Foreign Exchange Margin Trading Market 2020-2025 | Gaitame

The dollar standard and how the Fed itself created the perfect setup for a stock market crash

Disclaimer: This is neither financial nor trading advice and everyone should trade based on their own risk tolerance. Please leverage yourself accordingly. When you're done, ask yourself: "Am I jacked to the tits?". If the answer is "yes", you're good to go.
We're probably experiencing the wildest markets in our lifetime. After doing some research and listening to opinions by several people, I wanted to share my own view on what happened in the market and what could happen in the future. There's no guarantee that the future plays out as I describe it or otherwise I'd become very rich.
If you just want tickers and strikes...I don't know if this is going to help you. But anyways, scroll way down to the end. My current position is TLT 171c 8/21, opened on Friday 7/31 when TLT was at 170.50.
This is a post trying to describe what it means that we've entered the "dollar standard" decades ago after leaving the gold standard. Furthermore I'll try to explain how the "dollar standard" is the biggest reason behind the 2008 and 2020 financial crisis, stock market crashes and how the Coronavirus pandemic was probably the best catalyst for the global dollar system to blow up.

Tackling the Dollar problem

Throughout the month of July we've seen the "death of the Dollar". At least that's what WSB thinks. It's easy to think that especially since it gets reiterated in most media outlets. I will take the contrarian view. This is a short-term "downturn" in the Dollar and very soon the Dollar will rise a lot against the Euro - supported by the Federal Reserve itself.US dollar Index (DXY)If you zoom out to the 3Y chart you'll see what everyone is being hysterical about. The dollar is dying! It was that low in 2018! This is the end! The Fed has done too much money printing! Zimbabwe and Weimar are coming to the US.
There is more to it though. The DXY is dominated by two currency rates and the most important one by far is EURUSD.EURUSD makes up 57.6% of the DXY
And we've seen EURUSD rise from 1.14 to 1.18 since July 21st, 2020. Why that date? On that date the European Commission (basically the "government" of the EU) announced that there was an agreement for the historical rescue package for the EU. That showed the markets that the EU seems to be strong and resilient, it seemed to be united (we're not really united, trust me as an European) and therefore there are more chances in the EU, the Euro and more chances taking risks in the EU.Meanwhile the US continued to struggle with the Coronavirus and some states like California went back to restricting public life. The US economy looked weaker and therefore the Euro rose a lot against the USD.
From a technical point of view the DXY failed to break the 97.5 resistance in June three times - DXY bulls became exhausted and sellers gained control resulting in a pretty big selloff in the DXY.

Why the DXY is pretty useless

Considering that EURUSD is the dominant force in the DXY I have to say it's pretty useless as a measurement of the US dollar. Why? Well, the economy is a global economy. Global trade is not dominated by trade between the EU and the USA. There are a lot of big exporting nations besides Germany, many of them in Asia. We know about China, Japan, South Korea etc. Depending on the business sector there are a lot of big exporters in so-called "emerging markets". For example, Brazil and India are two of the biggest exporters of beef.
Now, what does that mean? It means that we need to look at the US dollar from a broader perspective. Thankfully, the Fed itself provides a more accurate Dollar index. It's called the "Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index: Broad, Goods and Services".
When you look at that index you will see that it didn't really collapse like the DXY. In fact, it still is as high as it was on March 10, 2020! You know, only two weeks before the stock market bottomed out. How can that be explained?

Global trade, emerging markets and global dollar shortage

Emerging markets are found in countries which have been shifting away from their traditional way of living towards being an industrial nation. Of course, Americans and most of the Europeans don't know how life was 300 years ago.China already completed that transition. Countries like Brazil and India are on its way. The MSCI Emerging Market Index lists 26 countries. Even South Korea is included.
However there is a big problem for Emerging Markets: the Coronavirus and US Imports.The good thing about import and export data is that you can't fake it. Those numbers speak the truth. You can see that imports into the US haven't recovered to pre-Corona levels yet. It will be interesting to see the July data coming out on August 5th.Also you can look at exports from Emerging Market economies. Let's take South Korean exports YoY. You can see that South Korean exports are still heavily depressed compared to a year ago. Global trade hasn't really recovered.For July the data still has to be updated that's why you see a "0.0%" change right now.Less US imports mean less US dollars going into foreign countries including Emerging Markets.Those currency pairs are pretty unimpressed by the rising Euro. Let's look at a few examples. Use the 1Y chart to see what I mean.
Indian Rupee to USDBrazilian Real to USDSouth Korean Won to USD
What do you see if you look at the 1Y chart of those currency pairs? There's no recovery to pre-COVID levels. And this is pretty bad for the global financial system. Why? According to the Bank of International Settlements there is $12.6 trillion of dollar-denominated debt outside of the United States. Now the Coronavirus comes into play where economies around the world are struggling to go back to their previous levels while the currencies of Emerging Markets continue to be WEAK against the US dollar.
This is very bad. We've already seen the IMF receiving requests for emergency loans from 80 countries on March 23th. What are we going to see? We know Argentina has defaulted on their debt more than once and make jokes about it. But what happens if we see 5 Argentinas? 10? 20? Even 80?
Add to that that global travel is still depressed, especially for US citizens going anywhere. US citizens traveling to other countries is also a situation in which the precious US dollars would enter Emerging Market economies. But it's not happening right now and it won't happen unless we actually get a miracle treatment or the virus simply disappears.
This is where the treasury market comes into play. But before that, let's quickly look at what QE (rising Fed balance sheet) does to the USD.
Take a look at the Trade-Weighted US dollar Index. Look at it at max timeframe - you'll see what happened in 2008. The dollar went up (shocker).Now let's look at the Fed balance sheet at max timeframe. You will see: as soon as the Fed starts the QE engine, the USD goes UP, not down! September 2008 (Fed first buys MBS), March 2009, March 2020. Is it just a coincidence? No, as I'll explain below. They're correlated and probably even in causation.Oh and in all of those scenarios the stock market crashed...compared to February 2020, the Fed balance sheet grew by ONE TRILLION until March 25th, but the stock market had just finished crashing...can you please prove to me that QE makes stock prices go up? I think I've just proven the opposite correlation.

Bonds, bills, Gold and "inflation"

People laugh at bond bulls or at people buying bonds due to the dropping yields. "Haha you're stupid you're buying an asset which matures in 10 years and yields 5.3% STONKS go up way more!".Let me stop you right there.
Why do you buy stocks? Will you hold those stocks until you die so that you regain your initial investment through dividends? No. You buy them because you expect them to go up based on fundamental analysis, news like earnings or other things. Then you sell them when you see your price target reached. The assets appreciated.Why do you buy options? You don't want to hold them until expiration unless they're -90% (what happens most of the time in WSB). You wait until the underlying asset does what you expect it does and then you sell the options to collect the premium. Again, the assets appreciated.
It's the exact same thing with treasury securities. The people who've been buying bonds for the past years or even decades didn't want to wait until they mature. Those people want to sell the bonds as they appreciate. Bond prices have an inverse relationship with their yields which is logical when you think about it. Someone who desperately wants and needs the bonds for various reasons will accept to pay a higher price (supply and demand, ya know) and therefore accept a lower yield.
By the way, both JP Morgan and Goldmans Sachs posted an unexpected profit this quarter, why? They made a killing trading bonds.
US treasury securities are the most liquid asset in the world and they're also the safest asset you can hold. After all, if the US default on their debt you know that the world is doomed. So if US treasuries become worthless anything else has already become worthless.
Now why is there so much demand for the safest and most liquid asset in the world? That demand isn't new but it's caused by the situation the global economy is in. Trade and travel are down and probably won't recover anytime soon, emerging markets are struggling both with the virus and their dollar-denominated debt and central banks around the world struggle to find solutions for the problems in the financial markets.
How do we now that the markets aren't trusting central banks? Well, bonds tell us that and actually Gold tells us the same!
TLT chartGold spot price chart
TLT is an ETF which reflects the price of US treasuries with 20 or more years left until maturity. Basically the inverse of the 30 year treasury yield.
As you can see from the 5Y chart bonds haven't been doing much from 2016 to mid-2019. Then the repo crisis of September 2019took place and TLT actually rallied in August 2019 before the repo crisis finally occurred!So the bond market signaled that something is wrong in the financial markets and that "something" manifested itself in the repo crisis.
After the repo market crisis ended (the Fed didn't really do much to help it, before you ask), bonds again were quiet for three months and started rallying in January (!) while most of the world was sitting on their asses and downplaying the Coronavirus threat.
But wait, how does Gold come into play? The Gold chart basically follows the same pattern as the TLT chart. Doing basically nothing from 2016 to mid-2019. From June until August Gold rose a staggering 200 dollars and then again stayed flat until December 2019. After that, Gold had another rally until March when it finally collapsed.
Many people think rising Gold prices are a sign of inflation. But where is the inflation? We saw PCE price indices on Friday July 31st and they're at roughly 1%. We've seen CPIs from European countries and the EU itself. France and the EU (July 31st) as a whole had a very slight uptick in CPI while Germany (July 30th), Italy (July 31st) and Spain (July 30th) saw deflationary prints.There is no inflation, nowhere in the world. I'm sorry to burst that bubble.
Yet, Gold prices still go up even when the Dollar rallies through the DXY (sadly I have to measure it that way now since the trade-weighted index isn't updated daily) and we know that there is no inflation from a monetary perspective. In fact, Fed chairman JPow, apparently the final boss for all bears, said on Wednesday July 29th that the Coronavirus pandemic is a deflationary disinflationary event. Someone correct me there, thank you. But deflationary forces are still in place even if JPow wouldn't admit it.
To conclude this rather long section: Both bonds and Gold are indicators for an upcoming financial crisis. Bond prices should fall and yields should go up to signal an economic recovery. But the opposite is happening. in that regard heavily rising Gold prices are a very bad signal for the future. Both bonds and Gold are screaming: "The central banks haven't solved the problems".
By the way, Gold is also a very liquid asset if you want quick cash, that's why we saw it sell off in March because people needed dollars thanks to repo problems and margin calls.When the deflationary shock happens and another liquidity event occurs there will be another big price drop in precious metals and that's the dip which you could use to load up on metals by the way.

Dismantling the money printer

But the Fed! The M2 money stock is SHOOTING THROUGH THE ROOF! The printers are real!By the way, velocity of M2 was updated on July 30th and saw another sharp decline. If you take a closer look at the M2 stock you see three parts absolutely skyrocketing: savings, demand deposits and institutional money funds. Inflationary? No.
So, the printers aren't real. I'm sorry.Quantitative easing (QE) is the biggest part of the Fed's operations to help the economy get back on its feet. What is QE?Upon doing QE the Fed "purchases" treasury and mortgage-backed securities from the commercial banks. The Fed forces the commercial banks to hand over those securities and in return the commercial banks reserve additional bank reserves at an account in the Federal Reserve.
This may sound very confusing to everyone so let's make it simple by an analogy.I want to borrow a camera from you, I need it for my road trip. You agree but only if I give you some kind of security - for example 100 bucks as collateral.You keep the 100 bucks safe in your house and wait for me to return safely. You just wait and wait. You can't do anything else in this situation. Maybe my road trip takes a year. Maybe I come back earlier. But as long as I have your camera, the 100 bucks need to stay with you.
In this analogy, I am the Fed. You = commercial banks. Camera = treasuries/MBS. 100 bucks = additional bank reserves held at the Fed.

Revisiting 2008 briefly: the true money printers

The true money printers are the commercial banks, not the central banks. The commercial banks give out loans and demand interest payments. Through those interest payments they create money out of thin air! At the end they'll have more money than before giving out the loan.
That additional money can be used to give out more loans, buy more treasury/MBS Securities or gain more money through investing and trading.
Before the global financial crisis commercial banks were really loose with their policy. You know, the whole "Big Short" story, housing bubble, NINJA loans and so on. The reckless handling of money by the commercial banks led to actual money printing and inflation, until the music suddenly stopped. Bear Stearns went tits up. Lehman went tits up.
The banks learned from those years and completely changed, forever. They became very strict with their lending resulting in the Fed and the ECB not being able to raise their rates. By keeping the Fed funds rate low the Federal Reserve wants to encourage commercial banks to give out loans to stimulate the economy. But commercial banks are not playing along. They even accept negative rates in Europe rather than taking risks in the actual economy.
The GFC of 2008 completely changed the financial landscape and the central banks have struggled to understand that. The system wasn't working anymore because the main players (the commercial banks) stopped playing with each other. That's also the reason why we see repeated problems in the repo market.

How QE actually decreases liquidity before it's effective

The funny thing about QE is that it achieves the complete opposite of what it's supposed to achieve before actually leading to an economic recovery.
What does that mean? Let's go back to my analogy with the camera.
Before I take away your camera, you can do several things with it. If you need cash, you can sell it or go to a pawn shop. You can even lend your camera to someone for a daily fee and collect money through that.But then I come along and just take away your camera for a road trip for 100 bucks in collateral.
What can you do with those 100 bucks? Basically nothing. You can't buy something else with those. You can't lend the money to someone else. It's basically dead capital. You can just look at it and wait until I come back.
And this is what is happening with QE.
Commercial banks buy treasuries and MBS due to many reasons, of course they're legally obliged to hold some treasuries, but they also need them to make business.When a commercial bank has a treasury security, they can do the following things with it:- Sell it to get cash- Give out loans against the treasury security- Lend the security to a short seller who wants to short bonds
Now the commercial banks received a cash reserve account at the Fed in exchange for their treasury security. What can they do with that?- Give out loans against the reserve account
That's it. The bank had to give away a very liquid and flexible asset and received an illiquid asset for it. Well done, Fed.
The goal of the Fed is to encourage lending and borrowing through suppressing yields via QE. But it's not happening and we can see that in the H.8 data (assets and liabilities of the commercial banks).There is no recovery to be seen in the credit sector while the commercial banks continue to collect treasury securities and MBS. On one hand, they need to sell a portion of them to the Fed on the other hand they profit off those securities by trading them - remember JPM's earnings.
So we see that while the Fed is actually decreasing liquidity in the markets by collecting all the treasuries it has collected in the past, interest rates are still too high. People are scared, and commercial banks don't want to give out loans. This means that as the economic recovery is stalling (another whopping 1.4M jobless claims on Thursday July 30th) the Fed needs to suppress interest rates even more. That means: more QE. that means: the liquidity dries up even more, thanks to the Fed.
We heard JPow saying on Wednesday that the Fed will keep their minimum of 120 billion QE per month, but, and this is important, they can increase that amount anytime they see an emergency.And that's exactly what he will do. He will ramp up the QE machine again, removing more bond supply from the market and therefore decreasing the liquidity in financial markets even more. That's his Hail Mary play to force Americans back to taking on debt again.All of that while the government is taking on record debt due to "stimulus" (which is apparently only going to Apple, Amazon and Robinhood). Who pays for the government debt? The taxpayers. The wealthy people. The people who create jobs and opportunities. But in the future they have to pay more taxes to pay down the government debt (or at least pay for the interest). This means that they can't create opportunities right now due to the government going insane with their debt - and of course, there's still the Coronavirus.

