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Anti bioterror play for huge long term gains

Thesis: SIGA Technologies, an anti-bioterror pharmaceutical company, will double their stock price in a year and triple or quadruple it in two years. They are in an incredibly strong financial position: zero debt, future US government purchases that may be greater than their market cap, and low expenses for operations and forward research. They also have amazing future growth prospects as foreign governments will buy their meds to prepare for future pandemics. Their drugs treat smallpox which is both more contagious and deadly (IFR ~30%!) than the Wuhan plague.
Do you think absolutely no political or military leader will learn their lesson about pandemic preparedness? Do you think business leaders are going to put the pressure down since the cost of unpreparedness is orders of magnitude greater than preparedness? That’s what this play is all about.
The play: Buy $SIGA stocks and hold for 2 years.

Quick facts

Market cap: $560 million
Style: Value, when compared to other biotechs
Products: Their primary product is an FDA approved oral antiviral (TPOXX) that treats all orthopox viruses (e.g. the dreaded smallpox). They are currently developing additional products for IV and pediatric treatment, another small molecule drug for treating orthopox viruses, and are developing therapeutics that use orthopox viruses for delivery of anticancer antigens.
How SIGA makes money: 1) US government contracts to supply the Strategic National Stockpile, 2) US government contracts for research, 3) sales to foreign governments and potentially private parties. Note that their business doesn't care about prevailing market conditions and all of these are multi-year contracts.
Debt: $0. They paid off an $86 MM loan in March.
Cash holdings: $77.4 MM
Total assets: $118.6 MM
Net cash flow 2019: -$18.2 MM, as discussed below, 2019 was a transition year between govt contracts hence the low income. They made $400MM from closing contracts in 2018.
Net cash flow 2020, my estimate: +$53 MM, see cash flow section below for how I got this figure

How this play can win

- The US govt through BARDA accelerates their purchasing of TPOXX to be and look more prepared for future pandemics.
- Foreign governments purchase TPOXX for their own pandemic preparedness. Canada announced an intent to purchase in December. Others are likely to follow. IMO, the stock will hit $10 when 3 additional countries announce purchasing and $20 when they have a network of 10 purchasing countries plus additional research. The US gets a discount on TPOXX because they funded the initial research, others will likely pay three times as much per dose.
- The US govt offers much more research funding to SIGA to design antivirals for other possible pandemic viruses. 10 years ago they had a small BARDA contract to look into antivirals for Lassa fever, a nasty rat flu boogaloo. They might renew or add to this type of research.
- TPOXX gets additional approvals for IV use and prophylactic use (i.e. give to people in contact with infected, first responders or first city) and US buys more. They recently received a new $23 MM contract for developing this use.
- A larger pharmaceutical company announces that they will purchase SIGA for $10-$15 share in a year. SIGA already has connections with Pfizer.
- Large amounts of additional income help them pump with stock buybacks or fat dividends. I am totally convinced they are going to buyback or spit dividends in a year from now.

Risks

- Foreign governments don’t purchase TPOXX or don’t approve its safety/efficacy and rely on the vaccine for smallpox (but 1 in 5 people can’t take the vax and lots of deaths in first wave without TPOXX).
- US govt does not add to stockpile, only keeps refreshing expired TPOXX.
- US govt does not invest in additional pandemic preparedness research/invests only in competitors.
- TPOXX may later be discovered to have a severe side-effect. (Oral formula is already FDA approved though).
- There’s more risks listed in their 10-K, but I do not think they are significant enough to list here.

Resources for your own DD

Do your own research. Always.
Latest 10-K: https://investor.siga.com/node/13196/html
Latest 10-Q: https://investor.siga.com/node/13251/html
2020 Q1 earnings call: https://www DOT fool DOT com/earnings/call-transcripts/2020/05/07/siga-technologies-inc-siga-q1-2020-earnings-call-t.aspx
2019 Q4 earnings call: https://www DOT seeking NO SPACE alpha DOT com/article/4330138-siga-technologies-inc-siga-ceo-phil-gomez-on-q4-2019-results-earnings-call-transcript
Reddit doesn't like the above websites. Sorry for the garbled links
Press releases: https://investor.siga.com/press-releases
Smallpox wiki: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smallpox

Detailed DD

I’m going to start off this section by answering the arguments you’ve already thought of.
Who gives a shit about some old timey disease?
The world militaries. Smallpox is a nasty disease. It's basic reproduction number, R0, is between 3-6, like the Wuhan coronavirus. It similarly has a 7-14 day lag time before symptoms show, although it is not known to be infectious for the first several days.
Smallpox is also exceptionally deadly, ranging from 15-30% fatality rate depending upon the strain and in children and the elderly can reach a 75% mortality rate. Survivors are usually permanently scarred and may have life-long complications from the disease. A smallpox epidemic would actually make corona look like "just the flu."
Infection around day 20 mark. Bangladesh, 1973.
Bioterrorism or biowarfare with smallpox is a massive threat to the military and people and an obvious first choice of weapon for a bioterrorist. Careful governments will plan for it.
Isn't smallpox eradicated?
Yes. But. 1) There are still many samples across the world in government labs across the world. 2) The genome exists on computers in said labs. 3) Many other orthopox viruses exist such as cowpox and monkeypox. Monkeypox in particular has had more cases in subsaharan Africa in the last few years. There have even been small outbreaks in the US, UK, and Singapore within the last 20 years.
What about vaccines?
  1. Maybe you recall that in the 1790’s Edward Jenner discovered the first vaccine by giving people the milder cowpox to prevent smallpox. The state of the smallpox vaccine has not evolved significantly since then. The modern vaccine uses a two-prong poker to deliver a live smallpox virus that has been engineered to be very weak. However, it is still a real virus that can causes symptoms or spread the disease to others. One in five Americans have underlying conditions that prevent them from receiving this vaccine due to the symptoms it causes.
  2. What do you do when smallpox starts spreading rapidly? You need to be able to treat the potentially 100s of thousands of people who will be infected before the immunization takes effect. The US is well-prepared with the vaccine having 300 million doses, nearly enough for every American. But you need a treatment as part of the defense strategy.
  3. TPOXX is in the process of being approved as a prophylactic. I.e. if smallpox were to spread then people could be given both the vaccine and TPOXX at the same time to make sure they don’t get sick if they were exposed prior to vaccination. Prophylactic treatment could be extremely important to first-responders, military, and people in the most badly affected zones.

Fundamentals

I am no expert in reading 10-K filings, but SIGA's 10-K is not too complicated. I encourage you to do your own DD before making this play and if you've never read a 10-K filing before this is a great one to cut your teeth on. SIGA only has one key product line and their debt is uncomplicated (nonexistent); the only tricky parts is following the government money.

Balance sheet from most recent 10-Q
Balance sheet
So the things to look at here are:
  1. SIGA has plenty of cash. Enough for two years operating expenses without any sort of austerity. Even if the economic downturn affected their business model, they would weather it easily.
  2. They have $16 MM in inventory. That’s mostly TPOXX they’ve already manufactured. This is great because it means they will have low costs for meeting the current BARDA contract supply request for this year and that if they get more orders they can dedicate their supply chain to filling them.
  3. No debt. There’s no risk of them going tits up soon. Unlike your other favorite plays against highly-leveraged trash companies (looking at you Zillow), SIGA can ride out a credit crunch with ease.
  4. Stockholders’ equity aka book value. At a price to book of 5:1 this is a cheap biotech company, one of the reasons I see them as a value buy. Also of note, their property includes patents on TPOXX in virtually every country.

Cash flow
In 2019, SIGA took a $7 million loss while in 2018 they punched a $422 million gain. How did that happen? Their entire business runs on multi-year govt contracts. 2018 saw an older BARDA contract end with the orders completely filled to stuff the strategic stockpile. 2019 was a transition year.They have a new contract with BARDA to replenish expiring TPOXX and research then purchase new formulations for IV and pediatric use. So, looking at their 201910-K their earnings look abysmal, but their forward looking earnings are much better given their recent news releases.
Let’s look more at that contract since it is a principal revenue source. SIGA’s most recent 19C contract gives BARDA (Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority) the ability to purchase up to $602.5MM worth of product. The base contract guarantees $51.7 MM and BARDA announced the exercise of an additional $127.1 MM in purchasing for the next year as of a few weeks ago. Due to drug expiration and future preparedness, my opinion is that BARDA will exercise all of the purchasing options over the next 10 years.
Here’s my 2020 cash flow estimate, I am inexperienced at this sort of analysis. Pro 10-K readers, please give me some criticism.
-$24 MM from expenses for sales, admin, research, services ,patents. Average of last 2 years -10% because research activity is shut down
-$7 MM from additional costs of terminating loan. 10-Q
+$2 MM from part 1 of Canadian order. Press release
+$75 MM from three quarters of $101 MM exercise of BARDA contract. Estimated because they will supply TPOXX the next three quarters of 2020 and Q1 2021, press release
-$3 MM additional costs to fulfill orders. Estimate from BARDA contract’s allocation for supply costs
+$10 MM from contracts for research. Estimate by Q1 research revenue x 4
? a new $23 MM research contract with the department of defense was announced in June, unclear when they will receive the money at this time
$0 from stock buybacks and dividends, they have never had a dividend, but did do $800k in buybacks last year. They might have paid down their debt to put them in a position to do a lot more buybacks, so this is subject to change.
Total: +$53 MM
I expect the next few years to be cash flow positive now that they are out of the development phase and into the deployment phase. As they get additional international buyers they will also need to service their expiring stockpiles. This puts them at a forward price to earnings estimate of 10:1, still a value play in the current environment.
The high future cash flow is why I expect them to start pumping dividends or buybacks in a year. Since their research activities are primarily supported by the US government, they won't have other useful activities for the cash other than to return it to shareholders. Also, the guys who founded SIGA in the 90's probably want to retire on a fat dividend pretty soon. Dividends and buybacks are a big factor in how many analysts calculate stock prices so either development will push the share price up a lot.

International Sales
This is where SIGA make us gigatendies. The US sales are the bread and butter that will keep them afloat for years to come. International sales are where they grow. Their contracts with the US government let them sell TPOXX at about $350 per course because they funded the initial research, whereas Canada is paying about $950 per course giving SIGA a massive estimated 95% margin.
Let's see who might be interested in buying TPOXX as the China flu crisis unwinds: we've got most of western Europe/NATO--UK, France,Italy, Austria, Sweden, Switzerland, Germany, Spain; Pacific countries wary of being in the China sphere--Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, Singapore, Australia,Malaysia, Vietnam, Indonesia; and wealthy Middle Eastern countries that need to hedge against instability--Israel, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar; a smattering of other countries getting wise to viral threats--Russia, India,Brazil, South Africa, Mexico. That's a lot of potential buyers and it will only take a few for SIGA's price to shoot up. Also note that SIGA does not market internationally themselves, they are partnered with Meridian, a Pfizer subsidiary, for international sales.
SIGA also has an excellent moat internationally. They have patents for TPOXX and its analogs almost everywhere but China. Of course, there are still risks associated with international expansion, but the upside potential is yuuge. Let's hear it from the horse's mouth and see what SIGA had to say on their 2019 Q4 conference call:
Now let's discuss the international markets. The pursuit of international sales for oral TPOXX is a key focus for us at SIGA. Our partnership with Meridian Medical Technologies that we announced last June has been excellent. However as I've said many times the sales cycle is long for international government procurement of these types of products and each country has its own set of internal dynamics. ... I have been asked why we do not provide a country-by-country update on sales progress. We do not comment on specific progress with countries for two main reasons. First, we respect the confidentiality of our customers who would not want their deliberations to become public. And second, we would not want to signal to competitors which countries may be undergoing an expansion in their spending for biodefense. With that context in mind, we are pleased to share a progress report regarding the Canadian military, who announced in December and intend to issue contracts to support a Health Canada, regulatory filing and thep urchase of up to 15,825 courses of oral TPOXX for the Canadian military. A procurement order of this size would represent about 25%of the active military forces in Canada. Although this is a relatively modest number of courses it is precedent for military preparedness by a U.S. NATO ally.
What can we gather from that? They've got multiple sales in the works, but are keeping mum about it. Also, that it takes time to cut through government tape and announce these sales. Here's the single largest risk for this play: that it takes too long for international contracts to be announced. For this reason, I recommend buying stocks and not calls. The near term future is too unpredictable.

