Non Farm Payrolls, which is the most widely watched measure of US employment levels and affects the price of many instruments.On an NFP announcement currencies like EURUSD might jump (or drop) 100 pips no problem.
This is fine and there are trading strategies that one may employ around this but the key thing is to be aware of these releases.You can find economic calendars all over the internet - including on this site - and you need only check if there are any major releases each day or week.
For example, if you are trading off some intraday chart and scalping a few pips here and there it would be highly sensible to go into a known data release flat as it is pure coin-toss and not the reason for your trading. It only takes five minutes each day to plan for the day ahead so do not get caught out by this. Many retail traders get stopped out on such events when price volatility is at its peak.

Squeezes

Short squeezes bring a lot of danger and perhaps some opportunity.
The story of VW and Porsche is the best short squeeze ever. Throughout these articles we've used FX examples wherever possible but in this one instance the concept (which is also highly relevant in FX) is best illustrated with an historical lesson from a different asset class.
A short squeeze is when a participant ends up in a short position they are forced to cover. Especially when the rest of the market knows that this participant can be bullied into stopping out at terrible levels, provided the market can briefly drive the price into their pain zone.

There's a reason for the car, don't worry
Hedge funds had been shorting VW stock. However the amount of VW stock available to buy in the open market was actually quite limited. The local government owned a chunk and Porsche itself had bought and locked away around 30%. Neither of these would sell to the hedge-funds so a good amount of the stock was un-buyable at any price.
If you sell or short a stock you must be prepared to buy it back to go flat at some point.
To cut a long story short, Porsche bought a lot of call options on VW stock. These options gave them the right to purchase VW stock from banks at slightly above market price.
Eventually the banks who had sold these options realised there was no VW stock to go out and buy since the German government wouldn’t sell its allocation and Porsche wouldn’t either. If Porsche called in the options the banks were in trouble.
Porsche called in the options which forced the shorts to buy stock - at whatever price they could get it.
The price squeezed higher as those that were short got massively squeezed and stopped out. For one brief moment in 2008, VW was the world’s most valuable company. Shorts were burned hard.

Incredible event
Porsche apparently made $11.5 billion on the trade. The BBC described Porsche as “a hedge fund with a carmaker attached.”
If this all seems exotic then know that the same thing happens in FX all the time. If everyone in the market is talking about a key level in EURUSD being 1.2050 then you can bet the market will try to push through 1.2050 just to take out any short stops at that level. Whether it then rallies higher or fails and trades back lower is a different matter entirely.
This brings us on to the matter of crowded trades. We will look at positioning in more detail in the next section. Crowded trades are dangerous for PNL. If everyone believes EURUSD is going down and has already sold EURUSD then you run the risk of a short squeeze.
For additional selling to take place you need a very good reason for people to add to their position whereas a move in the other direction could force mass buying to cover their shorts.
A trading mentor when I worked at the investment bank once advised me:
Always think about which move would cause the maximum people the maximum pain. That move is precisely what you should be watching out for at all times.

Asymmetric losses

Also known as picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. This risk has caught out many a retail trader. Sometimes it is referred to as a "negative skew" strategy.
Ideally what you are looking for is asymmetric risk trade set-ups: that is where the downside is clearly defined and smaller than the upside. What you want to avoid is the opposite.
A famous example of this going wrong was the Swiss National Bank de-peg in 2012.
The Swiss National Bank had said they would defend the price of EURCHF so that it did not go below 1.2. Many people believed it could never go below 1.2 due to this. Many retail traders therefore opted for a strategy that some describe as ‘picking up pennies in front of a steam-roller’.
They would would buy EURCHF above the peg level and hope for a tiny rally of several pips before selling them back and keep doing this repeatedly. Often they were highly leveraged at 100:1 so that they could amplify the profit of the tiny 5-10 pip rally.
Then this happened.

Something that changed FX markets forever
The SNB suddenly did the unthinkable. They stopped defending the price. CHF jumped and so EURCHF (the number of CHF per 1 EUR) dropped to new lows very fast. Clearly, this trade had horrific risk : reward asymmetry: you risked 30% to make 0.05%.
Other strategies like naively selling options have the same result. You win a small amount of money each day and then spectacularly blow up at some point down the line.