"Without the Fed, yields would skyrocket"

This is wrong. The Fed has been keeping their basic level QE of 120 billion per month for months now. But ignoring the fake breakout in the beginning of June (thanks to reopening hopes), yields have been on a steady decline.
Let's take a look at the Fed's balance sheet.
The Fed has thankfully stayed away from purchasing more treasury bills (short term treasury securities). Bills are important for the repo market as collateral. They're the best collateral you can have and the Fed has already done enough damage by buying those treasury bills in March, destroying even more liquidity than usual.
More interesting is the point "notes and bonds, nominal". The Fed added 13.691 billion worth of US treasury notes and bonds to their balance sheet. Luckily for us, the US Department of Treasury releases the results of treasury auctions when they occur. On July 28th there was an auction for the 7 year treasury note. You can find the results under "Note -> Term: 7-year -> Auction Date 07/28/2020 -> Competitive Results PDF". Or here's a link.
What do we see? Indirect bidders, which are foreigners by the way, took 28 billion out of the total 44 billion. That's roughly 64% of the entire auction. Primary dealers are the ones which sell the securities to the commercial banks. Direct bidders are domestic buyers of treasuries.
The conclusion is: There's insane demand for US treasury notes and bonds by foreigners. Those US treasuries are basically equivalent to US dollars. Now dollar bears should ask themselves this question: If the dollar is close to a collapse and the world wants to get rid fo the US dollar, why do foreigners (i.e. foreign central banks) continue to take 60-70% of every bond auction? They do it because they desperately need dollars and hope to drive prices up, supported by the Federal Reserve itself, in an attempt to have the dollar reserves when the next liquidity event occurs.
So foreigners are buying way more treasuries than the Fed does. Final conclusion: the bond market has adjusted to the Fed being a player long time ago. It isn't the first time the Fed has messed around in the bond market.

How market participants are positioned

We know that commercial banks made good money trading bonds and stocks in the past quarter. Besides big tech the stock market is being stagnant, plain and simple. All the stimulus, stimulus#2, vaccinetalksgoingwell.exe, public appearances by Trump, Powell and their friends, the "money printing" (which isn't money printing) by the Fed couldn't push SPY back to ATH which is 339.08 btw.
Who can we look at? Several people but let's take Bill Ackman. The one who made a killing with Credit Default Swaps in March and then went LONG (he said it live on TV). Well, there's an update about him:Bill Ackman saying he's effectively 100% longHe says that around the 2 minute mark.
Of course, we shouldn't just believe what he says. After all he is a hedge fund manager and wants to make money. But we have to assume that he's long at a significant percentage - it doesn't even make sense to get rid of positions like Hilton when they haven't even recovered yet.
Then again, there are sources to get a peek into the positions of hedge funds, let's take Hedgopia.We see: Hedge funds are starting to go long on the 10 year bond. They are very short the 30 year bond. They are very long the Euro, very short on VIX futures and short on the Dollar.

Endgame

This is the perfect setup for a market meltdown. If hedge funds are really positioned like Ackman and Hedgopia describes, the situation could unwind after a liquidity event:The Fed increases QE to bring down the 30 year yield because the economy isn't recovering yet. We've already seen the correlation of QE and USD and QE and bond prices.That causes a giant short squeeze of hedge funds who are very short the 30 year bond. They need to cover their short positions. But Ackman said they're basically 100% long the stock market and nothing else. So what do they do? They need to sell stocks. Quickly. And what happens when there is a rapid sell-off in stocks? People start to hedge via put options. The VIX rises. But wait, hedge funds are short VIX futures, long Euro and short DXY. To cover their short positions on VIX futures, they need to go long there. VIX continues to go up and the prices of options go suborbital (as far as I can see).Also they need to get rid of Euro futures and cover their short DXY positions. That causes the USD to go up even more.
And the Fed will sit there and do their things again: more QE, infinity QE^2, dollar swap lines, repo operations, TARP and whatever. The Fed will be helpless against the forces of the market and have to watch the stock market burn down and they won't even realize that they created the circumstances for it to happen - by their programs to "help the economy" and their talking on TV. Do you remember JPow on 60minutes talking about how they flooded the world with dollars and print it digitally? He wanted us poor people to believe that the Fed is causing hyperinflation and we should take on debt and invest into the stock market. After all, the Fed has it covered.
But the Fed hasn't got it covered. And Powell knows it. That's why he's being a bear in the FOMC statements. He knows what's going on. But he can't do anything about it except what's apparently proven to be correct - QE, QE and more QE.

A final note about "stock market is not the economy"

It's true. The stock market doesn't reflect the current state of the economy. The current economy is in complete shambles.
But a wise man told me that the stock market is the reflection of the first and second derivatives of the economy. That means: velocity and acceleration of the economy. In retrospect this makes sense.
The economy was basically halted all around the world in March. Of course it's easy to have an insane acceleration of the economy when the economy is at 0 and the stock market reflected that. The peak of that accelerating economy ("max velocity" if you want to look at it like that) was in the beginning of June. All countries were reopening, vaccine hopes, JPow injecting confidence into the markets. Since then, SPY is stagnant, IWM/RUT, which is probably the most accurate reflection of the actual economy, has slightly gone down and people have bid up tech stocks in absolute panic mode.
Even JPow admitted it. The economic recovery has slowed down and if we look at economic data, the recovery has already stopped completely. The economy is rolling over as we can see in the continued high initial unemployment claims. Another fact to factor into the stock market.

TLDR and positions or ban?

TLDR: global economy bad and dollar shortage. economy not recovering, JPow back to doing QE Infinity. QE Infinity will cause the final squeeze in both the bond and stock market and will force the unwinding of the whole system.
Positions: idk. I'll throw in TLT 190c 12/18, SPY 220p 12/18, UUP 26c 12/18.That UUP call had 12.5k volume on Friday 7/31 btw.

Edit about positions and hedge funds

My current positions. You can laugh at my ZEN calls I completely failed with those.I personally will be entering one of the positions mentioned in the end - or similar ones. My personal opinion is that the SPY puts are the weakest try because you have to pay a lot of premium.
Also I forgot talking about why hedge funds are shorting the 30 year bond. Someone asked me in the comments and here's my reply:
"If you look at treasury yields and stock prices they're pretty much positively correlated. Yields go up, then stocks go up. Yields go down (like in March), then stocks go down.
What hedge funds are doing is extremely risky but then again, "hedge funds" is just a name and the hedgies are known for doing extremely risky stuff. They're shorting the 30 year bond because they needs 30y yields to go UP to validate their long positions in the equity market. 30y yields going up means that people are welcoming risk again, taking on debt, spending in the economy.
Milton Friedman labeled this the "interest rate fallacy". People usually think that low interest rates mean "easy money" but it's the opposite. Low interest rates mean that money is really tight and hard to get. Rising interest rates on the other hand signal an economic recovery, an increase in economic activity.
So hedge funds try to fight the Fed - the Fed is buying the 30 year bonds! - to try to validate their stock market positions. They also short VIX futures to do the same thing. Equity bulls don't want to see VIX higher than 15. They're also short the dollar because it would also validate their position: if the economic recovery happens and the global US dollar cycle gets restored then it will be easy to get dollars and the USD will continue to go down.
Then again, they're also fighting against the Fed in this situation because QE and the USD are correlated in my opinion.
Another Redditor told me that people who shorted Japanese government bonds completely blew up because the Japanese central bank bought the bonds and the "widow maker trade" was born:https://www.investopedia.com/terms/w/widow-maker.asp"

Edit #2

Since I've mentioned him a lot in the comments, I recommend you check out Steven van Metre's YouTube channel. Especially the bottom passages of my post are based on the knowledge I received from watching his videos. Even if didn't agree with him on the fundamental issues (there are some things like Gold which I view differently than him) I took it as an inspiration to dig deeper. I think he's a great person and even if you're bullish on stocks you can learn something from Steven!

submitted by 1terrortoast to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Cheap Meat

Not sure if this is allowed, but fuck it, we're hurting and desperate times create desperate people who do desperate things.
TL;DR: Local butcher shop with cheap prices. Trying to keep afloat and keep folks fed. Address at bottom.
Sup ya'll, it's your favorite local meat boy (for those that don’t get it, here's my first post: original NYC meat boy post).
Despite COVID cases in NYC having dropped a fair amount, a lot of businesses that have opened up aren't doing so hot, and still some are not going to open up ever again. While there's unemployment insurance for individuals, there really isn't much for small local businesses. I also know that the pandemic boost for UI is about to run out end of month, so if you're sweating about how you're going to eat, I got you.
Most of America's economy began to feel the effects of The Rona around March of this year, but businesses located in Chinatown were fucked as early as January. America's reporting on COVID centered around China being the bad guy, which trends to loop all Asian Americans as "others" and "not really American." Chinese businesses tanked and hate crimes shot up. People within the community began their own self-imposed quarantine due to increased fear of being caught slacking by some racist fuckstick. Then came the formal lock down in March, which really flipped us over, bent us over the couch for good leverage, and fucked us deep and hard. At the time of 14JUNE2020, less than half of Chinatown's restaurants are open, and less than a third of total businesses are open (Bloomberg article supporting claim). Most funds meant as relief for small businesses got snagged by large corporations. And now all the SMEs are floundering. As of now, the end of July, still less than a third of Chinatown businesses have opened up, especially since most of them couldn't apply for any assistance due to language barriers.
So again, here I am peddling my wares. I also have $9.75 left from someone that wanted to pay it forward earlier in the year for what it’s worth.
We’re a small local meat shop. A butcher shop. A boutique culinary protein throwback to simpler times. Whatever the fuck you want to call it. We sell meat. You get the idea. Our prices are real fucking low. Lower than your self esteem. Lower than what your parents think of you. And that’s a good thing. Cause you like cheap things, you cheap fuck. Save all the money you can. While I can’t guarantee that we’re the cheapest you’ve ever seen, I can guarantee that we’ll be top five in cheapest prices in NYC.
What do you want? Cause more likely than not, we got that shit.
POULTRY. We got all kinds of birds. Chicken, silkies, qual, squab, duck, goose, stewing hens. Fuck you want? Still debating on whether drums or mid’s are better with your friends? Fuck around and cop a pound of each for under $5 per person: mid-wings are $3.89 a pound, drums are back to $.69/lb. Want more meat? Fine. A whole ass chicken leg and thigh, $.89/lb. You fuck with feet? It’s 2020, more power to you my guy. Chicken feet stands at $1.69/lb, duck feet at $1.49/lb. You into titties? Of course you're into titties: chicken breast coming in hot at $4.95 for a 2.2lb net weight bag. Into retirees and GILFs? All you Jack Black: Stewing Hens are two for $5.95. Haven’t gotten neck and head in a hot minute cause of COVID, or your Tinder and Hinge profile is just that basura? Say less: duck heads and necks at $1.39/lb. Into spawn kill? My guy: we got a dozen eggs for $2.95, 30 pack for $6.50. Duck eggs, six for $3.95.
PORK. My man, let me tell you something. You fuck with pork chops? Even if you don't, for $2.39/lb, you fuck with pork chops. We got tenderloins for $3.19/lb. Bones for stock? $.99/lb. Let me guess, you miss eating authentic char siu over rice with the sauce from Chinatown. At $2.69/lb for char siu meat, you can afford to fuck up three times and still come out ahead instead of buying it from a restaurant. Since it's getting hot, you're going to want to throw BBQs, right? Hopefully they're socially distanced, everyone is responsible and wearing a mask, and all you motherfuckers got COVID tested prior. Got you some ribs for $2.89 a pound. You want some of them dim sum ribs? Them itty bitty, little tiny cuts of ribs? Small just like your feelings when your ex left you? $3.59 a pound. You been going through a rough time and need an ear to listen to you. $3.39/lb for pig ears buddy, say more. If you been fucking with feet and chicken and duck feet don't cut it, do it like J. Cole "so big it's like a foot is in yo' mouth" cause I got pre-cut pig trotters for $1.49 a pound. Oh, you deadass want the whole foot in your mouth? Weird, but we're being open-minded here: whole uncut pig trotters at $1.79/lb.
BEEF. Let me guess: you haven't gotten enough foul language from this post and need a better tongue lashing? You filthy, sick, sorry, piece of shit. Beef tongues will run you $6.99 a pound. Or you want to boss up, but instead of being bad and boujee, you've been sad and boujee cause of COVID. Well, fear not, cause with femur bones at $1.95/lb, you can split them right down the fucking middle to get to that sweet, sweet, succulent marrow and feel like you're out brunching, spending $80 you don't have for a meal you can't afford to flex on hoes you couldn't really give less of a shit about. What's that? Pig trotters don't cut it? You trying to deepthroat the shit? I mean, do mama proud I guess. I got beef trotters/feet at $1.89 a pound. I mean, with skills like that, why you even buying from me? You belong on the yacht of some old rich man. But do you. Oh what's that? Your girl says your stroke game shit and you falling short of getting up in her guts? No fix for that, sorry, but you can cop honeycomb tripe or stomach at $3.39 a pound and know for a fact you can absolutely beat the ever living fuck out of these guts. You trying to fuck with flank steaks? $7.45 my guy. New York Strip? $8.99. T-Bone? $7.99. My bone? Ten camels. Where my Jamaicans at? Waa gwaan? I know oxtail is AT LEAST $6.75/lb where you’re at. We have them on deck for $5.99/lb.
Or maybe you’re a rapper. You’re on SoundCloud pushing music and living out your mama’s crib. No shame, it’s rough out here King. Want to know how to really blow up? What did Eminem call himself in 8 Mile? That’s right, B-Rabbit. And you know what I got? Rabbit for $4.69 a pound. You are what you eat man. I’m not saying that eating rabbit will immediately blow your rap career the fuck up and give you the lyrical genius of Eminem, but I’m not saying it won’t either. For less than $5 a pound, you really gonna chance it? What if the other rappers cop it and you don’t and they blow up? Don’t get left behind my guy. You a King and King’s gotta do what they don’t want to do sometimes for the betterment of the folks. And the folks want to hear your music.
Or maybe rabbit not your thing. You right, it’s too lean and lacks fat. Eat too much rabbit and nothing else and you’ll starve your body of fat. So how about goat? You want to be the GOAT, don’t you? Reddit’s even got a badge for it. If you want to be the Goat, guess what you gotta do? That’s fucking right, you are what you eat and here I am, your fucking pusher man for goat.
You're fancy and trying to be boujee. Let me guess: lamb? Say less, I got you that bonjour hon hon hon rack of of lamb chops. Want a quarter of lamb? Got that too. All you gotta do is ask.
I'm not going to really keep going down the list. You get the idea. I work at a fucking meat shop, I'm going to sell meat. I sell wholesale to restaurants and retail to walk-in folks. It's a pretty simple fucking concept. Is our meat fresh? As fresh as, if not more so, than any large chain due to constant turn over on wholesale side.
Why are our prices so low? Because we're a small mom-and-pop brick and mortar shop. We're located in Chinatown. Ever heard of FUBU? Same concept: we're built by Chinese immigrants, for Chinese immigrants. Unfortunately, the Chinese population in NYC is one of, if not THE poorest communities we have. Raising prices will price out the community and jack the reason why we're even here: to feed the community. This also means that our margins are fucked, but we're making it work. Yes, we look janky asf. I know, we're not "modern" and our aesthetic looks like some tossed together shit from the 60's. Shit, our band saw is from the 80's. But we're clean, we're sanitary, we pass all health standards and inspections, and we're doing our fucking best. We're literally the definition of "no frills." To hear some say it, we'd be considered ghetto. I prefer the term resourceful, so fuck you.
Because we're local and serve local, we only accept cash, EBT, SNAP, and debit. We don't do credit. Venmo is @FourSevenDivisionStreetTrading. PSA as the last one: if you think you can roll up to squeeze us, find out if you're a better shot than I am. Not my job to judge your life choices, but I will send you to someone who will.
I'm the only person here that is fluent in English, so unless you're feeling real brave about pointing at shit and figuring it out, you speak a dialect, know how to read Chinese, or know what cut you're looking for, come on Tuesday and Thursday afternoons (02:00pm - 06:30pm) since that's when I'm directly on the floor. If you're a restaurant and you're looking to keep overhead low, PM me, I'll work something out with you.
Our location is: 47 Division Street Ground Floor New York, NY 10002 B/D to Grand Street, F to East Broadway
Our hours are: Monday - Saturday 0800am - 0630pm
23JUL2020 0323AM Edit: Added beef and lamb, added venmo acc, schedule and times.
25JUL2020 0015AM Edit: Changed schedule to add in Saturday.
submitted by SleepyLi to nyc [link] [comments]

