Lowest Margin Rates. Best Brokerage Margin Account (2020)

Best trading platform for margin?

I’m looking to move a little bit of money onto a platform where I can try out the margin experience.
I have about 100k in my trading account + cash reserves, retirement, etc.
I’m thinking about moving 10k-20k in an acct with margin. Hoping to get 3-5x with the ability to sell puts. What are the recommendations?
submitted by wargamingaddict87 to options [link] [comments]

What has Trump actually done? I've done some research...

A little about myself: I have always been a right-leaning financially conservative liberal. Meaning I'm all for newer technologies. I want solar energy, electric cars, auto-driving technologies (Love Musk). I do care about our environment. I do believe LGBT relationships/marriage is awesome. I'm all for Black people having their fair style of policing as well. I hate Nazis, hate Communists, hate racism, sexism, abuse, etc. I hate hate. I love LOVE! I want our government to be LESS controlling and want less taxes. I do NOT believe we should be handing out welfare checks unless IF needed (you just lost a job, sure). If you are sitting on welfare for 10 years....that becomes a problem. I look at BOTH SIDES. I've signed up for newsletters/emails/facebook/twitter groups from both sides. However I've seen that the left has become a socialist groupthink mindset, for example omitting the word God in a few speeches....It's not a BIG deal but small unnoticed details may lead to big overhauls. The censorships of channels, the media attacking conservatives, people getting fired for just having a different political opinion...are you kidding me?? The media turning a blind eye to destruction yet talk about Coronavirus numbers and criminals that are resisting arrest get shot as the cop's fault...however we do need more police training. Cops are aggressive here (I do agree with my liberal friends on that). The double standard: letting people protest for BLM but when the Conservatives tried to protest to go back to work, at the beginning in March/April, they were at fault. Or how CA Gov Newsom stated "You're allowed to protest, but not allowed to have social gatherings"....isn't a protest a type of social gathering.
I don't like to be biased, but holy crap how much I've found what Trump has done for the past 3.5 years is insane!! My point is I look at both sides for politics. Anyways, I decided to do a full day's work with the help of some people to compile a list:
  1. Trump recently signed 3 bills to benefit Native people. One gives compensation to the Spokane tribe for loss of their lands in the mid-1900s, one funds Native language programs, and the third gives federal recognition to the Little Shell Tribe of Chippewa Indians in Montana.
  2. Trump finalized the creation of Space Force as our 6th Military branch.
  3. Trump signed a law to make cruelty to animals a federal felony so that animal abusers face tougher consequences.
  4. Violent crime has fallen every year he’s been in office after rising during the 2 years before he was elected.
  5. Trump signed a bill making CBD and Hemp legal.
  6. Trump’s EPA gave $100 million to fix the water infrastructure problem in Flint, Michigan.
  7. Under Trump’s leadership, in 2018 the U.S. surpassed Russia and Saudi Arabia to become the world’s largest producer of crude oil.
  8. Trump signed a law ending the gag orders on Pharmacists that prevented them from sharing money-saving information.
  9. Trump signed the “Allow States and Victims to Fight Online Sex Trafficking Act” (FOSTA), which includes the “Stop Enabling Sex Traffickers Act” (SESTA) which both give law enforcement and victims new tools to fight sex trafficking.
  10. Trump signed a bill to require airports to provide spaces for breastfeeding Moms.
  11. The 25% lowest-paid Americans enjoyed a 4.5% income boost in November 2019, which outpaces a 2.9% gain in earnings for the country's highest-paid workers.
  12. Low-wage workers are benefiting from higher minimum wages and from corporations that are increasing entry-level pay.
  13. Trump signed the biggest wilderness protection & conservation bill in a decade and designated 375,000 acres as protected land.
  14. Trump signed the Save our Seas Act which funds $10 million per year to clean tons of plastic & garbage from the ocean.
  15. He signed a bill this year allowing some drug imports from Canada so that prescription prices would go down.
  16. Trump signed an executive order this year that forces all healthcare providers to disclose the cost of their services so that Americans can comparison shop and know how much less providers charge insurance companies.
  17. When signing that bill he said no American should be blindsided by bills for medical services they never agreed to in advance.
  18. Hospitals will now be required to post their standard charges for services, which include the discounted price a hospital is willing to accept.
  19. In the eight years prior to President Trump’s inauguration, prescription drug prices increased by an average of 3.6% per year. Under Trump, drug prices have seen year-over-year declines in nine of the last ten months, with a 1.1% drop as of the most recent month.
  20. He created a White House VA Hotline to help veterans and principally staffed it with veterans and direct family members of veterans.
  21. VA employees are being held accountable for poor performance, with more than 4,000 VA employees removed, demoted, and suspended so far.
  22. Issued an executive order requiring the Secretaries of Defense, Homeland Security, and Veterans Affairs to submit a joint plan to provide veterans access to access to mental health treatment as they transition to civilian life.
  23. Because of a bill signed and championed by Trump, In 2020, most federal employees will see their pay increase by an average of 3.1% — the largest raise in more than 10 years.
  24. Trump signed into a law up to 12 weeks of paid parental leave for millions of federal workers.
  25. Trump administration will provide HIV prevention drugs for free to 200,000 uninsured patients per year for 11 years.
  26. All-time record sales during the 2019 holidays.
  27. Trump signed an order allowing small businesses to group together when buying insurance to get a better price
  28. President Trump signed the Preventing Maternal Deaths Act that provides funding for states to develop maternal mortality reviews to better understand maternal complications and identify solutions & largely focuses on reducing the higher mortality rates for Black Americans.
  29. In 2018, President Trump signed the groundbreaking First Step Act, a criminal justice bill which enacted reforms that make our justice system fairer and help former inmates successfully return to society.
  30. The First Step Act’s reforms addressed inequities in sentencing laws that disproportionately harmed Black Americans and reformed mandatory minimums that created unfair outcomes.
  31. The First Step Act expanded judicial discretion in sentencing of non-violent crimes.
  32. Over 90% of those benefitting from the retroactive sentencing reductions in the First Step Act are Black Americans.
  33. The First Step Act provides rehabilitative programs to inmates, helping them successfully rejoin society and not return to crime.
  34. Trump increased funding for Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs) by more than 14%.
  35. Trump signed legislation forgiving Hurricane Katrina debt that threatened HBCUs.
  36. New single-family home sales are up 31.6% in October 2019 compared to just one year ago.
  37. Made HBCUs a priority by creating the position of executive director of the White House Initiative on HBCUs.
  38. Trump received the Bipartisan Justice Award at a historically black college for his criminal justice reform accomplishments.
  39. The poverty rate fell to a 17-year low of 11.8% under the Trump administration as a result of a jobs-rich environment.
  40. Poverty rates for African-Americans and Hispanic-Americans have reached their lowest levels since the U.S. began collecting such data.
  41. President Trump signed a bill that creates five national monuments, expands several national parks, adds 1.3 million acres of wilderness, and permanently reauthorizes the Land and Water Conservation Fund.
  42. Trump’s USDA committed $124 Million to rebuild rural water infrastructure.
  43. Consumer confidence & small business confidence is at an all-time high.
  44. More than 7 million jobs created since election.
  45. More Americans are now employed than ever recorded before in our history.
  46. More than 400,000 manufacturing jobs created since his election.
  47. Trump appointed 5 openly gay ambassadors.
  48. Trump ordered Ric Grenell, his openly gay ambassador to Germany, to lead a global initiative to decriminalize homosexuality across the globe.
  49. Through Trump’s Anti-Trafficking Coordination Team (ACTeam) initiative, Federal law enforcement more than doubled convictions of human traffickers and increased the number of defendants charged by 75% in ACTeam districts.
  50. In 2018, the Department of Justice (DOJ) dismantled an organization that was the internet’s leading source of prostitution-related advertisements resulting in sex trafficking.
  51. Trump’s OMB published new anti-trafficking guidance for government procurement officials to more effectively combat human trafficking.
  52. Trump’s Immigration and Customs Enforcement’s Homeland Security Investigations arrested 1,588 criminals associated with Human Trafficking.
  53. Trump’s Department of Health and Human Services provided funding to support the National Human Trafficking Hotline to identify perpetrators and give victims the help they need.
  54. The hotline identified 16,862 potential human trafficking cases.
  55. Trump’s DOJ provided grants to organizations that support human trafficking victims – serving nearly 9,000 cases from July 1, 2017, to June 30, 2018.
  56. The Department of Homeland Security has hired more victim assistance specialists, helping victims get resources and support.
  57. President Trump has called on Congress to pass school choice legislation so that no child is trapped in a failing school because of his or her zip code.
  58. The President signed funding legislation in September 2018 that increased funding for school choice by $42 million.
  59. The tax cuts signed into law by President Trump promote school choice by allowing families to use 529 college savings plans for elementary and secondary education.
  60. Under his leadership ISIS has lost most of their territory and been largely dismantled.
  61. ISIS leader Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi was killed.
  62. Signed the first Perkins CTE reauthorization since 2006, authorizing more than $1 billion for states each year to fund vocational and career education programs.
  63. Executive order expanding apprenticeship opportunities for students and workers.
  64. Trump issued an Executive Order prohibiting the U.S. government from discriminating against Christians or punishing expressions of faith.
  65. Signed an executive order that allows the government to withhold money from college campuses deemed to be anti-Semitic and who fail to combat anti-Semitism.
  66. President Trump ordered a halt to U.S. tax money going to international organizations that fund or perform abortions.
  67. Trump imposed sanctions on the socialists in Venezuela who have killed their citizens.
  68. Finalized new trade agreement with South Korea.
  69. Made a deal with the European Union to increase U.S. energy exports to Europe.
  70. Withdrew the U.S. from the job killing TPP deal.
  71. Secured $250 billion in new trade and investment deals in China and $12 billion in Vietnam.
  72. Okay’ d up to $12 billion in aid for farmers affected by unfair trade retaliation.
  73. Has had over a dozen US hostages freed, including those Obama could not get freed.
  74. Trump signed the Music Modernization Act, the biggest change to copyright law in decades.
  75. Trump secured Billions that will fund the building of a wall at our southern border.
  76. The Trump Administration is promoting second chance hiring to give former inmates the opportunity to live crime-free lives and find meaningful employment.
  77. Trump’s DOJ and the Board Of Prisons launched a new “Ready to Work Initiative” to help connect employers directly with former prisoners.
  78. President Trump’s historic tax cut legislation included new Opportunity Zone Incentives to promote investment in low-income communities across the country.
  79. 8,764 communities across the country have been designated as Opportunity Zones.
  80. Opportunity Zones are expected to spur $100 billion in long-term private capital investment in economically distressed communities across the country.
  81. Trump directed the Education Secretary to end Common Core.
  82. Trump signed the 9/11 Victims Compensation Fund into law.
  83. Trump signed measure funding prevention programs for Veteran suicide.
  84. Companies have brought back over a TRILLION dollars from overseas because of the TCJA bill that Trump signed.
  85. Manufacturing jobs are growing at the fastest rate in more than 30 years.
  86. Stock Market has reached record highs.
  87. Median household income has hit highest level ever recorded.
  88. African-American unemployment is at an all-time low.(was until Covid bullshit)
  89. Hispanic-American unemployment is at an all-time low.
  90. Asian-American unemployment is at an all-time low.
  91. Women’s unemployment rate is at a 65-year low.
  92. Youth unemployment is at a 50-year low.
  93. We have the lowest unemployment rate ever recorded.
  94. The Pledge to America’s Workers has resulted in employers committing to train more than 4 million Americans.
  95. 95 percent of U.S. manufacturers are optimistic about the future— the highest ever.
  96. As a result of the Republican tax bill, small businesses will have the lowest top marginal tax rate in more than 80 years.
  97. Record number of regulations eliminated that hurt small businesses.
  98. Signed welfare reform requiring able-bodied adults who don’t have children to work or look for work if they’re on welfare.
  99. Under Trump, the FDA approved more affordable generic drugs than ever before in history.
  100. Reformed Medicare program to stop hospitals from overcharging low-income seniors on their drugs—saving seniors 100’s of millions of $$$ this year alone.
  101. Signed Right-To-Try legislation allowing terminally ill patients to try experimental treatment that wasn’t allowed before.
  102. Secured $6 billion in new funding to fight the opioid epidemic.
  103. Signed VA Choice Act and VA Accountability Act, expanded VA telehealth services, walk-in-clinics, and same-day urgent primary and mental health care.
  104. U.S. oil production recently reached all-time high so we are less dependent on oil from the Middle East.
  105. The U.S. is a net natural gas exporter for the first time since 1957.
  106. NATO allies increased their defense spending because of his pressure campaign.
  107. Withdrew the United States from the job-killing Paris Climate Accord in 2017 and that same year the U.S. still led the world by having the largest reduction in Carbon emissions.
  108. Has his circuit court judge nominees being confirmed faster than any other new administration.
  109. Had his Supreme Court Justice’s Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh confirmed.
  110. Moved U.S. Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem.
  111. Agreed to a new trade deal with Mexico & Canada that will increase jobs here and $$$ coming in.
  112. Reached a breakthrough agreement with the E.U. to increase U.S. exports.
  113. Imposed tariffs on China in response to China’s forced technology transfer, intellectual property theft, and their chronically abusive trade practices, has agreed to a Part One trade deal with China.
  114. Signed legislation to improve the National Suicide Hotline.
  115. Signed the most comprehensive childhood cancer legislation ever into law, which will advance childhood cancer research and improve treatments.
  116. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act signed into law by Trump doubled the maximum amount of the child tax credit available to parents and lifted the income limits so more people could claim it.
  117. It also created a new tax credit for other dependents.
  118. In 2018, President Trump signed into law a $2.4 billion funding increase for the Child Care and Development Fund, providing a total of $8.1 billion to States to fund child care for low-income families.
  119. The Child and Dependent Care Tax Credit (CDCTC) signed into law by Trump provides a tax credit equal to 20-35% of child care expenses, $3,000 per child & $6,000 per family + Flexible Spending Accounts (FSAs) allow you to set aside up to $5,000 in pre-tax $ to use for child care.
  120. In 2019 President Donald Trump signed the Autism Collaboration, Accountability, Research, Education and Support Act (CARES) into law which allocates $1.8 billion in funding over the next five years to help people with autism spectrum disorder and to help their families.
  121. In 2019 President Trump signed into law two funding packages providing nearly $19 million in new funding for Lupus specific research and education programs, as well an additional $41.7 billion in funding for the National Institutes of Health (NIH), the most Lupus funding EVER.
  122. Another upcoming accomplishment to add: In the next week or two Trump will be signing the first major anti-robocall law in decades called the TRACED Act (Telephone Robocall Abuse Criminal Enforcement and Deterrence.) Once it’s the law, the TRACED Act will extend the period of time the FCC has to catch & punish those who intentionally break telemarketing restrictions. The bill also requires voice service providers to develop a framework to verify calls are legitimate before they reach your phone.
  123. Israel-UAE peace. More Muslim countries (Countries such as Oman, Morocco, Sudan, Lebanon) said they may follow. Last time Israel and a Muslim country normalized ties was 26 years ago.
  124. US stock market continually hits all-time record highs.
Note: I would like to also add that this list will obviously be very similar to other lists if not the same, since these are facts and not really opinions.
I may have missed some stuff or duplicated a few things. Sorry about that. Please let me know if you have anything to add. Thanks for reading!
submitted by Jules0328 to trump [link] [comments]

