The Best Automated Trading Software for 2020 • Benzinga

Crypto Tax Software that supports Bitmex Margin trading?

I need one that's affordable under $500. Currently paying $1500
submitted by PCftwConsoleFTL to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

06-23 21:44 - 'Crypto Tax Software that supports Bitmex Margin trading?' (self.Bitcoin) by /u/PCftwConsoleFTL removed from /r/Bitcoin within 112-122min

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Paying $1500/year with tokentax. Does anyone know one that's more affordable? :(
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Crypto Tax Software that supports Bitmex Margin trading?
Go1dfish undelete link
unreddit undelete link
Author: PCftwConsoleFTL
submitted by removalbot to removalbot [link] [comments]

Leverage Exchange Software | Margin Trading Exchange Development

submitted by AnnaLisbeth to AppDevelopment [link] [comments]

looking for tax software that supports margin trading and unlimited trades

those are my 2 big requirements, can't find anything that works. need to support 50k+ trades as well as margin trading on bitmex, deribit, okex
submitted by I_SUCK__AMA to CryptoTax [link] [comments]

Can you margin trade using P2P software?

submitted by xmr-rusticbison to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Cryptocurrency Software for Margin Trades and Shorts?

Is there a software or platform that can [properly] calculate and populate Form 8949 for cryptocurrency margin trades? Apparently most software cannot handle margin trades.
submitted by ISO_Answers1 to tax [link] [comments]

The biggest threat to bitcoin is not a software update, but Bitfinex and its reckless margin trading

It is now suffiently clear that margin trading at Bitfinex caused the flash crash that brough the price of bitcoin down 14% in a few minutes.
For those of you who claim Bitcoin XT is to blame for the price drop, here is a history lesson:
On August 14 2014, just a year an 4 days before yesterday's crash, Bitfinex had a major flash crash that brough down the price of bitcoin 10%.
CoinDesk did an article on it:
http://www.coindesk.com/margin-trading-crash-price-bitcoin/
The price fell from 539 dollars to 451 within minutes.
Just like in yesterday's crash, the culprit was reckless margin trading. I quote:
This theory, perhaps most notably posed by Raffael Danielli, posits that out-of-control margin trading caused a flash crash in at least one major bitcoin exchange market, a development that had a cascading effect across the larger bitcoin market.
In the post on his quantitative analysis blog Matlab Trading, Danielli asserts that margin traders, specifically those on Hong Kong-based bitcoin trading platform Bitfinex, had invested significant funds into long positions as bullish sentiment rose in July.
The price fell to 300 in January 2015. Then, a hack to Bitstamp brough it down to under 170 dollars to bounce back to over 200.
Sometime in April the price had a short fall to 220-ish because of some issues at OK Coin that were resolved without any more negative effects.
By July 2015, the price reached 315 dollars and then it fell to 275 two days later and to 265 in the next few weeks.
Nobody claimed the culprit was a fork even though the drop was steeper than yesterday's.
So now we have two instances of margin trading causing major price falls in about a year, and two cases of software issues (Bitstamp hack and OK Coin not able to stop a bad trade) causing a price drop.
Bitstamp solved its problem by migrating to another server. OK Coin solved its issue with code. But Bitfinex has done nothig about its reckless margin trading.
As long as Bitfinex allows its reckless margin trading to continue, the entire bitcoin market will be at risk. Not because of block size, or because of a fork, or any other technical issue that can be solved with code, but because of greed. Greed and a complete disregard for the helath of the bitcoin ecosystem.
Quite frankly, bitcoin's deflationary design should be incentive enough to buy it and hold it. Margin trading is not giving bitcoin added value; it's putting people's money at risk.
The guy who used Satoshi Nakamoto's account to criticize XT is dead wrong if he thinks bitcoin will be a failed project because of XT. It will be a failed project if people do not want to embrace bitcoin because Bitfinex is allowing a few greedy margin traders to sink the value of bitcoin.
submitted by toliro to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

The biggest threat to bitcoin is not a software update, but Bitfinex and its reckless margin trading

The biggest threat to bitcoin is not a software update, but Bitfinex and its reckless margin trading submitted by coincrazyy to BitcoinAll [link] [comments]

RKT: The Next 10 Bagger MEME Stock 🚀

RKT: The Next 10 Bagger MEME Stock 🚀
You might want to say: "Retard, there have been at least a dozen posts about RKT already." Well, there is some itsy bitsy tiny bit of new information...

Hold on to your butts 🚀

Yes, you might have seen the stock price climb to ~$26 after IPO and fall back to $19 and not listened to this brilliant retard telling you not to sell the GODDAM stock. Maybe because you have read the "sEeKinG alPhA aNaLysT" giving it a "meh" rating.
Well, in an effort to give you another chance on those sweet tendies, Rocket announced pre-earnings numbers, before the actual earnings date of September 2. This is what it looks like:
  • Quarterly earnings are up by 125% from the previous year with quarterly revenue of $5.31 billion. On an adjusted basis revenue is up by 300% over last year. The full report is here.
  • Adjusted net income is $2.8 billion, which is an increase of $2.2 billion compared to the first quarter of 2020 and $2.6 billion compared to the second quarter of 2019. For the accountants among you, the full set of numbers are here.
  • To put numbers into perspective this is a company with $2.4 billion float according to Google.
  • The stock was up 11.22% today and trading at around $23.8 at market close.

What does this all mean?

  • This is the parent company of Quicken Loans, it is essentially a FinTec company for mortgage refinancing, etc. Some argue that it is actually a tech company. They handle pretty much everything electronically via their website and app. This is important because of COVID-19. According to online reviews, they have one of the best-streamlined and user-friendly interfaces. You can do pretty much everything regarding financing your home without having to sit in a crowded office in your facemask.
  • Because of how user-friendly their apps are, they have sweet sweet margins: "Who is going to do DD on home mortgages when you can do everything on an app. Am I right?"
  • Interest rates are extremely low due to Fed intervention and it is to remain low for a very long while. Remember the famous quote from our lord and savior JPow: "We're not thinking about raising rates, we're not even thinking about thinking about raising rates." For this reason, everyone and their mum are doing refinancing, buying homes, etc.
  • With a float of $2.4 billion, the company can have VERY significant price changes in a short time.
  • RKT is the ultimate meme ticker. "RKT to the moon 🚀" and "REKT 🔥" memes will keep us entertained for years to come while providing free advertisement for the company.
  • This is basically TurboTax of mortgages which is a multi-trillion dollar market.

FAQ for 🌈🐻

Q: But what if the interest rates go back up tomorrow?
A: It won't, as that would collapse the S&P 500 overnight. They have to keep interest rates low so that the money stays in the stock market.

Q: This sounds like the next subprime mortgage crisis. What if people start defaulting on their mortgages?
A: They are not the ones lending the money, so they don't care. They package the mortgages and hand it to someone else. They keep mortgages for only 3 weeks on average during the process, then they are off the hook.

Q: Aren't there other mortgage companies with online services?
A: Yes, but nothing this streamlined and easy to use. And they have very good brand recognition with the Rocket brand and Quicken Loans. Again, it is like TurboTax: yes there is other tax software out there, but who cares?

Q: But the stock price does not reflect the fundamentals. Didn't it crash last week and then stall?
A: Yes there was some price discovery after IPO and you would have been right up until Monday of this week. But since the pre-earnings announcement, the stock price is picking up some serious steam. Once the mainstream media catches on and price exceeds the ATH (probably tomorrow), this will go to the moon. If this does not look like a RKT platform I do not know what does:
https://preview.redd.it/lyevy8wx6bi51.png?width=1260&format=png&auto=webp&s=10da2d7c8be7d4a83c0b798c16aafaa94bacfc20

The Play

Just stop reading and load up the cart already.
submitted by Zaratar to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

A guide for those looking to invest in Renewable Energy. (My Renewable portfolio with DD)

I've dedicated a large percentage of my portfolio to renewable energy companies and have obtained some knowledge on the sector and specific companies in doing so. I've noticed a trend of people inquiring about these companies so I hope that this post can provide some information.
I'll provide a brief bullish thesis and some information about my investments in renewables. These are in order of weight in my portfolio.
Tesla (TSLA) (511% gain)
Most of us know what Tesla is about. They are the global leader in electric vehicles and will eventually come out with autonomous driving but I'll focus on their energy business. They sell solar panels with the lowest cost/watt of U.S. manufacturers, but this isn't the exciting part of their energy business. They are a leader in battery storage, which is an integral part of a renewable future. Energy storage systems store energy produced from solar panels and when the sun isn't shining, energy is consumed from the batteries instead. Also their autobidder software, which is out in trial in Massachusetts and Australia I believe, eventually will turn energy into a market place for Tesla customers. Read more about autobidder here: https://www.tesla.com/support/autobidder
My bull case for Tesla (specifically the energy side of the business) is that they will continue to innovate with their low cost panels, and be a leader in battery storage, plus leverage their autobidder software to bring added value to residential customers.
Vestas Wind Systems (VWDRY) (91.4% gain)
https://www.vestas.com/~/media/vestas/investoinvestor%20pdf/financial%20reports/2020/q2/2020%20q2_pres.pdf
Vestas is the leading manufacturer and installer of wind turbines. They have a global footprint and are expected to grow in line with the growth of the wind industry as a whole. A major growth engine in their business is going to be their expanding service and maintenance business, which has very high margins. My bull case for Vestas is that they are a unique pure play wind turbine company with years of experience in the growing industry.
First Solar (FSLR). (24% gain)
First Solar is an American based solar module manufacturing and solar project operating company. Most of their business comes from corporate and grid level solar projects. Notably, they have Next Era Energy, Microsoft and Apple as customers. The real bullish case behind First Solar is around their differentiated Cadmium Telluride solar modules. Compared to the standard Crystalline silicon technology, First Solar's modules last longer and produce energy at higher efficiencies in hotter climates.
My bull case for First Solar is around their differentiated technology, strong balance sheet, and position as an American company, which typically warrants a higher P/E ratio than foreign companies.
Jinko Solar (JKS) (22% gain)
https://ir.jinkosolar.com/static-files/5a6d9266-d288-4ece-a0ea-f8e49ff60119
Jinko Solar is a leader is a Chinese based solar panel manufacturer. They produce low cost modules and also manage solar projects. Their business model is similar to First Solar's, however they trade at a cheaper valuation, due to being a Chinese company. You can read more about their technology on their investor relations page, but my main bull case for this company is around their position in South East Asia as a leading manufacturer, as this is undoubtably the biggest potential market for solar energy.
Canadian Solar (CSIQ) (27.5% gain)
http://investors.canadiansolar.com/events
Canadian Solar is also a leader in the module manufacturing & project development business. They have a similar business model with Jinko and First Solar. Canadian Solar owns equity stakes in several of their solar projects, which gives them a source of recurring revenue. They also have a large footprint in American grid/commercial systems and are a market leader in North America. They trade at an absurdly low 5 P/E ratio despite significant growth expectations in the coming years.
My bull case for CSIQ is around their ability to dominate the current market and potential to capitalize off of further market growth and consolidation towards the biggest solar companies. Also their current valuation is very intriguing.
SolarEdge (SEDG) (126% gain)
https://investors.solaredge.com/
SolarEdge is the global leader in the Inverter space, with a 60% U.S. market share. For those who don't know, Inverter's turn the D.C. electrical current from the sun into an A.C. current, which is used by households. The inverter business is also much higher margin than the module (panel) business, due to there being fewer players in the industry. They are also expanding into energy storage and electric vehicle manufacturing.
My bull case around SolarEdge is around their market dominance in the Solar Inverter business, which will grow exponentially in the coming years plus future expansion in storage & EVs. They have a very strong management team as well.
TPI composites (TPIC). (70.55% gain)
https://ir.tpicomposites.com/download/companies/tpicomposites/Supplements/TPI%20Earnings%20Deck%202Q20.pdf
TPI composites manufacturers wind blades and sells them to wind turbine companies. They have long term contracts with the top 5 non Chinese wind turbine companies (Vestas, GE, Siemens, Nordex & Enercon.) 63% of total wind blade manufacturing is outsourced to companies like TPI and they are the market leader in this space with about 20% market share globally. The business currently has low margins, but they target a 12% EBITDA margin for the future, and they trade at a measly 0.74 P/S ratio currently. They are also expanding into EV composite manufacturing and have a contract with a certain EV company that I can't mention on this subreddit apparently (DM if you want more info) to manufacture vehicle parts for them.
Enphase Energy (ENPH) (46% gain)
https://investor.enphase.com/static-files/81902e59-7d61-4693-aa86-8d54e63975b9
Enphase is the sole producer of Microinverters, which are smaller inverters that go on individual panels and provide a safer, more efficient, but more expensive solution than the standard string inverters. Microinverters are used in smaller solar systems, mostly residential. They also have an energy storage business that is just starting to scale. Enphase and SolarEdge are competitors in both of these spaces, and are expected to be major players in the future. Like SolarEdge, Enphases' inverter business is high margin and expects rapid future growth, as the residential solar market grows.
My bullish case around Enphase is around their Microinverter technology, potential for expansion into storage and unique Ensamble home energy management system (read about Ensamble on the Investor relations page).
Brookfield Renewables (BEPC). (12% gain)
https://bep.brookfield.com/~/media/Files/B/Brookfield-BEP-IR-V2/events-and-presentations/bep-investor-brochure-q1-2020-vf.pdf
Brookfield Renewables owns and operates renewable energy systems and projects. They sell energy produced from such systems to utility companies and have a recurring revenue stream. They also pay a 3.73% dividend yield. Their investments are split between Hydroelectric, solar and wind.
My bullish thesis around BEPC is the consistent cash flow positive revenue stream and relative safety in the business model. Also, they provide me with exposure to hydroelectric energy.
Let me know if you have any comments, hold, or plan to buy any of these companies!
NOTE: I'm 19 years old and have a 5-10 year+ timeline for holding/buying into all of these companies
PS: These are not all of my holdings, just the renewable energy portion of my portfolio. (which including Tesla makes up more than half, exluding Tesla about 1/4)
submitted by Evil____ to stocks [link] [comments]

Shut up and take my money, or, why does Steam make game discovery so damn hard?