Q2 2020 earnings thread

Didn’t see one posted yet so let this be the megathread that cliff can sticky or whatever. I’ll update this as info comes in and maybe live blog the call if I make it to my computer in time
Webcast info can be found at:
https://ir.tesla.com/events/event-details/tesla-inc-q2-2020-financial-results-and-qa-webcast
The call starts at 2:30pm PDT
Q2 report:
https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/f41f4254-f1cc-4929-a0b6-6623b00475a6
Call live blog (times in PDT):
2:30: "Call starting shortly"
2:32: Tesla director of investor relations
2:33: Elon opening remarks. Good job to the Tesla team. 4th consecutive profitable quarter. Auto industry is down, but Tesla is up.
Next gigafactory is just north of Austin, Texas (15 min from downtown Austin) on the Colorado river. "Boardwalk" and "ecological paradise." Cyber truck, Semi, and 3&y for eastern half of North America. Fremont will do S&X for worldwide and 3&Y for western half of NA. Shout out to Tulsa.
Tesla solar is the cheapest in the US. 30% cheaper than US average. $1.49/w.
New Tesla Model S has a range over 400 miles.
2:39: FSD crap
2:40: Thank you Tesla team again for a full year of profitability. 3 new factories within the next year. "So much to be excited about"!
"Never been more excited for the future of Tesla"
2:42: CFO
Saved costs by laying employees off
Continue reducing costs
$48M FSD recognized
Megapack is profitable
Questions from institutional investors:
Q: *missed the first question, sorry*
Q: Vision for the future
A: FSD on all vehicles. Biggest value increase of any company.
Q: AP. Upcoming self driving milestones
A: Major milestone is transition from "2.5D" (pictures) to "4D" (video) environment. Later this year. Big improvement to process video instead of pictures for FSD... Better than humans. "Orders of magnitude reliability" better. Elon thinks computers are smart.
Q: Alien Dreadnought
A: Putting more work into manufacturing engineering to make the machine that makes the machine. GF1 is alien dreadnought version 0.5. Working towards 1.0. GF Shanghai makes better cars than Fremont. Berlin Model Y will look the same but have more advanced architecture. Integrating design and manufacturing. Vertical integration is important. Increasing CapEx efficiency. "Tesla loves manufacturing!"
Q: How many can Tesla produce in Texas
A: "Right now, 0. Long term, a lot."
Retail:
Q: Tesla Energy
A: Long term Tesla Energy will be same size as Tesla Automotive. Solar, wind, and batteries. Grid scale storage will expand. Auto-bidder is autopilot for battery storage; Like high frequency trading. Makes sure the battery is working correctly and grid satisfied. Main thing about Tesla is cell production at an affordable price (Tesla doesn't manufacture cells though? - me). "Talk more about this at battery day."
Q: Tesla Semi production plans
A: Production will start next year. First few units will be used by Tesla. Mainly between Fremont and Reno/Sparks. Some early units will go to some early adopters. Semi will be awesome. Semi will use nickel based cells. Passenger vehicles will use iron based cells; range of maybe 300 miles in the Chinese market. Use very little cobalt in cells already.
Q: Why is Tesla removing the standard range vehicles
A: "Mining companies, please mine more nickel at high volume." Tesla will sign a long term contract. New normal for range will be ~300 miles.
Q: What is the hold up of Tesla insurance outside of California
A: "Joking before call about quarterly insurance question." "Version 0.9" in California. Use the data captured in the car to assess probability of crash and use that for premium. Take the California product and use it in other states or make other states better; going with the latter. Handful of states by the end of the year. Regulatory approval will be needed. Version 2, Version 3, etc. as they go forward. Car will let you know to "drive better if you want a lower premium." Elon: "#1 thing to take from this call is that Tesla is hiring ... especially insurance." Tesla insurance will be provided for Tesla Network car sharing; not required.
Investors on the line:
Q: Gross margin of vehicles different between factories.
A: GM increased in China. Model Y was profitable in first quarter of production. Model Y is more expensive than Model 3 to produce, but will become closer to the same. Locally sourcing components is "literally rising 5%-10% price improvement per month." Suppliers are eager to support Berlin GF.
Q: Is Tesla aiming for industry leading gross margin. EV credits
A: "We don't run the business to rely on regulatory credits." Revenue from FSD. OpEx continues to come down.
I have to go, so this is it for the call live blogging
submitted by gwoz8881 to RealTesla [link] [comments]

What has Trump actually done? I've done some research...

A little about myself: I have always been a right-leaning financially conservative liberal. Meaning I'm all for newer technologies. I want solar energy, electric cars, auto-driving technologies (Love Musk). I do care about our environment. I do believe LGBT relationships/marriage is awesome. I'm all for Black people having their fair style of policing as well. I hate Nazis, hate Communists, hate racism, sexism, abuse, etc. I hate hate. I love LOVE! I want our government to be LESS controlling and want less taxes. I do NOT believe we should be handing out welfare checks unless IF needed (you just lost a job, sure). If you are sitting on welfare for 10 years....that becomes a problem. I look at BOTH SIDES. I've signed up for newsletters/emails/facebook/twitter groups from both sides. However I've seen that the left has become a socialist groupthink mindset, for example omitting the word God in a few speeches....It's not a BIG deal but small unnoticed details may lead to big overhauls. The censorships of channels, the media attacking conservatives, people getting fired for just having a different political opinion...are you kidding me?? The media turning a blind eye to destruction yet talk about Coronavirus numbers and criminals that are resisting arrest get shot as the cop's fault...however we do need more police training. Cops are aggressive here (I do agree with my liberal friends on that). The double standard: letting people protest for BLM but when the Conservatives tried to protest to go back to work, at the beginning in March/April, they were at fault. Or how CA Gov Newsom stated "You're allowed to protest, but not allowed to have social gatherings"....isn't a protest a type of social gathering.
I don't like to be biased, but holy crap how much I've found what Trump has done for the past 3.5 years is insane!! My point is I look at both sides for politics. Anyways, I decided to do a full day's work with the help of some people to compile a list:
  1. Trump recently signed 3 bills to benefit Native people. One gives compensation to the Spokane tribe for loss of their lands in the mid-1900s, one funds Native language programs, and the third gives federal recognition to the Little Shell Tribe of Chippewa Indians in Montana.
  2. Trump finalized the creation of Space Force as our 6th Military branch.
  3. Trump signed a law to make cruelty to animals a federal felony so that animal abusers face tougher consequences.
  4. Violent crime has fallen every year he’s been in office after rising during the 2 years before he was elected.
  5. Trump signed a bill making CBD and Hemp legal.
  6. Trump’s EPA gave $100 million to fix the water infrastructure problem in Flint, Michigan.
  7. Under Trump’s leadership, in 2018 the U.S. surpassed Russia and Saudi Arabia to become the world’s largest producer of crude oil.
  8. Trump signed a law ending the gag orders on Pharmacists that prevented them from sharing money-saving information.
  9. Trump signed the “Allow States and Victims to Fight Online Sex Trafficking Act” (FOSTA), which includes the “Stop Enabling Sex Traffickers Act” (SESTA) which both give law enforcement and victims new tools to fight sex trafficking.
  10. Trump signed a bill to require airports to provide spaces for breastfeeding Moms.
  11. The 25% lowest-paid Americans enjoyed a 4.5% income boost in November 2019, which outpaces a 2.9% gain in earnings for the country's highest-paid workers.
  12. Low-wage workers are benefiting from higher minimum wages and from corporations that are increasing entry-level pay.
  13. Trump signed the biggest wilderness protection & conservation bill in a decade and designated 375,000 acres as protected land.
  14. Trump signed the Save our Seas Act which funds $10 million per year to clean tons of plastic & garbage from the ocean.
  15. He signed a bill this year allowing some drug imports from Canada so that prescription prices would go down.
  16. Trump signed an executive order this year that forces all healthcare providers to disclose the cost of their services so that Americans can comparison shop and know how much less providers charge insurance companies.
  17. When signing that bill he said no American should be blindsided by bills for medical services they never agreed to in advance.
  18. Hospitals will now be required to post their standard charges for services, which include the discounted price a hospital is willing to accept.
  19. In the eight years prior to President Trump’s inauguration, prescription drug prices increased by an average of 3.6% per year. Under Trump, drug prices have seen year-over-year declines in nine of the last ten months, with a 1.1% drop as of the most recent month.
  20. He created a White House VA Hotline to help veterans and principally staffed it with veterans and direct family members of veterans.
  21. VA employees are being held accountable for poor performance, with more than 4,000 VA employees removed, demoted, and suspended so far.
  22. Issued an executive order requiring the Secretaries of Defense, Homeland Security, and Veterans Affairs to submit a joint plan to provide veterans access to access to mental health treatment as they transition to civilian life.
  23. Because of a bill signed and championed by Trump, In 2020, most federal employees will see their pay increase by an average of 3.1% — the largest raise in more than 10 years.
  24. Trump signed into a law up to 12 weeks of paid parental leave for millions of federal workers.
  25. Trump administration will provide HIV prevention drugs for free to 200,000 uninsured patients per year for 11 years.
  26. All-time record sales during the 2019 holidays.
  27. Trump signed an order allowing small businesses to group together when buying insurance to get a better price
  28. President Trump signed the Preventing Maternal Deaths Act that provides funding for states to develop maternal mortality reviews to better understand maternal complications and identify solutions & largely focuses on reducing the higher mortality rates for Black Americans.
  29. In 2018, President Trump signed the groundbreaking First Step Act, a criminal justice bill which enacted reforms that make our justice system fairer and help former inmates successfully return to society.
  30. The First Step Act’s reforms addressed inequities in sentencing laws that disproportionately harmed Black Americans and reformed mandatory minimums that created unfair outcomes.
  31. The First Step Act expanded judicial discretion in sentencing of non-violent crimes.
  32. Over 90% of those benefitting from the retroactive sentencing reductions in the First Step Act are Black Americans.
  33. The First Step Act provides rehabilitative programs to inmates, helping them successfully rejoin society and not return to crime.
  34. Trump increased funding for Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs) by more than 14%.
  35. Trump signed legislation forgiving Hurricane Katrina debt that threatened HBCUs.
  36. New single-family home sales are up 31.6% in October 2019 compared to just one year ago.
  37. Made HBCUs a priority by creating the position of executive director of the White House Initiative on HBCUs.
  38. Trump received the Bipartisan Justice Award at a historically black college for his criminal justice reform accomplishments.
  39. The poverty rate fell to a 17-year low of 11.8% under the Trump administration as a result of a jobs-rich environment.
  40. Poverty rates for African-Americans and Hispanic-Americans have reached their lowest levels since the U.S. began collecting such data.
  41. President Trump signed a bill that creates five national monuments, expands several national parks, adds 1.3 million acres of wilderness, and permanently reauthorizes the Land and Water Conservation Fund.
  42. Trump’s USDA committed $124 Million to rebuild rural water infrastructure.
  43. Consumer confidence & small business confidence is at an all-time high.
  44. More than 7 million jobs created since election.
  45. More Americans are now employed than ever recorded before in our history.
  46. More than 400,000 manufacturing jobs created since his election.
  47. Trump appointed 5 openly gay ambassadors.
  48. Trump ordered Ric Grenell, his openly gay ambassador to Germany, to lead a global initiative to decriminalize homosexuality across the globe.
  49. Through Trump’s Anti-Trafficking Coordination Team (ACTeam) initiative, Federal law enforcement more than doubled convictions of human traffickers and increased the number of defendants charged by 75% in ACTeam districts.
  50. In 2018, the Department of Justice (DOJ) dismantled an organization that was the internet’s leading source of prostitution-related advertisements resulting in sex trafficking.
  51. Trump’s OMB published new anti-trafficking guidance for government procurement officials to more effectively combat human trafficking.
  52. Trump’s Immigration and Customs Enforcement’s Homeland Security Investigations arrested 1,588 criminals associated with Human Trafficking.
  53. Trump’s Department of Health and Human Services provided funding to support the National Human Trafficking Hotline to identify perpetrators and give victims the help they need.
  54. The hotline identified 16,862 potential human trafficking cases.
  55. Trump’s DOJ provided grants to organizations that support human trafficking victims – serving nearly 9,000 cases from July 1, 2017, to June 30, 2018.
  56. The Department of Homeland Security has hired more victim assistance specialists, helping victims get resources and support.
  57. President Trump has called on Congress to pass school choice legislation so that no child is trapped in a failing school because of his or her zip code.
  58. The President signed funding legislation in September 2018 that increased funding for school choice by $42 million.
  59. The tax cuts signed into law by President Trump promote school choice by allowing families to use 529 college savings plans for elementary and secondary education.
  60. Under his leadership ISIS has lost most of their territory and been largely dismantled.
  61. ISIS leader Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi was killed.
  62. Signed the first Perkins CTE reauthorization since 2006, authorizing more than $1 billion for states each year to fund vocational and career education programs.
  63. Executive order expanding apprenticeship opportunities for students and workers.
  64. Trump issued an Executive Order prohibiting the U.S. government from discriminating against Christians or punishing expressions of faith.
  65. Signed an executive order that allows the government to withhold money from college campuses deemed to be anti-Semitic and who fail to combat anti-Semitism.
  66. President Trump ordered a halt to U.S. tax money going to international organizations that fund or perform abortions.
  67. Trump imposed sanctions on the socialists in Venezuela who have killed their citizens.
  68. Finalized new trade agreement with South Korea.
  69. Made a deal with the European Union to increase U.S. energy exports to Europe.
  70. Withdrew the U.S. from the job killing TPP deal.
  71. Secured $250 billion in new trade and investment deals in China and $12 billion in Vietnam.
  72. Okay’ d up to $12 billion in aid for farmers affected by unfair trade retaliation.
  73. Has had over a dozen US hostages freed, including those Obama could not get freed.
  74. Trump signed the Music Modernization Act, the biggest change to copyright law in decades.
  75. Trump secured Billions that will fund the building of a wall at our southern border.
  76. The Trump Administration is promoting second chance hiring to give former inmates the opportunity to live crime-free lives and find meaningful employment.
  77. Trump’s DOJ and the Board Of Prisons launched a new “Ready to Work Initiative” to help connect employers directly with former prisoners.
  78. President Trump’s historic tax cut legislation included new Opportunity Zone Incentives to promote investment in low-income communities across the country.
  79. 8,764 communities across the country have been designated as Opportunity Zones.
  80. Opportunity Zones are expected to spur $100 billion in long-term private capital investment in economically distressed communities across the country.
  81. Trump directed the Education Secretary to end Common Core.
  82. Trump signed the 9/11 Victims Compensation Fund into law.
  83. Trump signed measure funding prevention programs for Veteran suicide.
  84. Companies have brought back over a TRILLION dollars from overseas because of the TCJA bill that Trump signed.
  85. Manufacturing jobs are growing at the fastest rate in more than 30 years.
  86. Stock Market has reached record highs.
  87. Median household income has hit highest level ever recorded.
  88. African-American unemployment is at an all-time low.(was until Covid bullshit)
  89. Hispanic-American unemployment is at an all-time low.
  90. Asian-American unemployment is at an all-time low.
  91. Women’s unemployment rate is at a 65-year low.
  92. Youth unemployment is at a 50-year low.
  93. We have the lowest unemployment rate ever recorded.
  94. The Pledge to America’s Workers has resulted in employers committing to train more than 4 million Americans.
  95. 95 percent of U.S. manufacturers are optimistic about the future— the highest ever.
  96. As a result of the Republican tax bill, small businesses will have the lowest top marginal tax rate in more than 80 years.
  97. Record number of regulations eliminated that hurt small businesses.
  98. Signed welfare reform requiring able-bodied adults who don’t have children to work or look for work if they’re on welfare.
  99. Under Trump, the FDA approved more affordable generic drugs than ever before in history.
  100. Reformed Medicare program to stop hospitals from overcharging low-income seniors on their drugs—saving seniors 100’s of millions of $$$ this year alone.
  101. Signed Right-To-Try legislation allowing terminally ill patients to try experimental treatment that wasn’t allowed before.
  102. Secured $6 billion in new funding to fight the opioid epidemic.
  103. Signed VA Choice Act and VA Accountability Act, expanded VA telehealth services, walk-in-clinics, and same-day urgent primary and mental health care.
  104. U.S. oil production recently reached all-time high so we are less dependent on oil from the Middle East.
  105. The U.S. is a net natural gas exporter for the first time since 1957.
  106. NATO allies increased their defense spending because of his pressure campaign.
  107. Withdrew the United States from the job-killing Paris Climate Accord in 2017 and that same year the U.S. still led the world by having the largest reduction in Carbon emissions.
  108. Has his circuit court judge nominees being confirmed faster than any other new administration.
  109. Had his Supreme Court Justice’s Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh confirmed.
  110. Moved U.S. Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem.
  111. Agreed to a new trade deal with Mexico & Canada that will increase jobs here and $$$ coming in.
  112. Reached a breakthrough agreement with the E.U. to increase U.S. exports.
  113. Imposed tariffs on China in response to China’s forced technology transfer, intellectual property theft, and their chronically abusive trade practices, has agreed to a Part One trade deal with China.
  114. Signed legislation to improve the National Suicide Hotline.
  115. Signed the most comprehensive childhood cancer legislation ever into law, which will advance childhood cancer research and improve treatments.
  116. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act signed into law by Trump doubled the maximum amount of the child tax credit available to parents and lifted the income limits so more people could claim it.
  117. It also created a new tax credit for other dependents.
  118. In 2018, President Trump signed into law a $2.4 billion funding increase for the Child Care and Development Fund, providing a total of $8.1 billion to States to fund child care for low-income families.
  119. The Child and Dependent Care Tax Credit (CDCTC) signed into law by Trump provides a tax credit equal to 20-35% of child care expenses, $3,000 per child & $6,000 per family + Flexible Spending Accounts (FSAs) allow you to set aside up to $5,000 in pre-tax $ to use for child care.
  120. In 2019 President Donald Trump signed the Autism Collaboration, Accountability, Research, Education and Support Act (CARES) into law which allocates $1.8 billion in funding over the next five years to help people with autism spectrum disorder and to help their families.
  121. In 2019 President Trump signed into law two funding packages providing nearly $19 million in new funding for Lupus specific research and education programs, as well an additional $41.7 billion in funding for the National Institutes of Health (NIH), the most Lupus funding EVER.
  122. Another upcoming accomplishment to add: In the next week or two Trump will be signing the first major anti-robocall law in decades called the TRACED Act (Telephone Robocall Abuse Criminal Enforcement and Deterrence.) Once it’s the law, the TRACED Act will extend the period of time the FCC has to catch & punish those who intentionally break telemarketing restrictions. The bill also requires voice service providers to develop a framework to verify calls are legitimate before they reach your phone.
  123. Israel-UAE peace. More Muslim countries (Countries such as Oman, Morocco, Sudan, Lebanon) said they may follow. Last time Israel and a Muslim country normalized ties was 26 years ago.
  124. US stock market continually hits all-time record highs.
Note: I would like to also add that this list will obviously be very similar to other lists if not the same, since these are facts and not really opinions.
I may have missed some stuff or duplicated a few things. Sorry about that. Please let me know if you have anything to add. Thanks for reading!
submitted by Jules0328 to trump [link] [comments]