What has Trump actually done? I've done some research... (Requested Re-post)

A little about myself: I have always been a right-leaning financially conservative liberal. Meaning I'm all for newer technologies. I want solar energy, electric cars, auto-driving technologies (Love Musk). I do care about our environment. I do believe LGBT relationships/marriage is awesome. I'm all for Black people having their fair style of policing as well. I hate Nazis, hate Communists, hate racism, sexism, abuse, etc. I hate hate. I love LOVE! I want our government to be LESS controlling and want less taxes. I do NOT believe we should be handing out welfare checks unless IF needed (you just lost a job, sure). If you are sitting on welfare for 10 years....that becomes a problem. I look at BOTH SIDES. I've signed up for newsletters/emails/facebook/twitter groups from both sides. However I've seen that the left has become a socialist groupthink mindset, for example omitting the word God in a few speeches....It's not a BIG deal but small unnoticed details may lead to big overhauls. The censorships of channels, the media attacking conservatives, people getting fired for just having a different political opinion...are you kidding me?? The media turning a blind eye to destruction yet talk about Coronavirus numbers and criminals that are resisting arrest get shot as the cop's fault...however we do need more police training. Cops are aggressive here (I do agree with my liberal friends on that). The double standard: letting people protest for BLM but when the Conservatives tried to protest to go back to work, at the beginning in March/April, they were at fault. Or how CA Gov Newsom stated "You're allowed to protest, but not allowed to have social gatherings"....isn't a protest a type of social gathering.
I don't like to be biased, but holy crap how much I've found what Trump has done for the past 3.5 years is insane!! My point is I look at both sides for politics. Anyways, I decided to do a full day's work with the help of some people to compile a list:
  1. Trump recently signed 3 bills to benefit Native people. One gives compensation to the Spokane tribe for loss of their lands in the mid-1900s, one funds Native language programs, and the third gives federal recognition to the Little Shell Tribe of Chippewa Indians in Montana.
  2. Trump finalized the creation of Space Force as our 6th Military branch.
  3. Trump signed a law to make cruelty to animals a federal felony so that animal abusers face tougher consequences.
  4. Violent crime has fallen every year he’s been in office after rising during the 2 years before he was elected.
  5. Trump signed a bill making CBD and Hemp legal.
  6. Trump’s EPA gave $100 million to fix the water infrastructure problem in Flint, Michigan.
  7. Under Trump’s leadership, in 2018 the U.S. surpassed Russia and Saudi Arabia to become the world’s largest producer of crude oil.
  8. Trump signed a law ending the gag orders on Pharmacists that prevented them from sharing money-saving information.
  9. Trump signed the “Allow States and Victims to Fight Online Sex Trafficking Act” (FOSTA), which includes the “Stop Enabling Sex Traffickers Act” (SESTA) which both give law enforcement and victims new tools to fight sex trafficking.
  10. Trump signed a bill to require airports to provide spaces for breastfeeding Moms.
  11. The 25% lowest-paid Americans enjoyed a 4.5% income boost in November 2019, which outpaces a 2.9% gain in earnings for the country's highest-paid workers.
  12. Low-wage workers are benefiting from higher minimum wages and from corporations that are increasing entry-level pay.
  13. Trump signed the biggest wilderness protection & conservation bill in a decade and designated 375,000 acres as protected land.
  14. Trump signed the Save our Seas Act which funds $10 million per year to clean tons of plastic & garbage from the ocean.
  15. He signed a bill this year allowing some drug imports from Canada so that prescription prices would go down.
  16. Trump signed an executive order this year that forces all healthcare providers to disclose the cost of their services so that Americans can comparison shop and know how much less providers charge insurance companies.
  17. When signing that bill he said no American should be blindsided by bills for medical services they never agreed to in advance.
  18. Hospitals will now be required to post their standard charges for services, which include the discounted price a hospital is willing to accept.
  19. In the eight years prior to President Trump’s inauguration, prescription drug prices increased by an average of 3.6% per year. Under Trump, drug prices have seen year-over-year declines in nine of the last ten months, with a 1.1% drop as of the most recent month.
  20. He created a White House VA Hotline to help veterans and principally staffed it with veterans and direct family members of veterans.
  21. VA employees are being held accountable for poor performance, with more than 4,000 VA employees removed, demoted, and suspended so far.
  22. Issued an executive order requiring the Secretaries of Defense, Homeland Security, and Veterans Affairs to submit a joint plan to provide veterans access to access to mental health treatment as they transition to civilian life.
  23. Because of a bill signed and championed by Trump, In 2020, most federal employees will see their pay increase by an average of 3.1% — the largest raise in more than 10 years.
  24. Trump signed into a law up to 12 weeks of paid parental leave for millions of federal workers.
  25. Trump administration will provide HIV prevention drugs for free to 200,000 uninsured patients per year for 11 years.
  26. All-time record sales during the 2019 holidays.
  27. Trump signed an order allowing small businesses to group together when buying insurance to get a better price
  28. President Trump signed the Preventing Maternal Deaths Act that provides funding for states to develop maternal mortality reviews to better understand maternal complications and identify solutions & largely focuses on reducing the higher mortality rates for Black Americans.
  29. In 2018, President Trump signed the groundbreaking First Step Act, a criminal justice bill which enacted reforms that make our justice system fairer and help former inmates successfully return to society.
  30. The First Step Act’s reforms addressed inequities in sentencing laws that disproportionately harmed Black Americans and reformed mandatory minimums that created unfair outcomes.
  31. The First Step Act expanded judicial discretion in sentencing of non-violent crimes.
  32. Over 90% of those benefitting from the retroactive sentencing reductions in the First Step Act are Black Americans.
  33. The First Step Act provides rehabilitative programs to inmates, helping them successfully rejoin society and not return to crime.
  34. Trump increased funding for Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs) by more than 14%.
  35. Trump signed legislation forgiving Hurricane Katrina debt that threatened HBCUs.
  36. New single-family home sales are up 31.6% in October 2019 compared to just one year ago.
  37. Made HBCUs a priority by creating the position of executive director of the White House Initiative on HBCUs.
  38. Trump received the Bipartisan Justice Award at a historically black college for his criminal justice reform accomplishments.
  39. The poverty rate fell to a 17-year low of 11.8% under the Trump administration as a result of a jobs-rich environment.
  40. Poverty rates for African-Americans and Hispanic-Americans have reached their lowest levels since the U.S. began collecting such data.
  41. President Trump signed a bill that creates five national monuments, expands several national parks, adds 1.3 million acres of wilderness, and permanently reauthorizes the Land and Water Conservation Fund.
  42. Trump’s USDA committed $124 Million to rebuild rural water infrastructure.
  43. Consumer confidence & small business confidence is at an all-time high.
  44. More than 7 million jobs created since election.
  45. More Americans are now employed than ever recorded before in our history.
  46. More than 400,000 manufacturing jobs created since his election.
  47. Trump appointed 5 openly gay ambassadors.
  48. Trump ordered Ric Grenell, his openly gay ambassador to Germany, to lead a global initiative to decriminalize homosexuality across the globe.
  49. Through Trump’s Anti-Trafficking Coordination Team (ACTeam) initiative, Federal law enforcement more than doubled convictions of human traffickers and increased the number of defendants charged by 75% in ACTeam districts.
  50. In 2018, the Department of Justice (DOJ) dismantled an organization that was the internet’s leading source of prostitution-related advertisements resulting in sex trafficking.
  51. Trump’s OMB published new anti-trafficking guidance for government procurement officials to more effectively combat human trafficking.
  52. Trump’s Immigration and Customs Enforcement’s Homeland Security Investigations arrested 1,588 criminals associated with Human Trafficking.
  53. Trump’s Department of Health and Human Services provided funding to support the National Human Trafficking Hotline to identify perpetrators and give victims the help they need.
  54. The hotline identified 16,862 potential human trafficking cases.
  55. Trump’s DOJ provided grants to organizations that support human trafficking victims – serving nearly 9,000 cases from July 1, 2017, to June 30, 2018.
  56. The Department of Homeland Security has hired more victim assistance specialists, helping victims get resources and support.
  57. President Trump has called on Congress to pass school choice legislation so that no child is trapped in a failing school because of his or her zip code.
  58. The President signed funding legislation in September 2018 that increased funding for school choice by $42 million.
  59. The tax cuts signed into law by President Trump promote school choice by allowing families to use 529 college savings plans for elementary and secondary education.
  60. Under his leadership ISIS has lost most of their territory and been largely dismantled.
  61. ISIS leader Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi was killed.
  62. Signed the first Perkins CTE reauthorization since 2006, authorizing more than $1 billion for states each year to fund vocational and career education programs.
  63. Executive order expanding apprenticeship opportunities for students and workers.
  64. Trump issued an Executive Order prohibiting the U.S. government from discriminating against Christians or punishing expressions of faith.
  65. Signed an executive order that allows the government to withhold money from college campuses deemed to be anti-Semitic and who fail to combat anti-Semitism.
  66. President Trump ordered a halt to U.S. tax money going to international organizations that fund or perform abortions.
  67. Trump imposed sanctions on the socialists in Venezuela who have killed their citizens.
  68. Finalized new trade agreement with South Korea.
  69. Made a deal with the European Union to increase U.S. energy exports to Europe.
  70. Withdrew the U.S. from the job killing TPP deal.
  71. Secured $250 billion in new trade and investment deals in China and $12 billion in Vietnam.
  72. Okay’ d up to $12 billion in aid for farmers affected by unfair trade retaliation.
  73. Has had over a dozen US hostages freed, including those Obama could not get freed.
  74. Trump signed the Music Modernization Act, the biggest change to copyright law in decades.
  75. Trump secured Billions that will fund the building of a wall at our southern border.
  76. The Trump Administration is promoting second chance hiring to give former inmates the opportunity to live crime-free lives and find meaningful employment.
  77. Trump’s DOJ and the Board Of Prisons launched a new “Ready to Work Initiative” to help connect employers directly with former prisoners.
  78. President Trump’s historic tax cut legislation included new Opportunity Zone Incentives to promote investment in low-income communities across the country.
  79. 8,764 communities across the country have been designated as Opportunity Zones.
  80. Opportunity Zones are expected to spur $100 billion in long-term private capital investment in economically distressed communities across the country.
  81. Trump directed the Education Secretary to end Common Core.
  82. Trump signed the 9/11 Victims Compensation Fund into law.
  83. Trump signed measure funding prevention programs for Veteran suicide.
  84. Companies have brought back over a TRILLION dollars from overseas because of the TCJA bill that Trump signed.
  85. Manufacturing jobs are growing at the fastest rate in more than 30 years.
  86. Stock Market has reached record highs.
  87. Median household income has hit highest level ever recorded.
  88. African-American unemployment is at an all-time low.(was until Covid bullshit)
  89. Hispanic-American unemployment is at an all-time low.
  90. Asian-American unemployment is at an all-time low.
  91. Women’s unemployment rate is at a 65-year low.
  92. Youth unemployment is at a 50-year low.
  93. We have the lowest unemployment rate ever recorded.
  94. The Pledge to America’s Workers has resulted in employers committing to train more than 4 million Americans.
  95. 95 percent of U.S. manufacturers are optimistic about the future— the highest ever.
  96. As a result of the Republican tax bill, small businesses will have the lowest top marginal tax rate in more than 80 years.
  97. Record number of regulations eliminated that hurt small businesses.
  98. Signed welfare reform requiring able-bodied adults who don’t have children to work or look for work if they’re on welfare.
  99. Under Trump, the FDA approved more affordable generic drugs than ever before in history.
  100. Reformed Medicare program to stop hospitals from overcharging low-income seniors on their drugs—saving seniors 100’s of millions of $$$ this year alone.
  101. Signed Right-To-Try legislation allowing terminally ill patients to try experimental treatment that wasn’t allowed before.
  102. Secured $6 billion in new funding to fight the opioid epidemic.
  103. Signed VA Choice Act and VA Accountability Act, expanded VA telehealth services, walk-in-clinics, and same-day urgent primary and mental health care.
  104. U.S. oil production recently reached all-time high so we are less dependent on oil from the Middle East.
  105. The U.S. is a net natural gas exporter for the first time since 1957.
  106. NATO allies increased their defense spending because of his pressure campaign.
  107. Withdrew the United States from the job-killing Paris Climate Accord in 2017 and that same year the U.S. still led the world by having the largest reduction in Carbon emissions.
  108. Has his circuit court judge nominees being confirmed faster than any other new administration.
  109. Had his Supreme Court Justice’s Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh confirmed.
  110. Moved U.S. Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem.
  111. Agreed to a new trade deal with Mexico & Canada that will increase jobs here and $$$ coming in.
  112. Reached a breakthrough agreement with the E.U. to increase U.S. exports.
  113. Imposed tariffs on China in response to China’s forced technology transfer, intellectual property theft, and their chronically abusive trade practices, has agreed to a Part One trade deal with China.
  114. Signed legislation to improve the National Suicide Hotline.
  115. Signed the most comprehensive childhood cancer legislation ever into law, which will advance childhood cancer research and improve treatments.
  116. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act signed into law by Trump doubled the maximum amount of the child tax credit available to parents and lifted the income limits so more people could claim it.
  117. It also created a new tax credit for other dependents.
  118. In 2018, President Trump signed into law a $2.4 billion funding increase for the Child Care and Development Fund, providing a total of $8.1 billion to States to fund child care for low-income families.
  119. The Child and Dependent Care Tax Credit (CDCTC) signed into law by Trump provides a tax credit equal to 20-35% of child care expenses, $3,000 per child & $6,000 per family + Flexible Spending Accounts (FSAs) allow you to set aside up to $5,000 in pre-tax $ to use for child care.
  120. In 2019 President Donald Trump signed the Autism Collaboration, Accountability, Research, Education and Support Act (CARES) into law which allocates $1.8 billion in funding over the next five years to help people with autism spectrum disorder and to help their families.
  121. In 2019 President Trump signed into law two funding packages providing nearly $19 million in new funding for Lupus specific research and education programs, as well an additional $41.7 billion in funding for the National Institutes of Health (NIH), the most Lupus funding EVER.
  122. Another upcoming accomplishment to add: In the next week or two Trump will be signing the first major anti-robocall law in decades called the TRACED Act (Telephone Robocall Abuse Criminal Enforcement and Deterrence.) Once it’s the law, the TRACED Act will extend the period of time the FCC has to catch & punish those who intentionally break telemarketing restrictions. The bill also requires voice service providers to develop a framework to verify calls are legitimate before they reach your phone.
  123. Israel-UAE peace. More Muslim countries (Countries such as Oman, Morocco, Sudan, Lebanon) said they may follow. Last time Israel and a Muslim country normalized ties was 26 years ago.
  124. US stock market continually hits all-time record highs.
Note: I would like to also add that this list will obviously be very similar to other lists if not the same, since these are facts and not really opinions.
I may have missed some stuff or duplicated a few things. Sorry about that. Please let me know if you have anything to add. Thanks for reading!
submitted by Jules0328 to donaldtrump [link] [comments]