I came across this article over at PC Gamer last week, and it got me thinking to share it and my own thoughts with you guys. From said article:
Here’s what I want Steam to be: a place where I can easily and conveniently find games I wish to buy, buy them, and access them. I do not believe Valve and I’s outlook on this aligns.
Valve seem to have some small interest in Steam performing these functions, but a much greater excitement for layering endless experimental systems on top of each other. The act of buying and playing games must itself be gamified from every possible angle.
Over the years, it’s introduced trading cards, badges, and a marketplace for in-game items. It’s given us countless different kinds of fake money, earned by spending real money, usually to be spent on stickers, emotes, profile backgrounds, and other gew-gaws I couldn’t even be confident in the function of.
...And as these experiments rumble on and mutate into ever less necessary forms, Valve neglects the core experience. The store is less usable now than it’s ever been, utterly clogged with nonsense and shovelware with incredibly poor moderation. Efforts to tailor the experience algorithmically have created more problems than they’ve solved, making it increasingly difficult to get to the page you actually want, rather than the one Steam thinks you’d like.
The last paragraph hits right on the nose the issue I've had with Steam for literally years. Back around 2008 when I first started buying games there, it was a pretty tightly curated market space with clearly delineated categories of games. A racing game was always just in the "Racing" category. Action games were under "Action" and simulations were under, you guessed it, "Simulation".
Later, with the opening of the marketplace directly to developers, categories went away to be replaced by tags. Sure, you can still open a category and see things listed under it. But the difference between a category and a tag is that a game belongs in just one category or another, whereas tags are applied even if it only applies loosely to one small part of the game.
What happens then is this: You open up a category and look at the top ten or twenty games there. Now, go to another category, and most of the top games there were in the previous one, too. At one point, Arma 3 (A game I financially became a "supporter" of before its release) appeared near the top of the lists for Action, Adventure, Massively Multiplayer, Simulation, Strategy, and, thanks to the April Fool's offering of the Karts DLC, under Racing. What is even the point of categories now? Smaller studios should hate this too, because it makes getting visibility even in a niche market very difficult.
Ten years ago, I bought a lot more games than I have in the last few. By a huge margin. Because I could open the Steam Store and discover things I may never have heard of that looked cool as hell, and often really was. I may be an exception, but now I find being brow-beat with the same games no matter what I'm actually looking for to be just exhausting. I can't count how many times I've been on Steam, virtual cash in hand, looking for anything interesting to pick up, and given up after ten or twenty minutes of seeing the same old things mixed with shovelware and novelty games that haven't gotten enough negative reviews to sink them yet. Valve should be alarmed by this, because that's literally an easy sale that was thwarted by a terrible shopping experience. I'm genuinely envious of people with long backlogs of games.
As a software engineer, I love algorithms, the more clever the better. But Steam's algos fall so far short of real, human curation that it's just sad. They have added other users you can follow as "curators" but those mostly seem to be joke accounts, and even the serious ones don't seem to do much more than skim the known surface of the gaming landscape.
And don't get me started on the change to screenshot thumbnails instead of text descriptions of the game when you hover over them on the store page, making you have to click through to find out what the game is all about...
submitted by EndlessEmergency to truegaming [link] [comments]

[NYTimes] Sources describe horror stories of young and inexperienced investors on Robinhood, many engaging in riskier trades at far higher volumes than at other firms

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/08/technology/robinhood-risky-trading.html
Richard Dobatse, a Navy medic in San Diego, dabbled infrequently in stock trading. But his behavior changed in 2017 when he signed up for Robinhood, a trading app that made buying and selling stocks simple and seemingly free.
Mr. Dobatse, now 32, said he had been charmed by Robinhood’s one-click trading, easy access to complex investment products, and features like falling confetti and emoji-filled phone notifications that made it feel like a game. After funding his account with $15,000 in credit card advances, he began spending more time on the app.
As he repeatedly lost money, Mr. Dobatse took out two $30,000 home equity loans so he could buy and sell more speculative stocks and options, hoping to pay off his debts. His account value shot above $1 million this year — but almost all of that recently disappeared. This week, his balance was $6,956.
“When he is doing his trading, he won’t want to eat,” said his wife, Tashika Dobatse, with whom he has three children. “He would have nightmares.”
Millions of young Americans have begun investing in recent years through Robinhood, which was founded in 2013 with a sales pitch of no trading fees or account minimums. The ease of trading has turned it into a cultural phenomenon and a Silicon Valley darling, with the start-up climbing to an $8.3 billion valuation. It has been one of the tech industry’s biggest growth stories in the recent market turmoil.
But at least part of Robinhood’s success appears to have been built on a Silicon Valley playbook of behavioral nudges and push notifications, which has drawn inexperienced investors into the riskiest trading, according to an analysis of industry data and legal filings, as well as interviews with nine current and former Robinhood employees and more than a dozen customers. And the more that customers engaged in such behavior, the better it was for the company, the data shows.
Thanks for reading The Times. Subscribe to The Times More than at any other retail brokerage firm, Robinhood’s users trade the riskiest products and at the fastest pace, according to an analysis of new filings from nine brokerage firms by the research firm Alphacution for The New York Times.
In the first three months of 2020, Robinhood users traded nine times as many shares as E-Trade customers, and 40 times as many shares as Charles Schwab customers, per dollar in the average customer account in the most recent quarter. They also bought and sold 88 times as many risky options contracts as Schwab customers, relative to the average account size, according to the analysis.
The more often small investors trade stocks, the worse their returns are likely to be, studies have shown. The returns are even worse when they get involved with options, research has found.
This kind of trading, where a few minutes can mean the difference between winning and losing, was particularly hazardous on Robinhood because the firm has experienced an unusual number of technology issues, public records show. Some Robinhood employees, who declined to be identified for fear of retaliation, said the company failed to provide adequate guardrails and technology to support its customers.
Those dangers came into focus last month when Alex Kearns, 20, a college student in Nebraska, killed himself after he logged into the app and saw that his balance had dropped to negative $730,000. The figure was high partly because of some incomplete trades.
“There was no intention to be assigned this much and take this much risk,” Mr. Kearns wrote in his suicide note, which a family member posted on Twitter.
Like Mr. Kearns, Robinhood’s average customer is young and lacks investing know-how. The average age is 31, the company said, and half of its customers had never invested before.
Some have visited Robinhood’s headquarters in Menlo Park, Calif., in recent years to confront the staff about their losses, said four employees who witnessed the incidents. This year, they said, the start-up installed bulletproof glass at the front entrance.
“They encourage people to go from training wheels to driving motorcycles,” Scott Smith, who tracks brokerage firms at the financial consulting firm Cerulli, said of Robinhood. “Over the long term, it’s like trying to beat the casino.”
At the core of Robinhood’s business is an incentive to encourage more trading. It does not charge fees for trading, but it is still paid more if its customers trade more.
That’s because it makes money through a complex practice known as “payment for order flow.” Each time a Robinhood customer trades, Wall Street firms actually buy or sell the shares and determine what price the customer gets. These firms pay Robinhood for the right to do this, because they then engage in a form of arbitrage by trying to buy or sell the stock for a profit over what they give the Robinhood customer.
This practice is not new, and retail brokers such as E-Trade and Schwab also do it. But Robinhood makes significantly more than they do for each stock share and options contract sent to the professional trading firms, the filings show.
For each share of stock traded, Robinhood made four to 15 times more than Schwab in the most recent quarter, according to the filings. In total, Robinhood got $18,955 from the trading firms for every dollar in the average customer account, while Schwab made $195, the Alphacution analysis shows. Industry experts said this was most likely because the trading firms believed they could score the easiest profits from Robinhood customers.
Vlad Tenev, a founder and co-chief executive of Robinhood, said in an interview that even with some of its customers losing money, young Americans risked greater losses by not investing in stocks at all. Not participating in the markets “ultimately contributed to the sort of the massive inequalities that we’re seeing in society,” he said.
Mr. Tenev said only 12 percent of the traders active on Robinhood each month used options, which allow people to bet on where the price of a specific stock will be on a specific day and multiply that by 100. He said the company had added educational content on how to invest safely.
He declined to comment on why Robinhood makes more than its competitors from the Wall Street firms. The company also declined to comment on Mr. Dobatse or provide data on its customers’ performance.
Robinhood does not force people to trade, of course. But its success at getting them do so has been highlighted internally. In June, the actor Ashton Kutcher, who has invested in Robinhood, attended one of the company’s weekly staff meetings on Zoom and celebrated its success by comparing it to gambling websites, said three people who were on the call.
Mr. Kutcher said in a statement that his comment “was not intended to be a comparison of business models nor the experience Robinhood provides its customers” and that it referred “to the current growth metrics.” He added that he was “absolutely not insinuating that Robinhood was a gambling platform.”
ImageRobinhood’s co-founders and co-chief executives, Baiju Bhatt, left, and Vlad Tenev, created the company to make investing accessible to everyone. Robinhood’s co-founders and co-chief executives, Baiju Bhatt, left, and Vlad Tenev, created the company to make investing accessible to everyone.Credit...via Reuters Robinhood was founded by Mr. Tenev and Baiju Bhatt, two children of immigrants who met at Stanford University in 2005. After teaming up on several ventures, including a high-speed trading firm, they were inspired by the Occupy Wall Street movement to create a company that would make finance more accessible, they said. They named the start-up Robinhood after the English outlaw who stole from the rich and gave to the poor.
Robinhood eliminated trading fees while most brokerage firms charged $10 or more for a trade. It also added features to make investing more like a game. New members were given a free share of stock, but only after they scratched off images that looked like a lottery ticket.
The app is simple to use. The home screen has a list of trendy stocks. If a customer touches one of them, a green button pops up with the word “trade,” skipping many of the steps that other firms require.
Robinhood initially offered only stock trading. Over time, it added options trading and margin loans, which make it possible to turbocharge investment gains — and to supersize losses.
The app advertises options with the tagline “quick, straightforward & free.” Customers who want to trade options answer just a few multiple-choice questions. Beginners are legally barred from trading options, but those who click that they have no investing experience are coached by the app on how to change the answer to “not much” experience. Then people can immediately begin trading.
Before Robinhood added options trading in 2017, Mr. Bhatt scoffed at the idea that the company was letting investors take uninformed risks.
“The best thing we can say to those people is ‘Just do it,’” he told Business Insider at the time.
In May, Robinhood said it had 13 million accounts, up from 10 million at the end of 2019. Schwab said it had 12.7 million brokerage accounts in its latest filings; E-Trade reported 5.5 million.
That growth has kept the money flowing in from venture capitalists. Sequoia Capital and New Enterprise Associates are among those that have poured $1.3 billion into Robinhood. In May, the company received a fresh $280 million.
“Robinhood has made the financial markets accessible to the masses and, in turn, revolutionized the decades-old brokerage industry,” Andrew Reed, a partner at Sequoia, said after last month’s fund-raising.
Image Robinhood shows users that its options trading is free of commissions. Robinhood shows users that its options trading is free of commissions. Mr. Tenev has said Robinhood has invested in the best technology in the industry. But the risks of trading through the app have been compounded by its tech glitches.
In 2018, Robinhood released software that accidentally reversed the direction of options trades, giving customers the opposite outcome from what they expected. Last year, it mistakenly allowed people to borrow infinite money to multiply their bets, leading to some enormous gains and losses.
Robinhood’s website has also gone down more often than those of its rivals — 47 times since March for Robinhood and 10 times for Schwab — according to a Times analysis of data from Downdetector.com, which tracks website reliability. In March, the site was down for almost two days, just as stock prices were gyrating because of the coronavirus pandemic. Robinhood’s customers were unable to make trades to blunt the damage to their accounts.
Four Robinhood employees, who declined to be identified, said the outage was rooted in issues with the company’s phone app and servers. They said the start-up had underinvested in technology and moved too quickly rather than carefully.
Mr. Tenev said he could not talk about the outage beyond a company blog post that said it was “not acceptable.” Robinhood had recently made new technology investments, he said.
Plaintiffs who have sued over the outage said Robinhood had done little to respond to their losses. Unlike other brokers, the company has no phone number for customers to call.
Mr. Dobatse suffered his biggest losses in the March outage — $860,000, his records show. Robinhood did not respond to his emails, he said, adding that he planned to take his case to financial regulators for arbitration.
“They make it so easy for people that don’t know anything about stocks,” he said. “Then you go there and you start to lose money.”
submitted by jayatum to investing [link] [comments]