Research Activities
SIGA's main drug, oral TPOXX, is already completely FDA approved as safe in humans and effective in animals. A quirk of their niche is that since smallpox is eradicated, they can't ethically test the drug for effectiveness in humans. This helps their bottom line because they basically get to skip some of the trials of a typical drug development cycle.
SIGA's most important upcoming products are TPOXX for IV, liquid pediatric, and prophylactic use. Due to the current pandemic, all human trials are postponed, but the barriers for these trials are quite low. They only need to demonstrate human safety for the alternate ROA drugs. For prophylactic TPOXX, SIGA needs to demonstrate that TPOXX does not interfere with immunity acquisition from the smallpox vaccine. That way a potentially exposed person can both be treated and vaccinated at the same time. If they fail to meet these research goals, then I doubt the BARDA contract will be exercised for full value. Because of the delay in these results due to corona, I doubt that they threaten the trade that I'm proposing.
Orthopox viruses to deliver cancer therapeutics and older Lassa fever antivirals. I honestly don't know enough about their activities in these areas to make a comment. I think they are irrelevant to the base play, but could provide some surprise upside if there was a development.

Insider trading
The execs did more selling than buying last year which is perhaps bearish, but their most recent move was to buy a lot of stock in December after announcing the Canada deal. They sold stock at ~$5.80 in early 2019. Now, they're holding even though it is past $6. I think the COVID pandemic has massively increased SIGA’s value and their key people are holding at a price where they previously sold knowing that a lot more cash is coming in. I think there's also some possibility of acquisition at higher share price, being debt free makes them attractive to a buyer--just pick up all the shares, no liabilities to clean up.

Positions
I have 5% of my IRA in SIGA and a couple of long dated $10 calls (volume is shit FYI) in my funny money account.
Thank you for reading my novel.
Disclaimer: Just because I can write two coherent paragraphs on a play does not mean I know what I'm doing. Do your own due diligence.
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Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning August 3rd, 2020

Good Saturday morning to all of you here on stocks. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading month ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning August 3rd, 2020.

Earnings and fiscal debate could be catalysts for stocks in the week ahead - (Source)

The market could lose some of its exuberance in the week ahead as the calendar turns to August, and investors await Friday’s July employment report and keep their eyes on Washington.
The focus will also be squarely on politicians, as Congress struggles to find a middle ground on a new fiscal spending package and decide the fate of the $600 a week unemployment supplement that was set to expire July 31. Former vice president Joe Biden is also expected to name his running mate in the coming week.
The jobs data will be crucial, particularly since the number of people filing for unemployment benefits has been edging higher, instead of falling back, as expected. According to Refinitiv, about 1.36 million new jobs are expected, well below the 4.8 million added in June, and the unemployment rate is expected to fall to 10.7% from 11.1%.
Trading around the report could be volatile, since some economists expect more than 2 million jobs were added, and some even see flat or negative payrolls.
Stocks have done well for the month of July, with the S&P 500 finishing at 3,271, a gain of 5.5%. The Nasdaq has performed the best, rising 6.8% for the month to 10,745, after a 3.7% gain for the past week.
“August has traditionally been a challenging month for investors,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA. The market is entering what historically has been the worst two months for stocks.
According to Stovall, the S&P 500 has been higher in August 53% of the time, and its average move is a gain of just 0.01%, going back to World War II. September is worse, down 0.51% on average, and up just 48% of the time.
In presidential election years, however the odds for August gains are better, as it rose 63% of the time and 73%, when the incumbent is up for re-election.
There are also about 120 S&P 500 companies reporting earnings, but the big earnings show for markets was this past week when four of the five biggest tech giants all reported Thursday afternoon. Three of those stocks — Apple, Amazon and Facebook — surged, helping Nasdaq outperform Friday with a more than 1.5% gain.

Earnings scorecard

“We’re only a month into the reporting period, and things are going to become less and less important from an earnings perspective,” said Stovall. “I think investors are sort of disappointed in that the bar was set so low for second quarter earnings that expectations were that we were going to see a lot of companies beat, which we have. But we were also going to see a gradual uplift of earnings expectations for forward quarters. We’re not seeing that.”
Eighty-two percent of the companies reporting so far have beaten estimates, well above the average 65%, according to Refinitiv. The earnings decline is now looking closer to 33% from an initial 40%, and tech, which has been leading the market is one of the best performers. Profits for the sector now look to be up 1.4%, according to I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv.
Because the tech names have contributed so much to market gains, their earnings were an important test for the market, and they didn’t disappoint. But they didn’t manage to pull up the whole market very far on Friday.
Among the names reporting in the coming week are a diverse group, including Disney, ViacomCBS, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Berkshire Hathaway, AIG, Clorox, and Wayfair, to name a few.

Politics now in play

“The earnings story is over. My call had been once we had gotten through the earnings season, we would be more vulnerable to a sustainable pullback,” said Barry Knapp, Ironside Macroeconomics managing partner and director of research. “Obviously, it’s volatility season, but it’s also an election year. ... We’re more vulnerable to that next week and earnings won’t hold us up.”
Knapp said if President Donald Trump and Republicans do not begin to perform better in the polls by Labor Day, the market is likely to focus on what a Democratic win would mean for taxes and regulation. That could be a negative for stocks.
“If he hasn’t made headway by then, it’s likely he’s done.That’s about the point when things become pretty set in stone. The market will presume that’s the case,” Knapp said.
The politics of the stimulus package could also reverberate through markets, until it looks like the Senate Republicans and House Democrats can find common ground.
The two sides look to be at a standoff, but an agreement is still expected in early August. The market is particularly watching to see what happens with the enhanced unemployment benefits. Republicans have proposed cutting it to $200, but Democrats support keeping it.

The economy

Cutting the size of the payments back might be good for the labor market and persuade more workers to return to work, some strategists say. However, there is also concern that the funding has helped stimulate the economy and keep the unemployed from defaulting on loans and payments. Consumer spending on goods in June was even higher than last year, and that was also seen as getting a lift from stimulus.
Besides the jobs report, there are other important data like ISM manufacturing on Monday. There are also monthly vehicle sales Monday, and ISM nonmanufacturing data Wednesday.
“I think the macro data is going to be fine next week,” said Knapp. “I’m not in the camp that thinks the payroll number is going to be negative.”
NatWest Markets economist Kevin Cummins is one of the economists who expects the jobs gains to be much smaller than the past two months. He expects the payrolls to come in at just 200,000. “You look at jobless claims, and you see a stalling out,” he said. “The Fed is right. There is significant downside risk to the economy.”

A trade to watch

Treasury yields, in the 2-year to 7-year range, fell to new lows in the past week. The 10-year yield, not yet at a record low, was also falling and was at 0.53% Friday. At the same time, the dollar was down more than 1% on the week and 4% for the month.
Gold was a beneficiary of the lower interest rates, weaker dollar trade, rising about 5% for the week and 10% for the month.
Strategist say investors are reacting to super-low interest rates, concerns about the economy, and the possibility that huge government spending will send inflation higher.
Investors are also jumping into inflation-protected bonds. According to Refinitiv’s Lipper, inflation-protected bond funds took in $271 million of net new money for the fund-flows week ended July 29, the sixth week of gains. About $1 billion went into the SPDR Gold Shares ETF, (GLD) in the last week, Lipper said.
During this time period, the Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities funds recorded their two best weekly net inflows ever with increases of $1.9 billion and $1.5 billion, respectively, for the fund-flows weeks of June 24 and July 1.
Lipper said investors started to put money into TIPS funds in the middle of the second quarter, and the flows have been . net positive in 11 out of 13 weeks since the beginning of May. This its second-worst quarterly net outflows ever as oil prices slumped in the first quarter.
“I think this is going to be a much more inflationary decade. It will start out slowly. [Fed Chairman Jerome] Powell is right that more forces are putting downward pressure on inflation at present. But the market looks past that,” said Knapp. “The big story in 2021 will be the recovery of inflation. You’re already seeing it in import prices.”

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #3!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #4!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #5!)

August: Top NASDAQ & Russell 2000 Month of Election Years

August is amongst the worst months of the year. It is the worst DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 month over the last 32 years, 1988-2019 with average declines ranging from 0.1% by NASDAQ to 1.1% by DJIA.
Contributing to this poor performance since 1987; the second shortest bear market in history (45 days) caused by turmoil in Russia, the Asian currency crisis and the Long-Term Capital Management hedge fund debacle ending August 31, 1998 with the DJIA shedding 6.4% that day. DJIA dropped a record 1344.22 points for the month, off 15.1%—which is the second worst monthly percentage DJIA loss since 1950. Saddam Hussein triggered a 10.0% slide in August 1990. The best DJIA gains occurred in 1982 (11.5%) and 1984 (9.8%) as bear markets ended. Sizeable losses in 2010, 2011, 2013 and 2015 of over 4% on DJIA have widened Augusts’ average decline.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
However, in election years since 1950, Augusts’ rankings improve: #6 DJIA, #5 S&P 500, #1 NASDAQ (since 1971), #1 Russell 1000 and #1 Russell 2000 (since 1979). This year, the market’s performance in August will likely depend heavily on how July closes and whether or not the rate of covid-19 infection continues to accelerate which could force some areas to roll back reopenings.

August’s First Trading Day Bearish Last 23 Years

From the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2020 (page 88), it is known that the first trading days of each month combined gain nearly as much as all other days combined. However, the first trading day of August does not contribute to this phenomenon ranking worst among other First Trading Days in the 2020 Almanac. In the past 23 years DJIA has risen just 30.4% (up 7, down 16) of the time on the first trading day of August. Average and median losses are on the mild side due to a few sizable advances. Over the past nine years, DJIA and S&P 500 have both declined nine times.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P 500 Stronger Underneath the Surface

Earlier today we posted a chart showing S&P 500 sector performance since the Nasdaq's recent peak on 7/20 when Technology stocks began what has now been a 10-day period of consolidation. Below we have updated these performance numbers to include today's moves. While not as many sectors remain in positive territory, the majority of sectors continue to outperform the S&P 500, while Technology drags the market lower. Along with Technology, Communication Services, and Consumer Discretionary are the only other sectors that have lagged the S&P 500, and their performance has been dragged down by the mega-cap tech-like stocks of Alphabet (GOOGL), Facebook (FB), and Amazon (AMZN).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Expanding on this theme of underlying strength in the index, the chart below shows the average performance of stocks in the S&P 500 grouped by sector. On an equal-weighted basis, the S&P 500 is actually up 1.3% since 7/20, and only two sectors (Technology and Materials) have seen negative average returns. On the upside, Real Estate (4.1%) has been the big winner followed by Consumer Discretionary (3.3%), and Consumer Staples (2.2%). The fact that Consumer Discretionary at the cap-weighted sector level is down over 1.4% while the average performance of stocks in the sector has been a gain of 3.3% illustrates what a mammoth impact AMZN has on that sector.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Breadth among S&P 500 stocks has also been overwhelmingly positive. For the S&P 500 as a whole, 59% of stocks in the index have had positive returns since the close on 7/20. Only two sectors (Technology and Materials) have seen fewer than half of their components post positive returns over that time, while Real Estate, Consumer Staples, and Utilities have seen roughly three-quarters of their components rally since 7/20.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Bullish Earnings Season So Far