A detailed guide and comparison between Sarwa and IBKR

As promised earlier I am sharing my experience investing with Sarwa and IBKR individually:
Account opening:
Opening an IBKR account with either Sarwa or directly through IBKR is extremely easy.
On Sarwa you would have to sign up and upload a few documents, basically your passport and DEWA bill. You’ll have to take a selfie holding your passport for verification. The whole process takes about a week and Sarwa then emails you your IBKR credentials. You can then log in to uour IBKR account. With Sarwa you can schedule a call, that’s how I started with them, someone will call you at your preferred time and explain everything. The person calling you will probably gonna be your advisor. During signing up you fill some questions to test your risk appetite. Accordingly a plan is assigned to you. In my case I opted for a higher risk level than the one allocated to me. I discussed that with my advisor and she approved it.
Different risk levels will have different target allocations of ETFS (For example, moderate growth is 38% American stocks, 31% developed markets, 16% bonds, 10% emerging markets & 5% real estate. The more risk you opt for the more American stocks you get and less bonds and vice versa.
Directly through IBKR would basically be a similar process, the documents needed would also be the passport and last DEWA bill. They auto pull your info from your passport scan, if some details could not be pulled out correctly a manual check from IB’s side will be done. Account opening took about 5 days. Now there is no risk assessment and you are on your own. You can buy whatever ETFs or stock you like.
No account opening fees either with Sarwa or IBKR.
Trading:
Obviously with Sarwa you cannot make trades yourself. Once you deposit the money in your IBKR account (A USA Citibank account) trades are made on the same day by Sarwa on your behalf. ETFs are purchased according to the target allocation of your profile. When fluctuations happen (example US stocks fall and bonds increase) and then you make further deposits they will rebalance your profile to maintain the target allocation.
With IBKR you can buy whatever you want whether individual stocks or ETFs, diversified or not. It’s all on your own responsibility.
Trading fees are completely waived with Sarwa. The trades they make on your behalf are free.
With IBKR there are reasonable fees for buying and selling. I recommend using tiered structure (not fixed, you can choose that from settings). Just to give you an idea. A single purchase of 5,000 USD worth of ETFs incurs about 0.63 USD in fees.
You cannot day trade with IBKR until your net liquidity value reaches 25K USD. You then have an unlimited number of daily trades. Less than 25K USD you will have to check your account to know how many trades you can perform daily/weekly. It’s very straightforward and clear.
Fees:
With Sarwa there is no account maintenance fees and you can start with 500 USD minimum balance. There is however an advisory fee. It is 0.85% annually charged on monthly basis for accounts worth 2500-50000K USD, 0.7% for accounts worth 50-100K USD and 0.5% for accounts above 100K USD value. No advisory fees for accounts worth 500-2500 USD.
Example: Your account is worth 10,000 USD. Annual fee is 85 USD and you will be charged monthly 7 USD.
With IBKR there is a 10USD monthly activity fee charged if your account is worth less than 100K USD. These fees are charged if you don’t trade. If you are actively trading commissions are deducted from those 10 dollars and you are probably won’t be paying these 10 USD. Example: Last month my trading commissions were 29 USD, I don’t pay the 10USD. If your monthly commissions are lets say 5 USD you pay 10USD – 5 USD = 5 USD and so on.
Monthly activity fees are waived for the first 3 months.
Monthly fees are only 3 USD for those aged less than 25 years old.
Funding:
Since both are IBKR accounts so funding is almost identical. You get detailed funding instructions on Sarwa’s website showing different UAE banks how-to(s).
On IBKR there are also funding instructions, but not as detailed as on Sarwa and not of course tailored according to UAE banks. It’s still easy.
My recommendation for funding is using Standard Chartered bank. They charge a fixed rate of 26.25 Dhs for every transfer. Corresponding bank fees are waived. Money reaches your USA IBKR account instantly and is immediately available for trading. Using 3rd party ways like Transferwise will incur higher charges according to my experience and will take more time. Moreover the funds will not be immediately available for trading (It matters if you want to seize the chance and buy in a dip). Also many transfers from Transferwise and Revolut are sometimes declined by IBKR. You can transfer from all other UAE banks but will have to pay corresponding bank fees of 25USD (amount less than 5K USD) 35 USD (between 5-25K) and 45 USD for amounts beyond 25K USD. Exchange rates differ from one bank to another and depends on your banking relationship. I would recommend you joiny SimplyFi facebook group and search there to learn about different bank fees. Citibank will also not charge a corresponding bank fees (Citi to Citi) and transfers are instant, but their rate is not competitive imho.
Margin:
Your account is a cash account with Sarwa. That means you can only buy ETFs equal to the amount of money your transfer. Pretty simple.
With IBKR you first apply for a cash account. I later requested an upgrade for a margin account and got an approval the next day. A margin account basically means you can take a loan from IBKR to buy stocks/ETFs. The loan amount depends on your profile and assessment of IBKR. They gave me a leverage ratio of 2 (Example my worth is 10 USD I can take a margin loan of equal amount of 10USD). The margin interest rate is one of the lowest in the world currently at 1.6% annually (charged daily).
Beware this is very risky and should only be attempted if you really know what you are doing. If your net liquidity value falls beyond a specific level IBKR will liquidate your positions. If you are interested in learning more about margin trading please private message me.
Support:
With Sarwa I get support via 3 methods, either messaging there whats app support number, my advisor’s whats app number or directly calling my advisor. It all works fine and they are all very responsive.
With IBKR, you can either send inbox messages (Like with banks) or much more conveniently live chat with them. They are just great and will help you with anything.
Finally:
I have so many other things in mind I want to talk (Like subscriptions for market data & trading stations whether web based/desktop app/mobile app) but I feel that would be too much and maybe doesn’t interest everyone. So I can gladly answer any specific questions.
As you can see I comparing features and general usage of both accounts and not investment and performance.
My Sarwa account is up 12% in 7 months but that is basically because I bought in the March dip. My personal IBKR account of similar value is up only 3%, but this is a different story as the allocation and target is different in both scenarios. Please note I cannot advise on what to buy or sell as I am not a financial expert. Just sharing my experience as an individual.
Cheers!
submitted by AmrRDXB to dubai [link] [comments]

PSA for IB investors: TSLA margin rate currently at ~77% due to their Collateral Value Pricing (CVP) policy

TLDR (for real): The CVP margin rate (currently 77.9%) is actually just based on a cap on the $/share you can borrow. Which means the borrowable $ amount will not go down with the price. The cap on $/share is based on how low the stock has been in the last year.
CVP = the lowest adjusted average price over 20 consecutive trading days in the past year
CVP Margin Rate = Close Price – CVP / Close Price
What's important to note here is the nature of this equation. It's very much different from the static margin percentage that is normally applied. With the static (currently 40%) margin rate, when the stock value drops, the amount you can borrow also drops, which obviously is what causes margin calls (or with IB, immediate liquidation :) ).
But with CVP, the percent is dependent on the current price. So the rate goes down when the stock goes down. It essentially acts as a CAP on the dollar amount you can borrow. That cap is the CVP which is about $490 per share right now. So you can only borrow $490 per share.
If the share price were to drop again, then eventually the CVP rate would drop below the standard rate, and then the actual dollar amount you can borrow against your shares would begin dropping with the share price (like usual).
So moral of the story is that the CVP margin rate won't actually cause any unexpected liquidation. It just caps the $/share you can borrow.
Got this response direct from IB:
IBKR continually reviews its margin requirements with the objective of striking a balance between reasonable leverage and prudent risk management.The leverage offered on TSLA shares has been reduced due to our Collateral Value Pricing (CVP) policy.
The collateral value pricing policy was put in place by IBKR's upper management team and has been completely vetted and reviewed on numerous occasions. As you note, the implementation of the collateral value price (CVP) calculation constrains the amount of margin loan value (MLV) that IBKR is willing to lend to an account based on a new collateral value price (CVP). The purpose of CVP is to protect IBKR from a scenario in which a stock has a run up in price, for which we then allow a client to purchase the stock at the top using the nominal margin rate and the stock subsequently returns to its prior lower price level in a rapid decline. If the descent is greater than the nominal margin interval the potential for loss to IBKR will increase. We seek to set CVP at a level which the stock can reasonably sustain.
The current CVP Margin rate for TSLA is approximately 77%.
Regards, Frank IBKR Risk Group
Update: They gave me some more information including TSLA's current CVP and how it's used to calculate the CVP margin rate.
IBKR's CVP Margin Policy has been in effect for a number of years. The CVP Margin Rate acts as a delta-based house charge. A net delta is calculated for your entire TSLA position which is multiplied by the CVP margin rate and stock value. This policy is not exclusive to TSLA. It applies to all equities.
Current CVP = 493.126 TSLA = 2,235.890 CVP Margin Rate = 77.9%
CVP Margin Rate = Close Price – CVP / Close Price.
(2,235.890 - 493.126) / 2,235.890 = 77.9%
Update 2: Finally!! They finally explained it!! Why couldn't they just say this to begin with!
The collateral value price is the lowest adjusted average price over 20 consecutive trading days in the past year.
submitted by benbenwilde to teslainvestorsclub [link] [comments]

Ranking all 32 NFL teams in tiers pre-2020 season


https://preview.redd.it/it6vqxvxzci51.jpg?width=900&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d5ba4c7f80a1439c4283f4b30e3514629fcf504b

Now that we have passed the opt-out deadline and are only about three weeks away from the Chiefs and Texans kicking off the 2020 NFL season, I wanted to put together my pre-season power rankings and put all 32 teams in separate tiers, to give you an idea of where I see them at this point.
When putting together this list, I considered the talent on the roster, coaching staff and what will be a more important factor coming into this season than it has been in previous – the continuity as a franchise, since the COVID situation has limited the amount of preparation and ability to build chemistry as a team. That will be especially tough for new head coaches and inexperienced teams.
With that being said, this is how I would group them:

Super Bowl contenders:

This group of four represents what I think are the four elite teams in the NFL. They all feature complete rosters, excellent coaching and continuity as a franchise. I think these are the franchises that will most likely square up against each other in the conference championship games on either side of the bracket.

1. Kansas City Chiefs
We have heard this many times over the course of the offseason – the reigning Super Bowl champs bring back 20 of 22 starters (actually 19 now) on offense and defense combined. They have the best player in the league, the most dangerous receiving corp, above-average O-line play and a still improving defense, that just added some much-needed speed at the second level, which will allow DC Steve Spagnuolo to even more versatile. So at this point I can not have anybody unseat them. I think Clyde Edwards-Helaire (LSU) will be a star in that offense, they get a couple of guys back that missed their playoff run and there are plenty of young, developing players on that roster. What general manager Brett Veach has done this offseason in terms of securing Patrick Mahomes for the next decade and still opening up cap room to also sign their best defensive player in Chris Jones is amazing to me. My only two concerns for Kansas City at this point are a lack of depth in the secondary and the fact they will have to go on the road when they face the four best teams on their schedule – Baltimore, Buffalo, Tampa Bay and New Orleans, which has me favoring the second team on my list for the number one seed in the AFC and which this year means having one more game in the playoffs on their road to another Super Bowl for Andy Reid’s troops.

2. Baltimore Ravens
Right behind the Chiefs, as the biggest competitor for the AFC is Baltimore. They were the best team in the regular season from this past year, but the Titans handed them only their third loss of the season in the Divisional Round at home. While they did lose what to me is a first-ballot Hall of Fame guard in Marshal Yanda, outside of that the Ravens to me have an even better roster. The reigning MVP Lamar Jackson is only entering his third season in the league, the Ravens just added a top prospect in J.K. Dobbins (Ohio State) to a backfield that set a league-record in rushing yards and some of these young receivers will continue to develop. On defense, they addressed the two areas that needed some help, when they brought in Calais Campbell to boost their pass-rush and two top-six linebackers on my board in the draft (Patrick Queen & Malik Harrison). They may not have as many superstar names as some other teams, but without a full offseason to prepare for it, that Greg Roman offense could be even tougher to stop if Marquise Brown becomes a more dependable deep threat (now fully healthy) and I love how multiple Wink Martindale is with his defense, combining the different pressure looks to go along with more versatile pieces up front and one of the elite secondaries in the game. You combine that with a rising young special teams coordinator in Chris Horton and a great motivator and in-game decision-maker in John Harbaugh – I just can’t find a lot of L’s on their schedule.

3. San Francisco 49ers
Obviously the Super Bowl hangover will be brought up a lot of times with the loser of that contest, but unlike a lot of these teams coming off the big game – yet similar to the actual winners in the Chiefs – John Lynch did a great job re-tooling for the few losses they did have and didn’t overspend on some of their talented guys. Kyle Shanahan to me is the best offensive play-caller and game-designer in football, with a diverse rushing attack and the type of personnel to match it, while Jimmy G, despite some issues, is coming off his first 16-game season in his career. Defensively, they are losing what I thought was their best player in DeForest Buckner, but they did replace him with a top ten prospect in Javon Kinlaw (South Carolina) and Fred Warner is an emerging superstar. Their Seattle-based scheme under Robert Salah may not be very complex, but the Niners have a ferocious pass-rush, fast-flowing linebackers and a great safety tandem to be very sound in their execution. The Deebo Samuel injury is definitely a concern for me and if he doesn’t get back a few weeks into the season, I might drop San Fran a spot or two, plus I don’t love what they have at that second cornerback spot, but as for now I see the recipe that made me predict them winning the NFC West ahead of 2019 and what allowed them to be up double-digits in the fourth quarter of the Super Bowl.

4. New Orleans Saints
One of the themes this offseason for me has been how loaded this Saints roster is and that they just need to win this year. This is the final season with Drew Brees at the helm, they are already in a horrible place with the cap – before that even goes down in 2021 – and to be honest, a lot of their key contributors are getting pretty old now. While I have seen a significant drop-off in the arm-strength of Brees, other than that I don’t see any offense with this Sean Payton-led offense – the front-five is elite, Alvin Kamara should be back to 100 percent as a dynamic dual-threat back and they finally found a number two receiver in Emmanuel Sanders. When healthy, that defensive line is a dominant unit, I think third-round pick Zack Baun (Wisconsin) gives that linebacker group some versatility and they have a lot of experience in the secondary, including a guy I thought would be a future star on the outside in Marshon Lattimore. Before anything else, they need to take care of divisional-rival Tampa Bay – which is a very tough challenge already – but if they can do that, they are fairly in the hunt for the NFC’s top seed. There’s a lot of pressure on this group because of the cap situation, their all-time great QB having his “Last Dance” and brutal playoff losses in recent years, but they have all it takes to finally break through all the way.

Playoff contenders:

This second tier consists of eight teams that to me have only or two holes on their roster, while their coaching gives them an advantage over the majority of teams in the league and they bring back most of their pieces from a year or at least improved in those areas. I expect all but one of these squads to make the playoffs in 2020, as long as they don’t suffer significant injuries along the way.