Oil Crash Busted Broker's Computers and Inflicted Big Losses

Oil Crash Busted Broker's Computers and Inflicted Big Losses
(Bloomberg) — Syed Shah usually buys and sells stocks and currencies through his Interactive Brokers account, but he couldn’t resist trying his hand at some oil trading on April 20, the day prices plunged below zero for the first time ever. The day trader, working from his house in a Toronto suburb, figured he couldn’t lose as he spent $2,400 snapping up crude at $3.30 a barrel, and then 50 cents. Then came what looked like the deal of a lifetime: buying 212 futures contracts on West Texas Intermediate for an astonishing penny each.
What he didn’t know was oil’s first trip into negative pricing had broken Interactive Brokers Group Inc. Its software couldn’t cope with that pesky minus sign, even though it was always technically possible — though this was an outlandish idea before the pandemic — for the crude market to go upside down. Crude was actually around negative $3.70 a barrel when Shah’s screen had it at 1 cent. Interactive Brokers never displayed a subzero price to him as oil kept diving to end the day at minus $37.63 a barrel.
At midnight, Shah got the devastating news: he owed Interactive Brokers $9 million. He’d started the day with $77,000 in his account.
submitted by kim82351 to investing [link] [comments]

BULLISH $SQ $DKNG $BA Option Plays [07/21/2020]

BULLISH $SQ $DKNG $BA Option Plays [07/21/2020]
Recap
Previous Research:
https://www.reddit.com/options/comments/hrbexa/bullish_options_plays_24_month_horizon/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x
https://www.reddit.com/options/comments/huwfat/short_long_option_plays_07202020/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x
This post covers Option Plays for $SQ, $DKNG, $BA
The time frame of these options are 3-6 months out, to avoid Theta burn and maximize ITM potential. The beauty of long plays is that the stock only needs to move a few % to be profitable, with a long time horizon as a hedge. Close the position within 2-4 months to minimize theta and maximize delta opportunity. I have also included a shorter time frame with higher risk/reward and lower premiums. Short plays are laid out, but not recommended.
1) Square, Inc $SQ [Information Technology Services] - BULLISH
Square, Inc. engages in the provision of credit card payment processing solutions. It is a cohesive commerce ecosystem that helps sellers start, run, and grow their businesses. The firms sellers downloads the Square Point of Sale mobile app, they can quickly and easily take their first payment, typically within minutes.
Bullish Square Case:
The ongoing shift toward electronic payments has created, and will continue to create, room for acquirers to see strong growth without stealing share from each other.
Ancillary services are becoming a more critical engine for growth and will help Square fully monetize its merchant client base and improve margins.
Electronic payment growth is shifting overseas, and Square’s business model looks portable into international markets, as the company does not rely on a large local salesforce to attract merchants.
$SQ profile, from FindMarketPlays early access platform
In both previous research posts, I discussed the bullish case of Twitter hinging on a successful subscription platform.
Source: https://www.theverge.com/2020/7/8/21317266/twitter-subscription-platform-codename-gryphon-job-listing
Subscription platforms require a reliable payment processor. Guess who Dorsey is going to choose to process payments for Twitter's subscription platform?
$SQ overlaid with $SHOP, following the same trajectory
$SHOP is trading at a 69x Price to Revenue multiple, with -$1.16 EPS. $SQ is trading at a 11x Price to Revenue multiple, with $0.72 EPS. Not only is $SQ profitable, it is in a similar niche to $SHOP and has a huge growth opportunity with Twitter's subscription platform.
Let's take a look at the unusual options activity scanner:
$2 Million in $97.5 calls, expiring Aug 21. Earnings Aug 5
$190 Jan 15 Calls
$100 Jan 15 Calls
Big bullish bets on $SQ, notably dated around Jan 15. Coincidentally, that is the timeframe I pegged for $TWTR $40 Calls, and for the Subscription platform to be announced.
Personal Experience: I set up a Shopify site for a girl I know who started a brick-and-mortar clothing store. She is... technologically challenged, to say the least. Guess what she used for payments in retail? Square. Even with Shopify's poor integration with Square, she stuck with it (Against my advice for inventory & tracking purposes). As states reopen, and smaller brick and mortars are back, farmers markets, carnivals, etc, expect growth from $SQ.
I am eyeing a $118-$122 entry to incorporate the stock into my portfolio, and purchase options.
With this information, I propose:
Short Term Play [HIGH RISK]:
SQ $130c Aug 7 2020, trading at $6.57 at time of writing. 41% Probability ITM. Earnings Aug 05 2020.
Long Term Play:
SQ $160c Jan 15 2021, trading $11.03 at time of writing. 23% Probability ITM
2) DraftKings, Inc $DKNG [Internet Software/Services] - BULLISH
DraftKings, Inc. operates as a digital sports entertainment and gaming company. It provides online and retail sports wagering offerings, online daily fantasy contests and online casino games.
$DKNG profile, from FindMarketPlays early access platform
Currently, only 5 states have legal online gambling [Delaware, Nevada, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia]. 23 states have Sports Betting legal and or in legislation.
From https://investmentu.com/sports-betting-stocks/
Focus on casino gambling!
You can gamble at a casino whether there are sports on or not, and the following states are most likely to legalize online casino gambling in the next 12 months [based on legislation]:
  • California [40 Million Population]
  • Connecticut [3.6 Million Population]
  • Illinois [13 Million Population]
  • Indiana [6.6 Million Population]
  • Massachusetts [6.8 Million Population]
  • Nevada [2.8 Million Population]
  • New York [20 Million Population]
These states represent 92.8 Million people, or 30% of the US population.
Source: https://www.bettingusa.com/states/
$DKNG overlaid with $PENN, following the same trajectory
52 Week high for $DKNG is $44. With Americans sitting at home, legalizing online gambling makes sense financially for governments and to satiate the appetite of the restless, short-attention span population.
Let's take a look at the unusual options activity scanner:
A stream of bullish plays, ranging from $30 to $40, expiring July 24 and Aug 21.
$DKNG is both a stock and option play. I am eyeing a $28-$30 entry to incorporate the stock into my portfolio, and purchase options.
Personal Experience: A buddy of mine ran an (illegal) sports book in college, and netted 6 figures over the course of four years. Tons of potential tax dollars on the line.
With this information, I propose:
Short Term Play [HIGH RISK]:
DKNG $40 Aug 21 2020, trading at $3.50 at time of writing. 36.5% Probability ITM. Earnings Aug 13 2020.\*21,690 open interest in this position, which would control 2.2 MILLION Shares*\**
Long Term Play:
DKNG $45c Jan 15 2021, trading $6.70 at time of writing. 28% Probability ITM
3) Boeing, Co $BA [Aerospace & Defense] - BULLISH
Boeing is the cornerstone of millions of stock portfolios. I remember hawking the stock price while on vacation in Paris, when the plane crashed in March '19. My ex was pissed. I was more pissed for not picking up some stock and options when it bottomed around $100 a few months ago.
Bullish Boeing case:
Boeing has a large backlog that covers several years of production for the most popular aircraft, which gives us confidence in aggregate demand for aerospace products.
Boeing is well-positioned to benefit from emerging market growth in revenue passenger kilometers and a robust developed market replacement cycle over the next two decades.
We expect that commercial airframe manufacturing will remain a duopoly over the foreseeable future. We think customers will not have many options other than continuing to rely on incumbent aircraft suppliers.
$BA profile, from FindMarketPlays early access platform
COVID-19 has been a blessing in disguise for $BA. COVID-19 gifted $BA time, the most important thing they needed to fix their issues. Airlines are not flying, so it is excusable for $BA to have cancelled orders. Finally, as long as the oil-based dollar is the global currency, $BA will be in business selling weapons.
$BA overlaid with $RTX, another major defense contractor.
Despite the airline issues, $BA is tracking $RTX, because defense is where the big money is.
Let's take a look at the unusual options activity scanner:
$1.3 Million in $195 Sept 18 Calls
$800K in $180 Aug 21 Calls
Earnings is July 29th, but this is not an earnings play. The stock is consolidating in the $170-$180 range, a huge support and resistance in 2020. I am eyeing a $165-$170 entry to incorporate the stock into my portfolio, and purchase options.
With this information, I propose:
Short Term Play [HIGH RISK]:
BA $200c Oct 16 2020, trading at $14.01 at time of writing. 31% Probability ITM.
Long Term Play:
BA $240c Jun 18 2021, trading $18.75 at time of writing. 20% Probability ITM
Conclusion
Based on my research, $SQ stands to gain from $TWTR news, $DKNG is poised to dominate online gambling, $BA is slowly recovering, and will not fail.
TL,DR:
Short Term Play [HIGH RISK]:
SQ $130c Aug 7 2020, trading at $6.57 at time of writing. 41% Probability ITM. Earnings Aug 05 2020.
DKNG $40 Aug 21 2020, trading at $3.50 at time of writing. 36.5% Probability ITM. Earnings Aug 13 2020.\*21,690 open interest in this position, which would control 2.2 MILLION Shares*\**
BA $200c Oct 16 2020, trading at $14.01 at time of writing. 31% Probability ITM.
Long Term Play:
SQ $160c Jan 15 2021, trading $11.03 at time of writing. 23% Probability ITM
DKNG $45c Jan 15 2021, trading $6.70 at time of writing. 28% Probability ITM
BA $240c Jun 18 2021, trading $18.75 at time of writing. 20% Probability ITM
Final Note:
I will include the stock with the most mentions on this thread in my next analysis post. Will try to get to all your questions this time. This reddit post is not investment advice - do thorough research before ever investing.
Platform used is FindMarketPlays. Check my profile for a Demo. Enter your email here to know when it launches: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSeUTcj420FlNTpk4Ynozlbi3CuxhaIu6HJkyHLxAfZpFfG37w/viewform?usp=pp_url
submitted by iKalculated to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

