1) The CBA extension runs through September 15, 2026 (unless there are insufficient funds in the Escrow Account on June 30, 2025, in which case the CBA is extended an additional year) 2) The upper limit for the 2020/21 season is $81.5M, midpoint is $70.9M, and lower limit is $60.2 (same as the 2019/20 season). The cap will remain at $81.5M until Hockey Related Revenue (HRR) for a completed season reaches $3.3B. It will be between $81.5M and $82.5M on a pro rata basis in seasons where Preliminary HRR is between $3.3B and $4.8B. Then will increase by $1M per year until the Escrow Balance is paid off, unless agreed upon by both parties. After Escrow has been repaid but not earlier than the establishing of a cap for the 2023/24 season, a lag formula will be used such that the year-over-year increase in the cap will be between a maximum of the lesser of 5% and the trailing two-year average HRR growth percentage and a minimum (except for the 2026-27 season) of the lesser of 2.5% and the trailing two-year average HRR growth percentage. 3) Escrow is caped at:
14% if Preliminary HRR for 2020/21 exceeds $3.3B. 18% if it is below $1.8B. Pro-rata rate in between.
Entirety of April 15, 2020 payroll deposited into Escrow. 100% of funds held in Escrow Account for 2019/20 season; and for future seasons until 1) the Escrow Balance is less than $125M or the beginning of the 2023/24 season (whichever is sooner), and 2) HRR exceeds $4.8B in a season; are released to the League. The NHL waives it's right to reduce or eliminate player salaries for the 2019/20 and 2020/21 seasons based solely on the COVID-19 pandemic. 4) 10% of each player's 2020/21 NHL salary plus signing bonus are deferred without interest to be paid (in full) in 3 equal payments on October 15 of 2022, 2023, and 2024. This does not affect calculations of AAV towards the payroll range. 5) If the 2020/21 regular season starts after November 15, "Roster Freeze Players" (players in the NHL at 5pm ET on March 16 and who played at least 1 NHL regular season game in the 2019/20 season) signed to an SPC for the season on October 31st receive 8.1% (15/186) of their 2020/21 salary by October 31. 6) Increases the benefits credit for the 2020/21 and 2021/22 seasons and provides values for seasons through 2025/26.
Player Benefit Issues
7-31) Various changes to health insurance, life insurance, retirement plans, senior player gifting, and accounting related to those benefits.
32-37) Changes to how second opinions are handled 38) Clubs cannot enter into commercial agreements that restrict their ability to select medical staff or refer players to third party service providers. 39) Parties will forma a task force to advise on minimum standards for Club medical resources and staffing on road trips 40) Changes to off season rehabilitation. 41-43) Changes to post-career medical treatment. 44) The NHL and Clubs will not oppose legislation, in Canadian provinces, to extend workers compensation benefits to professional athletes. 45) Changes to worker's compensation. 46-49) Changes to the Performance Enhancing Substances Program 50) Parties will negotiate a revised Substance Abuse and Behavioral Health Program
Player Contracting Issues
51) ELC compensation limits are:
52) Minor league compensation limits (for entry-level players):
53) League-Paid Individual "B" NHL Awards Bonuses (for entry-level players) are amended (starting with the 2020/21 season) to include the Art Ross, Masterton, Messier, and Clancy Awards. These bonuses will not be counted against league-wide player compensation. The amount paid will be increased by 50% starting in the 2022/23 season. 54) Club-Paid Individual "A" and "B" Performance Bonuses are amended to include the Art Ross trophy (starting with the 2020/21 season). Starting with ELCs signed after the 2022 draft, "A" bonus maximums are increased from $850K to $1M, and the maximum per category increases from $212.5K to $250K; "B" bonus (Club-paid) maximums are increased from $2M to $2.5M. 55) NHL Minimum Salary is amended:
56) UFAs who play for a club outside North America do not need to clear waivers before December 15. 57) Revised tryout agreements. 58) No-trade and no-move clauses always travel with the player in the event of the contract moving. 59) Salary arbitration briefs are limited to: 1) 42 pages (exclusive of indices, glossaries, tables of contents, and exhibits), and 2) size 12-point Times New Roman font, double-spaced, one-inch margins (except charts, tables, headings, footnotes, citations). Arbitration may not be settled after the hearing has commenced. 60) The UFA Interview Period shall be eliminated. 61) Starting with the 2020/21 season, a "Projected Off-Season Cap Accounting" rule shall replace the "Tagging Rule". From the beginning of the regular season through June 30, Clubs may not exceed the current Upper Limit plus 10% in AAV relevant for the following season. Any amounts based on rate reflective of a player's time on the roster uses the current projected time. 62) The Performance Bonus Cushion remains in the final year of the CBA 63) Cap Advantage Recapture is charged against a Club by either: 1) equal proportions in each season over the remaining term of the SPC, or 2) in an equal amount to the contract's AAV in as many seasons required to account for the full amount (the last season is the remaining amount). The later formula (2) is applied if the value in the former (1) exceeds the AAV. 64) The 35 or older cap counting rule does not apply to contracts that have: 1) total compensation (salary and bonuses) that is either the same or increases from season-to-season, and 2) a signing bonus that is payable in the first year only. 65) Clubs cannot make trades with conditions based on a player signing with a Club (if the player has a current or future contract at the time of the trade) or based on the subsequent assignment of the traded player. 66) Players signed through the subsequent trade deadline can sign an 8-year contract without waiting until the trade deadline. 67) For "Front-Loaded SPCs" the difference in the player's salary and bonuses cannot change by more than 25% year-to-year, and the salary and bonuses be less than 60% of the highest season. 68) For contracts signed after this agreement, if the minimum qualifying offer would otherwise be greater than 120% of the AAV of the contract, the minimum qualifying offer will instead be 120% of the AAV.