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Number five in the entire league seems pretty high for a team that finished below .500 last season, but this is not just about Tom Brady coming in, but rather the roster Tampa Bay has built around him. To me Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are the top receiver duo in the league, the Bucs arguably have the best tight-end room in the league and the offensive line only got better with superhuman Tristan Wirfs (Iowa) playing one of those spots on the right side. I have talked about this a lot over the offseason, looking at the match between Bruce Arians’ vertical-based passing attack and what Brady is used to, in terms of spreading the field and getting the ball out of his hands quickly. My bet is they go to a bit of hybrid and figure things out. Maybe more importantly, I don’t think people realize what they have put together on defense. Last season the Bucs finished number one against the run, they forced the fifth-most turnovers (28) and tied for sixth with yards per play (5.1) in the league. Todd Bowles is excellent defensive mind, who now enters his second season with as much talent as he has had since his Arizona days. Jameis turned it over 35 times last year (12 more than any other player in the league), while Tom didn’t even crack double-digits once again, and he immediately improves their situational football awareness and overall execution. This is a very dangerous squad.

6. Dallas Cowboys
When you talk about some of the most talented rosters in the league, the Dallas Cowboys come to mind right away – especially on the offensive side of the ball. Dak Prescott now has one of the premiere receiver trios with the selection of Ceedee Lamb (Oklahoma) in the draft, still probably a top-five offensive line and Zeke looking to re-establish himself as a top-tier back, after looking a step slow for most of last season. Defensively they are getting back Leighton Vander Esch, whose energy they desperately missed for stretches last season, and they have a very deep rotation at the defensive line (even though nobody knows what we’ll get from a couple of guys that were out of the league), while Mike Nolan will change things up a little more and get his guys into the face of opposing receivers. We have yet to see how much Mike McCarthy will want to have say in the offensive play-calling, but I like that they retained a young and creative OC in Kellen Moore, and as far as in-game control and CEO duties go, I certainly believe McCarthy is an upgrade. There are some questions with the secondary after the loss of Byron Jones and losing Travis Frederick to retirement hurts, but I think those are things that can be overcome. Something that I think should not be overlooked is the signing of former Rams kicker Greg Zuerlein and his special teams coordinator John Fassel, after converting only 75 percent of their field goal attempts last season (6th-lowest in the league) and missing a couple of crucial kicks.

7. Philadelphia Eagles
Right behind the Cowboys, I have their division rivals from Philadelphia. I think the Eagles actually have a better quarterback, the best defensive player among the two teams in Fletcher Cox and a more experienced secondary. However, with Brandon Brooks out for the season and maybe the worst group of linebackers in the NFL, I could not put this group ahead of Dallas, even though they have come up victorious against them in the big games recently. Last year Carson Wentz carried a group of skill-position players from the practice squad and a banged-up O-line to a division title. This upcoming season he will go from already wasn’t an overly dynamic receiving crew to a group of track stars, most notably with first-round pick Jalen Reagor (TCU) and a hopefully healthy DeSean Jackson, plus Miles Sanders I think is ready to emerge as a star back for Philly. The defense did lose some long-time stalwarts like Malcolm Jenkins and Nigel Bradham, but I loved the addition of Javon Hargreave in the middle to free up the other guys to attack upfield and with Darius Slay as their new CB1, not only does that move everybody one spot lower on the depth chart, but it also finally makes more sense for Jim Schwartz to be as aggressive with those zero-blitzes, since he has the guys to cover. Those two newcomers also fit perfectly when matching up against Dallas, because of an improvement interior run defense and having a guy who can match up with Amari Cooper, after the other guys got toasted for the most part.

8. Buffalo Bills
For the first time in about twenty years, a team not named the Patriots will enter a season as favorites in the AFC East – and it’s actually not that close for me. Buffalo made a switch last season offensively to more 11 personnel and quick-tempo with Brian Daboll moving to the booth. This offseason they finally got the big-armed Josh Allen a dependable deep threat in Stefon Diggs, who averaged 12.0 yards per target last season (second-highest in the league), which – similar to what I just talked about with the corners in Philadelphia – moves everybody else down one spot in the food chain. And I love what they do defensively, with Sean McDermott and Leslie Frazier’s game-plan specific zone pattern coverages, with a versatile secondary to execute those, to go with a deep D-line and two super-rangy linebackers. Even outside the Diggs trade, Buffalo has made some sneaky-good deals since losing that Wildcard game at Houston in such heart-breaking fashion. Whether that is Mario Addison as double-digit sack guy in four straight years, added depth on the O-line or a really solid draft class to complement what they already had. I don’t want to crown them at this point, but to me they are the favorites for the AFC’s number three seed as for right now, since I think the South doesn’t have that clear front-runner to win the majority of their divisional games.

9. Seattle Seahawks
I would have probably had the Hawks as the final team of this group or right at the top of the next one a couple of weeks ago, but after acquiring Jamal Adams, I think they have re-established themselves as that second team in the NFC West, since I had them very close with Arizona originally, I did not love what they did in the first two days of the draft (somewhat of a trend with them), they lost their second-best defensive player at that point in Jadeveon Clowney, I’m not sure if they upgraded on the offensive line and we don’t even if know if Quinton Dunbar will be suspended at this point. With that being said, Seattle has finished above .500 every single year with Russell Wilson under center and while I’m not a fan of their conservative approach offensively, where they don’t allow Russ to throw the ball on first downs and push the tempo a little at times, they are one of the most effective rushing teams and they have two lethal weapons to catch those trademark rainbow balls from the Seahawks QB. Defensively there are still some questions about the edge rush and at second corner spot, but Pete Carroll at least has what he wants most in a team at those positions – competition – and you already saw them go to more two-high looks in coverage than we are used to, telling me they utilize Jamal’s versatile skill-set more than what that strong safety mostly does in that system.

10. Green Bay Packers
The whole Aaron Rodgers-Jordan Love drama has been looming large over the offseason and that has brought us some interesting discussions, but let’s not allow this to take away from the fact Green Bay just had a first-round bye in the playoffs and made it to the NFC title game. While they were 8-1 in one-score games and should regress more towards the mean in terms of the success rate in those close games, the North is still wide open and they have a few things going for themselves – they have the best quarterback in the division, the best offensive line, the most versatile and effective pass rush and a lot of young talent in the secondary. The first-round selection of a future signal-caller aside, I wasn’t too fond of what they did in the draft. Even though I liked Cincinnati’s Josiah Deguara and can see what they want to do with him as H-back/move guy in this offense, I thought they did not get Aaron Rodgers help in the receiving corp, which has no proven commodity outside of Davante Adams. Their defense got absolutely steamrolled in two games against the eventual conference champion 49ers, but I hope to see Rashan Gary develop in his second season and I think Christian Kirksey was a very under-the-radar signing as a run-stopping linebacker. I think schematically with Matt LaFleur’s offense based on what they did under Sean McVay and Mike Pettine being very creative himself they are one of the better coaching staffs in the NFC, but I would like to see them open up the offense more for Rodgers and break tendencies more often with their coverage calls.

11. Pittsburgh Steelers
Another very dangerous squad for me is the Steelers. I have talked many times about how bad the Steelers quarterback situations was last season, as both Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges finished near the bottom in air yards per attempt, percentage of throws beyond the marker and many others. We have only seen Big Ben throw in some short clips on the internet, but if he is just 70-80 percent of what he was in 2018, this team is bound for a playoff berth. There are some question marks with this group of skill-position players, but I expect Juju to bounce back in a major way with a capable QB and being healthy himself, I have already picked Diontae Johnson as a breakout candidate for this season and I like the diversity of this group of backs. Pittsburgh’s defense was already elite last year, finishing top five in both yards and points allowed, tied for first in yards per play (4.7), the most takeaways (38) and sacks (54). If former Raven Chris Wormley can replace Javon Hargreave as a two-down run-stopper at least and rookie Antoine Brooks Jr. (Maryland) can fill a very specific role as their second sub-package linebacker in place of Mark Barron, I think they will one of the scariest units in the NFL once again. So the best all-around defense for my money and an offense who I would say has top ten potential at the very least is a tough match-up. Maybe not quite battling with the Ravens for the North, but the top Wildcard spot for sure.

12. Indianapolis Colts
If there is one team in the AFC that could go from finishing sub-.500 to making it all the way to the conference championship game, the Colts would be my pick. I thought Philip Rivers had a really rough 2019 campaign, in which his arm looked rather weak and his decision-making hurt the Chargers on multiple occasions, but he will play behind by far the best offensive line he has ever had and they will run the heck out of the ball. Indy already had a pretty good back in Marlon Mack, but Wisconsin superstar Jonathan Taylor, who they selected in the second round, will be one of the front-runners for Offensive Rookie of the Year if given the chances in combination with what I believe is the best front-five in the entire league, plus their other second-rounder Michael Pittman Jr. (USC) will be that Vincent Jackson/Mike Williams type target for Rivers. More importantly, with the trade for a top 50 player in the league in DeForest Buckner, this entire Colts D immediately takes a step forward, since he is a perfect fit as that 3-technique in their front and help them disrupt plays at a much higher rate, to go with range in zone coverage behind that, including the “Maniac” Darius Leonard chasing people down. I’m a big fan of Frank Reich and the coaching staff he is has put together, in terms of in-game decision-making, offensive gameplans and just the intensity his team plays him.

Fringe playoff teams:

This middle tier is made up from all those teams who I expect to be at .500 or above, firmly in contention for a Wildcard spot at least. They can be some areas of concern, but overall they have the roster ready to compete with the big dogs and/or feature above-average coaching. With a couple of these there is a change at quarterback and head coach respectively, but they have enough around those to overcome that.

13. Tennessee Titans
This definitely seems a little low for a team that is coming off an AFC Championship game appearance, but people seem to forget the Titans were 8-7 ahead of week 17 and if it wasn’t for the Steelers losing their final three games, this group wouldn’t have even been in position to lock down the six seed. Things were also made a lot easier by their division rival Texans, who sat most of their starters after beating Tennessee two weeks prior. So as impressive as their playoff run was, you have to think of what happened before that and put it into perspective a little. With one more playoff spot in each conference, their chances of making it to the tournament should be at least equally as good, but I believe the Colts are the favorites to win the South and for me the Steelers are the favorites for the fifth seed. With all that being said, there is plenty to like about this team still – they can pound you with the Derrick Henry and the run game, Ryan Tannehill at least gives them the threat of pulling the ball and going deep off play-action, they have some young weapons catching the ball and defensively they are very versatile in how they set up gameplans. I also like the mind-set Mike Vrabel installs in these guys and I was impressed with what OC Arthur Smith did in 2019. If there are two spots that could decide if this group is fighting for a division title or that final playoff berth, it will be their rookie right tackle Isaiah Wilson (Georgia) and recently signed edge rusher Vic Beasley.

14. Cleveland Browns
While I don’t see them competing for the AFC North – just because of how loaded the Ravens are – the Browns are pretty clearly the most talented team that is considered to be third in their division. In terms of their group of starting skill-position players at least, they are near the top of the NFL, the O-line to me already just made my top ten ranking with room to move up, if healthy they are at least in the conversation for that with the D-line as well, with a Defensive Player of the Year candidate in Myles Garrett, and I like how they have assembled their secondary. Now, they have some unproven guys at the linebacker level and Cleveland’s potential is largely dependent on which Baker Mayfield we will get. With Kevin Stefanski coming and installing an offense that will be built on the zone run game and bootlegs off that, where his quarterback is put on the move, I could see much more efficient play and more comfort in that system. Something that really jumped out to me on tape was how many times Baker seemed to not be “on the same page” with his receivers, expecting routes to break off differently and unfortunate drops in certain situations. Even though the preparation for the season does look a lot different and QB & WRs haven’t been able to spend too much time together, I expect this to improve and more suitable roles for those pass-catchers overall. And if they are ahead in more games, that pass rush will be a problem.

15. Arizona Cardinals
There are certainly still some issues here, but the Cardinals are probably the most exciting young team in all of the NFL. Kyler Murray was a one-man show last season and is due for a big jump, with DeAndre Hopkins being added to a receiving corp that severely lacked dependable weapons, to go with some other youngsters fully healthy, Kenyan Drake looked like a different player once he came over from Miami and the O-line should at least be marginally better. Defensively they transitioned a little up front, with big gap-pluggers on the line and Isaiah Simmons being that ultra-rangy player on the second level, who can run guys down on the edges, if those ball-carriers forced to bounce outside, plus they have maybe the most underappreciated edge rusher over the last four years in Chandler Jones. I don’t think they are very deep in the secondary, but Budda Baker is an absolute baller, Jalen Thompson emerged late last season and I already predicted Byron Murphy would have a breakout second season. With Kliff Kingsbury and Vance Joseph, Arizona has creative play-calling on both sides of the ball and they now have the personnel to execute at the needed level as well. Like I mentioned, I was ready to have the Cardinals at least go toe-to-toe with Seattle for a playoff spot, but the addition of Jamal Adams has shifted the balance again to some degree. And if you just go based off my rankings, two NFC Wildcard spots already go to teams from five to seven.

16. Denver Broncos
A team that has been getting a lot of love this offseason is the Broncos. They have pretty much all the pieces that you usually see with those rising squads – a promising second-year quarterback with a lot of weapons surrounding him, a ferocious defensive front and having shown signs late last season. My belief in them has taken a bit of a dump unfortunately since I thought they did well to improve the offensive line, with Garrett Bolles on the left end being the only weak-spot, but now that Ja’Wuan James won’t be available at right tackle for the second straight year (injury last season and now opting out), their duo of OTs is a concern for me. Defensively you have to love what they have in the front seven, with Von Miller and now again Bradley Chubb coming off the edges, Jurrell Casey added to the interior to go with Shelby Harris and Alexander Johnson being an under-the-radar standout at linebacker. I’ve always been a big fan of Justin Simmons, but that second corner spot is still up in the air. I like Vic Fangio and that coaching staff they have put together in Denver, with Pat Shurmur providing a QB-friendly offense, the game’s best O-line coach in Mike Munchak and most of the people that have helped Fangio put out elite defenses at multiple stops before. So the Broncos are still the most dangerous opponent of the Chiefs in the AFC West, but now I’m not sure if they can add some drama over the fourth quarter of the season.

17. Minnesota Vikings
At the same time, a team that has been a little overhyped to me this offseason is Minnesota. While I don’t love how the Packers have operated since February, what have the Vikings done to really improve? They traded away the best deep threat in the league last season in Stefon Diggs, stalwarts on the D-line in Everson Griffen and Linval Joseph are now gone, their entire group of corners has combined for less than 1500 career snaps and their offensive coordinator is now in Cleveland. I’m intrigued by the combination of Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson, who could be pretty interchangeable in their roles and I like their 12 and 21 personnel groupings, but they lack depth at the receiver position. And the defense will be relying on several inexperienced pieces to step in. I mean their three starting corners from last year are off the team now. So I don’t really get how most people all of a sudden put them ahead of the Packers. With that being said, I like the offensive scheme and always thought Gary Kubiak was a huge factor in their success on the ground at least. On defense there are certainly question marks – especially in the secondary – but Minnesota could easily have a top five player at their respective position at all three levels, with Danielle Hunter, Eric Kendricks and Anthony Harris, plus they still have some promising young guys like Ifeadi Odenigbo, Mike Hughes and a deep rookie class. Their only true shade nose Michael Pierce opting out hurts though.