The current turmoil in Belarus and its impact to Belarusian-Russian bilateral relations: A few points of consideration

Aleksandr Lukashenko was purportedly re-elected in Belarus's most recent elections. The current turmoil resulted. As is fairly common in certain Eastern European elections, the 80% margin by which he claimed victory gives rise to obvious doubts as to legitimacy. Mass protests and demonstrations resulted. Lukashenko has 'won' past elections by similar margins, at least 85-90%+. Lukashenko has arrested most of his political opponents, and jailed or exiled others. Journalists which report on the extent of his corruption (of which there is no shortage) tend to find themselves in prison. His title as Europe's so called 'last dictator' is well deserved.
The Global Response to Lukashenko's Purported Re-Election
The global response to Lukashenko's purported re-election has been largely as would be anticipated. Western countries -- and specifically the United States, through Mike Pompeo -- have expressed their reservations. The results are self evidently suspect. Despite this, Russia and China both endorsed the results and both countries have officially signaled their endorsement of the results. Notably, Russia historically has been Belarus's strongest and closest ally, the animosity between Putin and Lukashenko in the recent years notwithstanding.
Uncertainty from Russia
Despite the official endorsement from Putin, uncertainty remains as to the future of Russian and Belarusian bilateral relations. Several prominent Russians, including those inside Putin's inner circle, have signaled that the Lukashenko's backing from Moscow is not guaranteed.
Several developments this year contextualize the current status quo. First, negotiations for discounted oil broke down in totality earlier in February 2020. Russia not only suspended deliveries to Belarus, but offered future sales at "market rates" on a purely commercial basis. Second, the oil negotiations broke down after Putin's proposal to merge the two countries was flatly rejected. Natural gas sales were still discounted somewhat, but the lack of a market rate discount for oil sales to Belarus was a significant blow to the integrity of their relationship.
The basic idea here is that when global oil prices were high, Russia could with very little significant loss discount its sales to Belarus to gain favor and geopolitical influence. When oil prices bottomed out -- as they have in recent years -- the costs of that deal to Russia rose, so Russia sought to re-negotiate. In the past, Lukashenko made few concessions (and in fact used the potential of closer ties with the West to extract that concession from Russia, consistent with his historical maneuvering of the animosity between Russia and NATO to his distinct advantage). At the very least, Russia wanted closer economic (and by implication, political) integration; potentially, integration to the level of merging the two countries once Lukashenko left office. Lukashenko predictably rebuked any such proposal.
Shrinking Russian Sphere of Influence
From the outside looking in, it may not make sense why Russia would even want to integrate with Belarus. All doubt however is resolved in consideration of how the other near and distant dominoes seem to be lining up -- each of them to fall outside the Russian sphere of influence. Consider Kazakhstan, for example. Nazarbayev (Kazakh president) has made deliberate efforts to broaden its economic and cultural reach outside the sphere of Russian influence, even to the point that he changed the Kazakh alphabet from Cyrillic to Latin in 2017. The idea was to draw a line in the sand relative to the scope and extent of Russian influence in Central Asia in general and Kazakhstan in particular.
The fact that Russia hemorrhaged allied states following the USSR's collapse is a matter of historical record. Thirteen Warsaw Pact countries have joined NATO. So, when Georgia endeavored to join the EU in 2007, Putin invaded Abkhazia and South Ossetia -- both of which remain allegedly "disputed" territories to this day. A highly deceptive analysis concluded Georgia was to blame; but the whole reason Russia invaded in the first place was because Georgia was actively seeking NATO membership -- of course, to prevent exactly such an invasion. In reality, Russia invaded a sovereign country for the purpose of preventing it from joining NATO. Putin's response shows that in Russia's analysis, Georgia is better as a fragmented state than a NATO ally or EU member.
A similar pattern played out in Ukraine. As I have discussed before, when Ukraine sought closer economic and political integration with Western Europe and the United States, that was met with Russian meddling in Ukraine's domestic politics, even to the point of installing Yanukovych as Russia's puppet Ukrainian president. Thereafter, in the face of maidan, Putin invaded eastern Ukraine and seized Crimea. In the example of Ukraine as in Georgia, the outcome shows that Russia would prefer that Ukraine be a failed or fragmented state than a NATO ally or EU member.
Recall that the goal here was for Putin to create an economic alliance in at least Eastern Europe and Central Asia to rival the EU, and ideally as an insurance policy against further sanctions. The first step in that process would be developing individualized economic integration projects among each of the former Soviet bloc states. Instead, Putin lost Kazakhstan, Georgia, and Ukraine in the span of less than a decade. Ukraine was the first such integration project -- and that resulted in then-president of Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych's absconding Ukraine for Russia in disgrace.
So is Belarus next?
Perhaps. It's a question worth asking; especially considering what "being next" could mean.
In a first set of possible worlds, Lukashenko is out because of his own decisions, or because he is forced out (potentially by the protesters, Russia or both). In 2018-2019, when Russian-Belarusian bilateral relations were at their worst, it's conceivable that Putin might have tried something like he achieved in Ukraine -- but highly unlikely.
It isn't obvious that Putin would be unwilling invade, given in particular the fact that he invaded Georgia and Ukraine under somewhat similar circumstances and that at this moment Lukashenko is very weak. Lukashenko has never faced mass protests/demonstrations of this caliber before. Putin has, and he survived them, but the public's dissatisfaction with Lukashenko's "leadership" is amplified by the uncertainty surrounding the coronavirus, the consequential economic fallout attributable to the world's response to the coronavirus, and an increasingly ravenous lion to the east in its once-closer ally Russia.
This combination of factors certainly suggests that if Moscow sees the opportunity to try to replace Lukashenko with someone more reliable to the Kremlin, that is exactly what the Kremlin would try to accomplish. In that situation, Moscow would be re-running the same play-book it ran to get Yanukovych elected as president of Ukraine. Even if such a far-fetched plan were to work -- and it almost certainly would not, in the short term or the long term -- who would take Lukashenko's place? There is no one that would not leave Moscow worse off than they would be with Lukashenko. While it's obvious why he's not ideal, given the recent history of strife between the two countries, there is no world where Russia's interests are -- at this time -- served by trying to replace Lukashenko with a Kremlin puppet.
In the second set of possible worlds, Lukashenko remains and has to quell or pacify the Belarusian political unrest while maintaining ground against increasing Russian pressure. To accomplish this, Lukashenko could do something like seek a trade deal with the EU, as both Georgia and Ukraine did. But that would almost certainly would involve some kind of military response from Russia, just like Georgia and then Ukraine. While there's an argument to be made that Lukashenko's historically closer relationship with Russia (however complicated) insulates him from the kind of retaliation Putin visited upon Georgia and Ukraine, he would still be playing with fire. The Russian response to that kind of a bargaining chip from Russia would likely not come in the form of unwillingness to discount oil; it would come in the same form as was witnessed in Eastern Ukraine. To be clear, neither Putin nor Lukashenko benefit in that case.
The remaining option is most likely: Lukashenko "cracks down" on the protests, and then everything goes back to normal.
Why Belarus is Different from Ukraine & Georgia
As I wrote before, Belarus is not Ukraine. Maidan in Ukraine was in direct response to Ukrainian government's preventing Ukraine from joining the EU. The Ukrainian government opted for a counter-agreement with Russia instead. In response, Ukrainians took to the streets and sought Yanukovych's resignation. He subsequently fled to Russia. There were other abuses that precipitated the demonstrations, like Yanukovych arresting his pro-democracy political opponents and arresting journalists who were reporting on the extent of his corruption, but the threshold moment was when Yanukovych tried to rebuke the democratic will of the Ukrainian people (shirk the EU in favor of the Kremlin). So, for Ukraine, the goal was a clear and decisive move towards the EU and the United States (and NATO, by implication). This was in response to decades of Kremlin meddling in Ukrainian domestic political affairs. Maidan there was Ukraine setting forth a future for itself that did not include Putin.
Belarus also isn't Georgia. The purported underlying ethnic conflict behind the Russian invasion of Georgia was little more than an illusory pretext; Saakashvili's primary aim for Georgia was to become a NATO member and there was clear support for that in the Bush Administration because of the implications that would have to world oil markets. Specifically, despite the fact that Georgia has no reserves of its own, a pipeline across Georgia would substantially decrease Western dependence on Middle Eastern oil. Bush even outlined a pathway for both Ukraine and Georgia to join NATO. This was intolerable to Putin, and so he invaded as a result.
Belarus and its present situation is almost wholly incongruous. Belarus is now and has always been a far more authoritarian regime than Ukraine ever was, even at its worst. Unlike Ukraine and Georgia, Belarus never made the initial step towards actual democracy that ultimately laid the foundation the Ukrainian maidan or the Georgian efforts to draw closer to the West. Belarus also does not have ambitions of closer ties with the West, and the EU and Untied States in particular -- which Ukraine has sought for some time. Lukashenko only ever used that as a bargaining chip to extract concessions from Moscow -- a fact of which Putin is invariably aware. The riots taking place now in Belarus are not oriented towards any goal in particular, either. It's arbitrary rage. Even if they were oriented towards democratic reform, and it is not clear that they are, Belarus has no intention of divesting itself from the Russian sphere of influence -- however high the costs of maintaining that relationship may be.
Compromise / Cooperation best serve both Belarus's & Russia's Interests
If both Belarus and Russia act rationally, they will cooperate and compromise. Russia will have little choice but to accept the fact that Belarus is not merging with Russia any time soon. The costs of Russia's invading would be inexorably high. There is no one in Belarusian politics that can replace Lukashenko that would be both able to preserve Belarus as a state and that would in the same instance be able to more effectively advance Moscow's interests. Likewise, it is in Russia's interest that these riots and protests throughout Belarus come to and end -- as quickly and expeditiously as possible. Political unrest in one totalitarian country has a tendency to spread to another; as Putin has experienced time and again, dating back to his time in Dresden through the present. Further, this all comes at a time when Russian public confidence in Putin is at an all time low -- and the potential for another Moscow maidan (and perhaps one that might actually be successful) is at an all time high. Given that, the more pertinent question in the final analysis might even be, if Lukashenko falls, is Putin next? Their fates are tied together, whether they like it or not.
submitted by theoryofdoom to geopolitics [link] [comments]

Earning Plays for Dummies: $UA is Under Water (Basic TA & Obvious Catalysts)

Earning Plays for Dummies: $UA is Under Water (Basic TA & Obvious Catalysts)
TL;DR: $UA is taking on a lot of debt because of historically low retail sales causing near bankruptcy cash flow. Largest athletic apparel retailer or not, when the business isn't making money it's losing it. Taking on LARGE amount of debt, to raise cash, to keep the doors open is not the nail in the coffin, but it is damn near close. ER this Friday 7/31 could be a historic miss and future projections, margins, growth and competition will cause a sell off.
Super BEAR: 7/31 $8.50-$9 Puts
Conservative BEAR: 8/14 $7.50-$8 Puts

To Bearish Autists,

Alright retards, this DD is not done by a professional CFA, CPA or single employee LLC day trading firm. I'm a college grad, with a BS in Chemistry, and i'm 100% self taught on trading for the last 5 years. It's a hobby that pays for other hobbies, not a job and definitely not a thing i do without being informed. That being said heres my hypothesis.