Market positioning

We have talked about short squeezes. But how do you know what the market position is? And should you care?
Let’s start with the first. You should definitely care.
Let’s imagine the entire market is exceptionally long EURUSD and positioning reaches extreme levels. This makes EURUSD very vulnerable.
To keep the price going higher EURUSD needs to attract fresh buy orders. If everyone is already long and has no room to add, what can incentivise people to keep buying? The news flow might be good. They may believe EURUSD goes higher. But they have already bought and have their maximum position on.
On the flip side, if there’s an unexpected event and EURUSD gaps lower you will have the entire market trying to exit the position at the same time. Like a herd of cows running through a single doorway. Messy.
We are going to look at this in more detail in a later chapter, where we discuss ‘carry’ trades. For now this TRYJPY chart might provide some idea of what a rush to the exits of a crowded position looks like.

A carry trade position clear-out in action
Knowing if the market is currently at extreme levels of long or short can therefore be helpful.
The CFTC makes available a weekly report, which details the overall positions of speculative traders “Non Commercial Traders” in some of the major futures products. This includes futures tied to deliverable FX pairs such as EURUSD as well as products such as gold. The report is called “CFTC Commitments of Traders” ("COT").
This is a great benchmark. It is far more representative of the overall market than the proprietary ones offered by retail brokers as it covers a far larger cross-section of the institutional market.
Generally market participants will not pay a lot of attention to commercial hedgers, which are also detailed in the report. This data is worth tracking but these folks are simply hedging real-world transactions rather than speculating so their activity is far less revealing and far more noisy.
You can find the data online for free and download it directly here.

Raw format is kinda hard to work with

However, many websites will chart this for you free of charge and you may find it more convenient to look at it that way. Just google “CFTC positioning charts”.

But you can easily get visualisations
You can visually spot extreme positioning. It is extremely powerful.
Bear in mind the reports come out Friday afternoon US time and the report is a snapshot up to the prior Tuesday. That means it is a lagged report - by the time it is released it is a few days out of date. For longer term trades where you hold positions for weeks this is of course still pretty helpful information.
As well as the absolute level (is the speculative market net long or short) you can also use this to pick up on changes in positioning.
For example if bad news comes out how much does the net short increase? If good news comes out, the market may remain net short but how much did they buy back?
A lot of traders ask themselves “Does the market have this trade on?” The positioning data is a good method for answering this. It provides a good finger on the pulse of the wider market sentiment and activity.
For example you might say: “There was lots of noise about the good employment numbers in the US. However, there wasn’t actually a lot of position change on the back of it. Maybe everyone who wants to buy already has. What would happen now if bad news came out?”
In general traders will be wary of entering a crowded position because it will be hard to attract additional buyers or sellers and there could be an aggressive exit.
If you want to enter a trade that is showing extreme levels of positioning you must think carefully about this dynamic.

Bet correlation

Retail traders often drastically underestimate how correlated their bets are.
Through bitter experience, I have learned that a mistake in position correlation is the root of some of the most serious problems in trading. If you have eight highly correlated positions, then you are really trading one position that is eight times as large.
Bruce Kovner of hedge fund, Caxton Associates
For example, if you are trading a bunch of pairs against the USD you will end up with a simply huge USD exposure. A single USD-trigger can ruin all your bets. Your ideal scenario — and it isn’t always possible — would be to have a highly diversified portfolio of bets that do not move in tandem.
Look at this chart. Inverted USD index (DXY) is green. AUDUSD is orange. EURUSD is blue.

Chart from TradingView
So the whole thing is just one big USD trade! If you are long AUDUSD, long EURUSD, and short DXY you have three anti USD bets that are all likely to work or fail together.
The more diversified your portfolio of bets are, the more risk you can take on each.
There’s a really good video, explaining the benefits of diversification from Ray Dalio.
A systematic fund with access to an investable universe of 10,000 instruments has more opportunity to make a better risk-adjusted return than a trader who only focuses on three symbols. Diversification really is the closest thing to a free lunch in finance.
But let’s be pragmatic and realistic. Human retail traders don’t have capacity to run even one hundred bets at a time. More realistic would be an average of 2-3 trades on simultaneously. So what can be done?
For example:
  • You might diversify across time horizons by having a mix of short-term and long-term trades.
  • You might diversify across asset classes - trading some FX but also crypto and equities.
  • You might diversify your trade generation approach so you are not relying on the same indicators or drivers on each trade.
  • You might diversify your exposure to the market regime by having some trades that assume a trend will continue (momentum) and some that assume we will be range-bound (carry).
And so on. Basically you want to scan your portfolio of trades and make sure you are not putting all your eggs in one basket. If some trades underperform others will perform - assuming the bets are not correlated - and that way you can ensure your overall portfolio takes less risk per unit of return.
The key thing is to start thinking about a portfolio of bets and what each new trade offers to your existing portfolio of risk. Will it diversify or amplify a current exposure?

Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits

One common mistake is to get bored and restless and put on crap trades. This just means trades in which you have low conviction.
It is perfectly fine not to trade. If you feel like you do not understand the market at a particular point, simply choose not to trade.
Flat is a position.
Do not waste your bullets on rubbish trades. Only enter a trade when you have carefully considered it from all angles and feel good about the risk. This will make it far easier to hold onto the trade if it moves against you at any point. You actually believe in it.
Equally, you need to set monthly limits. A standard limit might be a 10% account balance stop per month. At that point you close all your positions immediately and stop trading till next month.

Be strict with yourself and walk away
Let’s assume you started the year with $100k and made 5% in January so enter Feb with $105k balance. Your stop is therefore 10% of $105k or $10.5k . If your account balance dips to $94.5k ($105k-$10.5k) then you stop yourself out and don’t resume trading till March the first.
Having monthly calendar breaks is nice for another reason. Say you made a load of money in January. You don’t want to start February feeling you are up 5% or it is too tempting to avoid trading all month and protect the existing win. Each month and each year should feel like a clean slate and an independent period.
Everyone has trading slumps. It is perfectly normal. It will definitely happen to you at some stage. The trick is to take a break and refocus. Conserve your capital by not trading a lot whilst you are on a losing streak. This period will be much harder for you emotionally and you’ll end up making suboptimal decisions. An enforced break will help you see the bigger picture.
Put in place a process before you start trading and then it’ll be easy to follow and will feel much less emotional. Remember: the market doesn’t care if you win or lose, it is nothing personal.
When your head has cooled and you feel calm you return the next month and begin the task of building back your account balance.

That's a wrap on risk management

Thanks for taking time to read this three-part chapter on risk management. I hope you enjoyed it. Do comment in the replies if you have any questions or feedback.
Remember: the most important part of trading is not making money. It is not losing money. Always start with that principle. I hope these three notes have provided some food for thought on how you might approach risk management and are of practical use to you when trading. Avoiding mistakes is not a sexy tagline but it is an effective and reliable way to improve results.
Next up I will be writing about an exciting topic I think many traders should look at rather differently: news trading. Please follow on here to receive notifications and the broad outline is below.
News Trading Part I
  • Introduction
  • Why use the economic calendar
  • Reading the economic calendar
  • Knowing what's priced in
  • Surveys
  • Interest rates
  • First order thinking vs second order thinking
News Trading Part II
  • Preparing for quantitative and qualitative releases
  • Data surprise index
  • Using recent events to predict future reactions
  • Buy the rumour, sell the fact
  • The mysterious 'position trim' effect
  • Reversals
  • Some key FX releases
***

Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
submitted by getmrmarket to Forex [link] [comments]

[H] 50000$ BTC/ETH [W] 5X FN Dragon Lores (3000$ each) 5X FN$ howls (1800$ each) + multiple doppler gems

B/O [H] 50000$ BTC/ETH [W] 5X FN Dragon Lores (3000$ each) 5X FN$ howls (1800$ each) + multiple doppler gems
Hello. I am looking for multiple high-tier skins and inventories.I can also pay with international bank transfer.
Trust should not be an issue :-)
Cash rep
My Twitter
Tradeoffer link
Add me here
submitted by Behrensdorff to GlobalOffensiveTrade [link] [comments]

Swing traders I need your help

So I finally finished the whole School of Pipsology and decided that the best style of trading for me is swing trading.
Now I’m workong on my strategy + plan but I know I still lack way too much knowledge, hence this thread.
My general idea is to use SMA crosses, to show the start of a trend and when/where to enter, combined with a oscilator (I don’t know which one is the best for this kind of strategy). What I found out, while backtesting, is that SMAs are kinda slow. Is there a way to compensate this?
While backtesting I’m looking at D1, H4 and H1 timeframes. D1 I mostly use only to find support and resistance, maybe some general trend. H4 and H1 are a bit tricky for me and I don’t know on which i should focus more when looking for entry points or various candle stick formations. Is there some commom rule to this?
Since you leave your positions open for multiple days does sessions even matter?
Lastly how do you react to major news while your position is open? Do you close your position before the news, after or just leave it as it is?
Thanks to everyone who got this far.
What I’m looking for with this thread is to find out if I’m at least heading to the right direction. Any suggestions on educational material will be greatly appreciated (none of the books metioned in the sub are specificaly for swing trading, but if any of them helped you feel free to add them).
submitted by BootyFace69 to Forex [link] [comments]