18. New England Patriots
This offseason must have been a rollercoaster for Patriots fans. First, Tom Brady leaves and everybody goes crazy. Then people start getting onto the Jarrett Stidham hype train and talk about how good the rest of this team still is. Out of nowhere they sign Cam Newton for the veteran minimum basically and they are back in the conversation for the top teams in the AFC all of sudden. And now, they lead the league in players opting out of the season, with key defensive pieces like Dont’a Hightower and Patrick Chung, to go with a couple of role players on offense at least. So now they are right at the bottom of these fringe playoff teams for me, because purely based on the roster, they are not even in the top 20 league-wide, but they still have maybe the greatest defensive mind in NFL history in Bill Belichick and one of the best offensive play-callers right now in Josh McDaniels. Obviously a lot of this will come down to what version of Cam Newton we will get and even if he is and can stay totally healthy. Not only is New England the most adaptable team in terms of how they can adjust to personnel and how flexible they are with their game-plans, but Cam is a great fit in that offense, where he can spread the field and make decisions based on defenses adjusting. The one area that took the biggest bump – outside of quarterback I’m guessing – is the offensive line, because they lost a legendary position coach in Dante Scarnecchia and their probable starter at right tackle in Marcus Cannon. While the Pats do have some young players, who can replace part of the losses, they were already more in plan for the pieces that left before there was any virus outbreak.

Around .500:

This broad group of seven teams represents all those franchises who will be dancing around .500 mark in the win-loss column. A couple of teams have the potential to win nine or ten games, while others could see those numbers on the wrong side of the column as well. There are obvious question marks in certain areas, even though they might feature top-tier players and/or coaches.


19. Houston Texans
It’s kind of tough to put a team here that has won its division the last two years, but I think the Texans are pretty clearly number three in the South now. I love Deshaun Watson and I think he has fairly established himself as a top five quarterback in the NFL, but Bill O’Brien just took away an elite wide receiver in DeAndre Hopkins and replaced him with an injury-prone Brandin Cooks to go with another always banged up Will Fuller and a declining Randall Cobb, to go with a David Johnson in the backfield, who was unrecognizable last season. I think the O-line is improving, but outside of Laremy Tunsil maybe, they don’t have anybody other than Deshaun who is clearly above-average in their role. And defensively they finished in the bottom five in yards allowed and tied with Cincinnati (who picked first overall in the draft) for an NFL-high 6.1 yards allowed per play. Hopefully having J.J. Watt back for a full season should help, I like the selection of Ross Blacklock (TCU) on the inside and there are some talented young corners on this roster, who could be better much in 2020. I would not be surprised if they are that .500 team at heart and their quarterback carried them to a couple of wins that they weren’t supposed to get – which we have seen him do many times before – but it’s more likely to me that they are fighting for one of the two bottom Wildcard spots.

20. Atlanta Falcons
Very rarely do you have a team that was among the worst over the first half of the season and among the best over the second half. The Falcons started out 2019 with a 1-7 record, but would go on to win six of the final eight games. Their defense was absolutely atrocious early on last season, with no pass-rush impacting the opposing quarterback and several miscues in coverage. With Raheem Morris taking over the defensive play-calling, they showed a lot of improvement already and there are signs that trend will continue. While there are some questions about the back-end and if they can get consistent production from their rush outside the top two guys, I think Dante Fowler is an upgrade over Vic Beasley, I like Marlon Davidson (Auburn) as a guy with inside-out flexibility on sub-packages and Keanu Neal is back healthy, as that Kam Chancellor-type, who can be that extra defender in the box in their system and punish receivers when catching the ball over the middle or in the flats. Offensively I believe this is still a team that can move the ball – they just have to start doing so earlier in games. While the top NFL receiver duo is in their own division with the guys in Tampa Bay, Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley could easily be that next one. They lost a very productive tight-end in Austin Hooper, but I believe Hayden Hurst can replace at least 80 percent of that production, and while we have no idea what we get from Todd Gurley and his knees at this point, last year the Falcons had one of the least effective per-touch backs in Devonta Freeman. Plus, the O-line should take a step forward with former first-round pick Chris Lindstrom returning from injury.

21. Las Vegas Raiders
To me the Raiders are still in transition, not only moving to Las Vegas, but also in terms of roster construction and the culture Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock are trying to establish. Outside of Tyrell Williams, that entire group of receivers was overhauled, they have a lot of young pieces on the defensive line and the secondary, plus they will have at least two new starters on the second level of their defense. By far the biggest thing they have going for them is the offensive line and second-year back Josh Jacobs running behind it. When I did my top ten offensive lines in the NFL a couple of weeks ago, I had the Silver & Black at number five, and Jacobs was already a top 100 player in the league for me, with how physical and elusive a runner as he is. I could easily see the Raiders finish near the top in terms of ground production, and I also like the young guys they brought in around that, with Henry Ruggs III (Alabama) keeping the defense honest with his speed, Bryan Edwards (South Carolina) as a physical receiver, who will get hands after the catch, and Lynn Bowden Jr. (Kentucky) as that chess-piece potentially, that you can use in a multitude of way. My bigger question here is if Derek Carr is willing to push the ball down the field. Defensively I like the rotation they have on the interior D-line and the two linebackers they brought in via free agency, most notably Corey Littleton. There are still some questions about how snaps will be split between their corner group, but I’m excited to see a full season of Jonathan Abram hopefully. These guys have some attitude and an energetic head coach.

22. Los Angeles Rams
Oh, how far we have come. Just one-and-a-half years ago the Rams were officially 20 spots higher basically, when they lost the Super Bowl to New England. Ahead of last season, I predicted them to miss the playoffs and while they made a bit of a run at it late, that’s what ended up happening. Now I see them as the fourth team in their own division – even though that says more about the competition they face rather than them. I still believe in Sean McVay and his ability to win on paper with play-design and game-planning, but Jared Goff has turned out to be an average quarterback, they don’t have a prime Todd Gurley setting the table anymore and the offensive line had some major issues, for large stretches of last season, especially in the run game. I was very high on Cam Akers, who they selected in the second round out of Florida State, but he will obviously be a rookie with shortened preparation, rather than an Offensive Player of the Year like Gurley was for them. Defensively, they have two elite players in Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey and I like some of the other guys in their roles, but overall the high-end talent beyond the two biggest names isn’t overly impressive. Leonard Floyd might be their top edge rusher and he has always been more of a Robin, they have no proven commodity as stand-up linebacker and I have yet to see if Brandon Staley can actually be an upgrade over Wade Phillips as their defensive coordinator.

23. Detroit Lions
While I was going back and forth with putting the Lions third or fourth in the NFC North, I recently said they are among the top two teams that could go from worst to first in their division and I would not be surprised if they were in the hunt for a Wildcard spot in the last couple of weeks of the season. His second year in a system under Darrell Bevell – where he wasn’t just going in shotgun 40 times a game and asked to make magic happen – Matthew Stafford looked like an MVP candidate as long as he was healthy in 2019. That duo of Kerryon Johnson and my top-ranked running back in the draft D’Andre Swift (Georgia) could be one of the most dynamic ones in the league, the receiving corp is highly underrated and I like those rookies competing for the two guard spots. Defensively, they seem to finally look like what Matt Patricia wanted, when he came over from New England, in terms being versatile with their fronts and having guys who can take on receivers in man-coverage. With that being said, there is also a good chance that the Patricia experiment could go to shambles, if some of the veterans get turned off by his style of coaching without having established that winning culture, and this team has simply been dealing with too many injuries to key players. I don’t think there is much of a gap between the Lions and Vikings for example, but Detroit has not shown the stability of some other organizations.

24. Chicago Bears
A franchise that I don’t really hear anybody talk about – unless it’s their quarterback competition – is that team from the Windy City. I understand that the Bears aren’t really sexy because they lack those superstars on offense that people will recognize, but I’m higher on some of the guys they do have on that side of the ball and on defense they could be much closer to 2018, when they led the league in points allowed and turnovers forced, rather than being just inside the top in most categories last season. A guy I already predicted to break out for Chicago this upcoming season with a bigger workload is running back David Montgomery, to go with Anthony Miller as a gadget player and developing young pass-catcher and one of the more underappreciated receivers out there in Allen Robinson. Defensively, I thought the biggest issue last season was Akiem Hicks missing double-digit games, as a table-setter with his ability to disrupt plays from the interior, and Leonard Floyd didn’t provide much on the opposite side of Khalil Mack, who they upgrade from with Robert Quinn, who just had his best season since the Rams were still in St. Louis. Now, I don’t love what they have at that second safety spot to complement Eddie Jackson, someone will have to fill that second corner spot – even though I’m a fan of second-round pick Jaylon Johnson (Utah) – and nose tackle Eddie Goldman opting out is a huge loss. If the quarterback position can just complement the rushing attack and the defense plays up to their potential, this group could be competing for second in the North, but Foles or Trubisky could still hold them back.

https://preview.redd.it/aep6uj385di51.png?width=1060&format=png&auto=webp&s=07674898e4de7d73699c065907983e69612c56a4


The final tier is in the comments!!

If you enjoyed this breakdown, I would really appreciate if you could visit the original piece - https://halilsrealfootballtalk.com/2020/08/18/ranking-all-32-nfl-teams-in-tiers-pre-season/
You can also listen to my analysis on the Youtube channel - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zz7WE0epZw8
submitted by hallach_halil to nfl [link] [comments]

[Modern] [Discussion] Death's Shadow in an Uro/Prowess World

Alright, I've been working on a bit of a project for a couple months now. This project is to break down actual game play of Death's Shadow in modern, rather than focus on theory. What does this mean? Essentially, I got tired of hearing "x matchup is a bye. We just thoughtseize their threat, drop a shadow, and battle rage. GG." Sure, why didn't I think of that? That sounds fantastic! For the 5% of games that play out exactly like that... But what about the rest? How are these matchups playing out when our lines get muddled, or they have a second threat, or our creature is answered? That's what I hope to uncover in this dive. For the purpose of this experiment, we'll be looking at the current hotness, 4 color Death's Shadow. I'm going to go over the general setup of this project, some interesting matchup breakdowns, and end on some closing thoughts as well as brief experience from Grixis Shadow.

The data collected has come from personal play of approximately 300 matches over about 55 Modern leagues on MTGO and a few Modern Challenges/Preliminaries (300 sounded like a pretty rounded number to stop and give an update). Over this span, we achieved a 206-94 record, good for a 69% win rate. Here is an "average" list to give an idea of what we were working with. I'll go over changes from traditional 4 Color Shadow lists.
4 Death's Shadow
4 Tarmogoyf
4 Street Wraith
1 Lurrus of the Dream-Den
4 Mishra's Bauble
2 Cling to Dust
4 Stubborn Denial
4 Fatal Push
3 Inquisition of Kozilek
4 Thoughtseize
3 Traverse the Ulvenwald
1 Drown in the Loch
2 Temur Battle Rage
2 Dismember
1 Breeding Pool
1 Overgrown Tomb
1 Watery Grave
1 Blood Crypt
3 Nurturing Peatland
4 Polluted Delta
4 Verdant Catacombs
2 Bloodstained Mire
1 Swamp
Sideboard:
2 Ceremonious Rejection
2 Nihil Spellbomb
2 Veil of Summer
2 Assassin's Trophy
2 Collective Brutality
2 Ashiok, Dream Render
1 Plague Engineer
1 Aether Gust
1 Kolaghan's Command

Let's go over some general questions before we get in to the meat and potatoes.

Why 4 Color over Grixis/Jund/other Shadow variant?
Short answer: It boils down to personal preference. For me, 4 Color provides a strong balance between threat density/consistency, and the additional disruption and protection from late game top decks that stubborn denial provides. The general rule of thumb is that grixis is going to provide the best disruption and protection, but lowest threat consistency. Jund provides the highest threat density and explosiveness, but at the loss of threat protection and general disruption. 4 Color finds itself somewhere in the middle, with the ability to lean one way or the other.

Any changes from stock lists?
3 Peatland instead of the popular 4. Shadow decks have always had a propensity for flood, simply due to your deck being so efficient that any extra lands become extremely noticeable. My personal opinion is that if the game goes long for you to need to crack multiple peatlands, your odds of winning against the grindier decks is so low that it doesn't particularly matter. Redrawing off a peat land is great, but less so when your opponent has a Jace/ seasoned pyromance Uro/ Liliana out. In its place, I've opted for the 4th Stubborn Denial in the main. I've seen lists moving the 4th to the board, as well as some cutting the 4th altogether. In my opinion, stub is one of the top 3 reasons to play Death's Shadow at all, and leaving home with less than 4 is nothing short of blasphemy. Force of Negation is the only card doing the same job more efficiently, and we don't have to lose an extra card to use ours.

Surprising matchup results:

Temur Uro: 13-5 (72%)
This is one that has evolved a bit since I started testing 4 color. In the beginning, these decks were running Ice-Fangs, which is a nightmare card for shadow to beat (can't stub, gives them card advantage, trades 1 for 1 with our threats). However, when Ice-Fang started getting replaced with reclamations and fact or fictions, our win rate skyrocketed. Who has two thumbs and preys upon 4 mana sorcery speed spells? This guy. (Insert picture of thumbs pointing at self). Some keys to the matchup include getting threat down under remand. We need to get on the board quickly. They don't have good answers for our creatures, especially shadow (aether gust often comes in for goyf), so keeping a hand that allows for a turn 2 threat on the play, or hand disruption in to a threat on the draw can often put them on the back foot quickly. That makes the second priority preventing Uro from causing nightmares. Spellbomb, Ashiok, any non-dismember removal can accomplish this. Pushes aren't where you want to be in the matchup, but sometimes leaving 1 in if you don't have more to board is fine. We often don't care about Uro hitting the field from hand or escape, we just don't want it sticking around and road blocking us. Veil of summer gets significantly better if they're on archmage's charm, but is pretty unnecessary if they aren't.
Sultai Uro (3-2, 60%) is a much tougher matchup, as their interaction lines up way better against our threats. Veil really shines here.

UR Prowess: 15-6 (71%)
Another matchup that has evolved in recent months, since the printing of Stormwing Entity. Hands that were fantastic against Mono R (think push, inquisition, stub, drown, goyf) are pretty disastrous in the face of a 3/3 prowess flyer with a 5 cmc body that dodges everything but dismember. This is one of the primary reasons I'm running trophy in multiples out of the board. Understanding that we can play patiently is crucial here, and putting emphasis on finding goyfs can be a game changer. Since we don't have to lower our life aggressively for a goyf, we can often force opponents to point multiple spells to get it off the field (hopefully in to a stub). Post board, answering a stormwing is huge. I'd almost go as far as saying I would mull the VAST majority of hands simply because they didn't have an answer to it in one way or another (dismember, thoughtseize, trophy). The first couple of turns are often the most critical, so give your opponent as few openings as possible. Some examples include: if you have the fatal push for the 1 drop, consider fetching on your turn. Fetching on your opponents' turn to kill a creature turns on spectacle for light up the stage, even if they didn't hit you. A soft stub on a manamorphose turn 2 can prevent a huge turn, often giving you time to get a threat down or stop a stormwing from hitting the battlefield for another turn or 2. Siding in a single spellbomb isn't terrible to force inopportune lava darts and prevent bedlam reveler from sealing the late game. Focus on the creatures. You don't want them getting extensive chip damage with guys, or the likelihood of a top deck sprite dragon/swifspear with a couple sandbagged burn spells being lethal goes up tremendously. Don't forget, if you board out all 4 wraiths, you can board out Lurrus and use it as a companion. This can be extremely useful if you find yourself wanting to board in at least 5 cards (ex: 2 trophy, 2 brutality, 1 aether gust).
Mono R Prowess (6-1, 86%) much easier since they aren't running stormwing. Be careful of blood moon post board, and again, focus on knocking off creatures aggressively. RB Prowess (2-5, 29%): ugh... this matchup feels atrocious. Their ability to hit you with hand disruption if you sandbag threats and let them hit you, combined with their ability to grind out games with abbot, lurrus, cling to dust, and holding cards like seal of fire on board makes it very difficult to interact optimally. Stopping the grave becomes much more important, and holding a piece of hand disruption for lurrus can shift things in your favor a bit.