Working Conditions Issues
69) Changes to how days off are accounted. 70) Changes to bye week accounting. 71) All-Star Game Weekend events will be created by the NHL in consultation with the NHLPA. There will be no All-Star Game in a season in which the NHL and NHLPA agree to participate in an international tournament. 72) Parties will discuss minimizing travel by scheduling back-to-back road games in the same city 73-82) Changes in travel, moving costs and compensation. 83-84) Changes/restrictions to fitness testing and compulsory off-season training. 85-86) Clubs will make two complimentary game-worn jerseys available to each player, provided they are for personal or charitable use rather than commercial. NHLPA will agree to restrictions on player's use of Club-provided game-used equipment. 87) Clubs will give the NHLPA electronic player payroll records. 88) The Playoff fund will be as follows:
89) The NHL and NHLPA will participate in the 2022 and 2026 Winter Olympics, subject to negotiation of acceptable terms to each of the NHL, NHLPA, and IIHF (and/or IOC). 90) Changes to the maintenance of the Industry Growth Fund. 91) The NHL has a one-time option to modify revenue sharing on or before June 30, 2021. In the CBA, Recipient Clubs receive either a full or half share of the revenue sharing based on if their "Designated Market Area" has fewer or more than 3 million households (defined by Nielsen in the USA and BBM in Canada). This allows the NHL to change it so all Recipient Clubs receive a full share. 92) NHL will discuss providing footage and still images of NHL players to the NHLPA free-of-charge for non-commercial, editorial, and internal uses. 93) Parties will negotiate a 2020/21 calendar and schedule. Most statistics are pro-rated with a 70/82 factor for "Roster Freeze Players", but not for other players. 94) Tentative Critical Dates Calendar:
2020/21 season begins (for contract signing purposes)
Training camps open
Travel to Hub Cities
Stanley Cup Qualifiers Begin
First Round Begins
Second Round Begins
Conference Finals Begin
Stanley Cup Finals Begin
Later of September 26 or Beginning of SCF
First Buy-Out Period Begins
Last Possible Day of Final
Later of October 4 and 2 days following the last game in the final Playoff round the team plays
Deadline for First Club-Elected Arbitration Notification (5pm ET)
2020 NHL Draft
Later of October 6 and 4 days following the last game in the final Playoff round the team plays
Deadline for Qualifying Offers (5pm ET), which are not open for acceptance prior to the “Qualifying Offers Open for Acceptance (12pm ET)” date"
Later of October 8 or SCF + 6 days
First Buy-Out Period Ends
Later of October 9 or SCF + 7 days
Qualifying Offers Open for Acceptance (12pm ET); RFA/UFA Signing Period Begins (12pm ET)
Later of October 10 and 8 days following the last game in the final Playoff round the team plays
Deadline for Player-Elected Salary Arbitration Notification (5pm ET); Deadline for RFA Offer Sheets for Players for whom Clubs have elected Salary Arbitration pursuant to First Club-Elected Salary Arbitration (5pm ET); Commencement of Second Club-Elected Salary Arbitration Notification (5:01pm ET)
Later of October 11 and 8 days following the last game in the final Playoff round the team plays
Deadline for Second Club-Elected Salary Arbitration Notification (5pm ET)
Scheduling of Salary Arbitration Hearings
Later of October 18 or SCF + 16 days
Qualifying Offers Expire Automatically (5pm ET)
First Day of Salary Arbitration Hearings
Last Day of Salary Arbitration Hearings
Training Camps Open
2020/21 Regular Season Begins
95-97) Phases 2-4 Protocols (not included in the document) 98) Disputes regarding Leafs broadcasting rights agreement and Pittsburgh non-resident sports facility usage fee have been settled.
The multifaceted causes of the Bengal famine and the resulting media disinformation
Churchill is a famous man, one of the most famous in fact, and as such more than almost any other figure in recent history gets more films and books written about him than seldom few others. He is also an icon for many, myself included, and in my and millions of others opinions the greatest Briton. However this fame means for low effort blogspammers and lazy journalists he is a very attractive target because any article regardless of how poorly researched provided it takes a negative stance against him will inevitably be well received and trend making the insignificant time spent writing and ‘researching’ it worthwhile. The formula is simple;
Wait for a new big Churchill film/event
‘Discover’ how he was evil with a “Top Ten Hitler Moments”
Write a short article leaving out the nuances of said action
Undoubtedly this post will suffer somewhat from my personal biases however unlike those articles which use blind disdain to be written I fully encourage any and all corrections or criticism. I will make amends as necessary and I encourage anyone reading and supporting this post to offer the same support to any opposing retort provided the retort is well researched. EPILOGUE: Poison Gas or Poisoned Narrative The blind hatred and lies are the most evident on reddit and wider circles than with Churchill’s quote. “I cannot understand this squeamishness about the use of gas, I am strongly in favour of using poisoned gas against uncivilised tribes" Here are just a few examples on Reddit and elsewhere of people using the quote to judge him, even going as far as to compare him to Hitler. https://np.reddit.com/startrek/comments/bwn635/past_tense_is_almost_disturbing_to_watch_now_ds9/eq0h2kl/
"I cannot understand this squeamishness about the use of gas," he wrote in a memo during his role as minister for war and air in 1919. "I am strongly in favour of using poisoned gas against uncivilised tribes," he continued.