Tier list of trading strategies from easiest to hardest for beginners

I’m bored so I decided to help out the noobs that don’t know what they should learn. All of these can make lots of money but some of them are way harder to master. I trade crypto but I imagine this works with anything.
Brain dead easy tier:
  1. trading with trend entering at key support or resistance (major fib level, 4 hour Bolinger band, historical support, or just a clean round number usually works)
Explanation: layer your buys or shorts around a level. The first time a wick drops through it, it’ll snap down, fill as many of your orders as it will, then virtually always bounces up a ways. Close after the bounce. This works for shorts too at resistance. You can start making a profit doing this with almost no experience at all.
  1. Building a swing position with the trend ( when the weekly and daily charts are going the same direction you are safely in a trend.)
Explanation: let’s say we are in a bullish trend. One morning it drops a few percent. Buy some contracts but leave a lot of room for error. The next day it pumps? Great sell them. It goes down instead? Add to the position. Keep doing this until the next time it pumps and cash in. Don’t worry until the trend breaks on a macro level (weekly chart or higher) and if that happens take the loss and don’t over think it, just start building the opposite direction. That may sound risky but it’s really pretty hard to fuck up, things retrace.
Tier 2: easy tier but requires some understanding of what you’re doing
  1. Longing after a dump
Explanation. It’s pretty simple. You see on a chart that something has been dropping for hours? Just wait for it to stop actively dropping and market buy. It pretty much always retraces after everyone realizes the bears can’t keep pushing it down for now.
  1. Range scalping
Explanation: look at your 15 minute chart (or 5, or 1 hour, or wherever it’s ranging on the clearest) with Bolinger bands on. Has it been to the same top and bottom more than once? Just set limit orders at both ends of the Bolinger band and wait for them to fill. If it breaks out of the range, close at a small loss. Otherwise keep going until it breaks out of the range. You can make an absolutely stupid amount of money doing this because everyone else is waiting to enter on the breakout.
  1. Waiting for a good entry on a macro chart.
Explanation: this sounds dumb but it’s actually how The Boot turned $5,000 into 3,000,000 in 18 months. Just look at the structure of the daily chart whenever it’s in a down trend, it will usually conform to a specific pattern. As soon as that pattern breaks with a close outside the pattern, enter a long. If it falls back in, close at a loss and wait for it to break again to enter. Eventually it’s going to pump like 5+% in one day when it breaks out for real and each time it tries to break and falls back in it makes the likelihood that the next one is real even higher. You can take your profit immediately or wait for a clear rejection. This works even better on higher timeframe charts but obviously you get fewer chances.
  1. trading against the trend at key support and resistance levels
Explanation: key resistances and supports almost always hold No matter what the trend. You can use these to make money the same way as in the trend as long as you’re able to tell when it isn’t going to hold that time or you’re able to get out quickly when it doesn’t.
Medium difficulty tier:
  1. Shorting after a pump
Explanation: same concept as longing after a dump but it’s harder because top patterns are more nuanced and require a bit more experience to handle. Also pumps are just inherently more unpredictable so at the very least start with small positions or you might get fucked if you can’t tell when a top isn’t the top. But in general though, after a breakout candle, there’s almost always a pullback of some kind so if you don’t horribly miscall the top of the breakout you’ll be able to close below your entry.
  1. Trading small timeframe reversal patterns.
Explanation: there are some reversal patterns that work on the 5 minute or 15 minute that are so reliable you can almost 100x them when you see them. double engulfings, mini Adam and eves, etc. however until you learn when the pattern is actually the pattern you’ll make some mistakes
  1. Trading prebreakout and prebreakdown patterns.
Explanation: similarly to reversal patterns, certain patterns form on the 5 and 15 before almost every major drop or pump. The trick is to see them coming before it’s so obvious that it’s too late to enter. You have a window for sure, but it takes a bit of practice.
Hard tier:
  1. Trading pre breakout and breakdown patterns on medium timeframes.
Explanation: just like shorter time frames, the 1 hour, 4 hour, etc form reliable patterns that will give you many percent of profit if you can identify them before almost every major movement. They are however more difficult to spot and it’s less easy to see when they aren’t going to hold, so this one takes more practice.
  1. Knife catching the top and bottom
Explanation: before the dump or pump has finished, you can usually get an idea of where it’s going to end up based on the orderbook and the charts and the rest of the TA. Doing this has a risk high reward because you’ll get at least a full percent more of movement if you do it right but if you don’t you better know what the fuck you’re doing.
  1. Trading with the middle range trend.
Explanation: so even when you aren’t breaking out or down, the candles will give you a pretty good idea of what direction the price is likely to range over to using the 1 hour, 2 hour, 4 hour, etc all combined in your head and weighted based on how clear the pattern is on each chart and how they can best fit together. Probably 80% reliable at best.
Pros only:
  1. Using candle patterns to identify the next movement during extremely choppy markets
Explanation: this is hard and inherently risky no matter your level, but even when the price isn’t moving, if you get good enough at reading candle patterns you can say with maybe 65% reliability which way it’s likely to end up. I usually don’t bother because I hate making losing trades even if it’s right more often than not.
  1. Price Action Trading Strategy in general.
Explanation: the numbers flying up and down your recent trades window tend to move in specific ways right before certain things are going to happen. This one took me the longest to master but now that I have it I find myself relying on it more than anything else. It’s really hard though because there’s only subtle differences between the way it moves before a pump and the way it moves before a pump that’s about to get rejected. Good luck!
  1. Knife catching mid movement.
So you have to be an asshole to even try this but my friend used to do it to show off. Basically let’s say you’re short and it’s about to dump a few hundred dollars. The smart thing to do is to just hold your short to the bottom but it’s technically more profitable if you can catch the minute or so bounces that happen during the fall And reshort at the tops of them.
This list is in no way complete but it’s most of the things I do in any given week depending on what the market is doing and how much attention I’m paying at the time. Let me know if you have any questions or you want me to shut the fuck up.
submitted by MrArtless to Daytrading [link] [comments]