Eldrazi Tron: 14-6 (70%)
Much better matchup for 4 color than for Grixis. A thoughtseize or inquisition on turn 1 often means our goyfs will be bigger than smashers (since artifacts, planeswalkers, and the occasional tribal all is dust are all solid hits). Best stub targets include mazemind tome, Karn, the Great Creator, and chalice of the voice (though we're far less susceptible to Chalice than grixis). Don't be afraid to diversify your creatures. "But traversing for a second shadow gives me two really big guys!", but their ability to top deck expedition maps and blast zones can make that quite the dangerous move. "So just get two tarmogoyfs." E map also get scavenger grounds. So prioritizing one of each can help protect you from a larger number of top decks. Post board, we want to prioritize hands with a dude. If that hand also has a piece or two of interaction, fantastic, but we need to get on the board to turn on stubs, and make chalices worse. If you're running damping sphere, please don't bring it in here. You're taking a turn off to slow them down a turn. It's not worth it. But cards like trophy, rejection, and k command totally are. I often board out some of our grave-relient pieces like a traverse, drown in the loch, as well as some number of fatal pushes. Inquisition has become more acceptable recently due to mazemind tome and their need for cards like dismembewarping wail/chalice to stay alive. Even if they assemble tron on turn 3, I likely wouldn't lean towards using trophy on a land. The amount of times I've seen nat tron in to matter reshaper makes me care way less than just holding the trophy for Karn/smashebridge.

UW/x Control (non-Uro, path and planeswalker based): 8-4 (67%)
First off, this matchup is NOT as good as the record indicates. I was fortunate that I ran in to UW multiple times during a period where I was explicitly testing out multiple cards as hate for UWx, including Autumnal Gloom, Lazotep Plating, and Thrun, the Last Troll. That being said, I'll try to get some decent pointers to even out the matchup as much as possible. You often have to overextend in to verdict and "hope they don't draw it." Unfortunately that's a big part of our plan, as they are able to answer our threats 1 for 1 on an extremely efficient basis. T3feri has made the matchup significantly more difficult, as stubborn denial is often our best way to interact by a mile. Cling to dust has given us some game against mystic sanctuary, but we absolutely cannot let them resolve a planeswalker unless we already have multiple threats on board. Stealing game 1 is a huge part of winning the match, as they often keep hands that are lacking in some area, and we have the opportunity to exploit that. Maybe it's a hand with 4 lands, path, cryptic, and Jace, and we can take path and get under their walker. Maybe it's a hand that needs to draw white mana and we can get pressure early while we hold up stub for when they do. Post board, these opportunities dwindle and it becomes far more important to keep solid, all around hands. Don't be afraid to board out every piece of removal in your deck, you can always leave a piece or two in if you expect or have seen stoneforge. Veil of summer isn't great here. We get under their counters, and you might get to stop a t3feri or jace bounce, but they still have a value engine on board that we have a tough time dealing with. Their white based removal just ignores veil completely. If you're looking for spice, Lazotep Plating has been discussed in the discord as a replacement that also stops field of ruin tempo turns, consider giving it a try and see if it works for you. Otherwise, trophy, k command, spellbomb, and ashiok are board-in considerations to deal with planeswalkers, grind ability, and mystic sanctuary, respectively.

Gruul Midrange: 9-5 (64%)
Oh, where to begin. So many directions this matchup can go. I think it's one of the more fun matchups in modern at the moment. We'll have some notes about play patterns a little later that apply here. For example, in the blind, on the play game 1, holding up stub is often better than thoughtseizing turn 1. This applies here, as being able to stub a utopia sprawl before untapping and seizing a second sprawl/impactful 2/3 drop can often act as a pseudo time walk. From here, it progresses to a bit of a priority system. Number 1) can I do something to get a threat down. Red based removal is often terrible against Shadow and Goyf, so getting a dude down often means it's sticking around forever. Number 2) do they have something that stops me from playing the game? Blood moon and magus of the moon are typically the first cards that come to mind here (potentially klothys if your grave is taxes and you're relying on traverse. Taking these before they land or having answers lined up in hand helps make sure you're not just stopped in your tracks. Number 3) where is their advantage coming from? Bloodbraid and Pyromancer allow them to rebuild after hand disruption/removal/counters early. If you can deal with the rest, consider taking the value pieces to reduce their ability to grind back in the mid game. Post board, I've seen a few different suggestions, so I'm going to give what's working alright for me. Don't keep a hand without a threat or the ability to find one quickly. You need to protect yourself from a blood moon + veil/ability to pay for stub. The best way to do that is to get a threat down before that happens. They love boarding in a bunch of veils and relics, so Lurrus and traverse can often become liabilities. I wouldn't board out traverse if you're on a basic forest, but I board out 2 with just the swamp. Between relic, scooze, and klothys, the second traverse if often completely dead. Play to your hand. If you're sitting on a shadow, you probably don't care about klothys at all, but if you have goyf, it can really nerf your clock. Tag a chandra and you can often be looking at a 7/8 goyf. Seasoned pyromancer is probably the best card against us, as the blockers it provides can buy them several turns. You can consider bringing in plague engineer to help, but it's often too slow on the draw. Otherwise, trophy and gust are pretty solid boards. Don't be afraid to trophy a utopia sprawl'd land early on, as it can slow things down long enough to get a dude under prison pieces. Example, trophying a turn 1 sprawl'd forest on the play means you can have a goyf down on turn 3 plus hold up a stub, while they get to untap for their third turn and gain access to their third mana, instead of 4th for moon + veil.

General tips:

Turn 1 in the blind, if you have the option to seize/inquisition or hold up stub, go with stub. The amount of turn 1 non-creature pieces that create a huge advantage in modern is nuts. Play to that. Vial, sprawl, amulet, map, stasphere, inquisition/seize, neoform, shriekhorn... you get the idea. The decks that aren't playing these pieces, I can just about guarantee that the thoughtseize you're sitting on is just as, if not more, impactful on turn 2. The amount of times that I could have prevented getting burned by holding up stub, as opposed to seizing in to double vial/ star + sphere with stirrings and scrying and no green source/ double amulet/ double neoform with rider + pact is insane. Stub allows you to get value on turn 1 plus more from your thoughtseize, where that stub could just be dead from that point on if you seize in to duplicate 1 drops. We play on such tight margins that we can't afford to not get value from our cards.
You don't have to be aggressive every single turn. Let me repeat that for those who didn't hear me. YOU DON'T HAVE TO BE AGGRESSIVE EVERY SINGLE TURN. "But you're playing shadow, you want a lower life total to make a bigger shadow." Makes sense. What if they thoughtseize your shadow and you took yourself down to 5? What if you never draw the shadow? Know the matchup. Up against burn? Don't fetch and shock without a good reason. Up against tron? Fetch and shock away, just be weary of ballista. But the amount of times I've played the mirror and had opponents fetch and shock and wraith 3 times and play a shadow on turn 2 just to have it pushed, and then die to 1 swing off a goyf because they didn't have a plan, is through the roof. The last thing you want to do is give your opponent a free win because you didn't have a goal. The deck has a lot of ways of lowering life, sand bagging a few can often be more useful than using them without purpose.
If your opponent is playing hand hate, please have a very, VERY, good reason before you pop that bauble on your turn. Opponent tapped down and you can turn on delirium to traverse for a shadow this turn? Absolutely, go for it. You have a fetch and want to scry? You can do that on your opponent's turn and not run the risk of drawing in to something you can't afford to lose. Goes along with that "don't have to be aggressive" comment. Just because you have things you CAN do, doesn't mean you SHOULD do them. Maximize your value, not your plays per turn.
Final words: if you've made it this far, this might be the deck for you. It takes reps and dedication to get a feel for how games are going to play out. But it is by far one of the most rewarding archetypes in all of modern. Unfortunately I don't have links to the discords, but I'm sure people in chat can leave them if necessary. Otherwise, if you're looking for another resource for game play content and discussion, feel free to come check out my stream: https://www.twitch.tv/the_cntrlfreak where we play Shadow variants and test new options/underplayed cards Monday-Friday from 2pm CST until we decide to stop. Vods also available for previous leagues if you'd like some current content. We have a fantastic community of Shadow enthusiasts and new players to keep the discussion flowing wherever you decide to get your fix. As always, thanks for taking the time to read my ramblings and thoughts. Looking forward to the next innovator to come along and redefine the archetype.
submitted by the_cntrlfreak to spikes [link] [comments]

SWK - Insanely Cheap Mining Adjacency

SWK - Insanely Cheap Mining Adjacency
*** Updated Research

SWK provides an amazing opportunity to take advantage of the bull market in precious metals at an undemanding valuation with excellent operational momentum.
Environment:
Precious metals have had a phenomenal ride lately; both due to fear arising from COVID-19, and coordinated monetary policy stimulating economies at an unprecedented level. The graphic below shows the recent parabolic move in GLD (overshadowed by SLV) and reflecting upon the 08 crisis and the numerous QE policies that followed, this upward trajectory may continue further.

GLD vs DJIA (2006-Present)

With rises in commodity prices, the logical next step is to get some operating leverage and purchase the gold miners. No doubt, this second level thinking has been handsomely rewarded albeit encountering the sovereign and FX risks with many of the global miners domiciled in South Africa and Russia:

DRDGold, Polyus and Polymetal (April 20 - Present)
Since many of these miners are in the process of expanding production, cash flow won't be realised for several years and operating margins may not improve as much as managements' forecast (i.e. ASX: DAC). Further, since the market has drawn the logical connection between commodity prices and miners, these companies have run a very long way in the last few months.

Company Overview:
This is where SWK provides us with a cheaper and lower risk opportunity to gain access to this thematic. SWK provides drilling services to large miners of metals (i.e. nickel, silver, gold etc.) in US, Canada, Europe and Australia. Specifically, they use specialised drills to extract samples, which they analyse to then assess to the viability of a site. Increasing demand for mining exploration will, intuitively, increase drilling utilisation and drilling rates. SWK also entirely owns Orexplore, which provides mobile sample analysis to determine the characteristics of extracted cores. This improves the efficiency of examining the quality of a site by removing cost (transportation and storage), timing (it can be conducted on-site), and operational risk (damage in transit) all of which further benefit the mining co. and embed SWK into the exploration process.

Competitive Advantage:
SWK’s competitive advantage is being able to a world class cost effective and efficient underground drilling. For example, their development of DeepEX allows for longer hole from underground that are cheaper than many shorter surface holes. Their recent contract extension from BHP at Olympic Dam despite competitors (i.e. MSV and BLY) rigs being used onsite is testament to their value proposition.
SWK has also invested heavily (~$25mn) into their Orexplore technology in an attempt to move up the value chain away from high-capital intensive drilling into a higher margin business. This technology removes significant operating expenses (employees and equipment), reduces lead time (can be built and shipped globally within 2 weeks), is very simple to use (technical training is not required), and most importantly, is currently being purchased for free and is the main catalyst in this investment (more on this later).
Furthermore, SWK has made a concerted effort to increasingly diversify their product offering to different miners (with exposure to various commodities), and geographically. Their global and diversified footprint has provided them with a world-wide footprint, with costs to build their global business already incurred (most recently in Pogo – Alaska), further encouraging a buyout (more on this later).
FY19 Financial Report
H1 2020 Financial Report


Catalyst and Valuation:
Exit Options:
The primary catalyst for a revaluation in SWK is a huge macroeconomic tailwind providing momentum that might facilitate a sale of the drilling business to a strategic buyer. Without doing too much crystal ball gazing, I view the exit opportunities as follows:
5% - Amazing sale of drilling business = >100%+ returns;
65% - Solid sale of drilling business = 50-100% returns;
20% - No sale and general re-rate = 25-50% returns;
10% - Languishing business and capital destruction = -25%-0% returns.
Given management’s firm guidance towards the sale (https://www.openbriefing.com/OB/Swick-Mining-Services-Ltd/2020/2/25/Swick-HY20-Results-Conference-Call/3716.aspx at ~08:00) I will focus on our base case that entails: (i) selling or closing surface drilling business as it’s the lowest margin / weakest vertical; (ii) selling underground drilling business; and (iii) refocus towards Orexplore either through taking the business private, IPOing a new entity or rebranding SWK.
Given shareholders have been frustrated with SWKs delay in progressing the business towards a sale and having difficulty commercialising Orexplore it has been important to wait for a noticeable inflexion point in the business to attempt to “time” entry as much as possible. Let’s see how the inflexion point is here beyond the macroeconomic environment above.
Miners around the world are aggressively looking to expand their operations due to increasing commodity prices and SWK's services become front of mind. Recent news is ticking all the boxes and adding huge momentum in the stock to catalyse a re-rating.
  1. Reinstatement of dividend payment and share buyback program showing prudential capital management and a positive outlook relating to future financial position. This is a double-edged sword as management raised capital at 23c and bought back shares from 12.5c through to 17.5. By buying now, we have avoided this dilution although acknowledge this was not the best form of capital management. On the other hand, it does suggest management are flush with cash and happy to redistribute to existing shareholders before a possible sale; that is, we get paid to wait:

ASX Announcement 1
ASX Announcement 1

ASX Announcement 2

  1. Contracts are being extended, new contracts being won, and guidance on FY21 figures. Management are highlighting clear intention to demerge and growth is providing EBITDA growth for a better sale price:

https://preview.redd.it/06fxmos33dh51.png?width=563&format=png&auto=webp&s=70367dc6c623a4bb16c434f7f0f9892cd2a2f20b

  1. Large contracts with key miners and commercialisation of Orexplore. This is increasing utilisation rates and improving margins by expanding work at existing sites:
ASX Announcement 3a

ASX Announcement 3b

  1. Upcoming earnings call to catalyse re-rating:
ASX Announcement 4


  1. The Orexplore website (https://orexplore.com/the-orexplore-review/) has received increased attention with far more activity within their “Review Blog” section leading towards commercialisation. Posts are being made almost weekly increasing its awareness:
https://preview.redd.it/snsbk0vz2dh51.png?width=602&format=png&auto=webp&s=bb5a68c362a20c900c127dd53357ac5bf46dbbd5
https://preview.redd.it/1a80klgz2dh51.png?width=602&format=png&auto=webp&s=ab1f81609e06fc30683de45a4de778bb2838bb80