As bad as Hitler is a bit much, but Churchill was a really really shitty person.
his well-documented bigotry, articulated often with shocking callousness and contempt. "I hate Indians," he once trumpeted. "They are a beastly people with a beastly religion." He referred to Palestinians as "barbaric hordes who ate little but camel dung." When quashing insurgents in Sudan in the earlier days of his imperial career, Churchill boasted of killing three "savages." Contemplating restive populations in northwest Asia, he infamously lamented the "squeamishness" of his colleagues, who were not in "favor of using poisoned gas against uncivilized tribes."
"I am strongly in favour of using poisonous gas against uncivilised tribes" -Winston Churchill " I do not admit that a wrong has been done to these people by the fact that a stronger race, a higher-grade race, a more worldly wise race to put it that way, has come in and taken their place." - Winston Churchill "People who use quotes to prove points are stupid" -Winston Churchill (Probably)
But when they defied this script, Churchill demanded they be crushed with extreme force. As Colonial Secretary in the 1920s, he unleashed the notorious Black and Tan thugs on Ireland’s Catholic civilians, and when the Kurds rebelled against British rule, he said: “I am strongly in favour of using poisoned gas against uncivilised tribes...[It] would spread a lively terror.”
"I am strongly in favour of using poisoned gas against uncivilised tribes," he declared in one secret memorandum. He criticised his colleagues for their "squeamishness", declaring that "the objections of the India Office to the use of gas against natives are unreasonable. Gas is a more merciful weapon than [the] high explosive shell, and compels an enemy to accept a decision with less loss of life than any other agency of war."
He was in favour of genocide and seemed a little bit racist
His views on other ethnic groups were clear to many and made obvious throughout his career. During his time in the War Ministry in 1919 he said he was "strongly in favour of using poisoned gas against uncivilised tribes". He said Palestinians were "barbaric hordes who ate little but camel dung". He referred to the people of the Sudan as "savages", and spent his time in parliament calling for an increased push to colonise more of the world because "the Aryan stock is bound to triumph."
So what’s the issue? I have the guardian, telegraph, AND huffington post all using this quote so it must be real? So all those reddit comment are fair right? Churchill has never said that. This is the quote. This is what he actually said; “It is sheer affectation to lacerate a man[make him cry] with the poisonous fragment of a bursting shell and to boggle at making his eyes water by means of lachrymatory gas[tear gas]. I am strongly in favour of using poisoned gas against uncivilised tribes. The moral effect should be so good that the loss of life should be reduced to a minimum. It is not necessary to use only the most deadly gasses: gasses can be used which cause great inconvenience and would spread a lively terror and yet would leave no serious permanent effects on most of those affected.”-Winston Churchill 1919 Source: http://bookstore.hillsdale.edu/merchdetail?MerchID=370315&num=0&start=&end=&type=1&CategoryName=Churchill%20Books&CatID=15446&Name=Churchill%20Books The advancement of modern weapons with tanks, machine guns, bombs had meant that a tremendous amount of death could be brought upon a military power or civilian population with ease something we know all too well from WW2 which saw tens of millions dead both civlian and military with little regard for either. Simply put Churchill didn’t want our perspective of ‘poisoned gas’ to be coloured from the experiences of World War 1 to such an extent we might ignore it’s possible use to minimise the loss of life something he was clear to point out shortly there after. “Gas is a more merciful weapon than high explosive shell, and compels an enemy to accept a decision with less loss of life than any other agency of war. The moral effect is also very great. There can be no conceivable reason why it should not be resorted to. We have definitely taken the position of maintaining gas as a weapon in future warfare, and it is only ignorance on the part of the Indian military authorities which interposes any obstacle.”-Winston Churchill The remaining controversy with that statement is the use of ‘uncivilised tribes’ which many attribute racist notions but the truth is this comes from British military law; “The British Manual of Military Law stated that the rules of war applied only to conflict "between civilized nations." Already in the Manual of 1914, it was clearly stated that "they do not apply in wars with uncivilized States and tribes"; instead the British commander should observe "the rules of justice and humanity" according to his own individual discretion”-HMSO, 1914, p. 235 Basically, and this is my personal perspective that you might find logical, is that Churchill being a former soldier understood the fog of war and its impact on a decision like this. I’m going to skip forward a little to 1939-1945 to explain fog of war to those unfamiliar or unaware of its consequence during battles on all sides there’d be misreporting of information up the chain of command. American tankers famously reporting Tiger tanks when there were none in the area confusing it with the much less lethal and dangerous Panzer 3/4 tanks and the Russians during the final weeks of the war falsely reported Germans as having used gas when they did not. If gas including non-lethal gases, became common between warring nations the fog of war would result in escalation not out of ill intent or desire to use lethal methods but because a soldier under gas attack seeing the man next to him die from no visible cause might falsely report lethal gas which would prompt a retaliation thus within days tear gas would turn to more lethal methods. As an aside fearing German use American and Britain both prepared using lethal gas as an escalation as did Germany in 1943 during an air raid an American ship carrying mustard gas exploded and claimed the lives of hundreds if not thousands. Before the nuclear bomb there was chemical warfare and risk of escalation meant that the use of non lethal gasses should be prohibited. The same is not true for ‘uncivilised states/tribes’ which lack the ability to respond and escalate and as such make the use of non-lethal weapons viable and even preferable over machine guns, artillery and bombs. In modern days we might consider the equivalent to being proto-states or smaller. That’s Churchill’s perspective in my opinion he understood the humane benefits to tear gas and its potential use to minimise the loss of life and achieve victory against protostates or rebellions while also understand the risk of it when used against militarily industrialised countries who has the ability to respond which in turn would escalate the use and lethality of gases as a result of the fog of war. So I leave this section with a question Do you believe the quote that is often used fairly and accurately represent the actual quote and the removal of information is justified? If you feel that the shortened quote is