A Physicist's Bitcoin Trading Strategy. No leverage, no going short, just spot trading. Total cumulative outperformance 2011-2020: 13,000,000%.

https://www.tradingview.com/script/4J5psNDo-A-Physicist-s-Bitcoin-Trading-Strategy/
3. Backtest Results
Backtest results demonstrate significant outperformance over buy-and-hold . The default parameters of the strategy/indicator have been set by the author to achieve maximum (or, close to maximum) outperformance on backtests executed on the BTCUSD ( Bitcoin ) chart. However, significant outperformance over buy-and-hold is still easily achievable using non-default parameters. Basically, as long as the parameters are set to adequately capture the full character of the market, significant outperformance on backtests is achievable and is quite easy. In fact, after some experimentation, it seems as if underperformance hardly achievable and requires deliberately setting the parameters illogically (e.g. setting one parameter of the slow indicator faster than the fast indicator). In the interest of providing a quality product to the user, suggestions and guidelines for parameter settings are provided in section (6). Finally, some metrics of the strategy's outperformance on the BTCUSD chart are listed below, both for the default (optimal) parameters as well as for a random sample of parameter settings that adhere to the guidelines set forth in section (6).
Using the default parameters, relative to buy-and-hold strategy, backtested from August 2011 to August 2020,
Using the default parameters, relative to buy-and-hold strategy, during specific periods,
Using a random sample (n=20) of combinations of parameter settings that adhere to the guidelines outlined in section (6), relative to buy-and-hold strategy, backtested from August 2011 to August 2020,
EDIT (because apparently not everybody bothers to read the strategy's description):
7. General Remarks About the Indicator
Other than some exponential moving averages, no traditional technical indicators or technical analysis tools are employed in this strategy. No MACD , no RSI , no CMF , no Bollinger bands , parabolic SARs, Ichimoku clouds , hoosawatsits, XYZs, ABCs, whatarethese. No tea leaves can be found in this strategy, only mathematics. It is in the nature of the underlying math formula, from which the indicator is produced, to quickly identify trend changes.
8. Remarks About Expectations of Future Results and About Backtesting
8.1. In General As it's been stated in many prospectuses and marketing literature, "past performance is no guarantee of future results." Backtest results are retrospective, and hindsight is 20/20. Therefore, no guarantee can, nor should, be expressed by me or anybody else who is selling a financial product (unless you have a money printer, like the Federal Reserve does).
8.2. Regarding This Strategy No guarantee of future results using this strategy is expressed by the author, not now nor at any time in the future.
With that written, the author is free to express his own expectations and opinions based on his intimate knowledge of how the indicator works, and the author will take that liberty by writing the following: As described in section (7), this trading strategy does not include any traditional technical indicators or TA tools (other than smoothing EMAs). Instead, this strategy is based on a principle that does not change, it employs a complex indicator that is based on a math formula that does not change, and it places trades based on five simple rules that do not change. And, as described in section (2.1), the indicator is designed to capture the full character of the market, from a macro/global scope down to a micro/local scope. Additionally, as described in section (3), outperformance of the market for which this strategy was intended during backtesting does not depend on luckily setting the parameters "just right." In fact, all random combinations of parameter settings that followed the guidelines outperformed the intended market in backtests. Additionally, no