  1. MSV as the strategic buyer for the drilling business has shown intent to inorganically expand their operations. Deepcore had an EV of ~$44m (excl. additional earnout payments), revenues of ~$50m p.a., and an EBITDA of ~$12m with approximately half the rig number of SWK. This purchase confirms the “fair value” multiple for a drilling business is ~4x EV/EBITDA, even for a significantly weaker private business due to utilisation, profitability, scale and contractual certainty.
https://preview.redd.it/jumpn58y2dh51.png?width=602&format=png&auto=webp&s=ad650e7b63b341e06ddd0a8bff88121249a03925
Valuation:
Ok, so let’s turn our attention to the forward guidance and conservative estimates for SWK. SWK against mostly all metrics is very cheap. Management have forecast EBITDA to be ~$25mn in FY20. Although I think we can conservatively estimate this to grow significantly throughout FY21.
The improvements to EBITDA will come from the following: (i) commercialisation of Orexplore = $0.5-1mn, (ii) ~$3-4mn in reaching steady state (20%) margin from the Pogo contract as costs normalise and backdated earnings flow through; (iii) ~$2mn in operating expense reduction during COVID-19; (iv) the $120m increase in the order book between 30 July and 14 August implies $120/5 = $24m p.a. at a slight discount to target margin of ~15% gives another $3.5mn EBITDA. Putting this all together FY21 EBITDA might be ~$35mn.
In addition to the purchase of Deepcore, we can use the current valuation ratios of MSV and CAPD as a guide. Currently competitors trade between 3.5x (CAPD) and 4.5x (MSV) EV/EBITDA multiples. If we use 4x as a reasonable multiple on current EBITDA, this would imply an enterprise value of ~$100mn (or a 30% upside) whilst paying nothing for Orexplore. Upon conservative forward FY21 EBITDA figures, the enterprise value could easily reach ~$150 (or a 100% upside) again paying almost nothing (only $1mn / $35mn in EBITDA) for Orexplore.
By way of reference, SWK with similar metrics in 2011/12 was trading at a ~100% premium (i.e. ~40c (market cap $90-110mn) whereas now it is ~$20 (market cap $50mn). A decade ago, it also did not have the same existing clientele and large-scale contract wins (see 3a above with a forward order book of $363mn (relative to current revenues of ~$150mn).
The cherry on top of this investment is Orexplore, which we buy for free. None of the revenue and earnings multiples above include any real impact from Orexplore. On 14th August the commercial viability of Orexplore was been partially validated with their first contract win. Although its value is only $700,000 over 6 months this call option like payoff comes entirely for free. Further, the true profit margins of SWK has been hidden due to the losses incurred from Orexplore, which has to date cost $25mn in R&D (or equal to almost 10yrs of earnings), the amortisation of associated software development, and continued global expansion (Portugal and Europe before North America) each requiring initial costs prior to achieving target margins. Even better we get a first glimpse at how attractive Orexplore might be. Combining discussion in the latest conference call (https://www.openbriefing.com/OB/Swick-Mining-Services-Ltd/2020/2/25/Swick-HY20-Results-Conference-Call/3716.aspx 04:30 - 06:30) with the recent contract we can conclude the following: (i) 3 machines at Sandfire will generate ~$3.6mn in revenue covering approx. 50% of cash flow with nearly no operating expenses; (ii) $700,000 for 6months scanning 1500m of core per month implies ~$75/m (against an estimated $100m from guidance). As per guidance, if we assume Orexplore machines can scan ~$4m/hr ($300hr) and total costs may include one unskilled technician and minimal overheads ~$50mn this provides a gross margin of ~75% (or almost 4x undergrounding drilling). Due to the profitability of Orexplore, 15-20 operational machines on yearly contracts would provide greater earnings than SWK’s entire business. Hopefully the publicity of Orexplore at Sandfire can attract some attention, and in turn some additional contracts.

Risks:
No investment is without its risks, and for SWK they fall into: (i) capital mismanagement; and (ii) poor communication / delays. Firstly, the recent capital raise at ~23c followed by aggressive buybacks at ~12.5-14c-17c seems unwise. Although buying now avoids this dilution, it is unclear why excess capital was required if dividends and buybacks were announced shortly thereafter. Secondly, the share price has historically languished due to a lack of publicity and detail on the transformational Orexplore. It is likely that management were unwilling to oversell the Orexplore narrative before genuine contracts were won and the technology was established. Now that these are in place, hopefully the corporate restructure can take place and the upcoming strategic review can provide a clearer picture for the near term.
submitted by Bruticus91 to ASX_Bets [link] [comments]

Morning Op-Ed: The Art of Racing In The Rain

Morning Op-Ed: The Art of Racing In The Rain

https://preview.redd.it/41gp3gv0bdg51.png?width=578&format=png&auto=webp&s=8efaa3dbd334c1adce493869153462c862392e3b
I post these editorials in the morning because before bed and early are when I do my best slow thinking. They are actually hard for me to post because they make me feel a little vulnerable, though I'm not sure why - or why still. I used to just delete them about an hour after I posted them. I get up before dawn so I doubt any of you caught it. Then I started leaving them and saying I would delete them later. Either they had a time sensitive stock "idea" or just something I changed my mind on later. Then people asked me to stop doing that.
I try to be more selective about what I post and make sure it has real value to learns like I do. These posts get the least Up-votes so I know they are not read as much because those are generally good "I've read this" checks to know whats popular. They are always at the bottom of the sorted lists and I'm lucky to get one comment.
But the comments I do get are usually profound ones like "I can't believe no one explained it that way to me.. I finally get it". That was me. I never got things the way other people did. Since I was a kid. I had to find people who taught me things in a way that I understood. Now I think I have advantages for the way my brain learns a little differently, whether I shaped it or not. But it doesn't make it any easier to know that when most people read your stuff they just don't care about half of it. But now I know that's them not me.
I finally realized like me, some people don't learn like I do, so this part of my content does not interest them and that's just fine with me. I really started this sub to help my fellow slow thinkers. The people who can read something like this and extrapolate some hidden value that I might be trying to get across. That's who I am anyway. And as long as every once in a while, I get a note that says I helped someone see something new for the first time, then I'll keep trying different tactics to get through to different minds. If you don't like them, just skip anything labeled "Opinion".
https://preview.redd.it/8fdwfa3dxcg51.png?width=512&format=png&auto=webp&s=80209f3941f8d6bcb5aa5be244402c8eaa88dbc8
Yesterday I posted the content from our Guest Mentor, John Chao. For our Q&A I let him do his own editing so he chose what words he bolded. The only one I added bold to out of the whole thing was this sentence that he came up with in the moment.
"To be a consistently profitable trader, we need to be disciplined like a professional athlete."
One of my favorite novels of recent years was a book called The Art of Racing In the Rain. It has since become a movie, and one I quite like. It's about a dog who's owner is a race car driver, told through the dogs perspective. The owner meets a girl and a lot happens, but without spoiling it, there's some health crisis that occurs, which is probably what made me connect to it so much.
The dog's owner, a racer named Denny Swift, is not a big guy. He wasn't in the book either. But he was sharp. Sharp physically and mentally. He was alert and wired and ready to go. But he was also cool and calm and the longer he raced the more cool and calm he appeared on the outside while on the inside he was corralled team of horses waiting to be let out to pasture whenever he needed them. All the terrible struggles and victories he faced seemed minor because he was always cool - always ready.
I had one bad group/mentor that I regret. It actually was not a bad service, but it was just pay-to-win setup. I had no control over what I bought. I did place my orders, but they picked the stocks and prices. I never took a trade for a while because it made me feel so sick. They posted winning members trades on a Facebook, sort of like I have been posting our member's great trades recently. I was sure it was a scam. I thought, they are only posting the good ones. It bet that's like 5%. I spent all my time finding new ways to get angry at other people, when I was just angry at myself for wasting all this money that I was already hurting for from a horrible loss streak.
I actually have been angry about that until this morning when I was talking to a new member about possibly posting a good trade she had, but she wanted to "wait for a better one". (Good for you!) In the shower this morning, my best slow thinking time of day, I asked myself, am I just like that guy who ran that service? I don't charge money but the effect is still the same. Maybe I don't want to be famous or rich from this mentoring but I do want a big following of people committed to independence. So am I selling out in a way? I then emotionally re-processed what I went through with that paid service.
I stayed about a month, even though I paid for a year because it was 50% off, and I was not making good choices at the time. Every day I got a tip and every day I didn't take it because I felt like it was resigning to the fact that I would not make it as a trader. I went to the Facebook every day and kept reading those winning trade recaps. I was furious. I wanted my money back but I knew I made the decision and it was one I wanted to live with. After a couple weeks I took one trade. I made back all the money I paid for the course and deleted my account. This was less than 5 years ago
That was the last time I spent money on anything that I did not know exactly what it was and how it would help me be independent. I did not resign myself again after that day though I came close many times again. I took desperate measures to get back above PDT and it hurt but I did it. I can feel my heart rate increasing as I type this and had to get up to walk around, that's how traumatic it was. I had already taken some really quality education before this, for over a year. I already knew cycles, waves, divergences. I knew how to race. I just hadn't done it enough and thought I should be Denny Swift, the racer from the book, without having his ten thousand laps.
To me the stock market is a race track. The scans I give out, or watchlists anyone else does, are race cars. They are great tools in the right hands, but like a new racer who's tires were not changed by a team the driver trusts, they are just as likely to crash it as make a clean lap. They read the books and watched the videos. But they haven't raced enough. They should have gone 5 miles and hour, but they went 60. They could gone for one lap, but they went for two. They don't have the best gear and don't even know what the best gear is. Is there even a best set of gear for everyone or do they need to study more books to find out what their best gear is? There's tons of race cars and they all work just fine. If you can't drive one yet, switching to another one won't help.
https://preview.redd.it/69y6meu09dg51.png?width=512&format=png&auto=webp&s=fecc7d6278d3d29858b617e74655a833bc183b05

I think I'm finally over that bad program I paid for at one of my lowest moment in trading. But, boy, did it take a while to figure that one out. If you took anything from this post, or are new to trying to find the hidden message then let me help you this time. Notice all the links I put about a Nobel-prize-winning-book that helps you determine if you are a slow or fast thinker and how not figuring that out can hold you back for life. Notice how I actually figured out what my most thoughtful time of day is (in the shower) and I know what to think about during those few minutes to get more out of it. I know what foods literally cause me to make poorer choices when I trade. I mention a novel I read because I thought it might be insightful to my life and now my trading. I can't race a car, I've never watched Nascar, and I rarely drive myself anymore. I have health problems that make just getting out of bed feel like a long hard race most days.
But even on my worst days, my mind is sharp. And if I'm not well enough to exercise one day, I'm probably reading about how to improve my exercise for the next day. I never miss and opportunity to improve myself and apply learning in everything I do. My mind is a corralled team of horses and I am always ready to meet a challenge with full force and commitment because I am prepared.
I was born a thoughtless baby just like you. I had more disadvantages then most but I want the mind of a racer, not that helpless trader I was a few years ago, so I work at it constantly. It's contagious and addictive and I love it so much more than sitting around waiting for things to change when I know they rarely do.
https://preview.redd.it/84but6qaadg51.png?width=512&format=png&auto=webp&s=50a3f318cc90e997572f8de4c57b4ef5dfce7eba
skotlaroc is one of our members and someone who has made more progress than most. He can't race full speed yet but his racer's mind is developing rapidly and when he's ready I am confident he will crush it. One reason he is making such progress, and others like him, though its not always apparent when we they are the ones driving, he talks to me and other trades constantly. He happens to be in Australia and trades the ASX which puts him at a huge disadvantage because he doesn't trade the tickers I talk about, his market has totally different volatility and his market opens when mine closes.
But rather than give up he learned how to drive on a wet track. Rather than be upset about the time difference he uses it to his advantage with my weird sleeping schedule. Since he is going to bed when I am waking up, he actually figured out that that my (Ryan's) slowest thinking time is before dawn and right before I turn off my screens at night so he always catches me then to get my more insightful feedback. He probably doesn't even know he did this but he knew how to get the most out of a situation by figuring it ut. He's making choices and his team of horses is growing in his mind and his car is revving up on the track. He just has to survive long enough until he can take his off the speed limit control and go full speed with a full team of horses in his engine.
https://preview.redd.it/fjodtyp2bdg51.png?width=512&format=png&auto=webp&s=805442fe7e4ecea9c742f305c7e5d1e1fc5bff11
I don't want you to think I don't have fun and just work all day. I work a lot because I love it and the only thing I do more than trade right now is this community. But I get my ego handed to me by a 10 year old every day at 3:00.

https://preview.redd.it/vlckly7c1dg51.png?width=578&format=png&auto=webp&s=b821d982fdb115b6da2a8632e803c3d0b6424a44
I bought the Cadillac of bubble machines to add excitement to our squirt gun fights.

https://preview.redd.it/ylopkn422dg51.png?width=535&format=png&auto=webp&s=e8c65e9eb8c29c637925eb07b06f39dfa824d5a8
And even go down the slide I put in last year for her.
https://preview.redd.it/9nvi0gf92dg51.png?width=633&format=png&auto=webp&s=24992c2de64986335761ee5c489e8361ef734f65
I still play first persons shooters when a good one comes out, I watched the second season of Umbrella Club twice and I probably have more THC in my blood than your teenage children.
But everything I do is deliberate and thoughtful. It doesn't mean I always work hard or work it all. I just know that life is finite and mine probably more than most. I will never again waste one minute feeling sorry for myself or blaming other people for anything when I can choose to use that time to try to resolve what got me upset in the first place.
I know most people who take my scans never look at the code to learn, even though I say this is its purpose. I know people buy things I just post a ticker of, which is why I rarely do. I see oh so many people talk to me about concepts and they are showing they understand them but then I click their names I still see them still posting on other reddit's asking complete strangers "what do you guys think about XYZ?"
https://preview.redd.it/eeoh1n0lbdg51.png?width=512&format=png&auto=webp&s=696809c70939b6d188ed61b5644b16f21d97a87d
I woke up to a new message from skotlaroc this morning before 3:00am. His market had closed so he was done for the day. I told him I was going to get some coffee and to leave me an update on his trading. He knows he is at risk of being posted about if he talks to me. just don't judge us for our typo's at that time of day.

https://preview.redd.it/kvt71c8h4dg51.png?width=1335&format=png&auto=webp&s=ae03af84799529bd4e6c3a83b575ab439436d010

You notice he doesn't tell me how much money he made or lost because I don't care what he does in a day. I care what he does in a year. What I can tell you is that is the dialogue of a racer in him. Neither of us are Denny Swift's and I might have a faster lap time, but he knows how to drive and that's all that matters. He slowed down now so he can control the car better. He can always go faster later
I've said this before, and it's not just hyperbole: the quality of people in this group and the promise of this community is far higher than anything else I have been involved in by a huge margin. I think we have a lot of real racers here. Just don't crash the car before you take your thousand laps.
Good Luck. Buckle Up.

https://preview.redd.it/d0eczm3h5dg51.png?width=300&format=png&auto=webp&s=47087cf023ff3adb8ebd31cbfbb583c86d3f8721

https://preview.redd.it/j3ojqzul5dg51.png?width=104&format=png&auto=webp&s=71c4de459ed414bd817233e86bec4efbb47bfc90


submitted by UncleRyan79 to UncleRyanAZ [link] [comments]