unfair that leaves one of two possibilities The articles and people lacked sufficient knowledge and as such the information they present elsewhere is also problematic. They deliberately misrepresented Churchill’s quote as it undermined their point as a result of personal bias and as such their perspective should be disregarded entirely. The point of this epilogue was to as quickly and simply as possible address a key issue I have, and I believe surrounds Churchill, the people falsifying information to paint a narrative which when evaluated in full is a far more complex situation than presented. This brings me onto the Bengal famine the most controversial point of Churchill’s past and one far more complicated with far more misinformation and an order more magnitude information to discuss hence the short epilogue about a far more simple and clear of misinformation. Part 1: World War 2 in brief. The Bengal famine of 1943 simply cannot be separated from World War 2, doing so would be fundamentally irrational even if the famine itself wasn’t deliberate like that of Leningrad the effects of World War 2 cannot be ignored and as such this chapter seeks to discuss briefly the World War 2 from both a strategic military perspective and a civilian one. Our understanding of war, and mine personally as well, stems much from movies which in order to be exciting focus on individual soldiers, or groups, as their struggle through a battle we know of Ryan, of Vasily, and of Desmond what we are rarely shown or can even imagine is the scale of war, especially on the material front with numbers so large they become incomprehensible I could list the number of tanks, planes, and other such figures but I think these few tidbits serve well enough; Rationing in Britain didn’t end until 1954 9 years after the end of WW2. The number of aircraft destroyed during WW2 is greater than the number of aircraft that currently exist in the entire world today. America produced 139 cars during WW2 down from 3 million per year so that it could make planes and tanks… it made a plane 5 minutes. America was building so many ships it accidentally made too many and turned them into ice-cream boats The scale of the conflict goes beyond reason it was immense beyond comprehension there was in just about every aspect of human life a war factor. Gates and rails where taken from London for the war effort, anything and everything with value was used or reused it. All major nations paused for 6(4) years and concentrated on war unless it actively contributed to the war it was ignored. The Reichstag wasn’t rebuilt until 1964. They rediscovered a submarine base with submarines inside in the 90’s. You must remember the scale of things when discussing this war because that scale plays a huge factor in the Bengal famine and while not directly tied to any given famine it is the indirect cause of many we see during this era. People like to think that the war was won at 4pm in the small village of Sovetsky on the 23rd of November 1942 i.e the successful encirclement of the German 6th army and other units consisting of a total of around 265,000 soldiers however while it is undoubtedly true Germany lost that day it wasn’t until Kursk and Smolensk(23rd August 1943 and 2nd October 1943) that the allies had won because those marked the end of German momentum for good. There was to be no summer offensive and there’d be no chance for Germany to regain initiative with their successive offensives limited to tactical victories and their best hope from then to the remainder of the war being defensive losing territory, equipment and manpower none of which it could afford. An advancing army can pick up guns, repair damaged or destroyed tanks of both their own and the enemies and put them into service where as the losing side lost them for good. This was so true that during elongated battles the damage report listed more damaged vehicles than the enemy had in the area simply because they could repair the vehicles and replace the crew. While the war may have been won in late 1943 Germany still held much of Europe, D-DAY was a year away, Japan was still on the offensive in China. It was another 1 and a half years of hard fighting still to go. Part 2: Famines of World War 2 One of the aspects and consequences of this war was the forgotten suffering in the form of famines of which Bengal wasn’t the only one of World War 2 far from it, below is a list of famines of that period.
Did WW2 play a factor
Rwanda and Burundi
I didn’t count the Final Solution nor the Siege of Leningrad because they where deliberate attempts to starve and kill the civilian population rather than incidental side effects of the war, there were 15 famines during the period of the war (extended slightly due to the German and Soviet Union famines) of which four can be excluded due to not being as an indirect result of a war or insufficient information to suggest that meaning 11 war related famines. Yet you never heard of the 10 other famines, there’s no articles written on them or blogspam posts making its way to /todayilearned because those famines can’t be blamed on a great man so they are of little to no interest to the people and there’s no way to write clickbait on them. If an article was titled “Germany’s war effort resulted in a shortage of food and famine in 1947” I doubt you’d read it let alone share it. As such these famines which claimed the lives of millions are forgotten their deaths cannot be used by politicians to incite new hatred, their cause cannot be debated and clickbait cannot be made. What we can see although it isn’t concrete is the delayed effect of the war in a result famine with famines as a result of the war occurring 2 years after the end. This delaying effect is partially due to there being available manpower for agriculture at the start of the war and insufficient production to arm men meaning many men in 1939, 40, 41 could still work as the demand for manpower increased in Soviet Union and Germany they widened their criteria meaning essential men for factories, agriculture, and transport were sent to fight leading to deficit of crops and as destruction increased with no ability to rebuild the mounting debt of death eventually needed to be paid. No better can we see this delay in war than by examining the German production
Type of Weapon
Rifles (K98k, K41, K43, G 33/40)
170,880 (incl SMG)
324,800 (incl SMG)
Sub-machine guns MP 38, 40, 44