parameters are included within the underlying math formula from which the indicator is produced; it is not as if the formula contains a "5" and future outperformance would depend on that "5" being a "6" instead. And, again as described, it is in the nature of the formula to quickly identify trend changes. Therefore, it is the opinion of the author that the outperformance of this strategy in backtesting is directly attributable to the fundamental nature of the math formula from which the indicator is produced. As such, it is also the opinion of the author that continued outperformance by using this strategy, applied to the crypto ( Bitcoin ) market, is likely, given that the parameter settings are set reasonably and in accordance with the guidelines. The author does not, however, expect future outperformance of this strategy to match or exceed the outperformance observed in backtests using the default parameters, i.e. it probably won't outperform by anything close to 13,000,000% during the next 9 years.
Additionally, based on the rolling 1-month outperformance data listed in section (3), expectations of short-term outperformance should be kept low; the median 1-month outperformance was -2%, so it's basically a 50/50 chance that any significant outperformance is seen in any given month. The true strength of this strategy is to be out of the market during large, sharp declines and capitalizing on the opportunities presented at the bottom of those declines by buying the dip. Given that such price action does not happen every month, outperformance in the initial months of use is approximately as likely as underperformance.
submitted by anon2414691 to BitcoinMarkets [link] [comments]

Your Pre Market Brief for 07/20/2020

Pre Market Brief for Monday July 20th 2020

You can subscribe to the daily 4:00 AM Pre Market Brief on The Twitter Link Here . Alerts in the tweets will direct you to the daily 4:00 AM Pre Market Brief in this sub.
Updated as of 5:00 AM EST
-----------------------------------------------
Stock Futures:
Friday 07/17/2020 News and Markets Recap:
Monday July 20th 2020 Economic Calendar (All times are Eastern)
News Heading into Monday July 20th 2020
NOTE: I USUALLY (TRY TO) POST MANY OF THE MOST PROMISING, DRAMATIC, OR BAD NEWS OVERNIGHT STORIES THAT ARE LIKELY IMPORTANT TO THE MEMBERS OF THIS SUB AT THE TOP OF THIS LIST. PLEASE DO NOT YOLO THE VARIOUS TICKERS WITHOUT DOING RESEARCH. THE TIME STAMPS ON THESE MAY BE LATER THAN OTHERS ON THE WEB.
Upcoming Earnings:
Commodities:
COVID-19 Stats and News:
Macro Considerations:
Most Recent SEC Filings
Other
-----------------------------------------------
Morning Research and Trading Prep Tool Kit
Other Useful Resources:
The Ultimate Quick Resource For the Amateur Trader.
Subscribe to This Brief and the daily 4:00 AM Pre Market Brief on The Twitter Link Here . Alerts in the tweets will direct you to the daily brief in this sub
It is up to you to judge the accuracy and veracity of these headlines before trading.
submitted by Cicero1982 to pennystocks [link] [comments]

Scam alert: MXC Exchange defrauding their users. Repeat case of >$2mm being held hostage, potentially for over a year. User deposits now being sold on Uniswap

Summary: https://medium.com/@simonsaysmoneyonline/mxc-com-exchanges-actions-force-clients-to-lose-money-on-xor-sora-cd1b480a63fc
TLDR:
They also have bots promoting the idea of how "safe" depositing on their exchange is, which is nothing short of laughable considering these recent incidents. In addition to referral links and other attempts at getting people to spam this exchange all over social media such as Telegram, Twitter, and Reddit.
Please guys, always be careful using exchanges you don't fully trust! Using this exchange is extremely risky. And consider spreading awareness if you know any influencer or people connected to crypto-related media. If MXC has the tendency of using some kind of fractional reserve when selling DOS and XOR, it could very well be another Cryptopia in the making.
 