How to not get ruined with options - Part 2 of 4

Post 1: Basics: CALL, PUT, exercise, ITM, ATM, OTM
Post 2: Basics: Buying and Selling, the Greeks
Post 3a: Simple Strategies
Post 3b: Advanced Strategies
Post 4a: Example of trades (short puts, covered calls, and verticals)
Post 4b: Example of trades (calendars and hedges)
---
This is a follow up of the first post.
The basics: Volatility and Time
Now that you understand the basics of intrinsic and extrinsic values and how together gives a price to the premium, it is important to understand how the extrinsic value is actually calculated. The intrinsic value is easy:
The intrinsic value of a call = share price - strike (if positive, $0 otherwise)
The intrinsic value of a put = strike - share price (if positive, $0 otherwise)
The extrinsic value is mostly based on two variables: volatility of the share price and time.
Given the historic volatility, and the predicted volatility, how far can the share price go by the expiration date? The longer the date, and the higher the share volatility, the higher the chance of the share to change significantly.
A share that jumped from $25 to $50 in the past few weeks (hello NKLA!) will have much higher volatility than a share that stayed at $50 for several months in a row. Similarly, an option expiring in two months will have a higher extrinsic value than an option expiring in one month, just because the share has more chances to move more in two months than a single month.
The extrinsic value is calculated as a combination of both the expiration date (how many days to expiration, hours even when you are close to expiration), and the implied volatility of the share.
Each strike, call or put, will have their own implied volatility. It is quite noticeable when you look at all the strikes for the same expiration. Sometimes, you can even arbitrage this between strikes and expiration dates.
The basics: Buying and Selling contracts
Until now, we have only talked about buying call and put contracts. You pay a premium to get a contract that allows you to buy (call) or sell (put) shares of a specific instrument.
As your risk is the cost of your premium, you can notice that buying options is a risky proposition.
To make a profit on the buying side:
  1. You have to be directionally correct. The price must go up for calls, down for puts.
  2. AND the share price move must be bigger than the premium you paid.
  3. AND the share price move must happen before the option expiration.
You will notice that it is pretty unforgiving. Sure, when you are right, you can make a 100% to 1000% profit in a few months, weeks, or even days. But there is a big chance that you will suffer death by thousands of cuts with your long call or put contracts losing value every day and become worthless.
We were discussing earlier how volatile stocks can have a high extrinsic value. What happens to your option price if the share is changing a lot and suddenly calms down? The extrinsic portion of the option price will crater quickly because volatility dropped, and time is still passing every day.
The same way you can buy options, you can also sell call and put options. Instead of buying the right to exercise your ITM calls and puts, you sell that right to a 3rd party (usually market makers).
To make a profit on the selling side:
  1. You have to be directionally correct.
  2. OR the share price does not move as much as the premium.
  3. OR the share price does not move before the option expiration.
Buying calls and puts mean that you need to have strong convictions on the share’s direction. I know that I am not good at predicting the future. However, I do believe in reversion to the mean (especially in this market :)), and I like to be paid as time is passing. In case you didn't guess yet, yes, I mostly sell options, I don’t buy them. This is a different risk, instead of death by a thousand cuts, a single trade can have a big loss, so proper contract sizing is really important.
It is worth noting that because you sold the right of exercise to a 3rd party, they can exercise at any time the option is ITM. When one party exercises, the broker randomly picks one of the option sellers and exercises the contract there. When you are on the receiving end of the exercise, it is called an assignment. As indicated earlier, for most parts, you will not be getting assigned on your short options as long as there is some extrinsic value left (because it is more profitable to sell the option than exercising it). Deep ITM options are more at risk, due to the sometimes inexistent extrinsic value. Also, the options just before the ex-dividend date when the dividend is as bigger than the extrinsic value are at risk, as it is a good way to get the dividend for a smaller cash outlay with little risk.
In summary:
The Greeks
Each option contract has a complex formula to calculate its premium (Black-Scholes is usually a good initial option pricing model to calculate the premiums).
Things that will determine the option premium are:
There are four key values calculated from the current option price: delta, gamma, theta, and vega. In the options world, we call them ‘the Greeks’.
Delta is how correlated your option price is compared to the underlying share price. By definition 100 shares have a delta of 100. If an option has a delta of 50, it means that if the share price increases by $1, the new price of your option means that you earned $50. Conversely, a drop of $1 means you will lose $50.
Each call contract bought will have a delta from 0 to 100. A deep ITM call will have a delta close to 100. An ATM call will have a delta around 50. Note that on expiration day, as the intrinsic value disappears, an ATM call behaves like the share price, with a delta close to 100. Buying a put will have a negative delta. A deep ITM put will have a delta close to -100. Selling a call will have a negative delta, selling a put will have a positive delta.
Gamma is the rate of change of delta as the underlying share price changes. Unless you are a market maker or doing gamma scalping (profiting from small changes in the share price), you should not worry too much about gamma.
Theta is how much money you lose or profit per day (week-end included!) on your option contracts. If you bought a call/put, your theta will be negative (you lose money every day due to the time passing closer to the contract expiration, and your option price slowly eroding). If you sold a call/put, your theta will be positive (you earn money every day from the premium). It is important to note that the theta accelerates as you get closer to the expiration. For the same strike and volatility, a theta for an option that has one month left will be smaller than the theta for an option that has one week left, and bigger than an option that has 6 months left. In the third post, I will explain how you can take advantage of this.
FWIW, with the current volatility, I get 0.1% to 0.2% of Return On Risk per day, so roughly 35% to 70% of return annualized. I don’t expect these numbers to keep like this for a long time, but I will profit as long as we are in this sideways market. I also have an overall positive delta, so I will benefit as the market goes up, and theta gain will soften the blow when the market goes down.
Vega is how much your option price will increase or decrease when the implied volatility of the share price increase by 1%. If you bought some puts or calls, your vega will be positive, as your extrinsic value will increase when volatility increases. Conversely, if you sold some puts or calls, your vega will be negative. On the sell side, you want the actual volatility to be lower than the implied volatility to make money.
This is why we often say that you sell options to sell the volatility. When volatility is high, sell options. When volatility is low, buy options. Not the opposite. This also explains why some people lose money when playing stock earnings despite being directionally correct. Before earnings, the option price takes into account the expected stock price change, so the volatility is significantly higher than usual. They bought an expensive call or put, numbers are out, share price moves in the correct direction, but because suddenly the volatility dropped (no uncertainty about the earnings anymore), the extrinsic value of the option got crushed, and offset the increase in intrinsic value. The result is not as much profit as expected or even a loss.
Bid/Ask spread
Options are less liquid than the corresponding shares, especially given the sheer quantity of strikes and expiration dates. The gap between the bid and the ask can be pretty big. If you are not careful about how you enter and exit the trade, you will transform a profitable trade into a losing one. Due to the small contract costs, the bid/ask spread adds up quickly, and with the trading fees, they can represent 10% or more of your profit. Beware!
Never ever buy or sell an option at the market price. Always use a limit order, start with the mid-price, or be even more aggressive. See if someone bites, it happens. If not, give up $0.05 or less, wait a bit longer, and do it again. Be patient. If you are at mid-price between the bid and the ask, and you think this is a fair price, and the market or time is on your side, again just be patient. It is better to not enter a trade that is not in your own terms than overpaying/underselling and reducing your profit/risk ratio too much.
LEAPs
Leap options have a very long expiration date. Usually one year or more. ETF indexes, like SPY, can have leaps of 1, 2, or 3 years away. They offer some advantages as they have a low theta. A deep ITM Leap can behave like the stock with 30% of the cost. Just remember that if the share drops by 30% long term, you will lose everything. Watch out! This is a personal experience of mine in 2008, where I diversified away from a few companies to many more companies by buying multiple leaps. It was akin to changing 100 shares into options with a delta of 250. However, when the market tanked, all these deep ITM leaps lost significantly (more than if I only had 100 shares). Good lesson learned. You win some, you lose some.
Number of shares
The vast majority of options trades at 100 shares per contract. But during share splits, or reverse splits, company reorganizations, or special dividend distributions, the numbers of shares can change. The options are automatically updated.
The 1:N splits are easily converted as you just get more contracts, and your strike is getting adjusted. For example, let’s say you own 1 contract of ABC with a strike of $200 controlling 100 shares (so exposure to $20k). Then the company splits 1:4, you are going to get 4 contracts with a strike of $50, with each contract controlling 100 shares (so still the same exposure of $20k).
The N:1 reverse splits are a tad more complex. Say you have 1 contract of ABC with a strike of $1, controlling 100 shares (so exposure to $100). Then the company reverse splits 5:1, you are going to still get 1 contract, but with a strike of $5, with each contract controlling 20 shares (so still the same exposure of $100). You will still be able to trade these 20 shares contracts but they will slowly trade less and less and disappear over time, as new 100 shares contracts will be created alongside.
Brokers and fees
In my experience, ThinkOrSwim (TOS owned by TD Ameritrade, being bought by Schwab) is one of the very best brokers to trade options. The software on PC, Mac, iPad, or iPhone is top-notch. Very easy to use, very intuitive, very responsive. Pricing on contracts dropped recently, it’s now $0.65 per contract, with $0 for exercise or assignment. You may actually be able to negotiate an even better price.
I also have Interactive Brokers (IB), and that’s the other side of the spectrum. The software is very buggy, unstable, unintuitive, and slow to update. I tried few options trades and got too frustrated to continue. Too bad, it has very good margin rates (although if you are an option seller it is not really needed, as you receive cash when you open your trades). However, it’s perfectly acceptable to trade plain ETFs and shares.
Market Markers
Most of the options you buy or sell from will be provided by the Markets Makers. Do not expect that you will get good deals from them.
You will see in the third post how you selling a put and buying a call is equivalent to buy a share. When you buy/sell a call / put from the market makers, you are guaranteed that they will hedge their corresponding positions by buying/selling a share and the opposite options (put/call).
The next post will introduce you to simple option strategies.
---
Post 1: Basics: CALL, PUT, exercise, ITM, ATM, OTM
Post 2: Basics: Buying and Selling, the Greeks
Post 3a: Simple Strategies
Post 3b: Advanced Strategies
Post 4a: Example of trades (short puts, covered calls, and verticals)
Post 4b: Example of trades (calendars and hedges)
submitted by _WhatchaDoin_ to investing [link] [comments]

Bullish Options Plays [2-4 Month Horizon]

Bullish Options Plays [2-4 Month Horizon]
This post covers 4 Bullish Option Plays across various industries.
Criteria for selecting Bullish Options Plays:
  • 500MM + Market Cap
  • Average Daily Volume 5MM +
  • Uptrend detected
Using these criteria, I have curated a basket of plays. The time frame of these options are 3-6 months out, to avoid Theta burn and maximize ITM potential. The beauty of these plays is that the stock only needs to move up a few % to be profitable, with a long time horizon as a hedge. Close the position within 2-4 months to minimize theta and maximize delta opportunity.
1) Wells Fargo $WFC [BANKING]
Wells just got hammered after an expected poor earnings. This makes it a prime candidate for upward movement.
Bullish Wells Fargo Case:
Wells has a history of prudent underwriting, and we are probably closer than not to a turn in the credit cycle.
Wells Fargo's retail branch structure, advisory network, product offerings, and share in small and medium-size enterprises is difficult to duplicate, ensuring that the company's competitive advantage is maintained.
Wells offers the scale advantages of a money center bank without the risks and volatility associated with extensive capital markets operations.
Wells Fargo Profile, from my personal research platform
Meets Criteria?