$UA Has Struggled

This is no secret as many of us have brand name recognition of $UA and many of us own it. We know its not Nike and it's a step above Champions and other retail store brands, but it is simply the cost efficient/value brand for people that want quality and but aren't willing to pay Nike prices or get chafed nipples from the $WMT brand. It's become the largest athletic apparel brand in the US, with growth potential in China, signing one of the NBAs biggest star Steph Curry.
Heres the problem, the company is facing increased competition and Covid may of burned down the house when they closed retailers. $UA helped prove there is a middle ground between $NKE and $WMT in quality and price, but they failed to build beyond that, and now $AMZN and other other brands have saturated the market. When i need workout clothes, i look online, a small part of $UA business model. I look for value, and although i'm not buying Nike i'm not buying $UA either. There are tons of other brands that provide the same quality cheaper, and i don't care about brand at they gym, just comfort. $UA failed to build a signature style, they got Steph Curry, but i never hear a 24 year old sneaker head dying over their new pair of shoes. They failed to push online channels of distribution, "have you been to their website?", and some compare their pandemic model to $LULU but they are completely different brands by quality, price and consumer segment.
The companies lack of success could be bad marketing, they have the largest athletic apparel market share, but they can't turn a decent YOY earnings report. So it comes down to poor financial management and high levels of competition driving lower margins. In 2016 $UA was nearly $50/share and its lost billions YOY. Now it's facing an unpredictable pandemic, and record low revenue on a house of debt.

Important Factors for ER


  • Covid
The pandemic closed retailers and one of the largest retailers of $UA is Kohl's ($KSS). Because nearly 80% of the companies worth is in their merchandise revenue, this is a major hit. The other 20% is a licensee program that they get from selling the right to 3rd party manufacturers to make and sell the brand. They get revenue from licenses, but i'm not sure about royalties. This means that wholesale manufacturers could sell to other online retailers at a lower competitive rate than $UA if they are crafty enough, and their is supposedly low oversight on this. You can buy $UA on $AMZN but that doesn't mean you will be buying directly from $UA, and this could be true in open retail stores now. from 2017 to Q1 2020 online sales on $UA website have only grown 4%. $UA has had a tough time to have a direct to consumer channel over the past two quarters. The pandemic has lead to huge losses in retail sales, and the brands themselves. This leads us to our next subject.

  • DEBT DEBT & More DEBT
$UA Market Cap: $4.837 Billion
Liabilities: $3.387 Billion (Q1 2020)
Assets: $1.550 Billion (Q1 2020)
Cash is KING and $UA is in desperate need of it with a recent convertible note offering that raised over $400 million dollars. I'm not a finance expert, but here's a snippet that explains the liquidity crunch.

As of March 31, Under Armour had just $959 million in cash. Now, it recently raised another $460 million or so in a convertible note, so its total liquidity is about $1.41 billion. But if it burns through $400 million over the next two quarters, the balance would fall to $600 million or so.
At that point, the company would likely have to raise permanent equity and/or a mixture of equity and debt. Right now the company’s tangible book value per share (TBVPS) is just $1.02 billion, or $2.26 per share, according to data compiled by Seeking Alpha.>So, here is the problem: By the end of Q3, with another $800 million in FCF loses, the tangible book value will fall to $224 million or so, and the TBVPS will be just 49 cents per share. If that’s the case, there is no way that UA stock would still be trading at $9.28 per share, where it was earlier this week.-InvestorsPlace (Mark Hake)
Simply put they need to be frugal and cut cost to prevent bankruptcy. this is shown further in the last two weeks when $UA announced they will sell their running/social app, MyFitnessPal. They also sought to break a sponsorship deal with UCLA to conserve cash (nearly $20mil/year).
The price tag for MyFitnessPal in 2015 was $425million, i don’t think $UA will have a easy time getting anyone to buy it, much less gain on the investment. Also the sponsorship deal isn’t broken, yet, and if they do it may come with a huge monetary penalty....exactly what they want to avoid.
This weeks earnings report will announce a huge amount of new liabilities along with massive reductions in revenue expectations. This is the most important part of the ER this week.

  • China
Good news this week for $UA is that they won a branding lawsuit in China this week...against a competitor that you nor I have and will never hear of.
China is a very interesting component in the American economic and political world. They are a huge market, but politically they are neither our ally nor our foe. India will give us the same problem in 10-15 years. With increased tensions between DC and Beijing the risk of tariffs and american companies suffering are on the rise, especially retail and manufacturing.
However, China presents a huge growth opportunity to whichever lucky retailers and brands can bribe the right officials and not get caught. $UA is one of those lucky companies, but they are competing in a tough sector. Nike, Adidas, New Balance, a zillion new brands that nobody has heard of and of course knock offs. I lived in Shanghai for a year in college, and theirs “Fake mall” everywhere selling the new Jorban’s and Rolex’s and of course $UA and the Chinese government will never stop it because they don’t practice fair trade practices, at least correctly.
30% of revenue for $UA is international business including several asian and european countries and Australia. China could eventually be more of a cash cow than the US for $UA.
The international opportunity is real, but $UA may never see the light at the end of the tunnel due to this dark period of financial ruins and a competitive marketplace.

  • Upside?
The ER for $UA is going to be devastating as it has been in quarters past. you’d be insane to think any differently as the company has only seen worse and worse circumstances with little navigational correction. The only thing that could prevent a total 15-25% downside is some sort of good news. What possible good news could they have, i personally can’t think of any if they are being honest and don’t give BS projections like $TSLA. IF you think of any, or i’m missing any honest upside to this ER please comment.

  • Expectations
EPS: -0.4$ (Big miss)
Revenue: $536mil (Near miss)
Revenue is key, but the Cash flow and added liabilities will be the dagger.

A LITTLE TA & CHART PRICE ACTION

6 month Daily candle
The price of $UA has been hovering around $6.40 & $10.60 for nearly 5 months. $UA has found a solid support at $8.25 and has an upward channel trend, and this has been a very slow recovery relative to other retail brands.
RSI is inching toward overbought. MACD is unsure of the last two months progression and is looking to swing one way or the other after the ER, my bet is down. i expect that $UA will continue on trend nearing $10.60, if the stock price does not fall below the three day trend line(Lilac) then i will wait until thursday afternoon to buy the Puts for the morning ER Call. IF it falls below the lilac line before thursday afternoon i expect my downward channel to be correct and i purchase puts immediately.
Still pondering my strategy for entry and optimizing the return, between there two option ideas.
Super BEAR: 7/31 $9-$9.50
Conservative BEAR: 8/14 $7.50-$8 Puts
$UA has a great value product. It has not done a good job financially due to massive oversight in fiscal management, not creating a better direct to consumer interface, and not being competitive enough in a market with stagnant margins and retail competition that can undercut and or be more popular than the other with celebrities and fashion. $UA is not $LULU, and its drowning in debt with no end in sight. Their model has failed, and their leadership has failed. I suspect retail traders who know $UA by name recognition are propping this up, not understanding their in trouble. As soon as institutional money abandons so will the pocket investors, not to poke fun at you retards.

But hey, i may just be a fucking retard.
P.S. - IF $UA goes under, or is bought out, which athletic apparel company gains the most? My guess is $NKE (long) or $AMZN.
Edit: 7/27 today the SEC notified $UA that they will enforce action against the company for accounting practices seen as fraudulent in 2016 and 2017. It keeps getting worse.
Edit: 7/30 today will most likely be the best opportunity to get cheap 10-20% OTM puts for Friday’s earning call. The stock is shrugged off SEC notices to top executives and a gloomy prediction for earnings. But the market isn’t rational right now, if it ever is, and the stock is looking to squeeze out of its channel past $10.60, and people will take profit before the crash after ER.
Edit: 7/30 AH. 2500 shares pushed the stock up nearly 4%...still expecting big downward projection come morning. Bought 8/14 $8.50 puts this AM.
Edit: 7/30 AH. 10,000 volume pushed the stock up 10% when it moves 1-2% on 5-7 million volume days. I smell stock manipulation by an insider who want to distract from the ER.
Result: AH high of $12.80 and down to $10.25 pre market, I didn’t expect price action to play such a large role in this ER.
Final: watching for 8/14 $8 put, won’t hold till expire most likely. AH/PM on 7/31 was wild and ruined the lotto for 7/31. I’m convinced it was manipulated, why else would a stock increase 25% AH before earnings and drop 27% thereafter from the AH high...in the first hour of trading...they wanted the stock to have buffer and show a new price action target/action...should of dropped below $9 but $9.49 from $12.80 high at least validates my opinion to some degree. $9.31 new support for monday, may blow past support channel at $8.90 and then drop to $8.20 soon after. OR there could be a retracement to the idiotic $12.81. All in all Lost 1% of my account on a yolo, truly retarded.


Daily Candles

1min candles - Note AH pump...
submitted by Miccodaddy to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

What has Trump actually done? I've done some research... (Requested Re-post)