1 Due to the end of the war figures given for 1945 are just for the first 2 or 3 months As you can see 1944, in spite of intense allied bombing, was Germany's best year for production and had it not been for the sudden collapse in 1945 Speer’s plans for 1945 would have seen even more produced and this was a losing nation by this point. This is delayed onset for production during WW2 irrespective of nation due to demand and optimisation contrary to belief production rates only increase with time during war even with victory or loss imminent people would still work and work better than ever with quite literally people in the Mauser factory producing guns as the Americans were right outside. This is what causes the delayed onset as more and more resources and manpower gets sent away from civilian needs eventually the needs of the people in food, fuel, steel and raw materials aren’t met and famine sets in even years after victory. In summary the Bengal famine of 1943 was not an isolated case and was among many the world round as a result of the war. Any author which fails to mention or discuss this even briefly is simply not doing their due diligence to the topic at hand. Part 3: Pre-War Bengal Before we can finally discuss the famine itself we must understand the Bengal prior to the famine much like how we can’t separate the German famine of 46/47 (The ‘hungerwinter’) from Germany 1944/45 we can’t separate the Bengal famine of 1943 from it’s pre-war conditions. Bengals population grew enormously since the turn of the century with West Bengal going from a population of 16,940,088 in 1901 to 23,229,552 in 1941 an increase of 37% of which it saw a 23% increase in the most recent decade (31-41) drastically increasing food demand and turning the region of Bengal from a net food exporter to a net food importer. It had a population of around 60 million which was around the same as France, Belgium, Holland, and Denmark combined or in modern terms around the same population as California and Florida… combined. All these people lived in an area of roughly 77,000 mi2 roughly that of Nebraska. We imagine British India as a country like say France or Germany the truth of it is far different British India was approximately 1.7 million square miles, which is the size of the EU. The distances between ports could be equal to the distance from London to Leningrad(St Petersburg) in both longitudinal and latitudinal directions. India is large now and even larger during this period. Due to the separation of Bengal into West Bengal and Pakistan in 1947 data record are slightly hazy but this figure is inline with India in general (33% turn of century increase, 14% decade). While the deficit between agricultural supply and demand was not insurmountable with no famines since the turn of the century it certainly wasn’t a desirable position especially if one lost it’s trade partners. It’s ability to compensate for population growth with agricultural expansion was limited by the lack of availability of land and a stagnant (and even declining) yield per acre yield as a result of damage to the soil and population growth meaning worse land is farmed. For the sake of completion here is the official reports population growth
According to the census figures, the population of the province[Bengal] increased from 42.1 million in 1901 to 60.3 million in 1941[43%]. While the population of India increased by 37 per cent between the years 1901 and 1941, that of Bengal increased by 43%.
A complex system of land ownership exacerbated the situation similar to that of the Irish potato famine resulted in many farmers having little to no land to grow crops here’s a short video with a basic overview of a similar situation https://youtu.be/gAnT21xGdSk?t=366 Victorian era industrialisation in the form of railway construction left its mark having negatively impacted the vital waterways of the region. All these factors meant that Bengal by 1930 is reported to have the least nutritious diets on planet earth surviving on a diet barely above starvation. Which is well summarised as; “Bengal’s rice output in normal years was barely enough for barebones subsistence. An output of 9 million tons translates into 1 lb per day or less than 2,000 kcals per adult male equivalent. Even allowing for imports from neighbouring provinces and Burma, the province’s margin over subsistence on the eve of the famine was slender.” Their rice yield per acre was stagnant since the start of the 20th century despite a growing population however the turning point was not until 1936. As a quick aside Bengal has 3 crops, Boro(April and May), Aus(July and August) and Aman(November and December). The Aman crop is the most important for the region contributing the majority of supply for the region for the following year. “Current supply (1938 to 1942).- On the average of the 5 years 1938 to 1942, the yield of the Aman crop was sufficient for about 38 weeks, as against 42 weeks in the previous decade. The yield of the boro and aus crops was sufficient for about 10 wrecks as against 12 weeks in the previous decade. The supply derived from external sources, namely the balance of imports over exports, provided over one week’s supply, as against nil in the previous decade. Thus, the current supply was, on average, sufficient for only 49 weeks in the year as against 54 in the former period.” If we look at the yearly surplus from 1929 to 1941 including carry over and under the assumption that there was no carry over from 1928 due to insufficient data
Bengal had lost its buffer in part due to population growth and less favourable seasonal conditions over the past half decade and as such lost any time to respond to a crisis, let alone a severe one. Just to be clear agriculture was the responsibility of the Indian governments as part of a diarchy and had been since 1919. For the sake of transparency this control of agriculture may have been rescinded and if anyone has evidence of that I will make the necessary corrections. Simply put Bengal was teetering on the edge of famine for decades unfortunately for Bengal the war came before the social, agricultural, and industrial evolution that it needed. Part 4: Japan attacks the Western Powers Often forgotten and sometimes misrepresented was the fateful day of December 7th 1941 which saw Japan attack the United States, United Kingdom, and Netherlands prior to a formal declaration. Following Japanese attacks on three British overseas territories (Singapore, Malaya, Hong Kong) Britain declared war on Japan 9 hours before the attack on Pearl Harbour as a result of the forgotten attacks on these territories some people mistakenly think that Britain declared war on Japan to get America to join in Europe which requires overlooking that America didn’t declare war on Italy or Germany who declared war on America on December 11th who responded later that day with it’s declaration. Britain and America suffered in the early stages of the war with Britain suffering from it’s continued battle against Germany which it devoted much of it’s attention even though by this point the battle of Britain was won. The possibility of invasion was also gone as Germany's ambitions lay East to the Soviet Union This diversion was a relief as it meant a division of focus however due to the early monumental successes of Barbarossa it was also an alarming time for those in government. A Soviet collapse and German victory could give Germany a significant production advantage and a surplus of oil it so desperately needed. While America having being knocked down but not out at Pearl would not see Naval dominance until Midway 7 June 1942 until then Japan saw nothing but success in the non-Chinese front and plenty of success in China as well. Following the defeat at Midway Japan's ability to expand and commit itself to a large invasion of Australia was out of the question so both sides entered a period of stalemate. Japan lacked the ability to attack instead took a very defensive stance in the Pacific Ocean while shifting it’s offensive focus to China which it successfully maintained until 1945. Meanwhile America