HPE: Transition to As-a-Service and Path to All-Time Highs

COVID-induced demand pressures for enterprise hardware and recent execution issues have HPE shares trading at 4-year lows and down 41% YTD. However, HPE-as-a-Service strategy starting to show real momentum.
Combined with advancements in edge-to-cloud infrastructure offerings, HPE among best values in large cap tech for investors looking to gain exposure to edge networking, distributed computing, and remote working trends. Here's why:
Background
What is HPE exactly? It is a question that HPE itself has found difficult to answer in the five years since splitting off from the original Hewlett Packard (HPQ). At the time of the split, HPE was more or less described as everything but the PCs and printers. It was a lot of hardware, software, services, but without a clear strategy on how to win in the age of the cloud.
As other companies from the PC era, like Microsoft, Dell, and Intel, effectively pivoted their businesses to compete in the cloud and data center, HPE experienced a combination of false starts, missteps, and inconsistent execution. Following its most recent quarterly report in May, an earnings miss coupled with a new cost-cutting initiative sent shares down 10%. And the company now trades at levels not seen since early 2016.
With HPE trading at less than 7x forward earnings, markets seem to be pricing in a low probability of a turnaround. However, despite difficulties in gaining traction as a standalone company, it may not be time to give up on HPE just yet. Revenue misses in six consecutive quarters and fears over another round of restructuring are distracting from early signs of success in HPE’s transformation to an as-a-service company.
With the mega cap and hyper-growth tech trade looking a little overheated on a valuation basis, HPE could present an attractive way to gain exposure to multiple long-term technology trends – namely edge networking, distributed computing, and remote work – while also benefiting from a stabilization and recovery in enterprise hardware IT spend once the COVID-19 induced headwinds subside.
Summary
HPE 1.0 and 2.0: How We Got Here
HPE 1.0
When HPE was still part of the combined HPE-HPQ, the company had attempted to carve out share in the public cloud and was unsuccessful. Having shuttered that business in 2015, HPE sought to position itself as a more focused and agile end-to-end infrastructure solutions company. This was the strategic rationale behind the decision to merge its enterprise services division with CSC in 2017. The resulting DXC Technology became a pure-play IT services and consulting company. HPE then sold the majority of its enterprise software, database, and analytics offerings to UK-based Micro Focus.
HPE 2.0
Around the time of the spin-merger with Micro Focus, HPE revealed its “HPE Next” strategy to fundamentally redesign the company over a three-year period. Although HPE stated its desire to streamline operations, optimize manufacturing, and improve its go-to-market approach, HPE Next was mostly workforce optimizations, or in other words: layoffs. HPE Next did contribute to improvements in EPS numbers from 1Q18 to 4Q19, but following a modest increase in revenue over the first four quarters under the plan, sales have been stagnant or lower in each of the subsequent reports.
2Q20 Earnings
As part of HPE’s 2Q20 earnings release, the company announced yet another restructuring plan aimed at conserving capital, flexibility, and liquidity given the uncertainty surrounding the global pandemic. The cost-cutting calls for at least $1bn in targeted gross savings by 2022. Together with a 15% decline in revenues year-over-year when holding for currency fluctuations, analysts were quick to issue six downgrades. These numbers do not tell the whole story though. In the face of a tough pricing environment for hardware, gross margins were stable at 32% compared to last year. And several critical business segments showed signs of relative strength in light of the broader market context.
HPE’s big data solutions grew 61% year-over-year, with storage services from the Nimble business unit jumping 20%. HPE’s edge networking segment that houses HPE Aruba only saw declines of 2%. And HPE’s flagship as-a-service offering, HPE GreenLake, saw its annual revenue run rate increase 17% to $520mn. HPE GreenLake is now the company’s best performing business according to CEO Antonio Neri. When considering HPE exited the quarter with a $1.5bn backlog, or 2x historical levels, it’s very likely that procurements were delayed or rescheduled rather than canceled. Because of this, once IT departments have greater visibility into the crisis, HPE should be poised to see a sharp recovery in its hardware-focused reporting segments.
HPE 3.0: HPE-as-a-Service
After years of difficulties defining its value proposition in the new computing landscape, HPE appears to have developed a distinct approach to leverage its networking, computing, storage, and software capabilities and bundle them into a fully integrated edge-to-cloud platform. The strategy, HPE-as-a-Service, aims to offer every single HPE product on a pay-per-use subscription basis by 2022. The company’s new IT equipment and services package, HPE GreenLake, takes a range of products selected by the customer and provides a simplified management console and on-demand toolkit for the entire hybrid cloud setup. As HPE further transitions towards the as-a-service model, HPE GreenLake, as well as its advancements in edge networking and performance computing, could lead to greater market share in multiple segments of hybrid IT spend.
HPE GreenLake
As enterprise IT becomes increasingly hybrid – i.e. a mixture of on-premise and off-premise computing power – organizations have seen management of these systems become more siloed. As a result, companies are seeing greater demands on their IT staff, inconsistent user experiences or application performance, or lower visibility or risk control across networks.
HPE GreenLake is a bundled-service offering that enables customers to select only the capabilities that they need and to deploy them faster, with less management, and at a lower CAPEX risk. Through its metering features, GreenLake makes it much easier for companies to scale computing resources up or down, thereby enhancing flexibility while also allowing IT teams to offload management of hybrid cloud resources to HPE’s operations center.
Once customers sign up for HPE GreenLake, they select from 15 cloud services like machine learning, virtual machines, big data, networking, storage, or compute. HPE promises to have the chosen services delivered and operational within 14 days. And GreenLake runs on top of existing Amazon AWS or Microsoft Azure cloud computing environments, making the transition seamless.
According to HPE, GreenLake reduces time-to-market for IT deployments by 75%, reduces CAPEX by 40% once in-use, and delivers 147% return on investment and total payback within 12 months. Improving deployment efficiencies not only conserves staffing resources and expands business productivity, it reduces the need for companies to invest in IT infrastructure before they are ready. Because HPE GreenLake is pay-per-use, customers can prevent overprovisioning of resources and eliminate expenses associated with technology refreshes, all the while ensuring adequate posture to accommodate usage spikes when on-premise compute is not sufficient. Customer satisfaction for GreenLake is extremely high, with HPE reporting 99% retention rate for contract customers currently subscribed to the platform.
The Edge, Distributed Computing, and Remote Work
Even though COVID-19 sparked some near-term challenges for enterprise hardware demand, the pandemic has also accelerated much longer-term trends related to computing and working – trends that should benefit HPE. As companies increasingly leverage computing power at the edge, and as work becomes more and more distributed and remote, the comprehensive end-to-end edge networking platform developed by HPE Aruba and recently-acquired Silver Peak could lead to share gains in multiple end markets projected to grow for the rest of the decade.
According to Cisco, by 2025, 75 billion devices will be connected to the internet. Between the combination of IoT and the growing number of user devices consuming larger amounts of content digitally, the global datasphere is forecasted to roughly triple by then. And at that time 75% of enterprise-generated data is expected to be processed at the edge. In a widely distributed computing environment with exponentially greater data loads, it will become even more vital for IT purchasers to invest in and maintain the right set of networking tools to compete in the future.
HPE Aruba
HPE Aruba provides a range of wired and wireless data center and edge networking solutions, including Wi-Fi 5 and Wi-Fi 6 products, access points and gateways, as well as network switches for both data center and edge locations. Although HPE Aruba has pushed into SD-WAN, historically its business has been driven by WAN and WLAN hardware and services. A WAN, or wide-area network (WAN) is a collection of local-area networks (LANs) or other networks that communicate with one another. A WAN is essentially a network of networks (like a much smaller internet). WLAN is simply a wireless LAN that connects computers and network devices wirelessly.
While the enterprise WLAN market actually fell 2.2% year over year in Q1 2020 due to COVID-19, WLAN is forecasted to grow at over 20% annually the next five years on the back of technology refreshes associated with the new Wi-Fi 6 standard (enterprise WLAN was a $1.3bn market in Q1) and increased adoption of Internet-of-Things (IoT) devices. And HPE Aruba is currently the #2 leader in market share at 14.4% after Cisco at 45.7%.
Perhaps where HPE Aruba is set to deliver the strongest results over the long-term, though, is in its newly announced edge networking architecture called the Edge Services Platform (ESP). Aruba ESP is the industry’s first AI-powered platform designed to unify, automate, and secure edge networking. Aruba ESP leverages artificial intelligence to simplify IT operations management as well as accelerate and automate troubleshooting in distributed IT environments. With built-in Zero Trust Security, ESP secures all access across your network. And the platform also provides unified infrastructure so that WLAN, LAN, and SD-WAN resources can be singularly monitored and optimized across branch, campus, remote, and data center locations.
This is important because the promise of the edge is in the ability to more rapidly acquire real-time data so that it can be more quickly analyzed and acted upon. By deploying integrated networking and analytics at the edge, Aruba ESP can enable businesses to optimize process efficiency, boost security, and increase reliability. This capability removes the previous need to send data to a remote data center location or third-party company for analytics.
Silver Peak
HPE’s acquisition of Silver Peak is a great strategic investment to further build out its integrated edge product portfolio. With the strength of HPE Aruba in WAN/WLAN, HPE will soon be able to offer market-leading SD-WAN solutions alongside its AI-powered intelligent edge platform, making for a very compelling and comprehensive product suite for enterprise customers.
SD-WAN, or software-define WAN, uses software to replicate (virtualize) functionalities that traditionally were housed within hardware. What this allows for is functions to then be remotely monitored and controlled. It makes network management simpler, bolsters security, and enables much more efficient network routing. Despite being one of the few remaining independent SD-WAN players, Silver Peak has carved out a spot near the top of the market.
The company counts over 1,500 customer deployments for its Unity EdgeConnect™ SD-WAN edge platform, and Silver Peak is consistently among the five largest vendors with over 7% market share in a field that includes heavyweights such as Cisco and VMware. The SD-WAN sector hit $1.9bn in 2019, but industry estimates expect it to reach $8bn by 2025 – delivering compounded annual growth of nearly 35%. Having been named by Gartner as one of two leaders (alongside Cisco) in its SD-WAN magic quadrant for two consecutive years, a combined HPE Aruba-Silver Peak solution is primed to capture even more market share for enterprise customers would like to pursue a multi-vendor strategy or diversify away from over-reliance on Cisco.
The Path to Gaining Share in Computing
Composable Infrastructure
HPE’s software-define infrastructure innovations extend to computing as well, namely with HPE Synergy which started shipping in early 2017. HPE Synergy is a new category of computing infrastructure designed to bridge non-cloud-native and cloud‐native applications. Non-cloud-native applications are applications that exist with persistent storage and usually have a fixed number of network connections. This contrasts with cloud-native applications which are designed for a cloud environment. As much as services are being shifted to the cloud, for some companies, applications have existed in non-native states for so long that it could be risky and costly to move to the cloud or could require significant time and resource planning. This is where composable infrastructure and HPE Synergy steps in.
Composable infrastructure treats compute, storage, and network devices as pools of resources that can be tactically provisioned as needed depending on the requirements of distinct workloads. It can be instantly flexed to meet the needs of any application or any workload, and it is ideal for a hybrid cloud environment. DellEMC released its version of a modular composable server halfway through 2018, and a startup named Liqid is also in the space.
Past studies have put average server utilization rates between 15-35% because typical server designs have fixed amount of resources provisioned against disparate application needs. In a study commissioned by HPE, enterprise data center respondents reported that only 45% of infrastructure was provisioned most of the time, leaving over half of a company’s valuable computing resources unused. Although converged and hyperconverged infrastructure also combine computing, networking, and storage, only composable infrastructure is not preconfigured for specific workloads. On top of that, composable is more scalable than hyperconverged which can be limited to 20-30 nodes.
HPE Synergy thus greatly reduces dedicated IT staff time to deploy servers or install firmware, increases productivity, and lowers procurement and operating costs. HPE Synergy is estimated to deliver three-to-one return-on-investment for IT customers over a five-year period. With composable infrastructure projected to follow hyperconverged systems and hit nearly $5bn in sales by 2023, Synergy could provide HPE yet another competitive product advantage to carve out share in a healthier IT hardware procurement environment.
HPE Cray Supercomputers and Big Data
In addition to traditional IT infrastructure, product advancements in high performance computing also have HPE positioned to gain new customer wins and develop the reporting segment into a larger contributor to the top line over time. Although the term supercomputing has been around for a few years, for many it continues to be an abstract or futuristic concept without tangible applications for today. But as tens of billions of internet-connected machines come online over the next decade, the amount of structured and unstructured data being generated will become that much harder to translate into valuable or actionable insights. That is why supercomputing can play a major role in solving the most data-intensive challenges facing corporations and governments worldwide.
The US and China have been engaged in heavy competition in recent years to create faster and faster supercomputers, and other countries like Japan are also starting to get involved. Currently supercomputers are used in the fields of life sciences, genomics, manufacturing, weather, and nuclear science. However, in the age of IoT and zettabyte-scale datasets, much more powerful computers will be necessary to fully take advantage of big data analytics and artificial intelligent capabilities.
The fastest exascale-class supercomputer in the world today is an HPE Cray supercomputer named El Capitan. The system, which will be delivered to the US Department of Energy’s Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory by 2023, is 10x faster than the runner-up. This market is still extremely nascent, and supercomputing is only a portion of the 9% of HPE revenues generated by the High Performance Compute & Mission Critical Systems (HPC MCS) segment’s. But as the market becomes more mature, HPE GreenLake will provide a stronger ability to cross-sell supercomputing products to very large-scale organizations – a major advantage for HPE Cray compared to when it was a standalone company.
Conclusion
Recent weakness in HPE shares following Q2 earnings have largely priced-in near-term risks associated with COVID-induced demand pressures for enterprise hardware solutions. With shares down 41% YTD, the company is trading at 6.63X forward earnings and 0.44x sales. These multiples are both among the lowest levels relative to other large cap IT hardware peers such as Dell (10.99 forward P/E), Cisco (13.81 forward P/E), or IBM (11.16 forward P/E).
Despite difficulty formulating an effective cloud strategy in the years following the split from HP, HPE has multiple growth drivers with exposure to critical long-term computing, networking, and working trends. As HPE further develops its business into a fully service-based, pay-per-use model, revenue and earnings should become increasingly stable and less subject to near-term demand shocks as has been seen so far in 2020.
Although management’s cost saving plan announced in May was poorly received by the markets, strong sales visibility by virtue of the $1.5bn quarterly contract backlog means that HPE’s struggles will likely be short-term. Combined with cost reductions, as enterprise hardware spending picks back up, the company should experience gross margin improvements, earnings growth, and multiple expansion.
Together with the more targeted approach as an edge-to-cloud infrastructure service provider, HPE currently presents one of the best values in large cap tech for investors looking to gain exposure to edge networking, distributed computing, and remote working trends over the next 5-10 years.
You can find me on Twitter @BlackjacketCo where I write about emerging technologies and long-term market trends. Thanks for reading!
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Margin Trading  Trading Terms - YouTube How To Get The LOWEST Cryptocurrency Trading Fee BOLLINGER BANDS AND MACD INTRADAY STRATEGY The Best Ways To Get The Lowest HELOC Rate - YouTube Using Margin Interest Rates to Day Trade

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Margin Trading Trading Terms - YouTube

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