A little about myself: I have always been a right-leaning financially conservative liberal. Meaning I'm all for newer technologies. I want solar energy, electric cars, auto-driving technologies (Love Musk). I do care about our environment. I do believe LGBT relationships/marriage is awesome. I'm all for Black people having their fair style of policing as well. I hate Nazis, hate Communists, hate racism, sexism, abuse, etc. I hate hate. I love LOVE! I want our government to be LESS controlling and want less taxes. I do NOT believe we should be handing out welfare checks unless IF needed (you just lost a job, sure). If you are sitting on welfare for 10 years....that becomes a problem. I look at BOTH SIDES. I've signed up for newsletters/emails/facebook/twitter groups from both sides. However I've seen that the left has become a socialist groupthink mindset, for example omitting the word God in a few speeches....It's not a BIG deal but small unnoticed details may lead to big overhauls. The censorships of channels, the media attacking conservatives, people getting fired for just having a different political opinion...are you kidding me?? The media turning a blind eye to destruction yet talk about Coronavirus numbers and criminals that are resisting arrest get shot as the cop's fault...however we do need more police training. Cops are aggressive here (I do agree with my liberal friends on that). The double standard: letting people protest for BLM but when the Conservatives tried to protest to go back to work, at the beginning in March/April, they were at fault. Or how CA Gov Newsom stated "You're allowed to protest, but not allowed to have social gatherings"....isn't a protest a type of social gathering.
I don't like to be biased, but holy crap how much I've found what Trump has done for the past 3.5 years is insane!! My point is I look at both sides for politics. Anyways, I decided to do a full day's work with the help of some people to compile a list:
  1. Trump recently signed 3 bills to benefit Native people. One gives compensation to the Spokane tribe for loss of their lands in the mid-1900s, one funds Native language programs, and the third gives federal recognition to the Little Shell Tribe of Chippewa Indians in Montana.
  2. Trump finalized the creation of Space Force as our 6th Military branch.
  3. Trump signed a law to make cruelty to animals a federal felony so that animal abusers face tougher consequences.
  4. Violent crime has fallen every year he’s been in office after rising during the 2 years before he was elected.
  5. Trump signed a bill making CBD and Hemp legal.
  6. Trump’s EPA gave $100 million to fix the water infrastructure problem in Flint, Michigan.
  7. Under Trump’s leadership, in 2018 the U.S. surpassed Russia and Saudi Arabia to become the world’s largest producer of crude oil.
  8. Trump signed a law ending the gag orders on Pharmacists that prevented them from sharing money-saving information.
  9. Trump signed the “Allow States and Victims to Fight Online Sex Trafficking Act” (FOSTA), which includes the “Stop Enabling Sex Traffickers Act” (SESTA) which both give law enforcement and victims new tools to fight sex trafficking.
  10. Trump signed a bill to require airports to provide spaces for breastfeeding Moms.
  11. The 25% lowest-paid Americans enjoyed a 4.5% income boost in November 2019, which outpaces a 2.9% gain in earnings for the country's highest-paid workers.
  12. Low-wage workers are benefiting from higher minimum wages and from corporations that are increasing entry-level pay.
  13. Trump signed the biggest wilderness protection & conservation bill in a decade and designated 375,000 acres as protected land.
  14. Trump signed the Save our Seas Act which funds $10 million per year to clean tons of plastic & garbage from the ocean.
  15. He signed a bill this year allowing some drug imports from Canada so that prescription prices would go down.
  16. Trump signed an executive order this year that forces all healthcare providers to disclose the cost of their services so that Americans can comparison shop and know how much less providers charge insurance companies.
  17. When signing that bill he said no American should be blindsided by bills for medical services they never agreed to in advance.
  18. Hospitals will now be required to post their standard charges for services, which include the discounted price a hospital is willing to accept.
  19. In the eight years prior to President Trump’s inauguration, prescription drug prices increased by an average of 3.6% per year. Under Trump, drug prices have seen year-over-year declines in nine of the last ten months, with a 1.1% drop as of the most recent month.
  20. He created a White House VA Hotline to help veterans and principally staffed it with veterans and direct family members of veterans.
  21. VA employees are being held accountable for poor performance, with more than 4,000 VA employees removed, demoted, and suspended so far.
  22. Issued an executive order requiring the Secretaries of Defense, Homeland Security, and Veterans Affairs to submit a joint plan to provide veterans access to access to mental health treatment as they transition to civilian life.
  23. Because of a bill signed and championed by Trump, In 2020, most federal employees will see their pay increase by an average of 3.1% — the largest raise in more than 10 years.
  24. Trump signed into a law up to 12 weeks of paid parental leave for millions of federal workers.
  25. Trump administration will provide HIV prevention drugs for free to 200,000 uninsured patients per year for 11 years.
  26. All-time record sales during the 2019 holidays.
  27. Trump signed an order allowing small businesses to group together when buying insurance to get a better price
  28. President Trump signed the Preventing Maternal Deaths Act that provides funding for states to develop maternal mortality reviews to better understand maternal complications and identify solutions & largely focuses on reducing the higher mortality rates for Black Americans.
  29. In 2018, President Trump signed the groundbreaking First Step Act, a criminal justice bill which enacted reforms that make our justice system fairer and help former inmates successfully return to society.
  30. The First Step Act’s reforms addressed inequities in sentencing laws that disproportionately harmed Black Americans and reformed mandatory minimums that created unfair outcomes.
  31. The First Step Act expanded judicial discretion in sentencing of non-violent crimes.
  32. Over 90% of those benefitting from the retroactive sentencing reductions in the First Step Act are Black Americans.
  33. The First Step Act provides rehabilitative programs to inmates, helping them successfully rejoin society and not return to crime.
  34. Trump increased funding for Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs) by more than 14%.
  35. Trump signed legislation forgiving Hurricane Katrina debt that threatened HBCUs.
  36. New single-family home sales are up 31.6% in October 2019 compared to just one year ago.
  37. Made HBCUs a priority by creating the position of executive director of the White House Initiative on HBCUs.
  38. Trump received the Bipartisan Justice Award at a historically black college for his criminal justice reform accomplishments.
  39. The poverty rate fell to a 17-year low of 11.8% under the Trump administration as a result of a jobs-rich environment.
  40. Poverty rates for African-Americans and Hispanic-Americans have reached their lowest levels since the U.S. began collecting such data.
  41. President Trump signed a bill that creates five national monuments, expands several national parks, adds 1.3 million acres of wilderness, and permanently reauthorizes the Land and Water Conservation Fund.
  42. Trump’s USDA committed $124 Million to rebuild rural water infrastructure.
  43. Consumer confidence & small business confidence is at an all-time high.
  44. More than 7 million jobs created since election.
  45. More Americans are now employed than ever recorded before in our history.
  46. More than 400,000 manufacturing jobs created since his election.
  47. Trump appointed 5 openly gay ambassadors.
  48. Trump ordered Ric Grenell, his openly gay ambassador to Germany, to lead a global initiative to decriminalize homosexuality across the globe.
  49. Through Trump’s Anti-Trafficking Coordination Team (ACTeam) initiative, Federal law enforcement more than doubled convictions of human traffickers and increased the number of defendants charged by 75% in ACTeam districts.
  50. In 2018, the Department of Justice (DOJ) dismantled an organization that was the internet’s leading source of prostitution-related advertisements resulting in sex trafficking.
  51. Trump’s OMB published new anti-trafficking guidance for government procurement officials to more effectively combat human trafficking.
  52. Trump’s Immigration and Customs Enforcement’s Homeland Security Investigations arrested 1,588 criminals associated with Human Trafficking.
  53. Trump’s Department of Health and Human Services provided funding to support the National Human Trafficking Hotline to identify perpetrators and give victims the help they need.
  54. The hotline identified 16,862 potential human trafficking cases.
  55. Trump’s DOJ provided grants to organizations that support human trafficking victims – serving nearly 9,000 cases from July 1, 2017, to June 30, 2018.
  56. The Department of Homeland Security has hired more victim assistance specialists, helping victims get resources and support.
  57. President Trump has called on Congress to pass school choice legislation so that no child is trapped in a failing school because of his or her zip code.
  58. The President signed funding legislation in September 2018 that increased funding for school choice by $42 million.
  59. The tax cuts signed into law by President Trump promote school choice by allowing families to use 529 college savings plans for elementary and secondary education.
  60. Under his leadership ISIS has lost most of their territory and been largely dismantled.
  61. ISIS leader Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi was killed.
  62. Signed the first Perkins CTE reauthorization since 2006, authorizing more than $1 billion for states each year to fund vocational and career education programs.
  63. Executive order expanding apprenticeship opportunities for students and workers.
  64. Trump issued an Executive Order prohibiting the U.S. government from discriminating against Christians or punishing expressions of faith.
  65. Signed an executive order that allows the government to withhold money from college campuses deemed to be anti-Semitic and who fail to combat anti-Semitism.
  66. President Trump ordered a halt to U.S. tax money going to international organizations that fund or perform abortions.
  67. Trump imposed sanctions on the socialists in Venezuela who have killed their citizens.
  68. Finalized new trade agreement with South Korea.
  69. Made a deal with the European Union to increase U.S. energy exports to Europe.
  70. Withdrew the U.S. from the job killing TPP deal.
  71. Secured $250 billion in new trade and investment deals in China and $12 billion in Vietnam.
  72. Okay’ d up to $12 billion in aid for farmers affected by unfair trade retaliation.
  73. Has had over a dozen US hostages freed, including those Obama could not get freed.
  74. Trump signed the Music Modernization Act, the biggest change to copyright law in decades.
  75. Trump secured Billions that will fund the building of a wall at our southern border.
  76. The Trump Administration is promoting second chance hiring to give former inmates the opportunity to live crime-free lives and find meaningful employment.
  77. Trump’s DOJ and the Board Of Prisons launched a new “Ready to Work Initiative” to help connect employers directly with former prisoners.
  78. President Trump’s historic tax cut legislation included new Opportunity Zone Incentives to promote investment in low-income communities across the country.
  79. 8,764 communities across the country have been designated as Opportunity Zones.
  80. Opportunity Zones are expected to spur $100 billion in long-term private capital investment in economically distressed communities across the country.
  81. Trump directed the Education Secretary to end Common Core.
  82. Trump signed the 9/11 Victims Compensation Fund into law.
  83. Trump signed measure funding prevention programs for Veteran suicide.
  84. Companies have brought back over a TRILLION dollars from overseas because of the TCJA bill that Trump signed.
  85. Manufacturing jobs are growing at the fastest rate in more than 30 years.
  86. Stock Market has reached record highs.
  87. Median household income has hit highest level ever recorded.
  88. African-American unemployment is at an all-time low.(was until Covid bullshit)
  89. Hispanic-American unemployment is at an all-time low.
  90. Asian-American unemployment is at an all-time low.
  91. Women’s unemployment rate is at a 65-year low.
  92. Youth unemployment is at a 50-year low.
  93. We have the lowest unemployment rate ever recorded.
  94. The Pledge to America’s Workers has resulted in employers committing to train more than 4 million Americans.
  95. 95 percent of U.S. manufacturers are optimistic about the future— the highest ever.
  96. As a result of the Republican tax bill, small businesses will have the lowest top marginal tax rate in more than 80 years.
  97. Record number of regulations eliminated that hurt small businesses.
  98. Signed welfare reform requiring able-bodied adults who don’t have children to work or look for work if they’re on welfare.
  99. Under Trump, the FDA approved more affordable generic drugs than ever before in history.
  100. Reformed Medicare program to stop hospitals from overcharging low-income seniors on their drugs—saving seniors 100’s of millions of $$$ this year alone.
  101. Signed Right-To-Try legislation allowing terminally ill patients to try experimental treatment that wasn’t allowed before.
  102. Secured $6 billion in new funding to fight the opioid epidemic.
  103. Signed VA Choice Act and VA Accountability Act, expanded VA telehealth services, walk-in-clinics, and same-day urgent primary and mental health care.
  104. U.S. oil production recently reached all-time high so we are less dependent on oil from the Middle East.
  105. The U.S. is a net natural gas exporter for the first time since 1957.
  106. NATO allies increased their defense spending because of his pressure campaign.
  107. Withdrew the United States from the job-killing Paris Climate Accord in 2017 and that same year the U.S. still led the world by having the largest reduction in Carbon emissions.
  108. Has his circuit court judge nominees being confirmed faster than any other new administration.
  109. Had his Supreme Court Justice’s Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh confirmed.
  110. Moved U.S. Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem.
  111. Agreed to a new trade deal with Mexico & Canada that will increase jobs here and $$$ coming in.
  112. Reached a breakthrough agreement with the E.U. to increase U.S. exports.
  113. Imposed tariffs on China in response to China’s forced technology transfer, intellectual property theft, and their chronically abusive trade practices, has agreed to a Part One trade deal with China.
  114. Signed legislation to improve the National Suicide Hotline.
  115. Signed the most comprehensive childhood cancer legislation ever into law, which will advance childhood cancer research and improve treatments.
  116. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act signed into law by Trump doubled the maximum amount of the child tax credit available to parents and lifted the income limits so more people could claim it.
  117. It also created a new tax credit for other dependents.
  118. In 2018, President Trump signed into law a $2.4 billion funding increase for the Child Care and Development Fund, providing a total of $8.1 billion to States to fund child care for low-income families.
  119. The Child and Dependent Care Tax Credit (CDCTC) signed into law by Trump provides a tax credit equal to 20-35% of child care expenses, $3,000 per child & $6,000 per family + Flexible Spending Accounts (FSAs) allow you to set aside up to $5,000 in pre-tax $ to use for child care.
  120. In 2019 President Donald Trump signed the Autism Collaboration, Accountability, Research, Education and Support Act (CARES) into law which allocates $1.8 billion in funding over the next five years to help people with autism spectrum disorder and to help their families.
  121. In 2019 President Trump signed into law two funding packages providing nearly $19 million in new funding for Lupus specific research and education programs, as well an additional $41.7 billion in funding for the National Institutes of Health (NIH), the most Lupus funding EVER.
  122. Another upcoming accomplishment to add: In the next week or two Trump will be signing the first major anti-robocall law in decades called the TRACED Act (Telephone Robocall Abuse Criminal Enforcement and Deterrence.) Once it’s the law, the TRACED Act will extend the period of time the FCC has to catch & punish those who intentionally break telemarketing restrictions. The bill also requires voice service providers to develop a framework to verify calls are legitimate before they reach your phone.
  123. Israel-UAE peace. More Muslim countries (Countries such as Oman, Morocco, Sudan, Lebanon) said they may follow. Last time Israel and a Muslim country normalized ties was 26 years ago.
  124. US stock market continually hits all-time record highs.
Note: I would like to also add that this list will obviously be very similar to other lists if not the same, since these are facts and not really opinions.
I may have missed some stuff or duplicated a few things. Sorry about that. Please let me know if you have anything to add. Thanks for reading!
submitted by Jules0328 to donaldtrump [link] [comments]

[DD] All aboard AXDX!