  • 500MM + Market Cap [99B]
  • Average Daily Volume 5MM + [46M]
  • Uptrend detected [Bounced off 52Wk Low as support]
  • **Within 10% of 52 Week Low [52 Week Low was $22, WFC is trading at $24.14]
$WFC Overlay with $JPM - The charts are nearly identical
As a big 4 bank, it is impossible for the Fed to allow WFC to go down. They have a good balance sheet, with a P/E ratio of 8.9, down from 11. The lower P/E ratio alone will bring in more long-term investors. If that isn't enough to make you comfortable, WFC offers a whopping 8% dividend yield, making it even more attractive.
This is an attractive investment for both options and stocks.
Let's take a look at options on $WFC, which I found using my unusual options scanner:
Big Bullish bets for October 16 2020, 2 days after their next earnings.
More Bullish Bets on WFC for October 16 2020
These huge bets range from $25 to $30, 3 months down the line. This averages to a $2.5, or 11% increase over the next 3 months. With this information, I propose:
WFC $27.50c Oct 16 2020, trading at $1.30 at time of writing. 24% Probability ITM.
WFC $30c Oct 16 2020, trading $0.79 at time of writing. 16% Probability ITM.
I am currently invested in $WFC stock, and hold the $30 Oct 16 Calls.
2) Twitter $TWTR [Technology]
Twitter is poised to dominate with its huge reach and rumored subscription platform for content creators. Source:
https://www.theverge.com/2020/7/8/21317266/twitter-subscription-platform-codename-gryphon-job-listing
This is a buy the rumor, sell the news play. I anticipate Twitter announcing this platform in the next 3 months.
Bullish Twitter Case:
Investments in product enhancements and video content could return the monthly active user growth rate to the double digits.
The deal with the NFL to live-stream Thursday night games and provide a platform for interaction and conversation about the games may attract more premium content providers to use the Twitter platform.
Growth in ad revenue per user remains strong at Twitter, more than offsetting the deceleration in user growth.
Twitter Profile, from my personal research platform
Meets Criteria?
  • 500MM + Market Cap [27B]
  • Average Daily Volume 5MM + [30M]
  • Uptrend detected [Strong upward trend since March]
$TWTR Overlay with $FB - the charts are nearly identical
The value that $TWTR and $FB lost due to lack of advertiser revenue has been recouped. The arrival of a subscription service is very bullish, because more and more people are looking to make money online since being laid off by COVID - Twitter's reach makes it incredibly well positioned to solve this problem. Subscriptions made $MSFT and $AAPL cash cows, expect the same for $TWTR.
This is an attractive investment for both options and stocks.
Let's take a look at options on $TWTR, which I found using my unusual options scanner:
Huge Bullish $TWTR bets for Jan 15, 2021
Huge Bullish $TWTR bets for Jan 15, 2021
Huge Bullish $TWTR bets for Jan 15, 2021
These bets were placed BEFORE COVID, and $TWTR is trading at the same price as when these were placed. The strikes range from $40 to $60, 6 months down the line. Taking a Strike of $40, that is 15% OTM of the current price. If they announce the platform within the next 6 months (I predict they will), the stock will explode.
With this information, I propose:
TWTR $40c Dec 18 2020, trading at $3.25 at time of writing. 28% Probability ITM.
TWTR $40c Jan 15 2020, trading $3.45 at time of writing. 29% Probability ITM.
Buying $40 Jan 15 2020 Calls are only $20 more for an extra month. Look to close these after their earnings next quarter, when they will likely announce the subscription platform.
I am currently invested in $TWTR stock, and hold the $40 Dec 18 Calls.
3) Southwest Airlines $LUV [AIRLINES]
Warren Buffet and COVID have caused investors to turn a nose up at airline stocks. I don't blame them - the uncertainty will affect airlines more than most other industries. That said, don't miss this opportunity to profit off Southwest Airlines, as they have the best balance sheet in the industry.
Bullish Southwest Airlines Case:
Southwest enjoys the strongest brand in the industry thanks to its simple fare prices, free checked bags, and solid customer service. This brand equity will enable it to continue growing faster than peers and support unit revenue.
Mergers among Southwest's competitors will engender pricing power for the airlines, and oil prices will remain low for longer, boosting Southwest's top and bottom lines.
Southwest's aggressive expansion will continue, driving growth at the carrier.
Southwest Airlines Profile, from my personal research platform
Meets Criteria?
  • 500MM + Market Cap [20B]
  • Average Daily Volume 5MM + [15M]
  • Uptrend detected [Strong upward trend since June]
$LUV Overlay with $AAL and $DAL - Delta and American have been hit worse than Southwest for a reason.
$LUV is performing better than its competitors, with higher lows and higher highs when comparing the charts. With the best balance sheet, its exposure to oil has been proven to be overcome since the whole oil futures fiasco. They have been prepped for the second wave and are most likely to weather the storm out of all the airlines.
My options scanner did not find any significant options data for $LUV.
I propose:
LUV $40c Dec 18 2020, trading at $3.05 at time of writing. 25% Probability ITM.
LUV $40c Jan 15 2020, trading $3.40 at time of writing. 26% Probability ITM.
I am currently invested in $LUV stock.
4) Ericsson $ERIC [Telecommunications Equipment]
With growing tensions between the US and China, it is unlikely Huawei will be allowed to provide 5G infrastructure. The UK just announced that Huawei will NOT be providing 5G infrastructure, so Ericsson is poised to seize a huge market share.
Bullish Ericsson case:
Income sources could diversify as licensing revenue from 5G patents may grow through applications outside of Ericsson's handset manufacturer agreements.
5G may afford Ericsson a longer spending cycle and higher equipment demand than previous wireless generations. Additionally, 5G should create more use cases for Ericsson's software and services within Internet of Things device networks.
Ericsson's turnaround measures are happening at an opportune time. Management's focused strategy should expand operating margins while 5G infrastructure spending increases top-line results.
Ericsson Profile, from my personal research platform
Meets Criteria?
  • 500MM + Market Cap [29B]
  • Average Daily Volume 5MM + [13M]
  • Uptrend detected [Strong upward trend since March, even stronger after UK Huawei announcement]
$ERIC Overlay with $NOK - Both stocks are strongly trending upward, with almost 100% gains since march.
$ERIC is poised to bank on 5G since Huawei is being punished in retaliation to Chinese handling of Hong Kong. Expect more growth as infrastructure expands and Apple announces their 5G line this fall. Source: https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-iphone-12-rumors-5g-release-camera-specs-2019-6
My options scanner did not find any significant options data for $ERIC.
I propose:
ERIC $11 Nov 20 2020, trading at $0.50 at time of writing. 25% Probability ITM.
I am no longer invested in $ERIC stock - truly kicking myself for selling, because I had a great cost basis a year ago. Regardless, I am picking up these calls.
Conclusion
Based on my research, $WFC, $TWTR, $LUV, and $ERIC are poised for big gains over the next 2 quarters. All the plays have a 25% chance of being ITM, but do not need to be ITM to be extremely profitable.
TL,DR:
WFC $27.50c Oct 16 2020, trading at $1.30 at time of writing. 24% Probability ITM.
WFC $30c Oct 16 2020, trading $0.79 at time of writing. 16% Probability ITM.
TWTR $40c Dec 18 2020, trading at $3.25 at time of writing. 28% Probability ITM.
TWTR $40c Jan 15 2020, trading $3.45 at time of writing. 29% Probability ITM.
LUV $40c Dec 18 2020, trading at $3.05 at time of writing. 25% Probability ITM.
LUV $40c Jan 15 2020, trading $3.40 at time of writing. 26% Probability ITM.
ERIC $11 Nov 20 2020, trading at $0.50 at time of writing. 25% Probability ITM.
submitted by iKalculated to options [link] [comments]

SWK - Insanely Cheap Mining Adjacency

SWK - Insanely Cheap Mining Adjacency
*** Updated Research

SWK provides an amazing opportunity to take advantage of the bull market in precious metals at an undemanding valuation with excellent operational momentum.
Environment:
Precious metals have had a phenomenal ride lately; both due to fear arising from COVID-19, and coordinated monetary policy stimulating economies at an unprecedented level. The graphic below shows the recent parabolic move in GLD (overshadowed by SLV) and reflecting upon the 08 crisis and the numerous QE policies that followed, this upward trajectory may continue further.

GLD vs DJIA (2006-Present)

With rises in commodity prices, the logical next step is to get some operating leverage and purchase the gold miners. No doubt, this second level thinking has been handsomely rewarded albeit encountering the sovereign and FX risks with many of the global miners domiciled in South Africa and Russia:

DRDGold, Polyus and Polymetal (April 20 - Present)
Since many of these miners are in the process of expanding production, cash flow won't be realised for several years and operating margins may not improve as much as managements' forecast (i.e. ASX: DAC). Further, since the market has drawn the logical connection between commodity prices and miners, these companies have run a very long way in the last few months.

Company Overview:
This is where SWK provides us with a cheaper and lower risk opportunity to gain access to this thematic. SWK provides drilling services to large miners of metals (i.e. nickel, silver, gold etc.) in US, Canada, Europe and Australia. Specifically, they use specialised drills to extract samples, which they analyse to then assess to the viability of a site. Increasing demand for mining exploration will, intuitively, increase drilling utilisation and drilling rates. SWK also entirely owns Orexplore, which provides mobile sample analysis to determine the characteristics of extracted cores. This improves the efficiency of examining the quality of a site by removing cost (transportation and storage), timing (it can be conducted on-site), and operational risk (damage in transit) all of which further benefit the mining co. and embed SWK into the exploration process.

Competitive Advantage:
SWK’s competitive advantage is being able to a world class cost effective and efficient underground drilling. For example, their development of DeepEX allows for longer hole from underground that are cheaper than many shorter surface holes. Their recent contract extension from BHP at Olympic Dam despite competitors (i.e. MSV and BLY) rigs being used onsite is testament to their value proposition.
SWK has also invested heavily (~$25mn) into their Orexplore technology in an attempt to move up the value chain away from high-capital intensive drilling into a higher margin business. This technology removes significant operating expenses (employees and equipment), reduces lead time (can be built and shipped globally within 2 weeks), is very simple to use (technical training is not required), and most importantly, is currently being purchased for free and is the main catalyst in this investment (more on this later).
Furthermore, SWK has made a concerted effort to increasingly diversify their product offering to different miners (with exposure to various commodities), and geographically. Their global and diversified footprint has provided them with a world-wide footprint, with costs to build their global business already incurred (most recently in Pogo – Alaska), further encouraging a buyout (more on this later).
FY19 Financial Report
H1 2020 Financial Report


Catalyst and Valuation:
Exit Options:
The primary catalyst for a revaluation in SWK is a huge macroeconomic tailwind providing momentum that might facilitate a sale of the drilling business to a strategic buyer. Without doing too much crystal ball gazing, I view the exit opportunities as follows:
5% - Amazing sale of drilling business = >100%+ returns;
65% - Solid sale of drilling business = 50-100% returns;
20% - No sale and general re-rate = 25-50% returns;
10% - Languishing business and capital destruction = -25%-0% returns.
Given management’s firm guidance towards the sale (https://www.openbriefing.com/OB/Swick-Mining-Services-Ltd/2020/2/25/Swick-HY20-Results-Conference-Call/3716.aspx at ~08:00) I will focus on our base case that entails: (i) selling or closing surface drilling business as it’s the lowest margin / weakest vertical; (ii) selling underground drilling business; and (iii) refocus towards Orexplore either through taking the business private, IPOing a new entity or rebranding SWK.
Given shareholders have been frustrated with SWKs delay in progressing the business towards a sale and having difficulty commercialising Orexplore it has been important to wait for a noticeable inflexion point in the business to attempt to “time” entry as much as possible. Let’s see how the inflexion point is here beyond the macroeconomic environment above.
Miners around the world are aggressively looking to expand their operations due to increasing commodity prices and SWK's services become front of mind. Recent news is ticking all the boxes and adding huge momentum in the stock to catalyse a re-rating.
  1. Reinstatement of dividend payment and share buyback program showing prudential capital management and a positive outlook relating to future financial position. This is a double-edged sword as management raised capital at 23c and bought back shares from 12.5c through to 17.5. By buying now, we have avoided this dilution although acknowledge this was not the best form of capital management. On the other hand, it does suggest management are flush with cash and happy to redistribute to existing shareholders before a possible sale; that is, we get paid to wait:

ASX Announcement 1
ASX Announcement 1

ASX Announcement 2

  1. Contracts are being extended, new contracts being won, and guidance on FY21 figures. Management are highlighting clear intention to demerge and growth is providing EBITDA growth for a better sale price:

https://preview.redd.it/06fxmos33dh51.png?width=563&format=png&auto=webp&s=70367dc6c623a4bb16c434f7f0f9892cd2a2f20b

  1. Large contracts with key miners and commercialisation of Orexplore. This is increasing utilisation rates and improving margins by expanding work at existing sites:
ASX Announcement 3a

ASX Announcement 3b

  1. Upcoming earnings call to catalyse re-rating:
ASX Announcement 4


  1. The Orexplore website (https://orexplore.com/the-orexplore-review/) has received increased attention with far more activity within their “Review Blog” section leading towards commercialisation. Posts are being made almost weekly increasing its awareness:
https://preview.redd.it/snsbk0vz2dh51.png?width=602&format=png&auto=webp&s=bb5a68c362a20c900c127dd53357ac5bf46dbbd5
https://preview.redd.it/1a80klgz2dh51.png?width=602&format=png&auto=webp&s=ab1f81609e06fc30683de45a4de778bb2838bb80