At our Earnings Explorer tool available to clients on our website, we provide a real-time look at beat rates for both EPS and sales. Below is a snapshot from the website showing both the EPS and sales beat rates for US companies reporting earnings on a rolling 3-month basis. Currently, 64.61% of companies have exceeded consensus analyst EPS estimates over the last three months, while 63.75% of companies have beaten consensus sales estimates over the same time frame.
In looking at the chart, you can see a big spike in the EPS beat rate over the last few weeks. Since earnings season began on July 13th, nearly 80% of companies have posted stronger than expected EPS numbers. That's a huge beat rate and suggests that analysts were too bearish on Q2 numbers heading into July. The revenue beat rate held up much better than EPS beats throughout the first half of 2020, but it too is on the upswing this season.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
We also monitor how share prices are reacting to earnings reports. So far this earnings season, the average stock that has reported Q2 numbers has gained 1.31% on its earnings reaction day. That compares to a historical average one-day change of just 0.06% on earnings reaction days. As shown below, stocks that have beaten EPS estimates this season have gained 2.2% on earnings reaction days, while companies that have missed EPS estimates have fallen 1.89%. It's rare to see beats gaining more than misses decline, but that's what is happening this season.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

China Running Away YTD

Every Wednesday, we publish our Global Macro Dashboard which provides a high-level summary of market and economic data of some of the world's largest economies. Of the 23 stock markets tracked, just six including the US are positive year to date at the moment (in local currency). In the chart below we show the YTD performance of these six countries as well as the global median in 2020. As shown, even though it was actually the first to tip into the green YTD following the global sell-off in February and March very briefly back in early June, the US is up the least of this group with a YTD gain of 0.4%. China's stock market is up the most at +14%. Taiwan, South Korea, South Africa, and Malaysia are also outperforming the US but are up more modestly than China with the best of these, Taiwan, gaining 4.53% this year. Meanwhile, the median country in our Global Macro Dashboard remains down 6.2% YTD.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Given it is up the most on a year to date basis, China has also gained the largest share of global equity market cap in 2020. As shown in the table below, China has gained 1.7 percentage points of global market cap in 2020 and now takes up 10.14%. China now joins the US as the only other country with a double-digit share of total world market cap. Despite this, China has actually lost share since the bear market lows on 3/23. Meanwhile, the US, Germany, Canada, India, South Korea, and Australia have all gained a significant share since 3/23.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Do the Top 5 Stocks Pose a Risk to the Market?

Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Facebook. These five stocks have helped spawn a number of acronyms as they try to capture the rise of mega-cap tech stocks that have led the market higher for much of the past decade. The average return for those five stocks so far this year has been a gain of more than 30%, while the broad S&P 500 Index is just marginally positive, at 0.4% through July 30.
While many other areas of the market have remained largely static, the total market value of these stocks has dramatically increased, making them an increasingly large piece of market cap-weighted indexes such as the S&P 500. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the combined weight of the top five stocks in the S&P 500 has increased to its highest level ever, at nearly 22%. Only one of those five stocks (Microsoft) was a top five name in the index during the previous peak of March 2000.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
But does this pose a risk to the index? From a diversification standpoint, one could certainly argue it does. For instance, if any shared risks should come up, from regulation, for example, it could do outsized damage to cap-weighted indexes. However, we believe that the recent gains have been justified by the fundamentals, and we continue to favor both large caps over small caps, and growth-style stocks over value stocks. According to analysis from Credit Suisse, over the past 12 months, the top five stocks in the index have grown revenues at 11.2% vs. just 0.8% for the rest of the S&P 500. Further, the remainder of the S&P 500 has subtracted roughly $17 from S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS), while the top five stocks have added more than $12.
Finally, while these stocks have been the face of the recent “stay-at-home trend” and may be more insulated from broader economic weakness, they are far from the only stocks making money this year. On July 30, the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index hit a new all-time high and is now up more than 15% year-to-date.
“After a huge run, many of these top stocks may be due for a pause,” said LPL Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “However, looking out over the next 6 to 12 months, we believe that investors will continue to place a premium on companies that are able to organically grow sales, especially in a low-growth environment.”
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
  • $CLX
  • $BYND
  • $SQ
  • $MRNA
  • $ROKU
  • $FSLY
  • $TSN
  • $ATVI
  • $CHGG
  • $CVS
  • $W
  • $DIS
  • $MELI
  • $GPN
  • $SPCE
  • $TWLO
  • $CMS
  • $LVGO
  • $MCK
  • $AMRN
  • $ETSY
  • $PLUG
  • $NET
  • $BMY
  • $RACE
  • $TTWO
  • $MPC
  • $MPLX
  • $ZNGA
  • $DBX
  • $DDOG
  • $UBER
  • $WIX
  • $KOS
  • $TTD
  • $ENPH
  • $CRON
  • $BP
  • $TEVA
  • $PENN
  • $FVRR
  • $RNG
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST INCREASE IN EARNINGS EXPECTATIONS!)
(CLICK HERE FOR MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES FOR MONDAY, AUGUST 3RD, 2020!)
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 8.3.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Monday 8.3.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)

Tuesday 8.4.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)

Tuesday 8.4.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #3!)

Wednesday 8.5.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)

Wednesday 8.5.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #3!)
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #4!)

Thursday 8.6.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #3!)

Thursday 8.6.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #3!)

Friday 8.7.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 8.7.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Clorox Co. $236.51

Clorox Co. (CLX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Monday, August 3, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.00 per share on revenue of $1.83 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.06 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 78% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 6.38% with revenue increasing by 12.48%. Short interest has increased by 9.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 22.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 33.0% above its 200 day moving average of $177.86. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, July 31, 2020 there was some notable buying of 2,147 contracts of the $250.00 call and 1,848 contracts of the $220.00 put expiring on Friday, August 7, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 7.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.6% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Beyond Meat, Inc. $125.90

Beyond Meat, Inc. (BYND) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, August 4, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.02 per share on revenue of $97.75 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.01 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 71% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 300.00% with revenue increasing by 45.35%. Short interest has decreased by 27.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 14.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 21.7% above its 200 day moving average of $103.45. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 23.1% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Square, Inc. $129.85

Square, Inc. (SQ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Wednesday, August 5, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.05 per share on revenue of $1.01 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.01) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 59% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 126.32% with revenue decreasing by 13.99%. Short interest has decreased by 20.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 85.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 71.3% above its 200 day moving average of $75.80. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, July 14, 2020 there was some notable buying of 9,381 contracts of the $97.50 call expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 9.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.1% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Moderna, Inc., $74.10

Moderna, Inc., (MRNA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Wednesday, August 5, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.36 per share on revenue of $19.83 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.34) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 66% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 12.20% with revenue increasing by 51.57%. Short interest has increased by 3.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 32.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 99.3% above its 200 day moving average of $37.17. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, July 24, 2020 there was some notable buying of 12,120 contracts of the $95.00 call expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 12.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.3% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Roku Inc $154.89

Roku Inc (ROKU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Wednesday, August 5, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.55 per share on revenue of $305.10 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.47) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 73% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 587.50% with revenue increasing by 21.99%. The stock has drifted higher by 23.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 23.0% above its 200 day moving average of $125.96. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, July 20, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,243 contracts of the $125.00 put expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 13.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 17.4% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Fastly, Inc. $96.49

Fastly, Inc. (FSLY) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Wednesday, August 5, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.01 per share on revenue of $60.42 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.01 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 82% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $70.00 million to $72.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 93.75% with revenue increasing by 30.86%. Short interest has increased by 186.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 229.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 186.0% above its 200 day moving average of $33.74. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 17.8% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Tyson Foods Inc. $61.45

Tyson Foods Inc. (TSN) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:35 AM ET on Monday, August 3, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.90 per share on revenue of $10.49 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.96 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 44% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 38.78% with revenue decreasing by 3.63%. Short interest has decreased by 38.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 5.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 14.3% below its 200 day moving average of $71.73. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, July 31, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,804 contracts of the $60.00 put expiring on Friday, October 16, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.9% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Activision Blizzard, Inc. $82.63

Activision Blizzard, Inc. (ATVI) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, August 4, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.63 per share on revenue of $1.70 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.73 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 81% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of approximately $0.64 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 57.50% with revenue increasing by 21.78%. Short interest has decreased by 32.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 11.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 29.7% above its 200 day moving average of $63.71. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, July 31, 2020 there was some notable buying of 8,749 contracts of the $85.00 call expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 8.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.9% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Chegg Inc. $80.97

Chegg Inc. (CHGG) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Monday, August 3, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.32 per share on revenue of $136.52 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.35 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 85% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $135.00 million to $137.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 100.00% with revenue increasing by 45.45%. Short interest has decreased by 21.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 51.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 74.9% above its 200 day moving average of $46.28. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, July 30, 2020 there was some notable buying of 2,335 contracts of the $90.00 call expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 13.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 13.6% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

CVS Health $62.94

CVS Health (CVS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Wednesday, August 5, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.91 per share on revenue of $64.49 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.96 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 75% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 1.06% with revenue increasing by 1.67%. Short interest has increased by 21.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 0.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.7% below its 200 day moving average of $66.72. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, July 28, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,028 contracts of the $85.00 call expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 5.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.6% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead stocks.
submitted by bigbear0083 to stocks [link] [comments]

Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning August 3rd, 2020

Good Saturday morning to all of you here on StockMarket. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading month ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning August 3rd, 2020.

Earnings and fiscal debate could be catalysts for stocks in the week ahead - (Source)

The market could lose some of its exuberance in the week ahead as the calendar turns to August, and investors await Friday’s July employment report and keep their eyes on Washington.
The focus will also be squarely on politicians, as Congress struggles to find a middle ground on a new fiscal spending package and decide the fate of the $600 a week unemployment supplement that was set to expire July 31. Former vice president Joe Biden is also expected to name his running mate in the coming week.
The jobs data will be crucial, particularly since the number of people filing for unemployment benefits has been edging higher, instead of falling back, as expected. According to Refinitiv, about 1.36 million new jobs are expected, well below the 4.8 million added in June, and the unemployment rate is expected to fall to 10.7% from 11.1%.
Trading around the report could be volatile, since some economists expect more than 2 million jobs were added, and some even see flat or negative payrolls.
Stocks have done well for the month of July, with the S&P 500 finishing at 3,271, a gain of 5.5%. The Nasdaq has performed the best, rising 6.8% for the month to 10,745, after a 3.7% gain for the past week.
“August has traditionally been a challenging month for investors,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA. The market is entering what historically has been the worst two months for stocks.
According to Stovall, the S&P 500 has been higher in August 53% of the time, and its average move is a gain of just 0.01%, going back to World War II. September is worse, down 0.51% on average, and up just 48% of the time.
In presidential election years, however the odds for August gains are better, as it rose 63% of the time and 73%, when the incumbent is up for re-election.
There are also about 120 S&P 500 companies reporting earnings, but the big earnings show for markets was this past week when four of the five biggest tech giants all reported Thursday afternoon. Three of those stocks — Apple, Amazon and Facebook — surged, helping Nasdaq outperform Friday with a more than 1.5% gain.