[DD] All aboard AXDX!
This is my first DD. I feel really good about it. I’m just your average investotradegambler, but do like to dig deep, and think I found something here. Let's go.
TL;DR
Buy AXDX calls. July/Aug/Nov exp. 15-20 strikes. Shoot for 25 for max tendies.
Go long AXDX shares on margin, too.
Why?
  • Experienced investor with an awesome track record of winning as a shareholder (and fighting for shareholder value) recently showed showing extreme confidence in the company ($25MM buy)
  • They are gonna get $ from COVID testing revenues incoming which were not expected in their business plans at all (and this is a relatively low rev company, so the boost will look great)
  • EUA for the tests < 2 weeks away from being announced - we have evidence from other applications that it should be any time now
  • Besides all that, everything on track with their normal core business and it shouldn't be much affected by COVD
Now, for the real story...
It started with a LARGE buy that caught my eye
Actually, a series of buys from Jack Schuler. Schuler has spent over 30 years in the pharmaceutical industry, including having served as President and Chief Operating Officer of Abbott Laboratories. Today, Mr. Schuler serves on the board of directors for several companies, including Accelerate Diagnostics, Quidel Corporation and Biodesix, Inc.
I'll do the math for you: that's $26.7MM of stock purchased during this dip.
OK, so insider sales don't mean everything? We don't panic when we see selling because sometimes people just need to cash out. So we cannot just assume this means anything. Can we?
Looking back at Jack's buying history - this was a v big buy for Jack
Looking back, Schuler is quite active in investing in his companies. But it's not always buys, he does sell. And if you look further back, you actually see some interesting things.
Starting with AXDX: Before the buys shown above, the last time Jack made a slew of purchases was between Aug 11 2017 and May 15 2018 when he purchased $29MM total. Note that this was over the course of a year for an average price of about $20 a share. Prior to those buys, you have to go back to Jan 2017 before he made any other bets.
In other words, Jack just bought as much stock in the last few months than he'd bought in the previous few years.
So it seems like Jack feels really good about buying this dip. Is that enough? Probably... but let's keep going.
Jack has been around the block - and Jack likes winning (Jack gets top $ for Ventana)
He's been quite successful in being an activist that fights for his shareholders. That is a great thing if you are in investor. I managed to stumble across this gem: Jack Schuler historical record of 'dirty tricks' in business. It's truly amazing. It's some dude's salty manifesto about how Jack S is a actually just a bad ass investor.
Back in 2007, Roche wanted to buy Ventana who Jack was an investor in. He has big problems with the initial price that was offered and slowed down the deal. Here's what he said:
"This is about stockholder value," said Ventana chairman Jack Schuler. "Simply put, we believe that Roche is trying to capture value for its stockholders that rightly belongs to Ventana's stockholders." Ironically, as Roche was hailing its offer as a 44% premium on Ventana's stock value of $51.95 on June 22, 2007 (the last trading day before Roche submitted its bid to Ventana), the stock has steadily risen to a recent close of more than $83.
Preach! He's not playing dirty tricks. He wants shareholder value. What's wrong with that? Long story short, the deal was hung up because Jack needed all of his tendies. It eventually went through at a 19.3% premium to Roche's initial offer on June 27, 2007. Well done, Jack! I'd certainly want him to negotiate 20% more for my shares.
Turns out Jack has a history of winning - Jack wins with Stericycle, Medtronic, and more
Digging deeper, Jack (and John Patience, the same one from the screenshot below) did the same trick with Stericycle. The buys referenced in this article were unloaded 4-5 years later for 80-100% profits.
He also did it with Medtronic in 2010. He picked up 30,000 shares at an average price of $36.93 each on June 25. Medtronic is at $93 today ($115 pre-covid) and pays a dividend. That ones seems to have worked out too.
He has other winners too. Jack. Is. A. Winner.
Is that enough?
Honestly, for you degens, yeah it should be. Jack has a strong track record. He thinks $10 is way too cheap, so he just bought an assload. Also, we know he doesn't hate money. A man like that never starts to hate money.
Did I say a COVID tailwind? Yup.
Did I mention that they have a COVID tailwind? I shit you not. It keeps getting better. You know the serology tests that determine if you've had CV? That test for antibodies? Well, turns out AXDX was perfectly set up to capitalize because they can make these. And they are planning to do so!
On top of a slow and steady growth of sales of medical devices, which is AXDX's core business, AXDX can monetize on these tests which will be really important in the coming year as the world learns how to live with COVID (knowing who has had the disease is very important). From the CEO on the earnings call in May:
Lastly, through a recently signed collaboration agreement with BioCheck Ltd, we have begun commercializing the MS-FAST fully automated chemiluminescence immunoassay analyzer and SARS-COV-2 test for the detection of IgG and IgM. This partnership has the potential to provide both an avenue to reengage prospective customers on Pheno as well as a near-term revenue uplift. The performance data for these assays are best-in-class with sensitivity and specificity estimated as exceeding 95% for both assays based on over 100 samples collected at the source of the pandemic, Wuhan, China. Since announcing the partnership on April 15, we have received several indications of interest across the global business.
We are continuing to work with the FDA on our emergency use authorization for commercialization in the U.S., and we have taken initial orders in EMEA. While we are tremendously excited about this collaboration agreement and are eager to play a role in fighting this pandemic, it remains too early to estimate the revenue potential of this opportunity. In my 30 years in diagnostics, I have never experienced a period of such profound disruption. However, with this disruption comes the creation of new opportunities, the near-term impact from this pandemic to accelerate and most other healthcare companies is significant while at the same time shining a brighter light on the value of rapid diagnostics for infectious disease.
Awesome! So, we are stumbling into quite a bit revenue we were not expecting. That's dope. More good news? Yup. The CEO references that their core product (Pheno) now has advantages due to COVID that will help future sales:
And a big part of this will be, in my opinion, will be around how do you better manage infectious disease crises, how do you better manage secondary infections, how do you better manage bed utilization and staff utilization? And those are all things that Pheno directly addresses. I mean Pheno gets patients on optimal therapy much, much quicker, two, three days quicker, and get patients out of the hospital two to five days quicker in some cases. And so with that, I mean, as healthcare providers look at these things, I mean, we fully expect them to be really having a heightened sense of interest in what we're doing in this space.
Is now the time?
I think so. First, let's check AXDX over the past 5 years:
https://preview.redd.it/0o2vw40m3j851.png?width=2734&format=png&auto=webp&s=6bd6870849fbd180cae421c934b8c6f509301dfb
In summary:
  • Lots of ups and down, but pretty consistently shoots above $20 (which will make us tendies)
  • In 2019 (pre-covid), it easily sat in the $18-$22 range.
  • We closed at $15.86 today after touching $17s yesterday and this morning. Profit raking before the weekend in the Hamptons. I'm not worried.
  • Looking back in the news on AXDX, I see no cause for concern. This is just a medical device company that's finally starting to see revenue.
You may notice the spike at the end of the chart...
Let's zoom in to the last three months - a recent run up and dip offer a chance to buy
https://preview.redd.it/fiy5eew34j851.png?width=3356&format=png&auto=webp&s=a868130d3e1a2449542e6822029ece6603088f4e
In the past month:
  • I suspect that others noticed what I have noticed, so it's been up up an away.
  • This week was especially bonkers. Up 5-10% most days. Never seen action like it.
  • But notice that today was a BIG DOWN day after 6 in a row up. It had to cool off. Maybe it cools off more Monday...? It will have reasons to go up soon that have not yet materialized (more below)
  • I see no reason why we wouldn't be headed back to ranges that it was safely in last year... especially with the tailwinds due to testing revenue, Jack S's confidence, and the recovery of markets (though AXDX is hardly affected by the shutdown).
Buy the dip, before the EUA approval!
Remember those serology tests? AXDX is within weeks, by my estimate, of getting those approved for use. What pharma company doesn't love a nice FDA approval pop?
So when will it happen? Some digging: if you check here, you can see that the FDA is pumping out these approvals.
Beckman Coulter was a recent company to get the approval, this Monday on June 29, to deliver 30MM tests a month. If you check back on their press releases, they were chirping about this in late April. So this process for them took ~2 months.
Going back to AXDX's last conference call (May 8), we can read between the lines:
We recently filed for FDA emergency use authorization for our Pheno respiratory test kit, positioning its benefits for ventilated COVID-19 patients. If approved, this authorization will provide accelerate an avenue to reengage prospective and current customers, obtain useful analytical and clinical data on this new test and help some affected patients.
And in the Q+A:
We have an EUA submitted, as I mentioned, for IgG and IgM combo test. We're also going to be submitting an EUA for individual tests for both IgG and IgM over the next couple of days. The FDA has already come back to us with a few pieces of data that we need to follow up on which is pretty standard.
And we're working on that now. And in addition to that, I would say that we are submitting for a 510(k) for the MS-FAST instrument, and we're working on that currently as well with the consultant. Accelerate is the authorized legal agent for BioCheck. And so we're basically spearheading all of the dialogue between the FDA and this opportunity which is a good thing because of the vast experience we have with the FDA already.
And so our expectation is, again I guess to be clear, there's been no setback at all relative to our submission. And the new guidance that has come out. And then the last thing I would say is the performance data that we have already submitted with the FDA is excellent data. And it already meets the requirements that they have called out.
Our sensitivity and specificity for both the IgG and IgM test or are both very solid. And again, we're continuing to work with the FDA and hope to hear some positive outcomes here over the next couple of weeks.
By the looks of it, from the statements and how press released line up, AXDX was also writing press releases in April about this, they applied to the FDA in late April or early May. Given that Beckman Coulter's process took about 2 months... I think we could be very very close to an announcement, and I'd certainly expect it before 7/17 (cough - calls - cough). [I checked a few other EUA timelines, and ~2 months is about right]
That's it. What else do you need? Go buy some AXDX because:
  • Experienced investor with an awesome track record of winning as a shareholder (and fighting for shareholder value) recently showed showing extreme confidence in the company ($25MM buy)
  • They are gonna get $ from COVID testing revenues incoming which were not expected in their business plans at all (and this is a relatively low rev company, so the boost will look great)
  • EUA for the tests < 2 weeks away from being announced - we have evidence from other applications that it should be any time now
  • Besides all that, everything on track with their normal core business and it shouldn't be much affected by COVD
What's not to like?
My positions
Jacked to the tits on 10, 12.5, 15, 17.5, and 20 calls expiring in July, Aug, and Nov. Probably $25k across those. Then another $25k or so of shares. I think I'm just over $50k invested.
submitted by hammerfrog to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Your Pre Market Brief for 07/22/2020

Pre Market Brief for Wednesday July 22nd 2020

You can subscribe to the daily 4:00 AM Pre Market Brief on The Twitter Link Here . Alerts in the tweets will direct you to the daily 4:00 AM Pre Market Brief in this sub.
Updated as of 4:00 AM EST
-----------------------------------------------
Stock Futures:
Tuesday 07/21/2020 News and Markets Recap:
Wednesday July 22nd 2020 Economic Calendar (All times are Eastern)
News Heading into Wednesday July 22nd 2020
NOTE: I USUALLY (TRY TO) POST MANY OF THE MOST PROMISING, DRAMATIC, OR BAD NEWS OVERNIGHT STORIES THAT ARE LIKELY IMPORTANT TO THE MEMBERS OF THIS SUB AT THE TOP OF THIS LIST. PLEASE DO NOT YOLO THE VARIOUS TICKERS WITHOUT DOING RESEARCH. THE TIME STAMPS ON THESE MAY BE LATER THAN OTHERS ON THE WEB.
Upcoming Earnings:
Commodities:
COVID-19 Stats and News:
Macro Considerations:
Most Recent SEC Filings
Other
-----------------------------------------------
Morning Research and Trading Prep Tool Kit
Other Useful Resources:
The Ultimate Quick Resource For the Amateur Trader.
Subscribe to This Brief and the daily 4:00 AM Pre Market Brief on The Twitter Link Here . Alerts in the tweets will direct you to the daily brief in this sub
It is up to you to judge the accuracy and veracity of these headlines before trading.
submitted by Cicero1982 to pennystocks [link] [comments]

Kodak is overvalued due to their convertible note structure and the suspicious nature of the announcement

Kodak is overvalued, although not for the reasons that most say. I do think its entirely possible for Kodak to use its chemical engineering expertise to manufacture the APIs (Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients) needed for generic drugs, especially with over 700 million and the government's blessing. Japanese company Fujifilm has done something similar, where they went from a chemical film company to one of Japan's leading pharma companies. However, there are several challenges that I think outweigh the potential for Kodak's stock to do well in the long run.
1.) Convertible Notes - Kodak has a convertible note expiring in November of 2021 giving the holder (Southeastern Asset Management) the "right to elect at any time to convert their Notes into shares of Common Stock" at a rate of 314.9785 shares per $1000 principal. Since the original note was a loan of $100 million, there are ~31 million more shares that, if exercised, could dilute current shareholders significantly.
2.) Business - the API business is hyper competitive with low margins and high costs (the whole reason why drug companies source from China and India in the first place) and there is no guarantee that downstream drug companies would buy from Kodak unless mandated by the government.
3.) Desperation Attempt - in the quarterly earning not too long before, Kodak stated that there was a "going concern" risk for the business moving forward (a huge red flag). The loan comes at an all too perfect time for Kodak, and could be potentially seen as a way for Kodak to secure cash, first and foremost.
4.) Previous Management Shenanigans - Kodak has done a similar stunt before when they announced an ICO called KodakCoin, a coin aimed at photographers. The stock surged following the announcement at CES 2018 up 300% before crashing back down after the ICO was pushed back and then cancelled. According to SEC filings, there was significant insider buying in the executive ranks the day of the announcement.
5.) Current Management Shenanigans? - Acute investors noted that the volume before the announcement was multiples of what Kodak normally trades, indicating that somebody was buying in. Management was also granted stock options the day before the Trump announcement. Kodak says its to protect management from being diluted due to the convertible note, but Kodak acknowledged in the 8-K the day the convertible was signed that it could potentially mean a transfer of ownership AND protection from dilution would not be a problem unless there was some catalyst (i.e. Trump announcement) to justify Southeastern Asset Management to convert to equity. Enough media coverage could put enough pressure on the SEC to investigate, especially if Biden takes office in November. This could spell bad news for the stock price if there was some form of insider trading or illegal activity.
6.) Silence from Kodak - this news was more like a "letter of intent" meaning that nothing is set in stone. Kodak has not filed an 8-K detailing the transaction, nor released a press release, meaning for us investors we do not know the details of the loan or how exactly management intends to use it.
submitted by mediusresearch to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Defense stocks - what the heck is going on

I've had discussion with a couple people on why defense is doing so poorly right now, wanted to get a broader general opinion. I'm going to leave BA and RTX out because of their large commercial exposure but leave in GD, HII and LHX since it's much smaller. I'll focus on a core of LMT/NOC/GD/LHX/HII but this can be extended to others like KTOS, LDOS, CACI etc. Here are today's closing prices for reference:
LMT - $354 / NOC - $304 / GD - $145 / LHX - $168 / HII - $168
Defense stocks - what the heck is happening?
Taking a look over the last month:
LMT is down 15% / NOC is down 12% / GD is down 13% / LHX is down 19% / HII is down 18%
And the question is why? Particularly in the case of NOC and LMT that are as close to pure plays as you can get - why are defense contractors hemorrhaging? Some of these are trading near their post-March crash lows
1 - Revenue is nearly unaffected by COVID, and backlogs keep growing
Defense contracts have long award processes and are usually multi-year and booked in advance. Here are some of the ridiculous backlog sizes from the first quarter
LMT - backlog of $144 billion
NOC - backlog of $64 billion
GD - backlog of $86 billion
LHX - not sure? Didn't see it in the May earnings call - It's somewhere near $20 billion for the end of last year and the book to bill increased slightly, so somewhere around there
HII - backlog of $42 billion
LMT and NOC noted that COVID would have insignificant impacts to revenue and fronted payments to their suppliers in some cases to help them out. Most contractors had a positive book to bill with increased sales and increasing margins
2 - Target prices are miles away and a ton of buy ratings
I'm going to pull some average target prices from WSJ
LMT - average $430, upside of 21%
NOC - average $389, upside of 28%
GD - average of $171, upside of 18%
LHX - average of $240, upside of 42%
HII - average of $222, upside of 32%
3 - Defense spending is not shrinking any time soon, tensions are rising
The new National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) has been flying through approvals, and allocated $741B for spending. The current bill is allocated at $738B. This flew through the Senate Armed Services Committee with a 25-2 pass and will probably pass both Senate and House, as it seems defense spending is the one thing every one agrees on. And we are not the only nation increasing spending
US and China relations have deteriorated. Australia just announced a big beef up, raising their spending goal over the next decade from $135B to $187B. Japan's been increasing their spending for years, as has SK and everyone else in the region. Big wins for companies like RTX, LMT and others involved
Europe has been flat but Middle East is buffing up. India over the winter announced the purchase of several billion in US helicopters and imports will probably grow if tensions with China continue
4 - Not dependent on a China trade deal
Sticking this here due to futures crashing briefly overnight after Navarro made his late night comments a couple weeks ago. If things do go south with that deal, it will not effect revenue
Not to mention pluses such as a nice dividend, industry preference towards established giants due to high entry costs, etc. Hilariously enough, I found an old article from the end of 2018 that had the same feeling I do now
https://www.barrons.com/articles/defense-stocks-are-lagging-and-there-are-no-good-reasons-why-51544614201
After this article was written, defense had a major major outperform year in 2019. LMT stock price grew 50% in 2019 for instance, similar to NOC
So - what gives? Is defense really just not sexy? Are these companies just thrown in with industrials and traded in step with the rest of the market? Am I crazy?
EDIT: full disclosure I do have calls on NOC and LMT
submitted by dweeegs to stocks [link] [comments]