submitted by BitcoinKey to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

[Daily Discussion] Sunday, March 08, 2020

Welcome to the /LitecoinMarkets daily discussion thread! Thread topics include, but are not limited to: General discussion related to the days events, technical analysis, trading ideas & strategies.
submitted by AutoModerator to LitecoinMarkets [link] [comments]

TRADE OF THE DAY: NVIDIA ($NVDA) Vertical Spread 415/417.5 CALL 28AUG [07/28/20]

Begun, The Dollarpocalypse Has . . .

Pre-Market Summary
Two headlines grabbed my attention yesterday:

Gold price hits record high on new fears for the economy

Dollar index slides to 2-year low

I can't help but suspect this is a zeitgeist moment; will these serve as a weathervane for what's to come?
S&P futures and European stocks slumped as market optimism faded during the busiest week of earnings season while Gold was hammered moments after the December future hit an all time high of $2000 following a record-breaking rally, with spot gold tanking more than $30 in minutes and silver dropping as much as 2% before regaining composure.
Gold hit a record high on Tuesday before the sheer scale of its gains drew a burst of profit-taking, with the volatility prompting the Shanghai Gold Exchange to issue a notice on risk prevention and express a willingness to take action if required. The dump in gold also helped the dollar rebound from two-year lows.
After rising almost $40 higher at one point to reach $1,980 an ounce, gold was hit by a wave of selling which it pushed back to $1,915 in volatile trade. Gold is still up over $125 in little more than a week as investors bet the Federal Reserve will reaffirm its accommodating policies at its meeting this week, and perhaps signal a tolerance for higher inflation in the long run.
"Fed officials have made clear that they will be making their forward guidance more dovish and outcome-based soon," wrote analysts at TD Securities. “The chairman is likely to continue the process of prepping markets for changes when he speaks at his press conference.” One shift could be to average inflation targeting, which would see the Fed aim to push inflation above its 2% target to make up for years of under-shooting.

Top Overnight News

Trade Of The Day
The game of musical chairs continues with large-cap tech stocks; eventually the music will stop playing and no seats will be found before prices drop, but until that event occurs, most of the market gains are coming from this sector.
Today's Trade of the Day comes via NVDA who does not report earnings until August 13th. It's set up in a flag formation with a lot of potential energy, ready to break. And as we've seen lately, stocks are breaking BEFORE their earnings date.
Here are two potential plays:
  1. What makes trading NVDA a challenge, like every other big-cap tech stock, is the price of $415/share. If you don't define a stop loss, then buying just ONE share at $415 represents the maximum 2% account risk for a $21k account! This is where fractional shares can come to the rescue for small accounts. I can define a fixed dollar amount in Robinhood (or other brokers supporting fractional shares) and they will create a fractional share position equivalent to my investment. For example, if I wanted to create a $40 NVDA position, then Robinhood would grant me .096 shares of NVDA.
  2. Alternatively, I could still leverage the gains/losses of a 100-share NVDA position by trading a vertical options spread using the 28AUG option series, going long the $415 call and simultaneously selling the $417.5 call as "insurance." This trade allows me to cap my risk at $125/contract, which would represent a max 2% risk to a $6250 account.
Disclaimer — This is a trade idea meant to help anyone learning options or looking for outside opinion, not an instruction manual for what to do with your money. You are the only one responsible for your portfolio.
Check out /tradeoftheday to submit your own daily trades & talk more about stocks / options / crypto / spacs / everything else trading! See you there!
Cheers and beers,
ReadySetTrade
submitted by ready-set-trade to options [link] [comments]

Best crypto trading course ?

Hello my awesome community! I have studied some basics of trading .. and now thinking to start crypto trading. Do you suggest some best online courses that better teach market psychology and price actions ? I would truly appreciate it,
submitted by Ikemen-1 to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

How to SWING TRADE using price action ( simple swing ... Learn How To Day Trade With Price Action 01 16 2020 Price Action Trading Secrets (Most Trading Gurus Will ... WHY YOU NEED TO UNDERSTAND PRICE ACTION WHEN TRADING ... Price Action Trading Course: Bitcoin and the Cryptos

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