and Britain focused much of their attention to Europe as part of ‘Europe first’ policy which was affirmed in 1941. Japan simply lacked any possibility to threaten America or Britain while knocking Japan out of the war would be an immense undertaking meanwhile German presented a very active threat being both technologically superior and with greater access to industry in the event of a Germany victory over the Soviet Union (whatever nature that victory was) it would represent a direct threat to Britain and eventually a direct threat to America. As such until their position in Europe was solidified (Kursk, North Africa, Italian invasion) and the battle of the atlantic won Japan would be secondary. This is why in terms of territorial changes in the pacific theatre (excluding China) much of 42/43 was relatively quiet. Asia was an afterthought as unemotional as that notion of millions of Chinese, Islanders, Indians suffering being a secondary it was a necessity. Germany was the undisputed threat ando not focusing on them would have been foolish and illogical. Part 5: The Fall of Burma The importance of Burma was not unknown to the allies specifically Britain and Nationalist China which would rely on the Burma road for vital supplies however with threats in China from the East and the North African campaign taking priority for the British and would do so until 13 May 1943 which saw allied victory (The Second Battle of El-Alamein 11 November 1942 would however mark the beginning of the end for Axis power in Africa) which was still a year or more away. Japan recognised the importance of region with it’s natural resources of oil, cobalt, and excess rice it would help be a vital and productive buffer zone from the more important pacific theater. It launched on January 22nd 1942 it’s main attack for Burma, although smaller probing attacks and air attacks preceded this, and outside limited examples met with near total success owing to superior equipment and training this disorganised retreat was hampered by the emerging refugee problem caused by deliberate attempts by Japan to target civilian population centers much like Germany did during their invasion of Poland. As a result of the Japanese attacks 100,000’s of troops were forced back into Bengal the gateway to India as where 500,000 refugees which as a result of close intermingling, problematic water and food supplies as well as close proximity of the refugee made it a hotbed of disease. Roughly 50,000 died along the way and by the time they reached British India some 80% where sick with dysentery, smallpox, malaria or cholera some 30% desperately so these refugees many having gone without food for days filled the large towns and cities of Bengal. Japanese occupation of the region would not be questioned until November 1944 and not completely until July 1945 for the 3 years of occupation vital rice could not be exported from the rice rich region of Burma to Bengal. Following the defeat of British, Indian, and Chinese troops in Burma an urgent need to defend the core of India presented itself and there is no better region to do so than Bengal, the gateway of India, as an incredible strategic defensive position. This is due to the large rivers and narrow passages with the ocean on one side and mountains on the other this narrowing would allow any defending army to concentrate it’s forces and yielding a significant advantage to those defending even if outnumbered. As such Britain needed to station a large number of soldiers in the area to protect India from Japan. In the past it has been suggested that it was wrong for Britain and India to protect itself and the allies should have left Japan waltz through India and Iran unopposed afterall Japans horrific treatment was limited to the Chinese right? Firstly it wasn’t, Japans brutality was experienced everywhere in Asia from Malaya to Signpore and even Burma with incidents like the Kalagong massacre which saw the mass rape and murder of 1,000 villagers.
The inhabitants were taken in groups of five to ten people to nearby wells, blindfolded, and bayoneted, and their bodies were dumped in the wells
So no Japan wouldn’t have been some humanitarian liberators they would have looted, raped, and murdered their way through India plundering the rice from Bengal to further their conquest. Then you factor in the strategic importance of the India continent if Japan got ahold of it their position would be strengthened and the allies weakened with easy Japanese raiding from the southernmost tip on vital allied shipping with Japan potentially being able to threaten precious and vital oil in Iran. Simply put the option to surrender India to some peaceful Japanese occupation is revisionist fantasy that overlooks Japanese armies disregard for the notion of human rights, let alone the strategic problems for the greater war effort such a surrender would represent Part 5b: Defence of India With Bengal being required for both the war in general and the protection of India specifically a military build up in the region was required and in order to support said build up a larger force of military labourers was required not to mention military related jobs and non combat roles mean that for every front line soldier many more people are required to support them in the factories for guns, fields for food, and yards for construction. This enormous buildup thus required an even greater number of low skill workers which fortunately there was an abundance of and with the relatively high wages paid to them to construct new airfields many Bengal farmers flocked to these jobs which promised better pay in a major city this military industrialization occurred at a rate far quicker than the preceding industrialisation of the past 4 decades in the region and upset the balance between industry and agriculture. The vast majority of Indias and allied industrial output was devoted to the war, earlier I mention how America produced practically no civilian cars during WW2 and that was America, everything India made was purchased or devoted to the army which paid fairly for the goods and wasn’t a looting or slave labour situation however the remaining industrial capacity was sold largely unregulated on the civilian market which had a disastrous impact. Say your a shirt factory in India making 10,000 shirts a week the war starts and the army wants 9,000 a week from you. Fine. So you have 1,000 civilian shirts where previous demand was 10,000 shirts meaning you can and will increase the price and as a whole they did. It was the lack of government control, not government control which led to the problem of profiteering. If we think back to those low skill Bengal farmers who are being paid by large government military expenditure they are getting paid more than they were in the farms to encourage their sector change (agriculture to industrial) increasing their purchasing power allowing for the price increase of civilian goods and foods as both became restricted the former through diversion to the military and the latter by the loss of workforce the result of which is the poorer agricultural workforce who unlike the city workers and landowners where priced out of the market quicker than i. Here’s how the prices of goods changed from pre-war to 1943.