  1. MSV as the strategic buyer for the drilling business has shown intent to inorganically expand their operations. Deepcore had an EV of ~$44m (excl. additional earnout payments), revenues of ~$50m p.a., and an EBITDA of ~$12m with approximately half the rig number of SWK. This purchase confirms the “fair value” multiple for a drilling business is ~4x EV/EBITDA, even for a significantly weaker private business due to utilisation, profitability, scale and contractual certainty.
https://preview.redd.it/jumpn58y2dh51.png?width=602&format=png&auto=webp&s=ad650e7b63b341e06ddd0a8bff88121249a03925
Valuation:
Ok, so let’s turn our attention to the forward guidance and conservative estimates for SWK. SWK against mostly all metrics is very cheap. Management have forecast EBITDA to be ~$25mn in FY20. Although I think we can conservatively estimate this to grow significantly throughout FY21.
The improvements to EBITDA will come from the following: (i) commercialisation of Orexplore = $0.5-1mn, (ii) ~$3-4mn in reaching steady state (20%) margin from the Pogo contract as costs normalise and backdated earnings flow through; (iii) ~$2mn in operating expense reduction during COVID-19; (iv) the $120m increase in the order book between 30 July and 14 August implies $120/5 = $24m p.a. at a slight discount to target margin of ~15% gives another $3.5mn EBITDA. Putting this all together FY21 EBITDA might be ~$35mn.
In addition to the purchase of Deepcore, we can use the current valuation ratios of MSV and CAPD as a guide. Currently competitors trade between 3.5x (CAPD) and 4.5x (MSV) EV/EBITDA multiples. If we use 4x as a reasonable multiple on current EBITDA, this would imply an enterprise value of ~$100mn (or a 30% upside) whilst paying nothing for Orexplore. Upon conservative forward FY21 EBITDA figures, the enterprise value could easily reach ~$150 (or a 100% upside) again paying almost nothing (only $1mn / $35mn in EBITDA) for Orexplore.
By way of reference, SWK with similar metrics in 2011/12 was trading at a ~100% premium (i.e. ~40c (market cap $90-110mn) whereas now it is ~$20 (market cap $50mn). A decade ago, it also did not have the same existing clientele and large-scale contract wins (see 3a above with a forward order book of $363mn (relative to current revenues of ~$150mn).
The cherry on top of this investment is Orexplore, which we buy for free. None of the revenue and earnings multiples above include any real impact from Orexplore. On 14th August the commercial viability of Orexplore was been partially validated with their first contract win. Although its value is only $700,000 over 6 months this call option like payoff comes entirely for free. Further, the true profit margins of SWK has been hidden due to the losses incurred from Orexplore, which has to date cost $25mn in R&D (or equal to almost 10yrs of earnings), the amortisation of associated software development, and continued global expansion (Portugal and Europe before North America) each requiring initial costs prior to achieving target margins. Even better we get a first glimpse at how attractive Orexplore might be. Combining discussion in the latest conference call (https://www.openbriefing.com/OB/Swick-Mining-Services-Ltd/2020/2/25/Swick-HY20-Results-Conference-Call/3716.aspx 04:30 - 06:30) with the recent contract we can conclude the following: (i) 3 machines at Sandfire will generate ~$3.6mn in revenue covering approx. 50% of cash flow with nearly no operating expenses; (ii) $700,000 for 6months scanning 1500m of core per month implies ~$75/m (against an estimated $100m from guidance). As per guidance, if we assume Orexplore machines can scan ~$4m/hr ($300hr) and total costs may include one unskilled technician and minimal overheads ~$50mn this provides a gross margin of ~75% (or almost 4x undergrounding drilling). Due to the profitability of Orexplore, 15-20 operational machines on yearly contracts would provide greater earnings than SWK’s entire business. Hopefully the publicity of Orexplore at Sandfire can attract some attention, and in turn some additional contracts.

Risks:
No investment is without its risks, and for SWK they fall into: (i) capital mismanagement; and (ii) poor communication / delays. Firstly, the recent capital raise at ~23c followed by aggressive buybacks at ~12.5-14c-17c seems unwise. Although buying now avoids this dilution, it is unclear why excess capital was required if dividends and buybacks were announced shortly thereafter. Secondly, the share price has historically languished due to a lack of publicity and detail on the transformational Orexplore. It is likely that management were unwilling to oversell the Orexplore narrative before genuine contracts were won and the technology was established. Now that these are in place, hopefully the corporate restructure can take place and the upcoming strategic review can provide a clearer picture for the near term.
submitted by Bruticus91 to ASX_Bets [link] [comments]

My experience so far with the new 2020 Spectre x360 (Max config, OLED)

So since I've finally got my new Spectre x360 in (I powered through and stuck with the delays on HP's site, lots of folks on here got me worried about quality issues with Best Buy/MS models, plus the exact config I wanted wasn't available), I figured I'd make a post about all the things I love about it!

My Specs

So the specs I got specifically are:
Further, I'd also like to clarify that in the end, HP's site was indeed wrong about the Thunderbolt ports! I was worried that there would only be one Thunderbolt and one USB-C on the US model (unlike other models), but it turns out that the eb0000 does indeed have TWO Thunderbolt ports!
A number of people were also wondering about the RAM speed. I downloaded CPU-Z to check. Not sure what I'm looking for exactly, but NB Frequency hovers around 3200 MHz at idle, so I'm guessing that means it's 3200 MHz RAM? It peaks up to like 3900 MHz though. (The SPD tab is blank.)

SSD Upgrade!

Now you may be thinking to yourself... "Why on earth did he buy the max specs but go for the smallest 256GB SSD?" Well, I'll tell you why... It's called a Samsung 970 Evo Plus 1TB! This is pretty much regarded as the absolute fastest SSD on the market, even trading blows with some of Intel's PCIe offerings! Now that's impressive.
On CrystalDiskMark, I previously got around 3110/1430 MB/s (Seq Read/Write), while I'm now getting 3560/3290 MB/s. Plus that performance should be more sustained thanks to a larger cache. Nice!
However, as you can see, the SSD that was in the machine previously actually isn't too terrible on paper (I expected worse), though the thing is, that doesn't tell the whole story. There was definitely some noticeable stuttering/waiting for disk access in practice when using the PC for regular tasks, ex. opening and working on large PSD files.

Fresh Windows

Long story short, my advice is 100% install a fresh copy of Windows. This alone sped up my PC like double and eliminated the chug that it had at first (leaving me a little concerned initially). Fortunately it seems to have been due simply to bloatware. That sheer measurable performance difference fresh Windows the absolute number 1 way to speed up your PC, in my eyes.
The SSD swap by comparison (I installed fresh Windows twice, on both SSDs, for testing purposes), did speed up my computer by a noticeable margin, and eliminated that slight chug/overall system slowdown whenever trying to open a large file... Not something you notice that much until it's gone... But overall I'd say it was a much smaller boost in performance (especially relative to the risk of damage to the PC) than a fresh Windows install. Granted it was also a big cost saver versus the overpriced hot garbage HP will toss in there if you pick the 1TB option!
Between both upgrades, my PC is now literally fully usable and logged in with Windows Hello within 8.2 seconds of pressing the power button after replacing the SSD, timed, down from 18 seconds out-of-box.
Another recommendation of mine is, after installing all your software, to run msconfig.exe and switch to the services tab. This has the advantage over the regular Services app of having a "Hide all Microsoft services" checkbox. Very helpful to avoid disabling anything that you probably shouldn't have! Now just avoid anything that says Intel, NVIDIA, etc, and you should be fine to disable whatever you please!
And while you probably already know this, my final tip is after installing fresh Windows, you can go to HP's support site at any time to redownload any HP utilities you think you'll actually use.
Bang & Olufsen EQ will also be installed automatically by Windows Update. I find having an audio EQ pretty useful, as I like to tweak it till it's just right. Also loving the quad speakers on this PC, the sound stage is fairly expansive, and I'm not disappointed by the audio quality at all, it's not tinny at all, and fairly well balanced, in that voices are clear and easy to understand, while music also pops.
Beyond that, I'm also surprisingly pleased with the pen input! Whether it be due to the digitizer or just simply having more horsepower, the pen latency feels like almost half my Surface Book! A rather significant improvement for an artist.

The Display

And finally the display... Oh yes, the display, the absolute best part of this machine! I won't lie, this was part of the reason I went with the Spectre, primarily the XPS 2-in-1... And I'm not disappointed! The OLED is absolutely stunning in person!
Now you'll want to pay attention to this part, if you're getting a machine with an OLED display... The first thing I did when I got it out of the box was a gray uniformity test, then a color uniformity test. Make sure all your pixels, red, green, and blue work, and ensure that the picture is even at very low brightness levels! Do this in a dark room to make sure you don't miss anything.
The second thing I did was go into display settings in Windows and set the display from 59Hz to 60Hz. I'm not sure why this is a thing that happens, but many, many laptops seem to do this and I don't know why. Just make sure it's set to true 60Hz or you could get minor screen tearing during video playback.
Finally the last thing I did was an HDR test. I did post about one issue, here, but other than that, I'm fairly satisfied with the HDR, and with the display overall! It's absolutely gorgeous.
As for some other things you might want to consider... Make sure to set your PC to dark mode under Personalization -> Colors. I also set my Chrome theme to black (New Tab -> Customize -> Color and Theme -> Black), and downloaded an extension that forces websites into a dark mode!
I've tried a few extensions that do this, and so far I'm happiest with this one: https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/dark-mode/dmghijelimhndkbmpgbldicpogfkceaj

How does it game?

Surprisingly well! The thermal management in the Spectre is no joke, two fans and some nice thick vapor chamber heat pipes, plus a pretty good layout for the vents, I'd say it manages to stay cool better than most high-spec laptops I've seen/used, especially thin and sleek ones.
Granted, by that I mean it barely manages to stay cool at idle, but again, that's better than most. This is hardly my first high end laptop, haha.
Anyway, I may update this portion with benchmarks later on, but subjectively, I can tell you the 1650 Ti has a lot more horsepower than I was expecting! The Surface Book 2 was a total moot point as far as gaming went... Like seriously, that thing struggled to handle Minecraft Optifine at native res 60fps.
This thing will run MC at a cool 4K 60 smoothly... More than that, it'll take mid-range shader packs without breaking a sweat! It's also handled a few other games I threw at it, including Far Cry 5 (4K Medium), and Tetris Effect (4K Epic with AA).
I'll test soon whether or not it can handle VR, taking advantage of this newer reprojection tech that's come out... Who knows!

Keep It Cool Baby

Also, I should clarify my results here... If you expect to game on a laptop that isn't designed for it, USE AN EXTERNAL COOLING SOLUTION. The Surface Book 2 performed poorly even with one, but that was about the only exception. The Spectre's cooling is quite impressive, but even that isn't enough on it's own.
Here's the solution I went with... I bought this USB fan to help cool my previous PC (a Surface Book 2 as I mentioned), which did tend to get pretty toasty (tended make my fingers sweaty while drawing, as an artist). It works great for this purpose, and having three fan speeds means it can either stay quiet or suck a ton of air.
https://amazon.com/gp/product/B083TL8P4K
I also tried a laptop cooling pad, but they can be a bit bulky and cumbersome, I ended up not using it much.
submitted by Pecacheu to spectrex360 [link] [comments]

$SQ $DKNG $BA Options Plays [07/21/2020]