Earnings scorecard

“We’re only a month into the reporting period, and things are going to become less and less important from an earnings perspective,” said Stovall. “I think investors are sort of disappointed in that the bar was set so low for second quarter earnings that expectations were that we were going to see a lot of companies beat, which we have. But we were also going to see a gradual uplift of earnings expectations for forward quarters. We’re not seeing that.”
Eighty-two percent of the companies reporting so far have beaten estimates, well above the average 65%, according to Refinitiv. The earnings decline is now looking closer to 33% from an initial 40%, and tech, which has been leading the market is one of the best performers. Profits for the sector now look to be up 1.4%, according to I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv.
Because the tech names have contributed so much to market gains, their earnings were an important test for the market, and they didn’t disappoint. But they didn’t manage to pull up the whole market very far on Friday.
Among the names reporting in the coming week are a diverse group, including Disney, ViacomCBS, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Berkshire Hathaway, AIG, Clorox, and Wayfair, to name a few.

Politics now in play

“The earnings story is over. My call had been once we had gotten through the earnings season, we would be more vulnerable to a sustainable pullback,” said Barry Knapp, Ironside Macroeconomics managing partner and director of research. “Obviously, it’s volatility season, but it’s also an election year. ... We’re more vulnerable to that next week and earnings won’t hold us up.”
Knapp said if President Donald Trump and Republicans do not begin to perform better in the polls by Labor Day, the market is likely to focus on what a Democratic win would mean for taxes and regulation. That could be a negative for stocks.
“If he hasn’t made headway by then, it’s likely he’s done.That’s about the point when things become pretty set in stone. The market will presume that’s the case,” Knapp said.
The politics of the stimulus package could also reverberate through markets, until it looks like the Senate Republicans and House Democrats can find common ground.
The two sides look to be at a standoff, but an agreement is still expected in early August. The market is particularly watching to see what happens with the enhanced unemployment benefits. Republicans have proposed cutting it to $200, but Democrats support keeping it.

The economy

Cutting the size of the payments back might be good for the labor market and persuade more workers to return to work, some strategists say. However, there is also concern that the funding has helped stimulate the economy and keep the unemployed from defaulting on loans and payments. Consumer spending on goods in June was even higher than last year, and that was also seen as getting a lift from stimulus.
Besides the jobs report, there are other important data like ISM manufacturing on Monday. There are also monthly vehicle sales Monday, and ISM nonmanufacturing data Wednesday.
“I think the macro data is going to be fine next week,” said Knapp. “I’m not in the camp that thinks the payroll number is going to be negative.”
NatWest Markets economist Kevin Cummins is one of the economists who expects the jobs gains to be much smaller than the past two months. He expects the payrolls to come in at just 200,000. “You look at jobless claims, and you see a stalling out,” he said. “The Fed is right. There is significant downside risk to the economy.”

A trade to watch

Treasury yields, in the 2-year to 7-year range, fell to new lows in the past week. The 10-year yield, not yet at a record low, was also falling and was at 0.53% Friday. At the same time, the dollar was down more than 1% on the week and 4% for the month.
Gold was a beneficiary of the lower interest rates, weaker dollar trade, rising about 5% for the week and 10% for the month.
Strategist say investors are reacting to super-low interest rates, concerns about the economy, and the possibility that huge government spending will send inflation higher.
Investors are also jumping into inflation-protected bonds. According to Refinitiv’s Lipper, inflation-protected bond funds took in $271 million of net new money for the fund-flows week ended July 29, the sixth week of gains. About $1 billion went into the SPDR Gold Shares ETF, (GLD) in the last week, Lipper said.
During this time period, the Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities funds recorded their two best weekly net inflows ever with increases of $1.9 billion and $1.5 billion, respectively, for the fund-flows weeks of June 24 and July 1.
Lipper said investors started to put money into TIPS funds in the middle of the second quarter, and the flows have been . net positive in 11 out of 13 weeks since the beginning of May. This its second-worst quarterly net outflows ever as oil prices slumped in the first quarter.
“I think this is going to be a much more inflationary decade. It will start out slowly. [Fed Chairman Jerome] Powell is right that more forces are putting downward pressure on inflation at present. But the market looks past that,” said Knapp. “The big story in 2021 will be the recovery of inflation. You’re already seeing it in import prices.”

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #3!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #4!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #5!)

August: Top NASDAQ & Russell 2000 Month of Election Years

August is amongst the worst months of the year. It is the worst DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 month over the last 32 years, 1988-2019 with average declines ranging from 0.1% by NASDAQ to 1.1% by DJIA.
Contributing to this poor performance since 1987; the second shortest bear market in history (45 days) caused by turmoil in Russia, the Asian currency crisis and the Long-Term Capital Management hedge fund debacle ending August 31, 1998 with the DJIA shedding 6.4% that day. DJIA dropped a record 1344.22 points for the month, off 15.1%—which is the second worst monthly percentage DJIA loss since 1950. Saddam Hussein triggered a 10.0% slide in August 1990. The best DJIA gains occurred in 1982 (11.5%) and 1984 (9.8%) as bear markets ended. Sizeable losses in 2010, 2011, 2013 and 2015 of over 4% on DJIA have widened Augusts’ average decline.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
However, in election years since 1950, Augusts’ rankings improve: #6 DJIA, #5 S&P 500, #1 NASDAQ (since 1971), #1 Russell 1000 and #1 Russell 2000 (since 1979). This year, the market’s performance in August will likely depend heavily on how July closes and whether or not the rate of covid-19 infection continues to accelerate which could force some areas to roll back reopenings.

August’s First Trading Day Bearish Last 23 Years

From the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2020 (page 88), it is known that the first trading days of each month combined gain nearly as much as all other days combined. However, the first trading day of August does not contribute to this phenomenon ranking worst among other First Trading Days in the 2020 Almanac. In the past 23 years DJIA has risen just 30.4% (up 7, down 16) of the time on the first trading day of August. Average and median losses are on the mild side due to a few sizable advances. Over the past nine years, DJIA and S&P 500 have both declined nine times.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P 500 Stronger Underneath the Surface

Earlier today we posted a chart showing S&P 500 sector performance since the Nasdaq's recent peak on 7/20 when Technology stocks began what has now been a 10-day period of consolidation. Below we have updated these performance numbers to include today's moves. While not as many sectors remain in positive territory, the majority of sectors continue to outperform the S&P 500, while Technology drags the market lower. Along with Technology, Communication Services, and Consumer Discretionary are the only other sectors that have lagged the S&P 500, and their performance has been dragged down by the mega-cap tech-like stocks of Alphabet (GOOGL), Facebook (FB), and Amazon (AMZN).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Expanding on this theme of underlying strength in the index, the chart below shows the average performance of stocks in the S&P 500 grouped by sector. On an equal-weighted basis, the S&P 500 is actually up 1.3% since 7/20, and only two sectors (Technology and Materials) have seen negative average returns. On the upside, Real Estate (4.1%) has been the big winner followed by Consumer Discretionary (3.3%), and Consumer Staples (2.2%). The fact that Consumer Discretionary at the cap-weighted sector level is down over 1.4% while the average performance of stocks in the sector has been a gain of 3.3% illustrates what a mammoth impact AMZN has on that sector.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Breadth among S&P 500 stocks has also been overwhelmingly positive. For the S&P 500 as a whole, 59% of stocks in the index have had positive returns since the close on 7/20. Only two sectors (Technology and Materials) have seen fewer than half of their components post positive returns over that time, while Real Estate, Consumer Staples, and Utilities have seen roughly three-quarters of their components rally since 7/20.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Bullish Earnings Season So Far

At our Earnings Explorer tool available to clients on our website, we provide a real-time look at beat rates for both EPS and sales. Below is a snapshot from the website showing both the EPS and sales beat rates for US companies reporting earnings on a rolling 3-month basis. Currently, 64.61% of companies have exceeded consensus analyst EPS estimates over the last three months, while 63.75% of companies have beaten consensus sales estimates over the same time frame.
In looking at the chart, you can see a big spike in the EPS beat rate over the last few weeks. Since earnings season began on July 13th, nearly 80% of companies have posted stronger than expected EPS numbers. That's a huge beat rate and suggests that analysts were too bearish on Q2 numbers heading into July. The revenue beat rate held up much better than EPS beats throughout the first half of 2020, but it too is on the upswing this season.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
We also monitor how share prices are reacting to earnings reports. So far this earnings season, the average stock that has reported Q2 numbers has gained 1.31% on its earnings reaction day. That compares to a historical average one-day change of just 0.06% on earnings reaction days. As shown below, stocks that have beaten EPS estimates this season have gained 2.2% on earnings reaction days, while companies that have missed EPS estimates have fallen 1.89%. It's rare to see beats gaining more than misses decline, but that's what is happening this season.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

China Running Away YTD

Every Wednesday, we publish our Global Macro Dashboard which provides a high-level summary of market and economic data of some of the world's largest economies. Of the 23 stock markets tracked, just six including the US are positive year to date at the moment (in local currency). In the chart below we show the YTD performance of these six countries as well as the global median in 2020. As shown, even though it was actually the first to tip into the green YTD following the global sell-off in February and March very briefly back in early June, the US is up the least of this group with a YTD gain of 0.4%. China's stock market is up the most at +14%. Taiwan, South Korea, South Africa, and Malaysia are also outperforming the US but are up more modestly than China with the best of these, Taiwan, gaining 4.53% this year. Meanwhile, the median country in our Global Macro Dashboard remains down 6.2% YTD.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Given it is up the most on a year to date basis, China has also gained the largest share of global equity market cap in 2020. As shown in the table below, China has gained 1.7 percentage points of global market cap in 2020 and now takes up 10.14%. China now joins the US as the only other country with a double-digit share of total world market cap. Despite this, China has actually lost share since the bear market lows on 3/23. Meanwhile, the US, Germany, Canada, India, South Korea, and Australia have all gained a significant share since 3/23.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Do the Top 5 Stocks Pose a Risk to the Market?

Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Facebook. These five stocks have helped spawn a number of acronyms as they try to capture the rise of mega-cap tech stocks that have led the market higher for much of the past decade. The average return for those five stocks so far this year has been a gain of more than 30%, while the broad S&P 500 Index is just marginally positive, at 0.4% through July 30.
While many other areas of the market have remained largely static, the total market value of these stocks has dramatically increased, making them an increasingly large piece of market cap-weighted indexes such as the S&P 500. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the combined weight of the top five stocks in the S&P 500 has increased to its highest level ever, at nearly 22%. Only one of those five stocks (Microsoft) was a top five name in the index during the previous peak of March 2000.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
But does this pose a risk to the index? From a diversification standpoint, one could certainly argue it does. For instance, if any shared risks should come up, from regulation, for example, it could do outsized damage to cap-weighted indexes. However, we believe that the recent gains have been justified by the fundamentals, and we continue to favor both large caps over small caps, and growth-style stocks over value stocks. According to analysis from Credit Suisse, over the past 12 months, the top five stocks in the index have grown revenues at 11.2% vs. just 0.8% for the rest of the S&P 500. Further, the remainder of the S&P 500 has subtracted roughly $17 from S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS), while the top five stocks have added more than $12.
Finally, while these stocks have been the face of the recent “stay-at-home trend” and may be more insulated from broader economic weakness, they are far from the only stocks making money this year. On July 30, the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index hit a new all-time high and is now up more than 15% year-to-date.
“After a huge run, many of these top stocks may be due for a pause,” said LPL Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “However, looking out over the next 6 to 12 months, we believe that investors will continue to place a premium on companies that are able to organically grow sales, especially in a low-growth environment.”

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending July 31st, 2020

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 8.2.20

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
  • $CLX
  • $BYND
  • $SQ
  • $MRNA
  • $ROKU
  • $FSLY
  • $TSN
  • $ATVI
  • $CHGG
  • $CVS
  • $W
  • $DIS
  • $MELI
  • $GPN
  • $SPCE
  • $TWLO
  • $CMS
  • $LVGO
  • $MCK
  • $AMRN
  • $ETSY
  • $PLUG
  • $NET
  • $BMY
  • $RACE
  • $TTWO
  • $MPC
  • $MPLX
  • $ZNGA
  • $DBX
  • $DDOG
  • $UBER
  • $WIX
  • $KOS
  • $TTD
  • $ENPH
  • $CRON
  • $BP
  • $TEVA
  • $PENN
  • $FVRR
  • $RNG
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST INCREASE IN EARNINGS EXPECTATIONS!)
(CLICK HERE FOR MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES FOR MONDAY, AUGUST 3RD, 2020!)
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 8.3.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Monday 8.3.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)

Tuesday 8.4.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)

Tuesday 8.4.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #3!)