This issue is more clearly seen when looking at the wholesale price of coarse rice in Calcutta from April 1931 to January 1943 https://i.imgur.com/i3e1vNF.png The price experienced over a 4 fold increase compared to prewar price however prior to the Japanese declaration the price was not wholly out of control this catastrophic explosion of the price partly due to aforementioned occupation of Burma, refugees, military industrialisation of India, and to an as of yet undiscussed topic of panic buying and hoarding. Part 6a: Scorched Earth Fearing Japanese invasion the government set about a policy to deny the enemy vital supplies. Japan's military, especially those in the furthest reaches in Burma, Malaya and deep China lacked sufficient supply and ability to be supplied with food from Japan as such they where reliant on plundering or purchasing of local food not dissimilar from Germany and Russia (41/42 and 44/45 respectively) as such provided you can sufficiently deny them vital supplies such as food and transportation their ability to advance is hampered significantly. In the western theater of war this tactic was used by both the Soviet Union with the scorched earth policy and Hitlers Nero Decree however despite being similar in concept the execution differed significantly between British and Soviet/German implementation. This can be established between looking at the Nero Decree which thankfully was never fully carried out and the reality of the denial policy. “All military transport and communication facilities, industrial establishments and supply depots, as well as anything else of value within Reich territory, which could in any way be used by the enemy immediately or within the foreseeable future for the prosecution of the war, will be destroyed” It was much like the Soviet policy a complete destruction of the regions civilisation in order to hamper an advance in contrast the denial policy was significantly more tame and measured seeking only to restrict excess rice and remove means of transportation requiring any enemy planning an invasion or advance would require significantly more preparation as a result of increased operational demands. While the threat loomed of Japanese invasion, unlike the Soviet Union and Germany it was currently underway affording the government more time as such rather than the destruction of goods lacking the time for relocation a measured approach can be taken whereby local official where permitted to buy excess rice to local demand and move it west in a safer region. An over emphasis is put on this policy which was a contributing factor was not the sole factor or in my opinion the main factor however ‘Denial policy’ or ‘destruction of rice’ in a short sentence or comment is a very easy target for the problems. However the factual reality is significantly different from the short sentence simplification. The denial policy only saw some 40,000 tonnes of rice/paddy removed a drop in the ocean compared to the shortfall. This small quantity is due to two factors, one being the limited surplus available for which local officials where permitted to purchase the second being the price ceiling local officials could purchase rice quickly found itself below the actual price of rice effectively putting a stop to the practice as a farmer could make more money selling his or her goods to the market rather than as part of a denial policy. However the timing of the denial policy is strongly tied to other factors which brought about it’s introduction namely the Japanese invasion of Burma. However I will not deny the potential it contributed to some small degree a price increase due to local officials initially offering 10% above market value for rice (prior to the market price and subsequent price ceiling) and the potential said policy might have for alarming citizens who would undoubtedly attach said policy to a more imminent specific threat to their region. I feel it is worth adding strongly the following ”There is no evidence to show that the purchases led anywhere to physical scarcity.”
Abiomed is a mid cap medical technology company that supplies circulatory support devices. "We are a leading provider of temporary percutaneous mechanical circulatory support devices and we offer a continuum of care to heart failure patients. We develop, manufacture and market proprietary products that are designed to enable the heart to rest, heal and recover by improving blood flow to the coronary arteries and end-organs and/or temporarily performing the pumping function of the heart. Our products are used in the cath lab by interventional cardiologists, the electrophysiology lab, the hybrid lab and in the heart surgery suite by heart surgeons. A physician may use our devices for patients who are in need of hemodynamic support before, during or after angioplasty or heart surgery procedures. We believe heart recovery is the optimal clinical outcome for patients experiencing heart failure because it enables patients to go home with their own native heart and restores their quality of life. In addition, we believe that for the care of such patients, heart recovery is the most cost-effective solution for the healthcare system." - ABMD annual report. According to the AHA, Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics 2014 Update Report, coronary heart disease, or CHD, causes approximately one of every seven deaths in the United States. Coronary heart disease is a condition of the coronary arteries that causes reduced blood flow and insufficient oxygen delivery to the affected portion of the heart. Coronary heart disease leads to AMI, commonly known as a heart attack, which may lead to heart failure, a condition in which the heart is unable to pump enough blood to the body’s major organs. In 2011, CHD mortality was 375,295. Each year, an estimated 635,000 Americans have a new coronary attack (defined as first hospitalized myocardial infarction or coronary heart disease death) and approximately 300,000 have a recurrent attack. It is estimated that an additional 155,000 “silent” first myocardial infarctions occur each year ABMD's revenue (TTM) has risen for more than five consecutive quarters. One year ago the firm reported $210 million in revenue. For the most recent year it reported $303 million (a 44.0% one-year rise). Two-years ago the firm reported annual revenue of $177 million (up 71.4%). The company has steadily been increasing revenue every year since 2004, from under $50 million to over $300 million today. The company became profitable in 2012 and net income has surged from $18 million in the 4th quarter of 2014 to $126 million in the 4th quarter of 2015. Net Income (after tax profit) over the trailing twelve months (TTM) for ABMD is rising. For the most recent trailing-twelve-months (TTM) the company reported net income of $126 (million). That's an increase in the most recent year from $18 (million) or a 583.57% change. Most of the revenue generated comes from its Impella line of products which the company plans to continue focusing on in the future. The Impella product portfolio, which includes the