HPE: Transition to As-a-Service and Path to All-Time Highs

COVID-induced demand pressures for enterprise hardware and recent execution issues have HPE shares trading at 4-year lows and down 41% YTD. However, HPE-as-a-Service strategy starting to show real momentum.
Combined with advancements in edge-to-cloud infrastructure offerings, HPE among best values in large cap tech for investors looking to gain exposure to edge networking, distributed computing, and remote working trends. Here's why:
Background
What is HPE exactly? It is a question that HPE itself has found difficult to answer in the five years since splitting off from the original Hewlett Packard (HPQ). At the time of the split, HPE was more or less described as everything but the PCs and printers. It was a lot of hardware, software, services, but without a clear strategy on how to win in the age of the cloud.
As other companies from the PC era, like Microsoft, Dell, and Intel, effectively pivoted their businesses to compete in the cloud and data center, HPE experienced a combination of false starts, missteps, and inconsistent execution. Following its most recent quarterly report in May, an earnings miss coupled with a new cost-cutting initiative sent shares down 10%. And the company now trades at levels not seen since early 2016.
With HPE trading at less than 7x forward earnings, markets seem to be pricing in a low probability of a turnaround. However, despite difficulties in gaining traction as a standalone company, it may not be time to give up on HPE just yet. Revenue misses in six consecutive quarters and fears over another round of restructuring are distracting from early signs of success in HPE’s transformation to an as-a-service company.
With the mega cap and hyper-growth tech trade looking a little overheated on a valuation basis, HPE could present an attractive way to gain exposure to multiple long-term technology trends – namely edge networking, distributed computing, and remote work – while also benefiting from a stabilization and recovery in enterprise hardware IT spend once the COVID-19 induced headwinds subside.
Summary
HPE 1.0 and 2.0: How We Got Here
HPE 1.0
When HPE was still part of the combined HPE-HPQ, the company had attempted to carve out share in the public cloud and was unsuccessful. Having shuttered that business in 2015, HPE sought to position itself as a more focused and agile end-to-end infrastructure solutions company. This was the strategic rationale behind the decision to merge its enterprise services division with CSC in 2017. The resulting DXC Technology became a pure-play IT services and consulting company. HPE then sold the majority of its enterprise software, database, and analytics offerings to UK-based Micro Focus.
HPE 2.0
Around the time of the spin-merger with Micro Focus, HPE revealed its “HPE Next” strategy to fundamentally redesign the company over a three-year period. Although HPE stated its desire to streamline operations, optimize manufacturing, and improve its go-to-market approach, HPE Next was mostly workforce optimizations, or in other words: layoffs. HPE Next did contribute to improvements in EPS numbers from 1Q18 to 4Q19, but following a modest increase in revenue over the first four quarters under the plan, sales have been stagnant or lower in each of the subsequent reports.
2Q20 Earnings
As part of HPE’s 2Q20 earnings release, the company announced yet another restructuring plan aimed at conserving capital, flexibility, and liquidity given the uncertainty surrounding the global pandemic. The cost-cutting calls for at least $1bn in targeted gross savings by 2022. Together with a 15% decline in revenues year-over-year when holding for currency fluctuations, analysts were quick to issue six downgrades. These numbers do not tell the whole story though. In the face of a tough pricing environment for hardware, gross margins were stable at 32% compared to last year. And several critical business segments showed signs of relative strength in light of the broader market context.
HPE’s big data solutions grew 61% year-over-year, with storage services from the Nimble business unit jumping 20%. HPE’s edge networking segment that houses HPE Aruba only saw declines of 2%. And HPE’s flagship as-a-service offering, HPE GreenLake, saw its annual revenue run rate increase 17% to $520mn. HPE GreenLake is now the company’s best performing business according to CEO Antonio Neri. When considering HPE exited the quarter with a $1.5bn backlog, or 2x historical levels, it’s very likely that procurements were delayed or rescheduled rather than canceled. Because of this, once IT departments have greater visibility into the crisis, HPE should be poised to see a sharp recovery in its hardware-focused reporting segments.
HPE 3.0: HPE-as-a-Service
After years of difficulties defining its value proposition in the new computing landscape, HPE appears to have developed a distinct approach to leverage its networking, computing, storage, and software capabilities and bundle them into a fully integrated edge-to-cloud platform. The strategy, HPE-as-a-Service, aims to offer every single HPE product on a pay-per-use subscription basis by 2022. The company’s new IT equipment and services package, HPE GreenLake, takes a range of products selected by the customer and provides a simplified management console and on-demand toolkit for the entire hybrid cloud setup. As HPE further transitions towards the as-a-service model, HPE GreenLake, as well as its advancements in edge networking and performance computing, could lead to greater market share in multiple segments of hybrid IT spend.
HPE GreenLake
As enterprise IT becomes increasingly hybrid – i.e. a mixture of on-premise and off-premise computing power – organizations have seen management of these systems become more siloed. As a result, companies are seeing greater demands on their IT staff, inconsistent user experiences or application performance, or lower visibility or risk control across networks.
HPE GreenLake is a bundled-service offering that enables customers to select only the capabilities that they need and to deploy them faster, with less management, and at a lower CAPEX risk. Through its metering features, GreenLake makes it much easier for companies to scale computing resources up or down, thereby enhancing flexibility while also allowing IT teams to offload management of hybrid cloud resources to HPE’s operations center.
Once customers sign up for HPE GreenLake, they select from 15 cloud services like machine learning, virtual machines, big data, networking, storage, or compute. HPE promises to have the chosen services delivered and operational within 14 days. And GreenLake runs on top of existing Amazon AWS or Microsoft Azure cloud computing environments, making the transition seamless.
According to HPE, GreenLake reduces time-to-market for IT deployments by 75%, reduces CAPEX by 40% once in-use, and delivers 147% return on investment and total payback within 12 months. Improving deployment efficiencies not only conserves staffing resources and expands business productivity, it reduces the need for companies to invest in IT infrastructure before they are ready. Because HPE GreenLake is pay-per-use, customers can prevent overprovisioning of resources and eliminate expenses associated with technology refreshes, all the while ensuring adequate posture to accommodate usage spikes when on-premise compute is not sufficient. Customer satisfaction for GreenLake is extremely high, with HPE reporting 99% retention rate for contract customers currently subscribed to the platform.
The Edge, Distributed Computing, and Remote Work
Even though COVID-19 sparked some near-term challenges for enterprise hardware demand, the pandemic has also accelerated much longer-term trends related to computing and working – trends that should benefit HPE. As companies increasingly leverage computing power at the edge, and as work becomes more and more distributed and remote, the comprehensive end-to-end edge networking platform developed by HPE Aruba and recently-acquired Silver Peak could lead to share gains in multiple end markets projected to grow for the rest of the decade.
According to Cisco, by 2025, 75 billion devices will be connected to the internet. Between the combination of IoT and the growing number of user devices consuming larger amounts of content digitally, the global datasphere is forecasted to roughly triple by then. And at that time 75% of enterprise-generated data is expected to be processed at the edge. In a widely distributed computing environment with exponentially greater data loads, it will become even more vital for IT purchasers to invest in and maintain the right set of networking tools to compete in the future.
HPE Aruba
HPE Aruba provides a range of wired and wireless data center and edge networking solutions, including Wi-Fi 5 and Wi-Fi 6 products, access points and gateways, as well as network switches for both data center and edge locations. Although HPE Aruba has pushed into SD-WAN, historically its business has been driven by WAN and WLAN hardware and services. A WAN, or wide-area network (WAN) is a collection of local-area networks (LANs) or other networks that communicate with one another. A WAN is essentially a network of networks (like a much smaller internet). WLAN is simply a wireless LAN that connects computers and network devices wirelessly.
While the enterprise WLAN market actually fell 2.2% year over year in Q1 2020 due to COVID-19, WLAN is forecasted to grow at over 20% annually the next five years on the back of technology refreshes associated with the new Wi-Fi 6 standard (enterprise WLAN was a $1.3bn market in Q1) and increased adoption of Internet-of-Things (IoT) devices. And HPE Aruba is currently the #2 leader in market share at 14.4% after Cisco at 45.7%.
Perhaps where HPE Aruba is set to deliver the strongest results over the long-term, though, is in its newly announced edge networking architecture called the Edge Services Platform (ESP). Aruba ESP is the industry’s first AI-powered platform designed to unify, automate, and secure edge networking. Aruba ESP leverages artificial intelligence to simplify IT operations management as well as accelerate and automate troubleshooting in distributed IT environments. With built-in Zero Trust Security, ESP secures all access across your network. And the platform also provides unified infrastructure so that WLAN, LAN, and SD-WAN resources can be singularly monitored and optimized across branch, campus, remote, and data center locations.
This is important because the promise of the edge is in the ability to more rapidly acquire real-time data so that it can be more quickly analyzed and acted upon. By deploying integrated networking and analytics at the edge, Aruba ESP can enable businesses to optimize process efficiency, boost security, and increase reliability. This capability removes the previous need to send data to a remote data center location or third-party company for analytics.
Silver Peak
HPE’s acquisition of Silver Peak is a great strategic investment to further build out its integrated edge product portfolio. With the strength of HPE Aruba in WAN/WLAN, HPE will soon be able to offer market-leading SD-WAN solutions alongside its AI-powered intelligent edge platform, making for a very compelling and comprehensive product suite for enterprise customers.
SD-WAN, or software-define WAN, uses software to replicate (virtualize) functionalities that traditionally were housed within hardware. What this allows for is functions to then be remotely monitored and controlled. It makes network management simpler, bolsters security, and enables much more efficient network routing. Despite being one of the few remaining independent SD-WAN players, Silver Peak has carved out a spot near the top of the market.
The company counts over 1,500 customer deployments for its Unity EdgeConnect™ SD-WAN edge platform, and Silver Peak is consistently among the five largest vendors with over 7% market share in a field that includes heavyweights such as Cisco and VMware. The SD-WAN sector hit $1.9bn in 2019, but industry estimates expect it to reach $8bn by 2025 – delivering compounded annual growth of nearly 35%. Having been named by Gartner as one of two leaders (alongside Cisco) in its SD-WAN magic quadrant for two consecutive years, a combined HPE Aruba-Silver Peak solution is primed to capture even more market share for enterprise customers would like to pursue a multi-vendor strategy or diversify away from over-reliance on Cisco.
The Path to Gaining Share in Computing
Composable Infrastructure
HPE’s software-define infrastructure innovations extend to computing as well, namely with HPE Synergy which started shipping in early 2017. HPE Synergy is a new category of computing infrastructure designed to bridge non-cloud-native and cloud‐native applications. Non-cloud-native applications are applications that exist with persistent storage and usually have a fixed number of network connections. This contrasts with cloud-native applications which are designed for a cloud environment. As much as services are being shifted to the cloud, for some companies, applications have existed in non-native states for so long that it could be risky and costly to move to the cloud or could require significant time and resource planning. This is where composable infrastructure and HPE Synergy steps in.
Composable infrastructure treats compute, storage, and network devices as pools of resources that can be tactically provisioned as needed depending on the requirements of distinct workloads. It can be instantly flexed to meet the needs of any application or any workload, and it is ideal for a hybrid cloud environment. DellEMC released its version of a modular composable server halfway through 2018, and a startup named Liqid is also in the space.
Past studies have put average server utilization rates between 15-35% because typical server designs have fixed amount of resources provisioned against disparate application needs. In a study commissioned by HPE, enterprise data center respondents reported that only 45% of infrastructure was provisioned most of the time, leaving over half of a company’s valuable computing resources unused. Although converged and hyperconverged infrastructure also combine computing, networking, and storage, only composable infrastructure is not preconfigured for specific workloads. On top of that, composable is more scalable than hyperconverged which can be limited to 20-30 nodes.
HPE Synergy thus greatly reduces dedicated IT staff time to deploy servers or install firmware, increases productivity, and lowers procurement and operating costs. HPE Synergy is estimated to deliver three-to-one return-on-investment for IT customers over a five-year period. With composable infrastructure projected to follow hyperconverged systems and hit nearly $5bn in sales by 2023, Synergy could provide HPE yet another competitive product advantage to carve out share in a healthier IT hardware procurement environment.
HPE Cray Supercomputers and Big Data
In addition to traditional IT infrastructure, product advancements in high performance computing also have HPE positioned to gain new customer wins and develop the reporting segment into a larger contributor to the top line over time. Although the term supercomputing has been around for a few years, for many it continues to be an abstract or futuristic concept without tangible applications for today. But as tens of billions of internet-connected machines come online over the next decade, the amount of structured and unstructured data being generated will become that much harder to translate into valuable or actionable insights. That is why supercomputing can play a major role in solving the most data-intensive challenges facing corporations and governments worldwide.
The US and China have been engaged in heavy competition in recent years to create faster and faster supercomputers, and other countries like Japan are also starting to get involved. Currently supercomputers are used in the fields of life sciences, genomics, manufacturing, weather, and nuclear science. However, in the age of IoT and zettabyte-scale datasets, much more powerful computers will be necessary to fully take advantage of big data analytics and artificial intelligent capabilities.
The fastest exascale-class supercomputer in the world today is an HPE Cray supercomputer named El Capitan. The system, which will be delivered to the US Department of Energy’s Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory by 2023, is 10x faster than the runner-up. This market is still extremely nascent, and supercomputing is only a portion of the 9% of HPE revenues generated by the High Performance Compute & Mission Critical Systems (HPC MCS) segment’s. But as the market becomes more mature, HPE GreenLake will provide a stronger ability to cross-sell supercomputing products to very large-scale organizations – a major advantage for HPE Cray compared to when it was a standalone company.
Conclusion
Recent weakness in HPE shares following Q2 earnings have largely priced-in near-term risks associated with COVID-induced demand pressures for enterprise hardware solutions. With shares down 41% YTD, the company is trading at 6.63X forward earnings and 0.44x sales. These multiples are both among the lowest levels relative to other large cap IT hardware peers such as Dell (10.99 forward P/E), Cisco (13.81 forward P/E), or IBM (11.16 forward P/E).
Despite difficulty formulating an effective cloud strategy in the years following the split from HP, HPE has multiple growth drivers with exposure to critical long-term computing, networking, and working trends. As HPE further develops its business into a fully service-based, pay-per-use model, revenue and earnings should become increasingly stable and less subject to near-term demand shocks as has been seen so far in 2020.
Although management’s cost saving plan announced in May was poorly received by the markets, strong sales visibility by virtue of the $1.5bn quarterly contract backlog means that HPE’s struggles will likely be short-term. Combined with cost reductions, as enterprise hardware spending picks back up, the company should experience gross margin improvements, earnings growth, and multiple expansion.
Together with the more targeted approach as an edge-to-cloud infrastructure service provider, HPE currently presents one of the best values in large cap tech for investors looking to gain exposure to edge networking, distributed computing, and remote working trends over the next 5-10 years.
You can find me on Twitter @BlackjacketCo where I write about emerging technologies and long-term market trends. Thanks for reading!
submitted by bumblebear3012 to stocks [link] [comments]

What is Margin Trading? Margin Trading kya Hota hai ... Margin Trading 101: How It Works - YouTube WHAT IS MARGIN, & HOW TO CALCULATE MARGIN FOR INTRADAY TRADING. What is Margin Trading?  Fidelity - YouTube Learn Crypto Trading: Margin Trading

Margin trading is a legitimate risk and rewards investing proposition. Know both sides of the equation before getting involved. Dow Tests Record Highs on US-China Trade, Vaccine Optimism August 2006 marked an important development in China’s securities market – on a trial basis, China will allow certain elected securities companies to engage in margin trading and securities lending business. Effectively, securities companies will be able to offer margin trading in listed securities to clients and also to lend listed securities to clients for […] Margin trading—where leverage is part of the trading strategy—is highly regulated in China. However, fintech platforms created a shadow sector where average retail investors were able to trade with leverage as much as 20 to 1. According to data from China Securities Financial Corporation, which refinances margin trading and has liquidity support from China's central bank, margin financing loans in June were 33% higher This chapter focuses on the disordered warrants price market problem, prevailing before the introduction of short selling and margin trading in China's stock market, and how the introduction of the margin trading and short selling on March 31, 2010 will provide more completeness to Chinese markets by preventing abnormally high stock prices.

[index] [745] [1999] [2185] [319] [2519] [1892] [1400] [1835] [1510] [2900]

What is Margin Trading? Margin Trading kya Hota hai ...

WHAT IS MARGIN TRADING AND SEBI NEW RULES . Growpunji. Loading... Unsubscribe from Growpunji? ... Tucker: CNN omits any mention of China to NBA chief - Duration: 3:41. What is margin trading? What is a margin? What is the difference between a cash account and a margin account? In episode #34 of Real World Finance we dive de... Learn what is Margin Trading in stock markets, how can we do margin trading, and is it good to do margin trading? Know all about Margin Trading in this video... Have you always wondered what it means to trade on margin? In this video, you’ll learn what margin trading is and if it is a strategy that could help you ach... Avoid Margin Trading - Secret of Intraday Trading Success (Hindi) - Duration: 16:59. Nitin Bhatia 262,312 views. 16:59. Demand and supply trading strategy basic overview - Duration: 18:32.

#