Wednesday 8.5.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)

Wednesday 8.5.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #3!)
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #4!)

Thursday 8.6.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #3!)

Thursday 8.6.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #3!)

Friday 8.7.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 8.7.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Clorox Co. $236.51

Clorox Co. (CLX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Monday, August 3, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.00 per share on revenue of $1.83 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.06 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 78% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 6.38% with revenue increasing by 12.48%. Short interest has increased by 9.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 22.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 33.0% above its 200 day moving average of $177.86. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, July 31, 2020 there was some notable buying of 2,147 contracts of the $250.00 call and 1,848 contracts of the $220.00 put expiring on Friday, August 7, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 7.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.6% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Beyond Meat, Inc. $125.90

Beyond Meat, Inc. (BYND) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, August 4, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.02 per share on revenue of $97.75 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.01 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 71% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 300.00% with revenue increasing by 45.35%. Short interest has decreased by 27.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 14.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 21.7% above its 200 day moving average of $103.45. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 23.1% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Square, Inc. $129.85

Square, Inc. (SQ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Wednesday, August 5, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.05 per share on revenue of $1.01 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.01) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 59% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 126.32% with revenue decreasing by 13.99%. Short interest has decreased by 20.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 85.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 71.3% above its 200 day moving average of $75.80. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, July 14, 2020 there was some notable buying of 9,381 contracts of the $97.50 call expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 9.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.1% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Moderna, Inc., $74.10

Moderna, Inc., (MRNA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Wednesday, August 5, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.36 per share on revenue of $19.83 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.34) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 66% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 12.20% with revenue increasing by 51.57%. Short interest has increased by 3.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 32.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 99.3% above its 200 day moving average of $37.17. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, July 24, 2020 there was some notable buying of 12,120 contracts of the $95.00 call expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 12.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.3% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Roku Inc $154.89

Roku Inc (ROKU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Wednesday, August 5, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.55 per share on revenue of $305.10 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.47) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 73% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 587.50% with revenue increasing by 21.99%. The stock has drifted higher by 23.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 23.0% above its 200 day moving average of $125.96. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, July 20, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,243 contracts of the $125.00 put expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 13.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 17.4% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Fastly, Inc. $96.49

Fastly, Inc. (FSLY) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Wednesday, August 5, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.01 per share on revenue of $60.42 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.01 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 82% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $70.00 million to $72.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 93.75% with revenue increasing by 30.86%. Short interest has increased by 186.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 229.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 186.0% above its 200 day moving average of $33.74. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 17.8% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Tyson Foods Inc. $61.45

Tyson Foods Inc. (TSN) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:35 AM ET on Monday, August 3, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.90 per share on revenue of $10.49 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.96 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 44% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 38.78% with revenue decreasing by 3.63%. Short interest has decreased by 38.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 5.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 14.3% below its 200 day moving average of $71.73. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, July 31, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,804 contracts of the $60.00 put expiring on Friday, October 16, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.9% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Activision Blizzard, Inc. $82.63

Activision Blizzard, Inc. (ATVI) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, August 4, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.63 per share on revenue of $1.70 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.73 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 81% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of approximately $0.64 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 57.50% with revenue increasing by 21.78%. Short interest has decreased by 32.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 11.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 29.7% above its 200 day moving average of $63.71. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, July 31, 2020 there was some notable buying of 8,749 contracts of the $85.00 call expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 8.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.9% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Chegg Inc. $80.97

Chegg Inc. (CHGG) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Monday, August 3, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.32 per share on revenue of $136.52 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.35 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 85% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $135.00 million to $137.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 100.00% with revenue increasing by 45.45%. Short interest has decreased by 21.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 51.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 74.9% above its 200 day moving average of $46.28. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, July 30, 2020 there was some notable buying of 2,335 contracts of the $90.00 call expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 13.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 13.6% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

CVS Health $62.94

CVS Health (CVS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Wednesday, August 5, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.91 per share on revenue of $64.49 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.96 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 75% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 1.06% with revenue increasing by 1.67%. Short interest has increased by 21.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 0.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.7% below its 200 day moving average of $66.72. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, July 28, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,028 contracts of the $85.00 call expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 5.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.6% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead StockMarket.
submitted by bigbear0083 to StockMarket [link] [comments]

Trade responsibly,

Good luck today guys, hope everyone makes some tendies
Edit 8:30PM Thanks for the love and awards guys, hope everyone ended the week off positive, enjoy your weekend.
Of note for Airlines (LUV, DAL, AAL, UAL), the Airlines for Americas trade association says the industry needs “immediate financial assistance” to protect the 11mln jobs it represents.
Of note for Banks (JPM, C, MS, BAC, GS), the Fed is encouraged by a notable increase in discount window borrowing as banks show a willingness to use the window as a funding source to support the flow of credit to households and businesses.
Of note for Car Rental Services (HTZ, CAR), both Hertz and Avis Budget Corp have requested aid from the US government.

Dow Jones

Apple Inc. (AAPL) supply chain is reportedly still facing supply disruptions even as China recovers due to factory closures of suppliers in Malaysia. Elsewhere, it has limited the number of purchases on its iPhones to two per customer in the US and China, according to Canalys.
Boeing Company (BA) is reportedly leaning towards a temporary halt of operations at its twin-aisle jetliner factories due to the spread of the coronavirus, according to people familiar with the matter, in a similar move to Airbus (AIR FP).
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Global Supply Chain Officer Wengel announced its supply chain is currently holding steady and meeting patient needs.
Walmart (WMT) announced it is planning to give special cash bonuses for hourly associates for their work during the current conditions with full-time associates receiving USD 300 and part-time associates receiving USD 150, which will equate to USD 365mln. WMT is to also accelerate its next bonus for store, club and supply chain associates which will equate to USD 180mln, overall it will equate to USD 550mln, the co. says. WMT is to also hire over 150k hourly employees as the number of shoppers increases.

Nasdaq 100

Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN)– Some sellers state its decision to stop receiving non-essential inventory in response to the coronavirus pandemic could limit sales they need to make payments on its loans from Amazon.
Tesla (TSLA) announced it decided to temporarily suspend production at its Fremont, California factory and NY Factory after March 23rd. Elsewhere, CEO Musk announced his factories are working on ventilators to address a potential shortage.
United Continental Holdings (UAL)Apollo Global Management (APO) has reportedly purchased part of the airlines USD 2bln loan from a group of banks, according to people familiar with the matter.

S&P 500

Accenture plc (ACN) had its PT cut at a number of brokers, however, they were positive on its ability to continue through the coronavirus crisis.
AFLAC Inc (AFL) American Family Life Assurance of Columbus and New York agreed to acquire Zurich North America's US corporate Life and Pensions. AFL expects the acquisition to be dilutive to 2020 adj. EPS by USD 0.02 to 0.03.
Altria Group Inc (MO) announced it is temporarily suspending operations at its Richmond manufacturing center.
Anthem Inc. (ANTM) announced it is offering up to 80 hours of paid emergency leave for qualifying needs, including if associates are experiencing coronavirus symptoms or for caring for young children whose school has been closed.
AT&T Inc. (T) announced it has cancelled is accelerates share repurchase programme of USD 4bln worth of stock, noting the impact of the coronavirus could be material although it cannot currently estimate the impact onto its financial or operational results.
Bank of America Corp (BAC) announced it is offering additional support for its consumer and small business clients in response to the coronavirus, where clients can request funds including overdraft fees, non-sufficient funds fees, and monthly maintenance fees through deposit accounts. Many customers can also request to defer any payments.
Carnival Corp. (CCL) preliminary Q1 20 (USD): EPS 0.22 (exp. 0.27), revenue 4.8bln (exp. 4.66bln); coronavirus resulted in a net loss of 0.23/shr.
Cintas Corporation (CTAS) Q3 20 (USD): Adj. EPS 2.16 (exp. 2.02), revenue 1.81bln (exp. 1.8bln), gross margin 45.5% (exp. 45.7%, prev. 44.9% Y/Y); announced it is not providing guidance for Q4 20 and it is suspending FY20 guidance due to uncertainty surrounding the coronavirus.
Coty, Inc (COTY) provided an update on the current situation: Expects Q3 20 revenue to fall approximately 20% like for like, with a meaningful impact on profit, it has also withdrawn FY20 guidance. It is recommending to the board that shareholders be given the option to receive up to 100% of their quarterly dividend in kind for the coming two quarters. Its largest shareholder JAB decided to fully repay the loan it used to finance the tender offer in 2019. It is taking initiatives to manufacture hand sanitizer. Notes activations on Amazon have seen US sales nearly double in recent weeks, as well as launching the Kylie skin-care Europe in upcoming weeks; it is also preparing for increased demand post coronavirus.
Danaher Corp. (DHR) announced the US FTC is on board with the acquisition of General Electric’s (GE) Life Sciences Biopharma Business. The closing of the deal is still subject to customary closing conditions as announced in the agreement, but DHR expects the deal to close on March 31st, 2020.
Ford Motor (F) announced it has plans to suspend production in Argentina and Brazil starting next week due to the coronavirus.
Kohl's Corp. (KSS) announced it is to close its stores nationwide through to at least April 1st, although customers will still be able to shop on its App. It also withdrew guidance for Q1 and FY20.
Mylan N.V. (MYL) announced it is increasing production of its malaria drug for potential use to combat the coronavirus.
Occidental Petroleum (OXY) is reportedly planning on naming its former CEO Stephen Chazen as its new chairman as it tries to improve amid weak demand and activism from Carl Icahn, according to WSJ citing people familiar with the matter.
Sysco Corp. (SYY) announced it will donate 2.5mln meals over the next four weeks as part of its response strategy to help against COVID-19. Elsewhere, it has withdrawn its three-year plan guidance due to the impact from the coronavirus.
Tiffany & Co. (TIF) Q4 19 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.80 (exp. 1.77), revenue 1.4bln (exp. 1.36bln); SSS +3%, SSS Ex-Hong Kong +5%, Gross Margin 63.3% (Prev. Y/Y 63.8%). Announced it will not be issuing FY20 guidance due to the pending merger with LVMH

Other

Crowdstrike (CRWD) Q4 19 (USD): Adj. EPS -0.02 (exp. -0.08), Revenue 152mln (exp. 137mln); FY21 Adj. EPS view -0.14 to -0.10 (exp. -0.18), revenue view 723-733mln (exp. 685mln)
Samsung (SSNLF) has reportedly been hit hard by Vietnam’s travel restrictions from South Korea, fueling concerns its Galaxy Note smartphones will fall behind schedule in its largest manufacturing hub outside South Korea
Teva (TEVA) announced it will be donating over 6mln doses of hydroxychloroquine sulfate tablets across the US to meet the urgent demand for the medicine as an investigational target to treat the coronavirus.