Impella 2.5, Impella CP, Impella RP, Impella LD and Impella 5.0, has supported over 25,000 patients in the U.S. In July of 2014 they purchased ECP for $13 million. ECP, based in Berlin, Germany, is engaged in research, development, prototyping and the pre-serial production of a percutaneous expandable catheter pump which increases blood circulation from the heart with an external drive shaft. Fiscal third quarter 2016 worldwide Impella® heart pump revenue totaled $81.0 million, an increase of 41% compared to revenue of $57.4 million during the same period of the prior fiscal year. U.S. Impella heart pump revenue grew 45% to $75.0 million from $51.9 million in the prior fiscal year with U.S. patient usage of the Impella heart pumps up 45% The company has steadily increased operating margins since 2002 but is down from a year ago. 1.27 compared to 1.30. Gross margins have consistently remained around 80% over the past few years. Revenue per employee is below peer group average at $391,000 compared to WCG with a revenue per employee of 2 million. Capital Expenditures (TTM US$ Millions) in the most recent quarter for ABMD was $11 million. CapEx is rising (304.49%) from last year's value of $3 million. Further, we can see that CapEx today relative to two-years ago is increasing (255.27%) from last year's value of $3 million. Net cash balances were $60 million in 2011 to today at $146 million. "Impella product revenues for fiscal 2015 increased by $45.7 million, or 27%, to $212.7 million from $167.0 million for fiscal 2014. Most of our increase in Impella revenue was from disposable catheter sales in the U.S., as we focus on increasing utilization of our disposable catheter products through continued investment in our field organization and physician training programs. Impella product revenues outside the US increased by $6.2 million, or 41%, during fiscal 2015. Most of this increase was due to Impella product sales in Europe, primarily Germany, as we continue to expand our commercial infrastructure there. We expect Impella revenues to continue to increase with our recent PMA approval in the U.S. and as we add new customer sites, increase utilization at existing customer sites, continue our commercial launch of Impella CP, begin our introduction of Impella RP to the market and expand our efforts in Europe." - ABMD annual report Since 2002 the company has steadily increased gross margins from 60% to over 80%. Meanwhile they have been able to lower their SGA margins from a 80% high in 2008 to todays margin of below 50%. The company has steadily increased revenue per employee is 2002 from below $100 thousand to over $300 thousand today. The company continues to spend on research and development along with increasing earnings. ABMD holds no debt and generated $20.7 million in cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities, totaling $196.2 million as of December 31, 2015, compared to $175.5 million at September 30, 2015. This is a company that has grown into a very financially sound medical company. Here are some potential problems: "On October 26, 2012, we were informed that the Department of Justice, United States Attorney’s Office for the District of Columbia was conducting an investigation, or the “Marketing and Labeling Investigation” focused on our marketing and labeling of the Impella 2.5. On October 31, 2012, we accepted service of a subpoena related to this investigation seeking documents related to the Impella 2.5. We believe that we have substantially complied with the subpoena and have submitted the requested documents to the United States Attorney’s Office. On September 13, 2013, we entered into a tolling agreement with the United States Attorney’s Office, pursuant to which we and the United States Attorney’s Office mutually agreed to toll the applicable statutes of limitations for all criminal, civil and administrative offenses and violations that could be charged or claimed against us as of that date. On May 27, 2014 and January 30, 2015, we executed extensions of the tolling agreement. These extensions expired on March 2, 2015. The investigation is ongoing and we are unable to predict the ultimate outcome or determine whether a liability has been incurred or make an estimate of the reasonably possible liability, if any, that could result from any unfavorable outcome associated with this investigation. We have incurred significant expenses related to this investigation and we could continue to incur additional expenses in the future related to this action. On April 25, 2014, we received a subpoena from the Boston regional office of the United States Department of Health and Human Services, or HHS, Office of Inspector General requesting materials relevant to our reimbursement of expenses and remuneration to healthcare providers for a six month period from July 2012 through December 2012 in connection with a civil investigation under the False Claims Act (the “FCA Investigation” and, together with the Marketing and Labeling Investigation, the “DOJ Investigations”). We submitted the requested documents to HHS and believe that we have substantially complied with the subpoena. On November 6, 2014, we received notice from the Department of Justice, United States Attorney’s Office for the District of Massachusetts in the form of a Civil Investigative Demand (“CID”) requesting additional materials relating to this matter for the time period of January 1, 2012 through December 31, 2013. We are currently in the process of responding to the additional requests for information contained in the CID and intend to continue to cooperate with the U.S. Attorney’s Office in connection with the FCA investigation." - Annual report. "The Company is increasing its fiscal year 2016 guidance for total revenue to be approximately $326 million, indicating a growth rate greater than 41% over the prior year. Previous guidance was in the range of $305 million to $315 million, which had indicated an increase of 32% to 37% from the prior year. This guidance projects revenue to be approximately $90 million for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2016. The Company is increasing its fiscal year 2016 guidance for GAAP operating margin to greater than 17%, updated from the previous guidance range of 15% to 17%. " - ABMD annual report Another thing to note is that the company's net income of $117 million up from $7 million in 2014 is primarily from an income tax benefit of $84.9 million http://www.insidermonkey.com/insider-trading/company/abiomed%20inc/815094/ From a technical perspective the company looks great. ABMD is up +0.3% over the last three months and up +4.6% over the last six months. The stock price is up +32.4% over the last year. In 2014 the stock traded in the $24 range and has since exploded over $100. Today the price currently sits at $93.11 which is above both the 200 and 50 day moving averages and has seemed to break through a consolidation the stock experienced during the summer volatility. I believe the stock is set to test all time highs of $110.68 again.
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