$SQ $DKNG $BA Options Plays [07/21/2020]
Recap
Previous Research:
https://www.reddit.com/options/comments/hrbexa/bullish_options_plays_24_month_horizon/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x
https://www.reddit.com/options/comments/huwfat/short_long_option_plays_07202020/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x
This post covers Option Plays for $SQ, $DKNG, $BA
The time frame of these options are 3-6 months out, to avoid Theta burn and maximize ITM potential. The beauty of long plays is that the stock only needs to move a few % to be profitable, with a long time horizon as a hedge. Close the position within 2-4 months to minimize theta and maximize delta opportunity. I have also included a shorter time frame with higher risk/reward and lower premiums. Short plays are laid out, but not recommended.
1) Square, Inc $SQ [Information Technology Services] - BULLISH
Square, Inc. engages in the provision of credit card payment processing solutions. It is a cohesive commerce ecosystem that helps sellers start, run, and grow their businesses. The firms sellers downloads the Square Point of Sale mobile app, they can quickly and easily take their first payment, typically within minutes.
Bullish Square Case:
The ongoing shift toward electronic payments has created, and will continue to create, room for acquirers to see strong growth without stealing share from each other.
Ancillary services are becoming a more critical engine for growth and will help Square fully monetize its merchant client base and improve margins.
Electronic payment growth is shifting overseas, and Square’s business model looks portable into international markets, as the company does not rely on a large local salesforce to attract merchants.
$SQ profile, from FindMarketPlays early access platform
In both previous research posts, I discussed the bullish case of Twitter hinging on a successful subscription platform.
Source: https://www.theverge.com/2020/7/8/21317266/twitter-subscription-platform-codename-gryphon-job-listing
Subscription platforms require a reliable payment processor. Guess who Dorsey is going to choose to process payments for Twitter's subscription platform?
$SQ overlaid with $SHOP, following the same trajectory
$SHOP is trading at a 69x Price to Revenue multiple, with -$1.16 EPS. $SQ is trading at a 11x Price to Revenue multiple, with $0.72 EPS. Not only is $SQ profitable, it is in a similar niche to $SHOP and has a huge growth opportunity with Twitter's subscription platform.
Let's take a look at the unusual options activity scanner:
$2 Million in $97.5 calls, expiring Aug 21. Earnings Aug 5
$190 Jan 15 Calls
$100 Jan 15 Calls
Big bullish bets on $SQ, notably dated around Jan 15. Coincidentally, that is the timeframe I pegged for $TWTR $40 Calls, and for the Subscription platform to be announced.
Personal Experience: I set up a Shopify site for a girl I know who started a brick-and-mortar clothing store. She is... technologically challenged, to say the least. Guess what she used for payments in retail? Square. Even with Shopify's poor integration with Square, she stuck with it (Against my advice for inventory & tracking purposes). As states reopen, and smaller brick and mortars are back, farmers markets, carnivals, etc, expect growth from $SQ.
I am eyeing a $118-$122 entry to incorporate the stock into my portfolio, and purchase options.
With this information, I propose:
Short Term Play [HIGH RISK]:
SQ $130c Aug 7 2020, trading at $6.57 at time of writing. 41% Probability ITM. Earnings Aug 05 2020.
Long Term Play:
SQ $160c Jan 15 2021, trading $11.03 at time of writing. 23% Probability ITM
2) DraftKings, Inc $DKNG [Internet Software/Services] - BULLISH
DraftKings, Inc. operates as a digital sports entertainment and gaming company. It provides online and retail sports wagering offerings, online daily fantasy contests and online casino games.
$DKNG profile, from FindMarketPlays early access platform
Currently, only 5 states have legal online gambling [Delaware, Nevada, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia]. 23 states have Sports Betting legal and or in legislation.
From https://investmentu.com/sports-betting-stocks/
Focus on casino gambling!
You can gamble at a casino whether there are sports on or not, and the following states are most likely to legalize online casino gambling in the next 12 months [based on legislation]:
  • California [40 Million Population]
  • Connecticut [3.6 Million Population]
  • Illinois [13 Million Population]
  • Indiana [6.6 Million Population]
  • Massachusetts [6.8 Million Population]
  • Nevada [2.8 Million Population]
  • New York [20 Million Population]
These states represent 92.8 Million people, or 30% of the US population.
Source: https://www.bettingusa.com/states/
$DKNG overlaid with $PENN, following the same trajectory
52 Week high for $DKNG is $44. With Americans sitting at home, legalizing online gambling makes sense financially for governments and to satiate the appetite of the restless, short-attention span population.
Let's take a look at the unusual options activity scanner:
A stream of bullish plays, ranging from $30 to $40, expiring July 24 and Aug 21.
$DKNG is both a stock and option play. I am eyeing a $28-$30 entry to incorporate the stock into my portfolio, and purchase options.
Personal Experience: A buddy of mine ran an (illegal) sports book in college, and netted 6 figures over the course of four years. Tons of potential tax dollars on the line.
With this information, I propose:
Short Term Play [HIGH RISK]:
DKNG $40 Aug 21 2020, trading at $3.50 at time of writing. 36.5% Probability ITM. Earnings Aug 13 2020.\*21,690 open interest in this position, which would control 2.2 MILLION Shares*\**
Long Term Play:
DKNG $45c Jan 15 2021, trading $6.70 at time of writing. 28% Probability ITM
3) Boeing, Co $BA [Aerospace & Defense] - BULLISH
Boeing is the cornerstone of millions of stock portfolios. I remember hawking the stock price while on vacation in Paris, when the plane crashed in March '19. My ex was pissed. I was more pissed for not picking up some stock and options when it bottomed around $100 a few months ago.
Bullish Boeing case:
Boeing has a large backlog that covers several years of production for the most popular aircraft, which gives us confidence in aggregate demand for aerospace products.
Boeing is well-positioned to benefit from emerging market growth in revenue passenger kilometers and a robust developed market replacement cycle over the next two decades.
We expect that commercial airframe manufacturing will remain a duopoly over the foreseeable future. We think customers will not have many options other than continuing to rely on incumbent aircraft suppliers.
$BA profile, from FindMarketPlays early access platform
COVID-19 has been a blessing in disguise for $BA. COVID-19 gifted $BA time, the most important thing they needed to fix their issues. Airlines are not flying, so it is excusable for $BA to have cancelled orders. Finally, as long as the oil-based dollar is the global currency, $BA will be in business selling weapons.
$BA overlaid with $RTX, another major defense contractor.
Despite the airline issues, $BA is tracking $RTX, because defense is where the big money is.
Let's take a look at the unusual options activity scanner:
$1.3 Million in $195 Sept 18 Calls
$800K in $180 Aug 21 Calls
Earnings is July 29th, but this is not an earnings play. The stock is consolidating in the $170-$180 range, a huge support and resistance in 2020. I am eyeing a $165-$170 entry to incorporate the stock into my portfolio, and purchase options.
With this information, I propose:
Short Term Play [HIGH RISK]:
BA $200c Oct 16 2020, trading at $14.01 at time of writing. 31% Probability ITM.
Long Term Play:
BA $240c Jun 18 2021, trading $18.75 at time of writing. 20% Probability ITM
Conclusion
Based on my research, $SQ stands to gain from $TWTR news, $DKNG is poised to dominate online gambling, $BA is slowly recovering, and will not fail.
TL,DR:
Short Term Play [HIGH RISK]:
SQ $130c Aug 7 2020, trading at $6.57 at time of writing. 41% Probability ITM. Earnings Aug 05 2020.
DKNG $40 Aug 21 2020, trading at $3.50 at time of writing. 36.5% Probability ITM. Earnings Aug 13 2020.\*21,690 open interest in this position, which would control 2.2 MILLION Shares*\**
BA $200c Oct 16 2020, trading at $14.01 at time of writing. 31% Probability ITM.
Long Term Play:
SQ $160c Jan 15 2021, trading $11.03 at time of writing. 23% Probability ITM
DKNG $45c Jan 15 2021, trading $6.70 at time of writing. 28% Probability ITM
BA $240c Jun 18 2021, trading $18.75 at time of writing. 20% Probability ITM
Final Note:
I will include the stock with the most mentions on this thread in my next analysis post. Will try to get to all your questions this time. This reddit post is not investment advice - do thorough research before ever investing.
Platform used is FindMarketPlays. Check my profile for a Demo. Enter your email here to know when it launches: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSeUTcj420FlNTpk4Ynozlbi3CuxhaIu6HJkyHLxAfZpFfG37w/viewform?usp=pp_url
submitted by iKalculated to options [link] [comments]

Bullish Option Plays for you [Various Industries]

Bullish Option Plays for you [Various Industries]
This post covers 4 Bullish Option Plays across various industries.
Criteria for selecting Bullish Options Plays:
  • 500MM + Market Cap
  • Average Daily Volume 5MM +
  • Uptrend detected
Using these criteria, I have curated a basket of plays. The time frame of these options are 3-6 months out, to avoid Theta burn and maximize ITM potential. The beauty of these plays is that the stock only needs to move up a few % to be profitable, with a long time horizon as a hedge. Close the position within 2-4 months to minimize theta and maximize delta opportunity.
1) Wells Fargo $WFC [BANKING]
Wells just got hammered after an expected poor earnings. This makes it a prime candidate for upward movement.
Bullish Wells Fargo Case:
Wells has a history of prudent underwriting, and we are probably closer than not to a turn in the credit cycle.
Wells Fargo's retail branch structure, advisory network, product offerings, and share in small and medium-size enterprises is difficult to duplicate, ensuring that the company's competitive advantage is maintained.
Wells offers the scale advantages of a money center bank without the risks and volatility associated with extensive capital markets operations.
Wells Fargo Profile, from my personal research platform
Meets Criteria?
  • 500MM + Market Cap [99B]
  • Average Daily Volume 5MM + [46M]
  • Uptrend detected [Bounced off 52Wk Low as support]
  • **Within 10% of 52 Week Low [52 Week Low was $22, WFC is trading at $24.14]
$WFC Overlay with $JPM - The charts are nearly identical
As a big 4 bank, it is impossible for the Fed to allow WFC to go down. They have a good balance sheet, with a P/E ratio of 8.9, down from 11. The lower P/E ratio alone will bring in more long-term investors. If that isn't enough to make you comfortable, WFC offers a whopping 8% dividend yield, making it even more attractive.
This is an attractive investment for both options and stocks.
Let's take a look at options on $WFC, which I found using my unusual options scanner:
Big Bullish bets for October 16 2020, 2 days after their next earnings.
More Bullish Bets on WFC for October 16 2020
These huge bets range from $25 to $30, 3 months down the line. This averages to a $2.5, or 11% increase over the next 3 months. With this information, I propose:
WFC $27.50c Oct 16 2020, trading at $1.30 at time of writing. 24% Probability ITM.
WFC $30c Oct 16 2020, trading $0.79 at time of writing. 16% Probability ITM.
I am currently invested in $WFC stock, and hold the $30 Oct 16 Calls.
2) Twitter $TWTR [Technology]
Twitter is poised to dominate with its huge reach and rumored subscription platform for content creators. Source:
https://www.theverge.com/2020/7/8/21317266/twitter-subscription-platform-codename-gryphon-job-listing
This is a buy the rumor, sell the news play. I anticipate Twitter announcing this platform in the next 3 months.
Bullish Twitter Case:
Investments in product enhancements and video content could return the monthly active user growth rate to the double digits.
The deal with the NFL to live-stream Thursday night games and provide a platform for interaction and conversation about the games may attract more premium content providers to use the Twitter platform.
Growth in ad revenue per user remains strong at Twitter, more than offsetting the deceleration in user growth.
Twitter Profile, from my personal research platform
Meets Criteria?
  • 500MM + Market Cap [27B]
  • Average Daily Volume 5MM + [30M]
  • Uptrend detected [Strong upward trend since March]
$TWTR Overlay with $FB - the charts are nearly identical
The value that $TWTR and $FB lost due to lack of advertiser revenue has been recouped. The arrival of a subscription service is very bullish, because more and more people are looking to make money online since being laid off by COVID - Twitter's reach makes it incredibly well positioned to solve this problem. Subscriptions made $MSFT and $AAPL cash cows, expect the same for $TWTR.
This is an attractive investment for both options and stocks.
Let's take a look at options on $TWTR, which I found using my unusual options scanner:
Huge Bullish $TWTR bets for Jan 15, 2021
Huge Bullish $TWTR bets for Jan 15, 2021
Huge Bullish $TWTR bets for Jan 15, 2021
These bets were placed BEFORE COVID, and $TWTR is trading at the same price as when these were placed. The strikes range from $40 to $60, 6 months down the line. Taking a Strike of $40, that is 15% OTM of the current price. If they announce the platform within the next 6 months (I predict they will), the stock will explode.
With this information, I propose:
TWTR $40c Dec 18 2020, trading at $3.25 at time of writing. 28% Probability ITM.
TWTR $40c Jan 15 2020, trading $3.45 at time of writing. 29% Probability ITM.
Buying $40 Jan 15 2020 Calls are only $20 more for an extra month. Look to close these after their earnings next quarter, when they will likely announce the subscription platform.
I am currently invested in $TWTR stock, and hold the $40 Dec 18 Calls.
3) Southwest Airlines $LUV [AIRLINES]
Warren Buffet and COVID have caused investors to turn a nose up at airline stocks. I don't blame them - the uncertainty will affect airlines more than most other industries. That said, don't miss this opportunity to profit off Southwest Airlines, as they have the best balance sheet in the industry.
Bullish Southwest Airlines Case:
Southwest enjoys the strongest brand in the industry thanks to its simple fare prices, free checked bags, and solid customer service. This brand equity will enable it to continue growing faster than peers and support unit revenue.
Mergers among Southwest's competitors will engender pricing power for the airlines, and oil prices will remain low for longer, boosting Southwest's top and bottom lines.
Southwest's aggressive expansion will continue, driving growth at the carrier.
Southwest Airlines Profile, from my personal research platform
Meets Criteria?
  • 500MM + Market Cap [20B]
  • Average Daily Volume 5MM + [15M]
  • Uptrend detected [Strong upward trend since June]
$LUV Overlay with $AAL and $DAL - Delta and American have been hit worse than Southwest for a reason.
$LUV is performing better than its competitors, with higher lows and higher highs when comparing the charts. With the best balance sheet, its exposure to oil has been proven to be overcome since the whole oil futures fiasco. They have been prepped for the second wave and are most likely to weather the storm out of all the airlines.
My options scanner did not find any significant options data for $LUV.
I propose:
LUV $40c Dec 18 2020, trading at $3.05 at time of writing. 25% Probability ITM.
LUV $40c Jan 15 2020, trading $3.40 at time of writing. 26% Probability ITM.
I am currently invested in $LUV stock.
4) Ericsson $ERIC [Telecommunications Equipment]
With growing tensions between the US and China, it is unlikely Huawei will be allowed to provide 5G infrastructure. The UK just announced that Huawei will NOT be providing 5G infrastructure, so Ericsson is poised to seize a huge market share.
Bullish Ericsson case:
Income sources could diversify as licensing revenue from 5G patents may grow through applications outside of Ericsson's handset manufacturer agreements.
5G may afford Ericsson a longer spending cycle and higher equipment demand than previous wireless generations. Additionally, 5G should create more use cases for Ericsson's software and services within Internet of Things device networks.
Ericsson's turnaround measures are happening at an opportune time. Management's focused strategy should expand operating margins while 5G infrastructure spending increases top-line results.
Ericsson Profile, from my personal research platform
Meets Criteria?
  • 500MM + Market Cap [29B]
  • Average Daily Volume 5MM + [13M]
  • Uptrend detected [Strong upward trend since March, even stronger after UK Huawei announcement]
$ERIC Overlay with $NOK - Both stocks are strongly trending upward, with almost 100% gains since march.
$ERIC is poised to bank on 5G since Huawei is being punished in retaliation to Chinese handling of Hong Kong. Expect more growth as infrastructure expands and Apple announces their 5G line this fall. Source: https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-iphone-12-rumors-5g-release-camera-specs-2019-6
My options scanner did not find any significant options data for $ERIC.
I propose:
ERIC $11 Nov 20 2020, trading at $0.50 at time of writing. 25% Probability ITM.
I am no longer invested in $ERIC stock - truly kicking myself for selling, because I had a great cost basis a year ago. Regardless, I am picking up these calls.
Conclusion
Based on my research, $WFC, $TWTR, $LUV, and $ERIC are poised for big gains over the next 2 quarters. All the plays have a 25% chance of being ITM, but do not need to be ITM to be extremely profitable.
TL,DR:
WFC $27.50c Oct 16 2020, trading at $1.30 at time of writing. 24% Probability ITM.
WFC $30c Oct 16 2020, trading $0.79 at time of writing. 16% Probability ITM.
TWTR $40c Dec 18 2020, trading at $3.25 at time of writing. 28% Probability ITM.
TWTR $40c Jan 15 2020, trading $3.45 at time of writing. 29% Probability ITM.
LUV $40c Dec 18 2020, trading at $3.05 at time of writing. 25% Probability ITM.
LUV $40c Jan 15 2020, trading $3.40 at time of writing. 26% Probability ITM.
ERIC $11 Nov 20 2020, trading at $0.50 at time of writing. 25% Probability ITM.
submitted by iKalculated to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Best broker/software for day trading/ potentially scalping?