Additional US Equity Stories

Of note for casino names (MGM, CZR, WYNN, MLCO); Macau has halved its 2020 gaming revenue forecast due to the coronavirus and predicts a 56% fall from previous year to USD 16bln.
US Steel (X) Q1 20 (USD): Adj. EPS view -0.80 (exp. -0.84), EBITDA 30mln.
Coca Cola (KO) does not expect to meet its FY20 guidance, although does not foresee any near-term interruptions to its concentrate or beverage-based production. Meanwhile, it had its PT lowered at Deutsche Bank to USD 53/shr from USD 64/shr, although the desk reiterated its long-term buy rating.
Ross Stores (ROST) announced it is to temporarilty close all of its stores throughout the US due to the coronavirus.
Dollar Tree (DLTR) announced it is hiring 25,000 associates (both full and part time) to help across its stores in the US.
Synaptics Inc. (SYNA) downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan
Colgate Palmolive (CL) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA
Accenture (CAN) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at MoffettNathansonMonster Beverage
submitted by WSBConsensus to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning August 3rd, 2020

Good Saturday morning to all of you here on smallstreetbets. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading month ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning August 3rd, 2020.

Earnings and fiscal debate could be catalysts for stocks in the week ahead - (Source)

The market could lose some of its exuberance in the week ahead as the calendar turns to August, and investors await Friday’s July employment report and keep their eyes on Washington.
The focus will also be squarely on politicians, as Congress struggles to find a middle ground on a new fiscal spending package and decide the fate of the $600 a week unemployment supplement that was set to expire July 31. Former vice president Joe Biden is also expected to name his running mate in the coming week.
The jobs data will be crucial, particularly since the number of people filing for unemployment benefits has been edging higher, instead of falling back, as expected. According to Refinitiv, about 1.36 million new jobs are expected, well below the 4.8 million added in June, and the unemployment rate is expected to fall to 10.7% from 11.1%.
Trading around the report could be volatile, since some economists expect more than 2 million jobs were added, and some even see flat or negative payrolls.
Stocks have done well for the month of July, with the S&P 500 finishing at 3,271, a gain of 5.5%. The Nasdaq has performed the best, rising 6.8% for the month to 10,745, after a 3.7% gain for the past week.
“August has traditionally been a challenging month for investors,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA. The market is entering what historically has been the worst two months for stocks.
According to Stovall, the S&P 500 has been higher in August 53% of the time, and its average move is a gain of just 0.01%, going back to World War II. September is worse, down 0.51% on average, and up just 48% of the time.
In presidential election years, however the odds for August gains are better, as it rose 63% of the time and 73%, when the incumbent is up for re-election.
There are also about 120 S&P 500 companies reporting earnings, but the big earnings show for markets was this past week when four of the five biggest tech giants all reported Thursday afternoon. Three of those stocks — Apple, Amazon and Facebook — surged, helping Nasdaq outperform Friday with a more than 1.5% gain.

Earnings scorecard

“We’re only a month into the reporting period, and things are going to become less and less important from an earnings perspective,” said Stovall. “I think investors are sort of disappointed in that the bar was set so low for second quarter earnings that expectations were that we were going to see a lot of companies beat, which we have. But we were also going to see a gradual uplift of earnings expectations for forward quarters. We’re not seeing that.”
Eighty-two percent of the companies reporting so far have beaten estimates, well above the average 65%, according to Refinitiv. The earnings decline is now looking closer to 33% from an initial 40%, and tech, which has been leading the market is one of the best performers. Profits for the sector now look to be up 1.4%, according to I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv.
Because the tech names have contributed so much to market gains, their earnings were an important test for the market, and they didn’t disappoint. But they didn’t manage to pull up the whole market very far on Friday.
Among the names reporting in the coming week are a diverse group, including Disney, ViacomCBS, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Berkshire Hathaway, AIG, Clorox, and Wayfair, to name a few.

Politics now in play

“The earnings story is over. My call had been once we had gotten through the earnings season, we would be more vulnerable to a sustainable pullback,” said Barry Knapp, Ironside Macroeconomics managing partner and director of research. “Obviously, it’s volatility season, but it’s also an election year. ... We’re more vulnerable to that next week and earnings won’t hold us up.”
Knapp said if President Donald Trump and Republicans do not begin to perform better in the polls by Labor Day, the market is likely to focus on what a Democratic win would mean for taxes and regulation. That could be a negative for stocks.
“If he hasn’t made headway by then, it’s likely he’s done.That’s about the point when things become pretty set in stone. The market will presume that’s the case,” Knapp said.
The politics of the stimulus package could also reverberate through markets, until it looks like the Senate Republicans and House Democrats can find common ground.
The two sides look to be at a standoff, but an agreement is still expected in early August. The market is particularly watching to see what happens with the enhanced unemployment benefits. Republicans have proposed cutting it to $200, but Democrats support keeping it.

The economy

Cutting the size of the payments back might be good for the labor market and persuade more workers to return to work, some strategists say. However, there is also concern that the funding has helped stimulate the economy and keep the unemployed from defaulting on loans and payments. Consumer spending on goods in June was even higher than last year, and that was also seen as getting a lift from stimulus.
Besides the jobs report, there are other important data like ISM manufacturing on Monday. There are also monthly vehicle sales Monday, and ISM nonmanufacturing data Wednesday.
“I think the macro data is going to be fine next week,” said Knapp. “I’m not in the camp that thinks the payroll number is going to be negative.”
NatWest Markets economist Kevin Cummins is one of the economists who expects the jobs gains to be much smaller than the past two months. He expects the payrolls to come in at just 200,000. “You look at jobless claims, and you see a stalling out,” he said. “The Fed is right. There is significant downside risk to the economy.”

A trade to watch

Treasury yields, in the 2-year to 7-year range, fell to new lows in the past week. The 10-year yield, not yet at a record low, was also falling and was at 0.53% Friday. At the same time, the dollar was down more than 1% on the week and 4% for the month.
Gold was a beneficiary of the lower interest rates, weaker dollar trade, rising about 5% for the week and 10% for the month.
Strategist say investors are reacting to super-low interest rates, concerns about the economy, and the possibility that huge government spending will send inflation higher.
Investors are also jumping into inflation-protected bonds. According to Refinitiv’s Lipper, inflation-protected bond funds took in $271 million of net new money for the fund-flows week ended July 29, the sixth week of gains. About $1 billion went into the SPDR Gold Shares ETF, (GLD) in the last week, Lipper said.
During this time period, the Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities funds recorded their two best weekly net inflows ever with increases of $1.9 billion and $1.5 billion, respectively, for the fund-flows weeks of June 24 and July 1.
Lipper said investors started to put money into TIPS funds in the middle of the second quarter, and the flows have been . net positive in 11 out of 13 weeks since the beginning of May. This its second-worst quarterly net outflows ever as oil prices slumped in the first quarter.
“I think this is going to be a much more inflationary decade. It will start out slowly. [Fed Chairman Jerome] Powell is right that more forces are putting downward pressure on inflation at present. But the market looks past that,” said Knapp. “The big story in 2021 will be the recovery of inflation. You’re already seeing it in import prices.”

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #3!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #4!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #5!)

August: Top NASDAQ & Russell 2000 Month of Election Years

August is amongst the worst months of the year. It is the worst DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 month over the last 32 years, 1988-2019 with average declines ranging from 0.1% by NASDAQ to 1.1% by DJIA.
Contributing to this poor performance since 1987; the second shortest bear market in history (45 days) caused by turmoil in Russia, the Asian currency crisis and the Long-Term Capital Management hedge fund debacle ending August 31, 1998 with the DJIA shedding 6.4% that day. DJIA dropped a record 1344.22 points for the month, off 15.1%—which is the second worst monthly percentage DJIA loss since 1950. Saddam Hussein triggered a 10.0% slide in August 1990. The best DJIA gains occurred in 1982 (11.5%) and 1984 (9.8%) as bear markets ended. Sizeable losses in 2010, 2011, 2013 and 2015 of over 4% on DJIA have widened Augusts’ average decline.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
However, in election years since 1950, Augusts’ rankings improve: #6 DJIA, #5 S&P 500, #1 NASDAQ (since 1971), #1 Russell 1000 and #1 Russell 2000 (since 1979). This year, the market’s performance in August will likely depend heavily on how July closes and whether or not the rate of covid-19 infection continues to accelerate which could force some areas to roll back reopenings.

August’s First Trading Day Bearish Last 23 Years

From the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2020 (page 88), it is known that the first trading days of each month combined gain nearly as much as all other days combined. However, the first trading day of August does not contribute to this phenomenon ranking worst among other First Trading Days in the 2020 Almanac. In the past 23 years DJIA has risen just 30.4% (up 7, down 16) of the time on the first trading day of August. Average and median losses are on the mild side due to a few sizable advances. Over the past nine years, DJIA and S&P 500 have both declined nine times.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P 500 Stronger Underneath the Surface

Earlier today we posted a chart showing S&P 500 sector performance since the Nasdaq's recent peak on 7/20 when Technology stocks began what has now been a 10-day period of consolidation. Below we have updated these performance numbers to include today's moves. While not as many sectors remain in positive territory, the majority of sectors continue to outperform the S&P 500, while Technology drags the market lower. Along with Technology, Communication Services, and Consumer Discretionary are the only other sectors that have lagged the S&P 500, and their performance has been dragged down by the mega-cap tech-like stocks of Alphabet (GOOGL), Facebook (FB), and Amazon (AMZN).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Expanding on this theme of underlying strength in the index, the chart below shows the average performance of stocks in the S&P 500 grouped by sector. On an equal-weighted basis, the S&P 500 is actually up 1.3% since 7/20, and only two sectors (Technology and Materials) have seen negative average returns. On the upside, Real Estate (4.1%) has been the big winner followed by Consumer Discretionary (3.3%), and Consumer Staples (2.2%). The fact that Consumer Discretionary at the cap-weighted sector level is down over 1.4% while the average performance of stocks in the sector has been a gain of 3.3% illustrates what a mammoth impact AMZN has on that sector.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Breadth among S&P 500 stocks has also been overwhelmingly positive. For the S&P 500 as a whole, 59% of stocks in the index have had positive returns since the close on 7/20. Only two sectors (Technology and Materials) have seen fewer than half of their components post positive returns over that time, while Real Estate, Consumer Staples, and Utilities have seen roughly three-quarters of their components rally since 7/20.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Bullish Earnings Season So Far

At our Earnings Explorer tool available to clients on our website, we provide a real-time look at beat rates for both EPS and sales. Below is a snapshot from the website showing both the EPS and sales beat rates for US companies reporting earnings on a rolling 3-month basis. Currently, 64.61% of companies have exceeded consensus analyst EPS estimates over the last three months, while 63.75% of companies have beaten consensus sales estimates over the same time frame.
In looking at the chart, you can see a big spike in the EPS beat rate over the last few weeks. Since earnings season began on July 13th, nearly 80% of companies have posted stronger than expected EPS numbers. That's a huge beat rate and suggests that analysts were too bearish on Q2 numbers heading into July. The revenue beat rate held up much better than EPS beats throughout the first half of 2020, but it too is on the upswing this season.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
We also monitor how share prices are reacting to earnings reports. So far this earnings season, the average stock that has reported Q2 numbers has gained 1.31% on its earnings reaction day. That compares to a historical average one-day change of just 0.06% on earnings reaction days. As shown below, stocks that have beaten EPS estimates this season have gained 2.2% on earnings reaction days, while companies that have missed EPS estimates have fallen 1.89%. It's rare to see beats gaining more than misses decline, but that's what is happening this season.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

China Running Away YTD

Every Wednesday, we publish our Global Macro Dashboard which provides a high-level summary of market and economic data of some of the world's largest economies. Of the 23 stock markets tracked, just six including the US are positive year to date at the moment (in local currency). In the chart below we show the YTD performance of these six countries as well as the global median in 2020. As shown, even though it was actually the first to tip into the green YTD following the global sell-off in February and March very briefly back in early June, the US is up the least of this group with a YTD gain of 0.4%. China's stock market is up the most at +14%. Taiwan, South Korea, South Africa, and Malaysia are also outperforming the US but are up more modestly than China with the best of these, Taiwan, gaining 4.53% this year. Meanwhile, the median country in our Global Macro Dashboard remains down 6.2% YTD.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Given it is up the most on a year to date basis, China has also gained the largest share of global equity market cap in 2020. As shown in the table below, China has gained 1.7 percentage points of global market cap in 2020 and now takes up 10.14%. China now joins the US as the only other country with a double-digit share of total world market cap. Despite this, China has actually lost share since the bear market lows on 3/23. Meanwhile, the US, Germany, Canada, India, South Korea, and Australia have all gained a significant share since 3/23.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Do the Top 5 Stocks Pose a Risk to the Market?

Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Facebook. These five stocks have helped spawn a number of acronyms as they try to capture the rise of mega-cap tech stocks that have led the market higher for much of the past decade. The average return for those five stocks so far this year has been a gain of more than 30%, while the broad S&P 500 Index is just marginally positive, at 0.4% through July 30.
While many other areas of the market have remained largely static, the total market value of these stocks has dramatically increased, making them an increasingly large piece of market cap-weighted indexes such as the S&P 500. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the combined weight of the top five stocks in the S&P 500 has increased to its highest level ever, at nearly 22%. Only one of those five stocks (Microsoft) was a top five name in the index during the previous peak of March 2000.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
But does this pose a risk to the index? From a diversification standpoint, one could certainly argue it does. For instance, if any shared risks should come up, from regulation, for example, it could do outsized damage to cap-weighted indexes. However, we believe that the recent gains have been justified by the fundamentals, and we continue to favor both large caps over small caps, and growth-style stocks over value stocks. According to analysis from Credit Suisse, over the past 12 months, the top five stocks in the index have grown revenues at 11.2% vs. just 0.8% for the rest of the S&P 500. Further, the remainder of the S&P 500 has subtracted roughly $17 from S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS), while the top five stocks have added more than $12.
Finally, while these stocks have been the face of the recent “stay-at-home trend” and may be more insulated from broader economic weakness, they are far from the only stocks making money this year. On July 30, the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index hit a new all-time high and is now up more than 15% year-to-date.
“After a huge run, many of these top stocks may be due for a pause,” said LPL Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “However, looking out over the next 6 to 12 months, we believe that investors will continue to place a premium on companies that are able to organically grow sales, especially in a low-growth environment.”
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
  • $CLX
  • $BYND
  • $SQ
  • $MRNA
  • $ROKU
  • $FSLY
  • $TSN
  • $ATVI
  • $CHGG
  • $CVS
  • $W
  • $DIS
  • $MELI
  • $GPN
  • $SPCE
  • $TWLO
  • $CMS
  • $LVGO
  • $MCK
  • $AMRN
  • $ETSY
  • $PLUG
  • $NET
  • $BMY
  • $RACE
  • $TTWO
  • $MPC
  • $MPLX
  • $ZNGA
  • $DBX
  • $DDOG
  • $UBER
  • $WIX
  • $KOS
  • $TTD
  • $ENPH
  • $CRON
  • $BP
  • $TEVA
  • $PENN
  • $FVRR
  • $RNG
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST INCREASE IN EARNINGS EXPECTATIONS!)
(CLICK HERE FOR MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES FOR MONDAY, AUGUST 3RD, 2020!)
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 8.3.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Monday 8.3.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)

Tuesday 8.4.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)

Tuesday 8.4.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #3!)

Wednesday 8.5.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)

Wednesday 8.5.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #3!)
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #4!)

Thursday 8.6.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #3!)

Thursday 8.6.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #2!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK #3!)

Friday 8.7.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 8.7.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Clorox Co. $236.51

Clorox Co. (CLX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Monday, August 3, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.00 per share on revenue of $1.83 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.06 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 78% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 6.38% with revenue increasing by 12.48%. Short interest has increased by 9.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 22.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 33.0% above its 200 day moving average of $177.86. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, July 31, 2020 there was some notable buying of 2,147 contracts of the $250.00 call and 1,848 contracts of the $220.00 put expiring on Friday, August 7, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 7.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.6% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Beyond Meat, Inc. $125.90

Beyond Meat, Inc. (BYND) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, August 4, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.02 per share on revenue of $97.75 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.01 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 71% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 300.00% with revenue increasing by 45.35%. Short interest has decreased by 27.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 14.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 21.7% above its 200 day moving average of $103.45. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 23.1% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Square, Inc. $129.85

Square, Inc. (SQ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Wednesday, August 5, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.05 per share on revenue of $1.01 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.01) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 59% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 126.32% with revenue decreasing by 13.99%. Short interest has decreased by 20.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 85.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 71.3% above its 200 day moving average of $75.80. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, July 14, 2020 there was some notable buying of 9,381 contracts of the $97.50 call expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 9.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.1% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Moderna, Inc., $74.10

Moderna, Inc., (MRNA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Wednesday, August 5, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.36 per share on revenue of $19.83 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.34) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 66% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 12.20% with revenue increasing by 51.57%. Short interest has increased by 3.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 32.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 99.3% above its 200 day moving average of $37.17. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, July 24, 2020 there was some notable buying of 12,120 contracts of the $95.00 call expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 12.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.3% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Roku Inc $154.89

Roku Inc (ROKU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Wednesday, August 5, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.55 per share on revenue of $305.10 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.47) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 73% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 587.50% with revenue increasing by 21.99%. The stock has drifted higher by 23.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 23.0% above its 200 day moving average of $125.96. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, July 20, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,243 contracts of the $125.00 put expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 13.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 17.4% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Fastly, Inc. $96.49

Fastly, Inc. (FSLY) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Wednesday, August 5, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.01 per share on revenue of $60.42 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.01 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 82% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $70.00 million to $72.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 93.75% with revenue increasing by 30.86%. Short interest has increased by 186.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 229.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 186.0% above its 200 day moving average of $33.74. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 17.8% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Tyson Foods Inc. $61.45

Tyson Foods Inc. (TSN) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:35 AM ET on Monday, August 3, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.90 per share on revenue of $10.49 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.96 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 44% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 38.78% with revenue decreasing by 3.63%. Short interest has decreased by 38.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 5.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 14.3% below its 200 day moving average of $71.73. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, July 31, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,804 contracts of the $60.00 put expiring on Friday, October 16, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.9% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Activision Blizzard, Inc. $82.63

Activision Blizzard, Inc. (ATVI) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, August 4, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.63 per share on revenue of $1.70 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.73 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 81% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of approximately $0.64 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 57.50% with revenue increasing by 21.78%. Short interest has decreased by 32.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 11.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 29.7% above its 200 day moving average of $63.71. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, July 31, 2020 there was some notable buying of 8,749 contracts of the $85.00 call expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 8.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.9% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Chegg Inc. $80.97

Chegg Inc. (CHGG) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Monday, August 3, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.32 per share on revenue of $136.52 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.35 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 85% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $135.00 million to $137.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 100.00% with revenue increasing by 45.45%. Short interest has decreased by 21.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 51.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 74.9% above its 200 day moving average of $46.28. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, July 30, 2020 there was some notable buying of 2,335 contracts of the $90.00 call expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 13.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 13.6% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

CVS Health $62.94

CVS Health (CVS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Wednesday, August 5, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.91 per share on revenue of $64.49 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.96 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 75% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 1.06% with revenue increasing by 1.67%. Short interest has increased by 21.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 0.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.7% below its 200 day moving average of $66.72. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, July 28, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,028 contracts of the $85.00 call expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 5.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.6% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead smallstreetbets.
submitted by bigbear0083 to smallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Covid-19 update Friday 24th April

Good morning from the UK. It’s Friday 24th April. My marigold seeds have taken off and are starting to sprout secondary stage leaves (marigolds are good companion plants; they ward off various pests in a vegetable garden whilst they can also be good sacrificial plants should a slug manage to somehow breach our electric barrier). Meanwhile, the first of my wife’s radishes seeds is starting to emerge from the compost she put in a recycled milk carton tetrapak a few days ago; she’s very excited by this. Advance warning, today’s post is a bit food supply chain heavy. Happy Friday everybody.

Virus news in depth


AP Story from Tuesday 21st April: UN food agency chief: World on brink of `a hunger pandemic’ - The head of the U.N. food agency warned Tuesday that, as the world is dealing with the coronavirus pandemic, it is also “on the brink of a hunger pandemic” that could lead to “multiple famines of biblical proportions” within a few months if immediate action isn’t taken. World Food Program Executive Director David Beasley told the U.N. Security Council that even before COVID-19 became an issue, he was telling world leaders that “2020 would be facing the worst humanitarian crisis since World War II.” That’s because of wars in Syria, Yemen and elsewhere, locust swarms in Africa, frequent natural disasters and economic crises including in Lebanon, Congo, Sudan and Ethiopia, he said. Beasley said today 821 million people go to bed hungry every night all over the world, a further 135 million people are facing “crisis levels of hunger or worse,” and a new World Food Program analysis shows that as a result of COVID-19 an additional 130 million people “could be pushed to the brink of starvation by the end of 2020.” He said in the video briefing that WFP is providing food to nearly 100 million people on any given day, including “about 30 million people who literally depend on us to stay alive.”
(Cont’d) Beasley, who is recovering from COVID-19, said if those 30 million people can’t be reached, “our analysis shows that 300,000 people could starve to death every single day over a three-month period” — and that doesn’t include increased starvation due to the coronavirus. “In a worst-case scenario, we could be looking at famine in about three dozen countries, and in fact, in 10 of these countries we already have more than one million people per country who are on the verge of starvation,” he said. According to WFP, the 10 countries with the worst food crises in 2019 were Yemen, Congo, Afghanistan, Venezuela, Ethiopia, South Sudan, Syria, Sudan, Nigeria and Haiti. He pointed to a sharp drop in overseas remittances that will hurt countries such as Haiti, Nepal and Somalia; a loss of tourism revenue which, for example, will damage Ethiopia where it accounts for 47 percent of total exports; and the collapse of oil prices which will have a significant impact in lower-income countries like South Sudan where oil accounts for almost 99 percent of total exports.

The Gulf Times takes a different slant on the story: ‘Instead of coronavirus, the hunger will kill us’; COVID-19 brings fears of a global food crisis - In Kibera, the largest slum in Kenya’s capital Nairobi, people desperate to eat set off a stampede during a recent giveaway of flour and cooking oil, leaving scores injured and two people dead. The coronavirus has sometimes been called an equaliser because it has sickened both rich and poor, but when it comes to food, the commonality ends. It is poor people, including large segments of poorer nations, who are now going hungry and facing the prospect of starving. “The coronavirus has been anything but a great equaliser,” said Asha Jaffar, a volunteer who brought food to families in the Nairobi slum of Kibera after the fatal stampede. “It’s been the great revealer, pulling the curtain back on the class divide and exposing how deeply unequal this country is.” Already, 135 million people had been facing acute food shortages, but now with the pandemic, 130 million more could go hungry in 2020, said Arif Husain, chief economist at the World Food Program, a UN agency. Altogether, an estimated 265 million people could be pushed to the brink of starvation by year’s end. “We’ve never seen anything like this before,” Husain said. “It wasn’t a pretty picture to begin with, but this makes it truly unprecedented and uncharted territory.”
(Cont’d) There is no shortage of food globally, or mass starvation from the pandemic yet continues the Gulf Times article. But logistical problems in planting, harvesting and transporting food will leave poor countries exposed in the coming months, especially those reliant on imports, said Johan Swinnen, director general of the International Food Policy Research Institute in Washington. While the system of food distribution and retailing in rich nations is organised and automated, he said, systems in developing countries are “labour intensive,” making “these supply chains much more vulnerable to COVID-19 and social distancing regulations.” On a recent evening, hundreds of migrant workers, who have been stuck in New Delhi after a lockdown was imposed in March with little warning, sat under the shade of a bridge waiting for food to arrive. The Delhi government has set up soup kitchens, yet workers like Nihal Singh go hungry as the throngs at these centres have increased in recent days. “Instead of coronavirus, the hunger will kill us,” said Singh, who was hoping to eat his first meal in a day.

Coronavirus-driven CO2 shortage threatens US food, water and beer supply, officials say - The Guardian reports that there is an emerging shortage of carbon dioxide gas (CO2) according to a Washington state emergency planning document. The document, a Covid-19 situation report produced by the State Emergency Operations Center (SEOC), contains a warning from the state’s office of drinking water (ODW) about difficulties in obtaining CO2, which is essential for the process of water treatment. The document says that the ODW is “still responding to [that day’s] notification of a national shortage of CO2”. It continues: “Several [water plants] had received initial notification from their vendors that their supply would be restricted to 33% of normal.” It further warns: “So far utilities have been able to make the case that they are considered essential to critical infrastructure and have been returned to full supply. However, we want to ask if CISA [the US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency] can assess this through their contacts, if this is sustainable given the national shortage.”
(Cont’d) Asked to clarify the nature of this problem, ODW director Mike Means said in an email that his agency had first learned of potential problems when Seattle public utilities were “contacted by their vendor Airgas who supplied a copy of a Force Majeure notice”, warning them that their CO2 order would be reduced due to pandemic-related shortages. Force majeure is a contractual defense that allows parties to escape liability for contracts in the case of events – such as a pandemic – that could not be reasonably foreseen. In this case, Means wrote, “Airgas informed in their notice that they would only be able to do 80% of their normal service but subsequent discussions said to expect more like 33%”. At this point, he added, “we reached out to understand if this was a WA specific problem or national. We quickly understood it to be a national issue.”
(Cont’d) ODW had then contacted federal agencies such as CISA, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (Fema) and industry bodies such as the Association of State Drinking Water Authorities (ASDWA). The main reason for national shortages, according to the CEO of the Compressed Gas Association (CGA), Rich Gottwald, is a ramping down of ethanol production. “Back in the summertime, the [Trump] administration exempted some gasoline manufacturers from using ethanol. Then we had Russia and Saudi Arabia flooding the market with cheap gasoline. All of that led to an oversupply of ethanol,” Gottwald said. “As ethanol manufacturers were ramping down because there wasn’t a market for their product, along comes Covid-19, which meant people weren’t driving anywhere”, he added. This led to plant closures, including among the 50 specialized plants that collect CO2 for the food and beverage market. Gottwald’s association, along with a number of associations representing food and beverage industries, which together use 77% of food-grade CO2, issued a joint warning to the federal government about the shortage. In an open letter to the vice-president, Mike Pence, the coalition warns: “Preliminary data show that production of CO2 has decreased by approximately 20%, and experts predict that CO2 production may be reduced by 50% by mid-April.” It continues: “A shortage in CO2 would impact the US availability of fresh food, preserved food and beverages, including beer production.”

The 'land army' needed to keep the UK's food supply chain going as thousands of tonnes of food risks going to waste - ITV has done a piece on the UK farming supply chain. Farmers are desperate for help. Without their usual influx of migrant workers from the EU, thousands of tonnes of food risk going to waste in fields up and down the country, just as the summer crops come into season. Every year our farming industry needs 90,000 seasonal workers. Like Robyn, many have put themselves forward - but in no way near the numbers needed. Others are finding the application process hard to navigate. Mark Thorogood, whose family have run the Essex farm for three generations, says it’s a perilous time for the food supply chain. "If we can't get the labour – it doesn’t get picked. That’s the crux of it", he said. Meanwhile, the charity The Food Foundation claims more than one and a half million Britons are going without food for at least a day because of the pandemic and three million have experienced hunger since the lockdown. On top of all that - the reality that nearly 50% of our food comes from abroad. With the numbers of ships crossing the Channel reduced and port workers hit by the virus, this is now under threat too. So could this crisis see a permanent change in how we feed our nation? The country's leading voice on food security, Professor Tim Lang gave us a grave warning: "The entire world food system is being disrupted. More disruptions are coming. Plantings not happening, food being wasted. "Britain only produces about 50% of its food - the country that can only half feed itself has got to wake up". (Personal note: this is why I’m putting effort into growing veg)

Virus news in brief


Sources: The Guardian, CNN or (to get an alternative spin) Radio New Zealand









Supply chain news in depth


Hidden threat: Japan only has a 2-week stockpile of LNG (Liquid Natural Gas) - If supplies stop, it will cause major power supply problems in the country says Nikkei’s Asian review which has an article highlighting the continuing energy supply chain vulnerability in Japan ever since the Fukushima nuclear disaster. It takes about one month to ship LNG from the Middle East to Japan explains the article but if the coronavirus outbreak prevents ships from docking in Japan it could have a big impact on the country's power supply. The physical properties of LNG mean it is poorly suited for long-term storage hence the country only holding a two-week stockpile. Despite this, the country depends on the fuel for 40% of its electric power generation needs, and all of the LNG it uses is imported from the Middle East and Southeast Asia. Tokyo Bay, which stretches across the prefectures of Chiba, Tokyo and Kanagawa, is Japan's most important LNG power generation hub. JERA operates many of the power plants there, all of which run on LNG. Accounting for about 30% of Japan's total LNG power generation, these plants produce 26 million kilowatts of electricity. If, for instance, the coronavirus was to force these plants to stop, the Greater Tokyo area would immediately lose its power supply (Personal note: that’s a population of approx 38.5m people).
(Cont’d) Today, LNG is a pillar of Japan's electricity. Before the March 11, 2011, earthquake and tsunami in Japan, LNG made up 28% of the country's power generation. That increased to 40% in fiscal 2017 as the nation's nuclear power plants went off grid, one after the other, following the Fukushima nuclear crisis. While some of Japan's nuclear plants have come back online, based on the strictest standards in the world, only three of the 10 electric power companies have been able to do so. Moreover, the coronavirus is inching closer and closer to the nuclear plants. Recently, a contractor working at the Genkai Nuclear Power Plant in the southern prefecture of Saga tested positive for the virus and construction at the site was stopped temporarily. Japan has traditionally tried to maintain a diverse mixture of power sources -- including nuclear, LNG, fossil fuels and renewable energy -- due to its reliance on imports as an island nation. "It is highly unbalanced to depend close to half of our energy on LNG alone," an official at the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry concedes. With shipments arriving constantly, a few missed shipments will not immediately signal a crisis. But an extended cutoff will spell trouble for the country.
(Cont’d) Japan was already facing a power shortage this year, "so the timing is very bad," said a power industry source. The Sendai nuclear power plant in Kagoshima Prefecture was shut down last month because it failed to meet antiterrorism standards. The No. 3 reactor at the Ikata nuclear power plant in Ehime Prefecture is offline following a court injunction. The number of nuclear reactors in operation this year is expected to temporarily fall by half from nine, so Japan cannot rely heavily on nuclear power. Japan's energy self-sufficiency stands at about 10%, well below the 40% for food. The movement to shift away from carbon has led to a backlash against domestic coal-fired power plants, so dependence on LNG could rise further. One reason that Tokyo Electric is rushing to restart its Kashiwazaki-Kariwa nuclear plant in Niigata Prefecture is because "heavy concentration in LNG power in Tokyo Bay is a major risk to the stable supply of power," according to an official at the utility. The coronavirus pandemic is testing whether Japan's government and utilities can diversify energy sources to prepare against the risks that threaten supplies.

USA meat packing plant Covid-19 problems worse than originally thought - A rash of coronavirus outbreaks at dozens of meatpacking plants across the nation is far more extensive than previously thought, according to an exclusive review of cases by USA TODAY and the Midwest Center for Investigative Reporting. More than 150 of America’s largest meat processing plants operate in counties where the rate of coronavirus infection is already among the nation’s highest, based on the media outlets’ analysis of slaughterhouse locations and county-level COVID-19 infection rates. These facilities represent more than 1 in 3 of the nation’s biggest beef, pork and poultry processing plants. Rates of infection around these plants are higher than those of 75% of other U.S. counties, the analysis found.
(Cont’d) While experts say the industry has thus far maintained sufficient production despite infections in at least 2,200 workers at 48 plants, there are fears that the number of cases could continue to rise and that meatpacking plants will become the next disaster zones. "Initially our concern was long-term care facilities," said Gary Anthone, Nebraska's chief medical officer, in a Facebook Live video Sunday. “If there's one thing that might keep me up at night, it's the meat processing plants and the manufacturing plants." Factory workers, unions, and even managers say the federal government – including the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Occupational Safety and Health Administration – has done little more than issue non-enforceable guidance. On its website, for example, the CDC has released safety guidelines for critical workers and businesses, which primarily promote common-sense measures of sanitization and personal distancing. USA Today says that state health departments have also taken a backseat role in all but a few places. There’s more in the article here.

Supply chain news in brief









Good news


Meet the 12-year-old who rode 36 hours on Zwift alongside Geraint Thomas - The Tour De France winner and double Olympic gold medalist earlier this week did 3 12 hour cycling sessions to raise money for the UK’s NHS (National Health Service), eventually earning £350,000. Alongside him rode a 12 year old Mak Larkin who by the end of the 36 hours of cycling had managed to cycle 740km (460 miles). Proud mum Lynsey told Cycling Weekly: “Lockdown was really getting to Mak, being that he was so eager to race this season as it was his first year at national level road and mountain bike cross country. “He saw Geraint’s 36-hour challenge and told us he wanted to do some of it with him for something to do and to support the NHS. He then told us a few hours later that he wanted to do the full challenge and wanted to raise some money himself. At time of writing his fundraising page (also for the NHS) stands at £5,772 (approx €6,605 or $7,111 USD). Cycling weekly has more here.

A toddler has been able to hear for the first time after a groundbreaking remote switch-on of her cochlear implants - The BBC reports that audiologists in Southampton activated the devices for 18-month-old Margarida Cibrao-Roque via the internet as they are unable to see patients in person due to Covid-19 measures. Professor Helen Cullington said the procedure took "technical creativity". Margarida's father said it had "opened a big window" for his daughter. Margarida, who has been deaf since birth because she has Ushers Syndrome Type One, had received her cochlear implants in an earlier operation. Staff at the University of Southampton's Auditory Implant Service (USAIS) used specialist software and were able to monitor progress via videolink to the family's home in Camberley, Surrey. During the switch-on levels of electrical stimulation were gradually built up and Margarida's responses were constantly monitored. It is hoped her new cochlear implants will, over time, help her to hear and to communicate more easily. Margarida's mother, Joana Cibrao said the team were "just brilliant and made it happen" despite the lockdown restrictions. "The possibility of Margarida calling me mummy one day would mean the world," she said.

Donations


Several asked if they can send me $/£/€ via Patreon (in some cases because I've saved them time or money, others for no reason at all). I don't need the cash (that's lovely though) but as you may have read above, food bank charities are getting really hit hard with all this panic buying. Please consider giving whatever you'd have given me to a foodbank charity instead:
UK: https://www.trusselltrust.org/
France: https://www.banquealimentaire.org/
Germany: https://www.tafel.de/
Netherlands: https://www.voedselbankennederland.nl/steun-ons/steun-voedselbank-donatie/
Italy: https://www.bancoalimentare.it/it/node/1
Spain: https://www.fesbal.org/
Australia: https://www.foodbank.org.au/
Canada: https://www.foodbankscanada.ca/
USA: https://www.feedingamerica.org/
Thanks in advance for any donations you give. If there's foodbank charities in your country and it's not listed above, please suggest it and I will include it going forward.
submitted by Fwoggie2 to supplychain [link] [comments]

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