Ive been day trading so far with T212 CFD's, I'm finding it difficult to work with my strategy for two reasons:
The margin seems to be massively biased towards nullifying potential profit and widening at the best point of entry. Often the difference between the buy price and sell price is larger than most peaks on the graph.
Fee free would be great but not essential.
Im not trading a large sum so leverage would be good but having the ability to modify the leverage would be great. I have seen some live trading/scalping where the software allows the small 90% gains that T212 seems designed to remove.
I have a strategy based on support and resistance and trading the breakouts so any suggestions for platforms that support this would be great. Leniency on scalping is essential as well, an issue I have with T212 as I am missing trades because I know I wont be able to hold them for 5 minutes.
submitted by DemonNeutrino to Daytrading [link] [comments]

Unusual Option Activity for Aug-26-2020 - STM, SE (C), AMD (C)

Context -
The S&P 500 (+1.0%) and Nasdaq Composite (+1.7%) rallied to fresh record highs on today, propelled higher by some eye-popping gains in the mega-cap stocks. The Russell 2000 was left in the dust with a 0.7% decline.
Highlighting a few of the moves: Salesforce (CRM 272.32, +56.27, +26.0%) surged 26% following its earnings report, Facebook (FB 303.91, +23.09, +8.2%) rose 8% on no news, and Netflix (NFLX 547.53, +56.95, +11.6%) rose 11% on no news. Apple (AAPL 506.09, +6.79, +1.4%) and Tesla (TSLA 2153.17, +129.83, +6.4%) were fueled by a pair of Street-high price-target increases.
Today’s leadership came from the S&P 500 communication services (+3.7%), information technology (+2.1%). In the afternoon, the gains broadened out to the materials (+1.0%), industrials (+0.1%), and consumer staples (+0.1%) sectors.
Declining issues outnumbered advancing issues at the NYSE and Nasdaq by a comfortable margin. The biggest laggards were found within the energy (-2.2%), utilities (-1.2%), and real estate (-0.7%) sectors.
Durable goods orders increased 11.2% m/m in July (consensus +3.9%), and Moderna (MRNA 70.50, +4.25, +6.4%) said its COVID-19 vaccine generated a promising immune response in ten elderly patients.
For some perspective on today's record-setting performance, the S&P 500 finished the day up 58.7% from its March 23 low, up 7.7% for the year, and 13.0% above its 200-day moving average (3079). The latter raises the risk for a technical correction, although the momentum in the market can go on for longer than expected.
The U.S. Dollar Index declined 0.1% to 92.91. WTI crude futures increased by 0.1% to $43.39/bbl.
Investors will receive the weekly Initial and Continuing Claims report, the second estimate for Q2 GDP, and Pending Home Sales for July on Thursday.
Index Summary -
S&P 500 +1.0%; Nasdaq +2.13%;
DOW +0.29%; Russell 2000 -0.63%
VIX: 23.27 1.24,( +5.63%)
Sector Summary -
The three highest sectors for today were :
Communication Services +3.42%; Information Technology +2.03%; Materials +1.05%;
The three lowest sectors for today were :
Energy -2.11%; Utilities -1.11%; Real Estate -0.69%;
Commodities -
Gold - 1921.3,( -0.09%); Crude - 43.19,( -0.37%)
Today’s Option Activity Fast Facts -
CBOE Put/Call Ratio - 0.42
Highest Multiple Over Daily Average - BOX with 17 x the ADV of 2756. There were 36698 calls and 9645 puts.
Ticker with Most Contracts - NIO with 1330223 contracts traded today with an AVD of 322440. There were 1036099 calls and 294124 puts.
Largest Put / Call Ratio - ALBO with a 49.0 P/C ratio. There were 14603 puts and 298 calls.
Largest Call / Put Ratio - STM with a 98.36 C/P ratio. There were 57247 calls and 582 puts.
\Stocks must be >$6, Highest Multiple must have >1k ADV, Largest ratios must have an option volume >10k*
Recap -
PDD 89.24 +2,(+2.29%)
NIO 20.44 +2.6,(+14.57%)
AMGN 250.16 +1.94,(+0.78%)
LI 23.3 +5.07,(+27.81%)
You can find yesterday's post here.
MOMENTUM UNUSUAL OPTION ACTIVITY -
First Momentum Stock Pick -
Ticker : STM 30.91 +0.72,(+2.38%) Earnings : 2020-10-22
Name : STMicroelectronics NV
Industry : Semiconductors, Sector : Electronic Technology
Option Information -
Today’s Option Volume: 57829, OptionOI: 140872
Multiple of ADV: 6, ADV: 9349
Total Calls: 57247, Total Puts: 582
Calls at Ask: 75.4%, Calls at Bid: 14.0%
Puts at Ask: 9.1%, Puts at Bid: 82.0%
C/P Ratio: 98.4
Notable Strikes :
SEP 18 '20 30.0 C had 1526.0 VLM and 0 OI.
OCT 16 '20 30.0 C had 1438 VLM and 0 OI.
NOV 20 '20 30.0 C had 1976 VLM and 4400 OI.
News :
Potential Sympathy Stocks for STM
TXN, NXPI, ADI, MXIM
My Impression :
The Calls at Ask %, Multiple of ADV, and C/P ratio looks extremely bullish. The Semi-Conductor sector has seen a lot of aggressive buying over the past few weeks. This was a pick on July 15ths post. This stock increased initially after it was mentioned and has now declined. I think I will likely invest in this one again tomorrow.
CLASSIC UNUSUAL OPTION ACTIVITY -
First Classic UOA Stock Pick -
Ticker : SE 159 +4.87,(+3.16%), Earnings : 2020-11-18
Name : Sea Ltd. (Singapore)
Sector : Technology Services, Industry : Internet Software/Services
Option Information :
2020-09-18 185.0 C - 1,200 @ 2.85 were traded at 11:37 as a BLOCK Spot Price: 161.62
News :
No new news today.
Potential Sympathy Stocks for SE
WMB, EPD, ENB, SRE
Second Classic UOA Stock Pick -
Ticker : AMD 86.01 -0.34,( -0.39%), Earnings : 2020-10-15
Name : Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.
Sector : Electronic Technology, Industry : Semiconductors
Option Information :
2020-09-18 95.0 C - 1,238 @ 1.80 were traded at 09:38 as a BLOCK Spot Price: 86.58
News :
2020-08-26 07:04:46 - The Value vs Growth Dilemma for Intel, Nvidia and AMD
No summary available.
2020-08-25 17:35:36.383000 - AMD Q2 Earnings: The Company Gained Market Share in All CPU Markets
For years AMD was known as the little low-cost competitor of Intel. For people who cared looking into details, AMD processors often delivered better performance per dollar but in the end, who said…
Potential Sympathy Stocks for AMD
INTC, NVDA, TXN, MCHP
Upcoming Events for Next Trading Day -
Here you can find a full list of tomorrow's events with explanations.
Thanks for reading.
DISCLAIMER – These are my observations that I have made at the end of each day and trades that I am considering placing or watching. I am not responsible for your financial losses if you follow any of these trades. As always, do your due diligence.
Company Summary : STM
STMicroelectronics NV designs, develops, manufactures and markets products, which offers discrete and standard commodity components, application-specific integrated circuits, full custom devices and semi-custom devices for analog, digital and mixed-signal applications. It operates through the following segments: Automotive and Discrete Group, Analog and MEMS Group, and Microcontrollers and Digital ICs Group. The Automotive and Discrete Group segment comprises of all dedicated automotive ICs, and discrete and power transistor products. The Analog and MEMS Group segment comprises of low-power high-end analog ICs, smart power products for industrial, computer and consumer markets, touch screen controllers, low power connectivity solutions and metering solutions for smart grid and all MEMS products. The Microcontrollers and Digital ICs Group segment comprises of general purpose and secure microcontrollers, EEPROM memories, and digital ASICs. The company was founded in June 1987 and is headquartered in Plan-Les-Ouates, Switzerland.
Company Summary : SE
Sea Ltd. (Singapore) is an internet and mobile platform company. The firm engages in the provision of online gaming services. It operates through the following segments: Digital Entertainment, E-Commerce and Digital Financial Services. The Digital Entertainment segment offers access to game-related content through game forums, group voice chat, live streaming, and other user socializing functions on the Garena mobile app and desktop application. The E-Commerce segment manages third-party marketplace through Shopee mobile app and websites that connects buyers and sellers. The Digital Financial Services segment includes financial services to individuals and businesses, including e-wallet and payment services through the AirPay mobile app and AirPay counter applications on mobile phones or computers. The company was founded by Xiao Dong Li, Gang Ye and Jing Ye Chen on May 8, 2009 and is headquartered in Singapore.
Company Summary : AMD
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. engages in the provision of semiconductor businesses. It operates through the following segments: Computing & Graphics, and Enterprise, Embedded and Semi-Custom. The Computing and Graphics segment includes desktop and notebook processors and chipsets, discrete and integrated graphics processing units, data center and professional GPUs and development services. The Enterprise, Embedded and Semi-Custom segment includes server and embedded processors, semi-custom System-on-Chip products, development services and technology for game consoles. The company was founded by W. J. Sanders III on May 1, 1969 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, CA.
submitted by noentic to u/noentic [link] [comments]

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Margin Trading: How It Works

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